Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Papers
Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.
Tuesday 29 September
Deep Support Vector Data Description (Deep SVDD) has become a prominent framework for unsupervised anomaly detection by learning latent representations that compactly characterize normal data around a center. Despite its empirical success, anomaly decisions produced by Deep SVDD are typically made solely based on anomaly scores without rigorous statistical guarantees, thereby limiting their reliability in safety-critical and high-stakes applications where false positives must be strictly controlled. In this paper, we propose PADI (Post-Anomaly Detection Inference), a novel framework that equips a trained and frozen Deep SVDD detector with statistically valid inference by leveraging the Selective Inference framework. Specifically, PADI performs inference conditional on the event that a test instance is identified as anomalous by Deep SVDD, thereby enabling rigorous statistical assessment of anomaly decisions. Based on this formulation, we derive valid selective p-values that quantify the statistical significance of the detected anomaly. Using these p-values, we theoretically establish control of the false positive rate (FPR) at a user-specified significance level $\alpha$ (e.g., $\alpha=0.05$). Furthermore, we extend the proposed framework to Deep Semi-Supervised Anomaly Detection (Deep SAD), providing a principled approach for statistically reliable inference in semi-supervised anomaly detection settings. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets robustly support the theoretical findings. The results demonstrate that PADI consistently achieves proper FPR control while attaining superior true positive rates compared with existing approaches.
Artificial Intelligence
GRFBrain: Graph-Structured Rectified Flows for EEG Dynamic Modeling
Forecasting time-varying functional connectivity from electroencephalography (EEG) requires modeling both history-dependent trends and structured variability across channels. Conditional flow matching provides a framework for distributional forecasting, yet it remains unclear whether graph-informed source distributions offer practical advantages over isotropic noise and strong deterministic predictors. We introduce a graph-structured residual flow framework that separates conditional mean prediction from stochastic residual transport. A history-only predictor estimates the future connectivity graph, while a graph Gaussian source encodes dependencies derived from past connectivity through a Laplacian-based covariance. A conditional velocity field transports source samples to future graph residuals, with transport time explicitly distinguished from physical EEG time. Our study identifies the conditions and controls needed to distinguish useful residual transport from improvements attributable to deterministic prediction, learned representations, and sampling effects.
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Machine Learning
Learning When to Update: A Near-Optimal Timing Bandit Approach
Systems operating in dynamic environments require timely updates to sustain performance. For resource-intensive systems such as machine learning models and digital twins, strategically timing updates is essential. Updating too frequently wastes resources, while updating too infrequently leads to costly performance degradation. The problem is particularly challenging when the system's degradation pattern is unknown a priori, as is common in new operating environments. We formalize this challenge as a novel timing bandit problem, where each arm represents a candidate update interval with a fixed update cost and an unknown, stochastic degradation cost. Three structural properties distinguish this setting from standard multi-armed bandits: selecting an interval commits the learner to multiple time slots before the next update; arm costs are composed of per-step degradation costs and a fixed update cost; and selecting a longer interval naturally reveals degradation at every intermediate step, providing consecutive feedback relevant to shorter intervals. By exploiting these structures, we develop Balanced Consecutive Arm Elimination (BCAE). BCAE achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret, improving upon the $\tilde{\Omega}(K\sqrt{T})$ regret of standard bandit algorithms in this setting, where $K$ is the number of candidate update intervals. We further propose an Optimism-Enhanced variant (OE-BCAE) that integrates lower-confidence-bound principles to improve empirical adaptivity while preserving the same regret order. Moreover, the regret bound achieved by our algorithms matches the theoretical lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Simulation results demonstrate that our algorithms achieve low regret and remain stable as both the number of arms and the update cost vary.
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Computation and Language
Learning What to Remember: Long-horizon Counterfactual Memory Optimization
Persistent textual memory allows language models to carry information across long interactions, but learning what to remember is fundamentally a credit-assignment problem. A memory rewrite may only become useful many steps later, while much of the observed utility may be inherited from information already stored before the rewrite. We introduce Memory Gain Policy Optimization (MGPO), which isolates the incremental value of each memory rewrite by crediting it for its marginal contribution to current and future downstream utility. This turns delayed memory utility into a direct learning signal for optimizing what information should persist. We study MGPO on document-level information extraction, where structured supervision makes the effects of individual memory updates directly measurable. MGPO improves extraction while reducing average memory length by nearly 80% relative to the initial memory policy before optimization. The learned memory policy also supports reuse and transfer across domains, downstream models without further training. These results show that effective memory learning depends not only on preserving useful information, but on identifying which memory updates create lasting incremental value.
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Data Structures and Algorithms
Vanishing Ideals and the Computational Tractability of Sum-of-Squares over Boolean Domains
Building on the bit-complexity framework of Raghavendra-Weitz and the moment-SOS criteria of Gribling-Polak-Slot, we study the effective use of truncated vanishing identities over Boolean polynomial systems. A complete, constructible identity space gives an augmented moment SDP that can be optimized with exact rational feasibility and arbitrary additive accuracy. We give a self-contained geometric implementation: an explicit affine reduction and a simplex of Boolean evaluations supply the radius bounds required by rational ellipsoids. The identity space can be constructed directly or extracted from a supplied graded Groebner basis, including one supplied at a higher truncation degree. An explicit transfer theorem connects this augmented formulation to the original system. Two-sided SoS derivations eliminate the added equality axioms from certificates, with controlled degree and coefficient growth, and imply containment of a projected higher-level moment relaxation in the augmented body. Together with spectral coefficient bounds, this gives polynomial-time search for rational proofs with an additive perturbation. For Min-closed linear systems, propagation constructs the identity space in polynomial time at fixed degree and gives degree-(4t+4) certificates for both signs of each degree-t basis element. Consequently, a rational degree-(8d+4) proof of f + epsilon >= 0 can be found in polynomial time for fixed d whenever f >= 0 has a degree-2d proof. The augmented degree-2d moment SDP can be optimized in polynomial time with exact rational feasibility and a comparison to the original degree-(8d+4) relaxation. Boolean complementation gives the same results for Max-closed systems, including generalized packing and covering. Min-closed systems thus provide a concrete application of the general criteria. All complexity bounds are in the Turing model.
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Computer Vision
Rollout-Marginal Distillation for Long-Horizon Autoregressive Video Generation
Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables low-latency, streamable video generation, but prediction errors often accumulate over long rollouts. Training the generator on its own rollouts exposes it to these imperfect histories. However, existing video-level distribution matching distillation (DMD) scores the whole rollout jointly. Because a chunk is evaluated together with its past and future, its correction can favor matching artifacts in the surrounding context merely to preserve temporal consistency. To provide a clearer visual-quality signal, we introduce Rollout-Marginal Distillation (RMD). RMD retains the generated history for AR prediction but scores each chunk independently against a chunk teacher, ensuring its quality correction is not compromised by an imperfect temporal context. To compensate for the lack of temporal context in independent chunk scoring, RMD subsequently applies video-level DMD to restore temporal coherence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RMD maintains high visual quality far beyond its training horizon and outperforms video-level DMD baselines. Code and video results are available at https://cjeen.github.io/RMD
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Machine Learning
Time-Anchored Diffusion Language Models: Latent-Space Caching for Fast Generation
Recent work on anchored diffusion language models improves denoising by shaping an intermediate latent space with supervised important-token targets. In this work, we introduce time-based (self-supervised) anchoring, which learns and reuses latent anchors without requiring such targets. Our key observation is that anchors encode persistent properties of the clean sequence, such as its semantic intent, global structure, or intermediate plan. Although their hidden representations become stale as the token canvas evolves, their semantic content remains useful across nearby diffusion times. This is implemented through a two-stage architecture consisting of a relatively expensive anchor network that generates the latent cache state and a lightweight denoising network that intelligently combines the cached latent state with the current state at each reverse step using a fusion module. This gives anchoring a latent-space caching interpretation: the anchor network is evaluated periodically, while its cached representation is reused across multiple reverse steps. We instantiate this framework as TADM:Post-train, which time-anchorizes pretrained DLMs, and TADM:Pretraining, which learns time-based anchors during pretraining. Applied to DiffusionGemma-26B, TADM:Post-train improves throughput by approximately 49% to 79% on several math, code, and STEM benchmarks (GSM8K, AIME26, GPQA-Diamond, LiveCodeBench-v6, HumanEval, MMLU-Pro). TADM:Pretraining reduces Transformer-layer computation by up to 38% relative to a standard single-stage DLM, achieves up to 73% higher measured throughput than ADLM.
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Computer Vision
EpiCon: Collective Agent Learning through Co-Evolving Multimodal Memory
Agents can learn from past executions, but enabling different agents to reuse and build on one another's experience remains challenging. We introduce EpiCon, a shared multimodal memory framework for agent collective learning without updating host model parameters. EpiCon links question-level memory evolution to a persistent experience bank through two independently trained 2B models: a memory controller and a tree self-organizer. The controller jointly refines textual guidance and visual evidence across attempts and selectively includes visual memory. The self-organizer consolidates lessons hierarchically and retrieves experience and rules for new problems. We evaluate EpiCon on eleven benchmarks spanning four multimodal task domains, using two harnesses and multiple backbones. A frozen bank improves other systems even with a single solving attempt. A second harness raises the original system's macro-average score by 2.6 points across eleven benchmarks. Across four host configurations, EpiCon improves macro-average scores by 1.7 to 4.9 points over No Memory and reduces memory-operation time by 67% to 74% relative to backbone-sized memory models.
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Robotics
WayFinder: Hierarchical Visual-Language-Action for Zero-Shot Waypoint Generation and Low-Level Kinematic Control
Visual Language Action (VLA) models offer unprecedented generalization for autonomous robots; however, their real-world deployment is frequently bottlenecked by unreliable execution and the prohibitive computational cost of fine-tuning for specific robot embodiments and tasks. To bridge this gap, we propose WayFinder, an end-to-end, closed-loop hierarchical VLA framework that circumvents the need for fine-tuning by decoupling high-level task reasoning from low-level kinematic control. WayFinder utilizes a zero-shot, offboard Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) policy to process linguistic context and state maps for strategic waypoint generation. Asynchronously, a lightweight, onboard policy executes real-time kinematic control at high frequency based on continuous sensor feedback. We evaluate WayFinder in Microsoft AirSim, testing on four environments of varying complexity and three MLLM scales to balance prediction efficacy with computational efficiency. Our results demonstrate that WayFinder achieves superior navigation reliability compared to baseline low-level policies. By querying the high-level MLLM only during navigation failures, WayFinder eliminates the need for fine-tuning, minimizes expensive inferences, and significantly increases navigation success rates by up to 27.45%.
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Machine Learning
Pattern Formation in Transformers
What are the inductive biases of a Transformer architecture? Existing theory on how the forward pass shapes representations either considers whether Transformers escape from rank collapse or demonstrates that self-attention drives tokens toward cluster patterns. The latter view arises from an elegant dynamical systems perspective, but relies on simplified architectural assumptions, and does not explain the rich structures observed in practice. This leaves a major open question: when a full Transformer escapes rank collapse, how does it structure token representations? Using pattern-formation theory, we show that the dynamical view of Transformers can account for Positional Encoding, Multi-Head Attention, and Output-Value geometry. We demonstrate that a full Transformer architecture imposes an inductive prior by selectively amplifying a rich set of previously unreported patterns, including traveling or rotating waves among others. We characterize the role of each architectural component in controlling which pattern is amplified, which ones stabilize, compete, or coexist. Finally, we show that these structures can act as a controllable dynamical prior that facilitates learning. By choosing both task-aligned positional encoding and weight initialization, we demonstrate improved data efficiency and accelerated optimization on controlled sequence tasks and with ConViT on CIFAR-10.
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Computer Vision
SYNCR: Diagnosing and Learning Cross-Video Reasoning from Simulation
Reasoning across videos requires aligning events, matching identities, comparing motion, and integrating partial observations. Evaluating these capabilities and testing how to improve them requires both reliable labels and targeted supervision. We introduce SYNCR, a simulator-grounded framework that connects these two needs through shared task generators. Built on Habitat, Kubric, and CLEVRER, SYNCR derives answers from environment state and provides 4,000 evaluation questions and 15,960 training questions over disjoint videos, spanning eight cross-video reasoning tasks. Visual ablations and human evaluation assess dependence on the supplied evidence and answer recoverability. Evaluation of 22 multimodal large language models reveals persistent difficulties in physical comparison and scene integration that increasing model size does not consistently resolve. Supervised fine-tuning raises Qwen3-VL-8B's average SYNCR accuracy from 32.6% to 61.6%, with gains extending to task configurations and video sources absent from training for those tasks. Transfer to real footage is most consistent for temporal ordering: accuracy improves by 9.0-20.5 percentage points on constructed Assembly101 and Panoptic ordering sets across three checkpoints spanning two model families and two model sizes, with additional gains on existing temporal reasoning benchmarks. These results establish SYNCR as a controlled setting for diagnosing cross-video reasoning failures, testing their learnability, and identifying where synthetic supervision transfers.
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Machine Learning
Search Dimension in Unlabeled Projection Pursuit: A Scaling Law for Subspace Restriction
Projection pursuit searches for a direction along which the data look least Gaussian. When the observation space contains a large Gaussian complement, the empirical objective can be minimized by a direction that carries no signal, with empirical kurtosis as low as at the truth. Sample splitting exposes rather than repairs this failure. Appending coordinates independent of the latent regime degrades the search while leaving Bayes recoverability unchanged. Restricting the search to the column space of a known forward operator removes the failure exactly on the negative-kurtosis branch. Estimating a principal subspace from the data is the alternative. In a controlled two-component model, the leading sufficient scalings differ in the gain with which the operator transmits the discriminant: $\varsigma^{-4}$ for covariance-spike estimation and $\varsigma^{-8}$ for fourth-moment search. At fixed search dimension, the measured threshold ratio collapses onto $n/p^2$ with exponent $0.156$, close to the predicted $1/8$. This is an empirically supported scaling motivated by sufficient bounds, not a proved asymptotically tight law. When the search dimension is varied, the measured exponent is $0.325$, substantially larger than $1/8$, and the tested range does not identify its functional form. The crossing location also depends on calibration and model configuration. Under a downstream excess-error criterion, the scaling largely disappears.
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Distributed Computing
RLX: A Unified Multi-Backend Tensor Compiler and Distributed Runtime in Rust
Production machine learning (ML) stacks often split graph compilation and kernel execution across different layers and languages, making backend behavior, deployment guarantees, and performance fallbacks hard to reason about end-to-end. RLX addresses this gap with a single Rust codebase that combines compiler and runtime roles around one primitive-level, three-level intermediate representation (IR), plus a transparent dispatch contract that resolves each operator to native, common-IR, or rewritten lowering and fails compilation when legalization is not possible. The same IR targets fourteen runtime devices (cpu, metal, mlx, ane, cuda, rocm, oneapi, tpu, hexagon, gpu, vulkan, opengl, directx, webgpu) and two specialty codegen paths (Cortex-M INT8 and FPGA), ingests safetensors, GGUF, ONNX, and rten formats, supports F16/BF16/F64/C64 and quantized INT4/INT8 flows with AMP/PTQ/QAT, and scales via tensor-/pipeline-parallel collectives over TCP and RDMA transports. Beyond neural workloads, RLX also extends to scientific/physics-style domains through sparse and dense linear algebra extensions (e.g., CSR LU/CG/matvec and LAPACK- backed factorizations) and 3D Gaussian splatting operators. We evaluate RLX against PyTorch, TensorFlow, JAX, candle, burn, tch, rten, MLX, CoreML, IREE, Glow, TensorRT, and tinygrad under identical input generation and p50 measurement methodology on one host. On all-MiniLM-L6-v2, RLX-Metal is fastest at every batch (e.g., 16.6 ms at batch 32 vs. PyTorch-MPS 26.7 ms). In the MNIST training table, RLX also has the top-throughput entry (graph-fused MLP: 946,487 img/s), above NumPy+BLAS (787,349 img/s), while retaining 100% top-1 parity on reference checks (e.g., Qwen3).
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Machine Learning
Overcoming Scaling Limits in On-Policy Self-Distillation for LLM Reasoning
On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) trains a student to match a privileged teacher distribution along its own sampled trajectory. Standard OPSD applies this supervision to unverified student rollouts while conditioning the teacher on privileged context, typically a reference solution. We separate these roles in a factorial analysis and find that scaffold correctness has a stronger effect on downstream accuracy than context correctness. Unverified scaffolds create an imitation gap because the teacher can use information unavailable to the student. This gap shrinks with model scale, yet OPSD continues to supervise mostly unverified trajectories. In contrast, verified scaffolds remain effective even when the teacher is conditioned on the student's own unsuccessful rollout. Based on this finding, we introduce OASIS, which retains the OPSD objective but supervises mostly verified by label on-policy trajectories and replaces written solutions with unverified model-generated attempts as the teacher context. OASIS therefore requires only final-answer labels. Across Qwen3-1.7B, 4B, and 8B on AIME 2024, AIME 2025, and HMMT 2025, OASIS improves over the base model by 3.2–3.8 points on average, while OPSD's gain falls from 3.05 points at 1.7B to 0.14 at 8B. At 8B, OASIS improves over OPSD by 3.05 points, showing that verified on-policy scaffolds preserve the effectiveness of self-distillation as models scale.
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Computation and Language
The Unequal Influence of Bad Advice: Using Training Data Attribution to Modulate Emergent Misalignment
Fine-tuning large language models on narrow, misaligned tasks can undo their post-training alignment and induce novel misaligned behaviors – a phenomenon known as emergent misalignment (EM). EM has been linked to persona-like representations, where fine-tuning might reduce loss by amplifying a harmful or 'evil' persona. It remains unclear which properties of the training data drive this effect: whether all harmful examples contribute approximately equally to misalignment and whether different models are equally affected by the same fine-tuning examples. In this work, we use training data attribution to quantitatively estimate how much each harmful example contributes to EM. We benchmark the quality of the attribution via retraining – a sound attribution score should enable us to enhance or attenuate EM by filtering data on that score. Score-based filtering can substantially enhance or attenuate EM; we find that both data-attribution scores and a black-box harmfulness score can identify consequential examples. All models we test become misaligned when trained on the same dataset, and influence scores perform best when filtering data from the same model that computed them. We find cross-model generalization of influence scores from scores derived from the three model families we tested, but this generalization does not recover same model filtering performance.
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Distributed Computing
Byzantine Causal Reliable Broadcast with Constant Metadata Overhead
Asynchronous Byzantine Reliable Broadcast (BRB) is a fundamental primitive that guarantees agreement and validity in distributed systems subject to Byzantine faults, but it lacks ordering guarantees. Causal message ordering is important for many applications such as blockchain and social networking. Existing solutions for Byzantine Causal Reliable Broadcast (BCRB) have several drawbacks. Such protocols typically append vector clocks or dependency barriers to application messages, resulting in a metadata overhead that scales linearly with $n$, the number of processes in the system. In this paper, we propose the first optimal message overhead BCRB algorithm that guarantees safety. We do this by re-engineering Bracha's BRB algorithm with relatively small but critical modifications, and prove that our algorithm solves BCRB with optimal message metadata. The algorithm achieves constant-size $\mathcal{O}(1)$ message metadata overhead and $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ messages, resulting in $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ communication word complexity. This is as against $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ communication word complexity of existing protocols. The algorithm tolerates $f < n/3$ Byzantine processes, which is the well-known optimal resilience bound, and uses four phases.
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Information Retrieval
Generated Query Expansion Still Helps Strong Sparse Retrieval: A Controlled Study with SPLADE-v3
Scientific queries are often brief, while relevant papers use specialized vocabulary. Generated query expansion can bridge this mismatch, but earlier work suggests that its value shrinks as the underlying retriever becomes stronger. We test the four generated formats of term lists, a pseudo-document, multiple pseudo-references, and corpus-steered text all together with SPLADE-v3 on NFCorpus, TREC-COVID, and SciDocs. Every condition searches the same frozen document index and follows the same query-side integration rule and 256-dimension budget, isolating the effect of the added content. All twelve method-collection comparisons improve aggregate nDCG@10, with best relative gains of 4.81%, 8.92%, and 9.47%. Eleven remain significant after Holm correction. The gain persists in 103 of 114 interpolation settings, including every setting that assigns at least 30% of the mixture weight to the original query. Shuffled-text and non-contextual lexical-bag controls also remain above baseline in all 24 aggregate comparisons, showing that the added vocabulary carries most of the benefit. A corpus-induced typed concept graph, by contrast, produces no consistent gain, and its relation, depth, validation, random, and gating controls do not rescue it. Generated vocabulary can therefore complement a strong learned sparse retriever, provided that the original query remains strongly represented.
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Sound
2-Dimensional spectral gating for denoising bioacoustics recordings
Isolating vocalizations from noise in bioacoustics recordings is a prerequisite to many ecological analyses, including species identification, animal communication understanding, and individual or population-level variability studies. However, when recordings are acquired in open environments, vocalizations, noise, or signal-to-noise ratio can vary widely across individuals, species, environment, and recording conditions, making it hard to develop robust and generalizable methods for ecological analyses. To account for these challenges, noise reduction techniques are used to remove noise before downstream analyses. Popular methods such as Noisereduce rely on spectral gating, which estimates a noise threshold for each frequency channel. We propose a further improvement to Noisereduce, leveraging the fact that most animal sounds have structure across multiple frequencies. We apply our method on bird and marine mammals recordings and show that our extension of Noisereduce leads to improved denoising in both above and under water acoustic recordings, without impacting speed of preprocessing.
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Artificial Intelligence
Pixels to Keys: Exploring Spatial and Motion Cues in Gameplay Inverse Dynamics
Video games offer scalable environments for studying perception and control in embodied agents. Abundant online gameplay videos could supply demonstrations, but they rarely include player inputs for training. Inverse Dynamics Models (IDMs) have thus been proposed to infer inputs from frames. Large (up to 1B parameters) IDMs trained on $\sim$1K-2K gameplay hours demonstrate feasibility and cross-environment generalization at this scale, but researchers do not clarify what the key components are to recover individual actions and often report only aggregate accuracy that can mask rare-action failures. We study the problem in a data-constrained scenario to evaluate how spatial motion features, model architectures, and training objectives affect an IDM's outcome and we analyse our models on per-key and balanced metrics such as $F_1^{macro}$. Our experiments on Trackmania highlight the importance of factors like the model architecture and motion flow extraction in preprocessing, while also showing the limits of evaluation through unbalanced metrics. The application of the same architecture and training recipe to Cyberpunk 2077 reveals uneven performance across game mechanics. Our per-action evaluation and failure analysis highlight ambiguities from camera motion, delayed effects and imbalanced key-press frequencies that call for explicit modeling of 3D scene structure, long-term state and the adoption of proper losses in future implementations.
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Machine Learning
Beyond Interaction Capacity: Estimator Scaling with Recursive Models for CTR Prediction
Click-Through Rate prediction, a core task in recommendation and advertising systems, relies on modeling interactions among sparse categorical features. Explicit cross networks are a central paradigm for CTR prediction, and recent progress has largely come from increasing the interaction capacity of a single predictor through deeper cross networks and more expressive cross operators. We revisit whether continually increasing interaction capacity remains the most effective way to improve predictive performance, and find that its benefits quickly exhibit diminishing returns even as capacity continues to grow. This motivates a complementary scaling direction that we call estimator scaling, where additional resources are used to incorporate multiple related estimators rather than only enlarging a single predictor. Through theoretical analysis, we show that the gains from estimator scaling are governed by the amount of non-shared predictive variation available across estimators. However, exploiting this variation naively can be expensive: independently trained models provide substantial estimator diversity but require deployment cost to grow with ensemble size. This motivates a parameter-efficient realization of estimator scaling that can incorporate diversity from multiple estimator sources without maintaining multiple full models. Building on this view, we introduce RECursive Averaged Predictor (RECAP), a parameter-efficient recursive CTR model that operationalizes estimator scaling at three levels: distillation across independently trained models, exponential moving averaging over training trajectories, and aggregation over inference-time routes within a weight-shared recursive backbone. Experiments across multiple benchmarks establish new state-of-the-art predictive performance on standard benchmarks, while placing the RECAP on a favorable performance-parameter Pareto frontier.
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Computational Engineering · Cross-listed from q-fin.CP
From Intraday Orderbook to Imbalance Price: Understanding Cross-Market Interaction
Power systems with increasing variable renewable generation face greater uncertainty in scheduling and balancing. Intraday and balancing electricity markets facilitate position adjustments and real-time balancing close to delivery. As delivery approaches, continuous intraday market participants exposed to imbalance settlement adjust their positions by trading additional volumes to reduce their imbalance exposure. We conjecture that positions remaining open after intraday trading, together with demand and supply uncertainties affecting physical market participants, influence price formation in the balancing market. This cross-market interaction is, however, rarely studied. To understand this interaction, this paper uses probabilistic modeling to examine how intraday orderbook information reflects subsequent imbalance price formation in Germany and Austria. We compare orderbook representations based on open, high, low, close, and volume, Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and last mid price across multiple horizons. Each representation is evaluated using the self product, neighboring products, and the product from the neighboring country. We then compare the best orderbook setting with fundamental feature sets and their combinations, followed by an ablation study of the available training history. We show that VWAP with neighboring products provides the best performance in both countries. Combining orderbook and fundamental information reduces testing loss in Germany but increases it in Austria. Using all available observations provides the best overall performance, while excluding 2022 can reduce loss for extreme price samples. These results reveal and help explain country-dependent interactions between the intraday and balancing markets.
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Artificial Intelligence
You Cannot Pick a Provider From the Price List: Market-Aware Routing for Open-Weight LLM Inference
Existing LLM routers choose among models using static per-model costs. We show that open-weight inference markets introduce a second, largely ignored decision axis: after choosing a model, a client must still choose which provider serves it. Measuring live endpoints across [nummodels] open models, competing providers, multiple task types, and three measurement waves, we find that provider choice cannot be inferred from the price list. The same model can vary sharply in quality, latency, availability, and price across providers; higher-priced providers are consistently faster, but price does not reliably predict quality or availability; and provider feasibility is task-selective, with one deployment nearly normal on knowledge tasks but catastrophically degraded on multi-step reasoning. We formulate same-model provider selection as a price-taker market-aware routing problem. A simple measured-map policy routes to the cheapest provider that is both quality-equivalent and healthy, yielding matched-quality savings while avoiding degraded endpoints. Because the map drifts, we introduce FACET, an online provider router that certifies per-(provider x task) feasibility facets and fails safe to an anchor before serving uncertified arms. Across relaxed deployment assumptions, FACET tolerates imperfect task assignment and sparse feedback, while systematic evaluator bias exposes a quality-signal trust boundary that can be mitigated with ground-truth probes or audits. Live provider runs further confirm that certification can move real traffic from a premium anchor to a substantially cheaper certified endpoint. Our results suggest that market-aware LLM routing must measure not only which model to use, but also who serves it.
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Machine Learning
Scaling Zero-Order Pretraining through Model Sharding
Zero-order optimization (ZO) trains without backpropagation, making it relevant to forward-only hardware and non-differentiable loss, but its gradient variance grows with perturbed dimension, inhibiting large-model training. Sharded Optimization Mixture of Assemblies (SOMA) trains LSTM experts independently on $N$ data clusters using simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA), without exchanging gradients, activations or optimizer state. Its separable loss removes cross-expert perturbation noise at the cost of jointly learned representations across domains. Using 80,000 estimated RTX 5090 GPU-hours, we show modest sharding improves training compute efficiency over all tested monolithic ZO controls. At 8.44M parameters and 150 aggregate GPU-hours, SOMA $N=2$ with 64 perturbations reaches 1.76 test nats/byte, versus 2.00–2.11 for monolithic SPSA at 64, 256 or 1,024 perturbations and 2.21 for EGGROLL. On WikiText-103, these frozen checkpoints reach 2.07, 2.25–2.36 and 2.49, respectively. On a fixed separable objective with equal-size blocks, we prove independent losses reduce relative gradient variance to approximately $1/N$ of a shared-loss estimator's. Holding starting weights, data, perturbations and compute fixed, independent rather than summed losses lower SOMA $N=4$ test loss by 0.035 nats/byte after 1,000 updates across three seeds. Larger ensembles offer a separate inference benefit: at similar model size with top-$k$ routing ($k=4$), SOMA $N=256$ achieves 2.36M tokens/s versus 257k for SOMA $N=8$ ($9.19\times$, including routing), at lower test loss (1.68 versus 1.71), albeit using $59.9\times$ as much aggregate training compute. We release all training and evaluation code and checkpoints.
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Artificial Intelligence
Guide, Then Let Go: Gap-Adaptive Teacher Scheduling for Sparse-Reward Agentic RL
Reinforcement learning for long-horizon agents typically relies on sparse outcome-based rewards. This leads to a severe cold-start problem, as early-stage policies often fail to solve sampled tasks, leaving little useful reward signal for learning. To mitigate this problem, we use on-policy distillation (OPD) to provide token-level guidance on the student's own rollouts. We find that the benefit of this guidance depends on the performance gap between the teacher and the student. When the teacher substantially outperforms the student, distillation helps guide the student through the early training stage where outcome rewards provide little learning signal. As the gap narrows and eventually reverses, however, continued distillation becomes less beneficial and may hinder further improvement. Motivated by this observation, we propose Gap-Adaptive Teacher Scheduling (GATS), which augments the student's RL objective with an OPD term whose weight adapts to the teacher-student performance gap. Specifically, GATS gradually reduces teacher guidance as the student approaches the teacher's reference performance and withdraws it once that reference is reached. This enables GATS to leverage task-trained teachers smaller than the student, since teacher guidance is primarily needed during early training. Across ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld with three Qwen2.5 teacher-student configurations, GATS achieves the highest average success rate among the compared methods in all three configurations, improving over reward-only GRPO by 4.37%-11.87% under matched student rollout budgets. Code is available at https://github.com/Ricardo-H/guide-then-let-go.
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Computation and Language
It's All Training: A Fully Synthetic Single-Stage Recipe for LLMs
Current pre-training datasets are derived from web crawls, with all their issues, and were not designed to support mid- and post-training pipelines–for instance, they contain little explicit reasoning. Thus, many frontier labs have begun to develop their own internal datasets, starting from state-of-the-art models, to augment their pre-training data mix, eg, with reasoning traces to address cold-start problems. While demonstratively effective, none of these datasets are public, and the effect of this so-called synthetic data on knowledge and skill acquisition of language models, including small ones, remains poorly understood. We present SYNTH, the first open-source synthetic corpus derived from 58,698 Wikipedia articles that collapses pre-, mid-, and post-training into a single training stage via structured amplification of curated encyclopedic seeds. We evaluate SYNTH by training a suite of models: a 56M tiny model (Monad), 0.3B-0.6B dense models (Baguettotron), and a 13B / 1B-active MoE. At iso-compute, SYNTH outperforms filtered web data, and our models remain competitive with similarly-sized open-weight baselines. Because SYNTH is back-translated from grounded passages, SYNTH-trained models achieve high factual precision despite 10-140x fewer training tokens, with memorization targeted by the seed corpus. These results show that synthetic datasets, including our SYNTH dataset, are capable of producing competitive generalist models from a fraction of the training data, enabling rapid iteration as the frontier advances. These findings open up possibilities for both generalist models with significantly increased data efficiency, as well as domain-specific models where no instruction or conversational data is available. Finally, we publicly release our SYNTH dataset and the suite of Baguettotron models under a permissive license, thus supporting open-source language model development.
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Computer Vision
ReCAP: Retrieval-Guided Capability Reuse for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning
Multimodal continual instruction tuning (MCIT) aims to enable multimodal large language models to acquire new capabilities from sequential tasks while preserving previously learned knowledge. Existing methods primarily mitigate catastrophic forgetting by constraining parameter updates or separating task-specific adaptations. However, continual adaptation can also benefit from external knowledge that provides domain-specific information and reusable reasoning patterns for solving diverse instructions. For example, to answer "How many red cubes are to the left of the sphere?", domain knowledge can provide relevant concepts about objects and spatial relations, while reasoning knowledge can specify ordered operations such as object recognition, spatial filtering, and counting. Despite this potential, how to leverage external knowledge for continual adaptation remains largely unexplored in existing MCIT methods. To this end, we propose ReCAP, a retrieval-guided framework that leverages external knowledge to guide capability reuse during continual adaptation. At each continual stage, ReCAP uses external search and an LLM to incrementally build a knowledge base of domain, reasoning, and format knowledge based on the current-stage training data. For each instruction, retrieved domain knowledge guides generation, while retrieved reasoning knowledge selects and orders capability modules to form an instance-specific capability path. As these capability modules are reused across stages, subsequent adaptation can overwrite previously learned parameters. To enable stable cross-stage reuse, ReCAP introduces adaptive subspace recycling, which parameterizes reusable capability modules with shared bases and stage-specific cores, protects historically important directions while recycling residual capacity. Extensive experiments on MCIT benchmarks show that ReCAP achieves SOTA performance.
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Computer Vision
Visual Branch is What You Need for CLIP-based Class-Incremental Learning
Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) requires models to recognize new classes over time without forgetting previously learned ones. With the rise of vision-language pre-training, CLIP has become a strong foundation for CIL. A common design in CLIP-based CIL is to construct textual classifier weights by encoding class-name templates with the CLIP text encoder, and then classify visual features by image-text cosine similarity. This design is appealing: since CLIP aligns images and text in a shared embedding space, textual weights appear to provide an off-the-shelf classifier for incremental classes. However, we show that this seemingly natural design is not always beneficial, as a modality gap can still separate the two modalities and make textual classifier weights deviate from visual class distributions. Empirically, under identical task-wise CIL training, initializing the cosine classifier with visual class centers yields lower loss and better incremental accuracy than using CLIP textual features. Motivated by these observations, we propose VIS, a visual-only method for CLIP-based CIL that removes the deployed textual branch and constructs the incremental classifier entirely in the visual space. To obtain stronger task-adaptive visual representations, VIS uses only base-session data to enhance CLIP's final visual representation with informative visual-layer features. Built on the enhanced visual representation, VIS employs a simple kernelized incremental least-squares SVM, whose classifier weights are solved in closed form from additive sufficient statistics. When new classes arrive, VIS accumulates their sufficient statistics and recomputes the classifier weights for all seen classes, enabling efficient incremental updates while preserving historical class knowledge. Extensive experiments show that VIS achieves state-of-the-art performance without a textual branch.
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Machine Learning
Behavioral Capacity Certificates for Quantized Language Models
Activation and key-value cache precision change what a quantized language model computes without altering its stored weights. Direct weight-code bounds, however, assign identical complexity to deployments that behave differently and charge separately for weight codes that behave identically. Behavioral Capacity Certificates (BCC) charge for behavior using the aggregate prior mass of complete implementations—weights, scales, activation and cache rules—that induce the same bounded loss. When quantization merges implementations, this shared mass lowers the complexity penalty, and a break-even law determines when the saving survives the cost of validating it. BCC supports a three-step deployment workflow, and our experiments verify each step. First, a forward-only screen shortlists per-layer bit-widths by how often candidate perturbations preserve the reference predictions, with quality comparable to Hessian-guided selection at lower preprocessing cost. Second, margin-certified cells identify weights that can be pruned or sign-flipped without changing the deployed behavior: every permitted combination preserves all declared predictions, and on OLMoE-1B-7B and SmolLM2-1.7B, independent probes bound the probability that any permitted combination changes a prediction on new text. Third, BCC bounds the population loss of the deployed model, nonvacuously for complete decoders and more tightly than the compressed-code route. At equal cache memory, giving keys higher precision than values yields lower NLL and higher prediction agreement on GPT-2, Qwen2.5, and SmolLM2, together with a tighter complexity bound in the GPT-2 audit.
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Artificial Intelligence · Cross-listed from q-bio.PE
Boids of a Feather Flock Together - Evolving Prey Behaviours Under Different Predator Attack Strategies
Flocking and schooling are thought to have evolved partly as defences against predation, but how prey should balance social and escape tendencies may depend on the predator's hunting strategy. We extend the predator-prey boids model of Ojo et al. (2023), itself based on Reynolds' boids, by combining six prey movement tendencies (alignment, cohesion, separation, dodge, repel and wiggle) into a single weighted acceleration update, and by reformulating wiggle as a sinusoidal manoeuvre. We then use an evolutionary strategy to optimise the six behaviour coefficients for collective prey survival against four predator hunting strategies: attack-centroid, attack-nearest, attack-random and attack-peripheral. Across five independent trials per strategy, coefficients converged within trials and mean fitness remained stable or increased, although trials often settled in different local optima. Prey survival was highest under attack-centroid and lowest under attack-nearest, in line with our hypotheses. Against attack-centroid, prey evolved individualistic predator avoidance with high escape coefficients, whereas against the other three strategies they largely kept their flock formation. Across all strategies, evolution favoured a low repel coefficient and relatively high dodge and wiggle coefficients. Our results suggest that optimal anti-predator behaviour depends on the interplay between escape tendencies and the predator's hunting strategy.
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Machine Learning
TopoEmbedX: A General Framework for Representation Learning on Topological Domains
Topological structures such as simplicial complexes, hypergraphs, and cell complexes extend standard graph models by modeling higher-order relationships. These structures appear in many modern datasets and require specialized methods for generating meaningful embeddings. In this paper, we introduce TopoEmbedX, a unified framework for embedding a wide range of topological domains into Euclidean spaces. The package brings together several existing topological embedding algorithms—DeepCell, Cell2Vec, CellDiff2Vec, HOLE, and HOGLEE—and introduces five new algorithms: ComplexNetMF, ComplexRep, ComplexRandNE, ComplexWalklets, and ComplexHeat. These algorithms extend well-known graph embedding techniques to higher-order settings using the augmented Hasse graph of a topological domain. TopoEmbedX provides a clear, consistent, and easy-to-use framework for topological representation learning. Experiments show that the embeddings generated by TopoEmbedX support tasks such as classification and regression across multidimensional data.