$MKT market

Latest papers

1. One Fabrication Is Enough: A Fake News Article Changes the Forecasts of LLM Forecasting Systems cs.CR · 11 Nov · 1 hit

   …the retriever or its queries. We evaluate how far this attack reaches on stock questions and real prediction-market questions. Once the article is in the model's context, it reverses 74% to 82% of the forecasts that…

2. Beyond Named Mechanisms: Economic Institutions as a Design Space for Artificial Agents cs.MA · 11 Nov · 1 hit

   Multiagent research inherited its economic vocabulary of auctions, markets, prices, bargaining, and matching from a single observed case: human societies. Those institutions…

3. Who Moved the Frontier? Paying Open Frontier Challenges with Free Identities cs.GT · 11 Nov · 1 hit

   …one solver's steps under two identities would have taken first and second prize. We consider a prediction-market rule, proposed for machine-learning contests, that pays each accepted step for the progress it adds;…

4. The Price of Anarchy in Markets for Lemons cs.GT · 11 Nov · 2 hits

   …The key idea in our analysis is to relate equilibrium gains from trade to proposer profits in an auxiliary market with independent private values.

5. Second-Best Trade Is Half Efficient in Multidimensional Markets cs.GT · 10 Nov · 2 hits

   …that at least half of the first-best gains from trade can always be achieved in multidimensional two-sided markets with additive values and costs and arbitrary downward-closed feasibility constraints. The guarantee…

6. A Strategic Freight Market Model for Liner Shipping: Pricing, Entry, and Endogenous Service Choice math.OC · 10 Nov · 4 hits

   …through changes in the service set. When maritime services are close substitutes, entrants avoid overlapping markets and competition can reproduce monopoly outcomes. The results illustrate mechanisms rather than…

7. Fine-Tuning an Order-Flow Foundation Model for Sub-Second Forecasting q-fin.TR · 10 Nov · 1 hit

   …moves are smaller than the bid-ask spread plus fees, so the natural applications are in execution and market making. These results indicate that a pretrained generative model can be turned into a competitive…

8. Forecast Projection and Decision Regret: Theory and Evidence from Battery Arbitrage math.OC · 10 Nov · 1 hit

   …mechanism for other problems with a conservation constraint. On 1,158 holdout days of the Indian day-ahead market, an equal-weight average of three statistical forecasts outperforms the five decision-focused variants…