Papers

Reliable breast ultrasound lesion segmentation requires accurate boundaries and evaluation that prevents patients or duplicate images from crossing data splits. We propose Channel Local Contrast (CLC), a compact refinement of the YOLO26 segmentation prototype head. CLC adds a fixed local high-pass residual controlled by 64 zero-initialized, bounded channel gates. Baseline and CLC were compared in five matched folds on each of four breast ultrasound datasets. BUS-BRA used patient-disjoint outer tests with separate inner validation. BUS-UCLM and BrEaST used patient-grouped validation folds; BUSI used duplicate-component groups because patient identifiers are unavailable. Group-macro Dice increased by 1.68, 3.11, 1.12, and 2.45 percentage points on BUS-BRA, BUS-UCLM, BUSI, and BrEaST, respectively. Only the BUS-BRA paired 95% confidence interval excluded zero. CLC adds 64 parameters and 0.0049 giga floating-point operations (GFLOPs). At 640 pixels, single-T4, batch-one, 16-bit floating-point (FP16) TensorRT graph times were 2.1478 ms for CLC and 2.0512 ms for baseline, excluding preprocessing and postprocessing. CLC increased group-macro Dice across all four datasets with a measured T4 forward-pass overhead of 0.0966 ms. Code: https://github.com/mfazrinizar/CLC-YOLO

A Hybrid Residual Attention Network is proposed for accurately classifying silkworm images into six different classes, including healthy and diseased states. It uses residual blocks for deep feature extraction and attention to focus on disease related features. A novel Integrated Adaptive Momentum Optimizer was introduced to enhance convergence and improve training efficiency. The dataset of silkworm images underwent preprocessing techniques such as normalization, resizing, and noise reduction, along with augmentation strategies to improve data quality and diversity. It is optimized using IAMO, achieved an accuracy of 98.67%.The integration of spatial and channel wise attention mechanisms, coupled with IAMO, significantly enhanced the model ability to recognize subtle differences between classes. Results indicate that HRAN can be used to detect disease at an early stage in sericulture, and future work will enhance scalability and efficiency in different environments.

Compressed-domain video captioning avoids full video decoding by operating directly on I-frames, motion vectors and residuals, trading a small amount of accuracy for a large gain in inference speed. CoCap established this pipeline using a CLIP vision encoder and a shallow BERT-style multimodal decoder. Both components predate substantially stronger alternatives. We ask a narrow, controlled question: how much of CoCap's accuracy is limited by these two components, and which of the two is the binding constraint? We replace the CLIP I-frame encoder with SigLIP2 and the BERT-style decoder with GPT-2, and evaluate three configurations (the original pairing, the encoder substitution alone, and both substitutions together) under identical data, sampling budget and optimisation schedule. All comparisons are made against our own reproduction of CoCap rather than its published numbers, because we train on a 4,999-clip subset of VATEX at a reduced sampling budget; absolute values are therefore not comparable with the original work. Our reproduction tracks the published result closely: CIDEr and METEOR run slightly above it (54.9 against 52.7; 23.4 against 23.2), BLEU-4 and ROUGE-L slightly below (29.7 against 31.4; 48.9 against 49.4). We attribute the differences to our evaluation subset rather than to any improvement in either direction. We find the two substitutions pull in opposite directions: SigLIP2 alone improves every metric (+4.5 CIDEr), while adding GPT-2 on top erodes that gain, because a pretrained decoder overfits 4,999 clips within two epochs. We additionally report inference latency for each configuration, since speed is the property that motivates compressed-domain captioning in the first place, and an accuracy gain purchased at a latency cost should be reported as such.

A microphone on the airframe of a small multi-rotor UAV is dominated by rotor ego-noise, so spoken flight commands arrive at negative signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). We study small-footprint keyword spotting (KWS) for a ten-word command vocabulary under real ego-noise, training on one quadrotor and testing on another. Besides per-clip accuracy we measure the streaming false-alarm rate on 4.4 h of continuous rotor noise. We compare classical noise-robust front-ends (CMN, PCEN, spectral subtraction), test-time adaptation, and two front-ends that track the per-band ego-noise floor over the two seconds preceding the decision window and either subtract it (normalisation) or feed it to the network as a second input channel (conditioning). Per clip, all front-ends look alike: +2-3 points on average, up to +14 at -15 dB. On continuous rotor noise they differ sharply. Normalising front-ends fire about ten times more often than plain log-mel at the same threshold and end up below it at a budget of one false alarm per hour (-9 points at 0 dB). Conditioning keeps the baseline's false-alarm rate and turns its gain into detections (+8 points at -10 dB over three seeds); on top of PCEN it gives the best per-clip accuracy and false-alarm rate, and a level-anchored variant is also invariant to the microphone gain. Real drone+interferer recordings expose the remaining failure mode, environmental sounds and bystander speech, which training negatives halve. A single script reproduces all on-device numbers on the NVIDIA Jetson Orin NX flight computer, where the complete pipeline costs 3 ms per 100 ms hop on the CPU.

Most existing MEG and EEG (M/EEG) visual decoding methods align brain signals with a single global embedding extracted from a pretrained visual encoder, leaving open whether intermediate patch representations, which preserve richer and more granular rich visual information, can improve representation learning. To address this question, we introduce the Residual Patch Adapter (RPA), a lightweight, modular adapter that leverages all patch tokens from an intermediate layer of a ViT visual encoder for alignment. Through extensive ablation analyses, we first show that pooling or masking patch tokens degrades the learned representation, demonstrating that retaining the full set of patch tokens is important for EEG alignment, while the CLS token provides little unique information. We then use a series of six quantitative feature analyses to show that both higher-level semantics and lower-level visual features, including color and texture, are essential for this EEG-to-image alignment. Under current protocols, our system achieves Top-1 accuracies of 95.4% within-subject and 35.5% cross-subject on THINGS-EEG2, and 65.2% and 6.7%, respectively, on THINGS-MEG, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across both datasets. Evaluations with alternative brain encoders, including pretrained EEG foundation models, demonstrate that the approach extends beyond the projection-based EEG encoder. Furthermore, we provide a plug-and-play interface that allows RPA to be replaced by convolution, attention, or ConvNeXt alternatives. Together, these findings provide significant insight into M/EEG-to-image representation learning by establishing design principles for leveraging the latent space of visual encoders, and open new directions for brain–image alignment and non-invasive brain–computer interface (BCI).

This paper develops a data-driven framework for long-term prediction of fluid–structure interaction (FSI) dynamics, focusing on the flow-induced vibration (FIV) of a flexible plate. A stiffness-conditioned neural evolution operator jointly represents the Eulerian flow field and Lagrangian structural state. The plate is represented by 101 ordered structural tokens carrying nodal coordinates and velocities, with nondimensional bending stiffness as a global conditioning variable. Bidirectional cross-attention couples fluid and structural representations within a hybrid CNN-Transformer architecture. Trained with staged multi-step autoregressive rollouts and symmetry-reflected trajectories, a single operator captures three stiffness-dependent response regimes: deflected–flapping, deflected, and flapping. The predicted trajectories preserve the principal flow structures, structural oscillations, and dominant frequencies, while blind 1000-step rollouts remain bounded. The operator also interpolates to stiffness values excluded from training. To reduce sensitivity to under-resolved near-wall gradients in force reconstruction, we develop a differentiable aerodynamic-force module based on the derivative-moment transformation (DMT). Conventional wall-stress surface integrals are replaced by an enclosed 2D curve integral around the core vortex region, enabling accurate reconstruction of lift and drag. A Signed Distance Function (SDF) and smoothed Dirac-delta formulation make the integration fully differentiable while preserving gradient flow. The proposed framework provides an accurate and differentiable surrogate for stiffness-dependent FSI dynamics, enabling efficient parameter studies and future stiffness optimization for flow-energy-harvesting applications.

Survival prediction for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) demands models that are both accurate and interpretable, yet existing approaches treat these objectives as com- peting, where performant models sacrifice transparency, while interpretable models accept degraded predictive power. We argue that this trade-off is not inherent. Graph neural net- works offer a structural foundation for extracting interpretable, explainable representations without compromising discriminative ability. Furthermore, current methods typically rely on a single imaging modality, underutilizing the complementary information available across multi-modal MRI and clinical metadata. We propose a multi-modal framework that inte- grates three components to address both objectives simultaneously: (1) a sheaf hypergraph neural network that captures higher-order relationships among tissue patches through direc- tional, asymmetric message passing; (2) a concept bottleneck layer that compresses learned representations into clinically grounded concepts, enforcing ante-hoc interpretability; and (3) an extension sufficiency test (EST) regularizer that penalizes unfaithful explanations during training, ensuring that model explanations genuinely reflect the internal decision process. Clinical and genomic features are incorporated through gated fusion, preserving the dominant prognostic signal of molecular markers while retaining concept-level traceabil- ity. Evaluated on 593 patients from the UPenn-GBM dataset under 5-fold cross-validation, our framework achieves a concordance index of 0.643 with the lowest fold-level variance among all compared models (std = 0.015). To our knowledge, this is the first work to unify sheaf hypergraph convolution, concept bottleneck supervision, and EST regularization for interpretable survival prediction from brain MRI

High-order isogeometric discretizations produce a small number of non-physical outlier modes at the top of the discrete spectrum. These modes can pollute the numerical solution in wave propagation and structural dynamics. Most existing remedies modify the spatial discretization through outlier-free bases, mass lumping, subspace projection, and related constructions. We introduce MIISO (Modal Integrators for Isogeometric Stabilization of Outliers), a family of exponential Rosenbrock-Krylov methods of orders two through six that suppress the outliers in the time integrator and leave the spatial discretization unchanged. We construct a non-holomorphic amplification map by blending a Padé approximation that preserves physical oscillatory modes with a Pade approximation that damps high frequencies, with the blend placed at the known spectral location of the outliers. For orders three and higher the damping approximant is repaired so that the method is unconditionally A-stable. Physical modes receive no numerical dissipation and the outliers are driven to zero. The outlier handling and the method steps are fully matrix-free, and the method extends to nonlinear problems. Numerical experiments recover the predicted orders, match spatial outlier removal without changing the discretization, show lower cost than generalized-alpha at matched accuracy and in scaling, and demonstrate the method on nonlinear and three-dimensional problems.

Data assimilation aims to infer the state of complex dynamical systems based on observational data. However, accurate inference of the multimodal posteriors induced by nonlinear or non-injective observation operators remains a key challenge under high-dimensional and sparse observation conditions. Ensemble filters scale to high dimensions but are confined by restrictive distributional assumptions, while training-free generative filters (e.g., EnSF, EnFF) alleviate this limitation but may introduce structural errors and hinder information propagation under sparse observations. To address these issues, we propose a training-free, asymptotically exact posterior transport method. Firstly, a covariance-aware posterior transport scheme is designed, which embeds the forecast cross-covariance into flow-based transport and accurately recovers unobserved states while preserving the non-Gaussian posterior structure. Furthermore, the method combines a tractable observation-adaptive proposal with posterior correction, ensuring accurate approximation of the nonlinear posterior distribution. Finally, we establish the corresponding posterior flow theory, from which the asymptotic exactness of the proposed method relative to finite-ensemble surrogates and the Wasserstein error bound are derived. Experiments on Double-Well, Lorenz-96, and Kolmogorov flow show that the proposed method captures complex posterior structure and remains accurate under sparse, nonlinear, and non-injective observations. In the sparse non-injective setting, it reduces RMSE by 56% relative to the best baseline.

Self-calibrating monitors adapt their threshold online to guarantee a prescribed long-run false-alarm rate under arbitrary drift. We compute the price of that guarantee, stating every law with its exact domain of validity. First, the guarantee is an accounting identity, insensitive to what the monitor is meant to detect. Two evidence identities make the cost exact for the online quantile tracker: a persistent step of height $\delta$ yields excess alarm mass within one alarm of $\delta/\eta$, and exactly $\delta/\eta$ pathwise when $\delta$ is a lattice multiple of the gain $\eta$; a ramp of slope $c$ yields a stationary excess rate of exactly $c/\eta$, independent of accumulated size, up to a boundary $c=\eta(1-\alpha)$ coinciding with the alarm-rate cap. Second, the certificate's own fluctuation obeys an exact law: the windowed alarm rate has standard deviation of order $1/L$, not the binomial $1/\sqrt{L}$, since the windowed mass telescopes to a difference of a tight internal state; the closed-form constant is validated with no fitted parameter. Detectors calibrated on the binomial scale are miscalibrated by $\sqrt{\eta\varphi(q_0)L}$, and correct calibration turns detection windows from quadratic to linear in the inverse fault speed. Third, any monitor required to tolerate a drift class $\mathcal{D}$ is blind, at any horizon and for any rule, to every fault in $\mathcal{D}-\mathcal{D}$; the proof is a deliberately elementary two-point argument and the contribution is the object it identifies: for speed-bounded classes the blind set is exactly the doubled-speed class, and the tracker absorbs a speed class fixed by its own gain, so that under a certification regime declaring absorbed drift normal, the monitor manufactures $\mathcal{D}$. An exact Gaussian projection bound, sharper than Pinsker and never vacuous, quantifies power outside it.

A robot policy is trained with one of two action parameterizations: absolute joint targets, or deltas relative to the current state. The choice is a live engineering decision in robot learning, and a world model conditioned on actions inherits it silently. We show the inheritance is catastrophic. A latent dynamics model trained on one parameterization and handed the identical commanded trajectory written in the other collapses: retrieval degrades by 2.6-13.4x across three robot datasets and two morphologies, goal-conditioned action selection falls from 53% to 15%, and on PushT the two beliefs about the same future are near-orthogonal (cos = 0.067, worst case -0.377), so the predictor does not degrade gracefully, it answers a different question. This is not a distribution-shift artifact in the usual sense: the two encodings are mutually reconstructible at R^2 = 0.996 given the joint input, so no information is lost, and we give the test that separates a valid re-parameterization from a lossy summary or a sensor swap. The test rejected three of the four axes we proposed. The defect lives in the action channel, which the invariance literature for visual models does not examine: work there concerns crops, jitter and camera pose, while the parameterization of the commands goes unaudited. The repair is averaging over the two encodings, and where it goes matters. Averaging the objective restores task performance by itself; averaging the outputs, safe for probabilities by concavity, is not available for direction-valued prediction, where the normalized mean can score below every member of the orbit. What objective-averaging leaves behind is the tail: worst-case agreement stays at 0.78, a disagreement penalty closes it to 0.995, and over a latent rollout it is the difference between a worst case that erodes and one that holds. On PushT, averaging alone does not repair the axis.

The Fresnel wave surface governs the propagation of light in a transparent biaxial crystal. It is a special Kummer quartic, and we identify it exactly. Over the complex numbers the wave surface of a crystal is the Kummer surface of the Jacobian of an explicit genus-two curve branched at the signed square roots of the three principal permittivities. This Jacobian is isogenous, by an isogeny with kernel of order four, to a product of two elliptic curves. One elliptic curve carries the three permittivities, and the other carries the optic-axis angle. The physical family is Zariski dense in the locus of genus-two curves with an extra involution, and its automorphism strata are explicit. The identification instantiates a task-aware quotient, which identifies parameters that differ by a nuisance transformation and carries invariant coordinates and explicit strata. For biaxial crystals, two ratios of the permittivities form a complete invariant of the wave surface up to rotation and rescaling, and the four real nodes are given in closed form. At an interface the candidate transmitted waves are the roots of a quartic of exact degree four. Its real-root count, root order, and repeated-root events are decided by exact algebraic predicates, and along the generic single-node encounters of the paper its discriminant vanishes to second order. Floating-point solvers drop forward transmitted modes near the optic axes, and the certified solver does not. On exact equivalence classes, learned models on quotient coordinates are invariant and more accurate than models on raw tensors, while learned root-count predicates fail near the optic axes.

A fundamental challenge in deploying vision models is domain shift, which arises when training and test data follow different distributions, leading to degraded performance. This challenge is amplified when the same semantic concept appears under distinct visual forms, such as photographs and sketches, where visual similarity is weak despite semantic correspondence. Existing unsupervised domain-adaptation methods aim to align distributions across domains but often ignore semantic relationships among samples of the same class. To address this issue, this paper introduces SPACE, a method that exploits the semantic structure of CLIP's vision-language space for domain adaptation. The key idea is to use text descriptions as semantic anchors by applying Singular Value Decomposition to CLIP embeddings of class descriptions, yielding an orthogonal basis that captures semantic relationships among categories. Visual features from both domains are projected into this semantic subspace, aligning images based on meaning rather than appearance.

We study numerical observables relevant to delocalization in the three-dimensional Manhattan mirror model, also known as the K-lattice. Our principal experiment separates the locations of transmitting boundary channels from the routing between them. We derive an exact conditional comparison that preserves all transmission and reflection aperture sets, and find a statistically resolved deficit of physical transmission relative to this comparison. Nearby transmitting channels are themselves suppressed relative to a uniform subset with the same cardinality. A second experiment resolves the contribution of repeated vertices by their return age. The squared norm of the signed old-memory remainder is consistent with an inverse-square-root decay over the measured range. Annular experiments quantify decreasing continuation losses, while an initially apparent history dependence fails independent replication. Finally, a periodic configuration has a connected auxiliary contact graph but only finite routing cycles. These results identify estimates on reflection routing and adaptively selected revisit charges that may assist a rigorous proof. They do not establish an infinite-volume delocalized phase.

We study two-timescale decision systems in which a planning layer periodically supplies a continuation-value function to a real-time optimizer that allocates arriving resources, with inventory placement as our motivating application. We propose an end-to-end reinforcement learning (RL) method for learning this function using proximal residual value functions, which combine a strictly convex potential of post-decision inventory with a learned convex residual. This general form yields a well-posed optimization layer that supports end-to-end differentiation while preserving an explicit convex objective for real-time execution. We characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions under which a smooth value function yields decisions that are consistent across the planning and execution timescales. In an offline simulation using historical inventory arrival and demand patterns from a large e-commerce retailer, learned proximal residual value functions reduce total routing and transfer cost relative to a historical-production-system proxy by 5.0%.

An automated fact-checking system returns a label: the claim is true, or it is false. In many such systems the verdict remains the primary output. What is generally missing is a record of which document settled the question, of what would have had to be different for the verdict to change, or of whether the same claim, reworded, would have been judged the same way. We call the missing piece a warrant: a separate statement of what was guaranteed and on what grounds. Formal methods produce evidence of this kind, and regulation is beginning to ask for it, since the Digital Services Act and the AI Act both call for auditable evidence about how systems behave. Surveys of automated fact-checking are usually organised by pipeline stage, and treat logic as one technique among many. We organise the field by what is being formalised instead, which gives five levels: the claim, the reasoning, the system doing the checking, the ecosystem the claim spreads through, and the regulatory obligation. Sorting 121 works into those levels, two patterns stand out. Most of the relevant formal machinery already exists, but it was built for other domains and has rarely been applied here, and the gap is widest for verifying the checking system itself. Several stages of the routine professional fact-checkers follow also have no stated correctness criterion, and two of them, writing a claim in checkable form and correcting a verdict already published, are not formally specified in any work we coded. We close with open problems, each with a suggested first step.

Bayesian graph alignment estimates correspondence probabilities, but convergence of an alignment-score trace need not imply accurate correspondence marginals. We audit this gap on 240 new exact graph pairs from four source families, 240 larger pairs with 20-100 vertices, and a separate 60-case exact implementation check. Under an explicit edge-flip likelihood, we compare three samplers and score, marginal, indicator, categorical, and classifier-based diagnostics. Marginal disagreement improves error discrimination over score R-hat for the exact informed sampler, but its improvement for vanilla local sampling is uncertain. Assignment-based R* and short indicator panels are competitive; no diagnostic dominates across samplers and endpoints. At larger sizes, diagnostics predict subsequent marginal changes, not posterior error, and classification performance depends on the drift threshold. Disjoint-window and held-out-chain checks attenuate but preserve positive associations. Only 22 of 240 original reference sets pass an agreement screen. On forty failure-selected cases, eightfold SMC particle escalation does not resolve disagreement, whereas additional rejuvenation helps. Longer informed runs remain unstable. An elementary feasible-alignment bound demonstrates severely unrepresentative SMC and informed-chain scores in concentrated 100-vertex cases, independently of approximate reference consensus. We also exhibit common-start chains with near-zero disagreement despite exact marginal error near .967. These results support assignment-sensitive auditing while identifying limits of finite budgets, diagnostic rankings, and reference agreement as evidence of accuracy.

Cross-lingual information retrieval (CLIR) is increasingly important in multi-national industries, where critical technical evidence may exist in a different language than the query. However, existing benchmarks do not adequately capture domain-specific cross-lingual retrieval or the retrieval-depth and recoverability failures that aggregate recall hides. In this work, we benchmark CLIR in the chemical domain, with a focus on patent data. We construct a multilingual dataset from Google Patents and the European Patent Office (EPO) data, spanning five languages (covering major Eastern and Western languages) and reflecting the diversity and complexity of real-world industrial documentation. Using this dataset, we systematically evaluate eight state-of-the-art embedding models for cross-lingual retrieval. Our results show a substantial performance gap between monolingual and cross-lingual settings: for the best-performing model, Recall@10 drops from 0.72 to 0.53 in cross-lingual setting. Retrieval depth also degrades significantly, with relevant documents ranked lower across languages in cross-lingual scenarios. Furthermore, some multilingual embedding models that perform strongly in monolingual settings exhibit sharp declines when queries and documents are in different languages, providing practical insights for model selection in cross-lingual use cases. These findings highlight critical limitations of current approaches and emphasize the need for more robust cross-lingual retrieval methods in domain-specific settings. Our benchmark provides actionable insights for model selection and establishes a controlled diagnostic evaluation framework for CLIR over industrial technical text. Data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/MohammadKhodadad/Multi-Lingual-QAC.

For a propositional proof system $\mathcal{P}$ and a polynomial-time function $G: \{0, 1\}^n \to \{0, 1\}^N$ ($N > 10n$), we say that $G$ is a *proof complexity generator* against $\mathcal{P}$ if $\mathcal{P}$ cannot efficiently prove the (suitably encoded) statement "$y\not\in\mathrm{Range}(G)$" for every $y \in \{0, 1\}^N$, and $G$ is a *demi-bits generator* against $\mathcal{P}$ if $\mathcal{P}$ cannot efficiently prove the statement "$y \not\in\mathrm{Range}(G)$" for a noticeable fraction of $y \in \{0, 1\}^N$. As can be seen from the definitions, proof complexity generators are qualitatively stronger objects than demi-bits generators. Our main result is that, perhaps counter-intuitively, every demi-bits generator "contains" exponentially many proof complexity generators. In fact, a random subset of output bits of a demi-bits generator forms a proof complexity generator with constant probability. This result is an extremely simple corollary of Pajor's Lemma (a strengthening of the well-known Sauer–Shelah Lemma). This result allows us to exhibit the hardness of the Range Avoidance problem ($\text{Avoid}$) in several new, restricted settings of interest. Along the way, we introduce the notion of *zero-error disperser families* that can transform demi-bits generators into proof complexity generators, and show that this family can be computed by projections (i.e., without any circuit complexity overhead). Using a different instantiation of this family, we construct proof complexity generators from *barely non-trivial* demi-bits generators $G: \{0, 1\}^n \to \{0, 1\}^N$, where the number of hard-to-prove statements of the form "$y \not \in \mathrm{Range}(G)$" just slightly exceeds $2^n$ (which is the number of *false* statements of this form).

Agent-Integrated Software (AIS) embeds an intelligent agent in a conventional application, supporting both human operations and agent actions. Human operations let users make precise changes and inspect results, while agent actions carry out routine or multi-step tasks. These complementary roles make coexistence a likely long-term feature of many software systems. Human operations and agent actions affect the same software state and can use one another's results. Therefore, security policies must remain effective across both paths. We argue that AIS security must be assessed at the level of the whole software system. Protecting the agent and the conventional software core separately does not establish that they are secure together. To guide security analysis of AIS as a whole, we organize the problems arising from this coexistence into four categories: context misuse, authorization violation, execution control, and effect integrity. Using these categories, we examine how current practices address the security problems in AIS and where their protection remains limited. Building on this analysis, we identify research opportunities in preserving information provenance, enforcing policy across operation paths, maintaining valid authorization over time, and managing persistent effects and recovery. This resulting perspective provides a conceptual framework for understanding and improving the security of AIS.

Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual hourly prices. Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures. Using five years of out-of-sample data from Germany and Spain, we obtain accuracy improvements of up to 19.7% and profit gains of up to 10.4% relative to unreconciled hourly price forecasts. The gains persist even for a highly accurate pretrained TabPFN foundation model. Our results demonstrate that exploiting coherent relationships between economically relevant forecasting targets can improve both predictive accuracy and decision value, and that better statistical forecasts do not necessarily imply better economic decisions.

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge in causal inference from observational data. This article develops a mixture-learning perspective, viewing latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that induce mixture structure in observed data. Under suitable structural and identifiability assumptions, recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms enables estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. Using variants of Bernoulli mixtures as a running example, we contextualize mixture-learning techniques and their structural assumptions, and connect them to causal inference in panel-data settings, including latent factor models and synthetic interventions.We then consider high-dimensional exponential-family mixtures with dependent outcome trajectories, moving beyond counterfactual means to model counterfactual distributions. We situate this perspective relative to complementary approaches for unobserved confounding. Together, these ideas provide a bridge between mixture learning and causal inference, connecting recent advances in high-dimensional mixture learning to scalable identification and estimation of causal effects while raising new challenges for mixture learning.

Automated kernel bug discovery has advanced rapidly. Continuous fuzzing and static analysis systems, such as syzbot, now expose Linux kernel bugs at a scale that downstream processes struggle to absorb. Yet a crash report is only the beginning. Before a bug is eliminated, it must be triaged, understood, patched, validated, reviewed, integrated, and often backported. These later stages remain far less automated, creating a persistent gap between bug discovery and patch deployment. This SoK systematizes the Linux kernel bug lifecycle from discovery to deployment. We organize prior work and production systems into five stages: discovery, triage, patch generation, patch validation, and integration. We explain the resulting automation gradient through kernel-specific challenges such as concurrency, implicit invariants, cross-syscall state, hardware dependence, lack of fault isolation, and architecture/configuration multiplicity. We further ground the analysis in a measurement of real syzbot-fixed bugs. The data shows that the crash-to-patch gap is not merely a backlog of unfixed reports but a structural failure mode of the repair pipeline: even after being fixed, bugs often remain open for weeks, require review-driven patch revisions, or lack reproducers that current repair and validation systems assume. This exposes a mismatch between where kernel-security automation is mature and where bug closure actually breaks down. These findings expose a deeper mismatch: today's repair and validation techniques often assume reliable reproducers, localized root causes, and checkable correctness oracles, yet these are precisely the artifacts missing from many real kernel bug reports. Closing the crash-to-patch gap, therefore, requires treating such artifacts as outputs to be produced, not prerequisites to be assumed.

LLM explainers are increasingly attached to autonomous agents as runtime oversight, with operators reading a generated account of the agent's beliefs and actions rather than its internal state. We audit the account itself, pairing an Active Inference (AIF) agent that tracks German grid demand and adjusts generation with an LLM explainer on three backends (GPT-4o, Claude-3-Opus, Gemini), and probing the pair with three black-box triggers. Corrupting the observation stream by 600 MW per step moves the agent's posterior by 490 MW, roughly 0.9% of grid capacity. None of the 30 explanations produced during the injection flag anything under a stated rubric, and each narrates the corrupted belief fluently. On timesteps where the agent takes an objectively wrong action, all three explainers produce a sycophantic rationalization 80-95% of the time (n = 20 per backend). Attacker-controlled text in the observation metadata field steers the explainer, with susceptibility differing by provider and data exfiltration succeeding on all three. We propose mitigations for each failure but do not evaluate them. In every failure we observed, the explanation was fluent and wrong. Moreover, nothing in the explainer architecture checks whether an explanation is true before an operator acts on it. Testing the explainer therefore belongs in any audit of an agentic deployment.

The Deck-of-cards-based Ordinal Regression (DOR) infers a value function from a ranking of reference alternatives in which the Decision Maker (DM) inserts blank cards between consecutive levels to express preference intensity. DOR, and its stochastic extension (SMAA-DOR), treat these answers as hard constraints defining a set of compatible value functions. We propose B-DOR, a probabilistic reformulation of DOR in which each pair of adjacent levels yields an ordinal observation, the declared direction and the number of cards, modelled through a cumulative-link likelihood that relates the number of blank cards to the latent value difference between alternatives. Two Bayesian inference algorithms are proposed: BAYES-DOR samples the whole posterior distribution by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; FTRL-DOR tracks the maximum a posteriori estimate by constrained convex optimization. Moreover, through a multi-step elicitation process, elicitation can be spread over several short sessions reducing the cognitive burden on the DM. Both algorithms enjoy logarithmic regret bounds for prediction that hold for any sequence of DM responses and that guide the choice of the prior hyperparameters. A Monte Carlo study over 768 configurations shows that accuracy grows with the number of sessions, that blank cards add significant information over preference directions alone, that both algorithms maintain good performance under inconsistent answers, and that both outperform DOR and SMAA-DOR. An illustrative application to Italian regional healthcare performance demonstrates the practical applicability of the approach for building composite indicators.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based applications are increasingly deployed across domains including customer service, education, and mobility. These systems are prone to inaccurate, fictitious, or harmful responses, and their vast, high-dimensional input space makes systematic testing particularly challenging. In this paper, we present a search-based testing framework for LLM-based applications that incorporates failure diversity as an explicit optimization objective. Building on a discretization along stylistic, content-related, and perturbation dimensions, our framework maintains an archive of generated tests and rewards distance from that archive, while a repopulation operator periodically replaces non-failing tests in the population to sustain exploration. The repopulation operator is parameterized by its sampling strategy: replacement candidates are drawn either uniformly or by greedy distance maximization, two settings we compare empirically. We evaluate both against several baselines across three case studies—LLM safety, in-car navigation, and in-vehicle function control—covering five systems under test, eight LLMs, and 18 distinct test configurations, with over one million executed tests. Our results show that all guided variants detect substantially more failures than random and combinatorial search in nearly all configurations. Among them, diversified search detects fewer failures, but covers a broader range of failure types in all case studies, with greedy repopulation offering the best tradeoff.

Green's function based operator approximation offers an efficient route for solving linear partial differential equations under varying boundary conditions and source terms. Once the Green's function is learned, solutions for new configurations are obtained through integration rather than by solving the differential equation again. Existing Green's function learning methods face two structural challenges. The first is the singular behavior of the Green's function near the source point, which places a difficult approximation burden on neural networks. The second is the absence of explicit consistency between the learned Green's function and its gradient, although both quantities enter the integral solution representation directly. This work proposes SDC-GON, a Singular Decomposition and Consistency-Regularized Green's Operator Network that addresses both challenges within a unified framework. The Green's function is decomposed into an analytically known singular component and a smooth correction learned by the network, so that the neural approximation targets only the regular part of the response kernel. A self-consistency loss enforces agreement between the gradient and the autodifferentiation gradient of the smooth correction. The method is evaluated on two dimensional Poisson, three dimensional heat conduction, heterogeneous reaction diffusion, and Stokes benchmarks, consistently outperforming the compared baselines across all cases. On the heterogeneous pipe benchmark, SDC-GON achieves a testing error of $3.70\times10^{-4}$ with a smaller network architecture, compared with $9.60\times10^{-4}$ for the same-width baseline and $4.63\times10^{-4}$ for a larger configuration, demonstrating that structural improvements are more effective than increasing model size.

Reasoning language models are trained to produce solutions, not to refuse them, and this bias persists when the problem they are handed is false. Asked to prove a corrupted theorem, a strong model will typically comply and produce a confident derivation of something untrue. We present Euston, an 8B mathematical claim-verification model trained to resist exactly this. Training data were generated with GraphSynth, a probabilistic factor-graph generator that couples attribute-level diversity to decode-time structural masking and span-synchronized verification, yielding 3{,}026 matched true/corrupted statement pairs (6,052 statements) drawn from arXiv papers spanning 2010–2025. We fine-tuned DeepSeek-R1-8B with GRPO under a rule-based, zero-API reward for 189 steps on four H100 GPUs. On a balanced 200-true/200-false held-out split, balanced accuracy rises from 29.50% to 63.75% and the discrimination gap—the difference between the rate of calling false statements false and the rate of calling true statements false moves from -0.5% (z=-0.1) to +27.5% (z=+6.0). Critically, the gain is not purchased with general mathematical ability: AIME 2026 accuracy under official semantics is 65.00% against a 69.17% base, a difference of -4.17% that is not statistically significant, whereas an earlier run of the same recipe on a smaller GraphSynth corpus collapsed to 40.00%. Median response length also falls from 19,217 to 18,296 tokens and the truncation rate from 25.8% to 8.3%, so the improvement does not come from thinking longer. We report the result together with the confounds that bound its interpretation, principally the all-false composition of the official evaluation sets and the low precision implied at realistic error prevalence.

Benchmark scores increasingly influence the development, marketing, and selection of large language models (LLMs). Yet an overall score is interpretable only in relation to the system tested, the questions included, and the conditions of evaluation. This perspective examines five connected limitations of general LLM rankings: differences between evaluated and publicly available systems; commercial incentives and dependencies in external evaluation; benchmark saturation, defective tests, and data contamination; models exploiting scoring procedures; and the limited relevance of general scores to users' tasks. Documented cases illustrate why these problems require different responses. I argue for evaluation procedures that disclose the tested configuration, validate questions and successful task completion, report performance alongside cost and execution time, and make the scope of generalization explicit. I then discuss Isotanta, a crowdsourced benchmarking platform, as a practical example of contributed questions and repeated evaluation. A larger question pool may improve task coverage, while repeated sampling can improve the stability of estimates on that pool; neither guarantees validity or personalization. The paper distinguishes the platform's current shared ranking from proposed task-specific and user-provided evaluations. Its central argument is that model selection requires evidence about performance on the intended work, not simply a high position on a general leaderboard.

Many modern systems involve the strategic interaction of multiple agents. In such settings, observed actions typically reflect equilibrium behavior under utilities that are only partially known. Recovering these hidden utilities from data - the central goal of inverse game theory - is key for prediction, counterfactual analysis, and mechanism design. However, existing approaches based on inverse variational inequalities are highly sensitive to noisy and inconsistent equilibrium observations, thus limiting their applicability. In this paper, we resolve this issue by introducing a game-theoretic suboptimality loss that measures the aggregate utility gain players could obtain by unilaterally deviating from an observed strategy profile. First, we show that this loss is convex and admits an efficient decomposition into player-wise best-responses. Second, we show this loss is sandwiched between the predictability loss and the inverse variational inequality loss, making it a tractable surrogate for equilibrium prediction. Third, we develop a mirror descent algorithm to minimize it and demonstrate on a heterogeneous networked Cournot competition that our approach remains accurate under noisy observations and inconsistent equilibrium data while inverse variational inequality methods produce degenerate estimates.