Papers

Reliable intervention-oriented uncertainty quantification from Earth observation (EO) remains challenging when continuous treatment shifts, spatial dependence, limited support, and satellite-outcome uncertainty must be addressed simultaneously. Existing causal, conformal, and spatial approaches address parts of this problem, but their direct combination does not generally recover the appropriate interventional reference law because candidate reassignment jointly alters treatment likelihood, standardized residuals, and graph-dependent residual likelihood. This study presents GeoDose-CP, a support-aware conformal framework for localized stochastic potential outcomes under continuous or mixed continuous-atomic treatment. Its central methodological contribution is a graph-local target-orbit law that jointly represents intervention-induced treatment shift, the inverse outcome-scale Jacobian, and spatial residual dependence. The framework further provides exact weighted candidate inversion, a scalable sparse approximation with explicit discrepancy accounting, and refusal under inadequate support. Evaluation used controlled known-truth experiments, MineDoseBench, treatment-density sensitivity analysis, external conformal comparators, and a multi-mine New South Wales (NSW) study. In MineDoseBench, GeoDose-CP achieved mean selective coverage of 0.9692 across 27 configurations and a minimum local q0.05 of 0.8951; exact-sparse auditing produced nine inclusion disagreements over 2,700 targets. In the NSW study, the absence of an auditable longitudinal rehabilitation treatment rendered treatment-dependent inference nonoperational rather than forcing inference through a proxy exposure.

Speech and voice are multidimensional signals that capture both communicative intent and underlying physiological processes, providing a unique, non-invasive window into health. Analyzing these signals has the potential to yield digital biomarkers that (i) provide scalable, objective measurement tools for research and clinical care and (ii) reflect the presence or progression of diverse conditions, including neurological, psychiatric, respiratory, and cardiovascular disorders. Realizing this promise, however, requires the field to overcome pervasive reproducibility and generalizability issues due to heterogeneous data collection, processing, and analysis practices. A major source of this heterogeneity is how underlying acoustic measures themselves are defined and computed. In this paper, we outline key considerations across the speech biomarker discovery lifecycle, from data collection through machine learning modeling to clinical interpretation, needed to achieve reliable, reproducible, and clinically translatable results. Chief among these is the need for harmonization efforts to start from common, precisely specified measure definitions. As a first step, we therefore provide definitions, physiological correlates, and computational implementations for a minimal, clinically interpretable set of core speech measures spanning respiration, phonation, articulation, and fluency. We close by discussing ongoing standardization efforts and the open challenges that remain in advancing the adoption of speech- and voice-based digital biomarkers.

Heterogeneous robot teams distribute complementary capabilities across specialized agents, but their physical roles and capacities typically remain fixed throughout a mission. We present HARP, a Heterogeneous Aerial Robotic modules Platform in which independently deployable aerial robots physically reconfigure to compose their capabilities for field operations. HARP comprises sensor-equipped scouts, flydrive rover modules, and task-specific payload modules. Scouts map the environment and inform an energy-aware planner that jointly selects routes and air-ground mobility modes. Rover and payload modules fly independently across terrain that constrains ground travel, then autonomously assemble into a cooperative ground vehicle for energy-efficient payload transport. Motivated by environmental sampling in remote and difficult-to-traverse regions, we evaluate HARP through field experiments spanning sensing, planning, reconfiguration, airground mobility, payload transport, and task execution. We further conduct module-level deployment tests on the Greenland Ice Sheet toward future autonomous missions. HARP demonstrates how heterogeneous robot teams can adapt not only their actions, but also how their physical capabilities are composed during a mission.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly involved in family education, yet HCI has not systematically explained the educational interactions that emerge around them. This scoping review analyzes 53 HCI studies from 6,540 records across 19 venues. Using activity theory and AODM, it relates participants and educational objects to mediation, labour, and rules. We find that the literature centers on child–parent interaction and on language, AI literacy, and relational learning. The introduction of LLMs enabled conversational, embodied, and spatial systems to generate support from the context of an unfolding interaction. LLMs redistributed educational labour, while family and institutional rules left parents and professionals responsible for interpreting outputs and deciding how they entered practice. Evidence across families and educational purposes remains limited, especially on sustained personalization, repair labour, and how families negotiate authority and rules. The review offers a framework explaining how LLM capabilities become organized through family participation.

By hinging on the assumption that a system to be controlled is fully unknown, many data-driven control approaches do not leverage available or readily inferable priors. In contrast to this viewpoint, this paper analyzes the impact of using the system's equilibrium subspace to inform direct and indirect linear quadratic regulation. For the indirect case, we show how including a constraint on the equilibrium subspace in the identification problem changes the statistical properties of the learned model. In particular, we show that enforcing consistency with respect to the equilibrium subspace leads to a reduction in the estimator variance that, in turn, enhances model-based control performance. In the direct case, we show how this prior can be leveraged to gain insight into the controlled system without requiring an explicit identification step. These results are supported by both numerical and experimental evidence, showcasing the advantages of explicitly leveraging the equilibrium manifold as a prior in data-driven control.

Audio-language models can produce confident answers unsupported by the audio, motivating uncertainty estimates that identify unreliable responses. We compare probability-based, sampling-based, self-verification, evidential, and contrastive measures across four open-weight models and five audio QA benchmarks. In multiple-choice evaluation, first-token measures are strongest overall, with top-1 probability achieving a mean AUROC of .740, compared with .708 for ten-sample discrete semantic entropy, while requiring no additional model calls. Across four benchmarks, shifting from multiple-choice to open-ended evaluation lowers mean accuracy from 57.6% to 36.6%, yet uncertainty remains predictive of errors: semantic entropy, maximum token entropy, and semantic agreement achieve mean AUROCs of .697, .694, and .693, respectively. To test whether uncertainty reflects the evidence available to answer the question, we perform input ablations that remove either the audio or the question. Across top-1 confidence, entropy, and sampling-based measures, removing audio reduces error-detection AUROC by .101 on average, compared with .010 when removing the question. Together, these results establish efficient uncertainty baselines and show that uncertainty in audio-language models depends substantially more on available audio evidence than on question text.

Sim-to-real transfer has made substantial progress, but can still produce controllers that remain stable and functional on hardware while suffering from degraded tracking accuracy due to residual dynamics mismatch. Correcting these errors typically requires identifying the underlying system dynamics, adapting the control policy, or returning to simulation for additional training and finetuning, all of which can require substantial data and computation. We propose OSRAM (Online Sim-to-Real Adaptation via Closed-Loop System Modeling), a framework that instead adapts the reference commands provided to an existing controller. OSRAM treats the deployed robot and its policy as a unified closed-loop dynamical system and learns its task-level command-response behavior directly from tracking observations. A closed-loop dynamics model is meta-trained across randomized dynamics in simulation and rapidly finetuned after deployment using limited real-world interaction. The adapted model is then used to optimize future reference commands while leaving the underlying control policy unchanged. We evaluate OSRAM on bipedal velocity tracking and loco-manipulation in simulation and on hardware. Results show that closed-loop modeling improves prediction and tracking accuracy under unseen dynamics, while online reference adaptation reduces residual sim-to-real tracking errors across different control objectives and hardware configurations. These results demonstrate that adapting the behavior of the robot-policy closed loop provides a practical alternative to finetuning the policy or identifying the full physical dynamics for sim-to-real transfer. More information can be found at http://generalroboticslab.com/OSRAM.

New words are invented every day. A human listener can learn a new word by hearing it clearly once and inferring its usage from sentence context. This paper proposes granting ASR a similar ability to learn the contextual representations and spellings of new words from unlabeled test data at test time. A frozen CTC acoustic model provides spellings, a frozen language model provides contextual evidence for out-of-vocabulary (OOV) word detection, and an adaptation module expands the vocabulary by learning the lexical token representations with distributions over CTC-generated candidates. The spelling model of each token is optimized by minimizing a Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) objective. We demonstrate that the CTC-weighted language model log likelihood ratio can be interpreted as the KLD between the unknown correct ASR and the unsupervised learned ASR, and that, using a Pinsker bound, the square root of KLD can be interpreted as an upper bound on the total variation distance between the true and estimated spelling of the unknown word. Experiments show relative OOV character-error-rate reductions of up to 14.97% on LibriSpeech and 6.67% on dysarthric Speech Accessibility Project data for recurring OOV words, relative to the corresponding rescoring system.

Forecasting requires large language model (LLM) agents to gather evolving evidence, revise their beliefs, and make calibrated predictions over time. Yet evaluating and improving these capabilities is challenging because real-world events unfold continuously and outcomes may take months to resolve. We introduce Forecast-Dojo, a replayable environment that reconstructs resolved prediction-market events as sequences of dated forecasting steps, enabling reproducible evaluation, longitudinal analysis, and training from agent interactions. It comprises 1,568 Polymarket events split temporally into training and evaluation sets, alongside 18.8 million dated news articles. Across 12 models, research tools consistently improve forecasting performance, and greater capture of new evidence is associated with larger improvements over time. Nevertheless, all models trail historical market forecasts, while carrying a belief notebook across dates reduces research costs without consistently improving forecast quality. We supervise fine-tuned Qwen3-30B-A3B-Thinking-2507 on collected trajectories from Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507 to demonstrate the environment's training utility. The student's accuracy is improved from 34.8% to 42.8% on the evaluation set.

We study how much revenue a seller can lose by restricting attention to selling separately or grand bundling, in the setting of a single additive buyer with independent item values. Although revenue-optimal mechanisms can require lotteries and infinite menus, Babaioff, Immorlica, Lucier, and Weinberg showed that the better of these two simple formats always achieves a constant fraction of optimal revenue. We prove that $\mathrm{OPT} \le 3.52 \max\{\mathrm{SREV}, \mathrm{BREV}\}$, where $\mathrm{SREV}$ and $\mathrm{BREV}$ are the optimal revenues from selling separately and grand bundling, respectively. This improves the previous best-known approximation factor of $5.2$ due to Ma and Simchi-Levi and narrows the gap to the known lower bound of $2$.

Long-running LLM applications repeatedly send growing context, making prefix caching critical for reducing prefill cost. Yet prefix-cache behavior under agentic workloads remains poorly understood. We study production traces from two companies and evaluate 14 eviction algorithms across HBM-constrained and large memory-pool settings. Despite a large gap to Belady, sophisticated policies designed for traditional caches provide little benefit over LRU. The reason is structural: prefix reuse is dominated by the regular pacing of active sessions, making recency unusually predictive. Prefix caching nevertheless introduces new challenges, including heavy-tailed session footprints and highly variable miss costs as attention computation grows with sequence length. We introduce the compute-savings ratio and two offline oracles to quantify these effects. Our results show that effective prefix-cache management should retain recency as its foundation while selectively adding quick demotion for one-hit prefixes, compute-aware partial eviction for expensive misses, and capacity-dependent eviction granularity. We will release the traces and simulator to support future research.

Neural fields for scientific tomography are optimized from 2D images, but the actual quantity of interest is often a latent 3D physical field. Because the forward map is many-to-one, low 2D image error need not certify a correct 3D field. Moreover, the latent field is not directly supervised during training, and its error cannot be evaluated against truth at deployment. We develop CoroNeRF to jointly optimize 3D electron density and temperature fields directly from multiview, multiline intensities through a differentiable atomic-emission renderer. Using solar coronal tomography as a controlled testbed, we evaluate physical-field recovery and test whether cross-seed instability provides a ground-truth-free-at-inference indicator of local physical-field error. We underscore the following two observations. (i) Image fidelity is not field fidelity: spectral ablations show that limited-channel reconstructions can fit their available observations well while recovering substantially worse fields, whereas evaluation on a common richer probe exposes the discrepancy. (ii) Cross-seed instability ranks local physical-field error across tested matched-model conditions, supported by sparsification and physical signal-strength controls. Seed-deviation projections provide complementary directional validation, but shared forward-model mismatch can still produce incorrect cross-seed consensus. These results characterize joint thermodynamic recovery and the usefulness and limits of seed-based error localization in a controlled, single-scene solar tomography testbed.

Action representation plays a central role in discrete-token vision-language-action (VLA) learning but remains underexamined. Under conventional pose-increment representations, action tokens are sensitive to execution speed and dataset-specific normalization, potentially obscuring geometric structure shared across demonstrations and datasets. We introduce Direction-Scale Decomposition (DSD), an action representation that decomposes translation and rotation increments into direction and scale components before tokenization. DSD isolates motion direction while retaining magnitudes in separate scale channels. We evaluate DSD with uniform binning (BIN) and BEAST, a B-spline-based tokenizer, in simulation and real-world manipulation under both single-dataset and mixed-dataset training. On LIBERO, DSD improves average success rates with both tokenizers. On SimplerEnv, DSD-BIN outperforms BIN by 10.3 percentage points in overall success rate under mixed-dataset training. Real-robot experiments further show gains both with and without robotics pretraining. These results support DSD as an effective action representation for discrete-token VLA models and suggest its potential to mitigate performance degradation when training on large and diverse dataset mixtures. Our project page with additional resources is available at https://vla-dsd.github.io/

GPU acceleration is now routine across robotics, but cloud-hosted GPU continuous integration (CI) runners are expensive, resulting in severe under-testing of GPU-accelerated code. We present pytest-gpu-proof, an open-source pytest plugin offering a practical middle ground. Tests can be run on a local machine, signed with a receipt of exactly what ran and what it produced, and integrated into standard CPU CI workflows (e.g., GitHub Actions). The tool is open source and on PyPI, and we are actively integrating it across our lab's software stack.

Textual descriptions can reduce ambiguity in medical image segmentation by specifying the finding and location to be delineated. Existing text-guided methods mainly improve where image and language features interact but generally retain a single learned update pathway across all image-text pairs. We propose MRSeg, a parameter-efficient framework that uses each image-text pair to route the adaptation of visual and textual features before dense prediction. Frozen ConvNeXt-Tiny and PubMedBERT encoders provide multiscale visual features and clinical text tokens. A joint router uses the deepest visual feature and pooled text to predict a sparse mixture over low-rank adapter bases. The resulting route is shared across separate adapter banks for two visual scales and text, coordinating their adaptation while keeping the feature-specific parameters separate. Region Bridge uses text-derived queries to aggregate dense visual tokens into latent regions, refines these regions through self-attention and text cross-attention, and redistributes the refined information back to the feature maps. Finally, a multiscale decoder combines refined semantic features with shallow image evidence. On QaTa-COV19 and MosMedData+, MRSeg achieves 90.90/83.32 and 81.53/68.82 Dice/mIoU, respectively, with 7.11M trainable parameters and 7.60 GFLOPs. Code: https://github.com/maklachur/MRSeg.

Large language models are increasingly used as inexpensive judges to evaluate outputs, label data, and assess whether a system meets a desired quality standard. Yet using AI judgments for formal statistical inference is fundamentally different from simply treating them as ground-truth labels: AI evaluations can be biased or noisy, and rigorous hypothesis testing requires explicit control of type-I and type-II errors. We study how to use AI judgments, together with selective human verification, to conduct a valid hypothesis test at minimum cost. We consider a population of items with hidden binary labels. After choosing a fixed pool of items, the decision maker can selectively query AI, send an item directly to a human, escalate an AI-scored item to a human after observing the AI report, or stop once sufficient evidence has accumulated. We derive an information-theoretic lower bound that captures the minimum cost of achieving prescribed testing errors and characterizes the value of AI information and human verification through a report-dependent information frontier. Motivated by this characterization, we develop SCALE, a sequential cost-aware policy that combines selective AI scoring with adaptive human escalation. SCALE is valid at finite sample sizes and matches the lower bound to first order as the target error probabilities vanish. We further extend the framework to an unknown AI-output model using paired AI-human pilot data. Numerically, SCALE approaches Human-only or AI-only testing when one source clearly dominates, while achieving its largest savings when inexpensive AI judgments and selective human verification are both valuable.

This study examines how Taiwanese parent-child families negotiate a "good" family life through everyday energy use and imagine future smart homes that support it. We conducted in-home interviews and co-design sessions with 21 families, including 46 parents and children. We found that families pursued a good life through energy practices shaped by thrift, comfort, care, safety, and enjoyment. These arrangements were continually adapted and responded to changing bodies, schedules, people, and infrastructures. This adaptive work was unevenly distributed, which in turn shaped different smart-home imaginaries. Drawing on the lens of Nearby and adversarial design, we conceptualize adaptation as situated sociotechnical work through which families continually rework energy arrangements. We further distinguish collective goods from plural and contestable goods to show why family IoT must support shared values while preserving opportunities to question and revise household arrangements. We offer theoretical and design directions for more adaptive, participatory, and contestable family IoT.

Layer pruning reduces the size and inference cost of vision-language-action (VLA) models, but selecting a deployable configuration requires deciding both which layers to remove and how to recover task performance. These decisions depend on the model and task, and a failed trial can reflect either the deletion set or insufficient recovery. We present AutoPruner, an agent-driven framework that jointly searches pruning structures and recovery recipes through closed-loop experimentation. Offline layer interventions measure changes in action output to provide functional evidence. An LLM agent combines this evidence with evaluation history and retained diagnoses to propose deletion sets and recovery recipes within a search budget. Each proposal is executed and evaluated on the target tasks, and the resulting feedback guides the next experiment. Across OpenVLA-OFT, StarVLA, and FastWAM on four LIBERO suites, AutoPruner removes 16.7–87.5% of backbone layers while maintaining task success above 90%, with measured inference speedups of up to 2.50$\times$. Further analysis shows that functional probes identify action-sensitive layers despite high representation similarity, and that recovery can make previously failing structures viable.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have emerged as an effective paradigm for scaling large language models, yet their massive parameter footprint poses severe memory challenges for deployment. Existing compression methods typically treat expert pruning and merging as disjoint operations and rely on greedy heuristics, often leading to irreversible information loss or representational pollution. In this paper, we propose PRIME, a unified optimization framework for MoE compression via adaptive PRunIng and MErging. PRIME casts the discrete prune-merge assignment step as a global Integer Linear Programming over a frequency-weighted surrogate objective, jointly selecting pruning and merging decisions while accounting for expert usage. We motivate the frequency-aware objective through an error-bound analysis under fixed representative assignments, and show that the formulation favors high-frequency experts as centroids, promoting routing stability. Extensive experiments on Qwen3-30B-A3B and Qwen3.5-122B-A10B demonstrate that PRIME achieves strong accuracy retention across knowledge, coding, math, and long-context tasks, while serving benchmarks of merged models quantify the memory and throughput benefits of expert compression in vLLM.

Compositional generalization remains challenging when language models must combine familiar reasoning operations in unfamiliar ways. The Scenario-Based Commonsense Reasoning Evaluation (SCoRE) 2026 tests this ability on three mixed domains absent from training and requires models to identify the complete set of correct options for each question. We introduce Route-Verify-Vote (RVV), a framework for procedure-conditioned self-consistency that uses language models without parameter updates. Route uses the provided domain label to select a reasoning procedure that guides the model in representing and applying the relevant constraints. Verify prompts the model to assess each option against those constraints. Vote aggregates complete answer sets and allocates additional samples to questions with a small vote-count margin between the two most frequent sets. Samples for each question follow the same domain-specific procedure. On the official test set, voting over 16 sampled answer sets per question achieves an exact-set accuracy of 74.6%. Adaptive RVV reaches 77.3%, and combining models on selected domain routes raises accuracy to 79.4%. The final system ranked second among participating systems. These results support domain-specific reasoning procedures and answer-set disagreement as useful tools for allocating inference-time computation in mixed-domain reasoning.

X-ray image-based Radiology Report Generation (RRG) constitutes a critical research direction within medical artificial intelligence, with great potential to alleviate clinicians' diagnostic workload and shorten patient waiting periods. Despite substantial advances over recent years, the field faces evident bottlenecks stemming from insufficient standardized benchmarks and inadequate domain adaptation of generic large models. Notably, the newly released CheXpert Plus dataset is provided without accompanying baseline implementations and evaluation results, which impedes standardized training, quantitative evaluation and fair comparison among follow-up algorithms. To mitigate this limitation, we establish a comprehensive benchmark encompassing prevailing X-ray report generation models and Large Language Models on CheXpert Plus. This benchmark delivers a reliable comparative foundation for upcoming methods and enables researchers to rapidly identify state-of-the-art approaches within this domain. Beyond benchmark construction, we rethink X-ray RRG under the paradigm of large models and propose a novel framework termed MambaXray-PRB. Our framework improves report generation performance and enhances model interpretability via multi-stage large-model pre-training and multi-modal Chain-of-Thought reasoning. The pipeline consists of three successive phases: self-supervised auto-regressive modeling, X-ray-report contrastive learning, and post-training optimization for reasoning and report generation. Extensive experiments on IU X-ray, MIMIC-CXR, and CheXpert Plus datasets validate the effectiveness of MambaXray-PRB for radiology report generation. The source code of this paper is available on https://github.com/Event-AHU/Medical_Image_Analysis

We present Go2-DrivoR, a goal-conditioned adaptation of the end-to-end autonomous driving trajectory planning framework DrivoR for urban navigation with quadrupedal robots. By conditioning trajectory generation on a local-frame subgoal through a goal token and adapting the vehicle-centric scoring formulation, the method extends DrivoR to short-horizon goal-conditioned local planning without redesigning its core decoders. Specifically, we redefine drivable-area compliance for sidewalk-oriented navigation and reformulate the original ego progress term as goal-conditioned ego progress. Trained exclusively on TartanGround simulation data, Go2-DrivoR improves waypoint-conditioned planning performance on unseen simulation environments and transfers zero-shot to open-loop real-world trajectory prediction.

As context windows scale to tens or hundreds of thousands of tokens, KV cache compression has become essential for efficient LLM inference. Existing methods fall into three families: score-based eviction, summary compensation, and offload-and-recall. Yet all three decide what to keep or recall by content relevance to the current query. We show this shared design is structurally incomplete. A cache supports two access modes: associative lookup by content and sequential traversal by position; current compressors implement only the first. The gap matters in practice: retrieval-augmented generation, code completion, and structured-data extraction all require the model to reproduce identifiers, field values, or code tokens verbatim from the context. Under compression, content-based eviction retains the head of such a sequence but discards its continuation, causing verbatim copying to break irreversibly midway, a failure we call sequential forgetting. This failure resists better scoring, larger budgets, summary compensation, and dynamic re-scoring; it is the dominant source of remaining quality loss under compression. We propose KVFetch, a training-free, drop-in framework that opens a temporal recall channel for any score-based compressor. It demotes evicted candidates to a quantized cold tier, detects active copying through a monotone read pointer, and prefetches positional successors into fixed-size hot-tier slots without increasing attention cost. On RULER-16K under an iso-budget control, KVFetch recovers verbatim copying from 0.8 to 78.4 and raises the 13-task average by +8.4, with gains concentrating on tasks that require sequential access. On LongBench, where no task requires sequential access, the channel remains dormant and imposes no cost.

We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the visual exploration of textual corpora. We introduce zero-shot visualization (ZSV), a task in which users specify concepts in natural language and documents are mapped onto the corresponding concept axes for visualization. Building a ZSV system of practical value is non-trivial, as it requires choices at the intersection of feature functions, efficient implementation tradeoffs, and pre/post-processing decisions affecting visualization quality. To that end, we establish a benchmark that compares methods spanning embedding similarity, direct semantic judgments, and conditional likelihood estimation in this setting. Across multiple datasets and use cases we evaluate the properties of different scoring methods and design choices in terms of semantic faithfulness, score fidelity, and computational cost. Our results identify that scoring based on next-token probabilities offers the strongest practical trade-off among the evaluated methods. We further apply this approach to unlabeled corpora to examine its behavior in realistic exploratory settings. These experiments highlight additional design considerations, including the use of graded axes together with binary relevance filtering, and reveal a compositional sentiment bias in off-topic documents. Based on these findings, we provide practical guidelines for constructing end-to-end ZSV baselines.

We characterize the regret attainable in online convex optimization when access to the feasible set is limited to an exact linear optimization oracle. The learner is given an inscribed ball and a diameter bound and must remain feasible on every consistent instance. For convex $G$-Lipschitz losses, diameter at most $D$, a total allowance of $Q$ oracle calls, and a strict limit of $B$ calls per round, the dimension-free minimax expected regret is $\Theta(GD\max\{\sqrt T,T/(1+\min\{Q,BT\})^{1/4}\})$. The lower bound applies to arbitrary randomized learners. Universal feasibility first forces each action into the hull of the supplied ball and the preceding oracle replies. A fixed-body construction then couples fresh phase directions to a shared simplex, making useful replies costly repeatedly even though all losses have a common minimizer. A counted approximate-gradient method with interleaved blocks attains the matching rate. Total-budget and strict per-round guarantees follow as special cases, including the $T^{3/4}$ rate with one call per round and the quadratic total budget needed for $\sqrt T$ regret. For prescribed smoothness $\beta$, an analytic construction yields a curvature-dependent lower bound and identifies the threshold above which the general characterization remains sharp.

Audits of AI visibility summarise the brand recommendations of deployed language models into per-system profiles. We test whether such a profile describes the system on one corpus of 6,475 stored responses (6,324 analysable) collected between December 2025 and February 2026 from five deployed endpoints across gift-recommendation, corporate-reputation and category-ownership queries. The collection harness cut many answers short: 83.1% of Gemini 3 Flash answers in category ownership end mid-sentence under a 1,024-token output cap. With every answer cut to its first 800 characters, a character n-gram classifier cross-validated by prompt attributes one response to GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Flash, Gemini 3 Flash with search, Grok or Perplexity sonar-pro with 97.84% accuracy (5,028 responses, 383 prompts, majority class 31.5%, 30 split seeds). Length alone falls to the majority rate, 24 formatting statistics reach 95.79%, and masking brand names and capitalised tokens leaves 97.72%. Held-out query conditions keep 97.43% weighted by size and 88.0% unweighted; in a retrieval-grounded arm that changes the harness, no Grok answer is attributed to Grok (0/120). Aggregated into 50 model-by-domain-by-condition units, twelve behavioural features separate four systems at 66.53% under grouped cross-validation, against a label-permutation null with mean 33.71% and 95th percentile 46.0%. Across domains the aggregate profile fails: a forest trained on category-ownership units assigns all 22 gift units to the wrong system, consistent with a reversal in brand volume (8.41 against 0.94 brands per response in gifts, 3.01 against 3.91 in category ownership), while single responses transfer at 89.92% balanced accuracy. The surface form of an answer carries the system across the query domains tested; aggregated brand behaviour does not, and the uncrossed design cannot separate the system from the domain or the harness.

Memorization audits of generative models read similarity scores against thresholds, with no null distribution, and the conclusions they support can be wrong. By MemBench's rule, the benchmark's mitigations roughly halve Stable Diffusion's memorization; audited with false-discovery control, two thirds of the certified images are no longer detected under random prompt perturbations, five sixths under attention rescaling, and all of them under embedding optimization. The field's data-copying test, read against its own null, flags ten of twenty-four generators that reproduce nothing. We argue that for memorization the null is the hard part, and supply two. For a whole model, training and held-out images are exchangeable given its samples, and relabelling them is a permutation test, exact for any statistic when the held-out images are a random split; under it, a nearest-neighbour preference still fires on seven of those twenty-four, and a count restricted to the near-duplicate scale on none (McNemar p=0.016). For single images, the natural nulls fail twice, measurably: ranking an image among random images yields 596 false discoveries among 2,365 controls, and resampling independent generations makes the null three times too narrow. Calibrated against matched controls, the audit certifies 36 of 61 MemBench images at 5% false-discovery rate, held-out controls are certified in 0.01% of calibration splits, and on this benchmark two generations per image recover that count. A calibrated maximum, which reads occasional rather than typical copying, certifies 46. As the scale-restricted statistic we recommend the small-scale mass of the Intersection Euler Characteristic Profile, which also counts distinct images copied and tests whether two models copy the same ones.

Model failover restores availability, but changes which financial institutions share decision errors. We formulate outage-contingent routing through a local market-impact response matrix and study expected squared price displacement. A symmetric construction shows that a shared backup can leave an order-one concentration floor as the number of primary endpoints grows, while balanced fallback risk decreases inversely with the surviving endpoint count. For indivisible decisions, we derive the exact second moment of independent randomized routing and an effective-exposure granularity that determines its gap from fractional allocation. Conditional-expectation rounding gives a finite-agent bound without coupled quotas; a separate swap procedure preserves endpoint counts and is assessed against dual lower bounds. Across 60 synthetic portfolio networks and 11,340 scenario evaluations, the latter reduces risk by 6.57% and 10.53% for single and double endpoint removals at the central feedback setting with independent errors. A replay of 1,024 recorded API responses on constructed rebalancing tasks gives a smaller held-out reduction of 3.30% (paired bootstrap interval 2.07–4.57%). Strongly aligned errors, inferior endpoints, and indivisibility limit diversification. The contribution is an auditable routing stress test and implementation analysis, not an estimate of real-market crash probabilities.

Long-term memory agents increasingly rely on it- erative search and reusable experience to answer questions over large personal, factual, or narrative histories. However, current experience-memory systems largely optimize relevance: they re- trieve past search lessons that appear similar to the current state and inject them into the prompt. A relevant experience can still be harmful when the memory substrate, question intent, answer granularity, or evidence boundary changes. We propose CAVE- Mem, a training-free framework that represents experience as a typed intervention operator with applicability, boundary, and utility conditions. CAVE-Mem first obtains a base memory-search answer, then allows an operator to change it only if the oper- ator matches the current substrate, answer contract, evidence boundary, and cross-fitted utility; otherwise the system abstains. Experiments across long-term conversational memory, multi-hop question answering, and long-document narrative reasoning show consistent gains over relevance-only experience reuse.

Spacecraft thermal design requires repeated evaluation of how variations in the number and spatial arrangement of heat-generating components and in thermal boundary conditions affect the temperature field. High-fidelity numerical simulations are computationally expensive and therefore difficult to use for large-scale design screening. Although surrogate models can accelerate temperature-field prediction, existing approaches generally encode each complete configuration as a whole and do not explicitly exploit the reusability of local physical constituents across configurations, which limits their accuracy for component counts and combinations not covered during training. To address this issue, we propose the Tree-Structured Factor Composition Network (TFCN), which decomposes complex spacecraft thermal configurations into reusable local physical factors and employs a tree-structured composition module to learn the global temperature-field response associated with different factor combinations. TFCN is evaluated on two-dimensional steady-state spacecraft thermal-analysis cases with prescribed-temperature and radiative-flux boundary conditions. The model is trained exclusively on configurations containing no more than 15 heat-generating components and evaluated on unseen configurations containing 16-25 components. For the prescribed-temperature and radiative-flux cases, TFCN achieves component-count out-of-distribution RMSE values of 4.21 K and 18.62 K, respectively, representing reductions of 65.6% and 33.6% relative to the strongest baseline. These results demonstrate that TFCN improves the reliability of temperature-field prediction under variations in component count and provides an efficient surrogate for rapid spacecraft thermal-design evaluation and large-scale configuration screening.