Machine Learning
All you need is SAMPAT
Jayadeva and Madhur Aswani
The current state of the art in AI/ML rests on deep neural architectures, which, in general, suffer from a lack of interpretability. Interpretability is crucial to gleaning insights while analyzing experimental data, where quantitative predictions may not be adequate for a scientist. We present a three layer neural architecture, SAMPAT (Smooth Approximation via Multivariate
Polynomials and Analytic Transformations), that can provably learn a continuous, everywhere differentiable function, that can approximate any smooth function arbitrarily closely. SAMPAT's approximant can be expressed as a closed and compact algebraic, analytic expression, providing complete interpretability. Experiments on synthetic and
benchmark datasets indicate that SAMPAT yields competitive performance with simpler representations. For many tasks, a two layer SAMPAT suffices. By imposing restrictions on the connectivity between
neurons, SAMPAT may be used to provide a range of approximants, including regular and trigonometric
polynomials, rational expressions, Gaussians, mixtures of Gaussians, as well as arbitrary combinations of the same; without restrictions, it learns a suitable structure. SAMPAT may be used to factorize
polynomials and model nonlinear systems. With the addition of skip connections, a 4 to 6 layer SAMPAT is adequate to represent a substantive range of methods widely used in AI/ML, allowing the choice of a model's family, not just its parameters, to also be optimized as part of the learning process.
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Machine Learning
Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting under Distribution Shifts: A Synthetic Evaluation
Konrad Özdemir, Julia Gastinger, Lukas Kirchdorfer et al. (+1 more)
Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent evolving relational systems, whose underlying data-generating processes often change over time. Yet, TKG
forecasting models are commonly evaluated only on empirical
benchmark datasets that provide limited insight into the models' robustness to such distribution shifts. Recognising this issue, we study TKG
forecasting under controlled shift environments using a synthetic TKG generator that encodes three temporal and structural properties – recurrence, homophily, and periodicity – as data-generating mechanisms. This allows us to evaluate seven
forecasting architectures under stationary and shifting regimes. Our experiments suggest that robustness in TKG
forecasting is highly signal-dependent. Recurrence-based and periodic regularities are largely recoverable under stationary conditions, and simple
memory-based baselines can be competitive when recurrence dominates the data. However, structural breaks reveal limitations in model adaptivity, with shifts in latent entity-community structure posing the strongest challenge in our study. Overall, our findings improve the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of current TKG models confronted with temporal distribution shifts.
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All authors Konrad Özdemir, Julia Gastinger, Lukas Kirchdorfer, Heiner Stuckenschmidt
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-fin.TR
When Does Order Flow Matter? State-Dependent L2 Liquidity-State Transitions in Crypto Futures
Joohyoung Jeon
Building event-conditioned
market models requires separating macro-event labels from persistent microstructure state. We study this distinction in Binance BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures from 2023-2026, combining top-20 L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows. We define a supervised discrete L2 liquidity-state transition task, distinct from latent-regime detection and price-direction prediction, and evaluate models in rolling monthly out-of-sample folds with event-clustered validation and blocked permutation tests, admitting each feature layer only if it improves on the layer below it on the same panel. Within these event windows, the first-order predictive signal is the pre-event L2 liquidity state: a coarse pre-event state baseline strongly predicts post-event liquidity regimes, interpretable logit models over continuous L2 features fail to improve on it, and a shallow nonlinear L2 model adds a robust further gain of comparable size to the state baseline's own. The macro-event calendar enters only by locating the windows and supplying matched non-event controls; we use event timing but not the event's label content, so pre-event state competes against an uninformed within-window baseline, not against the event type. Order flow adds further value only when layered on top of the L2 state model, not as a replacement. This value is not robustly cross-symbol: for ETH it is present across calm, mixed, and stressed regimes and largest under stressed pre-event liquidity, whereas BTC shows only isolated five-minute passes and no regime that clears at both horizons. These findings motivate a state-first design principle for
market microstructure models. We provide a liquidity-state transition baseline and evaluation protocol that reinforcement-learning, execution-policy, or LLM-based context layers should exceed before their added value is credited.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Complexity-Guided Component-wise Initialization for Language Model Pretraining
Konstantin Garbers and Nicholas Oh
Pretrained
language models often exhibit structured weight spectra, suggesting that training may repeatedly produce similar layerwise and component-wise organization. We ask whether these recurring spectral patterns can be reused as an initialization signal for GPT-2-style
language-model pretraining. First, we analyze eleven pretrained GPT-2-style checkpoints that vary in size,
language, tokenizer, and training corpus, measuring Frobenius norm and effective-rank
entropy across layers and
Transformer subcomponents. The checkpoints show shared depth trends, especially increasing scale and stronger spectral concentration in residual-writing
matrices. We then construct initialization schemes that imitate the component-wise magnitudes and spectral profiles of pretrained models, and compare them with several weight initialization methods. These initializers visibly change the model's structural spectral patterns, but the evaluation results do not show a corresponding performance advantage. Pretrained-weight reuse remains competitive, while coarse spectral matching alone is not a reliable optimization strategy. Our results suggest that pretrained spectra are useful diagnostics of trained model structure, but that effective reuse likely requires preserving richer information than component-wise scale and singular-value shape.
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Machine Learning
Interference and Retention in Continual Learning
Julius Störk
Continual learning commonly relies on post-hoc mechanisms such as replay, elastic regularization, or
distillation. This work argues that forgetting should instead be modeled directly as interference between tasks. In the frozen-feature regime, forgetting from learning a new task is exactly the interference energy induced on the old task. In deep networks, the same quantity is recovered through path-averaged
curvature with minimal additional forward passes. When task supports are disjoint, forgetting can be eliminated structurally and when task supports overlap in conflicting directions, a non-zero distortion floor is unavoidable. The same geometry optimally merges models through task-aware orthogonalization. From this analysis we derive Interference-Gated Functional Allocation (IGFA), a replay-free, Fisher-free method that shares directions when tasks align and protects them when they conflict. Across
benchmarks, IGFA achieves lossless retention when tasks are structurally separable and moves unavoidable cost from irreversible forgetting into deferred but recoverable plasticity when they are not. It matches the strongest replay-free structural baselines on dissimilar-task streams and improves on unconditional projection when similarity makes transfer worth preserving.
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Machine Learning
Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design
Jolanta Śliwa and Jakub Adamczyk
Designing balanced adversaries is a central but labor-intensive task in tabletop role-playing game (TTRPG) development. In systems such as Pathfinder, each monster is described by many numerical attributes that jointly determine its power, summarized as an ordinal level. We investigate whether machine learning can support designers by predicting this level from a monster's attributes, framing the task as tabular ordinal regression. We introduce what is, to our knowledge, the first
dataset built specifically for TTRPG monster-level prediction, derived from publicly available Pathfinder Second Edition data. Using it, we compare classical regression models with rounding schemes, dedicated tabular ordinal regression
algorithms, and neural networks with ordinal-aware losses. To mirror real design workflows, we evaluate all models under chronological and expanding-window protocols with several complementary metrics. Results show that tree-based ensembles outperform linear models and neural approaches, achieving near-perfect ordinal ranking and high predictive accuracy. Explainable AI analyses, such as feature importance and error distributions, show that the model is aligned with human intuition and follows patterns grounded in game rules. Together, these results show that machine learning can reliably approximate designer judgments and serve as an effective computer-aided tool for monster balancing and broader TTRPG system design.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
GenVid2Robot: From Video Generation to Robot Manipulation via Rigid-Geometric Consistency
Haohui Huang, Xi Yuan, Panpan Liao et al. (+4 more)
Generated
videos provide useful visual motion priors for
robot manipulation, but their visual plausibility does not imply physical executability. A generated
video usually lacks metric geometry, grasp grounding,
robot kinematic feasibility, and execution-time feedback, which makes direct trajectory replay unreliable in real-world manipulation. This paper presents GenVid2
Robot, a rigid-
geometric consistency framework that converts generated
video motion into executable real-
robot manipulation trajectories. Given an initial RGB-D observation and a task instruction, GenVid2
Robot samples task-relevant semantic anchors from the real first frame, tracks these anchors through generated
video candidates, and verifies whether the resulting 2D motion can be explained by first-frame RGB-D anchors under a sparse relative $SE(3)$ model. In this way, generated
videos are treated as uncertain visual motion hypotheses rather than direct
robot demonstrations. Only geometrically consistent motion is transferred to the
robot. The accepted relative motion is then applied to the real grasp-time TCP pose selected by mask-constrained grasping, producing a grasp-conditioned execution trajectory that is consistent with both the visual motion prior and the physical grasp configuration. To reduce execution mismatch caused by RGB-D noise, calibration residuals, and small contact-induced displacement, a bounded depth-compensation module corrects local depth-direction errors without assuming full online replanning. Real-
robot experiments demonstrate that GenVid2
Robot improves the reliability of generated-
video-guided manipulation by grounding visual motion priors with sparse metric geometry, grasp constraints,
robot feasibility checking, and bounded execution feedback.
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All authors Haohui Huang, Xi Yuan, Panpan Liao, Tao Teng, Chenguang Yang, Jing Guo, Yi Guo
Machine Learning
Understanding Schedule-Free Methods in Nonconvex Optimization: Rate Guarantees and Escaping Saddles
Jiseok Chae and Donghwan Kim
Schedule-Free methods have attracted growing interest for alleviating the burden of designing and tuning a learning rate scheduler, while matching and sometimes even outperforming optimizers with tuned schedulers. Despite their strong empirical results, their convergence theory in nonconvex optimization, where modern machine learning objectives typically arise, has remained largely unexplored. In this paper, we provide worst-case analyses of Schedule-Free gradient descent and Schedule-Free
stochastic gradient descent, in their standard form and without auxiliary modifications or restrictive conditions, for smooth but possibly nonconvex objectives. Based on a Lyapunov analysis derived from the continuous-time limiting ordinary differential equation associated with these methods, we show that Schedule-Free gradient descent and Schedule-Free
stochastic gradient descent achieve the optimal worst-case convergence rates attainable among first-order methods. We further formulate Schedule-Free gradient descent as a nonautonomous dynamical system and prove strict-saddle avoidance under an arbitrarily small one-time perturbation. These theoretical results provide a better understanding of the strong performance that Schedule-Free methods demonstrate.
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Machine Learning
COAST: Context-Aware Differential Learning for Gene Expression Prediction in Spatial Transcriptomics
Keunho Byeon, Sunhong Park, Jeewoo Lim et al. (+1 more)
Spatial transcriptomics enables profiling of spatial gene expression but is limited by high cost and low throughput, motivating prediction from H&E histopathology images. Existing context-aware methods mainly supervise absolute expression, while relative expression relationships between spots are rarely used explicitly. We propose COAST, a context-aware differential learning framework for spatial gene expression prediction. COAST conditions the local and global context features with type-specific modulation and aggregates the target and context spot
tokens using a
Transformer encoder to capture both fine-grained local patterns and slide-level structure. It is trained with a joint objective that combines absolute expression regression with signed differential regression between the target and context spots. Experiments on multiple spatial transcriptomics
datasets show consistent improvements in correlation- and distribution-based metrics, demonstrating the effectiveness of context-aware differential learning for histology-based spatial gene expression prediction.
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All authors Keunho Byeon, Sunhong Park, Jeewoo Lim, Jin Tae Kwak
Machine Learning
A Personalized Computational Framework for Assessing the Sufficiency of Partially Observed Data in Healthcare AI models
Qingchu Jin, Felistas Mazhude, Jamie B. Rabb et al. (+3 more)
Achieving early and timely diagnosis and treatment for disease is a major challenge. Recent applications of machine learning (ML)
algorithms trained on patient data have shown promise in many different settings for predicting the patient health state. A challenge often faced when applying these ML
algorithms is that at any given time, not all clinical variables (features) needed as input to perform prediction tasks are available. We define the concept of full-feature-capacity (FFC) to refer to prediction performance when such
algorithms make use of all features on which they were trained. We then introduce Feature Sufficiency Analysis (FSA) - an analysis for determining whether a subset of all clinical features needed by an AI model is sufficient to achieve FFC. FSA estimates the underlying distributions of missing variables conditioned on features that are available. FSA provides a patient-specific assessment of whether the existing set of measured features achieves FFC. If yes, then there is no need to acquire further inputs and a ML-based prediction. We provide two case studies: prediction of need for postoperative prolonged ventilation in patients recovering from heart surgery; 10-year mortality prediction in an outpatient cohort. We also demonstrate that FSA also provides a clinically interpretable feature-ranking methodology based on prediction sufficiency, identifies intrinsically hard-to-predict patient populations, and has the potential to perform cost-aware optimization for clinical data acquisition. FSA provides a generic computational approach for determining whether incomplete clinical information is sufficient to support trustworthy AI-assisted clinical decision-making, thereby facilitating the prospective deployment of healthcare AI systems across diverse clinical settings.
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All authors Qingchu Jin, Felistas Mazhude, Jamie B. Rabb, Robert S. Kramer, Douglas B. Sawyer, Raimond L. Winslow
Machine Learning
Activation Steering Transfer to Agents: One Gain Ratio Does Not Identify Potency and Efficacy
Lucas Pinto
Additive activation steering is calibrated in single-turn chat, then deployed inside
agent scaffolds. The quantity usually reported for that move is a gain: a ratio of steered effects, T = Delta_
agent / Delta_chat. We sweep eight family x arm dose-response
cells over six models in both deployment contexts and show this ratio does not identify potency and efficacy. Reconstructing the published
estimator in both of its forms on our own grids, its realized range contains 1 in five of five scorable
cells, it moves with dose in four of five, and two
cells with opposite potency shifts, both CI-clean on the primary grid, return gain intervals overlapping at a width under 0.08. Every scorable
cell is an amplifier at one dose and an attenuator at another, so an amplify/attenuate taxonomy reports the dose it was read at. We replace the gain with a location: dEC50 = EC50_
agent - EC50_chat, the cross-context difference in a curve location. It is signed both ways on this roster's primary grid, across four model families (+1.013 [+0.777, +1.273] against -12.368, -10.855, -5.497 and -886.066 elsewhere) and beats a vertical rescaling at equal complexity in all five
cells of a frozen audit (four under the registered trim). Three deflationary accounts are measured and rejected on sign pattern and magnitude. We report the discipline at the same volume as the result: one
cell is quarantined loudly, our pre-registered forecaster was refuted out of sample and is published as refuted, a registered salvage claim produced no qualifying
cell and is reported unanswered, and a census of our own register reports registered branches no code here could have emitted. The consequence is a measurement instruction rather than a
theorem: a transfer conclusion read at one strength does not identify what changed, because a displacement and a gain are not distinguishable from a single operating point.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC
Control Laguerre Tessellation: Semi-discrete Optimal Transport Over Control Systems
Ripon C. Sarker and Abhishek Halder
We study the optimal transport of optimally controlled
agents from a compactly supported absolutely continuous source to a discrete target measure. The ground cost for the transport is induced by the optimal cost of the
agents' motion. When this ground cost satisfies the twist condition, the optimal transport map is given almost everywhere in terms of a Laguerre tessellation of the state space. We refer to this control-theoretic generalization of Laguerre tessellation as Control Laguerre Tessellation (CLT), and illustrate it for two ground costs induced by linear controlled
agents with minimum energy and minimum time objectives.
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Machine Learning
Power Flow Feasibility Assessment Using Variational Graph Autoencoders
Ferran Bohigas-Daranas, Hamid Latif-Martinez, Eduardo Prieto-Araujo et al. (+2 more)
Data-driven methods, including graph neural networks, have been studied for accelerating power flow calculations in recent years, but very little
attention has been paid to the solution feasibility, which can be obtained by traditional solvers. This paper presents a Variational Graph Autoencoder (VGAE) that detects the power flow solution feasibility, using the IEEE 118-bus case, to assess the validity of the solutions provided by AI-driven solvers.
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All authors Ferran Bohigas-Daranas, Hamid Latif-Martinez, Eduardo Prieto-Araujo, Pere Barlet-Ros, Oriol Gomis-Bellmunt
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph
Quantum-Enhanced Synthetic Data Generation Using Quantum Circuit Born Machines for Imbalanced Tabular Learning
Tanapol Nuatho, Narisorn Sangnakara, Prapong Prechaprapranwong et al. (+1 more)
Data scarcity and class imbalance are persistent challenges in machine learning that degrade model generalization and introduce predictive bias. We present a hybrid
quantum-classical framework for synthetic data generation using a
Quantum Circuit Born Machine (QCBM) to address these limitations. The proposed approach exploits
quantum mechanical properties – superposition and
entanglement – within a parameterized variational
quantum circuit to model complex probability distributions that are difficult for classical generative methods to capture. Experiments are conducted on two tabular
benchmark datasets: the Iris
dataset and the Telco Customer Churn
dataset. Preprocessing includes normalization and PCA-based dimensionality reduction to enable efficient basis encoding for
quantum circuits. The QCBM is trained by minimizing Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between real and generated data distributions using a gradient-based parameter-shift optimization rule. Augmenting training data with QCBM-generated synthetic samples at 40-50% of the minority class improves F1-score by approximately 5-15% and minority-class recall by 10-25%. Cross-domain evaluations (Train on Synthetic, Test on Real; and Train on Real, Test on Synthetic) reveal a performance gap of only 3-10%, indicating strong distributional fidelity. Comparative analysis against classical oversampling methods – SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE, KMeansSMOTE, and SVM-SMOTE – shows that QCBM achieves competitive classification performance and produces lower Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) on the Telco
dataset, suggesting superior structural similarity in certain imbalanced settings. These findings establish QCBM as a viable complementary tool for data augmentation, particularly for low-dimensional structured tabular data with class imbalance.
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All authors Tanapol Nuatho, Narisorn Sangnakara, Prapong Prechaprapranwong, Rajchawit Sarochawikasit
Machine Learning
Quantum Circuits in Diffusion Models: A Fair-Comparison Study and a Mechanistic Analysis of Angle-Embedding Failures
Jaeuk Kim and Sanghoon Yoo
We study the integration of variational
quantum circuits (VQCs) into
diffusion models through a squeeze-and-excitation (SE) channel-modulation scaffold that isolates the
quantum contribution. Using a role-matched classical control and multi-seed significance testing across DDPM and latent
diffusion on MNIST and CIFAR-10, with a score-based NCSN study on MNIST, we find that
quantum cores achieve comparable mean FID to the classical control across DDPM and latent
diffusion, while paired sampling-seed tests for EfficientSU2 detect no statistically significant difference. Although the
quantum cores use $4.5$–$9\times$ fewer core parameters than the role-matched control, parameter-matched classical controls attain comparable mean FID, so the experiments do not establish a
quantum parameter-efficiency advantage. We further identify a structural failure in score-based NCSN: the unbounded score target, proportional to $1/\sigma$, drives angle-
embedding inputs far beyond the $2\pi$ period of rotation gates, causing phase aliasing and collapse of the
quantum modulator. A bounding transformation, $\theta \leftarrow \pi \tanh(\cdot)$, maps inputs to the non-aliasing domain and substantially improves both
quantum cores. Since all
circuits are classically simulated at a few-
qubit scale, we do not claim
quantum advantage. Instead, the study provides a fair-comparison protocol for
quantum-enhanced generative models and a mechanistic account of when and why angle
embeddings fail.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC
Solving Stochastic Fixed-Point Equations with High Probability
Jelena Diakonikolas
We study
stochastic fixed-point equations $\mathbf{T}(\mathbf{x}) = \mathbf{x}$ over normed spaces $(\mathcal{E}, \|\cdot\|)$, where the operator $\mathbf{T}$ is nonexpansive or contractive and is accessed only through unbiased
stochastic evaluations with bounded second central moment. Given $\epsilon > 0, \delta \in (0, 1)$, the goal is to output $\mathbf{x} \in \mathcal{E}$ such that $\|\mathbf{T}(\mathbf{x}) - \mathbf{x}\| \leq \epsilon$ with probability at least $1-\delta$. We introduce VR-GHAL, a variance-reduced gradual Halpern method for quadratically smoothable
Banach spaces. The key algorithmic ingredient is a recursive
stochastic estimator based on clipped differences of oracle evaluations: instead of clipping $\tau(\mathbf{x}; \xi)$ itself, we clip
stochastic differences at the Lipschitz scale $\gamma\|\mathbf{x} - \mathbf{y}\|$. This makes the
estimator pathwise Lipschitz along the algorithmic trajectory while permitting martingale concentration under finite second moments in the native norm. Our main
theorem gives an anytime high-probability residual bound: on a single event of probability at least $1 - \delta$, the residual decreases nearly geometrically across epochs, up to lower-order logarithmic factors. Under only bounded variance, displaying only the dependence on the target error $\epsilon$ and Lipschitz constant $\gamma \in (0, 1]$ of $\mathbf{T}$, the resulting oracle complexity is $\min\{\epsilon^{-5}, (1-\gamma)^{-3}\epsilon^{-2}\}$. Under a Lipschitz-in-expectation oracle, the dependence improves to the corresponding $\epsilon^{-3}$ nonexpansive rate (i.e., for $\gamma = 1$), and under samplewise nonexpansiveness to $\epsilon^{-2}$.
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Machine Learning
EXHOLD: Experience-Aware Real-Time Hold Control for Large-Scale Ride-Hailing Matching at DiDi
Xu Liu, Kai Wan and Zihao Lu
In large-scale ride-hailing, hold control is a critical mechanism for improving passenger-driver experience. By selectively delaying certain driver-order pairs, the system waits for better opportunities, reduces cancellations, and mitigates wasted driver effort. However, existing industrial hold strategies often rely on heuristic thresholding over multiple predictive models, which can be brittle under non-stationary traffic and hard to optimize for multi-objective experience signals. We propose EXHOLD, a deployable two-stage framework decoupling experience-aware pair assessment from hold-time execution. In Stage I, we learn a decision model assigning each driver-order pair to discrete, interpretable experience tiers by optimizing a unified objective that aggregates satisfaction signals across the matching funnel. In Stage II, we solve for a monotone hold-time schedule via constrained optimization over empirical
quantiles. This explicitly enforces service guardrails bounding the unnecessary holding of promising matches while maximizing overall experience improvement. We evaluate EXHOLD through randomized A/B experiments in DiDi's production system in Brazil. Results show consistent gains in marketplace efficiency and experience: EXHOLD increases trip completion and driver income, significantly reduces passenger cancellations, and improves funnel efficiency. Ablations and behavioral analyses confirm both stages are essential and that the policy makes calibrated decisions under spatiotemporal heterogeneity. EXHOLD is currently deployed, serving production traffic in Brazil.
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Machine Learning
A Survey on the Green Development of Large Models: From Resource-Efficient Architectures to Hardware-Software Co-Design
Linhui Xiao, Guiping Cao, Mingyue Guo et al. (+6 more)
The rapid expansion of large-scale AI models has led to significant performance breakthroughs across diverse domains, yet it has also raised critical concerns regarding computational costs, energy consumption, and environmental sustainability. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the green development of large models, emphasizing resource-efficient architectures and full-stack hardware-software co-design. We systematically review recent advances in efficient model construction, including
attention operator optimization, linear-complexity architectures, and model sparsification and merging, as well as training and deployment strategies such as data-efficient learning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, and computational compression. Beyond algorithmic improvements, we explore energy-efficient AI hardware, including mainstream AI chips,
memory optimization, cross-platform deployment, and sustainable infrastructure. Furthermore, we examine how large models are being applied to sustainability-critical domains such as DeepSeek, remote sensing interpretation, national-scale infrastructure, and global initiatives. Finally, we discuss key challenges and future directions, highlighting the need for continual learning paradigms,
memory-centric hardware, and standardized evaluation protocols. This survey aims to offer a holistic roadmap toward sustainable, scalable, and socially responsible development of large models. Paper homepage: https://cje.ejournal.org.cn/article/doi/10.23919/cje.2025.00.438
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All authors Linhui Xiao, Guiping Cao, Mingyue Guo, Xianchao Guan, Fan Yang, Ming Tao, Xin Li, Yuxin Peng, Yaowei Wang
Machine Learning
Pitfalls and Remedies for Multi-Task Bayesian Optimization
Carl Hvarfner, Sam Daulton, Max Balandat et al. (+1 more)
Bayesian optimization routinely warm-starts a target experiment with data from related source tasks, and the multi-task Gaussian process is the textbook surrogate for the job. We revisit this default in a controlled setting and find that it misestimates the cross-task correlation even in the simplest non-trivial case, affinely related source and target tasks, where a working transfer learning method should obviously succeed. We trace the failure to two independent structural mechanisms. Per-task standardization, the textbook fix for the affine slice ambiguity, propagates a finite-sample
alignment error into the recovered correlation. The marginal likelihood itself identifies the correlation only at a per-sample rate that a Gaussian process at non-overlapping designs further dilutes. We propose three conservative remedies that follow from the analysis: promoting per-task means and scales to model parameters, restricting the task covariance to non-negative correlations, and co-locating part of the source and target designs. Across synthetic multi-task problems and surrogate-based hyperparameter tuning transfer, these remedies recover the target-only baseline on the simple instances, while the broader failure persists on harder instances and across most rank-based and latent-context variants.
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All authors Carl Hvarfner, Sam Daulton, Max Balandat, Eytan Bakshy
Machine Learning
EvoLP: Self-Evolving Latency Predictor for Model Compression in Real-Time Edge Systems
Shuo Huai, Hao Kong, Shiqing Li et al. (+5 more)
Edge devices are increasingly utilized for deploying deep learning applications on embedded systems. The real-time nature of many applications and the limited resources of edge devices necessitate latency-targeted neural network compression. However, measuring latency on real devices is challenging and expensive. Therefore, this letter presents a novel and efficient framework, named EvoLP, to accurately predict the inference latency of models on edge devices. This predictor can evolve to achieve higher latency prediction precision during the network compression process. Experimental results demonstrate that EvoLP outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches by being evaluated on three edge devices and four model variants. Moreover, when incorporated into a model compression framework, it effectively guides the compression process for higher model accuracy while satisfying strict latency constraints. We open source EvoLP at https://github.com/ntuliuteam/EvoLP.
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All authors Shuo Huai, Hao Kong, Shiqing Li, Xiangzhong Luo, Ravi Subramaniam, Christian Makaya, Qian Lin, Weichen Liu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
On Locality and Length Generalization in Visual Reasoning
Pulkit Madan, Sanjay Haresh, Reza Ebrahimi et al. (+3 more)
A striking feature of the human visual system is that it ingests visual information through a series of local foveated glimpses, rather than a single global computation. This makes human
vision distinctly different from most popular computer
vision models in use today, which input images globally and in a single shot. A natural question therefore is whether local, sequential
vision models may provide any fundamental computational benefits in addition to being biologically more plausible than global models. In this work, we investigate this question from the perspective of visual state tracking and length generalization. Inspired by recent studies of length generalization in
language models, we study the behavior of
vision models trained on simple
vision tasks that require the aggregation of local information across an image. Our experiments reveal that, similar to
language models,
vision models can learn to exploit global shortcuts and thereby fail to generalize over task length or complexity. We also show that recurrent
vision policies based on strictly local perception can mitigate these failures, thereby allowing models to generalize on these tasks. Our results show that local
attention may be an essential overlooked requirement for robust compositional generalization.
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All authors Pulkit Madan, Sanjay Haresh, Reza Ebrahimi, Sunny Panchal, Apratim Bhattacharyya, Roland Memisevic
Machine Learning
COBS: Cumulant Order Block Sparse Attention
Alexander Tian, Aditya Ghai, Sanjit Neelam et al. (+2 more)
Block sparse
attention is a hardware friendly way to alleviate the key-value (KV) cache read bottleneck in large
language models (LLMs). However, it is not prevalent among leading open-weight LLMs, which rely instead on dense
attention or fine-grained selection, thereby motivating our analysis. We study DeepSeek's Native Sparse
Attention (NSA) as a representative method, whose three-branch design lets us isolate block selection, the most challenging and consequential stage. We formalize selection and reduce it to ranking blocks by a single quantity, the
attention mass: the sum of a block's
attention scores. We show that if selection retrieves the blocks with the largest
attention mass, block sparse
attention can match the quality of dense
attention. However, computing the exact
attention mass requires reading every key, so the problem of block selection ultimately reduces to approximating this mass from a compact summary instead of the full keys. Via a cumulant expansion, we show why existing methods falter: their selection strategies attempt to estimate the
attention mass, but are confined to a first-order approximation. Therefore, we propose COBS (Cumulant Order Block Sparse
Attention), an
attention method that builds on NSA, incorporating a novel selector that stores a compressed second-order statistic per block. On the 32k RULER long-context
retrieval benchmark, COBS raises the NSA baseline's mean score from 0.2999 to 0.8195, approaching dense
attention at 0.9040 and closing about 86% of the gap, while using only 1.21x the KV cache read traffic of the NSA baseline and 15.15x less read traffic than dense. The same model preserves short-context behavior and attains lower position-wise negative log-likelihood (NLL) than dense
attention in our comparison.
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All authors Alexander Tian, Aditya Ghai, Sanjit Neelam, Zaal Vasania, Akshay Mishra
Machine Learning
Learning from Hindsight for VLA Reinforcement Learning
Iris Xu, Sunshine Jiang, John Marangola et al. (+2 more)
Reinforcement learning is increasingly used to fine-tune
vision-
language-action (VLA) models, but
robot interaction is expensive and learning becomes highly sample inefficient when successful rollouts are rare. When reward is assigned only for completing the commanded task, a failed rollout is treated as having no value even if it successfully executes behaviors relevant to that task. A
robot that fails to place the correct object in a bowl may still move that object toward the bowl or place a different object inside it, demonstrating objects and actions that can be reused to solve the target task. These behaviors define auxiliary tasks that the policy can already solve, providing useful learning signals even before it can solve the harder target task. We introduce $\textit{Learning from Hindsight (LfH)}$, which turns such failures into additional learning signals. Using a pretrained
vision-
language model, LfH relabels failed rollouts with the behaviors they actually accomplish and trains the policy jointly on the commanded task and these auxiliary tasks. On out-of-distribution LIBERO-PRO manipulation tasks, LfH matches the final performance of GRPO with approximately $5\times$ fewer rollouts and improves sample efficiency across multiple VLA backbones. On a physical Franka
robot, LfH raises success from $0\%$ to $56\%$ within 160 training rollouts, while GRPO reaches $22\%$.
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All authors Iris Xu, Sunshine Jiang, John Marangola, Pulkit Agrawal, Zhang-Wei Hong
Machine Learning
Variable-Length Generative Protein Design via Generalized Poisson Flow
Chaoran Cheng, Zhanghan Ni, Yanru Qu et al. (+4 more)
The ability to generate variable-length
proteins is crucial in
protein design, where the optimal length is often unknown and tightly coupled to designability. Current
diffusion- and flow-based generative models typically require the
protein length to be specified before sampling, limiting their flexibility in exploring the feasible design space. To address this limitation, we introduce Generalized Poisson Flow (GPFlow), a variable-length generative framework that learns the rate function of an inhomogeneous generalized Poisson process by minimizing its negative log-likelihood. We establish population-level guarantees for recovering the joint
multimodal distribution and derive an upper bound on the KL divergence between the data and generated distributions. We comprehensively evaluate GPFlow across structure and sequence design, motif scaffolding, and peptide co-design, spanning Euclidean, categorical, and Riemannian modalities to fully validate its variable-length generation quality. In unconditional design, GPFlow improves structural designability and achieves the best distributional fitness for sequence design compared to their corresponding fixed-length baselines, while perfectly recovering the length distribution. In conditional motif scaffolding, GPFlow ranks first on 10 of 16 structure-based design tasks with significantly more unique successes and also achieves more passed tasks in sequence-based design. In peptide co-design, GPFlow remains competitive even without access to a native-length oracle.
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All authors Chaoran Cheng, Zhanghan Ni, Yanru Qu, Yuxin Chen, Ruihan Guo, Jiajun Fan, Ge Liu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.AS
Phone Segmentation and Recognition through Phonological Activation Mapping
Shikhar Bharadwaj, Kwanghee Choi, Stephen McIntosh et al. (+8 more)
Phone
segmentation and recognition are inherently related tasks, yet modern approaches typically model them separately. We argue that phonetic structure is already latent in the representations of self-supervised
speech models (S3Ms), so one only needs to steer them to solve both tasks. We leverage S3M-based Phonological Activation Mapping (SPAM), which maps each S3M representation frame to a vector of phonological feature activations, such as voicing and nasality. On top of SPAM, we introduce two simple but effective lightweight, gradient-descent-free prediction heads: a recognition head and a
segmentation head. Our method requires less than a minute of phonetic transcriptions, and the recognition head generalizes to phones unseen during training. Across a diverse range of
datasets, our approach attains strong
segmentation performance.
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All authors Shikhar Bharadwaj, Kwanghee Choi, Stephen McIntosh, Chin-Jou Li, Eunjung Yeo, Daisuke Saito, Nobuaki Minematsu, Shinji Watanabe, Jian Zhu, David Harwath, David R. Mortensen
Machine Learning
Correlation-Aware Contextual Bandits with Surrogate Rewards for LLM Routing
Ajay Narayanan Sridhar, Ronak Singh, Mehrdad Mahdavi et al. (+1 more)
We study contextual bandit problems with correlated arms and access to surrogate reward signals produced by a machine learning model, motivated by applications such as large
language model (LLM) routing. Unlike classical contextual bandits that rely solely on bandit feedback and assume conditional independence across arms, our setting allows context-dependent inter-arm correlations and auxiliary reward information that may be noisy or misspecified. We propose
algorithms that leverage such surrogate rewards through two complementary designs. A coupled reward-mixing approach pools true and surrogate rewards to accelerate learning when surrogate signals are reliable, while a decoupled prediction-mixing approach maintains separate
estimators for bandit feedback and surrogate rewards and adaptively combines their predictions. This decoupling yields robustness to surrogate misspecification, recovering regret guarantees comparable to reward-only bandit methods in the worst case, while achieving improved regret when surrogate predictions are sufficiently informative. We provide theoretical regret analyses for both approaches and evaluate them on LLM routing
benchmarks under varying accuracy versus cost trade-offs. The results demonstrate improved sample efficiency and consistently better accuracy-cost trade-offs compared to standard contextual bandit baselines and strong static routing methods.
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All authors Ajay Narayanan Sridhar, Ronak Singh, Mehrdad Mahdavi, Vijaykrishnan Narayanan
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
RaMark: Radioactive Watermarking for Generated Tabular Data
Xin Che, Lingyang Chu, Qiqi Zhang et al. (+3 more)
Recent advances in generative modeling have made generated tabular data a practical solution for
privacy-sensitive data sharing, where watermarking enables ownership verification. However, existing watermarking methods fundamentally fail under retraining attacks, in which an adversary retrains a generative model on a watermarked
dataset and regenerates high-utility data that no longer carries the watermark. We address this challenge by introducing radioactivity, the property that a watermark remains detectable after generative model retraining, and propose RaMark, a radioactive watermarking method that embeds a sinusoidal dependency as an intrinsic component of the data distribution. By coupling the watermark with the underlying distribution, RaMark ensures that any generative model preserving data utility also has to preserve the watermark. We theoretically show that with high probability removing watermark degrades utility and alters data distribution. Extensive experiments on two real-world tabular
datasets, under a large-scale ownership verification setting with $10^5$ independent data owners, demonstrate that RaMark achieves substantially stronger radioactivity than seven state-of-the-art methods and consistently outperforms them against both retraining and data modification attacks.
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All authors Xin Che, Lingyang Chu, Qiqi Zhang, Xinyu Ma, Xuan Luo, Jian Pei