Papers

We discuss three simple connections between generative diffusion and optimal transport. First, the joint law of the data and of their Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noising is, at every time, the solution of an entropic optimal-transport problem, at a temperature set by the noise level. Backward diffusion can consequently be read as an annealing which gradually decreases the entropic regularization. Second, we study the speciation transition–how the modes of the data distribution emerge during generation–and compare how it happens in diffusion and flow matching with respect to optimal transport. Using Gaussian mixtures as high-dimensional example, we show that the dynamical instability through which diffusion and flow matching separate the modes becomes, for optimal transport, an exponentially thin boundary layer at the beginning of generation, which is rounded by entropic regularization. Third, considering a generic forward dynamics with a general confining potential, we show that the backward process driven by the score also satisfies a drift-based variational principle whose minimal cost is the entropy difference between initial and final distributions.

Vocal intensity conversion renders a recorded utterance at a different vocal intensity, rather than simply scaling its amplitude, while preserving its content and speaker identity. Existing systems control intensity through a reference utterance or a few discrete categories. Instead, we control the conversion with any target sound pressure level (SPL) on a continuous dB scale. A lightweight converter, trained as a conditional cycle-consistent GAN without parallel data, transforms the features of a frozen speech encoder, from which a pretrained vocoder resynthesizes the speech. We compare three representations, log-mel spectrograms, WavLM, and SpeechTokenizer, and introduce an objective protocol that measures the achieved intensity change against the target one on a calibrated corpus. With WavLM, the converter achieves a measured 83% of the target change in intensity and also shifts the fundamental frequency. A perceptual evaluation confirms that perceived vocal intensity increases with the target level on amplitude-normalized stimuli.

Correlation matrices combine nonlinear positive-definiteness constraints with a simultaneous row-column permutation symmetry. Their generation therefore involves two distinct problems. First, every output must remain on the correlation elliptope, irrespective of how its variables are ordered. Second, the generator must learn the domain-specific distribution occupied by empirical data inside that valid space. Existing financial image generators mix these problems: they learn ordered matrix entries and repair invalid draws afterward. We introduce CorrFlow, which separates them. A generalized Fisher transform maps full-rank correlation matrices bijectively to unconstrained coordinates, guaranteeing valid outputs without projection. A graph flow-matching network learns the empirical distribution in those coordinates and is permutation equivariant: reordering the variables only reorders the output. We compare a conditional CorrGAN reimplementation, image diffusion, and CorrFlow on $80\times80$ Taiwan equity matrices using five seeds per neural method. CorrFlow produces 100% valid draws without repair and obtains feature sliced-Wasserstein distance $.712\pm.141$, versus $4.339\pm.252$ for CorrGAN and $4.610\pm.191$ for image diffusion after their invalid outputs are projected back to the correlation space. It also improves this distance over historical lookup, while lookup retains higher local coverage. These results support the combined construction under the evaluated training budget; they do not establish superiority over fully tuned image models or isolate the contribution of each component.

Psychology has proposed many principles of cognition. Each, however, was developed in isolation, leaving their combined explanatory power unknown. We assembled a small set of established principles into one model, which we call COntextual Retrieval and Encoding (CORE). CORE consists of a hierarchy of episodic memories into which prediction errors are written and whose encoding, retrieval, and forgetting depend on context. Fitted jointly to 7,036,442 choices from 137 experiments, the model predicts human choices better than black-box models and reproduces 75% of reported behavioral effects when simulated. Moreover, its latent variables show classic signatures of Bayesian learning and event segmentation. Taken together, these findings suggest that a small cognitive core accounts for much of human behavior. They also open a path toward making psychology more than the sum of its parts, by building computational models on the entire experimental record.

Diagnostic information in multi-view medical imaging studies, like echocardiography, is distributed across views, each capturing different aspects of cardiac structure and function. In clinical practice, these views are first interpreted through quantitative measurements, which then support specific diagnoses. However, existing echo representation learning methods do not explicitly model measurements as an intermediate representation between views and diagnosis. As a result, individual measurements are not explicitly represented in a form that downstream diagnostic tasks can selectively use, hindering accurate diagnosis. Inspired by this hierarchical clinical workflow, we introduce EchoTab, a measurement-grounded representation learning framework that represents multi-view echocardiography studies using measurement-specific tokens as an intermediate representation between echo views and diagnosis. Each measurement token selectively attends to the views relevant to its estimation and is trained through tabular reconstruction to predict the corresponding measurement value. The resulting tokens form a factorized echo representation, which encode clinically meaningful structural and functional properties and can be selectively used for downstream diagnosis. Unlike the commonly used contrastive approaches, EchoTab does not require negative samples or large batch sizes. Experiments on two datasets demonstrate that EchoTab learns effective measurement-grounded representations that improve diagnosis classification in multi-view echocardiography and its learned attention aligns with established measurement-view relationships used by cardiologists. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/michelleespranita/EchoTab.

Recent results [arXiv:2602.04378, arXiv:2602.22608] have established worst-case objective-error lower bounds of order $1/T^2$ after $T$ linear minimization oracle (LMO) calls, matching the upper bound [arXiv:1406.1305] in its dependence on $T$ and thereby resolving a long-standing open question. Upon close inspection, however, both lower bounds are somewhat brittle. The first [arXiv:2602.04378] applies only to the standard Frank–Wolfe algorithm, and, as we show, its prescribed slow exact-line-search trajectories can amplify sufficiently small initialization errors exponentially, corresponding to roughly one additional bit of initialization accuracy per iteration. The second [arXiv:2602.22608] obtains lower bounds for any deterministic LMO-based first-order method via a resisting oracle that adversarially adapts to the queries of the algorithm. In both cases it is conceivable that randomization may circumvent these lower bounds; in particular, neither establishes a lower bound for unrestricted randomized first-order LMO methods. We close this gap by proving an $\Omega(L\operatorname{diam}(S)^2/T^2)$ distributional lower bound for randomized first-order linear minimization oracle methods over strongly convex sets. While our construction reuses the family of [arXiv:2602.22608], our proof characterizes the conditional distribution of the hidden permutation after adaptive queries and bounds the expected decrease of a combinatorial statistic controlling optimizer variance. We further show that the same error threshold holds with probability at least $3/4$ and yields a stopping-time tail bound.

Uncertainty quantification for electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is essential to turn the increasing pressure of EV adoption on power systems into a source of flexibility. We study a large-scale dataset of public charging stations in Scotland, where demand exhibits a hierarchical structure, organized across multiple aggregation levels, from individual charging points to regional and national scales. The charging infrastructure is continuously evolving, with new stations deployed and existing ones occasionally removed, which calls for forecasting and uncertainty quantification methods tailored to this evolving structure. To address these challenges, we combine hierarchical forecasting with recent advances in conformal prediction with missing data. The conformal procedures considered produce valid prediction intervals at every node of the hierarchy and the algorithm CP-MNR-Nested successfully accounts for the time-varying hierarchical structure of the data.

Pre-trained robot policies, such as Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, provide a strong foundation for generalist robotic manipulation, but adapting them to new tasks with only a few demonstrations remains challenging. Directly fine-tuning a pre-trained policy often achieves strong in-distribution performance, yet it can distort the representations learned during pre-training and weaken the model's generalization ability under out-of-distribution shifts. We propose Retrieval-Anchored Representation Alignment (RARA), a two-stage adaptation method, to address this issue. First, RARA retrieves representation features from pretraining with similar task intent and motion, and aligns the policy's representations of the target demonstrations with the pre-trained representations of the retrieved demonstrations. Second, RARA fine-tunes the policy on the target demonstrations while limiting how much its representations of the retrieved demonstrations change during fine-tuning. By reducing the representation mismatch before action learning and preserving pre-trained knowledge during adaptation, RARA limits unnecessary representation drift during fine-tuning. Experiments with Diffusion Policy and GR00T on 13 tasks in RoboTwin, RoboCasa, and on a real robot show that RARA improves the average success of fine-tuning by 9.5 points in-distribution and 13.6 points out-of-distribution, and outperforms all compared baselines. Project page: https://shua-kang.github.io/RARA_robot/

Feature selection is a central problem in high-dimensional financial regression, where large numbers of engineered variables and strong correlations among predictors reduce model stability and interpretability. $L_1$ regularization (Lasso) is widely used for sparse regression, but its shrinkage can be restrictive when informative signals are spread across correlated variables. Exact sparse regression avoids this shrinkage but requires solving a combinatorial optimization problem that is computationally difficult and is typically fit to minimize in-sample rather than out-of-sample error. This paper presents a feature selection framework based on Monte Carlo Tree Search with Generalized Nested Rollout Policy Adaptation (GNRPA). Feature selection is formulated as a sequential decision process, and candidate subsets are scored by their out-of-sample validation performance rather than training error. The method also supports a lexicographic objective accounting for subset size and multicollinearity. We study this approach on a contemporaneous explanatory regression task: explaining the weekly return of the NASDAQ-100 index from 1,072 engineered features spanning market, macroeconomic, and factor data. This isolates the value of subset selection under multicollinearity from the separate problem of predictive forecasting. On this task, the proposed method identifies sparse feature subsets with higher out-of-sample explanatory power than an optimized Lasso baseline, reaching an out-of-sample $R^2$ of 0.6961 versus 0.6313 for Lasso. These results suggest that Monte Carlo Tree Search is a practical alternative to convex regularization for sparse explanatory feature selection in financial regression, with potential value for factor attribution and risk decomposition where transparency matters as much as out-of-sample fit.

We study simultaneous competitive and regret guarantees for TCP acknowledgment. Each acknowledgment serves all pending packets, and the objective is to minimize the total acknowledgment and waiting costs. It is well known that no deterministic online algorithm achieves a competitive ratio better than $2$. Given $k$ randomized online experts and $0<\varepsilon<1$, we construct a randomized online algorithm whose realized total cost is always at most $(2+\varepsilon)$ times the offline optimal cost $\mathrm{OPT}$ and whose expected regret against the expert with the smallest realized cost is $O(\sqrt{\mathrm{OPT}\log(k+1)}+\log(1/\varepsilon))$. The algorithm requires no advance knowledge of the number of packets or $\mathrm{OPT}$. Our algorithm controls switching costs between experts and uses the gap between the permitted competitive bound and its current cost to determine when to learn. We also prove lower bounds showing that, for $k\ge 2$, this regret bound is asymptotically optimal in $\mathrm{OPT}$, $k$, and $\varepsilon$, and that $\varepsilon>0$ is necessary for sublinear regret.

We present Rationally Linearized Multilayer Perceptrons(RaLiMPs), a new approach to efficiently linearizing MLPs using low-degree rational approximations of standard activation functions. Inspired by polynomial-based MLP linearization, we show that rational approximations can provide accurate representations at substantially lower degree. RaLiMPs exploit these approximations to construct kernel representations with narrow bottlenecks, enabling efficient composition across MLP layers. We provide theoretical guarantees for the resulting approximation and evaluate RaLiMPs across applications ranging from implicit 3D models to large language models. Our experiments demonstrate favorable accuracy–efficiency tradeoffs, with RaLiMPs achieving competitive or improved accuracy while substantially reducing inference cost.

Anticipation of vessel trajectories is an essential task when navigating at sea. This applies to both human navigators and autonomous surface vessels. Trajectory forecasting enables sub-routines such as collision avoidance to assess the situation and react accordingly in time. This paper investigates Transformer and Performer models for trajectory prediction of surface vessels in confined waters. Using widely available position data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), candidate models are trained and evaluated. Historical information on how other vessels have moved in the local area surrounding each agent is conveyed using positional heat maps. The heat maps are generated using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and encoded with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) before entering the Transformer models. The models are trained with quantile loss to efficiently obtain a model-aware prediction interval, as this is crucial for timely collision avoidance. The proposed model architectures are shown to greatly outperform previous work while the inclusion of local heat maps enables the prediction of vessel movement that is not otherwise indicated from the previous positions.

When a language model is distilled from a teacher that shares its base parameters, the student can inherit behavioural traits of the teacher—including misalignment—even from data that is semantically unrelated to the trait (Cloud et al., 2026). All existing defences require knowing the trait. We remove this requirement and prove that a subliminally transferred trait can be recovered from the parameter updates alone, without supervision, by exploiting a single asymmetry: the trait is expressed consistently across diverse datasets generated by the teacher, whereas task-specific and shared capabilities vary. The resulting estimator returns a weight-space direction that can be amplified to discover and interpret the trait or projected out to suppress it. Applied to the subliminal-learning benchmarks of (Cloud et al., 2026), our method recovers the transmitted animal-preference traits without any trait labels and suppresses their expression with almost no impact to task performance.

Multimodal language models (MLLMs) exhibit promising spatial reasoning capabilities, yet the internal mechanisms supporting them remain poorly understood. We uncover S-Space, a linear representation subspace in which object-token representations encode continuous coordinates along horizontal, vertical, and distance axes. Although we identify these axes by differentiating spatial-answer scores with respect to object-token activations, S-Space is intrinsic rather than induced by specific data or prompts, remaining readable under non-spatial questions. We show that S-Space functions as an internal spatial workspace of MLLMs. Perception encodes object locations into it, forming spatial representations that can be directly read out to support accurate spatial judgments. Internal reasoning transforms it for changing viewpoints. Verbal responses selectively access it, evidenced by causal interventions that alter spatial judgments while largely preserving non-spatial responses. Case studies further show that S-Space assigns locations to unseen entities and the observer, and connects physical directions with abstract linguistic meanings, suggesting both the capabilities and limitations of large-scale language training. Finally, we use S-Space as a diagnostic tool for spatial reasoning failures. Direction-word readouts reveal systematic coupling between cardinal and image-relative reference frames. More importantly, a perception-computation decomposition exposes a key bottleneck: MLLMs can form capable spatial representations, yet fall short in the spatial transformations required to reason reliably across viewpoint changes.

Intermittent “spikes” in loss, during the pre-training of Large Language Models (LLMs), remains a mysterious phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. In this paper, we show that simple quadratic models with heavy-tailed, power-law distributed inputs can replicate these spikes. We introduce a theoretical framework and simulation algorithm to model per-layer training dynamics of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), using such quadratic models. In a case study on an Adam hyperparameter configuration (where $\beta_2$ is set close to $1$) known to induce spikes in Transformer LMs, our simulation successfully predicts bumps indicating spiky behavior from a given checkpoint. Furthermore, we derive an appropriate $\beta_2$ schedule from observed metrics, which empirically improves performance.

In machine learning, a self-attention dynamics describes the attention mechanism of transformers, and is obtained treating the layer index of a transformer as time index. Even though naturally discrete-time, this dynamical system is most often studied in continuous-time. Scope of this paper is to provide a thorough investigation of the discrete-time version of the self-attention dynamics: a complete classification of its equilibria is given, and their stability properties are studied, in both the single-head and the multihead case. We show that in both cases the main attractor of the dynamics is a consensus equilibrium aligned with the principal eigenvector of the value matrix (in the single-head case, a corresponding matrix of weights in the multihead case), even though other locally asymptotically stable bipartite equilibria can be show to exist at least in the single-head situation. The behavior is confirmed by looking at the learned weight matrices of a real transformer.

Federated learning (FL) seeks to optimize a shared global model from decentralized client data. While effective for average performance, this process can produce unfair performance across clients, particularly under statistically heterogeneous data distributions. Existing fairness-aware and multi-objective FL methods address this through client re-weighting, gradient correction, or common-descent formulations, but often change the global optimization direction or treat client objectives symmetrically. We propose FedPCD, a priority-constrained federated optimization framework that separates the global optimization objective from client protection. FedPCD preserves the conventional federated aggregate as the primary objective, while allowing only the minimum correction necessary to meet client performance constraints. Across heterogeneous FL benchmarks, FedPCD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving the highest global accuracy across all configurations and leading worst-10% client accuracy in nearly all. FedPCD further preserves competitive trade-offs between global accuracy and client performance variability. Beyond this trade-off, FedPCD demonstrates faster empirical convergence, reaching matching or superior performance in substantially fewer communication rounds.

Generative Recommenders increasingly use Reinforcement Learning (RL) to optimize outcomes that may appear hundreds or thousands of interactions after a decision. Standard RL propagates reward according to temporal proximity rather than explicit relevance, attenuating the signal assigned to distant but important actions and creating a source of sample inefficiency. We introduce Explanatory World Models (EWM), an attribution framework that uses explanations to identify the earlier events that plausibly contributed to a realized outcome. We instantiate EWM with a frontier language model and use its explanations as learning signals using a conservative hierarchical operator that recursively redistributes reward while preserving the undiscounted episode return. To investigate what constitutes a useful explanation, we operationalize three complementary variants inspired by Halpern's actual causation, Lombrozo's explanatory simplicity, and Deutsch's hard-to-vary explanations. We evaluate EWM on two controlled long-horizon RL benchmarks, a public sequential-recommendation benchmark, and an industry-scale generative recommender. On Crafter and WordCraft, EWM substantially outperforms PPO and LaRe, with its largest gains when rewards are most delayed. On KuaiRand, EWM outperforms SFT and LaRe offline and A2C online. Finally, in an offline evaluation of an industry generative recommender, EWM considerably improves Recall and increases behavioral proxies. These results suggest that explanations can provide structured and reusable credit for learning from delayed outcomes.

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) can be applied to large nonlinear systems with complex objectives while enforcing constraints, but the cost of solving the underlying optimization problems limits real-time application for systems with fast dynamics or many states. Neural networks can reduce this online cost by approximating the control law, but may violate constraints and typically require many precomputed optimizer solutions for training. The learning-based iterative solver for constrained optimization (LISCO) instead learns to predict primal-dual steps toward satisfaction of the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions through self-supervised training without precomputed solutions, but its dense, monolithic architecture grows with the prediction horizon. We remove this horizon dependence by exploiting the temporal structure of the problem in the solver architecture, which makes the network size independent of the horizon while leaving the training loss and the solver iteration unchanged. A closed-loop resampling strategy further aligns the training distribution with closed-loop operation at no additional sampling cost. On an economic NMPC benchmark of a CSTR cascade, the proposed solver scales to larger problems than monolithic LISCO and achieves median speedups of up to a factor of four over IPOPT. In closed loop, it achieves comparable control performance to IPOPT with no observed constraint violations.

We derive approximation rates for Sobolev functions defined on the complex unit sphere and complex projective space, representing quantum states, and on the special and projective unitary groups, representing quantum unitary operations. By using harmonic analysis on compact groups and compact homogeneous spaces, we characterize the corresponding Peter–Weyl decompositions and Sobolev spaces via irreducible representations and the Laplace–Beltrami operator. Combining spectral truncation with finite-depth quantum-circuit approximation, invoking the Solovay–Kitaev theorem, we establish quantitative rates that separate the spectral truncation error from the circuit approximation error.

AI systems are making rapid progress in mathematics, but this progress is hard to measure. Benchmarks of solved problems saturate, and in benchmarks of open problems each problem can be resolved for the first time only once. We present SqueezeBench, a benchmark that is resilient to saturation: a success raises the bar instead of removing the problem. Each problem fixes an integer function $f(n)$ whose values are known only for small $n$, and the benchmark keeps a lower and an upper record on it. A record is a computable Lean function with a machine-checked proof that it bounds $f$. A submission proposes a new function and proves that it bounds $f$, that it is no worse than the current record at any $n$, and that it is strictly better at some $n$. Once accepted, it becomes the record that the next submission has to beat. The system thus chooses the bound as well as its proof, and it may improve the record at a single $n$ or its growth rate. At every $n$, the gap between the two records shows how far the certified bounds are from determining $f(n)$. Every proof is checked by two independent Lean kernels, so no referee needs to check the mathematics. The checks also reject a function that computes $f$ by exhaustive search at small $n$, and a maintainer only reads the submitter's report and looks for such a search at larger $n$. We release ten problems from extremal combinatorics with twenty proved initial records and the admission tools. As a baseline, agents based on a frontier language model, with at most one hour per record, had 82 submissions accepted and improved every record, without going beyond the published literature. Agents based on two newer models then started from these records, had 60 more submissions accepted and improved 19 of the 20 records again. For eight of the ten problems, at least one record is still asymptotically behind the best published bound.

Compression schemes provide a general framework for deriving data-dependent risk bounds for learning algorithms. For learning rules based on preferent compression, existing results upper-bound the risk in terms of a sample-dependent complexity $\boldsymbol{k}$, defined as the cardinality of the compression augmented by the training examples on which the reconstructed hypothesis is inappropriate. These results, however, yield a margin of order $O(\sqrt{\ln N/N})$ above $\boldsymbol{k}/N$. In this paper, we establish that the logarithmic factor is not intrinsic. We prove that, for every fixed confidence level $1-\delta$, the risk is bounded with probability at least $1-\delta$ by $$ \frac{\boldsymbol{k}}{N} + O\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}}\right), $$ uniformly over all possible values of $\boldsymbol{k}$. Thus, risk estimates for learning algorithms based on preferent compression attain the same law-of-large-numbers rate as the empirical estimate of the probability of a fixed event. We also show that the leading term $\boldsymbol{k}/N$ is necessary and investigate its relation to the empirical risk. In particular, we identify regimes in which the empirical risk retains the $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ convergence rate, as well as regimes in which it converges more slowly or ceases to be consistent, while the complexity-based estimator preserves the $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ rate.

Recent accent classification systems can achieve high accuracy in standard in-corpus evaluations. However, when speakers overlap between the training and test sets, such results may overestimate model robustness compared with real-world deployment scenarios. This study revisits the robustness of DistilHuBERT-based accent classification by using L2-ARCTIC and multiple external English accent datasets. The comparison covers file-level and speaker-disjoint splits, along with balanced external-data training and teacher-student pseudo-labeling. The large performance gap between in-corpus and external evaluations suggests that file-level evaluation substantially overestimates performance, while speaker-disjoint evaluation can provide a more realistic estimate of the generalization to unseen speakers. In this study, models trained on external data alone do not reliably generalize to L2-ARCTIC. Among the tested configurations, balanced external-data training offers the most promising supervised setting. The pseudo-labeling experiments further indicate that confidence-based filtering alone is insufficient under domain mismatch. Overall, this study suggests that robust accent classification evaluation should simultaneously include speaker-disjoint evaluation and cross-corpus testing.

Photoplethysmography (PPG) is increasingly recorded by wearable and clinical devices at enormous scale, and a growing number of PPG foundation models (FMs) have been developed to compute reusable representations for various downstream tasks. These models are difficult to compare: different evaluations use different datasets, task definitions, preprocessing, downstream heads, hyperparameter tuning, and baselines. We present PPG-Bench, a unifying open-source benchmark evaluating five public PPG FMs across nine open-access datasets and 26 tasks spanning cardiovascular state estimation, activity, sleep, screening, and identification. We evaluate models under four downstream regimes of increasing adaptability (linear probing, random forests, frozen MLP probes, and end-to-end finetuning), with model-specific hyperparameter optimization and subject-disjoint cross-validation. We also evaluate against three controls: random/constant baseline, a deterministic pulse-rate-variability (PRV) feature set, and a generic time-series FM (MOMENT). Across all 68 task-regime combinations, 35.3% show no meaningful FM advantage over the random/constant baseline, and in 83.8% no PPG-specific FM outperforms both PRV and MOMENT. We also find that added downstream head capacity generally improves performance, but can cause significant degradation if the model is performing at chance/constant level. Current PPG FMs therefore cannot yet claim to provide generalised and transferrable representations of PPG signals, and future evaluation in this field should include checks against simple, non-learned controls. Code for the benchmark and instructions to evaluate more models can be found here - https://github.com/mannas-ai/ppg-bench.

Earnings call transcription presents a realistic continual learning scenario where Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems are updated with new recordings but risk catastrophic forgetting of previously learned financial speech patterns. Adapting Whisper-small from a general-domain speech corpus to the Earnings22 benchmark reveals the opposite: all evaluated methods exhibit improvement on held-out financial speech from the same domain during adaptation rather than forgetting. This task complementarity makes regularization counterproductive. Nevertheless, when regularization is warranted, a layer-wise mini-Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (mini-KFAC) approximation seems to achieve lower word error rates (WERs) and more stable optimization than standard diagonal Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC). The results suggest that task complementarity should be assessed before applying continual learning constraints, and prefer mini-KFAC EWC over diagonal EWC when needed.

Time series causal discovery — the process of detecting causation between time series — has its roots in signal processing research from over a half century ago. It has since received active and widespread interest, evolving into different forms across domains such as statistics, dynamical systems and machine learning. Entering this fragmented and constantly evolving research landscape can be daunting. This tutorial provides a unified overview of time series causal discovery across research communities. We introduce the key principles invoked by modern discovery methods, and we discuss their limitations and assumptions. We also discuss how discovery methods are evaluated, benchmarked and fine-tuned. We further discuss how causal discovery for time series is becoming crucial for downstream tasks in agriculture and Earth science, in healthcare, and in artificial intelligence systems. We believe that this tutorial will serve as a valuable resource in navigating the deluge of recent causality research, as well as an invitation to signal processing audiences to contribute to causal problems. To further help readers, we host a companion repository to link to useful code packages and resources at https://github.com/CHAI-UK/Awesome-Time-Series-Causal-Discovery.

Traditional system identification typically involves two steps: initially, training data is processed to estimate a model of the system of interest; then, the model is used to predict outputs for new input queries. In contrast, recent in-context learning approaches learn a meta model that maps directly from training data and query inputs to outputs in a zero-shot fashion, bypassing explicit model estimation. This approach leverages a meta model trained offline, on large sets of synthetically generated data, to emulate the behavior of a system identification algorithm. In this work, we advance this meta-learning framework for system identification in three directions. First, we develop a unified probabilistic meta-identification architecture that combines a Transformer-based encoder-decoder with tailored mechanisms for handling long training sequences, enabling calibrated predictions over long horizons. Second, we show how a pre-trained meta model can act as an uncertainty-aware synthetic data generator for classical system identification, providing task-specific data that regularize parametric models when real data are scarce. Third, we systematically evaluate the framework on standard nonlinear system identification benchmarks and on a challenging out-of-distribution scenario, demonstrating competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art methods and strong generalization, including cases where input-only adaptation is sufficient to handle significant distribution shifts.

Exhaustive optimistic scoring can make action selection costly in linear bandits with a large fixed set of $K$ actions, requiring $\mathcal{O}(K)$ score evaluations per round. We introduce Persistent Candidate LinUCB (PC-LinUCB), which maintains $k$ active actions and samples $q$ challengers uniformly from the remaining $K-k$ actions at each round. By scoring only these $k+q$ candidates, PC-LinUCB reduces the number of score evaluations per round to $\mathcal{O}(k+q)$. We establish problem-independent and problem-dependent high-probability regret bounds consisting of a standard linear-bandit learning term and an additive discovery cost of order $\mathcal{O}\left((K-k)\log(K-k)/q\right)$ at fixed confidence. Notably, this additional cost does not grow with the horizon. For fixed gaps and sufficiently long horizons, we establish an $\Omega\left((K-k)/q\right)$ regret lower bound under uniform challenger sampling, showing that partial candidate access itself imposes an unavoidable regret cost. Experiments show that PC-LinUCB substantially accelerates LinUCB while maintaining comparable regret, and that the persistent candidate mechanism can extend beyond LinUCB.

Forecasting desertification has received far less attention than mapping it. We use a convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) trained on ten annual Earth Observation (EO) variables (2000-2023) over the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil, on a 256x206 grid at roughly 2.2 km resolution, to measure how much of the year-to-year evolution of a MapBiomas-derived degradation index (IDV) can be predicted from satellite data. The network predicts a bounded change on top of the last observed state, is trained in two stages (single-step, then recursive rollout) and is evaluated on a contiguous spatial and temporal holdout. State-wide mean IDV rose from 0.238 to 0.350 between 2000 and 2023, about 0.005 per year, but cell-level change is dominated by year-to-year jumps, and a gradient-boosting model given all channels explains only 4.7% of its variance. Against this ceiling, the ConvLSTM lowers RMSE relative to persistence by 1.6% one year ahead and 4.4% four years ahead in a held-out southern band (p < 0.001), beats persistence with a constant drift and reproduces 53-69% of the regional drift. Drift-aware baselines only help from the third year onward, by up to 4.4% in RMSE at six years. An earlier formulation that redrew the whole field each year predicted changes unrelated to the observed ones (correlation -0.06) and produced a spurious decline when run recursively. Channel knockouts suggest that elevation and EVI degrade the forecast, while slope and aspect have no measurable effect. Monte Carlo dropout and stochastic scenario maps convey the uncertainty that the expected-value forecast hides. Under climatological forcing, mean IDV rises from 0.350 in 2023 to 0.370 in 2030. EO-based desertification forecasting is therefore reliable for the regional trend, not for individual cells.

Linear models can predict well in complex domains even when underlying mechanisms are nonlinear. We argue that this can occur because the complexity of the world exceeds the complexity that can be learned reliably from finite, partially observed data. Flexible models can exploit curvature, thresholds, and interactions that fit one hospital, period, population, policy setting, or measurement process but fail elsewhere. When this instability lies mainly in the nonlinear component, omitting it can give linear models lower prediction error in a new environment. We connect this claim to work on simple linear rules, bias and variance, regularization, best linear prediction, measurement error, distribution shift, invariance, Rashomon sets, and underspecification. Proposition 1 gives a simple squared-error case in which a nonlinear rule learned in the training environment raises target error because it transfers too weakly; finite-sample estimation error can strengthen this result. Partial observation alone is not enough: the link between observed variables and unobserved factors must vary across environments. Stable nonlinear structure favors flexible models, and linear models remain vulnerable to linear spurious relationships. Model complexity should therefore be chosen by cross-environment stability as well as training-data accuracy.