Papers

Chemical disorder, originating from the mixed occupation of crystallographic sites by multiple elements, is widespread in alloys, ceramics, and compositionally complex materials, where short- and long-range orderings strongly influence properties. A central obstacle is the representation gap between experiments and simulations: experiments often report disorder as partial occupancies and ensemble-averaged behaviors, whereas atomistic simulations and AI workflows usually require fully specified configurations. Tackling this gap requires computational methods that convert averaged disorder descriptions into representative configurational ensembles while balancing cost, bias, and fidelity. This challenge has become more urgent in AI-driven computational discovery, where ignoring disorder may cause AI workflows to misrank stability, misjudge novelty, and misdirect experiments with too-idealized representations. This Review highlights how conventional and AI-driven methods can bridge this representation gap. We assess the strengths and limitations of approaches spanning mean-field theories, cluster expansion, quasi-random approximations, Monte Carlo, and emerging schemes powered by universal interatomic potentials and generative models. We further highlight how AI can accelerate various computational schemes by lowering the cost of microstate evaluation, configurational exploration, and atomistic-to-thermodynamic closure. We also emphasize how AI can enable disorder-native capabilities, including workflow triage, ordering-sensitive and alchemical representations, generative models of disordered structures and distributions, and kinetics-aware disorder prediction. Together, this framework outlines a practical roadmap toward disorder-native AI, which can transform chemical disorder from a representational obstacle into a controllable variable for realistic AI-accelerated materials discovery.

Tensor-valued data arise naturally in neuroimaging, genomics, climate science, and spatiotemporal networks, where multilinear dependencies across modes carry information that is destroyed under vectorization. Existing approaches either impose a single low-rank structure, which can miss localized signal, or treat the tensor as a long vector, which discards its multiway geometry. We propose a *Dual-Channel Tensor Neural Network* (DC-TNN) that decomposes each tensor input into a low-rank core and a sparse refinement, and processes the two components through coupled neural channels. The framework is structure-agnostic and accommodates CP, Tucker, and tensor-train cores within a single architecture. For estimation, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds for the DC-TNN estimator that decompose into network approximation, core estimation, and refinement-selection terms, and show that the effective dimension is determined jointly by the core rank and refinement sparsity rather than by the ambient tensor size. For inference, we develop a *structure-aware conformal ROC* procedure that calibrates within the core-refinement latent space and produces ROC and AUC confidence bands with finite-sample, distribution-free coverage. Building on this, we propose a *conformal structure selector* that, to our knowledge, is the *first distribution-free procedure* for choosing among candidate tensor decompositions with finite-sample validity. Simulations and an analysis of a protein dataset demonstrate competitive predictive accuracy, reliable uncertainty quantification, and consistent recovery of the tensor structure.

Existing neural combinatorial optimization solvers frame solution search as imitation of optimal decisions, inherently limiting their utility to single-objective minimization and static constraints. We propose GOAL, a conditioned diffusion solver over relational graph representations that enables controllable decision generations by conditioning on human-specified objectives. We introduce a heterogeneous graph encoding in which distinct edge types, corresponding to different classes of constraints, define the message passing structure of the graph neural network, which allows information to propagate selectively according to the ontology of each constraint. GOAL is instantiated and evaluated on three canonical scheduling benchmarks of various constraint complexity: the Flow Shop Problem (FSP), the Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSP), and the Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem (FJSP). Generalization is demonstrated across structurally distinct constraint regimes and problem types without architectural modification. On all three benchmarks, GOAL achieves 100% solution feasibility and near-zero MAPE (below 0.20%) on multiple objectives for problem sizes up to 20 jobs and 60 operations, outperforming NSGA-II and MOEA/D in both solution quality and inference speed by up to 25x.

Many clinical risk scores are deployed as additive rules with nonnegative integer points assigned to relevant binary predictive features. These integer weights not only make the score easier to use in practice but also promote sparsity in the resulting prediction model. Such risk scores are often derived by first fitting a regression model and then rounding the estimated coefficients to the nearest integer after appropriate scaling. This approach is computationally fast but does not guarantee optimality of the resulting score. Alternatively, one may search over all possible integer weights to directly optimize a value function by posing the problem as an integer programming task. However, the associated computational burden can be substantial, especially when the value function is nonconcave or even discontinuous. In this paper, we develop new machine learning algorithms that employ a flexible greedy optimization strategy to learn such additive scoring directly under explicit and sensible optimality objectives. We apply the proposed method to a large electronic health record (EHR) cohort in Epic Cosmos to construct an integer-weighted comorbidity score for measuring the risk of post-discharge mortality. We also conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample operating characteristics.

Green hydrogen plays an essential role in decarbonization, with capacity projected to scale to 560 GW by 2030 (vs. 1.39 GW in 2023) in net-zero settings. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis is one of the most promising technology routes to green hydrogen production, and real-time system health monitoring of PEM electrolyzers is essential for their scalable deployment. In lab settings, performance degradation can be characterized through electrochemical testing protocols by periodic pauses of normal operation. Such interruption is not practical for full-scale stack deployments, limiting system operators' ability to make real-time assessments of state-of-health (SoH). We present a machine learning (ML) framework that performs virtual electrochemical characterization during normal operation. The method uses an encoder-decoder transformer, conditioned on operational data, to reconstruct characterization outputs, focusing here on polarization curves. Inspired by patch-based sequence tokenization, we segment the inputs into patches and encode them to form meaningful tokens, which substantially improves learning efficiency. Across four longitudinal runs, lasting up to 478 hours on different test cells and loading cycles, the model accurately reconstructed polarization curves and achieved 10x reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to a vanilla transformer. This proof-of-concept demonstrates that ML models can enable continuous performance monitoring for PEM electrolyzers and that the encoder captures meaningful latent representations of SoH, opening up opportunities to derive interpretable indicators in future work.

Training general-purpose Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) across diverse datasets is essential for holistic audio understanding, yet it faces significant challenges due to dataset heterogeneity, which often leads to conflicting gradients and slow convergence. Despite its impact, how to explicitly manage this heterogeneity during training remains underexplored, with current practices relying primarily on uniform mixture. In this work, we analyze multi-dataset AudioQA training from a convergence perspective and propose Grouped Sequential Training (GST). GST strategically organizes datasets into affinity-aware groups and introduces them via a progressive scheduling protocol, effectively balancing the stability of parallel training with the efficiency of sequential optimization. To ensure scalability, we develop gradient-based affinity metrics that capture inter-dataset relationships without the prohibitive cost of empirical transferability estimation. Extensive evaluations on 14 AudioQA datasets spanning speech, music, and environmental sounds demonstrate that GST achieves 30–40% faster convergence than standard parallel training while maintaining or even surpassing the performance of mix-all training. Our results provide both theoretical insights and a practical, model-agnostic framework for efficient large-scale ALLM optimization.

Schedule-Free Learning has shown promise as a practical anytime training method for machine learning, showing success across dozens of standard benchmark problems. However, strong performance for LLM training has only been demonstrated at small scales. We identify a number of fixes necessary to scale up Schedule-Free Learning to larger batch sizes and model sizes, and present a learning-rate-free and schedule-free method (ScheduleFree+) for training large language models which greatly outperforms Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedules. We also demonstrate that Schedule-Free Learning is most effective for long duration training, and at 1000 tokens per parameter, it outperforms SOTA schedules by 31%. Schedule-Free Learning provides a theoretical foundation for the use of model averaging and checkpoint merging during pretraining.

System prompts are a central control mechanism in modern AI systems, shaping behavior across conversations, tasks, and user populations. Yet they are difficult to tune when feedback is available only as aggregate metrics rather than per-example labels, failures, or critiques. We study this aggregate feedback setting as sample-constrained black-box optimization over discrete, variable-length text. We introduce ReElicit, a Bayesian optimization framework based on embedding by elicitation. Given a task description, previously evaluated prompts, and scalar scores, an LLM elicits a compact, interpretable feature space and maps prompts into it. Leveraging a probabilistic Gaussian process surrogate, an acquisition function then selects target feature vectors, which the LLM realizes and refines into deployable system prompts. Re-eliciting the feature space as new evaluations arrive lets the representation adapt to the observed prompt-score history. We evaluate the setting using offline benchmark accuracy as a controlled aggregate proxy: the optimizer observes one scalar score per prompt and no per-example labels, errors, or critiques. Across ten system prompt optimization tasks with a 30 total evaluation budget, ReElicit achieves the strongest aggregate performance profile among representative aggregate-only prompt-optimization baselines. These results suggest that LLMs can serve as adaptive semantic representation builders, not only prompt generators, for Bayesian optimization over natural-language artifacts.

Reasoning systems increasingly separate intermediate computation into private and public channels, creating evaluation cases that look similar in transcripts: independent co-derivation, direct access to private content, and indirect influence through public communication. This paper presents a counterfactual likelihood test for measuring influence between private reasoning channels. The method replaces an upstream private block with a length-matched donor block, holds the public token sequence and downstream target fixed, and measures the downstream target's negative-log-likelihood shift. On a 7B role-channel reasoning model used for validation, textual probes are unreliable: raw n-gram overlap overstates leakage, corrected overlap remains noisy, and canary reproduction reports no discrimination. Counterfactual likelihood separates unmasked and masked conditions, while length matching controls a RoPE positional confound. In the hardened masked validation, reverse B-to-A influence is near zero, while A-to-B influence persists through public-speech hidden states. A multi-checkpoint validation across three checkpoints, five seeds, and 13,734 valid directional contrasts replicates this asymmetry. A graph-separation control that blocks private-to-public carrier edges produces bit-identical natural and counterfactual scores across all 13,734 control evaluations, identifying the tested public-channel pathway as the complete carrier of the measured counterfactual signal under the implemented role-visibility mask. The results show that private-channel evaluation should report direct and indirect influence separately, and that counterfactual likelihood probes provide a practical default for measuring these boundaries.

Chess has long served as a canonical testbed for artificial intelligence, but modeling approaches for its central tasks have diverged. Maximizing playing strength, predicting human play, and enabling interpretability are typically solved with disparate architectures, and these designs are often misaligned with the geometry of the domain. This raises the natural question of whether these objectives require separate modeling paradigms, or if there exists a single architecture that supports them simultaneously. We introduce Chessformer, a unified architecture that advances the state of the art on all three central goals in chess modeling. Chessformer is an encoder-only transformer that represents board squares as tokens, augments self-attention with a novel dynamic positional encoding called Geometric Attention Bias (GAB) that adapts to domain-specific geometry, and predicts actions with an attention-based source-destination policy head. We evaluate Chessformer on each front. First, we develop \maiathree, a family of models for human move prediction that reaches 57.1% move-matching accuracy, significantly surpassing the previous state of the art with fewer than a quarter of the parameters. Second, we integrate Chessformer into Leela Chess Zero, a leading open-source engine, adding over 100 Elo of playing strength and resulting in tournament victories over Stockfish in major computer chess competitions. Third, we show that Chessformer's square-token design makes attention patterns and activations directly attributable to board squares, enabling granular interpretability analyses that prior architectures do not naturally support. More broadly, our results demonstrate that aligning a model's tokenization, positional encoding, and output design with the underlying structure of a domain can yield simultaneous gains in performance, human compatibility, and interpretability.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL), a neural network sequentially learns from a non-stationary data stream in a single-pass with access only to a limited memory replay buffer. This contrasts sharply with off-line continual learning where training is multiple epoch dependent on large datasets. The main challenge faced by OCL is to overcome catastrophic forgetting of past tasks (stability) while learning new ones efficiently (plasticity). Existing methods counter forgetting via replay-based rehearsal, output level distillation, fixed regularization, or meta-learning on the current data. However, these methods have limitations: rehearsal introduces a stored sample bias; distillation operates on output-distributions without modulating parameter updates; fixed-regularization penalizes parameters irrespective of sensitivity; stream-only meta-learning lacks a feedback controlled parameter update. We propose Meta-Adaptive Network Gradient Optimization (MANGO), an OCL framework that balances stability-plasticity via gradient-gating and meta-learned regularization. Gradient-gating scales parameter updates based on sensitivity, preventing destructive updates. Meta-learned regularization adapts stability coefficients, evaluating the effect of parameter update on replay. In MANGO, replay acts as both a training signal and a forgetting evaluator. We evaluated our method on three standard OCL benchmark datasets. MANGO outperforms strong baselines, achieving state-of-the-art results with consistent performance across replay sizes. In domain incremental learning on CLEAR-10 and class incremental learning on CIFAR-100 and Tiny-ImageNet, it achieves highest accuracy among all baselines and achieves positive Backward Transfer, overcoming forgetting on CLEAR-10.

Inferring unknown initial states in shock-dominated compressible flows from sparse and noisy measurements is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem due to nonlinear wave interactions and limited sensing. In this work, we develop a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for efficient Bayesian initial-state inversion with uncertainty quantification. The framework combines a convolutional autoencoder with a learned latent-space forward operator. The autoencoder compresses high-dimensional flow fields into a compact nonlinear latent representation, while the forward operator predicts final-time latent states from encoded initial conditions. This AE-ROM surrogate enables rapid forward evaluations and is embedded within a No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) for posterior exploration. The framework is demonstrated using 500 high-fidelity Sod shock tube simulations generated through Latin hypercube sampling and solved using a fifth-order WENO scheme. The inverse problem seeks to recover unknown left and right density and pressure states from sparse noisy observations of final-time density and pressure fields. Results show that the AE-ROM accurately reconstructs key shock-tube structures, including the rarefaction wave, contact discontinuity, and shock front. A latent dimension of 32 provides an effective balance between reconstruction accuracy and reduced-space compactness, while 250 training simulations are sufficient for accurate reconstruction. Increasing observation density significantly contracts posterior uncertainty, reducing the mean posterior standard deviation by approximately 78% for density and 76% for pressure. Overall, the proposed framework provides a computationally efficient and uncertainty-aware approach for inverse analysis of shock-dominated flows, with potential extensions to multidimensional compressible-flow and digital-twin applications.

Representations on the Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) manifold have garnered significant attention across different applications. In contrast, the manifold of full-rank correlation matrices, a normalized alternative to SPD matrices, remains largely underexplored. This paper introduces Riemannian networks over the correlation manifold, leveraging five recently developed correlation geometries. We systematically extend basic layers, including Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), Fully Connected (FC), and convolutional layers, to these geometries. Besides, we present methods for accurate backpropagation for two correlation geometries. Experiments comparing our approach against existing SPD and Grassmannian networks demonstrate its effectiveness.

Inspired by long-standing open problems in algebraic combinatorics, we show that modern machine learning can meaningfully contribute to verifiable mathematical discoveries. In particular, we focus on the construction of simple mathematical functions under exact distributional constraints, a setting we formalize as Simple Learning Under Rigid Proportions (SLURP). We tackle this problem by introducing two methods: MapSeek-Functional, which models the desired function alternating pseudo-labeling and supervised training steps; and MapSeek-Symbolic, designed to directly produce symbolic formulas. We successfully apply both methods to a research problem in algebraic combinatorics, discovering a new combinatorial interpretation of the $q,t$-Narayana polynomials arising from representation theory. To our knowledge, this is the first such interpretation based on noncrossing partitions. Using one discovered statistic, we find a combinatorial proof of the symmetry of these polynomials in a previously unsolved case. To streamline verification and reproducibility, we release all code, including a formalization of all the mathematical discoveries of this paper in Lean 4.

Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) is a powerful technique for solving large-scale Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), particularly those with decomposable structures, such as vehicle routing or unit commitment problems. By relaxing the coupling constraints, LR enables parallel subproblem solving and often yields tighter dual bounds than standard linear programming relaxations, which is crucial for efficient branch-and-bound pruning. While recent empirical work has shown promising results using machine learning to predict these multipliers, a theoretical understanding of such methods remains an open question. In this work, we bridge this gap by analyzing the problem of learning LR through the lens of Data-driven Algorithm Design, i.e., a statistical learning problem over a distribution of problem instances. Our contributions are as follows: first, we derive a generalization bound of $\mathcal{O}(s^{1.5}/\sqrt{N})$ for the learned multipliers, where $s$ is the number of coupling constraints and $N$ is the sample size. Second, we provide a minimax lower-bound of $\Omega(s/\sqrt{N})$, proving that a linear dependency is unavoidable. Third, we constructively close this theoretical gap by proving that Stochastic Gradient Ascent (SGA) with averaging achieves the minimax optimal rate $\Theta(s/\sqrt{N})$. Finally, we extend our framework to the learning-to-warm-start setting, proving that it achieves a fast, minimax-optimal rate of $\Theta(s/N)$ and establishing a theoretical advantage over direct multiplier prediction.

Generating stable molecular conformations typically forces a tradeoff between the physical realism of energy-based relaxation and the sampling efficiency of data-driven generative models. While machine learning force fields (MLFFs) can sample stable conformations by relaxing molecular geometries according to physical forces, they require costly ab-initio training data. Conversely, diffusion models (DMs) learn from equilibrium data alone but are dependent on noise schedules and time-step conditioning. In this work, we propose generative pseudo-force fields (GPFFs) to bridge these paradigms by training an MLFF on a quadratic pseudo-potential energy surface relative to reference equilibrium structures. Because no ab-initio calculations are required for the perturbed geometries, non-equilibrium training data can be generated on the fly by perturbing the equilibria with Gaussian noise. We show that GPFFs constitute a time-step-agnostic variant of variance exploding DMs: the score comes from the predicted pseudo-forces but because force magnitudes implicitly encode the noise level, no time-step conditioning is needed. Our GPFF can hence be used as a drop-in replacement in standard diffusion sampling (ancestral, Heun) but also facilitates more efficient, adaptive variants and an MLFF inspired direct denoising scheme. Our proposed sampling algorithms support arbitrary structural priors and geometric constraints. On QM9, GPFF has 100 % validity at 256 neural function evaluations (NFE) and over 50 % at just 6 NFE, outperforming diffusion baselines across all samplers. Combined with custom priors, we showcase the fast and accurate generation process of our method in a molecular editor for a drug design setting, where a molecule is generated in real time.

Linear attention has recently gained significant attention for long-context inference due to its constant decoding cost with respect to context length. However, existing serving systems typically serve linear attention by recurrently computing and updating a large linear attention state in every decoding step. Since the state is much larger than the per-token key and value, recurrent decoding incurs substantial memory access and becomes inefficient for serving linear attention. In this paper, we propose KVBuffer, an IO-aware serving mechanism for linear attention. By buffering recent keys and values, KVBuffer enables serving systems to compute linear attention outputs in more flexible and memory-efficient ways. For decoding, KVBuffer enables chunkwise computation, which reduces average memory access and decoding latency by deferring state updates and applying them in batch. For speculative decoding, KVBuffer verifies draft tokens in parallel and avoids storing temporary states. For short contexts, KVBuffer computes attention outputs directly from buffered keys and values, without creating or updating the linear attention state. We implement KVBuffer in SGLang for Qwen3.5 and Nemotron-3 series models. Our evaluations show that KVBuffer can speedup batch decoding by up to 1.47x and increase the maximum number of serving requests by 5x for speculative decoding when verifying four draft tokens.

The rapid advancement of autonomous driving (AD) technologies has outpaced the development of robust safety evaluation methods. Conventional testing relies on exposing AD systems to vast numbers of real-world traffic scenes – a brute-force approach that is prohibitively expensive and statistically ineffective at capturing the rare, safety-critical edge cases essential for validating real-world robustness. To address this fundamental limitation, we introduce STRELGen, a scalable framework for the targeted generation of safety-critical driving scenarios. STRELGen synergistically combines a multi-agent trajectory-generation diffusion model (DM) with Spatio-Temporal Logic (STREL) specifications that encode complex safety and realism properties through a highly interpretable formalism. Crucially, monitoring satisfaction levels of these specifications is differentiable, enabling gradient-based search. At inference time, we optimize directly over the DM latent space to maximize STREL formula satisfaction. The result is efficient generation of highly plausible yet safety-critical multi-agent scenarios that lie within the learned data distribution. STRELGen thus provides a flexible, interpretable, and powerful tool for stress-testing autonomous driving systems, moving beyond the limitations of brute-force data collection.

Supervised open-loop training has been widely adopted for training traffic simulation models; however, it fails to capture the inherently dynamic, multi-agent interactions common in complex driving scenarios. We introduce RLFTSim, a reinforcement-learning-based fine-tuning framework that enhances scenario realism by aligning simulator rollouts with real-world data distributions and provides a method for distilling goal-conditioned controllability in scenario generation. We instantiate RLFTSim on top of a pre-trained simulation model, design a reward that balances fidelity and controllability, and perform comprehensive experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset. Our results show improvements in realism, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Compared with other heuristic search-based fine-tuning methods, RLFTSim requires significantly fewer samples due to a proposed low-variance and dense reward signal, and it directly addresses the realism alignment issue by design. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for distilling traffic simulation controllability through goal conditioning. The project page is available at https://ehsan-ami.github.io/rlftsim.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) is a widely used parameter-efficient fine-tuning method, yet its learned correction is static: the same low-rank update is applied to every input. This input-agnostic approach creates an inevitable compromise between adapting to the fine-tuning distribution and preserving pre-trained behavior on inputs outside that distribution, contributing to catastrophic forgetting. We introduce DISeL (Dynamic Input-Sensitive LoRA), which augments LoRA modules with lightweight input-dependent gates over individual rank-one components. The gating mechanism is designed to preserve the pre-trained model's behavior by default, while training learns to activate selected components that reduce the fine-tuning loss. DISeL adds only a small number of parameters and preserves the low-rank structure. Across RoBERTa on GLUE, and Llama and Mistral models fine-tuned for mathematical reasoning and code generation, DISeL reduces forgetting relative to LoRA and related variants while maintaining competitive fine-tuning accuracy. In addition, the learned gate activations provide an interpretable diagnostic view of which layers and rank components are most activated during fine-tuning, giving insight into where task-specific adaptation is concentrated. Code available at https://github.com/alizindari/DISeL .

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a realized conformal threshold. In the continuous i.i.d. setting this law is exactly $Beta(k,n+1-k)$, so the usual marginal guarantee corresponds to its mean. We take this beta law as a finite-sample reference object and quantify departures from it using Wasserstein distances on $[0,1]$. The framework yields direct bounds on marginal coverage gaps and on bad-calibration probabilities, and separates different sources of non-i.i.d. behavior according to how they deform the beta reference: test-side shift acts through a transport map on the coverage scale, while calibration dependence changes the order-statistic law itself. We instantiate the framework in scale-shift, clustered, and stationary mixing settings, where the induced deformations can be characterized explicitly or through Berry-Esseen approximations. Simulations on dependent processes confirm that the first-order approximation tracks the empirical Wasserstein distance even at moderate sample sizes.

Deep Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are essential for capturing complex dependencies in graph-structured data. However, scaling GNNs to depth remains challenging, as stacking layers leads to representation collapse and diminishing sensitivity due to repeated aggregation. While Neural Sheaf Diffusion (NSD) provides strong theoretical guarantees against such collapse, these guarantees do not translate to practice: as depth increases, the disagreement signal of the sheaf Laplacian vanishes, limiting the contribution of deeper layers. We identify mechanisms that hinder NSD effectiveness at depth and propose Deep Neural Sheaf Diffusion (DNSD), which replaces the sheaf Laplacian with a sheaf adjacency operator to maintain informative signals across layers. This is complemented by normalization, odd nonlinearities, and gating. To provide a principled explanation of the expected performance improvement, we contrast sheaf diffusion to graph attention mechanisms, highlighting that DNSD replaces scalar attention scores with matrix-valued edge functions and normalizes node representations rather than attention scores. We demonstrate empirically that DNSD effectively utilizes deep aggregation in graph tasks, outperforming GNN and NSD baselines with up to 30pp accuracy on synthetic long-range datasets, and consistently outperforming them on real-world benchmarks. These results position sheaf-based architectures as a promising building block for graph foundation models by supporting effective deep architectures.

Fine-tuning adapts a pre-trained model to downstream tasks using a small amount of labeled data. Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is an efficient fine-tuning method that reduces memory and computation costs while often achieving performance close to full fine-tuning. Despite its widespread use, the theoretical behavior of LoRA is not yet well understood. In this paper, we study LoRA in a simple linear regression setting and compare its excess risk with that of full fine-tuning. Our analysis identifies regimes in which LoRA achieves lower excess risk than full fine-tuning in both overdetermined and underdetermined settings. Specifically, our theory predicts that LoRA can outperform full fine-tuning when the difference between the pretraining and the downstream tasks is effectively low-rank. We further show how the choice of LoRA rank affects generalization performance, explaining why using a very small rank can improve test accuracy in certain settings, even though it limits model expressivity. Finally, we support our theoretical results with experiments on practical tasks, suggesting that the identified tradeoffs and insights extend beyond linear regression.

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

Modern language-model training is increasingly exposed to instability, degraded runs, and wasted compute, especially under aggressive learning-rate, scale, and runtime-stress conditions. This paper introduces Learn-by-Wire Guard (LBW-Guard), a bounded autonomous training-control governance layer that operates above AdamW. Rather than replacing the optimizer update rule, LBW-Guard observes training telemetry, interprets instability-sensitive regimes, and applies bounded control to optimizer execution while preserving fixed training objectives. We evaluate LBW-Guard in a Qwen2.5-centered stress-and-robustness suite using WikiText-103, with Qwen2.5-7B as the empirical anchor, model-size comparisons against Qwen2.5-3B and Qwen2.5-14B, learning-rate stress tests, gradient-clipping baselines, and a no-LoRA TinyLlama-1B full-parameter sanity check. In the 7B reference setting, LBW-Guard reduces final perplexity from 13.21 to 10.74, an 18.7% improvement, while reducing end-to-end time from 392.54s to 357.02s, a 1.10x speedup. Under stronger learning-rate stress, AdamW degrades to 1885.24 final perplexity at LR=3e-3 and 659.76 at LR=1e-3, whereas LBW-Guard remains trainable at 11.57 and 10.33, respectively. Gradient-clipping baselines do not reproduce this effect. These results support a scoped systems conclusion that stability-sensitive LLM training can benefit from a governance plane above the optimizer. LBW-Guard provides evidence that bounded runtime control can preserve productive compute under stress while remaining distinct from optimizer replacement and local gradient suppression.

Accurately forecasting human trajectories from an egocentric perspective plays a central role in applications such as humanoid robotics, wearable sensing systems, and assistive navigation. However, progress in this direction remains limited due to the scarcity of egocentric trajectory datasets collected in real-world environments. Addressing this need, we introduce EgoTraj, an egocentric multimodal open dataset recorded using Meta Quest Pro (MQPro). EgoTraj contains 75 sequences of human navigation collected from multiple MQPro wearers in real-world urban environments. Each recording provides synchronized RGB video along with ground-truth data, including continuous time-synchronized 6-degree-of-freedom head poses, per-frame 3D eye gaze vectors, scene annotations. To the best of our knowledge, EgoTraj differs from typical egocentric trajectory datasets by capturing long-horizon, self-directed navigation across diverse urban routes with broad participant diversity. To demonstrate the potential of the dataset, we benchmark several state-of-the-art methods for egocentric trajectory prediction and conduct ablation studies to analyze the contributions of gaze, scene, and motion cues. The results highlight the utility of EgoTraj for AR-based perception, navigation, and assistive systems. The EgoTraj dataset, code, and EgoViz Dashboard are publicly available at https://github.com/yehiahmad/EgoTraj.

Muon and related normalized optimizers decouple the choice of update direction from the choice of step scale, but their practical performance remains sensitive to the scale of the normalized step. We study adaptive scaling rules for Muon in general norm geometries and develop three complementary algorithms. For smooth non-convex objectives, we introduce Distance-Adaptive Muon, whose trust-region radius is set from the radius explored by the trajectory, and prove a stationarity guarantee under a bounded-trajectory assumption. We then turn to star-convex objectives, a tractable model of the favorable global geometry often used to reason about the empirical loss landscapes of deep neural networks, where objective-gap guarantees are possible. In this setting, we first introduce Scale-Calibrated Muon, which keeps Muon's exponential moving average but sets the step length from a local descent certificate computed from the current gradient and momentum. For this method, we prove a last-iterate O(1/T) objective-gap bound under a bounded initial sublevel-set assumption, where the corresponding radius parameter appears only in the analysis and not in the algorithm. Finally, we develop Distance-Free Muon, a recentered trust-region method that uses a scalar distance certificate and a majorized one-dimensional search to select the trust-region radius without requiring the unknown distance from the initialization to a global minimizer. Experiments on Transformer language modeling (GPT-124M/WikiText-103) and image classification (ViT-Tiny/CIFAR-100) show that the proposed adaptive scaling rules reduce sensitivity to manual scale tuning and match or improve tuned fixed-scale Muon baselines under the tested budgets.

Task vector composition has emerged as a promising paradigm for editing pre-trained models, enabling model merging through addition and unlearning through subtraction. Fine-tuning in the tangent space of a pre-trained model (linear fine-tuning) has proven effective, as it produces task vectors that are naturally disentangled and resistant to interference. However, linearized models suffer from limited expressivity during training and incur higher computational costs at inference time, which restrict their practical applicability. In this work, we bridge the gap between linear and standard non-linear fine-tuning. We show that linearity with respect to weight perturbations, a property defined in parameter space, can be enforced through constraints in activation space during training. Concretely, we distill hidden representations from a curvature-regularized linearized teacher into a non-linear student trained via conventional fine-tuning. We find that the resulting model inherits key properties of linearized models for task arithmetic, enabling effective composition of task vectors and achieving strong performance across vision and language benchmarks without incurring any inference-time overhead.

We propose Tabular Q-Learning (TabQL), a reinforcement learning framework that replaces the conventional parametric Q-network in Deep Q-Learning (DQN) with a tabular foundation model endowed with in-context learning capabilities. The key idea is to represent Q-values through a sequence-to-sequence foundation model operating over a tabularized representation of state-action-Q-value tuples, enabling rapid adaptation from limited online interaction by conditioning on recent experience. TabQL departs from classical DQN by leveraging (i) zero- or few-shot Q-value inference via in-context updates, and (ii) a warm-up phase using standard DQN to bootstrap high-quality context. Particularly, to enhance the context quality, new transitions are generated by executing actions output by TabQL with predicted Q values from DQN. We formalize TabQL, analyze its convergence and sample complexity under mild assumptions, and show that TabQL interpolates between vanilla Q-learning and DQN with in-context learning. Our analysis demonstrates that TabQL achieves improved efficiency compared to DQN by amortizing Bellman updates through in-context learning. Extensive numerical experiments with several benchmarks showcase the effectiveness and efficacy of the proposed TabQL.

What determines the quality of a tabular foundation model? Unlike language or vision, tabular foundation models acquire their inductive biases almost entirely from synthetic pretraining distributions, yet the design of these distributions remains poorly understood. Standard synthetic priors are too well-behaved: they omit the irregularities and failure modes that determine deployment robustness. We introduce O'Prior, a compositional realism prior built around four coupled components: a hierarchical SCM meta-generator spanning diverse functional families; a modular realism engine covering heterogeneous marginals, missingness, and target transforms; an explicit stress module injecting confounding and support-query mismatch; and a curriculum-governed, leakage-safe generation protocol. To isolate prior design as the scientific variable, we hold architecture, optimizer, and compute budget fixed and vary only the synthetic task distribution. O'Prior yields consistent and substantial improvements in downstream accuracy and robustness across real tabular benchmarks, with gains concentrated in regimes characterized by distributional irregularities. Ablations confirm that mechanism diversity, realism composition, and shift-aware stress each contribute independently, their effects are not interchangeable. These results establish synthetic prior construction as a first-order and largely overlooked determinant of tabular foundation model quality.