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Tuesday 22 September

Machine Learning

Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL

A conformal abstention certificate for text-to-SQL is only as truthful as the correctness labels it is calibrated on. The uncertainty pipelines that read confidence off execution consistency take those labels from the single database a benchmark ships, an oracle known to be lenient. We run a preregistered intervention on Spider-Realistic, swapping that database for the benchmark's distilled multi-instance test suite. Across four SQL-specialist checkpoints and two split schemes, the swap raises the certificate's held-out risk 2.73 to 10.23 points above the risk its own labels report. Neither oracle reports the risk experts assign. Under blinded labels from two SQL experts, a certificate calibrated at a nominal 0.10 carries 20.0 and 17.2 points of risk on two checkpoints. The stricter oracle errs in both directions: most of the answers it rejects are not judged wrong, and some of those it accepts are. An AI-assigned census of what it rejects finds a semantic error in a quarter to a third of them, depending on the population. It attributes most of the rest to underspecified questions, synthetic instances or suspected reference-query defects, a flag supported by a preregistered blinded expert audit. The oracle also decides how a confidence score is judged. Every execution-consistency score looks better under the labels of the oracle that built its clusters, in 16 of 16 combinations. Under expert labels, building such a score on suite clusters instead of shipped-database clusters raises its area under the ROC curve (AUROC) by 6.96 points on one checkpoint and 1.53 on the other. On the second, the expert interval excludes the 8.3 points the suite labels report. A certificate should be reported with both oracles, and an oracle-relative difference read as semantic risk only after the benchmark is audited. A consistency score should be evaluated under an oracle that did not build it.
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All authors Jiamiao Liu, Dewen Qiao, Yu Zhang, Xuetao Chen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Conditional Tensor Diffusion: Distributional Counterfactual Learning and Inference

Causal inference guides operational and managerial decisions but remains challenging in high-dimensional panel or tensor settings, where decisions may depend on the joint conditional distribution of missing control outcomes. We develop Counterfactual Tucker Diffusion (\CFTDiff), which integrates the treatment mask and latent Tucker structure into conditional diffusion to recover this distribution given observed control outcomes through efficient nonlinear score learning in a low-dimensional core. The masked Tucker score preserves dependence across tensor modes while reducing the dimension of nonlinear score learning from the product of mode dimensions to the much smaller product of Tucker ranks. We establish high-probability error bounds for conditional score estimation that depend on the Tucker ranks, largest mode dimension, and the factor-strength-adjusted number of missing outcomes, and show how these bounds translate into recovery guaranties for the conditional distribution of the missing control outcomes. Across missing rates, simulations show more accurate point recovery than common causal panel and matrix/tensor completion methods; comparisons with nested diffusion specifications further demonstrate the gains from masked conditioning and Tucker dimension reduction. In Norway's iFlex experiment, \CFTDiff recovers missing outcomes more accurately than competing methods; when applied to causal analysis, its estimated conditional distributions yield counterfactual prediction intervals and target-attainment probabilities, allowing pricing interventions to be evaluated by demand-reduction magnitude and reliability.
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All authors Xinbing Kong, Zeyu Li, Junfan Mao, Bin Wu

Machine Learning

Beyond Scalar Sensitivity: Activation-Aware Mixed-Precision LLM Quantization with Cross-Layer Refinement

Mixed-precision weight quantization is commonly formulated as a Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem (MCKP), yet existing solvers rely on scalar sensitivity proxies that collapse each weight matrix's Hessian into a single number and treat every module independently. We prove that even the optimal scalar proxy incurs multiplicative distortion up to $\sqrt{\kappa(\mathbf{A})\kappa(\mathbf{B})}$ relative to the full activation-aware quadratic, where $\kappa(\mathbf{A})$ and $\kappa(\mathbf{B})$ denote the condition numbers of the input- and output-side Hessian factors. This bound varies from $10^1$ to $10^{13}$ for typical LLM modules, making inter-module sensitivity ranking unreliable. To address these limitations, we propose Cross-layer Activation-aware Sensitivity Allocation (CASA), a two-phase method. In Stage 1, the scalar proxy is replaced by an activation-aware metric derived from the Kronecker-factored Hessian, reducing the MCKP to a form whose continuous relaxation admits a closed-form solution. In Stage 2, a cross-layer-aware local search evaluates bit-width updates using the end-to-end model loss. Experiments on multiple LLMs across different bit budgets show that CASA achieves lower perplexity than the latest scalar-proxy baselines, especially at ultra-low bit-widths ($<3$ bits per weight). Moreover, the performance gain in zero-shot accuracy tracks the per-model average condition-number over modules, confirming the distortion bound as a practical indicator of scalar-proxy failure.
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Machine Learning

AURA: Angular Update Rate Adaptation for training complex-valued neural networks

Complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs) are increasingly adopted for complex-valued data; however, they are often trained with first-order optimizers inherited from the real-valued case. The efficiency of these methods depends largely on the step size, and their step-size rules ignore the angular information available in the complex plane. We address step-size adaptation in the complex domain by introducing AURA (Angular Update Rate Adaptation), a per-parameter step-size adaptation that can be added on top of any first-order optimizer, and removed from it, without altering its update direction. AURA measures the agreement between consecutive updates of each complex parameter, in length, alignment, and sense of rotation, and enlarges the step when they are consistent and reduces it when they are not. It requires no additional gradient evaluations and only inexpensive vector operations per step. We combine AURA with Adam and Muon and compare the resulting methods with well-known first-order optimizers on four test cases of increasing complexity, ranging from the approximation of scalar complex functions to physics-informed training. Fully connected neural networks are used throughout this work. All hyperparameters other than the step size are held fixed across test cases; for one case, we also tune the hyperparameters of each optimizer under the same budget. Our empirical tests show that AURA improves the convergence of its base optimizer in most cases with a small per-step overhead, and we identify the conditions under which it fails to do so.
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Machine Learning

Evaluating the Effectiveness of SechKAN on 1D Data

The connection between the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem (KART) and neural network design has led to the development of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), with applications ranging from STEM problems to AI tasks. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of a KAN variant, SechKAN, which relies on hyperbolic secant (sech) functions as basis functions, with a 1D projection to reduce the number of parameters to a level comparable to MLPs. We evaluate SechKAN on three 1D classification datasets: UCI Human Activity Recognition (UCI HAR), ElectricDevices, and Crop, and compare it with several effective networks, including EfficientKAN, MLP, CNN1D, ResNet1D, and DSCNN1D, using approximately comparable parameter budgets. The results indicate that SechKAN achieves competitive performance across the three datasets, with particularly strong performance on Crop. Ablation studies further show that grid size and normalization affect performance, suggesting that SechKAN's effectiveness depends on the dataset and architectural choices. Our source code and experimental implementation are publicly available at: https://github.com/hoangthangta/SechKAN_1D.
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Machine Learning

Neural Approximation by Function Composition: Rigidity and Doubly Exponential Convergence

Deep neural networks approximate functions by composing affine maps with nonlinear activations, but how composition itself creates approximation power is not yet fully understood. We investigate a fundamental mechanism: geometrically weighted sums of iterates of a single scalar generator function. This mechanism underpins the classical tent-map construction of the function \(x - x^2\) and related recursive representations used by Yarotsky, W. E, et al., to analyze the approximation powers of deep neural networks. First, we establish a rigidity theorem: for continuous piecewise linear generators with a finite number of segments, any \(C^3\) function that can be represented in this way is at most quadratic. For non-affine quadratic functions, the geometric factor is at least $1/4$. This result both reveals limitations of the tent-map approach and complements existing methods based on hierarchical bases and recursive polynomial constructions. Second, using an exact remainder identity as guidance, we construct a smooth generator whose iterates yield doubly exponential error decay in total depth for square approximation and, through multiplication modules, for each fixed polynomial. For power series with absolutely summable coefficients on \([-1,1]^d\), distributing depth according to monomial degree yields a uniform approximation error of order \(O(e^{-cL^{1/d}})\) on each interior cube. These findings demonstrate how generator dynamics and remainder estimates govern depth allocation and approximation rates of deep neural networks.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Visual Jev: Accurate and Efficient Decisions from Shared Visual Context

Many vision applications ask several independent, forced-choice questions about the same image. Visual Jev encodes the image and public context once, executes isolated question suffixes as a batch, and reads candidate probabilities from the backbone's language-model head. Across four benchmarks, answer-supervised post-training raises equal-weight macro accuracy from 70.6% to 76.1%, with the gain concentrated on the two task families represented in training. At N=32 questions per image, shared batched execution is 8.9x faster in warm amortized time than independent serial execution and remains 3.4x faster than an already-batched baseline that recomputes the prefix, at the cost of higher peak memory. A matched typed-head control offers no consistent accuracy advantage over the language-model-head readout. The supported design is therefore simple: adapt the backbone for quality, retain the existing readout, and share execution for efficiency.
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Machine Learning

Gaussian Flow-Matching Schedules: Implications for Sampling and Training

Flow-matching schedules affect both sampling dynamics and the variance of the regression target. For centered commuting Gaussians, we show that a direction-dependent schedule decomposes into two independent design choices: a variance path, which fully determines the intermediate laws and probability flow, and a factorization, which leaves this flow unchanged while controlling irreducible regression variance. On the sampling side, we analyze finite-step Euler accuracy and derive a necessary drift bound for exact N -step sampling, connecting the geodesic and the logarithmic path. On the training side, for any fixed path, we derive closed-form factorizations that either minimize time-averaged regression variance or make it constant along the path.
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All authors Arsène Claustre, Hugo Negrel, Claire Boyer, Kimia Nadjahi, Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Machine Learning

In-Context Guidance: Learning Inter-Task Synergies via Numerical Foundational Models for Few-Shot Multitask Optimization

Multi-task optimization (MTO) addresses a set of optimization tasks simultaneously, often suffering from inaccurate inter-task relationship estimation under limited evaluation budgets, leading to negative transfer. This paper introduces In-Context Guidance Multitask Optimization (ICG-MTO), a novel framework that leverages numerical foundational models to improve inter-task coupling estimation in few-shot scenarios. Unlike conventional methods that rely solely on scarce observed data, ICG-MTO employs a frozen foundational model to infer auxiliary guidance through in-context learning. The framework operates through three stages: constructing an algorithm-specific in-context query from evaluated solutions, using the foundational model to infer a guidance signal characterizing predictive relationships among tasks, and translating this signal into algorithm-specific guidance for maximum-a-posteriori coupling estimation. This approach provides regularization during the early, data-scarce stages of optimization and gradually relinquishes control as task-specific observations accumulate. We instantiate the framework in multitask Bayesian optimization as ICG-MTBO, using directional fitness-class queries to guide inter-task coupling estimation, and further instantiate it in MFEA-II using decision-space-overlap queries to guide random mating probability estimation. Experiments across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world robot arm control problem, together with evaluations under different acquisition functions and evolutionary multitasking, demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of ICG-MTO for few-shot multitask optimization.
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All authors Tingyang Wei, Haofeng Wu, Jiao Liu, Zhao Wei, Puay Siew Tan, Yew-Soon Ong

Machine Learning

Protocol before progress: leakage-aware evaluation of AIS trajectory prediction

Reported gains in vessel-trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data are credited to new architectures, but the evaluation protocol is rarely measured as a source of error reduction. We build a leakage-aware protocol with vessel-, time- and region-disjoint splits and apply it to two corpora with different traffic: 31 days of Danish national AIS traffic and 30 days of US Gulf coast traffic off Houston and Galveston. On both, we audit TrAISformer, GATransformer, and controlled AISFormer-inspired reconstructions. Three protocol effects appear in both corpora. First, TrAISformer's best-of-16 oracle decoder lowers error by a factor of 2.1-3.2 relative to greedy decoding. Second, a split that shares vessels lowers its greedy error by 23-25% at one hour, against 2% or less for a compact 0.43 M-parameter encoder. Third, a region-disjoint split raises TrAISformer's one-hour error from 2.2 to 24.6 km on the US corpus, because 99.9% of the test contexts fall in longitude bins never seen in training; the encoder built on local offsets is unaffected by this. Architectural mechanisms matter less: GATransformer's graph attention gives no measurable benefit on either corpus, while its waterway feature is worth 12-22%. The effect of a time-disjoint split is not stable across corpora (13% versus 2%). We release the splits and code.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Beyond Reconstruction Error: Analytical and Data-Driven Action Tokenization for Autoregressive Vision-Language-Action Models

Discrete action tokenization is central to autoregressive vision-language-action (VLA) models, yet action representations are often evaluated primarily through reconstruction fidelity. We ask which representation properties actually matter for closed-loop control by comparing fixed analytical, data-driven linear, and nonlinear neural representations under a unified tokenization interface. Across rate-distortion analysis, sequence-modeling diagnostics, and 3,500 LIBERO rollouts, representation rankings change with the evaluation criterion. PCA achieves lower nominal reconstruction error than Temporal-DCT, but produces less predictable token sequences and 3.0 percentage points lower mean seen-task success across three policy-training seeds, with the policy ordering reversing in one seed. In a matched seed-42 ablation, an autoencoder further reduces reconstruction error yet does not yield the strongest policy and exhibits greater sensitivity to discrete token perturbations. These findings show that reconstruction fidelity alone cannot reliably select action representations for autoregressive control, motivating joint evaluation of geometric fidelity, sequence predictability, decoder stability, and closed-loop performance.
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All authors Yuxin Yang, Gaohan He, Changxue Guan, Hangming Liu

Machine Learning

CacheDyG: Decoupling Temporal Propagation for Efficient Dynamic Graph Learning

Dynamic graphs are widely used to model time-evolving relational systems in real-world applications. Dynamic graph neural networks provide an effective framework for capturing both structural dependencies and temporal dynamics in such data. However, they typically intertwine temporal graph propagation with every optimization epoch and often maintain large trainable representations for each node-time pair. This design repeatedly recomputes largely unchanged historical structures, leading to substantial training and parameter overhead. To address this critical issue, we propose CacheDyG, a Cache-refine framework for efficient Dynamic Graph learning. Specifically, it decouples temporal propagation from routine parameter updates by constructing a time-ordered temporal dependency cache that stores graph-aware node-time representations in non-trainable buffers. During standard training epochs, CacheDyG reads from the cache and updates only a lightweight cache refiner, an adaptive residual gate, and the link predictor. Selective cache refresh further keeps cached representations aligned with the supervised objective while avoiding epoch-wise sparse propagation. Experiments on five dynamic graph benchmarks show that CacheDyG adopts substantially fewer trainable parameters and lower runtime to obtain more competitive predictive performance than baselines. These results demonstrate that cache-based decoupling provides an effective principle for scalable dynamic graph learning.
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Machine Learning

Multi-View Fair Clustering Guided by Cross-View Sensitive Information Discrepancy

Multi-view clustering (MVC) aims to uncover latent cluster structures by exploiting complementary information from multiple views. Despite substantial progress in clustering performance, fairness remains an important concern when MVC is applied to socially sensitive scenarios. Recent fair multi-view clustering methods have introduced fairness constraints into representation learning or clustering assignments. However, these methods generally treat different views under a largely uniform fairness mechanism, without explicitly distinguishing their varying levels of sensitive dependence during cross-view learning. In practice, different views may encode substantially different levels of sensitive information. Ignoring such cross-view discrepancy can allow highly sensitive-dependent views to influence less sensitive-dependent ones during cross-view learning, potentially degrading both clustering performance and fairness. To address this issue, we propose a novel multi-view fair clustering framework guided by cross-view sensitive information discrepancy. Specifically, we estimate the sensitive dependence of each view and develop a bias-ranked asymmetric alignment mechanism that encourages views with higher sensitive dependence to learn from those with lower sensitive dependence, while cross-view discrepancies are further exploited to adaptively regulate the alignment process. Moreover, fairness regularization is imposed on the consensus soft assignments to further promote group fairness. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a favorable balance between clustering quality and group fairness.
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All authors Mudi Jiang, Jiahui Zhou, Xinying Liu, Zengyou He, Zhikui Chen

Machine Learning

You Only Need 2/3 of the Chosen Experts: An Empirical Study of Dynamic Expert Pruning in Fine-Grained MoE LLMs

Fine-grained mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures have become a mainstream design for open-weight LLMs, with hundreds of experts and increasingly many selected per token. This shift makes dynamic expert pruning an attractive route to cheaper inference. Yet existing evidence comes largely from coarser architectures and likelihood-scored multiple-choice benchmarks, leaving three central questions open in the fine-grained regime: how redundant per-token expert selection is, how effectively existing pruning methods exploit that redundancy, and what governs a model's sensitivity to pruning. We fill this gap with a systematic empirical study of twelve fine-grained MoE checkpoints spanning nine architecture families, with a core suite of eleven benchmarks covering knowledge QA, mathematics, code generation, and general reasoning. We find that expert selection is far more redundant than the field's operating points assume: uniformly retaining about two thirds of the selected experts preserves 98.8% of unpruned performance on average, requiring only a one-integer change and delivering 1.2-1.7x measured speedup across two serving backends. This simple baseline leaves little room for dynamic allocation at conservative budgets: even the best published rules differ from it by under 1% at matched expert budgets. Their value emerges under aggressive pruning, where the best rules recover up to 3.0% over uniform truncation, with gains concentrated in the generative tasks that suffer the sharpest degradation. Sensitivity to aggressive pruning also depends on the model: larger and thinking models are more resilient, whereas multimodal models are more vulnerable. Together, these findings reveal how much expert computation fine-grained MoEs can dispense with, and establish when dynamic allocation earns its complexity, informing both practical deployment and future pruning methods.
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All authors Yuanteng Chen, Qiwei Lai, Chen Tianqi, Peisong Wang, Yuantian Shao, Nanxin Zeng, Zhilei Liu, Chuangyi Li, Jing Liu, Jian Cheng

Machine Learning

Auditing Proxy-Based Validation Across Text Spans

Evaluation scores are often validated by their agreement with inexpensive proxy labels. When the score and the proxy are computed from the same text span, however, that agreement can arise from surface evidence the two share rather than from the semantic construct the proxy is meant to represent. We make the distinction explicit by declaring the score, its span, the proxy and the target construct as a validation contract, then re-evaluating that proxy rule strictly outside the scored span. In a controlled HotpotQA correctness experiment varying only the shared text boundary, the score agrees with its proxy far better than with correctness at a 50-character prefix: the gap is +0.184, collapsing to at most +0.045 from 120 characters onward. At that short prefix the score still predicts whether the answer string appears later (AUC 0.634) while an equivalence test places its agreement with correctness at chance, so the reported proxy agreement does not establish that the score ranks correctness. On OR-Bench, suppressing each model's recurring opening templates removes most of the score's association with the refusal proxy, while matched-volume deletion removes almost none and construct agreement stays at chance. Only three of eleven external contracts support the off-span control, and none of the routing studies we sampled released the generations it needs. We therefore ask that a proxy-based validation claim declare the span each label is read from, report the construct agreement beside the proxy agreement, and release the generations that let the proxy be re-read off the scored span.
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Machine Learning

Latest Exact Match Attention

We introduce latest exact match attention (LEMA), an attention variant for transformers where queries and keys are binarized and each query attends only to the latest exactly matching key. We prove that LEMA transformers with chain of thought can simulate word-RAMs, as was recently shown for the less restrictive rightmost hard attention. In contrast to prior hard attention variants, the restriction to exact matches enables an efficient converse direction: word-RAMs can simulate LEMA transformers at a cost per token independent of the context length. Together, these results yield a close correspondence between the two computational models in terms of both compute and memory. Beyond the theory, we propose a training method for LEMA transformers that handles their non-differentiable operations with a straight-through estimator for the binarization and a soft attention surrogate annealed towards LEMA. On a synthetic associative recall task, LEMA models trained this way use their growing state to store and recall a large number of associations, outperforming gated DeltaNet (GDN) with its fixed state size. As a first scaling test, we train LEMA language models with up to 834 million parameters. They match softmax transformers of around half their size in loss and, on repeated rare phrases and a needle-retrieval task, remain behind softmax transformers but recall across longer distances than GDN models of comparable size. Finally, we implement dictionary-based inference for LEMA transformers and show constant generation speed comparable to GDN despite their growing state, with the dictionaries residing in main memory rather than VRAM. Code is available at https://github.com/moritzbroe/latest_exact_match_attention.
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Machine Learning

Evaluating Accuracy and Probabilistic Reliability of Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise a paradigm shift toward zero-shot forecasting by eliminating task-specific training. However, existing works often overlook trade-offs between predictive accuracy and probabilistic calibration. This paper presents a benchmark study of six TSFMs evaluated on energy, traffic, and financial datasets. We contrast their performance against statistical baselines and a supervised DL model. The study reveals that while TSFMs outperform statistical methods and supervised models, they are subject to a fundamental trade-off between point accuracy and probabilistic reliability. Specifically, xLSTM architectures provide robust probabilistic calibration across horizons. In contrast, patch-based transformers offer competitive accuracy but face calibration issues at long horizons, while transformer-based models exhibit context saturation points for optimal zero-shot reasoning. These findings offer evidence-based guidance for balancing generalization and uncertainty quantification in real-world deployments.
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Machine Learning

A Lightweight Plastic-Memory Framework for Graph Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning

Graph Incremental Learning has garnered increasing attention as dynamic graph data continues to emerge across diverse fields. Conventional approaches primarily address catastrophic forgetting by preserving node-related knowledge through replay or distillation techniques; however, they often incur high computational costs and inefficiency. This issue is further exacerbated in real-world scenarios where labeled data for new classes is scarce. In this paper, we propose a novel lightweight plastic-memory framework specifically designed for few-shot incremental learning on graphs. The core idea of our framework is the construction of a plastic-memory module that evolves over time, continuously updating and expanding its memory to accommodate new classes while retaining previously learned knowledge. In contrast to existing techniques, our memory module is both lightweight and effective, featuring an innovative evolving micro-clustering structure that dynamically updates representations of class prototypes, sub-prototypes, and their interaction weights. Building on this memory module, we introduce a memory-driven meta-learning framework that enhances adaptability to new tasks in its inner loop while maintaining stability for earlier tasks in the outer loop. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate the framework's superior performance in balancing stability for old knowledge and adaptability to new knowledge.
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All authors Zihan Mei, Zhili Qin, Tongze Zhang, Hongyuan Liu, Junming Shao, Qinli Yang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Statistical Gains from Looped Estimation under Parameter Budgets

Memory constraints in artificial intelligence motivate accurate function approximation with fewer parameters. We study looping, which repeatedly composes one update function with shared parameters; each output becomes the next input. A looped Transformer, for example, reuses one block, whereas its conventional untied counterpart uses separately parameterized blocks. We compare their parameter requirements for a given worst-case approximation accuracy, or equivalently, their approximation accuracy under a common budget limiting distinct trainable coefficients. We then ask whether this representational parsimony improves statistical accuracy. For general likelihood models, we establish an upper squared Hellinger risk bound for looped sieve maximum likelihood and a minimax lower bound for the jointly tuned untied family. Further loop iterations improve the approximation bound without adding parameters, while increasing computation and the fitted-class complexity bound. For targets of known Hölder smoothness, looped residual feedforward networks and post-layer-normalized Transformers attain the minimax polynomial rate up to logarithmic factors with a fixed number of bounded real parameters. At sufficiently large fixed budgets, looped worst-case risk vanishes while optimal worst-case untied risk remains bounded away from zero. The loop-to-untied risk ratio also tends to zero under specified growing-budget conditions. Regression, binary response, and energy-based generative models illustrate the theory.
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Machine Learning

Disentangling Heterogeneous Traffic Dynamics for Multi-Step Traffic Forecasting via Adaptive Spectral Decomposition

Accurate multi-step traffic forecasting remains challenging because observed traffic signals contain heterogeneous temporal dynamics with different characteristics and levels of predictability. Existing approaches typically model these dynamics within a unified representation or rely on predefined decomposition rules, which may limit their ability to flexibly separate persistent patterns from rapidly varying fluctuations. To address this issue, we propose the Adaptive Decomposition Network (ADNet), a component-specific forecasting framework that adaptively disentangles traffic dynamics into dominant and residual components. ADNet introduces a learnable complementary spectral decomposition mechanism that determines the contribution of each frequency bin to the two components. Unlike hard frequency partitioning, every frequency bin can contribute to both components with different learned proportions, allowing the decomposition to be optimized jointly with the forecasting objective. The reconstructed components are then modeled by two dedicated spatiotemporal forecasting branches, and their predictions are integrated to generate the final multi-step forecast. Experiments on the Alameda and Orange regions of the TraffiDent dataset show that ADNet achieves the best performance in 20 of the 24 reported region-horizon-metric comparisons, with particularly clear gains at longer forecasting horizons. Capacity-controlled ablation experiments further show that the learnable decomposition substantially outperforms a fixed decomposition and provides additional improvements beyond the dual-branch architecture alone. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptive decomposition and component-specific modeling for multi-step traffic forecasting.
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All authors Zijun Huang, Chenrui Fu, Wenhao Wang, Xiaochuan Gou, Chih-Chieh Hung, Guanyao Li

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.RT

Graded Representation Theory of Equivariant Neural Networks

Nonlinear activations can create equivariant interactions between irreducible representations that linear maps cannot. We use the Gaussian degree decomposition to extend ordinary polynomial degree to such nonlinear maps, and prove that for a fixed coordinatewise equivariant layer each degree factors into a polynomial determined by the linear maps and a scalar determined by the activation. This separates three distinct obstructions, coming from symmetry, coordinates, and activation.
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Machine Learning

Minimal Recurrent Behavioral Memory for Imitation under Partial Observability

What is the least recurrent memory needed to reproduce a specified expert under partial observability? The instantaneous requirement is the conditional entropy of the expert's behavioral quotient, but recurrence must also preserve distinctions that future observations will not restore before use. We characterize this minimal recurrent behavioral memory by a compatibility relation: under transitivity its classes attain the exact minimum, while the general case is an entropy minimization over closed compatible state assignments, with exact certificates on finite instances. A sole-carrier measurement protocol separates behavioral sufficiency, excess code rate, and information carried by observations or other memory paths; experimental bit requirements refer to the induced symbolic behavioral model under the stated occupancy. Across manipulation tasks, learned code rates remain near zero- and two-bit requirements as hidden modes grow to $512$, and anticipatory memory follows a $2\to1\to0$ requirement despite zero instantaneous demand during waiting. Learning this representation remains difficult: event-agnostic future-behavior supervision yields $36/40$ sufficient seeds with one frozen configuration and improves the longest-horizon pixel setting from $0/8$ to $6/8$ sufficient held-out seeds (closed-loop success from $0.08$ to $0.57$). On unmodified community benchmarks, the protocol certifies delay-independent requirements, which sufficient codes match at mid-delay. The supervision aids commitment but can induce predictive surplus; annealing it lets imitation and rate training reduce that surplus, separating the information-theoretic target from the ability to learn it.
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All authors Xianyao Li, Fang Xu, Rui Min, Ruitong Tian, Jing Du

Machine Learning

Modular Norm RandOpt: Population-Efficient Ensembling through Architecture-Aware Perturbations

RandOpt samples weight-perturbed language models and ensembles top-ranked candidates through plurality voting, but its global perturbation scale ignores heterogeneous module geometry. We propose Modular Norm RandOpt, an architecture-aware sampling method using module-wise natural norms and calibrated scales while preserving selection and voting. It outperforms RandOpt using $3\times$ fewer candidates on Countdown and at least $12\times$ fewer on GSM8K, with corresponding wall-clock savings. Evaluations across seven tasks and three Qwen scales ($0.5$B–$3$B) show higher mean accuracy than RandOpt on Countdown, GSM8K, and MATH-500 at every scale. The gains extend to Llama 3.2 $3$B and Gemma 3 $4$B on Countdown and GSM8K. On Qwen2.5-1.5B, our ensembles also achieve higher mean accuracy than iterative baselines on both tasks at comparable main-run evaluation budgets. On GSM8K, a tail-density diagnostic implies only a $1.2$–$1.8\times$ candidate reduction, while most ensemble improvement is associated with more favorable correct-expert support. These results highlight perturbation geometry as a key design choice for population-efficient, gradient-free search around pretrained models.
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Machine Learning

Beyond Class Marginals: Bounding Rehearsal Gaps without Freezing Class Co-occurrence

Class-balanced replay controls class frequency but does not determine the interval between successive replay appearances of a class. We study this interval, the rehearsal gap, separately from the class marginal and class co-occurrence, and introduce randomised-pass replay (RPR), which visits each resident class once per shuffled pass. For a fixed set of C resident classes and replay batch size b less than or equal to C, RPR preserves the balanced time-averaged class marginal and bounds every gap by 2*ceil(C/b)-1; a churn-conditional bound applies while the resident set changes. The scheduler uses no future class information and adds no replay examples or forward passes. In a linear-head ER-ACE diagnostic, joint absence from the incoming and replay batches produces a one-sided classifier-bias gradient. Longer absence episodes are associated with larger negative bias displacement, and removing the incoming-loss mask attenuates the scheduling effect. In the primary ER-ACE experiments, RPR improves final average accuracy by 0.72-1.67 percentage points relative to independent class-balanced retrieval under reservoir storage, with positive effects also observed under balanced storage. Pretrained ViTs show positive effects on the tested LT10 streams with small replay batches, while matched larger-batch controls show no material effect. Fixed-cycle and reused-pass controls change more than one temporal statistic, so the experiments do not isolate rehearsal-gap length from all other forms of temporal dependence. The accuracy effects depend on the learner and operating regime.
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Machine Learning

Self-Supervised Combinatorial Optimization with Constraints via Frank-Wolfe

Self-supervised learning for combinatorial optimization has emerged as a promising paradigm for solving discrete optimization problems with neural networks, but a central challenge remains: handling hard combinatorial constraints within continuous, gradient-based training. Continuously extending combinatorial objectives to convex domains is a powerful technique, yet existing approaches often require projection steps that constrain neural network outputs to lie inside the feasible polytope and rely on ad-hoc and problem-specific constructions. We propose a general framework in which the neural network is allowed to predict arbitrary continuous vectors that could potentially lie outside of the feasible polytope. These predictions are then approximated by sparse convex combinations of feasible solutions using a geometric decomposition algorithm based on Frank–Wolfe methods and approximate Caratheodory results. This decomposition induces an a.e.-differentiable, self-supervised loss defined as the expected value of the discrete objective. The same procedure provides an automatic rounding guarantee at inference time. We demonstrate strong empirical performance across multiple combinatorial problems, including the Quadratic Assignment Problem, Maximum Coverage, and the Traveling Salesperson Problem.
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Machine Learning

Signed Graph Pre-Training and Prompt Learning

Signed graphs arise in trust–distrust networks, financial correlation systems, biological interaction graphs, and many other domains in which edges can be positive or negative and may also be directed. While signed graph neural networks have improved task-specific learning, graph transfer learning on signed graphs remains underdeveloped. In this paper, we introduce TopoSIGN, a pioneer topology-guided graph pre-training and prompt learning framework for signed graphs. TopoSIGN combines a structural encoder built on the magnetic signed Laplacian with a novel persistent-homology branch that summarizes signed topology through Dowker-complex persistence images. The fused embeddings are then transferred to a prompt learning function. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of TopoSIGN in extracting useful structural information in signed graphs, as well as the adaptability and flexibility of the proposed general framework.
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All authors Zihan Mei, Rong Pan, Yuzhou Chen, Yixuan He

Machine Learning

Slow Decay and Silenced Expression: Iterated Subliminal Trait Transfer in Language-Model Lineages

Language models are increasingly trained on the outputs of other models, forming chains that we call lineages, in which a trait present in one generation can pass to the next. Prior work on subliminal learning has shown that a teacher's trait can transmit to a student through filtered data carrying none of the trait's content. However, the evidence covers only a single training step. We study whether such a trait holds or fades across lineages. We instill the trait into three copies of Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct and iterate the training step to depth ten from each, reading every generation two ways on the same held-out prompts: a keyword screen that looks for expressions of the trait in the model's output, and an activation probe that projects each model's displacement from the base onto a direction built from the other lineages' teachers. We report two findings. First, the trait persists through ten generations across three lineages. The instilled models express it on every completion; the keyword-screen rate falls to 55.6% after the first step and to 21.1% by generation ten. The base itself matches the screen on none of its 300 completions. Second, the trait can be present internally while absent behaviorally. When the model's default system prompt is removed at evaluation, the generation-ten students' keyword-screen rate is zero on every prompt while the probe score stays positive on every prompt. Steering the untreated base with the displacement of a generation-ten student, which is trained and measured under the default system prompt, induces screened expression of the trait even with the system prompt removed, while that same student shows no expression of the trait with the system prompt removed.
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All authors Ryan Vo, Duc-Vu Nguyen, Matt Kretchmar, Ngan Luu-Thuy Nguyen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Optimal Tradeoffs Between Network Size and Parameter Magnitude in Neural Approximation and Minimax Regression

The statistical accuracy of neural networks depends on both their approximation power and the complexity of the class fitted from data. While increasing network size is a natural way to improve approximation, parameter magnitude provides another resource whose role must be quantified in both respects. We establish a sharp width–magnitude tradeoff at fixed depth using one elementary bounded $1$-Lipschitz Dyadic–Triangular Activation. For the unit $\beta$-Hölder ball on $[0,1]^d$ with $0<\beta\leq1$, the optimal $L^p$ approximation error for $0<p<\infty$ is of order $[N^2\log(eNT)]^{-\beta/d}$ when the network width satisfies $N\geq2d+3$ and the parameter magnitudes are bounded by $T\geq1$. Matching lower bounds hold for every fixed globally Hölder activation; its Hölder exponent affects the constants but not the rate. Under bounded design densities and independent centered sub-Gaussian noise, approximate least squares over the full clipped class at depth $23$ attains the classical Hölder minimax risk $\mathcal{O}(M^{-\frac{2\beta}{2\beta+d}})$ without logarithmic loss whenever $N^2\log(eNT)\asymp M^{\frac{d}{2\beta+d}}$, where $M$ is the sample size. This yields a continuum of statistically optimal choices, ranging from unit parameter radius to fixed network size. At fixed size, four hidden layers with at most $8d+7$ nonzero parameters give a near-optimal radius, while six layers with at most $8d+27$ attain the optimal order $\log T=\mathcal{O}(\eta^{-d/\beta})$ at approximation error $\eta$. The same decoding method also yields fixed-size Transformer approximation.
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All authors Baicheng Li, Zuowei Shen, Haizhao Yang, Shijun Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

On the Gradient Heterogeneity Dynamics of Adversarially Robust Federated Regression

Federated learning (FL) is intrinsically heterogeneous: honest clients may have different data-generating models. On top of that, adversarial clients can make heterogeneity even more pronounced by sharing arbitrary updates. Existing analyses typically control the interaction between statistical heterogeneity and adversarial behavior through gradient-dissimilarity conditions. However, the underlying bound is imposed a priori and may yield conservative guarantees even for least-squares regression. We instead derive the gradient heterogeneity from the statistical model of linear and nonlinear regression with fresh data samples at every round. Our bounds separate heterogeneity among the honest clients' ground-truth model parameters, finite-sample label noise, and initialization. We then demonstrate that, for any $(f,\kappa)$-robust aggregator with coefficient $\kappa = O(f/n)$, where $f$ is the number of adversarial clients and $n$ the total number of clients (with $f/n < 1/2$), convergence holds after an explicit sample burn-in.
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All authors Leonardo F. Toso, James Anderson, Nirupam Gupta, Rafael Pinot

Machine Learning

Fully Byzantine-Resilient Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

We study distributed Byzantine-resilient actor-critic multi-agent reinforcement learning (AC-MARL), where agents collectively learn policies through local interactions. Existing methods guarantee convergence of the agents' parameters only to a neighborhood of the attack-free limit points, resulting in degraded performance. We propose Fully Resilient AC-MARL (FRAC-MARL), a decentralized method in which each agent leverages redundancy in two-hop messages to identify reliable messages. Under linear parameterizations of the value and team-reward functions and Byzantine edge attacks, where adversarial behavior is confined to the communication layer, we prove that agents' parameters converge almost surely to the same limit points as in the attack-free case over time-varying communication graphs. We introduce a novel topological condition for the convergence of our method, present a systematic method to construct such networks, and prove that this condition can be verified in polynomial time. Finally, we demonstrate our method on cooperative multi-robot formation control tasks.
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