Papers

Electroencephalography (EEG) provides non-invasive monitoring of brain activity and is widely used in emotion recognition, motor imagery and sleep staging. Although within-subject decoding has achieved considerable progress, cross-subject generalization remains a central challenge in practical applications. EEG decoders are typically trained with Adam/AdamW under a fixed second-moment decay coefficient, even though cross-subject learning involves low signal-to-noise ratios, subject variability, and gradient nonstationarity. A fixed coefficient implicitly assumes that gradient statistics are homogeneous across layers and time, which can limit model's adaptability to cross-subject EEG signals and degrade generalization. To address these issues, we propose AFOR, a tensor-wise adaptive optimizer that converts the fixed second-moment decay coefficient into a dynamic coefficient estimated online from local gradient state. AFOR combines a Residual-Alignment Signal Scorer (RASS) and an Adaptive Forgetting Controller (AFC). RASS summarizes local gradient residuals and directional agreement into a signal-quality score, and AFC maps this score through self-referential normalization to a bounded per-step decay coefficient, with cumulative-product initialization correction maintaining consistency under time-varying decay. Under a strict cross-subject protocol on three EEG benchmarks that cover three representative fields, AFOR achieves the best average performance among the compared optimizers, improving the mean test accuracy over Adam by 3.00%, 2.07%, and 4.38%, respectively.

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) claims that independently trained models converge on a shared statistical model of reality, yet recent work finds only weak pointwise similarity between models. In this paper, we show that what models share is not the location of samples in representation space, but the directions (displacement vectors) between them. Under a single orthogonal alignment–rotation and reflection only–these displacement vectors are substantially preserved across 44 independently trained vision and language encoders spanning modalities and asymmetric capability pairs, consistent with the PRH evidence. The samples' absolute positions are not, consistent with recent counter-evidence. Both arise from a single decomposition: representations split into a shared semantic component that is linearly aligned across models, and a private capability component that is not. We trace this geometry to concept-level structure: within a model, parent concepts are orthogonal to their child variation vectors; across models, concept displacements are parallel. Our theory falsifiably predicts (and experiments confirm) that fine-tuning preserves pointwise similarity but collapses displacement, and that relational distillation does the opposite. A major implication is that, because semantics align linearly but capabilities do not, capabilities can be imported from one model to another using a single cached forward pass through the source. We call this Shadow Casting. As a proof of concept, our SHADOWCLIP instantiation outperforms strong fine-tuned baselines at orders of magnitude less compute. A cache can be released alongside open model weights, letting one model's capabilities be downloaded and imported into any number of other models without fine-tuning.

Modern AI model training imposes unprecedented computational demands, making it a key contributor to datacenter energy consumption. Yet a significant fraction of the energy consumed during training does not translate to useful computation due to bottlenecks throughout the training pipeline. We present PAFT, a phase-aware, dynamically adaptable GPU frequency tuning system that reduces energy consumption of training workloads with minimal performance overhead. The key insight behind PAFT is that bottlenecks represent an energy optimization opportunity, rather than purely a performance problem: when GPUs are bound to stall, PAFT opportunistically reduces their clock frequencies to match the pace of bottlenecked devices, saving energy without impacting execution time. PAFT achieves this by continuously monitoring pipeline behavior and applying fine-grained frequency adjustments, adapting to workload and system changes. Experiments conducted on twelve widely used models show that PAFT consistently outperforms all baselines, achieving energy savings of up to 46% with an average overhead of 4%.

Sparse attention reduces the quadratic cost of global self-attention while retaining strong empirical performance, but how its restricted interactions shape the evolution of token representations remains theoretically underexplored. Modeling tokens as particles on the unit sphere, we introduce opinion leader dynamics, a framework that identifies two mechanisms through which token groups converge internally while maintaining distinct limiting directions. In the explicit model, fixed representatives induce a potential that attracts tokens toward distinct local maxima. In the implicit model, disconnected interaction groups evolve toward separate consensus directions. We formulate both models as reverse Wasserstein gradient flows and establish exponential convergence under suitable conditions. We further connect these theoretical predictions to token evolution in frontier sparse-attention LLMs that motivate our framework. Across four benchmarks, Kimi-K3, MiniMax-M3, and DeepSeek-V4-Flash consistently exhibit clearer cluster separation and higher clustering scores than the dense-attention model GLM-4.7-Flash in projected token representations. These observations support the relevance of the predicted multiple-group structure to trained frontier LLMs, while finite-particle simulations illustrate the theoretical convergence behavior. Together, our results connect restricted token interactions to distinct group-level attractors, providing a dynamical account of how sparse attention can support alignment within groups while preserving separation between them.

Speculative decoding losslessly accelerates large language model inference by having a lightweight draft model predict future tokens for verification by the target model. Recent block diffusion drafters further reduce drafting latency by predicting multiple tokens in parallel. However, existing block drafters project target hidden states at every input position into a separate drafter-side KV cache, incurring per-request memory and KV-write overhead that grow with concurrency; directly reusing target KVs in place removes this cache but fails to sustain draft quality throughout the block. We propose a hybrid target-context injection method that complements direct target KV reuse with target hidden states only at the last input position, requiring no separate drafter-side KV cache. Building on this design, we propose H-Spec, a hybrid Mamba-attention parallel drafter that consumes the two target-context sources through complementary modules. Mamba modules are initialized with projected last-token target hidden states, while attention modules reuse target KVs in place. Despite its recurrent formulation, Mamba's parallel scan allows H-Spec to preserve block-parallel drafting. Across three target models and diverse tasks, H-Spec improves over the best baseline by 5.0–13.3% in mean accepted length and 5.3–12.6% in batch-size-1 inter-token latency speedup. Under concurrent serving, H-Spec consistently achieves higher throughput while maintaining lower KV cache utilization than baselines across evaluated concurrency levels.

Evaluation scores used around LLM systems – including reward models, rerankers, and LLM judges – can track surface form instead of the quality they claim to measure. When presented with a terse correct solution and a commented buggy solution for the same MBPP problem, a public preference reward model selects the correct one no better than a coin flip (0.507). Subtracting the predictable surface component from such scores is increasingly common, but removal alone does not yield a more valid measurement: the removed component may carry construct-relevant signal, and residualization cannot tell which is which. Under designed interventions – unit-test labels with comment-only edits – residualization attenuates the reward model's format effects by about 0.12 on both correct and buggy code, while the correct-versus-buggy margins move by less than 0.01. In observational NLI and QA settings, we freeze a held-out replication before scoring and re-evaluate it using labels from disjoint annotators; this supports only a narrower conclusion: better agreement with the construct labels on a pre-declared slice where a surface-only predictor errs, not a repaired score. Full-population agreement falls in every observational setting with a reported positive slice gain, and within-question ranking falls in every such QA setting. When construct and surface features are entangled, residualization can decorrelate a score while degrading construct alignment, and, in a controlled model, configurations just as damaging to construct alignment pass every pre-adjustment check, so no committed gate is a guarantee. We assemble these distinctions into a reporting protocol whose outcomes, refusal included, state what an adjusted score may be claimed to show: an audit-time diagnostic reported beside the construct-alignment cost it incurs, never a replacement for the raw score.

As LLM agents increasingly interact with external tools through standardized protocols such as MCP, tool-interface design becomes a critical yet underexplored factor. How fun{\psi}tionality is decomposed into tools affects whether an agent can select the right tool and construct valid arguments. This choice is especially consequential at the edge, where resource constraints limit which models can run locally and scaling up is often not an option. We present MCP-GRANITE, an open-source extensible benchmark framework that treats tool-interface granularity as a controlled variable for MCP-based agents, evaluated under edge and IoT scenarios. It comprises 81 multi-step scenarios across 9 domains, instantiated at 4 granularity levels from fine-grained primitive tools to a single tool. We evaluate 9 locally deployed models (268M-20.9B parameters) across 8,748 trials using task completion, tool selection F1, argument accuracy, latency, and resource-usage metrics. Results show that a 4-tool interface offers the best trade-off, improving task completion by 16.4% over fine-grained primitives and 33.6% over a single monolithic tool, while nearly doubling argument accuracy. Model size is only weakly correlated with task completion and strongly with latency, while its association with argument accuracy is less robust, and a 3.2B model at the optimal granularity outperforms a 20.9B model at a mismatched one. These findings identify tool-interface granularity as a key design parameter for MCP-based agents.

Most existing time series forecasting methods rely solely on numerical observations, overlooking rich contextual information from auxiliary texts. Recent multimodal approaches attempt to incorporate textual signals, but they often treat text as static features or use large language models as forecasting backbones, limiting their ability to capture temporal dynamics and increasing computational cost. To address these challenges, we propose TAC-Time, a unified framework that transforms textual information into additional temporal channels. By modeling text features jointly with numerical sequences in a shared temporal backbone, TAC-Time preserves temporal continuity and periodic structures while remaining efficient and scalable. This formulation also enables systematic interpretability analyses. We show strong cross-modal dependencies through attention and frequency-domain analyses, and identify predictive textual signals whose correlation-aware alignment yields partial forecasting improvements. Extensive experiments on real-world multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that TAC-Time outperforms prior methods.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by using a lightweight draft model to generate multiple candidate tokens that are verified by the target model in a single forward pass. Its speedup is largely determined by the acceptance length, yet existing draft-model training methods mainly optimize cross-entropy or Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as proxies. These objectives encourage distribution matching but do not directly optimize acceptance length, and the acceptance mechanism also differs between greedy and sampling-based decoding. In this work, we propose acceptance-length-aware training losses that directly optimize the expected number of accepted tokens within a speculative window. For greedy verification, we derive an expected accepted length (EAL) loss that explicitly maximizes expected acceptance length. For sampling-based decoding, we introduce a window total variation (WTV) loss that optimizes the overlap between temperature-scaled draft and target distributions while accounting for sequential acceptance dependencies. Both objectives can be further combined with a group-relative reinforcement learning stage (GRPO) using simulated acceptance length as the reward. Experiments across different target and draft models, tasks, and decoding settings show that our losses consistently improve acceptance length over KL-based training. WTV provides particularly strong gains under sampling-based decoding, while EAL better matches greedy verification. These results show that directly optimizing the acceptance objective, with losses tailored to the decoding mode, is more effective than conventional distribution-matching objectives.

Language model agents are increasingly used to simulate social interaction, and the resulting transcripts read as though the agents understand one another. We ask whether that appearance rests on a model of the partner's mind or on the surface record of what the partner said. We build a social simulation in which both questions have exact answers: 40 multi-issue negotiations whose hidden preference weights and whose full Pareto frontier are known by construction. Two model families negotiate across 160 dyads, every transcript is frozen before any measurement, and 2880 counterfactual probes then hold the evidence byte identical while moving one factor at a time: the reader's own stake, the partner's tone, an identity label, and the order of recursion. The agents are socially fluent and economically poor. They reach agreement in 96.2% of dyads with 0 protocol failures, yet only 0.7% of deals land on the Pareto frontier, they leave 20.5% of the available joint value unclaimed, and they miss the one issue on which their interests are perfectly aligned in 76.6% of deals; on the frontier and on that aligned issue, a package drawn at random from the set both sides would accept does as well. The probes locate the failure. Swapping only the reader's own payoff sheet, while the partner's words and offers stay identical, moves the inferred top priority by 15.0 percentage points, which is egocentric projection rather than inference, while a tone rewrite moves it by 5.3 percentage points and an identity label by 0.0. Most tellingly, an agent predicts what its partner believes about it 72.5% of the time while that partner's belief is itself correct only 51.2% of the time: the agents track the conversation far better than they track the mind behind it.

Group-relative reinforcement learning compares rollouts of the same prompt, but independent environment noise can obscure these comparisons. We study paired rollouts, which share an event-keyed noise schedule within each group while preserving each rollout's marginal distribution. Pairing removes the between-schedule component of reward-contrast variance, but need not reduce gradient variance. For one-sided grader noise, we derive an exact condition for reduction and give a counterexample in which reward contrasts improve while gradient variance increases. A controlled study trains a 2B tool-use agent under tool faults and grader flips, with three seeds per design. The protocol was registered with a disclosed, previously completed pilot. Under tool faults, pairing improves final noisy-test success by +5.1 percentage points on average, with all three seed differences positive, but misses the registered learning-curve criterion. The criterion is also missed under grader flips: the validation-AUC difference is +0.003 (95% interval [-0.029, +0.033]). A gradient probe on eight distinct checkpoints from two fault-trained trajectories finds lower mean-centered covariance traces under both noise types: 21 to 30% for grader flips and 40 to 63% for tool faults. These finite-sample measurements support the variance mechanism without establishing a general learning-speed benefit. The results distinguish improving reward comparisons, reducing estimator variance, and improving learning.

On-policy distillation (OPD) pays twice for each fresh batch: the student generates trajectories and a stronger teacher scores them. Existing methods improve which trajectories are scored and how the teacher signal is constructed, but usually consume it with one actor update. We introduce CLOOPD, a closed-loop framework separating teacher-signal acquisition from student-side realization. CLOOPD selects an adaptive $\alpha$ waypoint inside a KL envelope, freezes the scored batch and its advantages, re-forwards the student after each actor pass, measures realization, and allocates actor work under a separate token budget. The framework includes deterministic two- and three-pass policies, token-priced CLOOPD-TPMR, and a budget-matched control. Across six 300-step runs on an 8-H20 node, every CLOOPD policy improves the one-pass TOP-D anchor at comparable teacher-token scale: macro accuracy rises from 15.41 to 17.78 with CLOOPD-Fixed2 and 19.36 with CLOOPD-Fixed3. At step 100, CLOOPD-Fixed3 reaches 15.35, nearly matching TOP-D at step 300 while using 67.2% fewer teacher-scored tokens and 28.0% fewer GPU-hours. Earlier 8-A100 ablations show adaptive $\alpha$ eliminates observed trust-envelope violations; a third pass adds headroom. These results position CLOOPD as a framework for budgeting how fully students learn from teacher-scored tokens.

Generative models have recently demonstrated considerable promise in speech super-resolution (SSR). Nevertheless, the majority of existing work has concentrated on standard or versatile SSR configurations, leaving the extreme setting with severely limited spectral inputs largely unexplored. In this regime, current approaches exhibit marked performance degradation, underscoring the need for dedicated solutions. To bridge this gap, we introduce P2Flow, a phoneme-aware progressive flow matching (FM) framework designed for extreme SSR with three main strategies. First, our model leverages phonetic information to reconstruct missing spectral components. Furthermore, it employs a progressive architectural design that hierarchically restores distinct frequency regions. Finally, we incorporate post-training of the vocoder to enhance overall waveform fidelity. Extensive experiments are conducted on the TIMIT and VCTK datasets under both 1 kHz to 16 kHz and 2 kHz to 16 kHz settings, demonstrating that P2Flow yields state-of-the-art results across multiple evaluation metrics.

Traditional data systems face profound limitations in the AI era, relying on human-crafted pipelines, lacking semantic understanding of heterogeneous data, and operating through rigid, reactive processing. To address these challenges, we propose a new paradigm called the Data Agent, designed to manage, process, and analyze data with minimal human intervention. Data agents autonomously execute a wide range of data-related tasks, transforming traditional data systems by shifting from manual design to autonomous orchestration, from literal manipulation to semantic interpretation, and from reactive to proactive processing. Our Data Agent system includes six components: semantic data organization, semantic operators, agentic pipeline orchestration and optimization, feedback-driven refinement, memory management, and proactive adaptation. Building on this foundation, we also develop two specialized agents: the data analytics agent and the data science agent. Experiments on real benchmarks demonstrate significant performance gains of our data agent over state-of-the-art methods. We identify open challenges to guide future research in building fully autonomous data systems.

LLM judges evaluate candidate language models through pairwise comparisons of their responses. Judge-aware Bradley–Terry models aggregate pairwise comparisons by jointly estimating candidate scores and judge-specific sensitivities (how strongly each judge responds to quality differences), often interpreted as reliability. We show that this reading fails when judges prefer a display position. Even under balanced display orders or swap-and-average, omitting position attenuates fitted judge sensitivity by approximately the factor $1-D^2$ near equal quality, where $D$ is the judge's net first-slot preference between equally good responses. We propose OSCAR, which jointly estimates candidate scores, judge sensitivities and judge-specific position, length and family effects, and provides confidence intervals for pairwise win probabilities that account for dependence within prompts. On held-out data, observed attenuation closely matches the prediction $1-D^2$ (correlation of log ratios 0.99). Across four datasets, position adjustment lowers held-out log loss by 14-23% and changes which judges would be dropped for low sensitivity on three datasets. On MT-Bench, it ranks GPT-4 first instead of claude-v1, matching human votes. Simulations with known parameters show improved recovery of judge sensitivities and candidate rankings, with 94.4-95.2% confidence interval coverage. Low estimated sensitivity alone is therefore not evidence of an unreliable judge.

Black-box machine learning models increasingly deliver strong predictions, but extracting useful information from them, such as a set of important features, remains challenging. Existing model-agnostic methods primarily estimate feature importance or conduct inference on it rather than directly selecting features, whereas many feature selection methods are model-specific or rely on the model-X assumption. We introduce LOCO-guided Adaptive Minipatch Sampling (LAMPS), a model-agnostic ensemble framework that uses any black-box regression algorithm as its base learner to select features important for predicting the response. The base learner need only produce predictions and need not perform feature selection itself. LAMPS operates within a minipatch ensemble framework that subsamples both observations and features, allowing leave-one-covariate-out (LOCO) feature importance scores to be easily computed. It adaptively concentrates minipatch sampling on features with high LOCO scores while maintaining exploration. The resulting sampling probabilities rapidly separate signal from noise features after a few iterations, enabling selection through simple thresholding. We establish that LAMPS achieves exact feature selection in high-dimensional settings, provided that the base predictive models are sufficiently well trained on average. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data show that LAMPS outperforms state-of-the-art feature selection methods, with particularly strong performance in the presence of correlated features.

Identifying linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical systems is challenging when trajectories are short, noisy, or high-dimensional. Traditional system identification typically treats each system independently and cannot exploit shared structure across related systems. We propose PBML-LTI, a PAC-Bayesian meta-learning framework for few-shot LTI system identification that learns a transferable prior over task-specific dynamics while preserving task heterogeneity. Each task corresponds to an unknown LTI system, and the meta-learner uses training trajectories to learn a data-dependent prior over transition matrices. For a new system with limited data, PBML-LTI performs Bayesian adaptation under this prior to obtain a task-specific posterior, providing accurate estimates and principled uncertainty quantification. A key challenge is temporal dependence, since LTI trajectories violate the i.i.d. assumptions underlying most PAC-Bayes meta-learning analyses. We address this with a martingale PAC-Bayes analysis for dependent trajectory losses and derive a support-query predictive-risk bound that motivates a fit-KL meta-training objective. The bound clarifies the roles of empirical fit, posterior complexity, and prior quality in few-shot adaptation under sequential dependence. We further derive corollaries for transition-matrix recovery and multi-step trajectory prediction, connecting uncertainty-aware meta-identification with finite-sample guarantees for dependent dynamical data.

Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) combines causal inference with Bayesian optimization to enable sample-efficient intervention selection in systems with causal structure. This survey provides a systematic review of CBO through a unified BO-loop perspective, showing how causal assumptions shape intervention search spaces, surrogate models, acquisition functions, and decision policies. We organize existing methods by graph and system-knowledge assumptions, environment, intervention representation, surrogate architecture, and decision rule, and connect CBO to causal bandits, Bayesian experimental design, safe optimization, policy search, and causal abstraction. We also introduce a reproducibility-oriented benchmark spanning hard- and soft-intervention settings, with standardized GAP and a new trajectory-aware Path-Aware GAP (PA-GAP), evaluating seven CBO methods and a non-causal BO baseline across thirteen datasets, three budgets, and two metrics. Results show that no method dominates uniformly: rankings depend on dataset, budget, metric, and how causal information is used, while strong non-causal baselines remain competitive in several settings. Controlled graph-misspecification and omitted-variable stress tests further show that rankings can change substantially when learner-side causal information is perturbed. We conclude by identifying key open challenges, including robustness to causal-assumption violations, scalable unknown-graph optimization, mixed intervention types, realistic cost models, stronger theoretical guarantees, and integration with modern representation learning and causal abstractions.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) addresses distribution shift using only unlabeled test data. Existing methods typically adapt pretrained models by updating their parameters, limiting both what is adapted and where adaptation can occur within the network. We instead keep the pretrained network frozen and steer its intermediate representations. We introduce SPeaR (Steering Primitive for Realigning Representations), which inserts lightweight learnable modules at stage boundaries and optimizes them directly from the test stream, requiring neither source data nor supervised warm-up. Each primitive is optimized using a gated objective that reduces uncertainty only when adaptation is beneficial, along with a diversity regularizer to prevent collapse, and a multi-depth anchor to stabilize adaptation. We show that steering early representations is the most effective strategy, and that the same primitive transfers across convolutional and Transformer architectures. Across CIFAR-10-C, CIFAR-100-C, and ImageNet-C, SPeaR consistently matches or outperforms methods that adapt orders of magnitude more parameters, remains robust across a wide range of batch sizes, and preserves source-domain performance during continual adaptation.

In many real-world planning tasks, agents must tackle uncertainty about the environment's state and variability in the outcomes of any chosen policy. We address both forms of uncertainty as a first step toward safer algorithms in partially observable settings. Specifically, we extend Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL)-which models the entire return distribution for fully observable domains-to Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), allowing an agent to learn the distribution of returns for each conditional plan. Concretely, we introduce new distributional Bellman operators for partial observability and prove their convergence under the supremum p-Wasserstein metric. We also propose a finite representation of these return distributions via psi-vectors, generalizing the classical alpha-vectors in POMDP solvers. Building on this, we develop Distributional Point-Based Value Iteration (DPBVI), which integrates psi-vectors into a standard point-based backup procedure-bridging DistRL and POMDP planning. By tracking return distributions, DPBVI lays the foundation for future risk-sensitive control in domains where rare, high-impact events must be carefully managed. We provide source code to foster further research in robust decision-making under partial observability.

Transformer models built on the attention mechanism have become a central building block in modern deep learning, yet softmax attention remains a major bottleneck for long-context workloads. While FlashAttention makes the forward and first backward passes I/O-efficient, it does not support backward-over-backward (BoB), which enables exact differentiation through the backward pass for applications such as second-order optimization, test-time training, gradient-based memory, and meta-learning. Existing BoB implementations either materialize large intermediate tensors or exhaust GPU memory at long sequence lengths. We present FlashBoB, an exact, I/O-efficient algorithm for BoB in softmax attention that keeps computation within on-chip tiles and avoids all $N \times N$ intermediate tensors, where $N$ is the sequence length. The key insight is a hierarchical affine structure in the softmax double backward: two row-wise scalars determine all outputs through affine transformations. This yields a two-pass schedule with bounded on-chip static random-access memory (SRAM) usage and minimal off-chip high-bandwidth memory (HBM) traffic. FlashBoB achieves $\Theta(N^2 d^2/M)$ HBM traffic ($d$ is the head dimension and $M$ is the memory size) and, within the standard FlashAttention-style score-recomputation model, matches the inherited large-cache lower bound for exact forward attention. Empirically, it scales exact attention BoB to $N=262\text{K}$ on a single A100 80GB GPU, where prior PyTorch exact baselines fail by $N=16\text{K}$, and is up to $6.3\times$ faster than FlashBack. These results make exact second-order attention practical at long-context sequence lengths where prior implementations cannot run efficiently.

New Guinea is the world's richest island flora (~2,856 orchid species), yet most species are represented by only a handful of photographs, far fewer than direct species-level classification requires. Methods for fine-grained identification in such species-rich, data-poor floras are needed, and it remains unclear which backbone architecture and pretraining strategy best support them. We built a two-stage system that first predicts the genus of a query photograph, then retrieves visually similar reference images of candidate species using FAISS. We compared four pretrained backbones – two Vision Transformers (ViTs; DINOv2, BioCLIP 2) and two CNNs (ConvNeXt V2-L, EfficientNetV2-L) – fine-tuned under an identical protocol on a fixed, species-stratified partition of 16,701 photographs spanning 120 genera and 1,350 species, assessing accuracy, calibration, error structure, species retrieval, and open-set detection of novel genera. DINOv2 attained the best genus performance (macro top-1 66.9%, 95% CI 63.7-70.6; global top-1 88.9%); both ViTs outranked both CNNs, and general-purpose self-supervised pretraining (DINOv2) outperformed domain-matched biological pretraining (BioCLIP 2) by 7.1 points of macro top-1. Errors concentrated on two abundant genera acting as error attractors. DINOv2 embeddings achieved species Recall@5 of 86.6% and genus Recall@5 of 98.7%; temperature scaling reduced every backbone's Expected Calibration Error to about 0.03; and a distance-based open-set gate flagged unseen genera (mean AUROC 0.958). A self-supervised Vision-Transformer backbone combined with embedding retrieval is an effective, deployable strategy for fine-grained identification in species-rich, data-poor floras. The system is released as an open web application (the New Guinea Orchid Identifier), offering a practical template for other hyperdiverse, under-documented taxa.

Edge deployment motivates forecasting models with compact parameter storage and low-bit representations. Deep equilibrium models (DEQs) obtain implicit depth by repeatedly applying a shared layer, reducing the parameter cost of explicit layer stacking. Their usual Anderson solver, however, searches for update coefficients in the continuous real domain. We propose Q-DEQ, which formulates local updates in DEQ forward solving as discrete optimization problems. Candidate directions are constructed from the current state and iteration history, and a local quadratic residual model is used to evaluate their combinations. Binary encoding of the direction coefficients yields a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem that can be solved by simulated annealing (SA) or a coherent Ising machine (CIM). After fixed-point solving, a re-forward pass applies W8A8 fake quantization to the shared layer's weights and activations. We evaluate Q-DEQ with an iTransformer backbone on five multivariate time series forecasting datasets. Relative MSE differences from the explicit multi-layer baseline range from $-1.16\%$ to $+2.90\%$, with lower MSE on two datasets. DEQ parameter sharing reduces parameter counts by factors of $1.80\times$–$3.82\times$; combined with W8A8, static weight storage is reduced by factors of $4.3\times$–$12.8\times$. Local QUBO problems solved using CPU-based SA and the Kaiwu CIM physical backend produce closely matching downstream forecasts. These results establish local discrete solving as a viable component of DEQ time series forecasting and provide a route for executing fixed-point updates through different combinatorial optimization backends.

Dense pass surfaces give, for every pitch cell, whether a pass played there would arrive, whether the carrier would choose it, and what the possession would then be worth. The networks that draw them read the state as a raster of per-cell counts, losing where inside a cell each player stands. LiDAR detectors, bird's-eye-view perception and graph weather models move entity features onto a grid, binning each entity to a cell or learning the transfer. We evaluate the interpolated form: each player's features are scattered bilinearly onto the grid at the player's measured coordinates, so the surface loss trains the per-player encoder end to end. Those systems adopt an interface; this paper measures one. On 53,628 passes from the 2022 World Cup, painting improves selection likelihood over the same core fed rasters alone by about a quarter of a nat: in every match of an eight-fold cross-validation, with every arm tuned over five seeds, and after retraining on seven Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga matches from another provider. Thirteen pre-specified studies locate the gain: painting the nine raw player features with no encoder carries three quarters of it, and the learned encoder and message passing add a smaller, resolved increment. Painting also helps the original SoccerMap and a canonical U-Net, whereas offset channels, a finer raster, an attention painter and a raster-free decoder do not. Frozen across the provider boundary the likelihood advantage is lost; injected tracking error compresses it. These results concern observed-endpoint prediction, not calibrated evaluation of hypothetical passes.

Neural operators are data-driven models that learn mappings from inputs that parameterize partial differential equations, such as spatially varying coefficients, initial conditions, forcing terms, boundary conditions, or geometries, to solution fields or quantities of interest. Once trained, they can serve as surrogates for classical numerical solvers in many-query settings that require repeated evaluations for varying inputs. We address the question of when, and then why, neural operator surrogates outperform classical numerical solvers, in terms of cost for a given accuracy. We focus on the post-training, many-query limit, in which data-acquisition and training costs are treated as fixed and fully amortized. Even in this deliberately favorable regime for neural operators, there are regimes in which classical solvers outperform the surrogate models. We compare the cost-accuracy performance of neural operator surrogates and classical numerical solvers through a reproducible benchmark study comparing neural operators with problem-matched classical solvers on representative problems in computational science and engineering, focusing on prediction error, per-query floating-point cost, and wall-clock runtime. Neural operators are most competitive at low-to-moderate accuracy requirements. Their floating-point cost advantage depends strongly on the problem structure, arising when they avoid temporal or nonlinear iterations or predict a reduced quantity of interest rather than a full solution field. Additional wall-clock speedups result from dense tensor operations that are well suited to modern hardware. As the target accuracy is tightened, achieving the required accuracy with neural operators becomes increasingly challenging, and classical solvers outperform surrogates in this regime; thus classical solvers will remain important for verification and high-accuracy computation.

Text-controlled time series generation aims to synthesize sequences that follow natural-language descriptions while remaining faithful to real data distributions. Existing paradigms often couple semantic understanding and sequence modeling in a single continuous latent space, lacking explicit local semantic anchors and separation between global continuous attributes and local discrete shapes. As a result, key local structures may be smoothed, missed, or misplaced. We propose Shape Lexicon (ShapeLex), which decouples text-to-sequence generation into discrete symbolization of local shapes and continuous modeling of global attributes. ShapeLex first induces a reusable vocabulary of discrete shape units, such as rises, spikes, and sharp drops, from training data, forming an interpretable symbolic space. An autoregressive generator then selects shapes according to the textual description, adjusts attributes such as position and duration, and composes them in temporal order into a shape skeleton. Finally, a mixture-density scale head models and samples the overall level and volatility to restore realistic global scale. Experiments on twelve public datasets, real user-written text, and downstream forecasting tasks show that ShapeLex generates series that better match real data distributions than existing methods. In addition, paired supervision is automatically synthesized from the learned vocabulary, avoiding annotation costs that grow with dataset size and improving scalability.

How large language models (LLMs) integrate patient risk with clinical cost tradeoffs remains poorly understood. We investigated how four open-weight LLMs (Qwen-2.5-7B/32B and Llama-3.1-8B/70B) internally represent cost tradeoffs, how these representations relate to clinical predictions, and whether decisions shift as predicted by the specified cost direction and magnitude. Using a public diabetes dataset, we varied 11 false-negative (FN) to false-positive (FP) cost ratios across three phrasings and examined representations and behavioral outputs. Patient risk was linearly recoverable on par with conventional classifiers (AUC $\approx 0.83$), and cost direction was recoverable in every model. However, representational shifts in cost direction tracked output changes only in the two larger models, and responses to cost magnitude were predominantly direction-agnostic. Only 2 of 12 model-phrasings showed both opposing responses to increasing FN versus FP costs and cost-correct ordering. Representationally, a direction fitted on one cost side did not invert when transferred to the other, as expected under mirror-symmetric encoding. These findings suggest that LLMs encode risk and cost information but do not reliably integrate them into cost-correct decisions. Clinical evaluations should therefore include tradeoff tests, phrasing sensitivity, and default operating points alongside predictive performance.

Linear models with an $L_1$-norm penalty remain state-of-the-art for high-dimensional ($d > 1,000,000$) tasks, offering a straightforward method for solving real-world industry problems. Despite their widespread use in industry and utility, many $L_1$ solvers are not effective for general use, are prohibitively slow, and are ineffective in parallelization. This makes them difficult to train in an MLOps pipeline on large industry-scale corpora. In this work, we test several proposed “state-of-the-art” solutions from the literature and find that older methods are currently far superior for general use. We also identify several recommendations for academics to perform research that avoids erroneously overconfident results, which can prevent the transition to production use. Equally surprising, we find that a new and simple baseline, using LBFGS on a sub-gradient, is highly effective with minor tweaks, despite being dismissed in the literature for theoretical non-convergence. In practice, we find it is an easier-to-support and easier-to-scale method for production use.

Tracking neurite morphology over time helps characterize structural changes during neuronal development and deterioration, but long-term time-lapse imaging is resource-intensive and difficult to scale. Forecasting future morphology could reduce this burden. Existing neurite digital-twin models such as gated spatiotemporal attention (gSTA) produce a single deterministic forecast without representing variability among plausible futures. We introduce Morphology-Gated Residual Diffusion (MGRD), a compact stochastic surrogate that jointly forecasts twenty future neurite-morphology frames from ten observed frames while conditioning on morphology features derived from the latest observation. On controlled phase-field trajectories, MGRD reduces trajectory-wise mean MAE by 9.7% relative to a matched control while updating 4.46 times fewer parameters. On human iPSC-derived neuron microscopy, MGRD improves all four reported metrics over gSTA, including a 39.6% reduction in trajectory-wise mean MAE and a 45.3% increase in skeleton F1. Without mouse-domain retraining or fine-tuning, MGRD also improves MAE and skeleton F1 on mouse cortical-neurosphere microscopy across 10-40-min sampling intervals and forecast horizons beyond 13 hours. Repeated sampling provides a case-level variance score for ranking forecast difficulty. Retaining approximately 60% of the lowest-variance cases reduces mean MAE by 17.6% on iPSC microscopy and 16.8% on simulation data. MGRD uses 1.01% of gSTA's parameters, requires less than one tenth of its training-update time, and generates a 50-step DDIM trajectory 7.9% faster when morphology features are cached. These results establish MGRD as a compact stochastic surrogate for neurite-morphology forecasting and case prioritization across simulation and microscopy datasets.

Renewable forecasts are evaluated by statistical skill (e.g., CRPS), but grid operators pay for realized dispatch cost. We diagnose what drives dispatch value in a single-period newsvendor-style economic dispatch using real public data from two European transmission systems (CWE, DE-4TSO). Spatial coherence across forecast sites falls below the pre-specified 1% practical-significance threshold: a controlled ablation holding per-zone marginal forecasts bit-identical and varying only cross-zone dependence (10 configurations, 3 seeds, paired-bootstrap confidence intervals) shows a coherence gain of at most 0.64% of dispatch cost, indistinguishable from zero in 3 of 10 configurations, reached only under an unrealistic 8-fold forecast-error stress test. Decision-focused training, an established paradigm in this venue, delivers a robust 2.82-5.19% gain. A parametric Gaussian-copula approximation matches the empirical copula at realistic error magnitudes but performs worse than no dependence under extreme stress. A single-seed sweep shows that a 12% energy-score gain changes cost by less than 0.1%. Results characterize this single-period dispatch class; a lightweight four-period extension supports the same conclusion. For this dispatch class, spatially-correlated scenario generation provides limited operational value on its own; grid operators and forecast vendors should instead evaluate dependence models by downstream decision value and prioritize decision-focused training.