Papers

Regime-switching multi-factor models are widely used in quantitative finance, but filtering does not by itself determine when an agent should act on inferred regime changes. We formulate online regime detection with latent factors and hidden regimes as a Bayesian decision problem balancing false alarms, detection delay, and misclassification. Since posterior regime probabilities are generally non-Markovian, the problem is represented as a measure-valued optimal stopping problem and approximated using particle filtering with Monte Carlo dynamic programming. A single-change-point Heston model provides a benchmark. With observed variance, the problem reduces to a two-dimensional Markov free-boundary problem, while under latent variance decisions are based on the filtered posterior measure. Numerical experiments in Heston and regime-switching Vasicek models show that the latent-information procedure can outperform feasible plug-in rules.

We study the route-set allocation problem between end nodes in capacity-constrained flow networks with transfer costs. We introduce an origin–destination (OD) bidding language, in which a participant bids for bounded conic combinations of inlet–outlet–quantity licences and the mechanism performs the routing through a network-flow optimising winner-determination problem. We then study payment rules for the OD mechanism. Under a restricted model with openly and uniformly priced sources and bidders who are indifferent to the source of the gas, the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) payment is core-stable; the key structural fact is that in this regime some optimal aggregate flows never use a physical pipe in both directions, so the winner-determination problem reduces to a single-commodity network flow whose value is submodular in the set of active bidders. If source access is allowed to depend on the individual consumer – a realistic feature, e.g. when gas deals are embedded in bilateral political bargaining – the reduction fails and VCG payments may lie strictly outside the core. For this general model we propose a dual (nodal) pricing rule derived from the shadow prices of the flow-conservation constraints, and prove it is always core-stable, at the cost of dominant-strategy incentive compatibility. Illustrative examples accompany each result.

We develop a data-driven approach to dynamic portfolio selection that combines vine-copula simulation with reinforcement learning. The investor has constant relative risk aversion and maximises expected terminal utility with a running penalty on the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of one-period losses. We estimate a conditional vine model from historical returns and use it to generate joint scenarios for CVaR evaluation and conditional paths for training a recurrent portfolio policy. Under uniform local derivative bounds, we propagate edgewise pair-copula parameter errors through the conditional transforms to obtain power-law stability bounds in Hellinger distance and total variation. In a finite-horizon investment model, we combine these estimates with a marginal and structural approximation budget to bound policy values, optimal values and the true-market loss of policies selected under a fitted model, with separate simulation and numerical optimisation terms. On a seven-asset panel comprising US and Chinese equities and gold, the selected ensemble of ten trained policies achieves a compound annual growth rate of 34.13% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.31 over 22 complete monthly holding periods, exceeding the corresponding values of six classical and vine-based benchmarks. Combining simulated and historical training data reduces monthly target-to-target turnover by 41.5% relative to training on historical data alone, while maintaining comparable growth.

We study finite-maturity American puts in the Heston model without the Feller condition. At positive variance, the exercise boundary is smooth and strictly decreasing in remaining maturity and variance. At zero variance, the endpoint is locally Lipschitz in remaining maturity, the boundary moves with bounded speed in maturity uniformly down to zero variance, and it extends continuously to the axis. Each boundary slice at positive maturity has a regular $C^1$ closure tangent to the zero-variance axis, its stock threshold has variance derivative tending to minus infinity, and both partial derivatives of the inverse boundary graph vanish along the slice. The continuation premium at the axis contact stock is of order variance, and as a consequence smooth fit fails in the variance direction at the axis. At expiry the whole boundary, including its axis edge, converges to the strike. We give quantitative boundary gap bounds, an exact limiting weighted boundary Hessian, and vertical identities retaining the maturity term. Exact boundary gap equivalents remain open.

Social scientists routinely convert text into covariates like topic shares, ideal points or sentiment scores, and insert them into statistical models of interest. This two-step design is convenient, but it is rarely guided by theory: little tells the analyst which text-based covariates to construct or include. Each approach embodies contestable measurement choices, and competing operationalizations of the same construct can support different conclusions, so a single research question gives rise to a menu of competing regression models. Which text constructed covariates belong in a model, and in what functional form, is thus a problem of model uncertainty. We propose spike-and-slab generalized additive models (SSGAMs), which jointly select covariates and determine whether their effects are linear or nonlinear. We illustrate the approach with the communication of a powerful unelected institution, asking which of 45 competing text indicators from 224 monthly European Central Bank press conferences, spanning late 2002 to mid-2025, track professional inflation expectations. A sparse set is selected; widely used alternatives, and every tested nonlinear effect, carry no incremental information.

Multivariate Hawkes models are widely used to measure endogenous interactions in event data, but latent common signals can generate apparent excitation even without structural interaction. We characterize the resulting linear projection and construct stable, nonnegative Hawkes processes that share the mean intensity and Bartlett spectrum of common-signal models despite having different excitation mechanisms. This establishes a concrete form of second-order non-identification. We derive integrated third-order cumulants for Hawkes processes with Cox immigration and establish generic local identification of normalized structural parameters in two- and three-dimensional systems. An exact-equivalence Monte Carlo experiment demonstrates how third-order information can distinguish mechanisms with identical second-order structure, while revealing substantial finite-sample limitations under weak signals. For a restricted parametric family, we develop Whittle estimation from binned counts, establish consistency and asymptotic normality under appropriate identification conditions, and construct feasible sandwich standard errors accounting for estimated mean intensities. Simulations assess structural recovery and inference accuracy. An application to cryptocurrency transactions illustrates the sensitivity of inferred excitation to model specification and the limitations of structural interpretation based on spectral fit alone.

Physics-informed neural networks provide a flexible framework for learning parametric PDE solution families without labeled data, yet preserving accurate derivatives across heterogeneous regimes remains challenging. Structured neural solvers offer compact representations, but restrictive conditional parameterizations can limit adaptation across the solution family. We introduce BeTINN, a structured conditional architecture extending time-induced modulation through multi-directional time-parameter conditioning and a joint residual pathway. We evaluate BeTINN on the Heston stochastic-volatility PDE, a demanding parametric problem with mixed derivatives and economically relevant first- and second-order sensitivities. BeTINN improves joint accuracy across normalized option value and key sensitivity metrics relative to our baselines. Controlled ablations characterize the roles of its architectural components. We further find that validation physics loss is informative but does not fully determine differential fidelity, and that accurate solution values can coexist with localized derivative errors. These results support structured conditional adaptation and motivate derivative-aware evaluation when sensitivities are downstream quantities of interest.

Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent renewals. We extend the Hypothetically Coordinated Vaccine Market (HCVM) framework to schedule multi-year tenders with flexible lengths and all-unit quantity discounts, and compare three objectives: a balanced coordinatingentity model (UG), a social-benefit model that minimizes missed doses (SB), and a producer profit-maximizing model (MP). Using UNICEF ten-year demand forecasts and 30 demand replications across six discount scenarios, we find that the procurement objective, not demand variability, drives cost-to-tender and schedule complexity. Quantity discounts favor large producers, concentrating the market and increasing supply chain vulnerability. Discount effectiveness depends on market maturity rather than valency: pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines are already near their price floor, and among monovalent vaccines only rotavirus responds to discounts, whereas HPV and PCV remain too expensive to compete. Removing pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines from the procurement pool sharply increases missed doses. These results give planners practical guidance on objective selection, discount design, and protecting access to combination vaccines.

Tolls for safe passage and attacks on shipping are usually treated as mutually exclusive: either ships pay or attacks happen. We argue they are complementary. In a Stackelberg escalation game for the Strait of Hormuz, the enforcer chooses an attack intensity and a toll schedule; the response is to pay, cross exposed, wait, reroute, or exit. Attacks create the willingness to pay; tolls harvest it. The model predicts asymmetry across trade forms: a toll where the cargo owner can pay and the vessel owner will consent, and none where either fails. Any such payment is clandestine, but the model's implications are testable against freight rates, insurance premia, and incident reports.

Mortgage credit risk may exhibit dependence across economically connected areas, even when they are geographically distant. However, current models typically represent cross-area dependence through fixed geographical neighbourhoods, potentially overlooking economic connections that extend beyond physical proximity and evolve over time. These models may fail to capture shared risks among geographically distant but economically similar areas, and cannot describe a changing dependence of risk; it therefore risks retaining economically obsolete connections while omitting newly emerging ones. This paper uses similarities of industrial composition as a measure of economic proximity and develops a discrete-time survival model with dynamic industrial graphs to capture evolving cross-area dependence in mortgage default risk. The resulting graphs are reconstructed annually, allowing both their topology and edge weights to change as regional industrial compositions evolve. Jointly combining a proper conditional autoregressive process with a first-order autoregressive process governs the temporal cross-area dependence and the temporal persistence in latent risk simultaneously. The model is estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation and evaluated on U.S. mortgage loan-level data against the static industrial graph specifications. The results show that the proposed dynamic model achieves better in-sample fit and out-of-sample discrimination, while its estimated parameters indicate substantial graph-induced cross-area dependence and temporal persistence. These findings demonstrate the value of allowing economically defined neighbourhoods to evolve when modelling mortgage default risk.

We study a local stochastic volatility (LSV) model in which the variance factor follows a generalized Langevin equation (GLE) with colored noise, and past returns act on variance through a memory kernel with state-dependent amplitudes. For kernels given by finite sums of exponentials, we prove existence, uniqueness, and non-explosion under a growth condition linking the volatility map to the potential. In a one-mode family with a polynomial potential, feedback through log returns can cause explosion exactly when the squared volatility factor grows faster than the restoring force. Under structural and nondegeneracy conditions, an exact reduced Markovian state has a smooth density solving a deterministic forward equation. The Dupire conditional expectation therefore requires no stochastic partial differential equation. Under a bounded Sharpe ratio, exponential utility selects the minimal entropy martingale measure, whose premium solves a quadratic backward stochastic differential equation. Under a regularity hypothesis, which we verify in special cases with and without leverage, the premium depends only on the current state, and the squared VIX equals the expected average future local stochastic variance. Finally, a regularized calibration problem with bid–ask constraints admits a minimizer whenever a feasible point has finite objective value.

Referees increasingly use large language models (LLMs), while finance and accounting journals disagree about whether to allow it. We ask which part of a referee's job the models can do. GPT-4o, whose training data end before the 2024 conference season, referees the papers presented at the 2024 AFA and NBER finance meetings, and we compare its verdicts with publication in the top-three finance journals over the next two years. Papers the model scores one standard deviation higher are 44% more likely to be published, net of author reputation. The result is not driven by look-ahead bias, as the model does not recall the outcomes. The information comes from its judgements of correctness and exposition. Its judgements of originality and significance carry none, and a referee guide that stresses importance does not help. The split between correctness and contribution holds for accounting papers and for a newer model, GPT-5. LLMs can check whether research is right, but not whether it matters. The technical check can go to the model, while the judgement of contribution stays with people.

The most widely used investment risk measures - variance, standard deviation, and tracking error - treat upside deviations as equally undesirable as downside losses. In stable markets with assumed symmetric return distributions, this simplification is potentially harmless. In the climate transition age, it is not. Climate risk is two-dimensionally asymmetric, across assets and over time. Both dimensions are negatively skewed against investors. Hence, climate transition investment strategies deliberately deviate from benchmarks that reflect an insufficiently decarbonising global economy. When fiduciaries enforce tracking error budgets that penalise outperformance just as heavily as underperformance, they inadvertently constrain exactly the portfolio return opportunities that climate-aware investing seeks. We argue that replacing symmetric deviation-based risk measures with their downside-only counterparts - semi-variance, standard risk and trailing error - resolves this conflict without sacrificing any fiduciary discipline. The distinction is not merely semantic: as the gap between climate transition trajectories and market benchmarks widens over the coming decades, symmetric risk budgets will become binding constraints on transition strategies well before actual investment risk warrants it. We propose specific changes to mandate design that would allow institutional investors to pursue climate transition opportunities within genuinely risk-aware (rather than deviation-averse) frameworks.

We study dynamic portfolio decarbonization under incomplete information about firms' carbon intensities and the underlying transition state. The investor maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth net of a penalty on perceived cumulative financed emissions. Asset returns and carbon intensities depend on a stochastic transition factor, while the investor may need to infer the current transition state, its long-run mean and firms' carbon intensities from market observations and periodic noisy disclosures. The optimal strategy combines a Merton-type component with climate-dependent expected-return adjustments, a direct carbon intensity penalty and intertemporal hedging demands associated with stochastic carbon intensities and learning. In a numerical application, incomplete information has limited effects on welfare and target satisfaction when prior beliefs are well specified. By contrast, biased beliefs generate welfare losses in either direction but asymmetric environmental consequences: optimistic and pessimistic beliefs induce opposite portfolio tilts and therefore affect the probability of exceeding the cumulative emissions target differently.

In stochastic control problems involving optimal portfolio choice, one often seeks an optimizer of some local criterion (dynamic programming value function) generated by some global criterion (e.g., expected utility). The local optimizer then typically acts as a stochastic integrand with respect to some multivariate stochastic process (e.g., asset prices). This paper takes a closer look at local criteria in the form of “local expected utility”. Since the existence of the local optimizer can be established under very mild conditions, it is crucial to understand under what circumstances the local optimizer has good integrability properties. It is shown that the reasonable asymptotic elasticity condition of Kramkov and Schachermayer (1999) applied to the local utility function plays a key role in this context.

We propose a structured continuous-time stochastic volatility model for one-day-ahead integrated-variance forecasting. The model introduces a jointly evolving realized-measure state that feeds directly into latent variance dynamics, while correlated Brownian innovations capture return-linked dependence. Parameters are estimated through simulation-based predictive learning, and Monte Carlo simulation forecasts integrated variance. Across 17 equity indices, the proposed model shows strong out-of-sample performance relative to GARCH, GARCH-Itô, Realized GARCH, HAR, and HEAVY benchmarks under QLIKE, MSE, and MAE. Ablation results show that realized-measure feedback provides substantial incremental forecasting value within the proposed framework, while return-linked Brownian dependence contributes more modest complementary gains. The results support incorporating measurement-driven information directly into continuous-time latent volatility dynamics to improve integrated-variance forecasting.

Expected Shortfall (ES) measures the average size of tail losses. Its sequential backtests typically also require a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast. We develop two e-backtesting methods using only observed losses and ES forecasts: one for iid losses only and the other for time series under an AR-GARCH conditional VaR structure. Under the stated assumptions, both control false rejections at any stopping time. For the time-series method, validity requires a fixed parameter–quantile pair representing the conditional VaR path and a positive report margin. The time-series statistic takes an infimum over possible parameter and VaR values. We choose the betting process $(\lambda_t)$ by maximizing an empirical growth rate averaged across candidate parameters. We compute the statistic by continuous VaR profiling on a dense parameter grid. For grid approximations, we prove convergence to the continuous infimum, together with convergence of the probability of false rejection, as the grid is refined over a fixed monitoring period. Lower and upper bounds for the VaR infimum on the parameter grid control the accuracy of the numerical profiling. Simulations, including ES reports that change from over-reporting to under-reporting, and an application to daily NASDAQ losses provide numerical comparisons with VaR–ES e-processes and fixed-sample ES backtests, assessing detection frequencies and the timing of rejections.

We study two hypotheses for how a human role in production could persist despite growing AI capabilities. Humans might have a durable advantage in taste, designing better products even as AI agents automate routine tasks, or consumers might intrinsically prefer that humans have a hand in production. In our experiment, participants act as producers, designing computer games with an AI coding agent, and as consumers who buy them. Across three studies (N = 1,025), we find no evidence for either hypothesis. Games designed by an AI on its own outperform those of human producers, including both amateurs and professional creatives. Human producers do not anticipate the AI's advantage. Revealing whether a game is human-designed does not raise consumers' willingness to pay for the product.

Estimation error in short, correlated pricing panels is dominated by trajectory dispersion rather than sampling noise, creating an identification shortfall that only independently assigned variation can resolve. We propose a guided iteration methodology to decide how much variation to generate, where, and for how long: a cyclic price-perturbation scheme under a revenue-at-risk budget, framed as variance minimization over design-specific error covariances, analogous to portfolio selection. We establish four key results: (1) a closed-form minimum-variance combination rule; (2) proof that a convex cost of intensity yields an interior, spread-out allocation, whereas under a concave tolerable-volume-loss cost, concentrating intensity into fewer perturbations pays off only with heterogeneous candidates, priced-in fixed costs, or perturbations beyond the cost curve's inflection point; (3) a discounted recursion yielding a data-dependent exit timeline from the experimentation zone; and (4) an application to Dominick's retail data, in which about five designed independent units match the precision of approximately 700 passive equivalents in the anchor category, while a fast proxy across ten categories achieves a median 97% variance reduction relative to passive panels. Sixteen comparisons (eleven pre-specified) support the theory: greedy selection achieves 90-93% of the global optimum across more than fifty exhaustively verifiable instances, and the recursion reaches its predicted 90%-of-steady-state benchmark two cycles early, though a parametric bootstrap indicates that its delta-method interval understates the right-tail risk. Boundary conditions show that regularized covariance estimators extend plug-in noise tolerance from 29% to beyond 50%, submodularity holds up to a clear curvature threshold, and a shared shock imposes a fundamental precision floor.

Multiplicative background risk models (MBRMs) provide a tractable framework for describing dependent risks. We construct a class of MBRMs with Pareto margins by combining Marshall–Olkin exponential and additive gamma risk factor structures, each allowed to incorporate idiosyncratic and systemic background risk factors. Our main result establishes, under an admissibility condition on the risk factor systems, a finite sub-mixture representation of the joint survival function in terms of Pareto survival functions, whose weights are Dirichlet probabilities of orderings induced by the background risk factors and sum to at most one. This yields a new interpretation of such MBRMs, in which dependence is expressed through Pareto survival functions and their Dirichlet weights. The resulting family encompasses many known multivariate Pareto constructions, is closed under marginalization, and admits characterizations of independence and, under a non-degeneracy condition, of its singular and absolutely continuous parts. It is associated, its covariance decomposition separates the contributions of the two risk factor structures and their interaction, and its joint tails are regularly varying along rays. The presence of asymptotic tail dependence and the decay rates of joint exceedance probabilities are governed by the gamma risk factors alone; the exponential risk factors affect only the tail constants.

We study whether stock disclosures by recognizable investors generate abnormal market reactions beyond the reactions produced by comparable but non-recognizable managers. We define the Buffett effect as the incremental abnormal return to a disclosed new position that is attributable to the public recognition of the disclosing investor. We construct a recognition index from Wikipedia pageviews and ProQuest news mentions. Using data from 2000 to 2025 we compare market reaction to disclosures of 24 recognizable discretionary funds with disclosures of 24 matched control funds. New-position disclosures by recognizable managers generate a positive disclosure premium over the filing date and the following trading days, and the premium increases with investor recognition. We construct calendar-time portfolios that mechanically copy each group's disclosed purchases and find that copying the most recognized investors earns a significant alpha that persists for months and does not reverse. The evidence is most consistent with an entangled attention-information channel: investor recognition directs scarce investor attention toward selected disclosures, and the information revealed in those disclosures is then capitalized into prices.

4Cast Lab is a free, open-source application for machine learning, econometrics and statistical analysis that runs on the user's own computer, with no installation, no programming and no data leaving the machine. It was developed at the E|M|E|F Lab, Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, for researchers, analysts, instructors and students in any field. Its Forecasting mode trains eight learning algorithms (with three kernels for SVM/SVR), implemented from scratch, under leakage-safe validation for time-ordered data; it selects models by cross-validation, compares the selected model with every alternative and with naive benchmarks through formal tests of predictive accuracy, and documents each run in a methods report and a Python script that the user can export. Its Estimation mode covers the core of applied econometrics, from OLS with robust inference to ARIMA, ARDL, VAR/VECM and GARCH. This paper describes the design, the interface and the workflow of version 4.6.2, reports a validation of 1,234 numerical results against statsmodels, linearmodels, arch, scikit-learn and NIST certified values, illustrates the workflow with three examples, and discusses current limitations.

We present a statically and dynamically arbitrage-free European option market model with smooth interpolation between option prices, based on the SANOS framework, and prove that its dynamics admit a unique strong solution. In spirit, it is a stochastic model for local volatility when the latter is used as a representation of a European option price surface, not as a pricing model. We illustrate the strength of our approach on S&P Index Option data from January 2022 to August 2025. We show that the model's initial state fits within bid/ask for more than 95% of relevant market option prices. We then train the model dynamics under $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$ and show that the model is indeed free of arbitrage while fitting the dynamics of the market well. We also propose a range of BHW-tests to test for absence of arbitrage.

Within the framework of non-extensive statistical mechanics, $q$-Gaussian distributions arise as maximum-entropy solutions of Tsallis entropy under suitable escort moment constraints. Although widely used in physics, biology, geology, finance, and related fields, standard $q$-Gaussians are intrinsically symmetric and cannot capture asymmetric fluctuations often observed in empirical data. We ask whether asymmetry can arise from the Tsallis maximum-entropy principle without externally skewing or joining distributions. We show that this is achieved by retaining the Tsallis entropy and imposing a global escort mean together with distinct downside and upside escort semi-variances. The key step is to reformulate the problem of maximum Tsallis entropy in terms of the escort density. The nonlinear escort constraints then become affine, while maximizing Tsallis entropy becomes equivalent to maximizing a strictly concave functional over a convex feasible set. Consequently, any admissible stationary solution is the unique global maximizer of the corresponding variational problem. The finite-sample approximation properties of the proposed asymmetric $q$-Gaussian are studied through Monte Carlo experiments using synthetic data generated from Azzalini skew-Student distributions. Compared with the classical symmetric $q$-Gaussian, the asymmetric specification systematically provides a closer approximation to synthetic asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions. Finally, we fit the model to return series from major equity indices, a commodity, and cryptocurrencies, and compare its in-sample goodness of fit with that of a symmetric $q$-Gaussian. The results show that the asymmetric model offers a closer in-sample description of unconditional return distributions, most clearly in the tails.

Ethereum sells data-availability capacity to rollups through "blobs" priced by a controller: the blob fee rises and falls exponentially with cumulative usage above or below a target, and no auction sets it. We measure what this mechanical price costs. The Pectra upgrade of 7 May 2025 doubled blob capacity on a date fixed weeks in advance, while the market was congested, and the blob fee fell from 0.82 mETH per blob (about USD 1.40) to its 1-wei floor. Rollups' blob purchases rose 24%. The 95% interval, built from the same estimator at 516 placebo dates, runs from 8% to 40%, so removing the entire price raised purchases by at most 40%. The implied elasticity at the pre-shock price is -0.19, and no value below -0.31 is consistent with the interval. The estimate includes any rise in L2 activity that coincided with the fork, so it bounds the price response from above. With demand this inelastic, the controller works mainly as a transfer. Rollups paid USD 14.8 million in blob fees under the first blob regime, 67% of it in two quarters when capacity was full and any market-clearing mechanism would have collected comparable scarcity rents. Where capacity was slack, the reserve price introduced in December 2025 cost at most 2.6 ETH (USD 8,039) in deadweight loss under the most elastic demand the data allow. Mempool records for 5.4 million blob transactions show that when the fee sits at its floor, capacity is slack: transactions miss about one block and are almost never priced out.

Market making under realistic order-flow dynamics is challenging due to the clustered, self-exciting nature of order arrivals, which are naturally modeled by non-Markovian Hawkes processes. We propose a model-free reinforcement learning (RL) framework for market making with general Hawkes order-flow dynamics. We first establish non-asymptotic performance bounds that quantify the loss incurred by approximating the infinite-dimensional Hawkes state using a finite collection of exponentially weighted features. Guided by this analysis, we introduce the Hawkes-Structured Network (HSN), a novel neural architecture that encodes historical order flow through a learnable mixture-of-exponentials filter. HSN is trained end-to-end using model-free RL, jointly optimizing the feature representation and quoting policy directly from reward feedback. Experiments on single- and multi-asset market-making problems with mixture-of-exponentials, power-law, and regime-switching kernels demonstrate that HSN outperforms general-purpose neural architectures, achieving higher trading rewards while implicitly recovering the underlying order-flow intensities.

A path indistinguishable from its own reverse carries no arrow of time, so time irreversibility is a necessary condition for a directed mechanism to be readable from trajectories alone. In finance it has been measured only on scalar series such as returns and volatility. We define the irreversibility rate of a coarse-grained limit order book path as the forward-to-reverse log-density ratio per event, and estimate it from three weeks of Nasdaq market-by-order data with an order-invariant MLP and a temporal convolutional network that receive identical blocks. For NVDA, the order-invariant and order-sensitive estimates are 0.036 and 0.054 nats per event, respectively. Their difference, the ordering increment, is 0.018. A surrogate preserving the coarse one-step transition table recovers 30 percent less irreversibility than the observed paths. The increment is positive for all twelve symbols on every held-out daytime date, and for NVDA in each session window. It changes more than tenfold with the coarse-graining scale. Neither a linear score nor any single feature group reproduces the full fitted rate. A queue-reactive simulator calibrated on the same days matches the market's ordered rate, 0.052 against 0.054, yet its ordering increment is 0.0006 against 0.018, building temporal asymmetry out of block composition instead of block order. We propose the ordering and scale profile of path irreversibility as a benchmark for order book simulators. Code and audit materials are available at https://github.com/hjyeo30/lob-irreversibility.

Households compare their living standard with others' and dislike changing it. We study consumption and investment when felicity depends on consumption relative to a benchmark, the population's geometric average consumption, and cuts in felicity weigh more than increases. Asset returns are exogenous. For finitely many types and arbitrary initial wealth and inherited standards, a mean field equilibrium exists under a weak interaction condition, and for fixed budget multipliers the benchmark is the fixed point of a contraction. In a complete market with common risk, a mean field equilibrium at empirical type frequencies is an exact Nash equilibrium of the finite game, for any preferences over relative consumption. We bound the gain from deviating when plans computed at another composition are used. We compute equilibria in which groups with different wealth, inherited standards, and loss aversion revise spending at different dates. With identical households and common risk, the unique symmetric equilibrium is the policy of a single loss averse household with modified curvature. In a baseline example, ignoring the inherited standard costs up to 17% of wealth, while small errors about the composition of the reference group cost less than 0.5%.

AI agents built on different language models can still share the software that presents their choices. We study one shared component, the order in which a borrowing agent's actions are listed, in a simulated collateralized lending market populated by three open-weight model families. In fixed decision states, moving the borrowing action from last to first raises valid borrowing requests by 27 percentage points. In 12 matched pairs of 15-agent markets, all agents in one market see the same order; the other spreads the six possible orders across agents. A common order moves whole markets: the four markets that listed borrowing first raised net debt by 1.8 to 2.7 times their initial unused borrowing capacity, while those that listed debt reduction first cut debt. These groups account for 96 percent of the sample variation among common markets, whose standard deviation is three times the balanced one. The borrowing cap stops 40 percent of valid borrowing requests made when borrowing is listed first, but it values collateral at the pool price, so correlated purchases raise borrowing capacity and leave positions above 70 percent of reference value. Under a 30 percent shock, an 8 percent liquidation bonus produces write-offs on loans that are fully collateralized before liquidation, and liquidation triggers that read the pool price add exposure. Common ordering does not put more borrowers into the write-off zone; it concentrates them in the markets whose shared order favored borrowing. Collateral valuation and liquidation rules determine how much of it creditors fail to recover.

EIP-4844 gave Ethereum rollups a separate fee dimension for data, governed by a multiplicative update rule that targets three “blobs” per block. Whether this target is reached depends on how many independent, self-interested rollups choose to post data, a question that closed-form models address only for a single agent under exogenous prices or in a static equilibrium. We propose a calibrated multi-agent reinforcement learning environment for the blob fee market in which the blob base fee is endogenous, set by the EIP-4844 rule on the aggregated decisions of heterogeneous rollups fit to post-Dencun Ethereum data. After confirming that the environment reproduces the known single-agent analytical optimum, we show that independent learners, with no convergence guarantee, still settle near the target without coordination ($3.32\pm0.01$ blobs per block over five seeds). Over a fiftyfold demand range ($10\times$ to $500\times$), supply stays at the target from $10\times$ to $200\times$ and rises above it at higher demand, where the fee can no longer hold it. Posting frequency increases with rollup size, an emergent analog of the size threshold predicted by prior theory. A costless layer-1 calldata outside option pushes the fee down by roughly an order of magnitude while aggregate supply stays at the target, so the fee rule acts as a negative-feedback controller on decentralized supply.