Papers

Prediction markets are markets for trading claims on universal future events (e.g., presidential elections). Fueled by a meteoric surge with over \$50 billion trading volume, they have emerged as a promising forecasting mechanism, where their prices provide continuously updated signals of collective beliefs. In decentralized platforms (e.g., Polymarket), the prediction market lifecycle include six stages: market creation, token registration, trading, oracle interaction, dispute, and final settlement. However, comprehensively tracking this complete pipeline remains a major challenge, as the underlying data are severely fragmented across heterogeneous on-chain smart contracts and off-chain sources. To fill this critical gap, we present the first continuously synchronized dataset suite for the full-lifecycle of decentralized prediction markets. To achieve large-scale cross-source integration, incomplete linkage, and continuous synchronization, we build a unified relational data system that integrates three canonical layers: i) market metadata, ii) fill-level trading records, iii) oracle-resolution events, through identifier resolution, on-chain recovery, and incremental updates. The resulting dataset spans from October 2020 to update-to-date and comprise more than 3.29 million market records, over 1.90 billion order execution records, and nearly 21 million oracle events. We describe the data model, collection pipeline, and consistency mechanisms that make the datasets reproducible and extensible. We further demonstrate its utility for multiple communities through NBA outcome calibration for sport traders, CPI expectation reconstruction for economists, and oracle-risk analysis for blockchain researchers. A public website with dataset access, interactive visualizations, and lightweight LLM-assisted exploration tools are publicly available at https://www.polymonitor.club.

AI research often emphasizes model design and algorithmic performance, while deployment and inference remain comparatively underexplored despite being critical for real-world use. This study addresses that gap by investigating the performance and optimization of a BentoML-based AI inference system for scalable model serving developed in collaboration with graphworks.ai. The evaluation first establishes baseline performance under three realistic workload scenarios. To ensure a fair and reproducible assessment, a pre-trained RoBERTa sentiment analysis model is used throughout the experiments. The system is subjected to traffic patterns following gamma and exponential distributions in order to emulate real-world usage conditions, including steady, bursty, and high-intensity workloads. Key performance metrics, such as latency percentiles and throughput, are collected and analyzed to identify bottlenecks in the inference pipeline. Based on the baseline results, optimization strategies are introduced at multiple levels of the serving stack to improve efficiency and scalability. The optimized system is then reevaluated under the same workload conditions, and the results are compared with the baseline using statistical analysis to quantify the impact of the applied improvements. The findings demonstrate practical strategies for achieving efficient and scalable AI inference with BentoML. The study examines how latency and throughput scale under varying workloads, how optimizations at the runtime, service, and deployment levels affect response time, and how deployment in a single-node K3s cluster influences resilience during disruptions.

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

Fault location in distribution grids is critical for reliability and minimizing outage durations. Yet, it remains challenging due to partial observability, given sparse measurement infrastructure. Recent works show promising results by combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for spatio-temporal learning. Still, many modern GNN architectures remain untested for this grid application, while existing GNN solutions have not explored GNN topology definitions beyond simply adopting the full grid topology to construct the GNN graph. We address these gaps by (i) systematically comparing a newly proposed graph-forming strategy (measured-only) to the traditional full-topology approach, and (ii) introducing STGNN (Spatio-temporal GNN) models based on GraphSAGE and an improved Graph Attention (GATv2), for distribution grid fault location; (iii) benchmarking them against state-of-the-art STGNN and RNN baselines on the IEEE 123-bus feeder. In our experiments, all evaluated STGNN variants achieve high performance and consistently outperform a pure RNN baseline, with improvements up to 11 percentage points F1. Among STGNN models, the newly explored RGATv2 and RGSAGE achieve only marginally higher F1 scores. Still, STGNNs demonstrate superior stability, with tight confidence intervals (within +/- 1.4%) compared to the RNN baseline (up to +/- 7.5%) across different experiment runs. Finally, our proposed reduced GNN topology (measured-only) shows clear benefits in both (i) model training time (6-fold reduction) and (ii) model performance (up to 11 points F1). This suggests that measured-only graphs offer a more practical, efficient, and robust framework for partially observable distribution grids.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at function-level code generation, project-level tasks such as generating functional and visually aesthetic multi-page websites remain highly challenging. Existing works are often limited to single-page static websites, while agentic frameworks typically rely on multi-turn execution with proprietary models, leading to substantial token costs, high latency, and brittle integration. Training a small LLM end-to-end with reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising alternative, yet it faces a critical bottleneck in designing reliable and computationally feasible rewards for website generation. Unlike single-file coding tasks that can be verified by unit tests, website generation requires evaluating inherently subjective aesthetics, cross-page interactions, and functional correctness. To this end, we propose WebGen-R1, an end-to-end RL framework tailored for project-level website generation. We first introduce a scaffold-driven structured generation paradigm that constrains the large open-ended action space and preserves architectural integrity. We then design a novel cascaded multimodal reward that seamlessly couples structural guarantees with execution-grounded functional feedback and vision-based aesthetic supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our WebGen-R1 substantially transforms a 7B base model from generating nearly nonfunctional websites into producing deployable, aesthetically aligned multi-page websites. Remarkably, our WebGen-R1 not only consistently outperforms heavily scaled open-source models (up to 72B), but also rivals the state-of-the-art DeepSeek-R1 (671B) in functional success, while substantially exceeding it in valid rendering and aesthetic alignment. These results position WebGen-R1 as a viable path for scaling small open models from function-level code generation to project-level web application generation.

Quality-Diversity (QD) algorithms excel at discovering diverse repertoires of skills, but are hindered by poor sample efficiency and often require tens of millions of environment steps to solve complex locomotion tasks. Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning (RL) have shown that high Update-to-Data (UTD) ratios accelerate Actor-Critic learning. While effective, standard high-UTD algorithms typically utilise target networks to stabilise training. This requirement introduces a significant computational bottleneck, rendering them impractical for resource-intensive Quality-Diversity (QD) tasks where sample efficiency and rapid population adaptation are critical. In this paper, we introduce QDHUAC, a sample-efficient, target-free and distributional QD-RL algorithm that provides dense and low-variance gradient signals, which enables high-UTD training for Dominated Novelty Search whilst requiring an order of magnitude fewer environment steps. We demonstrate that our method enables stable training at high UTD ratios, achieving competitive coverage and fitness on high-dimensional Brax environments with an order of magnitude fewer samples than baselines. Our results suggest that combining target-free distributional critics with dominance-based selection is a key enabler for the next generation of sample-efficient evolutionary RL algorithms.

Automated Market Makers (AMMs), as a core infrastructure of decentralized finance (DeFi), uniquely drive on-chain asset pricing through a deterministic reserve ratio mechanism. Unlike traditional markets, AMM price dynamics is triggered largely by on-chain events (e.g., swap) that change the reserve ratio, rather than by continuous responses to off-chain information. This makes event-level analysis crucial for understanding price formation mechanisms in AMMs. However, existing research generally neglects the micro-structural dynamics at the AMMs level, lacking both a comprehensive dataset covering multiple protocols with fine-grained event classification and an effective framework for event-aware modeling. To fill this gap, we construct a dataset containing 8.9 million on-chain event records from four representative AMMs protocols: Pendle, Uniswap v3, Aave and Morpho, with precise annotations of transaction type and block height timestamps. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty Weighted Mean Squared Error (UWM) loss function, which incorporates the block interval regression term into the traditional Time-Point Process (TPP) objective function by weighting the uncertainty with homoscedasticity. Extensive experiments on eight advanced TPP architectures demonstrate that this loss function reduces the time prediction error by an average of 56.41% while maintaining the accuracy of event type prediction, establishing a robust benchmark for event-aware prediction in the AMMs ecosystem. This work provides the necessary data foundation and methodological framework for modeling the discreteness and event-driven characteristics of on-chain price discovery. All datasets and source code are publicly available. https://github.com/yosen-king/Deep-AMM-Events

We report the first systematic evidence of hallucination in AI models of fluid dynamics, demonstrated in the canonical problem of hydrodynamically unstable transport known as viscous fingering. AI-based modeling of flow with instabilities remains challenging because rapidly evolving, multiscale fingering patterns are difficult to resolve accurately. We identify solutions that appear visually realistic yet are physically implausible, analogous to hallucinations in large language models. These hallucinations manifest as spurious fluid interfaces and reverse diffusion that violate conservation laws. We show that their origin lies in the spectral bias of AI models, which becomes dominant at high flow rates and viscosity contrasts. Guided by this insight, we introduce DeepFingers, a new framework for AI-driven fluid dynamics that enforces balanced learning across the full spectrum of spatial modes by combining the Fourier Neural Operator with a Deep Operator Network to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of viscous fingers. By conditioning on both time and viscosity contrast, DeepFingers learns mappings between successive concentration fields across regimes. The framework accurately captures tip splitting, finger merging, and channel formation while preserving global metrics of mixing. The results open a new research direction to investigate fundamental limitations in AI models of physical systems.

Forecasting the life-cycle trajectory of a newly launched product is important for launch planning, resource allocation, and early risk assessment. This task is especially difficult in the pre-launch and early post-launch phases, when product-specific outcome history is limited or unavailable, creating a cold-start problem. In these phases, firms must make decisions before demand patterns become reliably observable, while early signals are often sparse, noisy, and unstable We propose the Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF), a conditional generative framework for forecasting new-product life-cycle trajectories under cold start. CDLF combines three sources of information: static descriptors, reference trajectories from similar products, and newly arriving observations when available. Here, static descriptors refer to structured pre-launch characteristics of the product, such as category, price tier, brand or organization identity, scale, and access conditions. This structure allows the model to condition forecasts on relevant product context and to update them adaptively over time without retraining, yielding flexible multi-modal predictive distributions under extreme data scarcity. The method satisfies consistency with a horizon-uniform distributional error bound for recursive generation. Across studies on Intel microprocessor stock keeping unit (SKU) life cycles and the platform-mediated adoption of open large language model repositories, CDLF delivers more accurate point forecasts and higher-quality probabilistic forecasts than classical diffusion models, Bayesian updating approaches, and other state-of-the-art machine-learning baselines.

Large language models (LLMs), trained on vast datasets, encode extensive real-world knowledge within their parameters, yet their black-box nature obscures the mechanisms and extent of this encoding. Surrogate modeling, which uses simplified models to approximate complex systems, can offer a path toward better interpretability of black-box models. We propose a surrogate modeling framework that quantitatively explains LLM-encoded knowledge. For a specific hypothesis derived from domain knowledge, this framework approximates the latent LLM knowledge space using observable elements (input-output pairs) through extensive prompting across a comprehensive range of simulated scenarios. Through proof-of-concept experiments in medical predictions, we demonstrate our framework's effectiveness in revealing the extent to which LLMs "perceive" each input variable in relation to the output. Particularly, given concerns that LLMs may perpetuate inaccuracies and societal biases embedded in their training data, our experiments using this framework quantitatively revealed both associations that contradict established medical knowledge and the persistence of scientifically refuted racial assumptions within LLM-encoded knowledge. By disclosing these issues, our framework can act as a red-flag indicator to support the safe and reliable application of these models.

Function calling empowers large language models (LLMs) to interface with external tools, yet existing RL-based approaches suffer from misalignment between reasoning processes and tool-call decisions. We propose R2IF, a reasoning-aware RL framework for interpretable function calling, adopting a composite reward integrating format/correctness constraints, Chain-of-Thought Effectiveness Reward (CER), and Specification-Modification-Value (SMV) reward, optimized via GRPO. Experiments on BFCL/ACEBench show R2IF outperforms baselines by up to 34.62% (Llama3.2-3B on BFCL) with positive Average CoT Effectiveness (0.05 for Llama3.2-3B), enhancing both function-calling accuracy and interpretability for reliable tool-augmented LLM deployment.

This technical note provides a first-order formalisation of the logit shift and fact-margin change induced by Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Using a first-order Fréchet approximation around the base model trajectory, we show that the multi-layer LoRA effect can be decomposed into a linear summation of layerwise contributions and a higher-order remainder term representing inter-layer coupling.

Graph neural networks face two fundamental challenges rooted in the linear structure of Euclidean vector spaces: (1) Current architectures represent geometry through vectors (directions, gradients), yet many tasks require matrix-valued representations that capture relationships between directions-such as how atomic orientations covary in a molecule. These second-order representations are naturally captured by points on the symmetric positive definite matrices (SPD) manifold; (2) Standard message passing applies shared transformations across edges. Sheaf neural networks address this via edge-specific transformations, but existing formulations remain confined to vector spaces and therefore cannot propagate matrix-valued features. We address both challenges by developing the first sheaf neural network operates natively on the SPD manifold. Our key insight is that the SPD manifold admits a Lie group structure, enabling well-posed analogs of sheaf operators without projecting to Euclidean space. Theoretically, we prove that SPD-valued sheaves are strictly more expressive than Euclidean sheaves: they admit consistent configurations (global sections) that vector-valued sheaves cannot represent, directly translating to richer learned representations. Empirically, our sheaf convolution transforms effectively rank-1 directional inputs into full-rank matrices encoding local geometric structure. Our dual-stream architecture achieves SOTA on 6/7 MoleculeNet benchmarks, with the sheaf framework providing consistent depth robustness.

We consider the problem of sampling from a probability distribution $\pi$. It is well known that this can be written as an optimisation problem over the space of probability distributions in which we aim to minimise the Kullback–Leibler divergence from $\pi$. We consider the effect of replacing $\pi$ with a sequence of moving targets $(\pi_t)_{t\ge0}$ defined via geometric tempering on the Wasserstein and Fisher–Rao gradient flows. We show that convergence occurs exponentially in continuous time, providing novel bounds in both cases. We also consider popular time discretisations and explore their convergence properties. We show that in the Fisher–Rao case, replacing the target distribution with a geometric mixture of initial and target distribution never leads to a convergence speed up both in continuous time and in discrete time. Finally, we explore the gradient flow structure of tempered dynamics and derive novel adaptive tempering schedules.

Survival analysis is a widely used statistical framework for modeling time-to-event data under censoring. Classical methods, such as the Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model, offer a semiparametric approach to estimating the effects of covariates on the hazard function. Despite its importance, survival analysis has been largely unexplored in online settings, particularly within the bandit framework, where decisions must be made sequentially to optimize treatments as new data arrive over time. In this work, we take an initial step toward integrating survival analysis into a purely online learning setting under the Cox PH model, addressing key challenges including staggered entry, delayed feedback, and right censoring. We adapt three canonical bandit algorithms to balance exploration and exploitation, with theoretical guarantees of sublinear regret bounds. Extensive simulations and semi-real experiments using SEER cancer data demonstrate that our approach enables rapid and effective learning of near-optimal treatment policies.

The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.

Flight diversions are rare but high-impact events in aviation, making their reliable prediction vital for both safety and operational efficiency. However, their scarcity in historical records impedes the training of machine learning models used to predict them. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a generative augmentation framework for imbalanced aviation tabular records. The principal contribution lies in the design of a composite optimisation objective specifically tailored to flight data, which integrates four complementary quality dimensions into a single score used to guide automated hyperparameter search via the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) algorithm: realism, statistical similarity, fidelity, and predictive utility. These dimensions were selected and defined to reflect the operational and statistical requirements specific to aviation records, and were complemented by two descriptive evaluation dimensions, diversity and operational validity, forming a six-stage assessment framework. The composite objective was then used to tune three deep generative models, namely Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), and CopulaGAN, with Gaussian Copula (GC) serving as a statistical baseline. Results show that optimised models substantially outperform their default counterparts across all six assessment dimensions, and that augmentation with the resulting synthetic data improves diversion prediction compared to training on real data alone. These findings demonstrate that domain-adapted multi-objective optimisation is an effective strategy for generative augmentation of rare events in aviation, with applicability to other imbalanced tabular prediction tasks.

The analysis of neural representation has become an integral part of research aiming to better understand the inner workings of neural networks. While there are many different approaches to investigate neural representations, an important line of research has focused on doing so through the lens of intrinsic dimensions (IDs). Although this perspective has provided valuable insights and stimulated substantial follow-up research, important limitations of this approach have remained largely unaddressed. In this paper, we highlight a crucial discrepancy between theory and practice of IDs in neural representations, theoretically and empirically showing that common ID estimators are, in fact, not tracking the true underlying ID of the representation. We contrast this negative result with an investigation of the underlying factors that may drive commonly reported ID-related results on neural representation in the literature. Building on these insights, we offer a new perspective on ID estimation in neural representations.

Virtual cell modeling predicts molecular state changes under genetic perturbations in silico, which is essential for biological mechanism studies. However, existing approaches suffer from unconstrained reasoning, uninterpretable predictions, and retrieval signals that are weakly aligned with regulatory topology. To address these limitations, we propose AROMA, an Augmented Reasoning Over a Multimodal Architecture for virtual cell genetic perturbation modeling. AROMA integrates textual evidence, graph-topology information, and protein sequence features to model perturbation-target dependencies, and is trained with a two-stage optimization strategy to yield predictions that are both accurate and interpretable. We also construct two knowledge graphs and a perturbation reasoning dataset, PerturbReason, containing more than 498k samples, as reusable resources for the virtual cell domain. Experiments show that AROMA outperforms existing methods across multiple cell lines, and remains robust under zero-shot evaluation on an unseen cell line, as well as in knowledge-sparse, long-tail scenarios. Overall, AROMA demonstrates that combining knowledge-driven multimodal modeling with evidence retrieval provides a promising pathway toward more reliable and interpretable virtual cell perturbation prediction. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/blazerye/AROMA. Code is available at https://github.com/blazerye/AROMA.

Accurate early prediction of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is critical for timely clinical intervention. However, existing deep learning models struggle with irregularly sampled data and suffer from the opaque "black-box" nature of sequential architectures, strictly limiting clinical trust. To address these challenges, we propose CT-Former, integrating continuous-time modeling with a Causal-Transformer. To handle data irregularity without biased artificial imputation, our framework utilizes a continuous-time state evolution mechanism to naturally track patient temporal trajectories. To resolve the black-box problem, our Causal-Attention module abandons uninterpretable hidden state aggregation. Instead, it generates a directed structural causal matrix to identify and trace the exact historical onset of severe physiological shocks. By establishing clear causal pathways between historical anomalies and current risk predictions, CT-Former provides native clinical interpretability. Training follows a decoupled two-stage protocol to optimize the causal-fusion process independently. Extensive experiments on the MIMIC-IV cohort (N=18,419) demonstrate that CT-Former significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. The results confirm that our explicitly transparent architecture offers an accurate and trustworthy tool for clinical decision-making.

A common strategy in transfer learning is few shot fine-tuning, but its success is highly dependent on the quality of samples selected as training examples. Active learning methods such as uncertainty sampling and diversity sampling can select useful samples. However, under extremely low-resource and class-imbalanced conditions, they often favor outliers rather than truly informative samples, resulting in degraded performance. In this paper, we introduce RADS (Reinforcement Adaptive Domain Sampling), a robust sample selection strategy using reinforcement learning (RL) to identify the most informative samples. Experimental evaluations on several real world clinical datasets show our sample selection strategy enhances model transferability while maintaining robust performance under extreme class imbalance compared to traditional methods.

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging due to high dimensionality, complex feature dependencies, and heterogeneous noise. Many existing methods rely on proximity-based cues and may miss anomalies caused by violations of complex feature dependencies. Dependency-based anomaly detection provides a principled alternative by identifying anomalies as violations of dependencies among features. However, existing methods often struggle to model such dependencies robustly and to scale to high-dimensional data with complex dependency structures. To address these challenges, we propose uLEAD-TabPFN, a dependency-based anomaly detection framework built on Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). uLEAD-TabPFN identifies anomalies as violations of conditional dependencies in a learned latent space, leveraging frozen PFNs for dependency estimation. Combined with uncertainty-aware scoring, the proposed framework enables robust and scalable anomaly detection. Experiments on 57 tabular datasets from ADBench show that uLEAD-TabPFN achieves particularly strong performance in medium- and high-dimensional settings, where it attains the top average rank. On high-dimensional datasets, uLEAD-TabPFN improves the average ROC-AUC by nearly 20% over the average baseline and by approximately 2.8% over the best-performing baseline, while maintaining overall superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Further analysis shows that uLEAD-TabPFN provides complementary anomaly detection capability, achieving strong performance on datasets where many existing methods struggle.

Text-guided molecular design is a key capability for AI-driven drug discovery, yet it remains challenging to map sequential natural-language instructions with non-linear molecular structures under strict chemical constraints. Most existing approaches, including RAG, CoT prompting, and fine-tuning or RL, emphasize a small set of ad-hoc reasoning perspectives implemented in a largely one-shot generation pipeline. In contrast, real-world drug discovery relies on dynamic, multi-perspective critique and iterative refinement to reconcile semantic intent with structural feasibility. Motivated by this, we propose Mol-Debate, a generation paradigm that enables such dynamic reasoning through an iterative generate-debate-refine loop. We further characterize key challenges in this paradigm and address them through perspective-oriented orchestration, including developer-debater conflict, global-local structural reasoning, and static-dynamic integration. Experiments demonstrate that Mol-Debate achieves state-of-the-art performance against strong general and chemical baselines, reaching 59.82% exact match on ChEBI-20 and 50.52% weighted success rate on S$^2$-Bench. Our code is available at https://github.com/wyuzh/Mol-Debate.

High-performance TSP solvers such as Lin-Kernighan-Helsgaun (LKH) search within a candidate graph – a small subset of edges pre-selected for the solver – rather than over the complete graph. The two leading sparsification heuristics, $\alpha$-Nearest and POPMUSIC, each fall short of the density-coverage balance: $\alpha$-Nearest is dense with stable recall, while POPMUSIC is sparser but its recall degrades with scale. Their union closes the recall gap while remaining far below the complete graph in density, leaving room for further reduction. Existing learning-based sparsifiers score edges on the complete graph, an approach that is expensive and largely limited to Euclidean instances. We propose a two-stage method that inverts this logic. Stage~1 takes the union of $\alpha$-Nearest and POPMUSIC, achieving near-perfect recall at ${\sim}6N$ edges. Crucially, the union annotates each edge with its source provenance – whether it was endorsed by $\alpha$-Nearest, POPMUSIC, or both. Stage~2 trains a lightweight classifier on these annotated edges and prunes the lowest-scoring ones. Because dual-source edges are almost always optimal, the learning problem reduces to filtering the single-source subset – a substantially easier task than classifying all $O(N^2)$ edges from scratch. Across four distance types, five spatial distributions, and problem sizes from 50 to 500, the pipeline reduces candidate-graph density by $37$-$47\%$ while retaining ${\geq}99.69\%$ of optimal-tour edges, and matches or exceeds the coverage of recent Euclidean-only neural sparsifiers at lower density at TSP500.

Depth is widely viewed as a central contributor to the success of deep neural networks, whereas standard neural network approximation theory typically provides guarantees only for the final output and leaves the role of intermediate layers largely unclear. We address this gap by developing a quantitative framework in which depth admits a precise scale-dependent interpretation. Specifically, we design a single shared mixed-activation architecture of fixed width $2dN+d+2$ and any prescribed finite depth such that each intermediate readout $\Phi_\ell$ is itself an approximant to the target function $f$. For $f\in L^p([0,1]^d)$ with $p\in [1,\infty)$, the approximation error of $\Phi_\ell$ is controlled by $(2d+1)$ times the $L^p$ modulus of continuity at the geometric scale $N^{-\ell}$ for all $\ell$. The estimate reduces to the geometric rate $(2d+1)N^{-\ell}$ if $f$ is $1$-Lipschitz. Our network design is inspired by multigrade deep learning, where depth serves as a progressive refinement mechanism. For every prescribed terminal depth, the construction yields a finite nested family of prefix readouts whose earlier correction terms remain embedded in later readouts. Thus the approximation may be truncated within the prescribed depth range once the desired certified accuracy is reached.

Individual differences in vibrotactile perception underscore the growing importance of personalization as haptic feedback becomes more prevalent in interactive systems. We propose Vibrotactile Preference Learning (VPL), a system that captures user-specific preference spaces over vibrotactile parameters via Gaussian-process-based uncertainty-aware preference learning. VPL uses an expected information gain-based acquisition strategy to guide query selection over 40 rounds of pairwise comparisons of overall user preference, augmented with user-reported uncertainty, enabling efficient exploration of the parameter space. We evaluate VPL in a user study (N = 13) using the vibrotactile feedback from a Microsoft Xbox controller, showing that it efficiently learns individualized preferences while maintaining comfortable, low-workload user interactions. These results highlight the potential of VPL for scalable personalization of vibrotactile experiences.

LLM self-play algorithms are notable in that, in principle, nothing bounds their learning: a Conjecturer model creates problems for a Solver, and both improve together. However, in practice, existing LLM self-play methods do not scale well with large amounts of compute, instead hitting learning plateaus. We argue this is because over long training runs, the Conjecturer learns to hack its reward, collapsing to artificially complex problems that do not help the Solver improve. To overcome this, we introduce Self-Guided Self-Play (SGS), a self-play algorithm in which the language model itself guides the Conjecturer away from degeneracy. In SGS, the model takes on three roles: Solver, Conjecturer, and a Guide that scores synthetic problems by their relevance to unsolved target problems and how clean and natural they are, providing supervision against Conjecturer collapse. Our core hypothesis is that language models can assess whether a subproblem is useful for achieving a goal. We evaluate the scaling properties of SGS by running training for significantly longer than prior works and by fitting scaling laws to cumulative solve rate curves. Applying SGS to formal theorem proving in Lean4, we find that it surpasses the asymptotic solve rate of our strongest RL baseline in fewer than 80 rounds of self-play and enables a 7B parameter model, after 200 rounds of self-play, to solve more problems than a 671B parameter model pass@4.

Cross-sectional stock ranking is a fundamental task in quantitative investment, relying on both temporal modeling of individual stocks and the capture of inter-stock dependencies. While existing deep learning models leverage graph-based approaches to enhance ranking accuracy by propagating information over relational graphs, they suffer from a key challenge: crosstalk, namely unintended information interference across predictive factors. We identify two forms of crosstalk: temporal-scale crosstalk, where trends, fluctuations, and shocks are entangled in a shared representation and non-transferable local patterns contaminate cross-stock learning; and structural crosstalk, where heterogeneous relations are indiscriminately fused and relation-specific predictive signals are obscured. To address both issues, we propose the Anti-CrossTalk (ACT) framework for cross-sectional stock ranking via temporal disentanglement and structural purification. Specifically, ACT first decomposes each stock sequence into trend, fluctuation, and shock components, then extracts component-specific information through dedicated branches, which effectively decouples non-transferable local patterns. ACT further introduces a Progressive Structural Purification Encoder to sequentially purify structural crosstalk on the trend component after mitigating temporal-scale crosstalk. An adaptive fusion module finally integrates all branch representations for ranking. Experiments on CSI300 and CSI500 demonstrate that ACT achieves state-of-the-art ranking accuracy and superior portfolio performance, with improvements of up to 74.25% on the CSI300 dataset.

Wildfire monitoring requires timely, actionable situational awareness from airborne platforms, yet existing aerial visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks do not evaluate wildfire-specific multimodal reasoning grounded in thermal measurements. We introduce WildFireVQA, a large-scale VQA benchmark for aerial wildfire monitoring that integrates RGB imagery with radiometric thermal data. WildFireVQA contains 6,097 RGB-thermal samples, where each sample includes an RGB image, a color-mapped thermal visualization, and a radiometric thermal TIFF, and is paired with 34 questions, yielding a total of 207,298 multiple-choice questions spanning presence and detection, classification, distribution and segmentation, localization and direction, cross-modal reasoning, and flight planning for operational wildfire intelligence. To improve annotation reliability, we combine multimodal large language model (MLLM)-based answer generation with sensor-driven deterministic labeling, manual verification, and intra-frame and inter-frame consistency checks. We further establish a comprehensive evaluation protocol for representative MLLMs under RGB, Thermal, and retrieval-augmented settings using radiometric thermal statistics. Experiments show that across task categories, RGB remains the strongest modality for current models, while retrieved thermal context yields gains for stronger MLLMs, highlighting both the value of temperature-grounded reasoning and the limitations of existing MLLMs in safety-critical wildfire scenarios. The dataset and benchmark code are open-source at https://github.com/mobiiin/WildFire_VQA.

Learning the underlying potential energy of stochastic gradient systems from partial and noisy observations is a fundamental problem arising in physics, chemistry, and data-driven modeling. Classical approaches often rely on direct regression of governing equations or velocity fields, which can be sensitive to noise and external perturbations and may fail when observations are incomplete. In this work, we propose a structure-aware, energy-based learning framework for inferring unknown potential functions in generalized diffusion processes, grounded in the energetic variational approach. Starting from the energy-dissipation law associated with the Fokker-Planck equation, we construct loss functions based on the De Giorgi dissipation functional, which consistently couple the free energy and the dissipation mechanism of the system. This formulation avoids explicit enforcement of the governing partial differential equation and preserves the underlying variational structure of the dynamics. Through numerical experiments in one, two, and three dimensions, we demonstrate that the proposed energy-based loss exhibits enhanced robustness with respect to observation time, noise level, and the diversity and amount of available training data. These results highlight the effectiveness of energy-dissipation principles as a reliable foundation for learning stochastic diffusion dynamics from data.