Papers

Scheduling clients for model training is critical in federated learning due to both data and system heterogeneity. Most previous works focus on the quality of the scheduled clients to achieve faster convergence, shorter wall-clock convergence time, or better average model performance. They rarely consider the diversity of clients, which is important to counter heterogeneity and improve performance for the worst-off clients. In this work, we advocate the use of determinantal point processes (DPPs) to model and enhance the diversity in client scheduling. We first design the kernel matrices of DPPs using gradient information and quality scores, which inherently enables a flexible quality-diversity trade-off. Applying fast MAP inference over DPPs, we propose Adaptive Determinantal Client Scheduling (ADCS) in FL. We further quantify the gradient approximation error of ADCS and develop convergence analysis for general biased client selection in FL with non-convex loss functions. We conduct comparative numerical experiments showing that ADCS outperforms state-of-the-art client scheduling algorithms, including both quality-based and diversity-based ones.

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates can be derived using inverse methods by combining atmospheric concentration observations with chemical transport models. The latter traditionally use physics-driven simulators such as Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LPDMs), which are expensive to run and do not scale well to modern satellites' high resolution data. Previously we developed a performant atmospheric transport emulator that approximates LPDM outputs ("footprints") over South America ~1,000X faster than the UK Met Office's LPDM. Expanding towards global emulation is not straightforward, as atmospheric transport is regionally heterogeneous. This paper evaluates spatial transferability capabilities of models across four world regions: South America, East Asia, South Asia, North Africa using both region-specific and multi-region models, and leave-one-region-out experiments. Regional differences are characterised in the context of input variable and output footprint distributions. This work builds intuition in cross-region generalisation and transfer learning, aiding regional performance towards efficient global emissions estimates.

We study the complexity of finding $(\delta,\epsilon)$-Goldstein stationary points of nonsmooth nonconvex Lipschitz functions. By now, it is known that randomized first-order algorithms can solve this task with a dimension-free oracle complexity [Zhang et al., 2020], whereas deterministic algorithms cannot, as their complexity must scale at least linearly with the dimension $d$ [Jordan et al., 2023, Tian and So, 2024]. This leaves open whether deterministic algorithms can nevertheless solve the problem with oracle complexity polynomial in $d$. We answer this question negatively by proving a lower bound of order $(1/\epsilon)^{\Omega(d)}$ for deterministic algorithm, closing the exponential gap between the previously known lower and upper bounds and resolving an open problem posed by Jordan et al. [2023]. We further discuss several extensions and implications of this result to weaker stationarity notions, finding a descent direction and deterministic smoothing. Overall, our results establish an exponential computational advantage in nonsmooth nonconvex optimization offered by randomization.

A fundamentally challenging question in K-12 education is about the effects of taking more advanced or challenging classes. It is particularly complex because students (and/or their parents) choose whether to enroll in these classes, making causal analysis challenging. In this paper, we begin to tackle this question by taking advantage of a novel dataset from a public school system in the US. This dataset records students' course enrollment decisions, prior academic histories, demographics, and subsequent outcomes around the time of a district-wide change that introduced optional open-enrollment advanced middle-school courses in subject areas. This is a rich observational dataset, but enrollment in advanced classes is driven by student characteristics and choices rather than random assignment. This creates a core identification challenge: the same factors that influence enrollment in advanced courses are also predictive of academic outcomes. As a result, simple comparisons between enrolled and non-enrolled students are confounded, and naive estimates may reflect underlying differences in student ability, motivation, or support rather than the impact of coursework itself. Our analysis shows that enrolling in advanced English courses has a net positive but modest effect on student achievement outcomes. However, these benefits are unevenly distributed: some students with relatively large predicted gains ("middle achievers" in prior years) are less likely to enroll than others. Some other groups (e.g. Black students and those with lower socio-economic status) also demonstrate significantly lower propensity to enroll. This gap between predicted benefit and observed enrollment illustrates how careful data analysis can extract actionable insights from large observational datasets, including identifying students who appear well-positioned to benefit but do not select into advanced options.

Mitral and tricuspid regurgitation are the most common regurgitant valvular lesions, yet only a minority of severe cases undergo corrective surgery. Rapid assessment of valve mechanics could enable earlier, more precise intervention, but finite element (FE) analysis is slow to repeat across the many loading and tissue-property values of interest, which for a given valve are not known in advance. We introduce the Physics-Conditioned Neural Operator (PCNO), a transformer-based neural operator predicting leaflet displacement, strain, and stress fields conditioned on systolic blood pressure and tissue properties. PCNO is trained on, and evaluated against, FEBio simulations of functional and regurgitant mitral and tricuspid valves and of three mitral pathologies. With pressure and all material parameters simultaneously outside the training support, displacement error against FE reaches 4.48% and the mean errors of unsupervised geometric measures of valve function stay within 3.5%, indicating a conditioned solution operator over parameter space rather than an interpolator of the training set. Under this shift, PCNO is also more accurate than graph neural network and graph neural operator baselines trained on the same simulations, with the largest margins in stress.

The Generalized Naive Bayes (GNB) model was introduced for discrete and categorical random variables as an extension of classic Naive Bayes. We now accommodate the GNB framework to continuous explanatory variables. A central result of the paper is that structure learning of the GNB depends only on the pair copulas of the bi-variate marginals. We proved that the GNB structure can be assigned to the basis of a matroid, therefore we give greedy algorithms for finding the optimal GNB structure on the training data, in sense of minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence. Three cases are considered: joint Gaussian distribution, then a more flexible model where we suppose the dependence structure to be described by a Gaussian copula with arbitrary marginals, and an even more flexible case where the joint continuous probability distribution is arbitrary, i.e. copula and marginal distributions are arbitrary. A method for model reduction, based on the newly introduced concept of GNB forest is given. We close the paper by comparing the newly introduced GNB classification results to other classical "glass-box" algorithms on real datasets.

Dictionary learning seeks to recover an unknown dictionary $A$ from observations ${\bf y}_i = A{\bf x}_i$ with sparse coefficient vectors ${\bf x}_i$. We introduce the Iterative Atom Refinement (IAR) algorithm, a simple procedure for recovering individual dictionary atoms. Starting from a random direction, IAR repeatedly selects the observations most strongly correlated with the current iterate and updates the direction by averaging the selected data. Our main contribution is a rigorous convergence theory of IAR. Using high-dimensional probabilistic estimates and a novel monotonicity principle for atom-selection probabilities, we show that a small initial advantage of one atom is amplified until that atom is isolated. Under our model assumptions, IAR identifies a generating atom after only three refinement steps. Numerical experiments support the theory and show that the resulting dynamics accurately capture the behavior observed in dictionary refinement.

Modern conditional generative models face significant challenges when learning complex covariate dependencies. While sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) provides a principled approach to compress these dependencies, traditional SDR frameworks were not formulated for conditional generation. To bridge this gap, we propose Belted Engression, a unified and architecturally parameter-efficient framework for generative distributional regression. Our approach establishes an end-to-end compress-then-generate paradigm driven by sufficient representation learning, embedding a structural bottleneck into the generative architecture. Theoretically, we prove that the standard SDR condition is equivalent to a law-preserving generative factorization, which is achieved at the global optimum of the population Belted Engression objective. Furthermore, by uncovering a localized Bernstein-type control for the energy-score loss, we establish finite-sample convergence rates that are sharper than those of existing results. We also prove that this belted architecture is strictly smaller, operating with an asymptotically vanishing parameter count relative to the unstructured baseline. Extensive simulations and real-world applications demonstrate that Belted Engression achieves superior distributional prediction and SDR recovery with fewer trainable parameters.

Many real-world decisions require prioritizing high-risk cases, such as clinicians prioritizing high-risk patients before lower-risk ones. Falling rule lists (FRLs), which are ordered if–then rules with monotonically decreasing risks, provide an interpretable framework for such tasks; however, their single-path structure yields a highly restricted model class. We introduce falling trees, a new family of interpretable models that enforces the same monotonic risk constraint while permitting tree-structured branching. We present GRAVITree, a novel dynamic-programming-with-bounds algorithm for learning the Rashomon set of falling trees under depth and branching constraints. Our formulation can interpolate between rule lists and full decision trees, enabling user-desired model expressivity. In a new clinical dataset and in many public classification benchmarks, falling trees match or outperform FRLs and other interpretable baselines, often producing more sparse decisions for high-risk instances. Our results show that falling trees strike a practical balance between interpretability, expressiveness, and risk prioritization for high-stakes settings.

Obtaining the optimal action-value function in Markov decision processes is computationally intensive in large state–action spaces. In this study, we present statistically rigorous convergence results for a robust reinforcement learning algorithm warm-started by a transformer-based action-value function prediction, where natural language prompts encode task specifications. Our framework adopts the R-contamination model to characterize uncertainty in the state transition kernel, and employs conformal prediction to certify convergence via trajectory-level nonconformity scores constructed from the contracting Bellman residual. The resulting conformal quantile bounds the gap between the running and optimal action-value functions simultaneously over all iterations, thereby yielding a pre-certified stopping rule that requires little knowledge of the true transition kernel. Numerical case studies on perturbed maze environments of varying size and contamination level confirm that the transformer-based warm start measurably reduces the initial error and accelerates convergence, while the proposed conformal bounds track the true error trajectory more tightly than existing guarantees.

Decentralised federated learning replaces server aggregation with peer-to-peer model exchange, making collaborator selection a local decision under uncertainty. Fixed probe budgets waste effort on easy choices yet fall short when peers are hard to distinguish. We propose SAGE (Sequential Anchor-Gated Exchange), an optimal-stopping peer selector under a one-model-bearing-exchange budget. A receiver scores candidate neighbours on receiver-owned anchor evidence and selects once an advantage is certified. It continues probing only while further evidence repays its cost, and otherwise falls back to random gossip. We show that the stopping problem admits an optimal rule attained at a finite stage, and that the anchor schedule is order-optimal in the peer-risk gap and the confidence level. We further show that the selector never returns a peer worse than random gossip with high probability, and prove that no such guarantee holds for selectors that commit without a certificate. A separability threshold follows, below which no probing budget improves on gossip. Experiments span two image benchmarks, two graph families and three heterogeneity levels. Selectors that always act on their evidence lose to gossip in every configuration tested. SAGE-OS matches gossip on 75.5% less evidence than a fixed budget, at half the communication overhead of two published selectors. The operative decision is not which peer to rank first, but whether the evidence justifies ranking at all.

Root cause analysis at a remote site is slow: evidence is scattered across pod logs, Kubernetes events and cluster-level objects, and many operators cannot send production logs to a hosted model at all. On-premise inference removes the second constraint but raises a question live-cluster benchmarks have not addressed: when one workstation GPU fixes both the model and the context budget, how should evidence be retrieved, and what happens when the runbooks the model consults have been tampered with? We present TriFleetRCA, a pipeline running entirely on one on-premise GPU that collects evidence at one of three scopes (pod, namespace, cluster), ranks it by template de-duplication then BM25, filters runbooks through an ingest guard, and returns a root cause with the evidence lines supporting it. We evaluate on a live Kubernetes cluster into which we inject four faults, so ground truth is known by construction, across 100 analyses with Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct at temperature 0. The hit rate was 0.85, 0.90 and 0.95 at pod, namespace and cluster scope; intervals overlap, but the whole scope effect comes from the one fault whose cause is a cluster-level object, and cluster scope costs 55% more tokens. De-duplication before ranking raised the hit rate from 0.75 to 0.90 at equal token cost. A poisoned runbook telling the model to delete the namespace was rejected by the guard every run; with the guard disabled the model declined to follow it in all 20 analyses, making the guard defence in depth rather than the sole barrier. Separating citation quality from accuracy proved informative: one fault was diagnosed correctly and cited incorrectly every trial, a failure mode accuracy conceals. Median latency was 1.6 s at 2,200 prompt tokens. We release the pipeline, the fault injector and all records.

Internal voids are ubiquitous defects in manufactured structures, yet their characterization remains challenging because their geometry is hidden and can only be inferred indirectly from accessible measurements. Here we introduce GenVoid, a physics-informed generative model-based framework for identifying internal voids in complex two- and three-dimensional solids from surface displacement measurements alone. By incorporating the governing mechanics into a generative inference framework, GenVoid enables void identification across linear elastic, hyperelastic and plastic material behaviours and accommodates complex two- and three-dimensional structural geometries. Importantly, the framework explicitly accounts for uncertainty and noise in displacement measurements, producing probabilistic reconstructions of internal void geometry rather than a single deterministic estimate. We demonstrate the approach using high-fidelity synthetic datasets and experimentally measured displacement fields obtained from in-situ mechanical experiments, establishing its ability to infer hidden voids from realistic displacement measurements. To quantify the fundamental limits of such inference, we further introduce an observability measure that characterizes the sensitivity of boundary measurements to localized stiffness perturbations within the interior under an ensemble of applied loads. This framework provides a direct connection between defect location, sensor configuration and reconstruction fidelity, enabling systematic assessment of how the number and spatial distribution of boundary measurements govern void-identification accuracy. To this end, these results establish a physics-informed and uncertainty-aware approach for non-invasive characterization of hidden defects and provide a quantitative basis for designing measurement strategies for inverse problems in solid mechanics.

Generative world models aim to predict future states conditioned on actions, where action controllability is fundamental for reliable dynamics modeling. While recent efforts leverage simulator-generated data to enhance this capability, existing training pipelines face two fundamental limitations. First, static offline data collection leads to a distribution misalignment between training sets and the model's evolving error patterns, failing to resolve critical long-tail scenarios where dynamics predictions remain unreliable. Second, the standard objective of minimizing observational discrepancy often encourages the model to exploit spurious correlations instead of capturing the underlying action-effect causality. To address these limitations, we propose OnlineWM, an online training framework that continuously improves world modeling through active simulator interaction and causality-aware optimization. OnlineWM introduces two key innovations: (1) Active Online Learning: Instead of using fixed datasets, OnlineWM adaptively queries the simulator for new interaction sequences that target the model's current predictive weaknesses, ensuring high-utility data acquisition. (2) Causality-Aware Fine-Tuning: We propose a counterfactual learning strategy that contrasts the outcomes of different actions from identical states, forcing the model to attribute state transitions to specific actions rather than ambient environmental evolution, thereby grounding its predictions in reliable causal mechanisms. By integrating active data acquisition with causal optimization, OnlineWM establishes a closed-loop refinement process that ensures the model is both robust to diverse scenarios and precise in its causal attribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OnlineWM significantly enhances action controllability and generalizes effectively to unseen domains.

Robotic systems are typically composed of multiple independently developed modules that work together to perceive, predict, and act in the environment. Although each module may perform reliably in isolation, composing them does not necessarily preserve uncertainty calibration at the system level. In this work, we show that well-calibrated component interfaces do not necessarily produce calibrated downstream behavior after composition. Using a moving-obstacle prediction pipeline, we demonstrate that position and velocity estimators can each appear well calibrated individually, yet differences in how their error are correlated lead to substantially different estimates of future-state uncertainty. Consequently, assuming independence can make the system either overly confident or unnecessarily conservative, directly influencing downstream planning decisions and safety. Through simulations, we show that modeling the joint covariance restores downstream calibration and improves system performance, whereas dependence-robust uncertainty bounds enhance safety at the cost of increased conservatism. Our findings reveal a fundamental limitation of independently validating robotic modules and highlight the need for interfaces that communicate dependence information or support direct system-level calibration.

Textual-gradient methods automate prompt optimization through natural-language feedback, but their iterative updates can be unstable. We identify two sources of this instability: noisy gradients produced from already-correct examples and over-specialization to hard cases that degrades performance on simpler inputs. We introduce STEVE, a stabilization framework with two coupled mechanisms. Error-Driven Refinement generates gradients only from incorrectly handled examples, concentrating updates on informative failures. Regularized Verification treats every update as provisional and accepts it only when improvement on hard cases does not cause unacceptable regression on a preservation set. Across ten reasoning benchmarks, three evaluator/optimizer models, and established prompt-optimization baselines, STEVE reduces degradation and produces more robust prompts. Additional evaluations with gpt-5.4-mini/gpt-5.4 on symbolic reasoning, GSM8K-Platinum, and DS-1000 show that these gains persist with newer models and larger test sets. STEVE therefore provides a practical way to improve the stability and effectiveness of textual-gradient prompt optimization.

Financial language models can transform unstructured firm-specific news into structured decision signals, but financial AI research lacks an integrated deployment framework for evaluating whether those signals remain useful in financial decision systems. Computer science research has developed strong methods for time-series forecasting, text classification, multimodal stock prediction, graph-based market modeling, and machine-learning operations, yet these streams do not provide a domain-specific protocol that jointly tests financial language-model outputs under event-time observability, probability calibration, execution timing, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, capacity limits, operational diagnostics, and statistical inference. We introduce MFAST, a Market-Friction-Aware Sentiment-to-Trading framework that converts timestamped financial text into auditable, reproducible, and market-feasible trading decisions. The application is news-based trading, where firm-specific text must be linked to securities before portfolio decisions can be evaluated. The framework links Refinitiv News Analytics to Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) equity data, restricts the primary out-of-sample evaluation to post-release news outside disclosed foundation-model data-freshness periods, and adds a public replication arm using open financial text and public price data. Results show that decoder-only language models outperform encoder baselines and dictionary sentiment in classification, calibration, return prediction, and net portfolio performance, while operational diagnostics reveal trade-offs among accuracy, latency, memory, throughput, and inference cost. The paper shows that credible evaluation of financial language models requires an end-to-end engineering approach combining language understanding, temporal discipline, market-friction-aware deployment, and reproducible validation.

Probabilistic forecasting requires accurate central predictions and calibrated uncertainty estimates. This paper presents TEMPER, the Temporal Encoder-Masked Probabilistic Ensemble Regressor, a univariate time-series forecasting algorithm that combines a temporal autoencoder, a differentiable masked neural decision forest, continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) training, and Gaussian-mixture post-processing. The R implementation is built on torch for R and returns horizon-wise density, distribution, quantile, and sampler functions. We evaluate TEMPER on three deterministic synthetic level series with trend, periodic, regime-switching, nonlinear-threshold, and heteroskedastic components. Across 96 rolling-origin forecasts at horizons t + 1, t + 5, t + 20, and t + 60, TEMPER obtains 2.824% mean CRPS normalized by origin level, 3.635% median absolute error, and 68.8% empirical 90% interval coverage after training with a 300-epoch cap and early-stopping patience of 100. A naive persistence bootstrap has the best aggregate CRPS, 2.763%, while TEMPER has the best median absolute error and the best CRPS at t+1 and t+5. The ablation study uses matched series-origin-horizon cells, horizon-wise CRPS deltas, endpoint sensitivity summaries, and a calibration-specific interval study. Relaxing the learned mask improves average CRPS by 0.472 percentage points on the ablation subset, mainly through long-horizon gains. A twofold interval inflation improves held-out coverage from 54.2% to 91.7% and gives the best 90% interval score among tested calibration rules. The results identify calibration, horizon-specific tuning, and component selection as the central research priorities.

Multi-teacher on-policy distillation allows a student to learn from complementary specialists on its own trajectories. Domain-routed approaches, however, select one teacher per example and keep it fixed throughout the response. This design both depends on domain labels that mixed training corpora often lack and cannot adapt teacher selection when the expertise required changes within a trajectory. We observe that each specialist deviates more from a shared reference on in-domain prompts than on out-of-domain prompts, on average. Based on this observation, we propose TrustMOPD, which replaces example-level teacher selection with label-free, token-level supervision allocation. At each student-generated prefix, TrustMOPD measures this displacement in next-token preferences, calibrates its magnitude across teachers, and uses the resulting scores as proxies for local reliability to weight teacher-specific distillation losses. Evaluated across mathematics, code, and instruction following, TrustMOPD closes 91.5% and 98.0% of the overall-score gap between the initial student and oracle-routed teachers when trained on SingleCap and MultiCap, respectively, compared with 54.4% and 54.5% for the strongest label-free baseline in each setting. On SingleCap, it approaches label-based MOPD without using domain labels. Our code is available at https://github.com/sunjie279/TrustMOPD-.

Empirical ramp fitting can assign weight to pure-noise features even when the population optimum ignores them. We quantify this gap for norm-constrained adversarial classification with Gaussian signal and noise. The variance cost relative to normalized signed mean separates into two factors: selecting observations inside the active margin window and the curvature induced by the norm constraint. Changing the tail variance leaves the activewindow probability unchanged but changes the second factor. With positive attack budget and a signal-only predictor of risk below one half, we prove a uniform quadratic tail-deletion bound, including at zero tail variance. Sufficiently accurate approximate global empirical minimizers admit exact fixeddimensional asymptotic covariances in the low-risk regime with isotropic principal covariance. For positive tail variance at most principal variance, the product exceeds one; an additional moment condition transfers it to expected excess ramp and robust classification risks. A wide window analysis characterizes when this ordering reverses. Controlled experiments test the decomposition, and a separate contamination study examines its scope outside the Gaussian training model.

This paper introduces a multi-temporal tabular dataset derived from satellite images to map burned areas in the Chapada dos Veadeiros National Park, in Goiás, Brazil, covering the years 2020 to 2022. The dataset contains blue, green, red, and near-infrared bands, as well as the BAI, EVI, GEMI, NDVI, and NDWI spectral indices from the WFI sensor on the CBERS-4A, CBERS-4, and AMAZONIA-1 satellites, organized into a regular grid. We applied the Random Forest classifier to develop and validate models based on samples labeled as totally burned, partially burned, and non-burned. Two classification approaches were tested: one combining burned and non-burned areas into binary classes and another distinguishing between totally burned (TB), partially burned (PB), and non-burned (NB) classes. Seven validation approaches assessed different post-classification combinations, focusing on accuracy, precision, recall, and intersection over union (IoU) metrics. Results showed higher IoU when TB, PB, and NB were used as individual classes and TB was reclassified as burned area (BA) while PB and NB were grouped as non-burned. Comparing the annual results of this approach to the MCD64A1 product, the errors of omission for the BA class were 22% in 2020, 28% in 2021 and 59% in 2022, while the errors of commission were 46%, 43% and 46%, respectively. The study highlights the utility of the WFI sensor for burned area mapping without inter-satellite spectral calibration and suggests further exploration with other machine learning algorithms to evaluate the dataset potential and limitations.

Patch-based autoregressive time-series forecasting often ties input representation, learned transitions, and recursive execution to one patch length. We ask which of these roles can be adjusted separately. A supporting atomic-encoding study finds greater sensitivity to model width than to atom grouping on the evaluated grid. Our main finding is that a frozen parent's recursive trajectory is easier to fit than the observed future with lightweight parallel exits. Autoregressive Trajectory Distillation (ATD) turns this into selectable ATD-1/2/4/8 execution, with ATD-1 exactly recovering the parent. On a paired four-data-set comparison, ATD-8 reaches $5.54\times$ end-to-end speedup with stable quality across widths. Fewer calls do not automatically remove the parent's existing forecast error: ATD improves trajectory fidelity in all 21 seed runs but forecast accuracy in only 15 against matched clean-future supervision. We further find a correctable residual projection along a train-selected periodic history direction. Spectrum Tangent applies this correction without adding neural parameters or Transformer calls. At horizon 720, it reduces mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by 2.54% and 2.33% over seven data sets and two output widths, while remaining $3.24\times$ faster than recursive inference. Level and shape projections sometimes disagree. Trajectory compressibility, the fidelity-accuracy mismatch, and the correction recur across three public AR parents. Together these results separate representation, transition, and execution as AR design axes. Code is available at https://github.com/RowanFFF/ATD-Spectrum-Tangent.

Inferring network topology from noisy node observations is a central problem in graph signal processing. In this paper, we consider Laplacian-constrained graph estimation for Gaussian Markov random fields, focusing on the underdetermined regime in which the number of samples is smaller than the number of graph nodes. Existing approaches often formulate the problem as a sparsity-regularized maximum-likelihood estimation problem. While effective, such methods typically require iterative optimization and are often computationally demanding, particularly under Laplacian constraints. Instead, we propose a non-iterative estimator of graph Laplacians that uses effective resistance for regularization, and evaluate the method using a simple sparsification procedure. Experiments show that with some trade-off in edge and weight recovery on the considered dataset, computational cost for moderately sized graphs can be substantially reduced.

Ethereum decentralized finance (DeFi) provides a public, time-stamped record of transaction-level event streams, but the same public symbols can create strong machine-learning shortcuts. We introduce ETH-TraceBench, a benchmark for evaluating Ethereum DeFi representations under temporal, protocol, pool/infrastructure, and symbolic shift. The raw event universe covers January 2021-December 2025 and contains 1.35 billion transactions with logs and 5.01 billion raw log rows. Model evaluation uses a fixed 911,267-instance supervised sample, training on 2021-2024, selecting models on 2025H1, and testing on 2025H2. Simple models perform strongly on the aggregate temporal test: TraceStats-GB reaches 0.953 macro-F1 and TopicEmitterHashMLP 0.959 on the canonical DEX test set. Performance drops sharply under protocol novelty, with macro-F1 of 0.794, 0.743, and 0.766 for TraceStats-GB, TopicEmitterTrace-SGD, and TopicEmitterHashMLP, while strict unseen-pool scores remain 0.927, 0.897, and 0.935. Uniswap v4 and Ekubo v1, both absent from supervised training, are materially harder than the full test. Jointly masking emitter and topic identity reduces DEX macro-F1 to 0.916 and liquidation macro-F1 to 0.774 for TopicEmitterTrace-SGD. A standard Transformer over log-index-ordered events provides no consistent advantage over a deterministic shuffle of the same events, indicating that high aggregate scores can arise without sophisticated chronological modeling. A natural-prevalence audit estimates 2025H2 DEX prevalence among logged Ethereum transactions at about 22.5%, and a deterministic 400-transaction audit finds complete agreement with task label sources and independently re-queried raw-log counts. ETH-TraceBench therefore treats difficult transfer and controlled-input conditions, rather than a single aggregate score, as the main evaluation target.

Despite impressive visual quality, state-of-the-art video diffusion models often generate content that violates real-world physical laws. While existing solutions rely on external priors or specialized data, we investigate the root cause by exploring the internal mechanisms of these models. Specifically, we present the first interpretability study on the ”motion planning” process of text-to-video diffusion models, revealing how motion trajectories form during early denoising stages. Building upon the ”first shape, then details” finding, we combine cross-attention trajectory patterns with causal head contributions to identify a specific subset of attention heads driving motion planning. Further, our self-attention analysis shows that Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) induces excessive spatial attention decay. This causes early candidate regions to prematurely lock into physically implausible positions, suppressing reasonable trajectories in adjacent frames and triggering generation failure modes. To address this fundamental flaw, we propose a lightweight architectural modification that scales the frequency of RoPE across different denoising steps. This strategy reduces excessive attention decay, helping the model explore better candidate regions to establish coherent physical motion. Finally, training-free and training-based experiments confirm the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing the physical commonsense of generated videos.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have achieved strong performance in embodied manipulation, but still struggle to distinguish between changes that should preserve behavior and those that require different actions. We identify two complementary failure modes. Under task-preserving changes, where task semantics remain unchanged but scene appearance varies (e.g., style, illumination, clutter, or paraphrasing), policies often exhibit unnecessary action drift. Conversely, under semantic-breaking changes, where key task semantics such as the target object or constraint are altered, policies frequently continue following the original trajectory instead of adapting to the new task. To address these failures, we propose BAS-VLA, a task-semantic action calibration framework built on top of a frozen base VLA. BAS-VLA adopts a breaking-centered calibration core as its default path, complemented by a selective evidence-gated preserving auxiliary that corrects appearance-induced drift when task-preserving evidence is strong. Across four target-object swap tasks, BAS-VLA improves changed-task success from 2.3% to 68.5% while maintaining strong clean and semantics-preserving performance and suppressing outdated behavior. On validated style-preserving shifts, it further improves success from 42% to 70% without degrading clean performance. These results demonstrate the importance of calibrating VLA policies to remain stable when task semantics are preserved and adapt when task semantics change.

Human-feedback alignment has made language models useful assistants and is commonly described as aligning them with humans. However, the responses people prefer from an AI need not be the responses they themselves would give. We distinguish alignment with human preferences from alignment with human behavior, and show that alignment with human preferences can make model behavior less human-like even when both preferences and responses come entirely from humans. We call this the Turing-test gap. We show that preference alignment preserves the human response distribution only under a restrictive condition, and find no consistent evidence that real human preferences satisfy it. Empirically, the loss of human-response likelihood increases with the strength of preference weighting, regardless of its direction, and the gap also appears under standard DPO. These results establish human-likeness as an explicit dimension of alignment rather than something assumed to follow from preference alignment.

With face-recognition models now embedded in everyday authentication and surveillance, recent works have pinpointed a critical weakness: these models remain acutely vulnerable to adversarial semantic edits. I.e., adversarially produced semantic alterations to the input, such as slight aging or pose changes, can induce misclassifications. Certain existing attacks are powerful, but they can be computationally costly, rendering them inadequate for developing defenses (e.g., through adversarial training). To fill the gap, we introduce BoundStyle, a potent semantic attack operating in StyleGAN's rich latent space to maximize misclassification rates. Notably, BoundStyle achieves high attack success rates while being ${\sim}{\times}9.5$ faster than existing state-of-the-art attacks, making it suitable for adversarial training. Building on BoundStyle, we develop StyleAT, an efficient adversarial training scheme that incorporates low-budget attack variants yet defends against stronger and unseen semantic attacks. We evaluate on two datasets unseen during training and seven models, and find that StyleAT boosts robust accuracy against state-of-the-art attacks and outperforms common defenses in various settings.

Orthogonality in a LoRA factor does not by itself specify what the composed update protects: the answer depends on the task-start state, the parameterization, and the realized optimizer displacement. We formalize this question through Bilinear Optimization Divergence (BOD), an anchor-relative diagnostic of effective-update response on selected historical features. The finite-step analysis distinguishes two cases. In a shared adapter, protecting the routing displacement leaves a learned-anchor residual through the changing companion factor. In a fresh zero-output block, a feasible routing state can protect the composed update while both current factors remain trainable. These conditions yield Semi-Frozen Orthogonal Routing (SFOR) for shared adapters and current-block hard protection for cumulative O-LoRA; Weight Residual Projection (WRP) enforces the required displacement after the optimizer step. Controlled two-task traces verify the predicted residual paths, reducing normalized historical response from 19.12% to 0.005% in the shared family and from 7.72% to 0.002% in the cumulative family. Four-task experiments on Qwen3-8B characterize the resulting trade-offs: SFOR improves backward transfer (BWT) from -2.47 to -0.86 with nearly unchanged average accuracy (AA), while O-LoRA hard protection improves three-order mean AA from 80.27% to 81.30% and forgetting measure (FM) from 2.20 to 0.43. Component controls also show that stricter feasibility need not improve final task performance. Together, the analysis and evidence provide an architecture-conditioned account of which constraint to enforce, how to enforce it, and how to interpret its empirical value.

Battery energy storage system (BESS) dispatch must preserve operational feasibility while declining price spreads reduce the margin available to pay for cycling. We study a proximal policy optimization (PPO) controller whose pre-selection physical action mask and emergency projection are separated from a causal, forecast-informed economic advisory. All forecast-dependent methods receive the same causal 24-step forecast and grid-side settlement. Across five PPO seeds, advice-on net profit is 30.59 and 18.04 USD per 336-hour T1 and T2 window, versus 36.77 and 22.94 USD for proxy-cost MPC; PPO remains below this reference in both periods. Advice raises T2 profit from 16.45 to 18.04 USD while reducing throughput, but is immaterial in T1. On disjoint weekly blocks, PPO is stable under daily, weekly, and blended seasonal forecasts, weakens under persistence, and remains below proxy-cost MPC. Paired diagnostics localize changes to the observed 5-10 USD/MWh regime with mixed SoC-dependent effects. An M0-M6 ablation shows that mask removal sends thousands of infeasible requests to projection, while removing both physical layers exposes ramp violations. The evidence separates economic screening from feasibility enforcement without claiming formal safety, lifecycle-optimal aging, or RL dominance.