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Monday 28 September

Machine Learning

ORPG: Reconciling Multiple Reward Objectives through Objective-wise Policy Gradients

Multi-reward policy optimization requires a joint update that reflects both the learning signals and the intended relationships among objectives. We introduce Objective-wise Reconciled Policy Gradient (ORPG), which constructs a separate clipped policy objective for each reward and reconciles the resulting gradients into one policy update. For compatible gradients, a cosine-dependent interpolation coordinates their contributions through a partially normalized reference while preserving the norm of their sum. We characterize this update as the unique solution of a spherical directional compromise. For conflicting gradients, projection follows the task's priorities. We evaluate the same compatible rule in helpfulness–safety alignment and correctness–cost optimization for mathematical reasoning. ORPG substantially improves average Useful and Harmless scores over the strongest external baseline on each axis. In mathematics, it achieves the highest average full-budget accuracy and three-budget hypervolume among the compared methods, with more accurate and shorter responses than the initial policy. Component comparisons and training dynamics show the larger contribution of compatible coordination and a complementary benefit from conflict handling. These results support gradient reconciliation for objectives with equal standing and for objectives with an explicit priority.
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All authors Shicheng Fang, Yiwen Zhao, Wenbo Tian, Jiahao Lu, Yining Zheng, Yuxin Wang, Xipeng Qiu

Machine Learning

Inspector: Conversational and Lightweight Analyzer of Analog Circuit Layouts Using LLM and CNNs

The integration of artificial intelligence into computer-aided design frameworks has sparked a shift in the design of analog integrated circuits (ICs), transitioning the field from using manual and algorithmic-based solutions to adopting automated and intelligent paradigms. In this scenario, the GDSII file represents the industry-standard database containing the ultimate and most accurate source of information of the analog circuit, encapsulating the complex physical geometries and parasitic realities that define tape out performance. This paper proposes a novel framework that combines fine-tuned LLMs and CNNs to analyze GDSII files of analog circuits, enabling a conversational interface between the tool and the designers. Experimental results using thousands of analog designs across four realistic tasks demonstrate that the proposed solution outperforms state-of-the-art general-purpose massive VLMs by a significant margin (up to 81%), thus providing a lightweight solution to the problem of GDSII analysis.
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All authors Abril Cano Castro, Giuseppe Chiari, Michele Piccoli, Federico Viola, Davide Zoni

Machine Learning

Teach to Learn: Hint Annealing for Self-improving LLM Reasoning

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) improves language-model reasoning by comparing verified rewards among multiple solution rollouts for each query. However, difficult training queries can yield only incorrect rollouts, leaving GRPO with no reward contrast or learning signal. Prior hint-based methods construct auxiliary hints from solution evidence and use them to re-solve failed queries, recovering learning signal. Yet the resulting trajectories are typically treated as ordinary solution trajectories despite being generated under an assisted condition unavailable at evaluation. We discover hinted reward shift: recovered reward contrast can concentrate policy updates on hinted trajectories, limiting improvement without hints. This also creates a trade-off: increasing hinted trajectories can accelerate early learning but intensify reward shift later. To address this problem, we propose HATCH (Hint-Annealed Self-Teaching), an online single-policy framework that learns from both generating and using its own hints to improve reasoning without assistance. To mitigate hinted reward shift, we introduce online weighting to anneal the contribution of hinted trajectories. However, learning to generate hints can conflict with improving query solving. We therefore use gradient projection to remove the opposing component of hint-generation updates. Together, these designs support self-improvement by enabling the policy to create learning opportunities for itself and turn them into stronger reasoning without hints. We evaluate our method on mathematical reasoning benchmarks and outperform state-of-the-art methods by 1.02 pp on Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct, 2.84 pp on Qwen3-1.7B, and 4.32 pp on Qwen3-8B.
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All authors Zile Wang, Zijian Li, Haodong Wang, Jian Liu, Qianli Liu, Lucas Muli, Blaze Chen, Song Guo

Machine Learning

See it, Say it, Sorted: Mechanistic Diagnosis and Parameter-Space Mitigation of Emergent Misalignment in LLMs

Safety-aligned LLMs can exhibit emergent misalignment (EM): narrow domain adaptation unexpectedly triggers catastrophic safety failures across unrelated domains. Prior static analyses leave training dynamics unmapped, while existing defenses rely on heuristics that degrade utility. We present a dynamic, second-order geometric study of EM. Tracking training trajectories reveals that directional Hessian curvature concentrates sharply on semantic pivot tokens. Grassmannian projections show that, in most settings, harmful-safe gap widens mainly because safe-gradient overlap declines. Leveraging these insights, we introduce a parameter-level Geometric Mitigation Framework that orthogonally projects empirical harmful gradient subspace out of parameter updates. On Qwen2.5-14B-IT, our defense suppresses free-generation EM by up to 80.0%; across the other three of four open-weight instruction-based model families (3B–20B), where single-layer behavioral EM is already near zero, teacher-forced evaluation shows same harmful subspace controls the conditional support of frozen EM responses. Crucially, these diagnostics unmask the illusion of behavioral safety: the same subspace remains measurable and steerable in models where behavioral EM is near zero. Code: https://github.com/WeiqiaoQUE/mechanistic-emergent-misalignment.
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All authors Weiqiao Que, Ruizhe Li, Chengyu Wang, Dakan Wang, Emine Yilmaz, Xiaofeng He

Machine Learning

Cyclostationary Phase Conditioning for Medical Time Series Diffusion

Many physiological time series, such as cardiac and brain recordings, exhibit cyclostationarity: their statistics vary periodically with an underlying cycle phase. Corruption from motion, poor contact, and physiological interference obscures morphology needed for diagnosis, making signal restoration essential. Existing diffusion approaches condition on corrupted observations alone and must learn cyclic structure implicitly. We instead propose two inductive biases which encode cyclostationarity: a shift-covariant wavelet representation and dense per-sample phase conditioning inferred from the corrupted input. We further introduce a training-free cyclostationarity index that quantifies phase structure and predicts when phase conditioning will help. Finally, we propose antithetic coupling of reverse trajectories to reduce sampling variance while achieving comparable performance with fivefold fewer network evaluations. Across modalities, our results show that explicitly encoding measurable cyclic structure improves physiological time-series restoration.
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All authors Samuel Ruiperez-Campillo, Michele Copetti, Jorge da Silva Goncalves, Sonia Laguna, Thomas Hofmann, Julia E. Vogt

Machine Learning

ALICE: In-context, Zero-shot, Mutual Information Estimation

Estimating mutual information (MI) from samples is a central objective in a variety of scientific fields. Modern neural estimators are accurate in the large-data regime, but they fall short when data is scarce, and each must be fit anew for every distribution under study. Current estimators are moreover tied to specific data types. These constraints limit their adoption in many applications where per-distribution training is impractical and sample sizes are small. We present ALICE, a foundation model that removes per-distribution training, while achieving competitive estimation accuracy. Trained exclusively on a broad family of synthetic distributions, ALICE acts as an in-context estimator of rectified-flow velocity fields: conditioned on samples of an unseen distribution, it estimates that distribution's velocity field without any explicit training. MI is then obtained through a fixed identity that integrates the squared difference between the joint and conditional fields. We validate ALICE on a standard, challenging benchmark and apply it in three domains, biology, genetics, and neuroscience, whose data the model has never seen. For the first time, we show that a single model closes the gap with neural estimators trained separately for each distribution, while natively supporting different data dimensionality and sample cardinality, enabling zero-shot MI analysis across scientific domains.
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Machine Learning

Adjoint Guidance Flow: Amortized Critic Guidance for VLA Policies

Flow-based Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies are typically trained by behavior cloning and thus do not explicitly optimize long-term task return. Critic guidance steers generation toward higher-value actions, but existing methods differentiate the critic through a one-step surrogate of the sampler and back-propagate a critic ensemble at every flow step. In contrast, here we propose Adjoint Guidance Flow (AGF), which amortizes trajectory-aware critic guidance into a lightweight guidance network while preserving the pretrained VLA policy. Specifically, we formulate critic-guided flow generation as a deterministic optimal control problem, whose optimal guidance is a costate that carries the terminal critic gradient back through the remaining flow, and regress the guidance network onto this costate while keeping both the VLA and critic frozen. This design provides favorable memory and throughput scaling during training, and inference needs one guidance-network forward pass per step, without the critic ensemble, back-propagation, or adjoint computation. Across LIBERO, RoboCasa, and LIBERO-Pro, AGF consistently improves pretrained VLAs, remains competitive with critic-guidance and policy-fine-tuning baselines, and is the most robust method when a single guidance strength is deployed across tasks. Compared with QGF, AGF runs $3.6\times$ faster per guidance step with $7.0\times$ fewer parameters, with comparable and even better performance, showing that critic guidance can be trajectory-aware and lightweight.
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All authors Jeongsol Kim, Youngjun Jun, Kyumin Choi, Youngmin Kim, Seonghyun Jin, Sunwoo Park, Jangho Park, Kwanyoung Kim, Jong Chul Ye

Machine Learning

XMatch: Enhancing Covariate-Aware Time Series Forecasting through Tree-Structured Exogenous Matching

Future exogenous variables provide valuable information for forecasting endogenous time series. Existing covariate-aware methods primarily learn the direct influence of exogenous variables on endogenous variables. However, these effects can be complex and change with the pattern of the exogenous variables, making them difficult to capture. Beyond this perspective, we observe that a given exogenous pattern often co-occurs with only a small set of endogenous response patterns. These associations motivate a strategy that matches future and historical exogenous patterns and uses the corresponding endogenous patterns to enhance forecasting. However, in real-world forecasting scenarios with multiple exogenous variables, each exogenous variable provides a distinct dimension for matching, creating a dilemma for this strategy between precise matching and sufficient historical support. To bridge this gap, we propose XMatch (EXogenous MATCHing), a covariate-aware forecasting model that realizes the aforementioned strategy through a tree-structured matching process that adaptively adjusts the number of exogenous variables used as matching conditions. Specifically, we first introduce the ProtoTree Creator, which organizes historical correspondences between exogenous and endogenous patterns into a ProtoTree, whose deeper levels incorporate additional exogenous variables for matching. For forecasting, we then design the ProtoTree Matcher, which uses future exogenous variables to query the ProtoTree and adaptively determines how many exogenous variables to use for matching based on exogenous pattern similarity and historical support. Finally, the matched endogenous patterns are used as explicit historical evidence to enhance forecasting. Extensive experiments on 12 real-world datasets demonstrate that XMatch outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.
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All authors Ziyang Zhang, Hanyin Cheng, Xiangfei Qiu, Yang Shu, Bin Yang, Chenjuan Guo

Machine Learning

Don't Forget! Decomposing the Training Dynamics of Memorization in Language Models

Memorization has been proposed as a mechanism to explain how language models fit the tail of their training distributions, but its training dynamics are not understood well. In this work, we take a fine-grained look at memorization by decomposing the loss trajectory of memorized sequences over training and model parameters. Across the Pythia family, we study memorization of duplicated training sequences (recitation) and rare ones (recollection). We find that memorization in both cases is characterized by sequence-level gradient alignment, though recitation suffers from misalignment with other training influences which causes forgetting, explaining the necessity for higher duplication of these examples. We further show that the lower model layers are the most involved in memorization and forgetting. Predicting memorization, our decomposition improves over a cross-entropy baseline, especially in larger models and early in training. Intervening on a small set of highly influential parameters we are able to ablate memorization in the final model. Together, these findings advance our understanding of how memorization develops during training and offer insights for predicting and intervening on it.
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All authors Florian Eichin, Philipp Mondorf, Andrei Mircea, Yupei Du, Barbara Plank, Michael A. Hedderich

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

JazzSAMBA: A Synchronous and Asynchronous Multi-take Band Audio Dataset of Jazz Standards for Live Music Models

Machine learning has made strong progress on music tasks, both as assistive tools and as creative partners. However, most systems train on multitrack corpora that emphasize pop and rock. Jazz, with improvisation at the core of its practice, still lacks a well-annotated corpus of clean per-stem combo recordings on standards. We introduce JazzSAMBA (Jazz Synchronous and Asynchronous Multi-take Band Audio) to fill this gap: the first originally recorded jazz-combo multitrack dataset of standards with asynchronous (overdubbed) and synchronous (live ensemble) protocols, preferred and alternate takes chosen by the musicians, and timed annotations for bars, chords, sections, and soloists. JazzSAMBA covers 76 standards by eight musicians on drums, bass, piano, trumpet, and saxophone, with per-stem audio, mixtures, and MIDI. It can support chart-conditioned accompaniment, combo source separation, and form-aware music information retrieval. We demonstrate the dataset on two tasks: a jazz combo source-separation baseline and a chart-conditioned accompaniment ablation. The dataset, code, and samples are linked from the project demo page.
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All authors Phillip Long, Jacob Nguyen, Jace Hosto, Gage Hosto, Jett Takazawa, Fares Nofal, Sebastian Stade, Nithya Shikarpur, Julian McAuley, Cheng-Zhi Anna Huang, Stephen Brade, Aleksandra Teng Ma

Machine Learning

Sample What You Say: Aligning Language Models to Sample the Distributions They State

Language models are increasingly used to sample from a specified distribution, for instance, to simulate survey respondents or generate synthetic data. Instruction-tuned models can state such a distribution correctly and still fail to sample from it. Prompting and changes to decoding reduce this mismatch only partly, which motivates training with policy optimization. Group relative policy optimization (GRPO) is a natural fit for this problem because it already samples a group of rollouts per prompt, and the group's empirical distribution can be compared with the target. However, scoring the group as a whole gives every rollout the same reward. Group-relative centering then sets all advantages to zero, and the model receives no learning signal. To give each rollout its own signal, we introduce the witness advantage, a per-rollout advantage derived from maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). It trains a model to match a target distribution over a finite set of outcomes. The MMD between the model's distribution and the target has a witness function that measures how over- or under-produced each outcome is. Each rollout's advantage estimates the negative witness at its outcome, so a rollout is rewarded for an outcome the group under-produces and penalized for one it over-produces. The witness advantage is computed in closed form from the group's outcome counts, and we use it as the reward in GRPO. On unseen target distributions, training with the witness advantage substantially reduces the total variation distance to the target while largely preserving the model's general capabilities.
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Machine Learning

Audit the Scaffold, Not the Checkpoint: A Stationarity Dichotomy for Recursive Self-Improvement in Agentic Coding

An auditor who checks whether a system's weights are frozen is checking the wrong thing. Our stationarity dichotomy says that iterative self-modification hits strict diminishing returns whenever the agent's reachable set of edits stays fixed, and can escape only if that set expands. Rewriting scaffolding (tools, verifiers, decomposition) expands what an agent reaches without touching a weight, so frozen weights buy an eventual ceiling but no stationarity along the way. The criterion also separates three regimes usually merged: search within a fixed class, test-time training that raises the ceiling itself, and scaffold rewriting between them. Audit the scaffold, not the checkpoint. The same ceiling binds sideways. Best-of-$k$ orchestration realizes the best worker's ceiling exactly: width buys rate, not budget. Re-consulting a fixed pool has a horizon computable in advance, decided by the pool alone, and the one arrangement that would beat it, a weighted vote, needs diversity real workers lack: on 30 same-family workers the failure overlap sits at its maximum, and a majority fails 23/55 (42%) of tasks. We obtain the criterion by reading refinement as gradient boosting on the residual error between draft and target, a patch or git diff, and then measuring where that reading breaks: patches compose instead of standing beside each other to be voted on, and failures overlap. What we measure is saturation. Per-round improvement decays toward zero on SWE-bench, and churn decays geometrically across 401 production sessions, a shape shared with a pre-AI human baseline that establishes the regime without identifying its cause. Both breaks are engineering choices rather than laws about code, so together they specify a harness worth building.
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Machine Learning

Drug-Target Interaction Prediction via Hierarchical Sequential Cross-Attention over Chemical and Protein Language Models

Predicting Drug-Target Interactions~(DTIs) is a central task in computational drug discovery, with direct applications in virtual screening, drug repurposing, and therapeutic candidate prioritization. Although recent deep learning methods have improved DTI prediction, many sequence-based models still process drugs and proteins independently and only combine their representations at a late prediction stage. This limits their ability to explicitly model cross-molecular dependencies between chemical substructures and protein sequence regions. In this paper, we propose a sequence-only DTI prediction architecture that combines two pre-trained language models, ChemBERTa for drug SMILES strings and ESM-2 for protein amino acid sequences, with a hierarchical interaction module. The proposed model first extracts contextual representations using pre-trained encoders, then applies 1D convolutional layers to condense local sequence patterns, followed by a sequential bidirectional cross-attention mechanism inspired by the induced-fit view of molecular recognition. Finally, attention-based pooling constructs fixed-size interaction-aware vectors for binary prediction. Experiments on BIOSNAP, Davis, and BindingDB show that the proposed model achieves the best performance on BIOSNAP, matches the best AUROC on Davis, and remains competitive on BindingDB while using only 25.2 million trainable parameters. Ablation results confirm the contribution of both the CNN and cross-attention modules, and cold-start experiments indicate promising generalization to unseen proteins and drugs.
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All authors Khadidja Henni, Hamza Abdelali, Abdelkrim Aries, Neila Mezghani, Brigitte Vannier, Sara Magdouli, Lina Abou-Abbas

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Depth-Averaged Avalanche Dynamics

Accurate prediction of avalanche motion is essential for hazard assessment in mountainous terrain. This study develops and evaluates a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for the Savage-Hutter model of depth-averaged granular flow, progressing from 1D analytical verification to 2D experimental validation. First, three 1D problems of increasing complexity were verified against the analytical solution: height prediction with prescribed velocity, velocity prediction with prescribed height, and coupled prediction of both fields using the conservative formulation. The decoupled tests accurately reconstructed the spatio-temporal evolution of each field when the other was prescribed. The coupled formulation learned both fields without prescribed data, achieving mean height and velocity RMSEs of 0.043 and 0.079 in non-dimensional units. A hyperparameter sensitivity study evaluated the effects of network depth, width, collocation density, learning rate, and epochs. The framework was then extended to 2D and validated against laboratory experiments of a cylindrical granular pile collapsing on an inclined plane, with TITAN2D providing numerical comparisons. Purely physics-based training converged to the trivial zero solution; augmenting the loss with 10 sparse training points from final deposit profiles produced a physics-informed, data-assisted hybrid framework. Peak flow depth, depth-averaged velocity, RMSE, and wetted-area IoU evaluated global and local agreement. Global height RMSE ranged from 2.7 to 6.7 mm across four experimental cases, while mean wetted-area IoU ranged from 69 to 81 %, demonstrating consistent performance across variations in pile mass and slope angle.
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Machine Learning

Muon Sublates the Edge of Stability in LLM Pretraining

Muon is increasingly used for language-model pretraining, yet its large-step dynamics are not captured by the classical edge-of-stability (EoS) picture of gradient descent (GD). In GD, loss neutrality, equal-magnitude update reversal, and marginal stability meet at a single learning-rate-dependent edge. We show that Muon breaks this coupling. For stochastic no-momentum Muon, we derive a coherence-corrected conditional loss-neutral boundary $2\rho_b/\eta$, while temporal alignment follows a separate geometry. Controlled experiments show that loss balance and temporal alignment respond differently to learning rate and batch size. Across our language model experiments, the 130M Llama-like LLM runs exhibit loss-boundary tracking with weak negative alignment, whereas the studied 1B LLM configuration shows stronger partial cancellation; in both settings, directions remain far from coherent reversal while training continues to improve. These results support a split EoS picture for Muon: a stochastic loss-neutral edge survives, but it is not accompanied by a universal temporal-direction signature. The source code for reproducing the experiments can be found in https://github.com/cyzebra/Muon-Sublates-the-Edge-of-Stability-in-LLM-Pretraining
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All authors Yanzhe Chen, Qifang Zhao, Xiaoxiao Xu, Fanghui Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Don't Throw Away the Tail: Action Upcycling for Policy Acceleration

Modern robot policies predict a chunk of future actions from a single observation, execute only a prefix, and discard the rest before replanning. Choosing the length of this prefix, the execution horizon, poses a trade-off between reactivity and efficiency. A short horizon keeps the policy reactive to the environment, but requires frequent policy calls. Recent test-time methods adaptively select the horizon for each chunk, but they either read model internals, where the signal must be chosen for each architecture, or draw extra samples, which adds cost. We propose Action Upcycling, a training-free algorithm that reuses actions the policy would otherwise discard, without accessing model internals or drawing extra samples. We find that discarded actions stay close to their replanned versions as long as the action velocity remains smooth. Action Upcycling therefore extends the execution horizon up to the point where the velocity begins to fluctuate. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world manipulation tasks show that Action Upcycling reduces policy calls by 1.2-1.7x with no loss in success rate, across multiple Vision-Language-Action Models (VLAs) and even a World Action Model (WAM). It applies to any chunked policy at negligible cost and is orthogonal to other policy acceleration methods such as few-step sampling and streaming action decoding, opening a new axis for policy acceleration.
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All authors Taesung Kwon, Jangho Park, Sunwoo Park, Youngmin Kim, Seonghyun Jin, Youngjun Jun, Kyumin Choi, Jong Chul Ye

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

SincDPNet: Interpretable Raw-Waveform Bathroom Activity Recognition for Assistive Living

Bathroom acoustic-event recognition can support ambient assisted living in settings where continuous video monitoring is undesirable. However, practical deployment requires models that are compact, interpretable, and robust to changes in the recording environment. This work introduces \dataset{}, a seven-class bathroom acoustic-event dataset containing 21{,}387 annotated clips recorded across five environments, and proposes SincDPNet, a compact raw-waveform classifier with a learnable sinc filter bank followed by a depthwise-separable convolutional body. Each sinc filter is controlled by two frequency parameters, allowing the learned passbands to be inspected directly in hertz while keeping the front end small. To reduce room-specific leakage, recording sessions and environments are separated before overlapping windows are assigned to the training, validation, and test partitions. We further use multi-objective Bayesian optimization as a design tool to examine the validation performance–model-size trade-off across 24 configurations. The selected designs span different operating points: the best-performing model achieves 80.2% accuracy and 0.760 macro-F1 with 14{,}040 parameters, while the compact $N_f=25$ configuration uses only 2{,}848 parameters and achieves 75.7% accuracy, 0.661 macro-F1, and 0.716 MCC on the held-out environment. Analysis of the learned filters and confusion patterns shows that spectral overlap contributes to confusion among water-related events, while the Door/Walker/Crutch errors also reflect similarities in their transient temporal structure.
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Machine Learning

Reference-Tail Trust:Certified Probability Floors for Learned Updates Inside a Deployed Network

Graph neural networks (GNNs) need to exploit improved message passing without surrendering control over predictions already trusted in deployment. We introduce Reference-Tail Trust (RTT), a framework that admits learned updates inside a frozen GNN and certifies the prediction actually served. RTT couples graph-based proposal states with a constrained internal optimizer: each displacement is charged for its worst-case terminal cross-entropy increase through the incumbent's remaining message-passing layers. A trajectory-validated tube and an independent checker enforce per-node probability floors, $p^{\mathrm{s}}_{ic} \ge e^{-H_{\mathrm{row}}} p^{\mathrm{r}}_{ic}$, and a call-level budget, $\sum_i w_i D_\infty(p^{\mathrm{r}}_i \| p^{\mathrm{s}}_i) \le H^+$, uniformly over labels. Calls whose adapted outputs pass certification require no separate full incumbent rollout; failed certificates trigger whole-call fallback. We derive the exact probability-floor frontier by water-filling, characterize architecture-constrained efficiency, and establish conditions under which internal propagation exploits evidence unavailable to restricted output correctors. In the reported ogbn-arxiv audit, RTT achieves $6.5\times 10^{-3}$ nats of mean gain per call, with a one-sided 95% regression-rate upper bound of 0.95% and a 95% negative-flip upper bound of 0.51% on the uninspected part of the reserved node population. Its mean gain is 61% of a cross-fitted posterior-based frontier estimate and exceeds the strongest matched one-pass corrector by $+0.9\times 10^{-3}$ nats. Reported experiments span eight proposals, six graph-incumbent families, structural and temporal graph shifts, and molecular prediction, with additional image and tabular evaluations. RTT makes GNN adaptation a budgeted, certifiable inference decision rather than an unconditional model replacement.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) provide predictive distributions for regression, but their prediction regions can exhibit undercoverage or overcoverage even when point predictions are accurate. We introduce C-USIM (Conditionally-Uniformized Score Integration Method), a lightweight application of highest predictive density split conformal prediction that accommodates multimodal predictions. Given calibration and test outputs, it requires no additional training or model inference. It provides finite-sample marginal validity under our assumptions. We bound conditional-marginal coverage gaps using distribution-estimation error and score discreteness, and examine coverage heterogeneity through percentile rank-score plots. Experiments with TabPFN and TabICL show improved marginal coverage accuracy and lower average conditional and group coverage errors. Under a fixed data budget, allocating more observations to calibration can reduce marginal coverage error despite less accurate point predictions.
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Machine Learning

From Attention Sensitivity to Layer Role: Revisiting Mixed-Precision Quantization of Transformers

Most post-training quantization pipelines fit each weight matrix to its pretrained counterpart, one matrix at a time. Whether that proxy tracks what an attention block actually computes, or how errors in the Q, K and V projections compound inside the softmax, is rarely checked. We write the objective on the attention output instead, over all three projections at once, and reuse it throughout the pipeline. JAB defines one scalar loss over the joint Q, K, V weights of a block, evaluated against the block's real causally-masked attention output, and uses it twice: to fit the quantized weights (GPTQ warm start, then STE with learnable scales), and to score the block for a multiple-choice knapsack allocation. On attention-only quantization of Mistral-7B this works. At 3 bits JAB recovers 77-90% of the gap between uniform GPTQ and full precision, and its sensitivity estimate tracks an oracle costing 73 forward passes to within a fraction of a point. It stops working once MLP layers enter the allocation. A role-aware offset rule needing no sensitivity estimate at all beats JAB on GPT-2's MLP and on the full Mistral-7B model: with a 3-bit floor it quantizes 96.4% of the weights to 4.5 bits per parameter at 6.933 perplexity, within 4.4% of full precision (6.643) at 3.56x compression, against 7.158 for JAB at the same budget. Which matrix a weight sits in matters more than any sensitivity estimate we computed. Two things came out sideways. Block-local reconstruction is an unreliable proxy for end-to-end perplexity: one run improved a block's own objective 4.6x while perplexity rose 32x, which is why every allocation here is validated end-to-end. And on attention-only quantization, fine-tuning moved weights farther from their pretrained values while pulling attention outputs closer, with net gains. Post-training seems to recover attention behavior, not weights.
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All authors Nafiseh HosseinpourFardi, Negar Alihadi, Mahmoudreza Babaei, Milad Hosseini, Adrian Weller

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

When Text Matters: Design Principles for Visual Token Pruning in Vision-Language Model

Visual token pruning has been widely studied as a practical approach to reducing the computational cost of large vision-language models. However, it struggles to preserve essential visual information, which can lead to substantial performance degradation. In particular, image-based token selection can overlook task-relevant details, while text-guided token selection may fail to capture the text–visual relationships needed for complex reasoning. We find that applying textual guidance too early can limit its ability to identify answer-relevant visual regions, whereas text-to-visual attention becomes more informative at intermediate decoder depths. This finding motivates our training-free method, which separates early vision-guided pruning from deferred text-guided reselection. We first prune visual tokens using vision-encoder attention, retain additional candidates until the decoder midpoint, and then use text-to-visual attention to determine the final visual-token set. Across eight benchmarks and three models, our method outperforms the best-performing baselines by an average of 11.10 and 16.84 percentage points in performance recovery at 80% and 90% pruning, respectively, with comparable or lower LLM-prefill latency than most baselines. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/kmc3661/DeFT
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All authors Minchan Kang, Kyeonghye Park, Seoyoung Cho, Daeshik Kim, Yucheol Cho

Machine Learning

Attention-based Hierarchical Variational Information Bottleneck for Robust Multi-Agent Communication under Variable Bandwidth

Learning-based multi-agent communication under limited bandwidth does not only require deciding what to communicate, but also structuring messages so that partial transmissions remain useful. We study this problem under prefix truncation, where only the first part of each message is received. To address it, we propose AH-VIB, an attention-based autoregressive variational communication model that combines a variational information bottleneck (VIB) with sequential message generation and a hierarchical robustness loss. We evaluate AH-VIB on a custom cooperative object-inspection and occupancy-mapping task, where agents equipped with a limited field-of-view sensor coordinate to scan inspection objects in an occupancy-grid world, under variable and fixed bandwidth conditions, and compare it against MADDPG, CommNet, a flat VIB baseline, and an autoregressive MLP ablation. AH-VIB achieves competitive mean return while improving performance reliability under the most constrained bandwidth conditions. These results indicate that AH-VIB improves the reliability and graceful degradation of learned communication under bandwidth constraints.
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All authors Lukas Koch Vindbjerg, Qi Zhang, Yury Brodskiy, Lukas Esterle

Machine Learning

Beyond Verbalized Confidence: Calibrating Reasoners with Differentiable Readouts

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) trains reasoning models to produce correct answers, but does not ensure that their stated confidence is calibrated. The resulting models are systematically overconfident. Recent methods train calibration inside the RLVR loop by having the model state a numerical confidence alongside its answer, but they all obtain the confidence by sampling it as text. This choice imposes two costs: a sampled confidence introduces variance and in practice collapses to a handful of distinct values, and sampling makes the confidence non-differentiable, forcing the calibration loss through a scalar reward. We propose CREDO (Confidence REaDOut) to replace sampling with a deterministic readout. While RLVR optimizes correctness, CREDO reads the confidence from a dedicated token pair in the model's output distribution and trains it by differentiable regression. CREDO further turns the trained confidence into a signal for accuracy, weighting rollouts by how far confidence and outcome disagree, so that accuracy and calibration improve together. Across mathematical and code reasoning, CREDO attains the best accuracy and calibration, and the gains extend to abstention and selective prediction.
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All authors Chenxiao Fan, Chongming Gao, Gangyi Zhang, Leyang Shen, Yaxin Gong, Jiamin Wang, Jiakai Wang, Dong Wang, Yang Liu, Fuli Feng, Xiangnan He

Machine Learning

Learning High-Risk High-Precision Motion Control

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms for movement control are typically evaluated and benchmarked on sequential decision tasks where imprecise actions may be corrected with later actions, thus allowing high returns with noisy actions. In contrast, we focus on an under-researched class of high-risk, high-precision motion control problems where actions carry irreversible outcomes, driving sharp peaks and ridges to plague the state-action reward landscape. Using computational pool as a representative example of such problems, we propose and evaluate State-Conditioned Shooting (SCOOT), a novel DRL algorithm that builds on advantage-weighted regression (AWR) with three key modifications: 1) Performing policy optimization only using elite samples, allowing the policy to better latch on to the rare high-reward action samples; 2) Utilizing a mixture-of-experts (MoE) policy, to allow switching between reward landscape modes depending on the state; 3) Adding a distance regularization term and a learning curriculum to encourage exploring diverse strategies before adapting to the most advantageous samples. We showcase our features' performance in learning physically-based billiard shots demonstrating high action precision and discovering multiple shot strategies for a given ball configuration.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

From Soft Targets to Reward Signals: How Assignment and Reward Objectives Interact

Soft preference targets specify supervision strength, and reward objectives convert that strength into learned reward signals. A central design question remains: how does assigning a fixed set of preference strengths to different response pairs change the rewards produced by different objectives? We introduce assignment geometry to study this interaction. Mean-matched smoothing controls target dispersion, while within-stratum reassignment changes correspondence and preserves the complete target distribution. Across five reward objectives, intact correspondence retains the largest clean preference margins among the compared soft targets within a common accuracy-equivalence budget. Attenuation orderings change with the reward objective, revealing different responses to the same target assignments. Independent reassignments and a related source construction reproduce the retention direction. An attenuation-retention profile compares these combinations through margin magnitude, edit response, and accuracy. Against independently calibrated scaling, APLOT uniform targets deliver additional attenuation on both aggregate and presentation edits. These findings establish a joint design space in which target placement and reward objective shape reward properties beyond preference accuracy.
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All authors Jiangtao Lin, Bangyang Wei, Siyi Liu, Yihang Ding, Yuhan Dong

Machine Learning

When Sparse Reward Meets Dense Distillation: Training Dynamics of On-Policy Distillation

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards provides a sparse post-training signal: a single binary outcome evaluates the entire rollout, and every token receives the same sequence-level advantage regardless of its individual contribution. To complement this sparse supervision, a growing family of methods adds a scalar-weighted teacher KL term to the policy-gradient objective, providing dense token-level guidance that may be unreliable at some positions. Despite the benefits of combining these signals, their interaction during optimization can destabilize joint training. To understand how this instability develops, we study the learning dynamics of hybrid reward–distillation training through a neural tangent kernel (NTK) analysis. We introduce the cross-signal NTK $K_{DR}(n)$, a token-level statistic that measures the alignment between reward and distillation gradients at position n. Through this analysis, we identify two failure modes: 1 Magnitude drowning, where the reward gradient exceeds the distillation gradient by orders of magnitude, so that even weak directional conflict can cause the distillation loss to rise despite its explicit inclusion in the training objective; and 2 Localized directional conflict, where the sequence-level advantage and the teacher's position-specific distribution induce opposing updates at the same token ($K_{DR}(n)\!<\!0$). The severity of these effects depends on the optimization regime: the gradient-norm ratio $\kappa\!=\!\|\nabla\mathcal{L}_R\|/\|\nabla\mathcal{L}_D\|$ varies by roughly an order of magnitude across tasks, and our experiments reveal an empirical threshold beyond which naive mixing can lead to persistent training collapse. Motivated by these findings, we introduce the M3 family, which combines magnitude normalization with three strategies...
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All authors Xinke Jiang, Tao Feng, Zhibang Yang, Zhixin Zhang, Weixuan Xu, Haoyu Zhang, Xu Chu

Machine Learning

Context-dependent time-series prediction via HyperReservoirs

Time series prediction is a common application of reservoir computing. When the training and testing time series data contains multiple dynamical regimes, because an underlying parameter is changing, or the data in fact consists of multiple distinct systems, simple application of the reservoir computing principle produces high prediction errors. Here, we propose a HyperReservoir as an extended model of reservoir computing especially designed for such cases. The HyperReservoir combines a main reservoir with a smaller context reservoir, where the latter modulates the output weights of the former. This structure resembles the hypernetworks from deep neural network literature. However, in contrast, HyperReservoirs retain the simple training via linear regression of standard reservoir computing. We compare the proposed architecture with a conventional ESN, in which context acts at the input, and a full-matrix Conceptor, in which context modulates the reservoir state space. We evaluate all three models on time-series prediction tasks based on Lorenz and Rössler systems, including for varying bifurcation parameters and time sampling scales. We find that the HyperReservoir achieves the lowest mean test error in all three tasks, and particularly outperforms conceptors on data that is sampled from the same attractor but at different time scales.
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All authors Kohei Tsuchiyama, Takatomo Mihana, Ryoichi Horisaki, André Röhm

Machine Learning

QiYao-M: Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model with Role-Aware Modeling of Endogenous and Exogenous Modalities

Existing multimodal time series foundation models (TSFMs) typically model heterogeneous modalities through largely shared mechanisms, overlooking the distinct forecasting roles of endogenous and exogenous modalities. In this work, we propose QiYao-M, a role-aware multimodal TSFM that models the two types of modalities separately. For endogenous modalities, to capture how they evolve along with the underlying temporal dynamics, we introduce an Endo-Multimodal Predictor and Endo-Multimodal Supervision to explicitly learn their evolution from history to the future. For exogenous modalities, to generalize across domains and across various modality types and numbers under the scarcity of exo-multimodal pretraining data, we propose an Exo-Multimodal Retrieval Enhancer that enables rapid downstream adaptation without updating the TSFM parameters. We further introduce Endo-Modality Proxy Training to train this retrieval module without exogenous multimodal pretraining data. Extensive experiments across unimodal and multimodal benchmarks demonstrate strong forecasting performance in scenarios both with and without exogenous modalities.
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All authors Hanyin Cheng, Linfeng Wang, Zhengbo Qu, Yang Shu, Zhongwen Rao, Meng Wang, Yijie Li, Xin Jiang, Bin Yang, Chenjuan Guo

Machine Learning

DivOPD: Spread Wide, Look Close for Asynchronous On-Policy Distillation of Multi-turn Agents

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains student agents through teacher supervision on their own interactions with an environment. However, in asynchronous multi-turn training, arrival-order batching can allow a few early or long rollouts to dominate learner updates while other valid rollouts become stale before being used, wasting already-generated experience. To address this problem, we introduce DivOPD, a simple learner-side batch-selection method that spreads a fixed turn budget across more rollouts and, within each rollout, prioritizes turns with larger cumulative teacher-student disagreement. Turns without usable teacher feedback are excluded. The per-turn loss and optimizer remain fixed; selection only changes which student-visited turns receive training weight. For no-progress rollouts, an optional extension briefly hands control to the teacher before returning it to the student. Across six teacher-student settings on the simulated ALFWorld, ScienceWorld, and WebShop benchmarks, with 1.5B-7B students, DivOPD raises cross-setting mean peak success rate from 77.4 to 84.4 and mean success over the last five evaluations from 71.5 to 78.6. It reaches all reported setting-specific targets with geometric-mean speedups of 1.84x in training tokens and 1.87x in learner GPU time relative to vanilla OPD. Teacher intervention further raises this last-five mean to 82.4 while retaining about 1.7x learner-GPU speedup over vanilla OPD. Code will be released at https://github.com/HanyangWang0418-oss/DivOPD.
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All authors Hanyang Wang, Zeyuan Liu, Zhengyu Chen, Jingqing Ruan, Chaoxu Pang, Zhongda Su, Wulin Xie, Zhizhao Zeng, Ke Zeng, Tianxiang Zhao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

MW-Nowcast: Six-hour ensemble nowcasting of extreme precipitation

Extending reliable nowcasting of extreme precipitation could provide critical additional time for warnings and emergency response during high-impact events such as flash floods. Radar-based generative machine-learning models have enabled skilful hyperlocal precipitation nowcasting, but accurate prediction of intense precipitation remains confined to the first few hours. Because storm-scale structure is predictable for longer than individual cells, a natural strategy is to predict that structure while generatively modelling only the uncertain local growth, decay, reorganisation and initiation of storms. Here we present Microsoft Weather Nowcast (MW-Nowcast), a six-hour ensemble radar nowcasting model that jointly learns a deterministic predictor to capture organised precipitation structure shared across ensemble members, and a generator to produce diverse local residuals around this shared prediction. Across independent test data from the United States, Europe and China, MW-Nowcast achieves higher detection skill than leading methods for heavy and extreme precipitation throughout the 6 h horizon. For the most intense rainfall, MW-Nowcast doubles the available warning time across all three regions, delivering 6 h forecasts with skill previously limited to 3 h for the leading generative baseline. A cost-loss decision analysis shows that MW-Nowcast retains substantial value for a broad range of applications even at 4-6 h, where alternative methods offer little benefit. These additional hours can give forecasters and emergency managers the time to warn and act before extreme rainfall strikes, helping to protect lives and property.
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All authors Ning Wang, Zuliang Fang, Weixin Jin, Zhongjian Lv, Shuang Qin, Pengcheng Zhao, Siqi Xiang, Jiang Bian, Haoyi Xiong, Nan Guan, Bin Zhang, Liangjie Zhang, Denvy Deng, Qi Zhang, Matt Corey, Jitu Keshri, Sridhar Iyer, Hongyu Sun, Kit Thambiratnam, Jonathan Weyn, Richard E. Turner, Haiyu Dong