$BAYS bayesian

Latest papers

1. Bayesian Learning to Select Fair Classifiers cs.LG · 14 Oct · 2 hits

   …a sensitive attribute, and that allows for delayed observations of true class labels. We formulate this as a Bayesian multi-armed bandit problem using Thompson Sampling, explicitly balancing accuracy and fairness. We…

2. From Human Corrections to Learned Segmentations: A Critical Mathematical Review of Information, Learning, and Human Effort cs.LG · 14 Oct · 1 hit

   …account of target information, predictive error, response predictability, and human work. An exact Bayesian update converts evaluation-label information into expected log-loss improvement; an excess-risk…

3. Exact Joint MAP Decoding for Unknown Load and Message Counts in Orthogonal Unsourced Random Access cs.IT · 14 Oct · 2 hits

   …solutions for all candidate loads are nested prefixes of one greedy chain. Scoring these prefixes with the Bayesian posterior terms jointly estimates the load and message-count vector in $O(M+K_{\max}\log M)$ time.…

4. Contagious Misinterpretations: Social Learning with Shared Interpretations cs.SI · 14 Oct · 1 hit

   …and it is revised only through conversation, not by confronting it with the observed data. Standard non-Bayesian social learning captures only belief-sharing and keeps the likelihoods private. We study what…

5. Regime Detection in Latent Factor Models -- A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach q-fin.MF · 14 Oct · 2 hits

   …on inferred regime changes. We formulate online regime detection with latent factors and hidden regimes as a Bayesian decision problem balancing false alarms, detection delay, and misclassification. Since posterior…

6. In-Context Batch Black-box Optimization via Flow Matching cs.LG · 14 Oct · 1 hit

   …construction must identify multiple promising regions while avoiding redundant evaluations, and conventional Bayesian optimization can require increasingly difficult batch-selection procedures as the batch size grows.…

7. What Do Foundation Models for Market Microstructure Learn? A Controlled Study with Synthetic Limit Order Books cs.LG · 14 Oct · 1 hit

   …serve as references. Measured against them, next-token pretraining on order flow implements amortized Bayesian inference over market regimes. The learned predictive matches the exact Bayes optimum to within a…

8. Predicting future insurance markets: Simulation of technology adoption paths with a Bayesian Bass model stat.AP · 14 Oct · 1 hit

   Technological progress can give rise to new loss exposures or reduce existing risks. In either case, it…