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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Monday 20 July

Machine Learning

Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN

TabPFN is a transformer-based foundation model for tabular prediction that performs inference without task-specific training by conditioning on a support set and query inputs. Despite its strong empirical performance, its internal behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries remains poorly understood. We study this behavior using zigzag persistent homology, treating TabPFN layer representations as evolving point clouds. We construct a controlled benchmark of synthetic tabular tasks with known true probabilities and varied intrinsic topology, including warped circles, tori, spheres, Hopf links, trefoil knots, and Swiss rolls. Across these tasks, we find that the topology of TabPFN's internal representation geometry is strongly associated with dataset-level reliability; for example, the zeroth homology group $H_0$ fragmentation count correlates positively with mean absolute residual across controlled tasks, and this association strengthens in a high-resolution warped circle case study at large sample size. Harder geometries induce a dual topological signature: increased $H_1$ loop activity and increased $H_0$ fragmentation, while the $H_1$ persistence becomes shorter-lived. These descriptors correlate with Bayes error, mean absolute residuals, and overconfidence. Our results suggest that zigzag persistence diagnoses the reliability of the inferred in-context task geometry and provides a context-level view of when TabPFN operates in topologically stressed regimes.
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Machine Learning

A Geometric Perspective on Stabilizing Value Conflict Resolution

Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to navigate value conflicts when trained with the compressed scalar rewards of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). To address this challenge, we investigate how chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning can help improve performance in this domain. Geometrically, we show that CoT correlates with further smoothing the model's loss landscape in its sharpest direction, helping resolve the optimization instability of traditional scalar rewards. We also demonstrate via relevant downstream benchmarks that value conflict-focused CoT may generalize to different kinds of moral reasoning, demonstrating that this CoT has the potential to be an effective mechanism for better moral reasoning. To capitalize on this potential, we create a new value conflict-focused CoT design that further smooths the sharpest direction of the loss landscape and increases moral reasoning performance. This finding shows that explicitly modifying and improving the design of reasoning dynamics offers a promising avenue for improving model performance on user requests with complex value conflicts, advancing pluralistic alignment in LLMs.
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Machine Learning

The Art of Not Forgetting

We introduce CMP (Cognitive Memory Primitive), an architecture that represents inputs as sparse relational codes, stores them in a two-tier competitive memory, and learns entirely through local, gradient-free updates, with no backpropagation anywhere in the network. We use this architecture to test a specific hypothesis: that catastrophic forgetting, usually treated as a training-time defect to be patched with replay or regularization, is instead a structural consequence of how backpropagation assigns credit and that a learning rule that is local and sparse by construction should resist it without a patch. On a controlled domain-incremental protocol across 15 text domains, three-seed replicated, CMP's backward transfer is 15-19x better than a matched-size Transformer trained with online EWC, and the result survives a domain-order control (reported as a range, +0.24 to +0.44, rather than a single figure). We report this alongside a real, substantial accuracy gap versus the Transformer baseline, a null result on a recognized vision benchmark, and a diagnosed, unresolved failure attempting to combine this architecture with a separate mechanism that improves raw accuracy, disclosed because an honest negative result is more useful than an omitted one. The central claim is narrow and falsifiable: local, sparse, non-backpropagation learning measurably resists catastrophic forgetting better than backpropagation with its standard fix, under conditions we state precisely.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MA

Aggregate in the Advantage, Not the Ratio: A Canonical-Form Analysis of Cooperative Multi-Agent Policy Optimization

Multi-agent policy optimization, exemplified by PPO-based methods, is a key branch of cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). A central design question is how many neighboring agents\footnote{In this paper, "neighbors" refer not only to physical proximity but also to agents whose actions influence one another.} to aggregate in order to effectively utilize global information for cooperation. This decision must be made along two dimensions: in the advantage (which agents' rewards contribute to the credit signal) and in the ratio (which agents' likelihood ratios form the clipped importance weight). Existing methods occupy scattered, underexplored points on these two axes: IPPO treats both separately; MAPPO pairs a team-level advantage with per-agent ratios; HAPPO employs sequential ratios with per-agent advantages; and single-agent reductions operating on factorized joint policies aggregate both into fully joint products. We formalize these two design choices as support matrices $\SA$ and $\SR$, and prove a canonical structure: the expected multi-agent policy optimization objective depends on the pair $(\SA,\SR)$ only through their matrix product $\tS=\SR\SA$. This yields two key consequences: (i) Redundancy: the two support matrices are interchangeable with respect to the signal, meaning neither aggregation pattern is inherently superior.(ii) Variance Ordering: the advantage aggregates rewards as a sum (additive variance with an interior bias-variance optimum at the coupling neighborhood), whereas the ratio aggregates likelihood ratios as a product (multiplicative variance that grows exponentially with support size, with no accompanying bias reduction). The resulting design principle is unambiguous: aggregate neighbors in the advantage, sized to the coupling neighborhood, and keep the ratio per-agent.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MA

PRIME: Plasticity Recovery in Multi-Agent Environments for UAV-Assisted Emergency Communication Networks

Most reinforcement learning controllers for these networks assume stationary conditions, and the few that handle change react to the external environment while leaving the network's internal state unexamined. We show that sustained non-stationarity damages this internal state directly: as objectives shift, neurons progressively fall dormant and the shared policy loses the capacity to learn. The obvious remedy, resetting dormant neurons, is unsafe under shared-parameter multi-agent training: many neurons that appear inactive are still receiving strong training gradients, and whether a neuron appears dormant depends on which agent's observations it processes. PRIME (Plasticity Recovery In Multi-agent Environments) therefore verifies both directions before intervening. Extending the bidirectional Silent Neuron framework to cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, it aggregates activation and gradient statistics over the full team batch, reads the backward signal from the gradient the training loss has already deposited , not from a hand-crafted proxy, and reinitializes only neurons that are simultaneously activation-dormant and gradient-silent. Useful representations are preserved while learning capacity is restored. On a phase-switching UAV emergency communication simulator, PRIME improves interquartile mean return by 24.9% over MAPPO and holds dormant neuron fractions at 10–20% versus 40–45%; ablations attribute the gains to the gradient signal and team-level aggregation rather than to the specific reset operator. A dynamic regret bound shows that the perturbation cost scales with the small silent-subspace dimension rather than the full parameter count.
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All authors Wen Qiu, Zhiqiang He, Wei Zhao, Hiroshi Masui

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MA

Value-Aware Prediction for Robust Multi-Agent Coordination Under Communication Loss

Robust multi-agent coordination relies heavily on inter-agent communication, which is frequently disrupted by physical and environmental constraints in real-world deployments. To maintain operation during these intermittent communication failures, agents can employ internal prediction models to estimate missing shared state information. However, predictors trained with standard reconstruction objectives treat all transitions equally. In a Reinforcement Learning context, this forces the model to waste capacity learning stochastic exploration noise and the outdated dynamics of suboptimal policies. In this paper, we propose a value-aware extension of Multi-Agent Observation Sharing under Communication Dropout (MARO) to patch communication gaps; we refer to this method as Value-Aware MARO. By dynamically weighting the predictor's loss function using advantage estimates derived from the underlying actor-critic architecture, our objective explicitly couples the predictor's learning process to the policy's evolution. This formulation focuses the model's capacity on the intentional, high-return dynamics actively reinforced by the agents. We evaluate our framework on several tasks within the Multi-Agent Particle Environment under varying communication reliability levels. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach maintains performance under declining communication reliability, particularly below 40%. While our method performs comparably in tasks where the baseline already maintains high coordination, our value-aware weighting effectively prevents the performance collapse observed in the standard predictor during high-attrition scenarios. In these environments, our method achieves an average improvement in mean returns of more than 20% and reduces performance variance by a mean of 64.7% compared to the standard unweighted baseline.
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All authors Kemal Devrim Kafadar, Eren Özaltun, Mahmud Efnan Şanl{\i}, Feyza Orak, Emirhan Gazi, Kubilay Kağan Kömürcü, Naz{\i}m Kemal Üre

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DC

AutoEncoder-Compressed Parallel Split Learning for Pre-trained Model Fine-Tuning

Distributed Fine-Tuning (DFT) of large-scale Foundation Models (FMs) on resource-constrained edge devices is limited by local compute constraints and communication overhead. Parallel Split Learning (PSL) reduces client-side computation by keeping few model layers on each client and offloading the remaining computation to the server; however, clients must exchange intermediate activations and gradients with the server at every training step. Existing SL communication-compression methods mainly rely on task-agnostic heuristics, such as sparsification and quantization. While learnable SL compressors can better adapt to intermediate representations, they require co-training with the target model. Therefore, directly inserting them into off-the-shelf FMs introduces feature-distribution misalignment and degrades DFT performance. To address this, we propose AE-PSL, a communication-efficient PSL framework that compresses intermediate activations and gradients using a lightweight AutoEncoder (AE) placed at the split layer. To ensure compatibility of AE compression with pre-trained FMs, AE-PSL introduces a novel two-stage alignment mechanism, which adapts the AE to the pre-trained model's feature manifold and client-specific feature distributions before DFT.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cond-mat.mtrl-sci

Chemical filters for ultra-high-throughput materials screening and generation

Generative artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming materials design by enabling de novo exploration of immense chemical spaces. Yet a large proportion of AI-generated compositions remain implausible, violating established chemical principles, which limits the reliability and interpretability of generative materials design. Here, we introduce a chemical validity operator that recasts heuristic chemical rules as a configurable algorithmic prior for evaluating and guiding generative materials discovery. Built on the open-source SMACT package, a data-informed oxidation-state model exposes tunable thresholds, allowing users to interpolate continuously between permissive and conservative chemical constraints, while supporting both exploratory and conservative materials-design workflows. Benchmarking six state-of-the-art generative models for inorganic crystals shows that most reproduce stoichiometry but under-represent realistic oxidation-state combinations, and that filtering removes compositions reliant on rarely observed oxidation states while preserving low-energy compounds near the convex hull. Beyond screening, the same operator can also serve as a reinforcement-learning reward, steering a latent diffusion model towards chemically grounded compositions. By encoding chemical heuristics and observations, this work establishes a foundation for oxidation-state-aware generative models.
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All authors Kinga O. Mastej, Panyalak Detrattanawichai, Hyunsoo Park, Anthony Onwuli, Masahiro Negishi, Aron Walsh

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from nlin.CD

Beyond the Edge of Chaos: Stability-Expressivity Transfer in Reservoir Forecasting

The edge-of-chaos heuristic has long served as a guiding principle for designing reservoir computers, yet its relevance to machine performance remains elusive. Here, taking the spectral radius of the reservoir network as the control parameter, we show that the radius yielding the best forecasting performance does not coincide with the Lyapunov edge of the isolated, teacher-forced, or closed-loop generative reservoir. By analyzing the collective dynamics of the teacher-forced reservoir, we find that the target dynamics are represented mainly by stable Lyapunov modes whose finite-time stability is strongly modulated by the input. This finding motivates a stability-expressivity transfer index, which balances the stability of these modes against their expressivity in representing the target. Across chaotic and quasiperiodic targets, and for both asymmetric and symmetric reservoirs, this index accurately identifies the optimal spectral radius for autonomous forecasting.
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Machine Learning

Distributional Soft Bellman Operator under the Cramér Geometry

Distributional soft policy iteration (DSPI) provides an important framework for combining distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) with maximum-entropy control, in which the policy evaluation step is governed by a distributional soft Bellman operator acting on entropy-regularised returns. Theoretical analysis of such an evaluation step requires a probability metric under which Bellman updates can be controlled, typically by showing that the operator contracts the distance between any two candidate return-distribution estimates. In this paper, we focus on the Cramér geometry, a cumulative distribution function (CDF)-based metric with an $L^2$ structure, and study whether the fixed-policy distributional soft Bellman operator has this contraction property and hence a unique fixed point under this metric. Working directly on an admissible CDF field domain, we formulate the CDF-level distributional soft Bellman operator, prove that it is a $\sqrt{\gamma}$-contraction, and obtain the corresponding unique fixed point together with convergent iterative policy evaluation. The CDF formulation also shows that this finite-Cramér-domain property follows from a uniform first-moment condition on the combined one-step reward entropy shift, rather than from separate uniform boundedness assumptions on the reward and entropy terms. We then transport the same evaluation problem to the spectral domain by conjugation, obtaining an equivalent Hilbert-space representation of the same decision process. Taken together, these results identify the Cramér-geometric Bellman fixed point associated with the policy-evaluation step of DSPI, providing a reference point for studying approximate critics, evaluation error, and critic-loss design in DSPI-style algorithms.
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All authors Keru Wang, Yixin Deng, Yao Lyu, Stephen Redmond, Shengbo Eben Li

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Entanglement geometry separates circuit cutting, classical hardness, and trainability

Circuit cutting promises to scale quantum computations beyond current hardware, but variational quantum advantage also requires low cutting overhead, classical hardness, and trainability. We show that these properties are strongly constrained by entanglement geometry. Matrix product state (MPS) and tree tensor network (TTN) circuits with constant seam bond dimension can be cut with \(O(1/\varepsilon^2)\) sampling overhead, but remain efficiently classically simulable, ruling out asymptotic quantum advantage within these families. By independently controlling seam and intra-block entanglement, we construct a two-block circuit family that remains cheaply cuttable while requiring a super-polynomial global MPS bond dimension, as supported numerically up to \(n=100\). However, MPS hardness and trainability require incompatible depth regimes, \(d=\omega(\log n)\) and \(d=O(\log n)\), respectively. Using magic rather than entanglement as the hardness resource avoids this conflict: shallow Clifford+\(T\) circuits remain cuttable and trainable while their stabiliser-simulation cost grows exponentially with the \(T\)-count.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.NE

Organization of computation in reservoir computing

Reservoir computing exploits nonlinear dynamical systems to encode temporal inputs into high-dimensional state space representations. Although reservoir performance is often characterized through memory, nonlinearity, and their tradeoff, such aggregate measures do not reveal how task-relevant information is organized within the state space. Here, we introduce an eigen-spectral decomposition framework linking the degree-wise information processing capacity to the corresponding state space modes. As a result, we are able to quantify the degree-wise representation energy, and show that in some cases, substantial amounts of information processing capacity may reside in low-energy modes that are vulnerable to experimental noise. These results suggest that useful reservoir computation depends not only on dimensionality expansion, but also on the geometric organization of task-relevant information, with direct implications on physical reservoir computers.
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Machine Learning

Mobius Learning: Cyclic Depth Folding in Transformers

Transformer-based language models organize computation along an ordered depth axis, where shallow and deep blocks often develop distinct representational roles. We challenge the conventional view that these roles must remain tied to a block's position in the ordered sequence. We introduce Mobius Learning, a training architecture based on cyclic depth folding, in which different data streams follow cyclically shifted block orders. The same block group is therefore applied early in the block sequence for some data streams and late for others, so it is optimized in both shallow and deep roles, a phenomenon we call depth-role superposition. Surprisingly, in four-worker experiments with a modded GPT-2 small (124M) model trained on 2.5B FineWeb tokens using Muon, Mobius Learning achieves lower validation loss than a fixed-order looped Transformer at larger numbers of Transformer block-sequence passes. This counterintuitive result shows that a block group need not remain confined to one fixed shallow or deep role within the block sequence and opens a new design space based on cyclic depth folding. Crucially, this structure makes Mobius Learning particularly well suited to memory-constrained distributed training: raw training data remain local, while each worker stores one block group rather than the complete Transformer block stack.
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Machine Learning

Theoretical Foundations of $\max$@$k$ Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning is a cornerstone technique for modern large reasoning models. Usually, for difficult tasks such as code generation and theorem proving, the agent is evaluated by generating $K$ responses rather than sampling a single response, and performance is then measured using a retry-aware metric such as $\max$@$k$. Despite their practical importance, the theoretical foundations of learning under such criteria remain limited. In this work, we provide a theoretical study of the $\max$@$k$ learning problem in finite-horizon reinforcement learning. We show that optimizing the $\max$@$k$ objectives is fundamentally different from standard expected-return maximization. In particular, we prove that Markovian policies are in general insufficient, identify a compact state augmentation that restores optimality, and explicitly characterize the performance gap that can arise between history-dependent and non-history-dependent policies. Moreover, we show that learning $\max$@$k$-optimal policies is statistically harder than standard reinforcement learning and provide an efficient algorithm that achieves the optimal sample complexity rate.
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Machine Learning

Phasor Attention: Mean Root Square Normalization for Phase Manifold Preservation

While Root Mean Square Normalization has become the de facto standard for accelerating modern sequence models, its reliance on the quadratic accumulation of independent scalars ($\sum x^2$) inherently triggers outlier-induced numerical instability, gradient starvation, and anisotropic phase distortion. We introduce Mean Root Square Normalization (MRSNorm). By structurally pairing channels into 2D phasors, MRSNorm mathematically inverts the traditional scaling paradigm: it computes the localized $L_2$ magnitudes (Root Square) before aggregating them via a global $L_1$ average (Mean). This operational inversion strictly constrains activations to a phasor manifold, preserving conformal invariance. By sharing a single affine weight across phasor components, MRSNorm halves the total number of learnable parameters, proving that unconstrained spatial scaling in standard norms is a harmful redundancy. We analytically demonstrate that this geometric constraint yields a built-in, trigonometric gradient clipper governed by the Pythagorean identity, unconditionally equalizing the local gradient norm to ensure Gradient Homogeneity. Empirical evaluations on a ResNet with CIFAR-100 show that despite halved parameters, MRSNorm provides critical structural stability under rigorous stress tests. Under extreme hyperparameter settings where standard normalizations suffer from gradient divergence, MRSNorm successfully prevents numerical explosion and secures stable optimization trajectories. Our findings propose a fundamental paradigm shift toward phasor-based deep representation learning. The implementation of MRSNorm is available at Appendix C.
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Machine Learning

The Concept of Representation in ML: Beyond Plato and Aristotle

Representation is a central concept in modern machine learning, where it usually refers to internal encodings that support learning and generalization. As models scale and their capabilities become increasingly human-level, this representational language sometimes shifts from an engineering context into the more philosophically loaded domain of mental representation. We argue that this is the case for recent claims about the convergence of representational properties across different AI models. In particular, we assess the arguments developed in The Platonic Representation Hypothesis, according to which this convergence is driven by a unified structure of reality. We examine this claim by introducing arguments and ideas from debates about mental representation in the philosophy of mind. We argue that these philosophical resources can clarify what is at stake in such claims, explain why alignment evidence alone is insufficient for strong metaphysical conclusions, and suggest directions for future research.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Reasoning as a Double-Edged Sword: Architecture and Cross-Stage Robustness in Vision-Language-Action Models

Does adding a reasoning step make a Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model more robust to perturbation? Intuitively, a policy that reasons before acting should absorb a perturbed input better than one that maps observations directly to actions. We test this premise head-on across three models that span the reasoning spectrum (no reasoning, a text chain-of-thought, and a latent iterative loop), perturbing each at the vision, reasoning, and action stages on LIBERO and SimplerEnv. Two questions organize the study: does the reasoning design shift robustness, and can the reasoning be read back at runtime as a safety signal? We find that the latent-iterative model is by far the least robust: under both stochastic noise and white-box perturbation its task success collapses, while the other two hold. This fragility is structural rather than cumulative: varying the reasoning depth at inference barely moves it. Reasoning outputs can in principle be monitored, but the monitors fail under fair tests. A plan–action consistency probe that looks near-perfect under naive evaluation falls to chance under adaptive attack. Under matched-FPR calibration, fusing it with an action-anomaly probe never lifts defended success above undefended. Scoped to these output-level behavioral probes under white-box vision-stage attack, this ceiling is a precondition that any viable defense must first satisfy.
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Machine Learning

Feature Attribution-Based Explainability Analysis of Deep Learning Models in Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring supports the optimization and control of operational business processes by forecasting the future state or outcome of ongoing cases. While deep neural networks have achieved strong performance for these tasks by modeling sequential dependencies in event logs, their black-box nature limits trust and practical adoption. Feature attribution methods are often used to address this, but applying them directly poses a dilemma: event-level attributions impose high computational complexity for long traces, while explanations based on aggregated trace representations often fail to capture the underlying control-flow dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a local post-hoc explainability method for deep neural networks in outcome prediction. The method relies on a control-flow-aware segmentation algorithm that partitions a trace into meaningful segments and supports the computation of segment-level SHAP explanations. This makes it possible to identify which parts of a trace influence a prediction and which change points steer the case toward the predicted outcome. We assess the proposed segmentation method on a synthetic dataset with known process logic, where meaningful change points can be explicitly verified, and we demonstrate its usefulness on real-world event logs from a loan application process and an administrative process of a Dutch municipality.
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All authors Kseniya Sahatova, Rafael Seidi Oyamada, Xuefei Lu, Johannes De Smedt

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.PL

ETAS: An Effect-Typed Language for Agent Systems

ETAS is a programming language for agent systems that treats model-backed agents, tool calls, prompts, typed memory, human approvals, policies, and execution traces as semantic program elements rather than library conventions. It separates deterministic computation from agentic nondeterminism and externally visible actions while preserving a direct programming style. We present the core design of ETAS. Its static semantics assigns ordinary types through spec conformance and tracks each computation with two behavioral indices: an escaping effect row and a persistent abstraction of the typed action trace it may request. Specs form a terminating compile-time constraint calculus: type specs provide evidence for polymorphism and resource facts, callable specs constrain function and stage shapes, and trace specs express allow, deny, and temporal constraints. Typing checks requested traces against compiled monitors and emits residual obligations when dynamic resources preclude a complete static proof. The dynamic semantics distinguish requested, handled, denied, and committed events; handlers interpret typed actions without making their requests invisible to authorization or audit. We formalize a core calculus and state preservation, progress, type/effect soundness, handler trace-transparency, and policy safety. We also implement ETAS in Rust with a command-line interface, typed HIR checks, effect and policy diagnostics, handler checks, and trace-aware execution hooks. ETAS provides a programming-language foundation for reasoning about authorization, nondeterminism, recovery, and audit evidence before and during agent execution.
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All authors Huiri Tan, Yikun Wang, Puyang Zhang, Shangyu Li, Jiasi Shen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Measuring Monosemanticity in Sparse Autoencoders via Latent Activation Coherence

Within Explainable Artificial Intelligence, mechanistic interpretability uses Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) to extract more interpretable features from neural representations. However, assessing their monosemanticity, and thus explanation quality, remains challenging. Existing metrics require external concept labels or depend on pretrained embedding models, making them sensitive to encoder's geometry. We introduce the Tversky Monosemanticity Score (TMS), a label-free metric that operationalizes monosemanticity as activation-set coherence of binarized SAE latents, and does not require external embedding encoders. We evaluate TMS on SAEs trained on features from pretrained vision and vision-language models (DINOv3, CLIP, BLIP2), two common SAE regimes (TopK, BatchTopK), multiple sparsity levels, and expansion factors. Our results show that TMS is less affected by encoder anisotropy than its embedding-based alternative, while remaining aligned with established monosemanticity indicators. TMS also reveals distinct SAE training dynamics across base models. Moreover, under encoder anisotropy, TMS provides a stronger indication of probe-based concept deletion effectiveness, while being competitive otherwise.
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2607.17770 · 20 Jul · This is a preprint version. A shorter version of this paper has been accepted for presentation and publication in the post-workshop proceedings of the 8th International Workshop on eXplainable Knowledge Discovery in Data Mining (XKDD 2026), co-located with ECML PKDD 2026. The appendix is included only in this preprint and is not part of the peer-reviewed proceedings paper

Machine Learning

FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches

We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events. For every one of the 104 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, four frontier models – Claude Opus 4.8, ChatGPT (GPT-5.5, high reasoning), Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok (Expert Mode) – ran an identical search-act-reflect loop: gather evidence with a web tool, commit to a 1X2 (team-A win / draw / team-B win) distribution and a virtual 100-USD bet, and, after the match, reflect given only the final score. Because every match kicked off after the models' training cutoffs, the benchmark is contamination-free by construction. Crucially, we pair the four agents with a fifth competitor drawn from the same information environment – the pre-match betting market – collected as per-match 1X2 odds, giving an economically grounded baseline and letting us score not just what an agent predicts but what it does with money. The release contains 416 forecasts and 414 reflections with verbatim reasoning, ground truth (including penalty shootouts), odds, and a reproducible evaluation suite. A reference evaluation surfaces findings that raw accuracy hides: the four agents issue an identical top pick in 92% of matches and none beats the market's Brier score; indeed, a naive flat stake on the market favorite out-earns all four agents. Yet the agents diverge sharply as decision-makers: betting return-on-investment ranges from -18% to +10%, fading the market is unprofitable for all four, the share of forecasts that cite the market ranges from 12% to 100%, and self-reported error rates on wrong picks range from 36% to 86%. The benchmark thus measures calibration, decision quality, and self-knowledge – axes on which frontier models differ even when their predictions do not. Data and code: https://github.com/graphuofm/FIFA2026LLM
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Machine Learning

Generalize and Guide: Decomposing Rewards for Few-Shot Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) provides a powerful framework for learning from demonstrations. However, real-world tasks often exhibit substantial natural variations (e.g., picking up mugs with varying shapes), making it impractical to collect demonstrations that fully specify a new task under every possible scenario. In practice, while demonstrations for the target task are limited, it is often easier to obtain datasets of heterogeneous but related behaviors. This motivates the problem of few-shot IRL with multi-task demonstrations (FM-IRL), where an agent must learn a new task with substantial variations from only a limited number of target-task demonstrations, together with sufficient demonstrations of related tasks and online agent experience. To do so, we must both recover the expert distribution of the new task and provide guidance when the agent deviates from it. We introduce Multitask discriminator Proximity-Guided IRL (MPG), which learns two complementary reward components: (1) a generalizable discriminator that transfers shared structure across related tasks to identify expert behavior in a new task, and (2) a proximity function that measures how far a state deviates from expert behavior and provides corrective guidance during exploration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple challenging navigation and manipulation tasks under significant variations (e.g., object configurations, table layouts, and initial robot poses), achieving an average success rate of 81.2%, outperforming the strongest per-task baseline by an average of 24.7 percentage points.
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Machine Learning

Towards Reliable Zero-Shot Crowd Forecasting: Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Special Event Pedestrian Forecasting

Managing massive crowds during infrequent special events requires reliable real-time pedestrian-flow forecasting to ensure public safety and operational efficiency. However, supervised forecasting methods face limitations in these contexts due to scarce historical data, heterogeneous data distributions, and short in-event observation windows. To effectively support operational decision-making, forecasts should provide not only accurate point estimates but also informative predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in this aspect, particularly capturing sudden volatility and tail risks. This paper investigates pretrained time series foundation models as a lightweight approach for zero-shot probabilistic forecasting without extensive local retraining. Using decision-oriented metrics tailored to short events, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of two time series foundation models on crowd forecasting, with the SAIL2025 event as a use case. We then distill practical insights for crowd managers, specifying when zero-shot forecasts remain operationally reliable.
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All authors Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin, Tina Comes, Serge Hoogendoorn

Machine Learning

MXSens: Sensitivity-Aware Mixed-Precision Quantization for Efficient LLM Inference

4-bit quantization enables efficient LLM inference, but suffers from significant accuracy degradation due to outliers. Prior work addresses this problem via data rotation or mixed-precision integer quantization, but often relies on software-managed scaling and frequent dequantization, incurring substantial overhead. Microscaling formats, such as MXINT, eliminate these inefficiencies by encoding scales in hardware, yet remain incompatible with rotation-based methods. Our analysis reveals that outliers vary in severity, from rare extremes to frequent mild deviations, and that quantization sensitivity is unevenly distributed across layers and columns. These insights motivate a fine-grained, sensitivity-guided approach. We introduce MXSens, a training-free method that assigns mixed mantissa bitwidths (4/6/8) based on column- and layer-wise sensitivity, naturally leveraging the block-wise structure of MXINT. MXSens outperforms state-of-the-art quantization methods across a range of models and tasks. Under the W4A4KV4 setting, MXSens achieves perplexities of 3.77 and 7.63 on LLaMA-2-70B and LLaMA-3-8B, respectively, substantially improving over existing baselines on WikiText-2. Our work establishes a new balance between accuracy and resource efficiency for LLM quantization.
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All authors Simla Burcu Harma, Danila Mishin, Zhengyuan Su, Ayan Chakraborty, Elizaveta Kostenok, Dongho Ha, Babak Falsafi, Martin Jaggi, Yunho Oh, Amir Yazdanbakhsh

Machine Learning

Planning with Transformers: Chain of Computation and Structured Context Windows

Large Language Models (LLMs) have had a remarkable impact across many areas of machine learning. However, recent studies have shown that they struggle to reliably solve planning problems, particularly when compared with classical planners. Even with recent advances in reasoning-oriented models, the extent to which LLMs can genuinely perform planning remains an open question. At the same time, theoretical results have shown that transformers, the core architecture underlying modern LLMs, are Turing-complete. In this work, we investigate this apparent gap between the theoretical computational power of LLMs and their empirical planning performance. We propose Chain of Computation (COC), a computational architecture that places a transformer-based LM inside an iterative loop and leverages its strength as a pattern-matching system. COC uses a Structured Context Window (SCW) as external memory, allowing the model to access only the portion of the accumulated context required at each planning step and thereby maintain an approximately constant input size. Within this architecture, the LM learns the planning policy and world model and performs the arithmetic operations required during planning. We show that relatively small LMs trained from scratch can learn planning procedures from a small number of training instances and generalize to unseen problems, achieving success rates above 99% on BlocksWorld and the Pancake puzzle. We further show that COC can be formulated as a pushdown automaton (PDA). This formulation can solve Tower of Hanoi (TOH) instances with up to 20 disks and enables the planner to execute the depth-first search (DFS) algorithm. Theoretically, we characterize how the accumulation of irrelevant context increases planning failure probability under the standard full-context setup and how the SCW mitigates this effect.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

An Adjoint-Sensitivity Framework for Lost-in-the-Middle Phenomena in Causal Residual Transformers

We develop an adjoint-sensitivity framework for positional influence in causal residual Transformers and separate unconditional analytic results from conditional boundary-shape conclusions. The principal unconditional theorem is the residual-to-depth-flow estimate for layer controls converging in $L^1$, complemented by a finite-token-to-Volterra attention estimate that explicitly controls the first cells near the causal endpoint. We define a normalized adjoint-energy influence density and derive its exact evolution along full-batch gradient flow. The adjoint admits an exact generator-term decomposition into residual transmission, nonlocal Volterra, and local channels, including all covariance cross terms. Causal masking can amplify early-position sensitivity and residual identity paths can transmit a right-localized terminal bias, but neither mechanism alone forces a U-shaped profile. We therefore state boundary advantages under independently checkable energy, correlation, and local-channel bounds; these conditions are sufficient rather than necessary. Finite-token influence balancing, positional reweighting, and task-aligned observability are presented as diagnostics or regularizers with explicit differentiation requirements, computational costs, and limitations. Controlled simulations illustrate that each intervention controls its designated surrogate, while observability balance or outer-loop reweighting need not monotonically reduce the influence-based Lost-in-the-Middle diagnostic.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ME

Equality, Equity, and Causality in Fairness Research: A Commentary on Cheng (2026)

This is an invited commentary on the Psychometrika focus article "Fairness Issues and Evaluation in Psychometrics and AI/ML: What Can We Learn from Each Field?" by Ying Cheng (2026, doi:10.1017/psy.2026.10110). Cheng offers a systematic comparison between long-standing test fairness and modern algorithmic fairness. Her mapping of the entire testing workflow onto the AI/ML fairness paradigm, rather than only the final selection stage, is a crucial contribution to interdisciplinary fairness research. This commentary extends her discussion by examining two conceptual issues: the distinction between equality and equity, and the role of causality in fairness research. The focus article and this commentary point to directions for future fairness research across the psychometrics and AI/ML communities.
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Machine Learning

Uncovering Latent Reasoning Strategies in Language Models

A language model $p_\theta(y \mid x)$ trained on reasoning tasks learns to solve problems via multiple distinct strategies, yet these strategies are implicit and entangled within the model's response distribution. We study the problem of decomposing the response distribution of a given pretrained language model into a structured, strategy-conditioned representation. Specifically, we learn a latent-variable factorization $p_\theta(y \mid x) \leadsto (r_\phi(z \mid x), g_\phi(y \mid x,z))$, where a router $r$ maps each input to a distribution over latent strategies $z$ and a generator $g$ produces the response conditioned on that strategy. A key challenge is that the generator, initialized from the base model, already represents $p_\theta(y \mid x)$ without using $z$. Standard variational inference therefore gives the model no incentive to route information through $z$ and can yield a severe form of posterior collapse. To address this, we propose a variational objective that measures fractional information gain relative to the base model's response loss and concentrates reconstruction pressure on tokens with high base model surprisal, encouraging $z$ to encode strategy-relevant response variation. We introduce a benchmark of multi-strategy algorithmic tasks and show that this objective recovers latent codes aligned with distinct reference strategies while preserving the base model's response distribution.
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Machine Learning

Beyond Objective Expressivity: Geometry Preservation in Multimodal Contrastive Learning

Contrastive learning is increasingly moving toward settings with three or more modalities instead of image-text pairs. Yet, extending models from pairwise to higher-order multimodal alignment can introduce optimization and representation challenges. We identify encoder Jacobian conditioning as a key factor in trimodal contrastive learning: poorly conditioned encoders exhibit collapsing or amplified singular-value spectra, leading to exploding Jacobian condition numbers and degraded multimodal alignment. We introduce geometry-preserving encoders (GPEs) by directly conditioning the Jacobian through regularization and demonstrating that simple modifications like LeakyReLU activations and residual paths recover these geometric benefits. Across a synthetic benchmark and four real-world datasets including missing modalities, improving Jacobian conditioning boosts retrieval and linear probe performance across multiple contrastive objectives, whereas expressive objectives yield little benefit in linear probes. More broadly, our results show that multimodal contrastive learning depends not only on objective expressivity, but also on the geometric and optimization properties of the underlying encoders.
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Machine Learning

GeneSpeak-FP: Target and Compound Retrieval from Observed Cell-Level Perturbation Signatures

Single-cell perturbation profiles may help identify known compounds across cellular contexts. We present GeneSpeak-FP, a gene-token Transformer that jointly ranks recorded compounds and their target annotations from a treated cell relative to a cell-line-specific DMSO reference, together with a coarse organ token. On Tahoe-100M, we split 11,673 drug–cell-line groups 90/10 within each compound. No complete group is shared across partitions, although compound and cell-line identities may recur. In a 38,400-query Monte Carlo pass, the correct compound appears first for 12.9% of cells and within the top 10 for 34.3%, among 379 fixed candidates. The model retrieves 40.8% of annotated targets within the top 10 and 54.4% within the top 20, from a vocabulary of 278 genes. Top-10 compound retrieval and target recall are approximately 13 and 11 times their expected values under uniformly random rankings; top-1 compound retrieval is nearly 49 times chance. Top-10 compound retrieval also exceeds the strongest evaluated post-hoc bag-of-genes control by more than nine times. A separate stochastic pass from the same validation pool gives nearly identical aggregate results. These findings support retrospective candidate-space narrowing in held-out drug–cell-line contexts. Because compound identities may recur and target labels are non-exhaustive metadata, they do not establish unseen-compound discovery, causal target identification, or clinical utility.
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