Peer Revenue Publish or profit

Papers

Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.

Computer Science Machine Learning

cs.LG Watch Machine Learning (sign in to use)

Sunday 9 August

Machine Learning

The Cost of Adaptivity: Matching Lower Bounds Across Learning Problems

Adaptive procedures must work without nuisance information an oracle may use, such as a gradient scale or smoothness index, and robust procedures may have to answer queries whose coordinate and inspection time are chosen only after the data are seen. Such comparisons are meaningful only when the oracle advantage and validity contract are stated explicitly. We formalize nuisance adaptation via a slice-normalized minimax ratio retaining the worst-case instance within each nuisance slice, and separately define the robustness cost of expanding from one preannounced Gaussian query to arbitrary post-hoc inspection. Our main result is a finite-horizon composition law for Gaussian certification: from M independent coordinates, a familywise certifier protecting every coordinate and time up to T pays optimal normalized squared half-width of order log(eM) + log log(e^eT), within the sample-mean-centered rectangular class. Epoch stitching gives the upper bound; independent Gaussian block increments across coordinates and geometric time scales give a matching lower bound, already holding on a geometric checkpoint grid, forcing quantiles of the realized maximum width so selection and stopping taxes add. Two benchmark regimes complete the picture: unknown gradient scale in online convex optimization has constant cost, while pointwise adaptation over nested Holder classes costs order (log n / log log n)^(s1/(2s1+1)). Cast as model monitoring, the law lets an analyst inspect any of M slice metrics at any data-dependent time: the naive fixed-query band's selected coverage degrades sharply, to 0.30 at M=1 and to zero for M>=10, while the epoch-stitched certifier holds familywise coverage at an additive iterated-logarithm width cost. Experiments put both sharp predictions at risk of refutation; both survive.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Hybrid Neural-Classical Correction for Frozen Time Series Foundation Models: A Comprehensive Ablation Study on High-Frequency Stock Prediction

Foundation models for time series forecasting demonstrate impressive zero-shot generalization but often underperform on specialized domains such as high-frequency finance. We present a comprehensive study of hybrid neural-classical correction for adapting frozen TimesFM (200M parameters) to stock return prediction during the volatile opening trading hour. We compare two neural correction architectures - AttnCorrect (multi-head self-attention, approximately 471K parameters) and GatedLinear (low-rank bilinear projection with gating, approximately 49K parameters) - each augmented with Random Forest residual learning. Through systematic ablation across 10 major technology stocks (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, TSLA, NFLX) spanning 2 million data points, we reveal critical insights: (1) The hybrid neural-classical approach achieves 0.597 pooled correlation and 6.4x mean per-day correlation improvement over frozen TimesFM; (2) Classical residual learning (Random Forest) provides the largest single-component contribution, matching or exceeding the neural correction component; (3) Simpler neural architectures surprisingly outperform complex ones when classical residual learning is removed; (4) Self-attention provides the largest neural-only contribution. GatedLinear+RF achieves best overall performance with 9x fewer neural parameters than AttnCorrect+RF. We report three complementary correlation metrics - mean per-day, cross-day cumulative, and pooled - to provide a complete picture of predictive quality. Our results provide practical guidance: effective foundation model adaptation requires careful integration of neural and classical components, with classical methods playing a crucial complementary role.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Distilling Vision-Language Models for Robust Traffic Sign Perception in Autonomous Vehicles

Traffic sign recognition (TSR) models based on deep neural networks achieve strong clean-data performance but remain vulnerable to physically realizable adversarial attacks, including shadow perturbations, natural-light interference, and printed patches. Existing defenses often improve robustness against one attack type while degrading performance on others, and can reduce clean accuracy. We propose LAMDA (Language-Anchored Model for Direction Alignment), a training framework that transfers language-grounded structure into TSR models without using adversarial examples or adding inference-time overhead. LAMDA builds two fixed prototype banks from VLM-generated sign descriptions and class names using a frozen OpenCLIP text encoder, and uses them to supervise visual features through two complementary auxiliary losses during training. At inference, the adapter and prototype banks are discarded, leaving a standard backbone and classifier. Evaluated on GTSRB and LISA across four backbones and three physical attack types, LAMDA is the only method among ten evaluated that consistently improves robustness across all attack-backbone-dataset combinations, with gains of up to +12.5 pp under shadow attacks and +13.2 pp under natural-light attacks, while preserving or improving clean accuracy in nearly all cases.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

360CityArena: A Realistic Virtual Urban Navigation Benchmark for Embodied Agents

We present 360CityArena, a benchmark for evaluating the urban exploration capabilities of embodied agents within a photorealistic environment constructed from 360-degree videos. Existing outdoor benchmarks either lack sufficient photorealism or complexity, resulting in a considerable gap from real-world urban environments. 360CityArena is built on a realistic reconstruction of the Akihabara district in Tokyo, Japan, using 602 360-degree video segments covering 85 streets, and consists of 175 meticulously human-crafted tasks. It encompasses three task categories: Environment Understanding, Path Reasoning, and Spatial Reasoning, covering fundamental abilities required for urban exploration, such as localization, landmark search, path planning, and relational spatial reasoning, thereby enabling comprehensive evaluation in realistic urban scenes. Our evaluation using state-of-the-art LMM-based agents shows that even the strongest model, Gemini 2.5 Flash, performs far below human level (human: 77.3% vs. Gemini 2.5 Flash: 17.1%), revealing substantial challenges that remain in city-scale embodied navigation and reasoning. 360CityArena provides a necessary and challenging testbed for photorealistic urban-district navigation and spatial reasoning.
Read the full abstract

All authors Kenta Watanabe, Atsuyuki Miyai, Mizuki Takenawa, Kiyoharu Aizawa, Toshihiko Yamasaki

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY

ML-Based Hierarchical Prediction for Practical Energy Scheduling in Dynamic NTN-WPT Systems

With advancements in long-distance wireless power transfer (WPT) and space-based energy technologies, integrating WPT into non-terrestrial networks (NTNs), referred to as NTN-WPT, is emerging as a promising approach for next-generation wireless networks. This paper proposes an energy-scheduling approach that jointly optimizes energy efficiency, task completion rate, and task waiting time for power transfer from low Earth orbit satellites to terrestrial mobile user devices (UDs). To address scheduling challenges caused by satellite and UD mobility and channel uncertainty from stochastic propagation effects, we decompose the problem into three subproblems within a three-layer predictive framework: 1) a state prediction layer forecasts UD and satellite states; 2) an interaction mapping layer uses a graph neural network (GNN) to model energy transfer efficiency; and 3) a decision-making layer determines the energy allocation plan. Distinct machine learning (ML) methods are tailored to each layer. To balance the competing objectives, we adopt a multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) technique that scalarizes them into a weighted-sum reward, transforming the multi-objective problem into a tractable single-objective problem. We further introduce a multi-agent deep learning model integrating self-attention with multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) to improve objective balancing. Simulation results show that the proposed approach achieves a better overall trade-off than baseline methods, maintaining competitive task completion rates and energy efficiency while reducing task waiting times, and remains robust under highly variable conditions.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP

End-to-End Neural Decomposition with Koopman Operators for Time-Series Forecasting

Koopman theory offers a linear-operator view of nonlinear sequence dynamics by lifting observations into a space where evolution is governed by a linear time-invariant Koopman operator. While the Koopman operator provides a linear representation of nonlinear dynamics, it is generally infinite dimensional and defined under time-invariant assumptions. To model non-stationary signals with frequency-dependent behavior, a frequency-varying extension is required. In recent years, deep learning has been increasingly employed to exploit its powerful function-approximation ability for learning the Koopman operator. In this study, we propose a novel approach called neural decomposition Koopman (NDKoop), an end-to-end architecture that integrates a learnable signal decomposition module with both frequency-independent and frequency-dependent Koopman based networks for sequence forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to jointly realize end-to end Koopman modeling and signal decomposition within a unified neural framework. We demonstrate that decomposing a signal into a frequency-independent trend component and a frequency-dependent periodic component, each governed by a corresponding Koopman operator, improves prediction accuracy when perfect linearization is unattainable. Numerical experiments across several forecasting benchmarks indicate that the proposed NDKoop provides strong performance.
Read the full abstract

All authors De-Yan Lu, Xugang Lu, Yu Tsao, Jian-Jiun Ding

Machine Learning

Quantum-Classical Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Solving Fuzzy Differential Equations

In this study, we propose a quantum-classical physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold network (QCPIKAN) dedicated to the solution of fuzzy differential equations. The network takes the spatiotemporal coordinates and membership level as joint inputs and employs ChebyKAN modules and a parameterized quantum circuit to construct a hybrid function approximator. It simultaneously approximates the lower and upper endpoint functions associated with the {\alpha}-cuts and incorporates the governing equations, initial-boundary conditions, and fuzzy-structural constraints into the training objective. Theoretically, a unified error-analysis framework is established for QCPIKAN and PIKAN, in which the endpoint-solution error is decomposed into approximation, sampling, optimization, and fuzzy-structure constraint errors. Under the assumptions of well-posedness and residual stability, it is proved that QCPIKAN has a smaller a priori error bound when the representational gain introduced by quantum entanglement features exceeds the additional computational error. Numerical experiments are conducted for elliptic, parabolic, and hyperbolic equations in an ideal quantum-simulation environment. The results show that QCPIKAN captures the overall contraction of the solution interval as increases. At most tested membership levels, the mean relative L2 error of PIKAN is approximately 1.1-2.7 times that of QCPIKAN. In the fuzzy convection example, the mean wavefront-position error of PIKAN is approximately 1.77 times that of QCPIKAN. Nevertheless, both models still exhibit local fuzzy-structure violations near boundaries, in high-gradient regions, and around the wavefront. These results indicate that QCPIKAN provides a quantum-classical hybrid physics-informed computational framework with comparatively high predictive accuracy for solving fuzzy partial differential equations represented by {\alpha}-cuts.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

A Mean-Field Framework for Inference-Time Distributional Control of Diffusion Models

Diffusion models are increasingly used as controllable samplers, whose generations can be steered at inference time according to a chosen reward function. While such rewards are typically defined on individual samples, for many applications it is desirable to steer according to distribution-level rewards, for example to calibrate with population-level information or to encourage diversity. In both cases, simply incorporating the reward gradient into the dynamics, while often effective, comes with few theoretical guarantees on the sampled distribution. For pointwise rewards, recent work has therefore sought to develop a principled framework for targeting a prescribed tilted distribution using particle reweighting. However, an analogous theoretically-grounded approach for distributional rewards is currently lacking. In this work, we formulate inference-time distributional control as targeting a tilted measure under a mean-field framework, and derive a weighted interacting particle scheme to target it in a principled manner. Our framework recovers pointwise-reward steering as a special case, while providing a theoretical foundation for existing batch-level steering methods. Empirically, we verify that the procedure correctly targets the prescribed distribution in tractable low-dimensional settings, and investigate its behaviour in higher-dimensional protein conformation tasks.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Learning from Consensus and Disagreement: Unsupervised On-Policy Self-Distillation with Minority-Trajectory Contrast

On-policy self-distillation improves language-model reasoning by querying a teacher on states actually visited by the student. Recent methods create a powerful information asymmetry by exposing the teacher to privileged context, yet they fundamentally rely on external supervision—such as gold solutions or verifiers—to construct this advantage. We introduce CoDA (Consensus and Disagreement Alignment), a fully unsupervised framework that creates reliable privileged information entirely from the latent uncertainty structure of a model's own unlabeled rollouts. CoDA extracts two complementary signals. In the positive branch, answer-level consensus identifies a stable reasoning mode, which conditions a frozen self-teacher to provide dense distributional guidance on fresh student trajectories. However, because agreement does not guarantee correctness, positive-only distillation risks amplifying correlated errors into a false consensus. To break this harmful feedback loop, CoDA incorporates a negative branch that exploits disagreement: minority trajectories are treated as unstable alternatives and gently penalized via a reference-anchored, KTO-style calibration objective. This unpaired binary feedback provides robust regularization without requiring the strong assumption that the consensus is the absolute ground truth. Empirical evaluations on competition-level mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that CoDA significantly improves reasoning, outperforming self-generated baselines and effectively stabilizing training against erroneous consensus.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jiaxin Guo, Yanwei Yue, Xuanbo Fan, Chunyu Yang, Yan Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Can We Optimize the Performance-Carbon Emission Break-Even Point?: The Quest for Greener LLMs

The carbon footprint of any deployed Large Language Model (LLM) accumulates during inference, where repeated use of the model substantially exceeds the one-time cost of fine-tuning. Yet most efficiency interventions target either pre-training scale or post-hoc compression. We ask whether folding a calibrated, differentiable energy surrogate into the fine-tuning objective can produce inference behavior that gains task accuracy at zero or near-zero carbon cost, a break-even configuration. We propose a joint loss mechanism with a per-model carbon-emission parameter, a linear surrogate over parameter norm, FLOP proxy, and a memory proxy, fit from on-hardware energy profiling. We fine-tune three architecturally distinct families: Gemma-2 2B, Llama-3.1 8B, and Qwen-2.5 14B, and evaluate inference F1 and CO$_2$ emissions on three MMLU subjects: abstract algebra, philosophy, and formal logic. We discover from several outcomes that the carbon term behaves as either harmful interference or beneficial regularization depending on the task structure. We position calibrated carbon-aware fine-tuning as a lightweight, drop-in regularizer with a non-empty but model and task-dependent break-even region. This is an ongoing work, and we will release our codebase soon.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) seeks to optimize sequential decisions to maximize population-level benefits over time. However, when deployed in high-stakes settings such as healthcare, RL decisions might systematically restrict some subpopulation's access to valuable services in a manner contrary to the values and goals of stakeholders. Counterfactual fairness (CF) offers a promising framework to address this problem based on causal reasoning. This paper develops a data preprocessing algorithm that, when used in tandem with policy learning, enables CF in RL. Our algorithm relies on a novel quantile distribution mapping method for sequentially estimating the counterfactual states and rewards in the data preprocessing step, subsuming common additivity assumptions used for counterfactual prediction as a special case. We theoretically prove that the per-step level of counterfactual unfairness and infinite-horizon suboptimality gap can be bounded under mild regularity conditions. We also empirically test our algorithm in numerical experiments as well as in application to a real-world interventional digital health dataset.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jianhan Zhang, Jitao Wang, John D. Piette, Donglin Zeng, Chengchun Shi, Zhenke Wu

Machine Learning

Memory-Efficient Activation Checkpointing with Sliding Window and Hirschberg's Algorithm for 0/1 Knapsack Solving in PyTorch

Activation checkpointing minimizes the runtime of neural networks under a given memory budget, by selecting which intermediate tensors to store and which to recompute. PyTorch solves this as a 0/1 knapsack problem, where operations from a joint forward-backward computation graph are items with a memory cost (weight) and a runtime saving (value). The default solver, dp_knapsack, allocates a full dynamic programming (DP) table of shape $(n+1) \times (W+1)$, where $n$ is the number of operations and $W$ is the quantized memory budget. This method is resource-hungry and crashes at $n = 100$ items on a machine with 64 GB RAM. In this paper, we introduce dp_knapsack_sliding_hirschberg, which combines the sliding window trick and Hirschberg's algorithm to reduce peak memory from $O(nW)$ to $O(W)$ while preserving the exact optimal solution. Our experiments show successful knapsack execution at $n = 2000$, where dp_knapsack fails at $n = 100$, a 20$\times$ increase in computable problem size. In addition, our benchmarks show a consistent 25-28% runtime speedup over dp_knapsack. The implementation is merged into PyTorch and released in version 2.10.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Dispatch Overhead, Not Kernel Quality: The Performance Bottleneck in Single-Stream WebGPU LLM Inference

Large Language Models are increasingly deployed in resource-constrained, single-stream settings, from internet browsers to edge devices, where requests arrive one at a time at batch size 1 rather than in large batches. In this regime, where WebGPU serves as a modern cross-platform standard, per-operation dispatch overhead, rather than kernel compute, can dominate inference cost, yet it remains poorly characterized. In this work, we introduce a sequential-dispatch measurement method and show that naive single-operation measurements overestimate per-dispatch cost by conflating dispatch with synchronization. Using our method, we measure the per-dispatch cost and show that it is independent of data type used. Through a controlled fusion experiment, we show that the dispatch overhead, not kernel quality, is the bottleneck at batch size 1, and isolate the dispatch count as the cause. We conclude that at batch size 1, the effective approach to LLM inference optimization in WebGPU is reducing dispatch count. Our findings point to dispatch amortization, in the inference engines and in the WebGPU specification, as a path to practical browser-based inference.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

PAST: Privileged Adaptation from Complete Student Trajectories for On-Policy Self-Distillation

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) uses a privileged teacher to supervise a reasoning model on prefixes sampled from its own rollouts. Yet each rollout also reveals how the student's response unfolds and whether it succeeds, student-specific hindsight that standard OPSD does not use to form the teacher. We introduce Privileged Adaptation from Student Trajectories (PAST), which treats each completed student trajectory as additional privileged information for the OPSD teacher while leaving the student's distillation prefixes unchanged. PAST preserves the student's next-token distribution on correct trajectories and uses failed trajectories to adapt the teacher toward verified success under student-proximity regularization. We characterize what such a trajectory-conditioned teacher can transfer to a prefix-only student. Forward-KL distillation projects the teacher distributions to their conditional arithmetic mean given the prefix. This projection separates trajectory-specific variation that remains privileged from the mean policy shift available to the student. For correct trajectories, the unclipped population objective also has the frozen student as an ideal distributional fixed point. Across three mathematical reasoning benchmarks, PAST improves the Avg@12 macro average over Vanilla OPSD by 5.6 percentage points. A $2\times2$ factorial study shows gains from both complete-trajectory access and teacher adaptation, while trajectory removal and shuffling confirm that the adapted teacher uses the matching hindsight context.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Gaming Without an Attacker: Benchmark Fingerprinting in LLM-Driven Search Under Selection Pressure

Benchmarks for systems that are optimized against the evaluation signal measure something different from what they claim. We document this concretely in two GPU-kernel-optimization suites with held-out generalization gates: Metal-Sci (10 scientific-compute tasks) and Metal-ZK (12 zero-knowledge/cryptographic tasks), in which three frontier LLMs (Opus 4.7, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.5) propose Metal kernels inside a $(1{+}1)$ evolutionary loop with rich feedback. Although no model is prompted to act adversarially, the promoted winners repeatedly fingerprint the evaluation configuration: they branch on the identity of runtime parameters, tune the measured branch maximally, and leave the unmeasured branch slow or silently wrong. Across the pooled suites, $16/53$ ($30\%$) of in-distribution wins fail to transfer to held-out configurations. We give a four-mode taxonomy of these failures, from configuration fingerprints to gate leakage. We distill design guidance for measurement under strategic optimization: held-out probes retain validity only on non-enumerable axes; gates must measure held-out performance, not just correctness; and a transfer rate is interpretable only with per-failure mechanism grades: ours decomposes into gamed, overfit, and benign. Code and research artifacts: https://github.com/vicgalle/kernel-fingerprinting
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Multi-kernel spectral clustering: Entrywise eigenvector perturbation bounds and exact recovery

Kernel spectral clustering with a single bandwidth can be inadequate for data exhibiting multiple characteristic pairwise-distance scales, a problem particularly prevalent in the high-dimensional regime. We address this issue through a multi-kernel formulation that aggregates kernels with different bandwidths. The bandwidths are selected as prescribed empirical quantiles of the pairwise squared distances, thereby capturing the relevant distance scales without requiring prior population-scale information. We develop a rigorous theoretical analysis of the resulting method under a general high-dimensional, multi-scale mixture model with heterogeneous cluster centers and covariance geometries. We construct a blockwise constant, low-rank informative approximation to the empirical multi-kernel matrix and establish row-wise $\ell_{2,\infty}$ perturbation bounds for its leading spectral components, as well as for the associated normalized Laplacian matrix. These bounds yield observation-level control of the spectral embedding, which is more informative than conventional global eigenspace perturbation estimates. Under suitable eigen-gap and cluster-separation conditions, we show that approximate $K$-means applied to the multi-kernel spectral embedding achieves exact recovery with high probability.
Read the full abstract

All authors Zeqin Lin, Guangming Pan, Zhixiang Zhang, Yinbing Zhou

Machine Learning

Loss-Resilient Wireless Video Token Communication over Block Fading Channels

Video token communication represents video content as discrete tokens that differ in their importance to reconstruction and exhibit temporal dependencies. When these tokens are packetized for wireless transmission, block fading can cause multiple important or correlated tokens to be lost together, severely degrading video reconstruction. To address this issue, we propose a loss-resilient wireless video token communication (WVTC) framework. WVTC evaluates token importance from the intrinsic predictive structure of video tokens, assigning high priority to structural I-tokens and measuring P-token importance by temporal neighborhood novelty. A shuffled mixed I/P-token packetization scheme disperses structural anchors and correlated temporal regions across packets. Using only current block channel state information, an online scheduler jointly considers packet importance density, MCS-dependent decoding reliability, block capacity, and importance concentration when allocating packets to fading blocks. At the receiver, a fine-tuned detokenizer reconstructs missing content from surviving tokens without retransmission. Numerical results demonstrate improved perceptual quality and more graceful degradation under increasing packet error rates.
Read the full abstract

All authors Bingyan Xie, Yongjeong Oh, Zihan Chen, Jihong Park, Yongpeng Wu, Wenjun Zhang

Machine Learning

RippleKV: Cross-Layer KV Cache Allocation via Perturbation Propagation

Long-context LLM inference is bottlenecked by KV cache memory, yet distributing a limited cache budget across layers remains challenging. Existing methods rely on proxies such as layer depth, attention statistics, or representation change. These proxies do not measure how perturbations at each layer propagate to the output and may therefore cause sensitive layers to be underallocated while tolerant layers are overallocated. To address this issue, we propose RippleKV, which allocates cache across layers by estimating how perturbations to each layer's value cache affect the final predictive distribution. RippleKV independently injects norm-adaptive perturbations into each layer's value cache and measures the induced KL divergence at the model output over a small calibration set. Averaging these responses yields a sensitivity profile specific to the model that need not vary monotonically with depth. RippleKV then converts the sensitivity profile into layer budget multipliers by normalizing the sensitivity scores and applying an exponential mapping. A ratio parameter controls the allocation disparity between sensitive and tolerant layers, while a final normalization preserves the KV cache budget. Experiments on LongBench demonstrate that RippleKV achieves the highest average performance among the evaluated KV cache compression methods under matched cache budgets.
Read the full abstract

All authors Dongjie Xu, Kai Qian, Julius, Weijie Shi, Yuxuan Sun, Minghua Tang, Fenglei Jin, Hanchi Dong, Jiajie Xu

Machine Learning

Efficient Test-Time Scaling for LLM-based Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting benefits from preserving global structure such as trends and seasonality. Recent LLM-based forecasters often improve accuracy through test-time scaling (e.g., iterative refinement), but these methods are computationally expensive and increasingly prone to global-shape mismatch as the prediction horizon extends. We propose SCALER, a coarse-to-fine forecasting framework that first employs a lightweight Transformer tailored to long-term shape modeling to predict a coarse representation of future dynamics. This predicted shape then serves as a compact guide for an LLM to perform test-time scaling via iterative coarse-to-fine residual token refinement, while processing substantially fewer tokens at each step. By guiding refinement with an explicit future-shape prediction, SCALER reduces reliance on long description prompts, and its fixed-step refinement avoids costly reward-model-based selection, further lowering computational overhead. Experimental results demonstrate that SCALER outperforms strong forecasting baselines in long-term, short-term and zero-shot forecasting while significantly reducing the inference cost associated with scaled LLM for time series forecasting. Code: https://github.com/xuanmay2701/SCALER.
Read the full abstract

All authors Xuan-May Le, Minh-Tuan Tran, Ling Luo, Uwe Aickelin, Dinh Phung, Trung Le

Machine Learning

Backward Compatibility in Tree-Based Explanations and Enhanced CART Algorithm

In the operation of machine learning models, model update is a fundamental process that requires careful consideration of its impact on downstream decision-making. Particularly when operating explainable models, changes in explanations resulting from model updates can lead to detrimental outcomes for users. Decision trees, due to their high transparency, are frequently employed in risk-sensitive decision-making and serve as a prominent example in which the aforementioned issue is evident. However, existing research addressing similar issues has focused on explanations based on feature contributions, and thus cannot handle explanations derived from tree structures. Therefore, this paper proposes the Backward Compatibility Loss in Tree-based eXplanations (BCLTX), a loss metric that suppresses changes in decision tree explanations before and after updates. Furthermore, we design CART with Backward Compatibility in Tree-based eXplanations (CART-BCTX), a lightweight algorithm that improves upon CART for the decision tree update problem under BCLTX. Experimental results using 10 real-world datasets, including both classification and regression tasks, show that CART-BCTX achieves favorable trade-offs between prediction performances and BCLTX values, with comparable computation times to CART, regardless of the task.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Reinforcement Learning

This work explores the relationship between task similarity and catastrophic forgetting in reinforcement learning. Catastrophic forgetting, the phenomenon in machine learning of losing the ability to effectively perform on previous tasks, is a significant impediment to continual learning. This study aims to understand the extent to which the similarity of a new task influences the performance on the previous task. Interpretable reinforcement learning, specifically Q-learning, is employed on graph-based tasks with the objective of minimising the number of steps to reach a goal. The study investigates the performance on a previously learned task after training on a new task, for tasks of varying relative levels of complexity. The experimental results reveal a complex dynamic between task similarity and forgetting, with significant fluctuations in forgetting severity observed across degrees of task similarities and task complexities, and are suggestive of an interdependence of forgetting on the similarity and complexity of tasks. The observations were accompanied by observations of high degrees of variability in forgetting and an uneven distribution of task similarity measures. The relationship between these variables remains unclear and no evidence of statistical significance that task similarity has an effect, independently, on forgetting is found in continual reinforcement learning. Further research is warranted to gain a comprehensive understanding of the potential interplay between task similarity and catastrophic forgetting.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GT

Kernel Methods for Refined Prophet Inequalities

The single-selection prophet inequality is a canonical Bayesian online selection problem in which independent nonnegative values arrive sequentially and the decision-maker must irrevocably select at most one. Classical single-threshold guarantees are tight in the worst case, but the hard instances that prove tightness are highly irregular: the prophet's advantage is driven by rare, very large realizations of the maximum. We refine this worst-case picture by imposing a bound on the relative variance of the prophet's value, $\mathrm{Var}(\max_{i\in[n]}X_i)/\mathbb E[\max_{i\in[n]}X_i]^2$. This yields a nonparametric complexity measure that interpolates between deterministic instances, where the full prophet value can be recovered, and the unrestricted worst-case regime. Our main technical contribution is a general kernel method for single-threshold prophet inequalities. The method represents an instance by the quantile function of the maximum and rewrites the payoff of a threshold as a linear kernel functional of this quantile. This turns the worst-case analysis into an infinite-dimensional convex program, restores strong minimax duality in quantile space, and reduces the bounded-variance adversary's problem to a one-parameter variational family. Applying this framework, we obtain an exact characterization of the IID bounded-variance curve and asymptotically optimal finite-horizon thresholds, a closed-form expression for the fixed-order non-identical model, and a prophet-secretary lower-bound program together with a strict separation from the IID benchmark at every positive finite variance constraint. As a further application of the same kernel viewpoint, we derive an exact formula for IID random horizons under a convexity condition on the horizon pgf, which includes monotone-hazard-rate horizons, highlighting the broad applicability of this new technique for single threshold settings.
Read the full abstract

All authors Patrick Loiseau, Mathieu Molina, Vianney Perchet, Sebastian Perez-Salazar, Victor Verdugo

Machine Learning

LegoLM: Structured Weight Sharing for Large Language Models

We present \LegoLM{}, a structured weight-sharing compression framework for large language models grounded in a systematic study of why global weight sharing fails and how to fix it. We identify two distinct failure modes. Distributional mismatch: for vector blocks of dimension d <= 2, transformer layers with heterogeneous weight scales impose a scale-mismatch penalty that grows linearly with d and cannot be resolved by increasing K, producing perplexity in the millions.Outlier dominance: for scalar blocks, a fraction ~1/K of weights lies beyond the outermost Lloyd-Max decision threshold and cannot be represented by any centroid; their misrepresentation accumulates across layers, causing catastrophic quality loss. \LegoLM{} resolves both failure modes via three data-free adaptations: 1 scalar-block encoding to eliminate the $d$-linear mismatch component, 2 percentile-selective replacement that identifies and preserves outlier weights verbatim, and 3 boundary-layer protection for the first and last transformer blocks. Across GPT-2 small (124M) and Mistral-7B, \LegoLM{} achieves +0.03% PPL degradation at 4.41X compression on Mistral-7B - outperforming PTQ-8bit in both quality and compression ratio - and -0.02% at 2.67X. Downstream evaluation on LAMBADA and HellaSwag confirms that \LegoLM{} at K=64, p=99% preserves accuracy within noise at 5.12 X compression, exceeding PTQ-8bit's compression ratio while matching its accuracy. We further discover that outlier dominance grows with model scale: full replacement at K=128 degrades GPT-2 small by only +23% but catastrophically degrades Mistral-7B by +1,134,279%, while selective replacement at p=99% rescues both models to under +15%. A controlled ablation confirms that selective replacement is the dominant mechanism: adding it to per-layer K-means also yields near-lossless quality, matching \LegoLM{} within 0.02%.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Multi-Relational Knowledge Graph Enhanced Embedding for Trajectory-User Linking

Trajectory-User Linking (TUL) aims to identify the owner of an anonymous trajectory from a set of candidate users, providing a basis for user mobility analysis and personalized location-aware services. Existing methods often learn Point of Interest (POI), temporal, and semantic features independently, make limited use of structural knowledge shared across trajectories, and compress structural and sequential information before classification. To address these issues, we propose Multi-Relational Knowledge Graph Enhanced Embedding for Trajectory-User Linking (MakeTUL), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to introduce knowledge graph representation learning into TUL. MakeTUL organizes visit-time, POI-category, and transfer-speed information as typed relations in a multi-relational mobility knowledge graph, allowing heterogeneous mobility semantics to jointly constrain the learned embeddings. The resulting POI representations are further enriched with high-order co-occurrence patterns extracted from the trajectory collection, providing structural prior knowledge for sparse and overlapping trajectories. By integrating these prior-enhanced representations with temporal, category, and transfer information, the trajectory sequence learning module captures ordered mobility patterns, while a dual-branch classification layer preserves and combines global structural evidence and sequential evidence at the decision level.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Path-dependent Discrete Amortized Inference

We consider the problem of sampling compositional and discrete objects from a given unnormalized posterior distribution. Notably, recent studies have shown that this problem can be efficiently solved by learning a deterministic Markov Decision Process (MDP) that progressively builds each object in proportion to the posterior. In this work, however, we demonstrate that the Markovian assumption can both hamper signal propagation during training and catastrophically reduce the learned sampler's expressivity due to state aliasing. To address these issues, we propose lifting the MDP with a learnable latent dynamical system that allows the underlying policy to depend on the entire past trajectory—and not only on the current state. In view of this, we refer to the resulting method as path-dependent discrete amortized inference. Importantly, we provably extend existing learning algorithms for discrete amortized samplers to our setting. In experiments on standard benchmark problems, we also show that our approach often leads to faster learning convergence and improved state space exploration relatively to prior techniques.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Exact Rank-Space KL Projection for Shared-Marginal Low-Rank Factors: Application to Doubly Stochastic Clustering

We study exact Kullback–Leibler (KL) projection for low-rank factorizations whose two nonnegative factors have prescribed row marginals and a shared, learned column marginal. For arbitrary positive row marginals of equal total mass, the joint KL projection reduces exactly to a strictly convex gauge-fixed dual with only $r-1$ effective variables; its Hessian is a sum of categorical covariance terms and admits $O((n+m)r)$ matrix-free Hessian–vector products. The projection theorem is objective-independent. We then specialize this geometry to doubly stochastic (DS) graph learning through $W=U\operatorname{Diag}(g)^{-1}V^\top$, where row-simplex factors with a common column mass induce an exactly DS graph without materializing an $n\times n$ optimization variable. Combined with observed-edge sparse fitting, a stochastic anchor-reduced manifold regularizer, and Bregman backtracking, the resulting mirror-descent method preserves exact feasibility at every accepted step. Under a nonvanishing latent-mass condition, it satisfies sufficient decrease and an $O(1/N)$ mirror-stationarity bound, while strictly positive accumulation points are KKT stationary. Matched clustering experiments show competitive accuracy, feasibility residuals near numerical precision, and favorable anytime behavior without a dense learned graph.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Trajectory Design and Budgeted Querying for Digital Twin Calibration

Digital-twin calibration requires interaction data that is expensive to collect. We study two acquisition decisions: which trajectories to generate, and when to spend a limited budget on privileged parameter measurements. Our framework couples an excitation-oriented reinforcement learning controller, a recurrent parameter estimator with predictive uncertainty, and a budgeted query policy. In Pendulum, a Random Forest diagnostic recovers gravity only weakly from task-oriented trajectories and does not recover mass or length, while a GRU trained on excitation-oriented trajectories reaches a mean absolute error of 0.0066 with no queries. We then withdraw continuous oracle access partway through an episode, so that the twin must run on the estimator's output for the remainder. The estimator-plus-policy pipeline achieves a terminal error of 0.0092 under a three-query budget, against 0.2031 for an uncalibrated twin. In partially observable Waterworld, five controllers produce different observed error profiles across three hidden parameters, and an estimator trained on a five-controller mixture reaches online normalized errors of roughly 4-5%. These exploratory case studies are not controlled ablations, but they motivate treating trajectory design and query allocation as explicit design variables in data-scarce calibration.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Domain-Aware Pruning: Sparsity and Domain Generalization via Regularized Probabilistic Masking

Domain generalization (DG) and neural network pruning are conventionally treated as distinct objectives, targeting out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness and model efficiency, respectively. In this work, we bridge this gap by introducing Domain-Aware Pruning (DAP), a framework that leverages network sparsity as a mechanism to implicitly enhance generalization to unseen domains. Diverging from standard binary mask optimization, DAP learns a continuous parameter retention probability $p \in [0, 1]$, framing network compression as a continuous probabilistic masking problem. By introducing a regularization objective that actively penalizes the retention of domain-sensitive weights during the mask training, DAP identifies a domain-invariant subnetwork. Empirical results across five DG benchmark datasets demonstrate that DAP achieves significant sparsity while consistently matching or exceeding the OOD performance of its dense counterparts. Crucially, DAP is an algorithm-agnostic framework that integrates seamlessly with existing DG pipelines without necessitating post-hoc fine-tuning. Beyond efficiency and generalization, we show that DAP natively provides increased robustness to adversarial perturbations and yields highly interpretable models, where the retained weights reliably encapsulate the most domain-invariant and task-critical representations.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.NA

ADEx-FNO: A Unified Ambient-Domain Framework for Fourier Neural Operators on Varying Geometries

Fourier neural operators (FNOs) provide efficient nonlocal spectral learning, but varying geometries and independently chosen discretizations remain difficult to accommodate. We introduce the ambient-domain extension Fourier neural operator (ADEx-FNO), a deterministic framework that incorporates geometry without modifying the defining Fourier-operator layers. Each physical domain is embedded in a fixed ambient hypercube and represented by a signed distance function. Inputs and solution fields are deterministically extended to the ambient domain, transferred to a common, potentially nonuniform rectilinear latent grid, processed by the FNO, then interpolated to an independently chosen target discretization and restricted to the physical domain. All geometry-transfer operations lie outside the optimization procedure and require no trainable graph, point-cloud, deformation, or geometry-decoding modules. ADEx-FNO achieves relative l2 errors of 0.32%-0.77% on held-out smooth-domain nonlinear Poisson and advection-reaction-diffusion problems in 2D and 3D, and is also evaluated on unseen nonsmooth geometries. A single ADEx-FNO inference is then used to initialize conventional CFD solvers. For all 29 converged 2D and 3D RANS cases, pseudo-time iterations decrease, with mean reductions of 44.17% and 43.03%, respectively, with comparable gains across three mesh resolutions. URANS cases reduce post-window physical-time advances by 18.52%-27.51%. In transfer from 2D URANS training data to DNS at different Mach and Reynolds numbers, the bootstrap interval decreases by 23.47%-48.21%, depending on the target statistic. In all CFD tests, ADEx-FNO provides only the initial field; the governing-equation solver controls the subsequent solution, while physical or statistical consistency is assessed separately from computational savings.
Read the full abstract

All authors Roberto Nuca, Giovanni Testa, Luca Galimberti, Matteo Parsani

Machine Learning

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning via Agent-Specific Preference

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is a powerful framework for solving complex collaborative tasks, but it relies heavily on well-defined global reward functions. Designing such rewards is challenging, especially in systems with heterogeneous agents, where a single scalar objective may fail to capture diverse behaviors. In this paper, we introduce Multi-AGent Preference-Integrated lEarning (MAGPIE), which addresses these challenges through agent-specific preference modeling. Each agent is evaluated by a dedicated expert through preference signals, eliminating the need for global evaluation. We theoretically prove that optimizing these decentralized preferences converges to a Nash equilibrium policy. To integrate local preferences into a coherent global objective, we construct agent-specific reward models from preference data and combine them via a monotonic aggregation mechanism. We further prove that optimizing this aggregate reward model is equivalent to training the Nash equilibrium policy. Extensive experiments on benchmark multi-agent tasks and a sequential production line task show that MAGPIE achieves performance comparable to reward-engineered baselines, demonstrating its potential to facilitate policy learning in scenarios where precise reward engineering is impractical.
Read the full abstract

All authors Ni Mu, Yao Luan, Yiqin Yang, Qing-Shan Jia

2608.08604 · 9 Aug · This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering. This is the author's version, which has not been fully edited, and the content may change prior to final publication. o̧pyright} 2026 IEEE. All rights reserved, including rights for text and data mining and training of artificial intelligence and similar technologies