Papers

Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models across nowcasting, medium-range, and subseasonal-to-seasonal lead times, producing well-calibrated ensemble forecasts at reduced cost. We review these advances and consider their extension to climate horizons, where the challenge shifts from initial-condition skill to producing reliable statistical responses under altered forcings. AI-powered climate prediction systems must produce credible forced responses to drivers (e.g., greenhouse gases, land-use change) typically outside the observed record. We propose two minimum requirements for AI in climate modeling: (i) external forcing agents must enter explicitly enough to support interventions in which they vary independently; and (ii) robustness must be stress-tested in out-of-distribution regimes, including extremes and counterfactual trajectories. Using leading AI autoregressive emulators and hybrid physics-AI models, we identify development and coupling challenges. Comparing the reported throughput of these models with that of GPU-ported dynamical models highlights how AI can reduce time-to-solution by advancing only the target variables at the required resolution and using longer time steps, rather than integrating a full high-frequency, multivariate state. Diverse AI downscaling strategies can partially substitute for explicit fine-scale resolution, paving the way toward inexpensive local hazard assessment across prediction horizons.

Mean field limits describe the training dynamics of wide neural networks through the evolution of the empirical distribution of their parameters. Although functional central limit theorems characterize the asymptotic fluctuations of this distribution, quantities of practical interest are typically nonlinear observables of the parameter distribution rather than the distribution itself. In this work, we show how these mean field fluctuations propagate to finite dimensional nonlinear observables for shallow neural networks trained by stochastic gradient descent. Working in the weighted Sobolev space in which the limiting fluctuation process is constructed, we apply a functional Delta method under ordinary Fréchet differentiability, without requiring Lions derivatives with respect to the measure variable. We obtain a central limit theorem for the observables and, under a suitable representation of their differentials, an explicit covariance formula inherited from the underlying mean field fluctuation theory. We also study whether prescribed quantities of interest can be recovered from the selected observations. Under a constant rank assumption, we prove that a quantity of interest factors locally through the observation functional if and only if, throughout a neighborhood, the kernel of the differential of the observation is contained in that of the quantity of interest. Thus, a differential condition expressed directly in the ambient Sobolev space yields an exact nonlinear local factorization. These results provide a framework both for quantifying finite-width uncertainty on observable, statistically or physically meaningful quantities and for assessing whether the chosen observations contain the information required to identify them.

Offline reinforcement learning enables reward-driven policy improvement from fixed datasets without requiring online exploration, making it particularly attractive in safety-critical domains. A central challenge, however, is distribution shift: policy optimization may favor actions that are weakly supported by the offline data, rendering value estimates unreliable. Existing approaches primarily control this shift in the policy's own action space. In interactive environments such as autonomous driving, this can be insufficient: a candidate ego trajectory may remain well supported under the marginal behavior distribution while being poorly supported jointly with the surrounding-agent behavior observed in the logged interaction. We refer to this degradation in interaction support as interaction distribution shift (IDS), and introduce Interaction-Constrained Drive Policy (ICDP), an offline reinforcement learning framework that explicitly controls interaction-level distribution shift. Starting from the joint data distribution over ego and surrounding-agent futures, we show that joint-support degradation decomposes exactly into an ego-support component and a residual interaction-support component. We recover the latter through contrastive density-ratio estimation, isolating interaction compatibility without explicit joint-density modeling, surrounding-agent prediction, or rollouts in reactive simulators or learned world models during policy optimization. Closed-loop evaluations on nuPlan, Interplan and real-world truck experiments show that ICDP suppresses high-value yet interaction-unsupported trajectory selections and improves performance in interaction-critical driving scenarios. Project webpage: https://mahmoud-selim.github.io/ICDP/

Transformers have in-context learning capabilities, where some known learning algorithms can be executed in the forward pass through the model. Recent work shows that transformers can exactly perform Lloyd's algorithm for $k$-means clustering with $n$ points in $d$ dimensions with an embedding size $d_{\textsf{emb}} = d+k$ (thus, requiring attention projection matrices of size $(d+k)^2$). In this work, we build upon this result in the following ways: First, we present an equally expressive but smaller transformer that executes Lloyd's algorithm with embedding size $d_{\textsf{emb}} = (d + \lceil \log_2 k \rceil)$. Next, we train these transformers to learn the clustering algorithms given a distribution of clustering tasks, and theoretically characterize and empirically validate the factors affecting the convergence and in-distribution generalization of learning algorithms based on stochastic gradients. Finally, we probe the general clustering abilities of these learned algorithms (in the form of transformers), and try to understand situations where they succeed and fail.

Flow matching enables language generation in few steps, but whether additional integration steps improve reasoning remains unclear. We prove that a flow parameterized by a two-layer Transformer can solve graph reachability, with the required number of integration steps increasing with the target's distance from the root. Yet, standard flow language models can fail to benefit from additional steps on reasoning tasks. We attribute this limitation to objectives that supervise each time point independently, without explicitly training successive steps to build on one another. To address this, we instead train through the model's own latent rollout over a randomly sampled subinterval of [0, 1], decoding only at the endpoint. On ProsQA, this raises accuracy to 97% and enables performance to improve with additional integration steps. For the longer rollouts required by reasoning tasks such as Sudoku and Maze, retracting the latent state onto a sphere stabilizes the dynamics and yields substantial gains over baselines with more than three times as many parameters. Sampling multiple rollouts further improves performance when paired with a parameter-free selection score, although reliable selection remains challenging for longer answers. Together, these results establish a theoretical basis for reasoning with flows and show how rollout training, stable latent dynamics, and rollout selection help realize this capacity in practice.

Mid-prefill pruning can reduce the sequence processed by deeper transformer layers, but attention concentration alone does not certify that discarded context is dispensable. We formulate EntroPrefill as a Renyi-guided proposal mechanism coupled to explicit constraints on discarded attention mass. Sink-isolated, regularized head pooling respects grouped-query attention while exposing a quantitative trade-off between specialization and worst-head coverage. We derive a mixture-to-head deletion envelope, a computable upper bound on feasible token removal, and a finite-sample observer guarantee that remains valid when the pruning layer is selected adaptively. We then establish a conditional transformer perturbation bound with explicit sufficient Lipschitz constants and a first-token decision-margin corollary. A counterexample shows why shallow observations alone cannot imply an unconditional future-output guarantee. The systems analysis distinguishes query-head unions, physical page allocation, and KV-transfer payload, and gives an arithmetic break-even condition for pruning. This manuscript is theoretical in scope: it defines the procedure, its assumptions, and its formal limits, but does not report measured acceleration or task-accuracy preservation. Experiments are reserved for subsequent validation of the assumptions, approximation tightness, and end-to-end resource trade-offs.

In this paper we have developed a differentiable approximation of the well-known SEEPS score, which we name SoftSEEPS. This allows the training of a Machine Learning model to forecast precipitation directly. We test SoftSEEPS on the IMERG dataset (0.1 degree resolution) by training a decoder for precipitation on the latent space of a pre-trained low-resolution forecasting model. Combining SoftSEEPS and RMSE in a joint objective is possible with marginal trade-offs in either metric.

When does distribution alignment help a frozen foundation-model embedding generalize across acoustic domains? For cross-domain mosquito-species classification we report a strength-monotonic law: the stronger an encoder is on the target task, the more its unseen-domain generalization relies on a distribution-alignment (MMD) term, and the more it is harmed by domain-rebalanced sampling. Across four encoder families and a within-encoder HuBERT layer sweep (n=8), the rebalancing leg orders exactly with encoder strength (Spearman -1.000), while the MMD-benefit leg is monotonic within each stream and -0.857 pooled; fixing architecture and varying only representation strength flips the rebalancing effect from benefit to collapse. The law is actionable: a single MMD term is the sole lever on a strong encoder, so we reduce the field's default recipe to a frozen Perch 2.0 embedding, a lightweight probe, cross-entropy, one MMD, and input augmentation. The reduced recipe stays within seed noise of the full composite (BA_unseen 0.299+/-0.006 vs. 0.307+/-0.014). As boundary conditions of the same law, three community defaults (backbone fine-tuning, multi-modal fusion, and domain rebalancing) each hurt unseen-domain accuracy under a leave-domain protocol, shown with single-variable, multi-seed evidence. We present a mechanism and the recipe it explains, not a leaderboard entry.

Kernel methods are among the most powerful tools in machine learning and statistics, with a large number of successful applications. Their immense success stems from the flexible function class associated to each kernel—its reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)—which facilitates statistical analysis, as well as from their computational tractability and applicability to many domains. Multiple notions (such as characteristic, $L_p$-universal, and integrally strictly positive definite) capture the expressivity of kernels and their RKHSs and play a key role in understanding the statistical properties of kernel methods; these concepts and their relations are well-understood for bounded kernels. Even though unbounded kernels have received significant attention over the past decade (for instance, in the construction of kernel-based discrepancy and dependence measures such as the maximum mean discrepancy, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion, and the kernel Stein discrepancy), surprisingly little is known about the relations of these notions in the unbounded case. In the present paper we tackle this severe bottleneck, establishing their relations under mild assumptions.

Quantum kernel methods are leading candidates for a practical quantum advantage in machine learning, but assessing that potential requires two quantities usually reported separately: how well a kernel performs on the task, and how far its geometry departs from the classical kernels available for the same problem. We introduce a fully unsupervised, multi-objective protocol that optimises simultaneously the normalised pseudo discrepancy (NPD), a label-free proxy for anomaly detection quality, and the geometric difference (GD) to a tuned classical reference kernel, selecting models from the resulting Pareto front. We apply it to malware beaconing detection in real network traffic, using a one-class support vector machine with fidelity and projected quantum kernels over four data encodings, on simulators and on IQM's 20-qubit Garnet processor. NPD-guided selection alone finds a fidelity kernel that beats the tuned classical baseline, but with a geometric difference too small to certify the gain as quantum. Projected kernels reach far larger geometric differences; the Pareto-selected one only marginally exceeds the baseline (AUC $0.782$ versus $0.765$, $g_{C\to Q}\approx 89>\sqrt{N}$ relative to that reference kernel), still below the NPD-selected fidelity kernel ($0.840$).

We introduce EC-EarthFlow, a generative flow matching model that emulates simulations from the physical climate model EC-Earth3. The model is trained on transient simulations from EC-Earth3 (1950-2166, SSP2-4.5) to predict the day ahead temperature field from the previous days temperature as well as annual mean temperature. Predictions are made auto-regressively with rollout periods of between a month and an extended season. Using only this variable of interest, we are able to reproduce the daily variability, spatial patterns, annual cycle and long-term trend from EC-Earth3 at a substantially lower computational cost than the physical model. We demonstrate that EC-EarthFlow is stable for long inference periods, and that it can learn the physical relationships as simulated in EC-Earth3.

We develop a continuous-time deterministic policy gradient framework for reinforcement learning with reflected state dynamics, where the state process is governed by a controlled reflected stochastic differential equation on a hypercube. Under suitable regularity assumptions, we establish the connection between the value function and the Neumann Bellman equation, introduce an advantage-rate function that yields a deterministic policy gradient formula, and prove the martingale characterization theorem. Motivated by these theoretical results, we propose a continuous-time deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm for reflected stochastic systems, in which the Neumann boundary condition is imposed via either soft penalization or hard architectural constraint. We further quantify the discrepancy between the ideal continuous-time dynamics and the discretely sampled exploratory dynamics executed in practice, showing that the error decays as the time grid is refined and exploration noise vanishes. Our experiments on reservoir control problems illustrate the effectiveness of the RL framework, highlighting that boundary-aware methods substantially reduce Neumann boundary residuals and enhance learning stability.

Can we determine whether a foundation model will generalize out-of-distribution (OOD) before any target data is available? Existing diagnostics require source or target data, which rules them out before a target domain exists. Those that use the weights alone apply one statistic to every architecture, and do not separate robust models from fragile ones. We show the answer is encoded in the spectral structure of pretrained weights. Two forces shape that structure. Architecture determines how information is stored in weight matrices. Pretraining strategy determines what is rewarded. Together they set a spectral geometry that governs OOD robustness. We prove that the OOD accuracy gap is bounded by how tightly the source representations concentrate. A statistic computed from the pretrained weights alone serves as a proxy for that concentration. The direction of that proxy reverses between architecture families. We operationalize it: the direction is stable within one (architecture X strategy) combination, the finest grouping we test, which we call a cell. Pooled over 116 models spanning 7 modalities, a single statistic ranks OOD robustness weakly, because cells of opposite direction cancel. Within a cell, the statistic selected for it orders 92% of model pairs by OOD robustness in-sample. The selection does not leak the target: for each model family outside the matrix we logged the cell, metric and sign before running its OOD evaluation, and the predicted direction held in every case: EEG, genomic and protein. Acting on spectral concentration narrows the OOD gap by 24% at 87.5% ID retention. The diagnostic operates on released weights alone, so OOD robustness becomes checkable at model-selection time, before data or compute is committed to a target domain.

Token-Pruning accelerates Vision-Language Models by removing redundant visual tokens, yet its safety implications remain underexplored. In this work, we present the first comprehensive safety evaluation of Token-Pruning mechanisms and find that: most pruning strategies significantly degrade safety as pruning ratios increase, whereas Query-based Compression shows the opposite, with extreme pruning (up to 99.8%), unexpectedly improves model safety. This sharp contrast prompts a key question: How do different Token-Pruning strategies reshape model safety behavior, and is it possible to enhance safety without sacrificing acceleration? To answer this, we identify an unrecognized mechanism, termed Pruning-Induced Malicious Amplification, where removal of background tokens triggers a side effect: forcing the model's attention to collapse onto a few retained malicious anchors within the foreground, inadvertently amplifying their toxic semantics under jailbreak. To address that, we propose an inference-time and plug-and-play Safety-Aware Pruning (SAP) mechanism that counteracts such dominance via three steps: (1) identifying malicious anchors, (2) restoring pruned benign tokens, and (3) reallocating excessive attention from malicious anchors to benign tokens. Extensive experiments across three safety and four utility benchmarks demonstrate that SAP mitigates pruning-induced vulnerabilities, i.e., reducing ASR by up to 62%, without compromising efficiency or utility.

Pain perception varies substantially across individuals, making it difficult for population-based classifiers to generalise across all subjects in a dataset. One way to account for subject variability is to train personalised classifiers. In this work, we evaluate Few-Shot Learning, a sub-area of Meta-Learning, as an approach to personalisation in automated pain assessment. We re-interpret the shift from population-level to subject-level evaluation as a task-domain shift, where the observed classes remain fixed but the target subject changes. We evaluate our method on the BioVid Pain Database, the SenseEmotion Database, and the PainMonit Experimental Dataset (PMED), reaching 85.75% and 35.49% accuracy on BioVid and 82.37% and 41.88% on SenseEmotion in the binary and multi-class settings under a Leave-One-Subject-Out CV protocol respectively, and 90.47% on PMED, for which only a binary benchmark exists. Using samples to implement k-shot conditioning, the accuracies can be improved to 86.25%, 40.06%, 83.43%, 44.08%, and 91.25%, respectively. To further evaluate the effects and robustness of our method, we provide additional ablation experiments and investigate the personalisation effects. Our results suggest that support-conditioned few-shot adaptation can improve average performance under inter-subject variability.

We study online learning in market making, where, at each round, a market maker posts bid and ask prices before observing the market price and the private valuation of an incoming trader. In this setting, Maran et al. 2026 introduce a feedback model motivated by limit order books, in which the trader's valuation is revealed only if no transaction occurs. Assuming that trader valuations are drawn i.i.d. from an unknown distribution while market prices are chosen adversarially, they establish an expected regret bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$. In this work, we improve upon this guarantee by establishing a high-probability regret bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$. As a warm-up, we first consider the full-feedback setting. We introduce a discretization of the bid-ask space based on two coupled grids and combine it with Hedge to achieve the desired regret rate. Building on these ideas, we then address the substantially weaker feedback induced by a limit order book and develop an algorithm that achieves the same guarantee. Finally, we investigate the limits of learnability in fully adversarial environments, where the valuations may vary arbitrarily as well. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that when both market prices and trader valuations are chosen adversarially, sublinear regret is impossible even under full feedback, thereby motivating our stochastic assumption on the valuations.

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) commonly rely on inertial navigation systems (INS) aided by Doppler velocity logs (DVLs) for reliable underwater navigation. Accurate DVL velocity estimation is therefore essential for successful operation. Recent learning-based methods have demonstrated improved DVL velocity estimation, particularly under degraded measurement conditions. However, their training objectives typically rely on conventional regression losses that are highly sensitive to large residuals and corrupted observations. Additionally, they do not explicitly account for the physical consistency and measurement uncertainty associated with the underlying sensing process. To address these limitations, this paper introduces navigation-aware loss (NAViLoss), a robust and uncertainty-aware objective function for learning-based AUV velocity estimation. NAViLoss jointly penalizes the velocity-estimation residual in the navigation-state domain and the beam-consistency residual in the DVL measurement domain. Its bounded formulation limits the influence of large residuals, while an adaptive mechanism regulates the uncertainty in beam geometry. Furthermore, NAViLoss is integrated with a DeepONet architecture to form a novel NAVi-DeepONet model for seamless estimation of an underwater vehicle's velocity. Lastly, our model is evaluated using approximately 10,000m of semi-synthetic AUV experimental data collected during multiple real-world sea trials. Experimental results demonstrate a 44% improvement in velocity-estimation accuracy compared with conventional and learning-based baselines. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of navigation-aware and uncertainty-adaptive loss design for robust learning-based underwater velocity estimation.

Structured recovery phenomena, such as restricted isometry properties in compressed sensing, have shown that high-dimensional objects can often be reconstructed from remarkably low-dimensional linear measurements. This work develops an analogous recovery framework for low-rank signed measures on $\mathbb{R}^2$, defined here as measures that can be expressed as finite sums of product measures with one-dimensional factors. The framework is based on linear operators, termed "silhouette operators," that map a measure to a fixed finite collection of one-dimensional linear pushforwards. The main results show that a suitably chosen collection of $2k$ projected marginals suffices to identify every compactly supported rank-$\le k$ signed measure, that this number is optimal, and that the projection directions cannot be chosen arbitrarily. The framework is also extended to higher-dimensional sums of product measures by establishing sufficient conditions under which collections of pairwise marginals identify the full model. Building on this framework, a computationally efficient estimator, termed "silhouette mixture estimation" (SME), is introduced for constructing a low-rank empirical measure from data by matching its one-dimensional projected marginals to the corresponding empirical marginals in Wasserstein distance. When combined with one-dimensional density estimators, SME yields an efficient nonparametric density estimator that performs strongly relative to a range of parametric, nonparametric, and deep-learning baselines in settings of moderate dimension and sample size.

Adaptive rollout methods for group-relative reinforcement learning typically allocate a fixed per-update budget across prompts. We instead study how to coordinate a finite rollout budget over the entire training horizon. We formulate this problem using a concave surrogate utility of cumulative prompt exposure and introduce CERO, an online primal dual scheduler for prompt admission and budget pacing. In our experiments, each admitted prompt receives a fixed-size response group. CERO instead adapts which prompts are selected, how often they are revisited across rounds, and how many groups are generated in each round. A compact Fenchel representation linearizes the dependence on cumulative exposure, while projected online gradient descent updates prompt-specific supporting slopes and a shared budget price using reward-variation feedback and budget deviations. We establish pathwise guarantees for the surrogate allocation objective against fixed-rate and same-path time-varying benchmarks, with explicit terms for proxy discrepancy and rate variation. Under matched training-response budgets, CERO attains the highest avg@16 macro-average on each of three backbones across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Mechanistic analyses link CERO's prompt choices to within-group reward contrast, while multi-seed ablations show gains from adaptive pacing over both uniform and preset spending schedules.

Self-supervised anomaly detection is a promising paradigm for medical ultrasound, as normal images are often easier to obtain than exhaustive annotations of all possible pathologies. However, most existing evaluations are limited to a single anatomy or task, making it unclear whether models learn a robust notion of normal ultrasound appearance or only a source-specific representation. We introduce the SADUSI benchmark, a multi-source ultrasound dataset designed to train and evaluate anomaly detection methods across a broad range of anatomical regions, views, and acquisition protocols. The goal of SADUSI is to provide a diverse normal ultrasound distribution and a benchmark for visible structural anomalies that can be assessed from single images. We evaluate representative self-supervised anomaly detection methods and find that current approaches struggle in this setting. In particular, reconstruction-based diffusion methods such as AnoDDPM and DeCo-Diff achieve pixel-level AUROC values of 0.56-0.72 and maximum F1 scores of 0.10-0.26, indicating limited separation of pathology from normal image regions. Feature-based PatchCore variants perform better, reaching pixel-level AUROC values of 0.76-0.83, but remain limited with maximum F1 scores of 0.14-0.40. These findings suggest that broad multi-source ultrasound anomaly detection remains an open challenge and that SADUSI can serve as a resource for developing methods that generalize beyond anatomy-specific settings.

We study the accuracy of Gauss-Newton curvature in ridge-regularized nonlinear least squares. Under local regularity and persistence of level-set curvature magnitude along an exact-fit section, we prove uniform coexistence of two curvature regimes. Global minimizers exist, and every global minimizer has relative Hessian error below $(1+\sqrt2)/8$, while the same low-cost set contains a point with an indefinite Hessian and relative error at least $15/8$. One positive ridge cap works for all independent center and label perturbations in fixed neighborhoods and every positive ridge weight up to the cap. These neighborhoods do not shrink as the ridge weight tends to zero. A pointwise certificate based on the current prediction level set controls the normal, mixed, and tangent parts of the Hessian correction. We prove a sharp relative-error bound over the stated pointwise class when the prediction map and ridge vary. Analytic examples describe the roles of output alignment, curvature orientation, and persistence. A separate structural result gives full Jacobian row rank throughout low-cost sets and exact interpolation near a rank-deficient reference.

Unsupervised anomaly detection, which learns only from normal images, is a central task in medical image analysis and remains an open problem. Reconstruction-based methods pass an image through an encoder-decoder network trained on normal data and detect anomalies from the residual between the image and its reconstruction. This works only if the information passed from the encoder to the decoder is limited; otherwise the network learns an identity mapping and reconstructs anomalies too. This limit is usually imposed through architectural choices, tuned per dataset, that cannot be stated in bits. We introduce the quasi-binarizing (QB) layer, which squashes each latent element into [0, 1] and adds Laplace noise of scale 1/epsilon. Each element is then epsilon-locally differentially private, and the mutual information between an image and its reconstruction is bounded by a quantity that depends only on epsilon and the number of QB elements, whatever the encoder and decoder. Placing a QB layer on every encoder-decoder path, including all skip connections, we build QBAE, a seven-level attention U-Net with 32,768 QB elements. On the seven datasets of the MedIAnomaly benchmark, QBAE with one architecture and one configuration reaches a mean image-level AUROC of 0.828, the highest among methods that do not adapt to each dataset, and the best reported results on BraTS2021 (AUROC 0.911, pixel-level AP 0.838). The noise is kept at test time, so that every reconstruction satisfies the bound. Without input corruption, the bottleneck alone prevents identity collapse (mean AUROC 0.805 vs. 0.590). Code is available at https://github.com/hanaokalog/MedIAnomalyQB.

Wavelet-based financial forecasters typically use the transform only to denoise, or reduce it to a single spectral snapshot at the forecast origin, and the convolution that produces the coefficients is usually bilateral, so it can read past the forecast origin. DSTNet instead retains the recent evolution of filter-bank magnitudes as a causal Dynamic Spectral Trajectory, built from seven trailing technical indicators over a twenty-day lookback with a one-sided Morlet-derived filter bank and an explicit burn-in for the left-boundary transient. A factorized Scale-Temporal Spectral Transformer attends along the time and filter-bank axes separately, a learned gate fuses the spectral branch with a CNN-BiLSTM, and horizon-specific gates emit one, three, five, and ten day forecasts in a single pass. We evaluate seven equity indices and gold under a common expanding-window protocol and an untouched one-year hold-out, against nine learned baselines and a random-walk persistence benchmark. Under MAE and MAPE, persistence is the strongest of the ten fixed competitors in 29 of the 32 series-horizon cells and DSTNet is the only model below it in every cell, by 0.7 to 0.9 percent at one day and 3.4 to 4.5 percent at ten days. At one day, paired testing favours DSTNet against the weaker learned baselines but is inconclusive against persistence and the strongest learned forecasters. A downstream allocation diagnostic does not support an equity-timing advantage on any of the seven indices.

DP-SGD protects training data by adding Gaussian noise to clipped gradients. The amount of noise is usually chosen by running a numerical privacy accountant inside a search. We study DP-SGD with random allocation, where each epoch uses every record once, at a randomly chosen step. For this setting we give a one-line formula that bounds the accuracy of every membership inference attack (MIA) on the trained model. With $M$ steps per epoch, $E$ epochs and noise multiplier $\sigma$, and with membership and non-membership equally likely a priori, the attack accuracy is at most $\frac12+\frac14\sqrt{(1+(e^{1/\sigma^2}-1)/M)^E-1}$. The formula comes from the chi-square divergence between a Gaussian distribution and a Gaussian mixture that dominates random allocation. It is interpretable and gives $\sigma$ in about a microsecond. Where applicable, our formula needs at most about half the noise of the state-of-the-art closed-form bound. To measure how close the bound is, we also derive an exact expression for the attack accuracy of these two distributions and evaluate it numerically. Calibrating to this exact expression requires $13.0\%$ to $20.2\%$ less noise than the formula in our main experiments, and since it is exact, no accountant that knows only $M$, $E$ and $\sigma$ can certify a smaller $\sigma$. In training, the resulting $\sigma$ outperforms the formula and matches a published accountant in test accuracy. It is found in seconds and certified in minutes, whereas every search we ran with that accountant took longer or returned at least $0.62\%$ more noise. We show that MIAs on the trained models stay below the bound.

Post-training adapts language models in non-stationary environments. Practitioners monitor representation health with RankMe and related spectral statistics, often assuming that rank falls when representations degrade. We show that this assumption is unsafe for LLM post-training. In a controlled study of Qwen3-0.6B with four degradation modes and three seeds, data duplication worsens held-out loss by 75% relative to healthy while increasing both original and centred RankMe; the latter changes by 13.5 pooled standard deviations. Covariance effective rank rises to nearly twice its healthy value. This failure is spectral dispersion rather than collapse, so a one-sided monitor rates the worst checkpoint as the healthiest. By contrast, a learning-rate misconfiguration lowers centred RankMe and k95, while uncentred RankMe is inconsistent across seeds. Direction is therefore a property of the regime-statistic pair and cannot be fixed by recalibration alone. We also distinguish two often-conflated statistics: RankMe normalises singular values, whereas covariance effective rank normalises eigenvalues. On raw intermediate-layer states in the pretrained model, massive activations pin the latter near 1 out of dimension d while RankMe retains usable range. We then test a two-sided, multichannel sequential monitor with separate calibration and test data. In a pre-registered shared-prefix, leave-one-seed-out evaluation, it detects all three damage regimes in every fold 10 to 60 steps after the fork and separates dispersion from downward-rank damage by firing direction. However, it never precedes held-out probe loss, and calibration with two seeds produces false alarms on the held-out healthy seed. Spectral monitoring can diagnose failure regimes, but it does not warn earlier than held-out loss, and validity claims require held-out healthy data.

Photonic quantum computing has recently emerged as a promising platform for hybrid quantum machine learning due to its native realization of linear-optical circuits and the computational complexity of boson sampling. However, despite growing interest in quantum methods for finance, the influence of photonic circuit design choices on predictive performance remains largely unexplored. Existing studies typically evaluate a single architecture, leaving the broader photonic design space unexamined. In this work, we present Q-PhotoMarket, a systematic design space exploration (DSE) framework for photonic hybrid quantum neural networks (HQNNs) applied to financial market prediction. We explore over 5,000 valid photonic configurations spanning input photon states, circuit architectures, entangling models, and measurement strategies across their compatible computation spaces, for U.S., Indian, and cryptocurrency markets. To improve search efficiency, the exhaustive exploration is complemented with Bayesian optimization. We further incorporate threshold calibration and prediction-collapse diagnostics to enable reliable evaluation under increasingly imbalanced return thresholds. Experimental results show that systematic exploration of more than 5,000 photonic HQNN configurations reveals consistent architectural patterns across financial markets, identifies robust high-performing designs, and demonstrates competitive performance relative to classical machine learning baselines.

How can we verify whose music contributed to an AI-generated output? This paper demonstrates how input-based attribution can provide verifiable evidence of which audio sources were used in a generation and whether they shaped the output. To do so, we condition the generation solely on audio without any text input, then trace the inputs behind each output, and establish their musical effect. In prompt adherence tests and controlled input swaps, the stems generated by our generator, MixAudio, follow the prompt audio in timbre and the context audio in harmony. Yet these outputs may still reproduce training data not supplied as inputs. We therefore audit memorization with our musical version identification model, musicDNA, and find few reproductions outside the input records. On human-judged cases within the flagged pool, it achieves higher precision and recall than the other tested memorization detectors. The two evaluations suggest that input records and output analysis provide complementary evidence for attribution, on which rights-holder reporting and compensation can draw as the AI music economy takes shape. Audio examples are available at https://neutune.github.io/attr2027demo/

Anomaly detection on small and unbalanced datasets remains very challenging in machine learning, although this scenario is common in several domains, including healthcare, cybersecurity, finance, and energy. Data augmentation and generative AI may mitigate training-data scarcity, but they often fall short because anomalies are, by definition, unpredictable, rare, and highly diverse events compared to high-probability normal data. Overfitting to pseudo-anomalies, model collapse, high-dimensional data, uninterpretable black-box models, and validation challenges are typical issues limiting their practical applicability. In this context, quantum machine learning may provide a promising and more sustainable avenue because it can enable more interpretable models with far fewer trainable parameters and smaller datasets, implementable on energy-efficient quantum hardware. Here, we propose a novel two-step hybrid classical–quantum architecture for sequential data and test it on a realistic scenario in the global energy-transition domain, i.e., automated anomaly detection in large-scale photovoltaic plants. The achieved generalization capability and competitive prediction accuracy may pave the way for new hybrid learning models able to exploit the continuously increasing power of cloud-available and more sustainable quantum accelerators integrated with more traditional energy-hungry High Performance Computing resources.

The evaluation of coding agents generally strives to be as realistic as possible. In our study, we collect 4,782 agent sessions of real software engineers in JetBrains IDEs, which we call Production Sessions. Since our subject is interactive agents, we study the sessions with at least three user messages (33% of the sample). These long sessions differ from issue-derived benchmark tasks in two ways: (i) user requests span a far wider mix of task types - questions about the project's code, planning, review, refactoring, execution - and (ii) users switch between types throughout a session. Long-session samples from three public interaction corpora exhibit markedly different Task Flows (the distributions of session lengths, task types, and type-to-type transitions), so no single interaction distribution is universally realistic: benchmarks should name a target use case and calibrate to measurements from it. We present SWE-TaskFlow, an approach for transforming any issue-derived benchmark: it preserves the verified tasks and tests while steering the interaction toward a target Task Flow through prompt splitting and verifiable repository QA, with a TaskFlow Alignment Score (TFAS) for selecting among generated trajectories. In a pilot on 700 SWE-Bench Pro tasks, solving the task sequentially in several steps approximately doubles agent cost without a stable change in resolve rate: the interaction protocol itself is an important dimension of evaluation.

Tool calling, invoking external tools on demand, is central to agentic LLMs, yet the mechanism that decides whether a model calls a tool or responds directly remains poorly understood. Agentic prompts are long and heavily scaffolded, combining role instructions, tool schemas, format templates, and the user's request across hundreds of tokens, creating a noisy, highly entangled context in which no single controllable variable for mechanistic analysis is obvious. To obtain such a variable, we propose a method that converts complex agentic prompts into minimal contrastive pairs in which a single request verb determines the tool-call decision: replacing an execution-verb (e.g., write) with an analysis-verb (e.g., discuss) reliably flips the decision, suggesting it is mediated by a compact internal state. We construct 500 such paired prompts across Python, Java, and C++ (300 for mechanistic analysis, 200 held out for evaluation). We trace the decision to a vector, $\mu_\Delta$, that is both causally necessary and sufficient and generalizes beyond the discovery prompts to native multi-turn $\tau^2$-Bench trajectories and verb-free requests. Behavioral ablations show that the scaffold establishes a tool-call prior; Transcoder decomposition then reveals that analysis verbs suppress this prior through features signaling that tool use is unnecessary, whereas execution verbs largely leave it intact. Downstream scaffold-reading attention heads and MLP features read out the resulting state, and the same mechanism recurs across seven models from the Qwen, Mistral, and Granite families. Our code is available at https://github.com/XijieGo/MI4ToolCalling.