Machine Learning
Neutrosophic Ensemble Classification for Uncertainty-Aware Bearing Fault Detection: Evidence from Laboratory and Variable-Speed Industrial Benchmarks
Maikel Leyva-Vazquez, Dayron Rumbaut Rangel, Lorenzo Cevallos-Torres et al. (+1 more)
Machine learning classifiers for bearing fault detection produce scalar confidence scores that conflate confident errors with genuinely ambiguous predictions, and the conventional truth/falsity pair (F = 1 - T) is algebraically redundant by construction. We operationalize a refined neutrosophic decomposition of a Random Forest + XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble into four indicators – T-hat (top-class evidence), F-hat (best-competitor evidence), predictive
entropy I1-hat, and decision disagreement I2-hat – evaluated on two bearing
benchmarks (CWRU and JNU, 600-1000 rpm) under a leave-one-condition-out protocol. On CWRU, after correcting a file-to-class mapping error, the ensemble reaches 100.00 percent accuracy on three of four held-out loads (92.27 percent on the fourth), leaving too few errors for uncertainty analysis. On JNU, holding out 1000 rpm, accuracy collapses to 40.64 percent, below a majority-class baseline; Logistic Regression (57.91 percent) generalizes far better than the tree ensembles. I1-hat shows a robust association with error beyond T-hat/F-hat, while I2-hat contributes little; standalone Logistic Regression confidence outperforms the full decomposition, a boundary condition we report honestly. Two further results extend this: fusing a time-domain and a frequency-domain model of the same signal and scoring their Jensen-Shannon divergence beats that model own
entropy (AURC 0.29 vs. 0.36 on the standard split; 0.54 vs. 0.73 under a harder single-condition reproduction), the only indicator moving correctly under a CWRU-versus-JNU distributional-shift contrast; and, on CWRU alone, literature-verified bearing fault frequencies, correctly demodulated via the envelope spectrum, separate most fault classes almost perfectly (99.57 percent) using three interpretable features. Code, logs, and figures are released for independent verification.
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All authors Maikel Leyva-Vazquez, Dayron Rumbaut Rangel, Lorenzo Cevallos-Torres, Alexis Matheu Perez
Machine Learning
Hybrid Machine Learning-Assisted Raman Spectroscopy with Generative Feature Augmentation for Pharmaceutical Identification
Quach Thi Thai Binh, Ton Nu Quynh Trang, Thang B. Phan et al. (+2 more)
Rapid and reliable identification of pharmaceutical residues is important for safeguarding public health, ensuring food safety, and enabling practical Raman-based screening. In this study, we propose HyMLRaman, a hybrid Raman spectroscopy framework that combines deep spectral feature extraction, generative models, and classical machine-learning classifiers to identify six pharmaceutical compounds, including amoxicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, ibuprofen, and paracetamol. Raman spectra are converted into spectral images and encoded with several deep neural-network backbones, among which EfficientNet-B3 yields the most effective representation. The resulting 1536-dimensional
embeddings are then used to train downstream classifiers, including SVM, KNN, logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, and ANN, using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. The hybrid EfficientNet-B3–SVM configuration achieves the strongest baseline performance, reaching 96.31% accuracy and a macro-F1 score of 96.36%, outperforming the standalone CNN baseline. To address limited-data conditions, a generative model, a DDPM-based feature augmentation, is introduced in a PCA-reduced EfficientNet-B3 latent space. The low-data ablation results show that DDPM augmentation provides selective benefits, particularly for KNN with reduced training fractions, and that its effect remains classifier-dependent. Finally, an application-level Raman Pharmaceutical Analyzer demonstrates the feasibility of
embedding the trained model into an interactive Raman analysis workflow. These results suggest that HyMLRaman provides a practical and interpretable route for rapid Raman-based pharmaceutical screening.
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All authors Quach Thi Thai Binh, Ton Nu Quynh Trang, Thang B. Phan, Vu Thi Hanh Thu, Nguyen Tuan Hung
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Comedic Fool's Gold: Reward Exploits and Countermeasures in Conversational Humor
Sam Larson
We investigate automated rewards for training
language models in conversational humor, focusing on reward exploits and countermeasures. Two approaches aim to capture understandable surprise and predicted audience amusement. Controlled tests show that an
embedding-based surprise reward accepts word-shuffled replies as readily as witty ones. A fluency filter detects the shuffles, but the combined reward also rejects some witty replies and fails further validation. An audience model's predicted laughter is instead vulnerable to laughter cues in either speaker's messages. Normalizing these cues across speakers blocks the covered attacks, although unmatched expressions remain exploitable. Three reinforcement-learning runs evaluate training with successive reward revisions. The final run improves the combined evaluation score by 0.0903 and reduces zero-score sessions by 40%, but its humor-specific improvement remains below our preregistered target. These findings illustrate a broader challenge for automated reward design: countermeasures must block exploitable shortcuts while preserving the behavior the reward was intended to encourage.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.QM
Improving scoring functions for protein-protein docking with LambdaLoss
Richard Zhu, Darren Xu, Lee-Shin Chu et al. (+1 more)
Modeling
protein-
protein interactions requires accurate scoring functions that can rank potential poses (conformations) of a
protein-
protein complex to differentiate near-native poses from incorrect ones. Here, we propose a general framework for improving
protein-
protein pose ranking and other biomolecular interaction models using the LambdaLoss loss function from the Learning-to-Rank field. We test this framework by fine-tuning the energy prediction head of DFMDock with the LambdaLoss on an augmented
dataset of 2.9M decoy poses derived from the DIPS
dataset. On targets from the CAPRI score set
benchmark, our fine-tuned ranking model LambdaDockScore is better at identifying correct poses in its top-1 and top-5 predictions compared to EuDockScore, a state-of-the-art method. LambdaDockScore also improves upon baseline DFMDock ranking performance for scoring antibody-antigen complexes and
protein-
protein complexes with very large or small binding interfaces.
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All authors Richard Zhu, Darren Xu, Lee-Shin Chu, Jeffrey J. Gray
Machine Learning
FlashDiffusion: Fused Tiled Kernel Spectral Decomposition
Julio Candanedo
Diffusion maps, and kernel methods more generally, provide an interpretable nonlinear spectral representation basis for
geometric learning. In the
geometric limit, small bandwidth, these
matrices tend to be high rank and thus require materializing dense Gaussian kernels requires $O(N^2)$
memory. We introduce FlashDiffusion, a
matrix-free method that evaluates dense Gaussian kernel blocks in fused GPU tiles and couples the eigensolver to an empirical $\beta$-flow that selects the finite-sample resolution scale. A continuation over sample size and bandwidth warm-starts increasingly expensive spectral solves from coarser resolutions.
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Machine Learning
DualCast: A Dual-Path Language Model for Bimodal Financial Time-Series Forecasting
Wentao Zhao, Hongqiang Wu, Shanghang Liu et al. (+3 more)
Financial time-series
forecasting must capture price dynamics across heterogeneous assets while incorporating news available at prediction time. We introduce DualCast, a dual-path framework that extends a frozen
language model with a discrete financial vocabulary. Each log-return patch is represented by a learned summary
token and three residual shape
tokens, preserving local drift and
volatility while allowing shape patterns to be shared across assets. To improve codebook utilization, we develop adaptive frequency-equalizing residual vector quantization, which rebalances overloaded codewords without compromising reconstruction accuracy. The fast path trains only the new financial-
token embeddings and output heads on a frozen Qwen3-8B backbone. A toggleable LoRA adapter enables a slow path that conditions on the fast forecast and news available at the forecast origin to produce a revised prediction. The reviser is initialized by supervised fine-tuning and further optimized with a return-space group relative policy optimization objective that rewards improvements over the fast forecast. In zero-shot evaluations covering equities and energy prices at five-minute, daily, and weekly resolutions, the slow path achieves the lowest mean absolute percentage error among the compared methods in 8 of 12
dataset-horizon settings, including every longest-horizon setting. News ablations indicate additional gains in most tested settings, although their magnitude varies across
markets. DualCast thus combines a fast numerical forecaster with an optional text-conditioned revision mechanism.
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All authors Wentao Zhao, Hongqiang Wu, Shanghang Liu, Zhaochen Zan, Yu Zhang, Biqing Huang
Machine Learning
Conformal Adversarial Generative Ensemble
Ahmad Shahi, Mamehgol Yousefi, Brendon J. Woodford et al. (+2 more)
Accurate time series
forecasting is critical across various domains, yet traditional ensemble methods often suffer from the disproportionate influence of extreme forecasts. We introduce the Conformal
Adversarial Generative Ensemble (CAGE), a novel framework that combines generative modeling,
adversarial discrimination, and conformal prediction to enhance forecast reliability and accuracy. CAGE employs multiple generative models to produce initial forecasts, which are then evaluated by a discriminative component using conformal prediction techniques. P-values derived from nonconformity scores help dynamically adjust model weights, minimizing the impact of unreliable forecasts. This approach ensures that only the most credible predictions contribute to the final ensemble output. Our empirical and statistical analyses of time series data from New Zealand's milk collection and the global health data from the public owid-monkeypox
dataset show that the CAGE outperforms traditional ensemble methods, especially in handling outliers and noisy data. By incorporating conformal prediction, CAGE delivers accurate and statistically rigorous forecasts, enhancing decision-making. We have demonstrated performance on two different
datasets deliberately to showcase that the proposed method offers a versatile solution potentially applicable across finance, weather, and supply chain management.
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All authors Ahmad Shahi, Mamehgol Yousefi, Brendon J. Woodford, Farhaan Mirza, Tapabrata Chakraborti
Machine Learning
A Data-Free Physics-Informed Neural Operator for Level-Set Interface Advection
Muhammad Akbar Khan
Operators for interfacial problems are trained on reference solutions produced by the solver they are intended to replace. This work develops a data-free physics-informed neural operator for level-set interface advection, in which the interface is the equation's unknown and the operator maps an initial interface to the full spatiotemporal trajectory under a prescribed flow. Training uses only the transport residual and a
geometric constraint; no reference solution enters the objective at any point. A spacetime
Fourier backbone emits the entire trajectory in one pass, and the initial condition is imposed by construction rather than by penalty, which removes the competition between the anchoring term and the residual that otherwise arises when no solution data are available. Supervised and hybrid operators are trained under an identical architecture, family, budget and test set, and are reported throughout as baselines that quantify what refusing labels costs. On a reversed single
vortex the data-free operator reaches 1.614 +/- 0.067% relative L2 error on 100 held-out initial interfaces against 0.369 +/- 0.035% for the supervised baseline, a factor of 4.4; on solid-body rotation the corresponding figures are 3.804 +/- 1.075% and 2.576 +/- 0.159%, a factor of 1.5. The two
benchmarks rank the arms differently, and the difference is attributable to the eikonal constraint: the exact solution violates |grad phi| = 1 over 0.3% of the domain under rotation and 86.9% under the
vortex. Where the constraint is valid the physics-trained operator conserves enclosed area 2.7 times better than the supervised baseline despite a larger field error, and a hybrid arm using eight reference solutions outperforms a supervised arm using sixteen.
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Machine Learning
A Moving-Horizon Approximate Branch-and-Reduce Method for Deep Classification Trees
Chenxuanyin Zou, Jiayang Ren, Qiangqiang Mao et al. (+3 more)
Despite the importance for interpretability, decision trees face severe scalability challenges. Existing global optimal methods are often limited by binary feature selection and shallow tree depths, whereas traditional heuristic approaches frequently sacrifice predictive accuracy. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a moving-horizon approximate branch-and-reduce method to train near-optimal deep classification trees on large-scale
datasets with continuous features. Built on a hierarchical root-subtree optimization framework, the method solves the root-level problem via branch-and-reduce while approximating the induced subtree problem using greedy heuristics. Although the underlying framework is capable of guaranteeing global optimality, the approximation, which functions as a lookahead rollout in a reinforcement learning context, significantly boosts efficiency for deeper structures. A low-cost moving-horizon strategy is then employed to iteratively refine model accuracy. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that our method exceeds the testing accuracy of existing heuristic baselines while offering significantly greater scalability, in terms of both
dataset size and tree depth, than global optimal solvers.
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All authors Chenxuanyin Zou, Jiayang Ren, Qiangqiang Mao, Jing Liu, Marcus Lai, Yankai Cao
Machine Learning
EHR2Trace: Auditable EHR Data Infrastructure for Patient World Models and Clinical Agents
Xinye Yang, Yuli Wang, Cheng Ting Lin et al. (+1 more)
Patient world models and clinical
agents aim to predict changes in patients' health and support clinical work. Developing these systems requires reliable histories of patient conditions, treatments, and the information available at each decision. Electronic health records (EHRs) contain these histories, but differences in how events are recorded make them difficult to use consistently. We present EHR2Trace, a system that converts EHRs from different sources into traceable patient events for model training and evaluation. It links events to source records, separates event time from information availability, and distinguishes medication orders, dispensing, and administration. A shared event representation supports both OMOP and MEDS exports, with automated validation and reproducible builds. Across three clinical
datasets, EHR2Trace converted 846.4 million events, with every applicable check passing except one unit-consistency check on MIMIC-IV, and detected all 28 injected faults. A controlled prediction experiment showed that assigning later diagnoses to admission time substantially inflated measured performance, and that a model trained on such data lost accuracy when deployed on histories filtered by availability. EHR2Trace provides a reusable data foundation for patient world models and clinical
agents, helping researchers inspect patient histories, check conversion decisions, and evaluate models with explicit data rules.
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All authors Xinye Yang, Yuli Wang, Cheng Ting Lin, Harrison Bai
Machine Learning
HeadGuard: Selective Head Protection for Low-Bit VLM KV-Cache Quantization
Nenad Banfic
Low-bit key-value (KV) cache quantization saves storage but can sharply degrade
vision-
language model (VLM) accuracy. We introduce HeadGuard, a composable head-protection method that augments a base KV-cache quantizer with a fixed high-precision mask. Image-sensitivity and output-sensitivity scores select physical KV heads offline, with approximately 1/8 protected in the main experiments; their image keys and optionally values remain in bfloat16 (BF16), while the base quantizes unprotected image entries. Across eight VLMs, three base quantizers, and eight
benchmarks (six discriminative and two generative), HeadGuard recovers a substantial fraction of lost accuracy on weaker quantizers, with the strongest gains for Qwen and InternVL. At 2 bits, the six-task discriminative mean over eight models rises from 0.436 to 0.580 on the weakest base; protection can also improve generated answers and caption fidelity to BF16 outputs. Mean accuracy gains persist across all three quantizers with both tested calibration
datasets. Keys-only protection retains substantial recovery at lower modeled storage cost. Evaluated through simulated quantization, HeadGuard offers a composable way to improve low-bit VLM accuracy without replacing the underlying quantizer.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
OpenAI-HuggingFace: A Reproduction & Lessons for Alignment Testing
Stewart Slocum, Malayandi Palan, Christopher Chute et al. (+2 more)
In July 2026, OpenAI's
agents coordinated over channels outside their intended environment to breach Hugging Face's secured infrastructure. Could existing
alignment testing practices have foreseen this incident? If not, what needs to change? We explore these questions. First, we identify the misaligned behaviors that caused this incident. Then, we show how to elicit these behaviors from publicly available models manually and that
auditing agents can do the same if given a large compute budget. Based on our results, we propose directions to improve
alignment testing. Concretely, in this project: (1) We reproduce the misaligned AI behaviors that led to the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident in an environment that simulates the original pipelines and tools, with publicly available models. (2) We demonstrate that an
auditing agent can elicit similar behaviors given high-level qualitative descriptions. (3) We observe that a key ingredient for doing so is compute. The compute required to reproduce each behavior varies greatly, suggesting that the range of misaligned behaviors that can be successfully elicited scales with compute. (4) We show that a simple in-context reinforcement learning (RL)
algorithm significantly reduces the compute required to elicit these behaviors. The above results motivate the need for automated
alignment testing methods that scale with compute - and in light of the cost of compute, that do this efficiently. Our work indicates that RL is a promising direction to do so. We release our code and transcripts.
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All authors Stewart Slocum, Malayandi Palan, Christopher Chute, Michael Kim, Benjamin Van Roy
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR
Data Processing for Offline Evaluation in Recommender Systems: a Survey
Alberto Carlo Maria Mancino, Angela Di Fazio, Danilo Danese et al. (+5 more)
Offline evaluation is the dominant experimental paradigm in recommender systems research, enabling reproducible and cost-effective comparisons on historical interaction data. Yet, while considerable
attention has been devoted to recommendation models and evaluation methodologies, the data processing decisions that precede model training have received less scrutiny. These decisions determine the information available to recommendation
algorithms and can affect the comparability and reproducibility of experimental results. This survey provides a systematic, cross-domain characterisation of data processing practices for the offline evaluation of recommender systems. We examine the data-centric pipeline, from
dataset selection and interaction representation to data preparation,
multimodal feature extraction, and train-validation-test splitting. Our analysis spans recommendation paradigms, including collaborative, sequential, session-based, graph-based, knowledge-aware, context-aware,
multimodal,
federated, cross-domain, contrastive-learning, and LLM-based recommendation. Beyond reviewing existing practices, we introduce a unified framework and taxonomy for describing data transformations and feature-extraction strategies, distinguishing data preparation from the extraction of representations from
multimodal side information. Our empirical analysis reveals a landscape dominated by a narrow set of
dataset-level transformations, particularly support-driven filtering, while representation-dependent transformations remain less common. We further identify substantial heterogeneity in how auxiliary information is prepared and represented, as well as inconsistencies in the specification of data splitting protocols, where similar labels may conceal different experimental conditions.
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All authors Alberto Carlo Maria Mancino, Angela Di Fazio, Danilo Danese, Matteo Attimonelli, Daniele Malitesta, Antonio Ferrara, Claudio Pomo, Tommaso Di Noia
Machine Learning
Federating Quantum and Classical Computing: A Privacy-Preserving Hybrid Approach
Carlos Cano, Daniel M. Jimenez-Gutierrez, Diego Sal et al. (+4 more)
Quantum machine learning (QML) is increasingly recognized as one of the most promising near-term applications of
quantum computing, viewed as a next-frontier candidate beyond purely classical approaches. Hybrid
quantum-classical models operationalize this potential by
embedding a parameterized
quantum circuit within a model where all other components remain classical-a design already applied to chemistry simulation, financial modeling, and image classification. However, their deployment in
privacy-sensitive, multi-party settings is constrained by the need to avoid centralizing raw data and by the requirement that modern
quantum circuits remain parameter-efficient to stay trainable at scale. In this paper, we address these constraints by evaluating
federated learning (FL) as a means of combining a hybrid
quantum-classical active party with a classical passive party, using Sherpa.ai's Blind Vertical FL (SBVFL) protocol to avoid centralizing raw data, while drastically reducing communication. We construct the split multiplicative periodic parity (SMPP)
benchmark, following common QML design practice. On this task, our simulations show that SBVFL raises accuracy from 0.7227 to 0.8757 compared to local training, closely approaching non-private centralized accuracy, and that the hybrid
quantum-classical model achieves this with substantially fewer trainable parameters than the classical neural networks and random forest alternatives. These results show that FL enables high-performing,
privacy-preserving
quantum-classical collaboration without centralizing raw data.
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All authors Carlos Cano, Daniel M. Jimenez-Gutierrez, Diego Sal, Georgios Kellaris, Joaquin del Rio, Oleksii Sliusarenko, Xabi Uribe-Etxebarria
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
A Bayesian Vertical Federated Learning Framework for Multivariate Reduced-Rank High-Dimensional Regression
Brigham Halverson, Sharmistha Guha, Jessica Bernard et al. (+1 more)
Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a leading
privacy-preserving framework for collaborative machine learning across decentralized environments. While considerable progress has been made in horizontal
federated learning (HFL), where data with common features is distributed across sites, vertical
federated learning (VFL), where sites share observations across distinct feature sets, remains less explored. Advancing
Bayesian high-dimensional multivariate reduced-rank regression methods for VFL poses unique challenges: (a) stringent
privacy regulations preventing local site data sharing, and (b) fitting local regressions overlooks essential modeling aspects like inter-variable correlations. In contrast HFL allows each site to fit a comparable model independently. We present a novel
Bayesian VFL framework for multivariate high-dimensional reduced-rank regression, termed BayesVFLReg, which enables precise coefficient estimation while safeguarding both feature and response
privacy. Participating sites use a shared random sketching
matrix to compress local variables into
privacy-preserving sketches. A central server collects these sketches where
Bayesian multivariate reduced-rank regression uses Gaussian scale mixture priors. For feature selection, we introduce a single-step post-processing strategy based on mixture-model clustering of the absolute posterior coefficient means to distinguish signal from noise per response variable. BayesVFLReg is computationally scalable for large, high-dimensional
datasets and facilitates efficient variable selection. Theoretically, we establish sharp non-asymptotic bounds on the posterior probability that the fitted density falls within a Hellinger ball centered at the true data-generating density. Comparative simulation studies and real-world data analyses show that BayesVFLReg reliably identifies sparse feature effects, even under feature correlation.
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All authors Brigham Halverson, Sharmistha Guha, Jessica Bernard, Rajarshi Guhaniyogi
Machine Learning
Monotone-Constrained Diffusion Models for Long-Horizon Production Forecasting
Temesgen Mikael Abraha and Yves Lucet
Forecasting a long horizon from only the first observations of a sequence is ill-posed: many trajectories are consistent with the same short history. We study this problem in oil and gas production
forecasting, where forecasts made after roughly the first fifth of a well's producing life drive development and abandonment decisions, and where a usable forecast must describe a monotone decline. We present Physics-SIMS-TS, a conditional
diffusion forecaster that combines negative guidance against synthetic artifacts, decline-curve constraints and an isotonic projection applied during sampling, spatial training augmentation, and an ensembled
stochastic sampler yielding a full predictive distribution. Across three jurisdictions and more than 35,000 wells, under a shared-space, validation-frozen protocol, Physics-SIMS-TS is the most accurate
diffusion forecaster in the comparison and is competitive with, but not superior to, ensembled
transformer forecasters. Its forecasts are monotone by construction at a cost of at most 0.5% in mean squared error, and its trajectory ensemble yields calibrated intervals after one dispersion factor is fitted per jurisdiction. On six standard
benchmarks a reversible-instance-normalization variant of the backbone is the leading
diffusion baseline. We also quantify four protocol choices on which the measured ranking depends. Code and evaluation artifacts are released.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Locally Private Inference for Riemannian Stochastic Optimization
Xiaotian Chang, Yangdi Jiang and Qirui Hu
We develop inference for
manifold-valued population minimizers when each observation belongs to a different participant and only locally private messages reach the analyst. The method releases randomized tangent gradients and combines them through Riemannian
stochastic approximation and Polyak-Ruppert averaging. Directly inserting a private data surrogate into a nonlinear loss can shift its population target, whereas conditional centring of the released gradient preserves the first-order equation. We introduce symmetric-pair regression (SPR) to estimate the asymptotic variance from the same private messages used for point estimation, without holding out participants or requesting a second release. We prove the central limit
theorem and consistency of the fully transcript-based sandwich covariance and intrinsic Wald region under local differential
privacy. Simulations across various statistical problems and
manifolds support the predicted decrease in estimation error and near-nominal coverage under moderate
privacy. An application to NHANES anthropometric data illustrates private estimation of a leading body-size direction and its uncertainty.
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Machine Learning
Classification with Abstention Under Class-Conditional Error Constraints
Mohammadreza M. Kalan, Yuyang Deng and Sanaz Hamidi
We study binary classification with abstention under separate class-conditional error constraints, with the objective of minimizing abstention while keeping both errors below prescribed thresholds. We characterize the distribution-free minimax rate of excess abstention risk, up to logarithmic factors, in terms of the complexity of the hypothesis class and the sample size. To make the framework amenable to computation with models such as neural networks, we introduce surrogate-loss formulations and derive finite-sample guarantees for excess surrogate ambiguity risk. We formulate the resulting learning task as a constrained optimization problem and characterize its computational complexity in the convex setting. Finally, we evaluate our approach on various
datasets and compare its performance with a competing method for this problem.
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Machine Learning
Concurrency-Aware Process Model Forecasting with Causal Nets
Yongbo Yu, Jari Peeperkorn, Johannes De Smedt et al. (+1 more)
Process model
forecasting (PMF) aims to predict the process model that will characterize a future period, thereby providing a process-level view of how behavior is expected to evolve. Existing PMF methods, however, forecast directly-follows graphs, which cannot explicitly represent concurrency. We extend PMF to causal nets by
forecasting time series of relation and binding counts and using these forecasts to reconstruct future process models with AND/XOR semantics. To evaluate the resulting models, we introduce a protocol that accounts for partial traces and constructs the workflow nets required for conformance checking. Experiments on four event logs show that the forecasted models achieve conformance levels close to those of models re-mined from observations in the corresponding future windows. They also outperform static discovery baselines, which retain high precision on the structurally stable log but exhibit substantial precision losses on the other three logs. Filtering infrequent bindings improves most conformance metrics, although it also removes much of the concurrent behavior captured by the models.
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All authors Yongbo Yu, Jari Peeperkorn, Johannes De Smedt, Jochen De Weerdt
Machine Learning
User-Level Handover Decision Making Based on Machine Learning Approaches
João Lima, Alvaro Medeiros, Eduardo Aguiar et al. (+2 more)
This letter covers a broad comparison of methods for classification and regression applications for a user-level handover decision making in scenarios with adverse propagation conditions involving buildings, coverage holes, and shadowing effects. The simulation campaigns are based on network simulator ns-3. The comparison encompasses classical machine learning approaches, such as KNN, SVM, and neural networks, but also state-of-the-art fuzzy logic systems and latter boosting machines. The results indicate that SVM and MLP are the most suitable for the classification of the best handover target, although fuzzy system SOFL can perform similarly with lower processing time. Additionally, for the download time estimation, LightGBM provides the smallest error with short processing time, even in hard propagation scenarios.
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All authors João Lima, Alvaro Medeiros, Eduardo Aguiar, Vicente Angelo de Sousa Junior, Tarciana Guerra
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
AutoGym: Blueprint-First Generation of Verifiable Agent Gyms
Aarati Andrea Noronha, Kavya Ravikumar and Carly Xiaoyu Lin
Training
agents with reinforcement learning requires a gym, comprising a task, an executable environment in which the task can be attempted, and a verifier that reliably distinguishes success from failure. Constructing such gyms remains manual, expensive, and static. Task sets saturate as models improve and are increasingly exposed to contamination. Synthetic generation offers scale, but single-pass synthesis produces tasks whose difficulty is largely cosmetic. Models comparable in capability solve them despite convoluted phrasing, and correctness must be adjudicated post-hoc by unreliable LLM judges. We present AutoGym, a framework that generates complete gyms (tasks, executable environments, and verifiers) from a minimal domain seed or prior model trajectories. AutoGym introduces three mechanisms. (1) Blueprint-first generation specifies the valid solution space, environment requirements, and verification criteria before the environment is materialized, making solvability a construction prerequisite rather than a property verified after the fact. (2) Explicit generation parameters control task
topology, interaction depth, capability axes, question obfuscation, and distractor composition, enabling fine-grained difficulty steering. (3) Active curriculum synthesis uses performance-informed calibration to adjust the distribution over these parameters as model capabilities evolve. Across productivity and temporal-
reasoning settings, AutoGym generates gyms spanning the capability spectrum, including instances that challenge frontier models.
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Machine Learning
TWIG: A Time-Causal Wavelet Operator for Autoregressive Forecasting on Irregular Graphs
Subashree Venkatasubramanian, David A. Barajas-Solano, Chuyang Liu et al. (+2 more)
We introduce TWIG (Time-Causal Wavelet Operator for Irregular Graphs), a graph-native neural operator for autoregressive surrogate modeling on static irregular graphs. TWIG transforms each node history into causal multiscale temporal features that separate recent variation from progressively slower
memory components, then propagates these features through graph-wavelet operator blocks with gated pointwise channel mixing. The architecture is causal by construction and designed for closed-loop
forecasting, where predictions are recursively reused as future inputs. We evaluate TWIG on three irregular-domain
forecasting problems spanning regional
diffusion, three-dimensional subsurface hydrology, and aerodynamic flow, with graphs ranging from 400 to 5,233 nodes and model capacities from approximately 70k to 10M parameters. TWIG achieves the lowest aggregate rollout errors on the subsurface-hydrology and regional-
diffusion benchmarks and ranks second on the 10M-parameter aerodynamic-flow
benchmark, behind the GPS
Transformer. Across all three settings, TWIG consistently outperforms the corresponding non-time-causal Graph WNO baseline. These results demonstrate that TWIG provides an effective and scalable approach to stable autoregressive
forecasting of dynamical fields on irregular graphs.
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All authors Subashree Venkatasubramanian, David A. Barajas-Solano, Chuyang Liu, Daniel M. Tartakovsky, Dipankar Dwivedi
Machine Learning
Augmenting PID Control with Deep Reinforcement Learning: A Hybrid Approach to the Industrial Benchmark
Zhengyang Gu, Joseph E. Hernandez, John Burtenshaw et al. (+3 more)
As industrial processes grow in complexity, traditional Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers are often insufficient for handling their non-linear, multi-input dynamics. We propose using advanced Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to prove its advantages in these complex environments. To do this, we rely on the Industrial
Benchmark (IB). The IB is a realistic simulation that tests DRL
algorithms against the key challenges of industrial applications: high-dimensional state spaces, delayed effects, and conflicting multi-criterial objectives. This testbed highlights DRL's core trade-off: while its final policies can often be unstable, its unique strength is the ability to autonomously discover optimal, non-obvious policies in multi-dimensional spaces where simple controllers fail. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid PID-RL controller that leverages DRL's discovery capability while ensuring Reliability. After developing a multi-objective reward function to make DRL viable, we use a twin-delayed deep deterministic (TD3)
agent as a discovery tool to find the optimal, non-obvious settings for the IB's 'Gain' and 'Shift' parameters. By feeding these discovered parameters to a simple, tuned PID controller, our hybrid model successfully combines all three characteristics: it achieves the optimal Performance and Efficiency of the best DRL
agent with the Reliability of a classical controller. This work demonstrates a practical methodology for using DRL to augment, rather than replace, trusted industrial control systems.
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All authors Zhengyang Gu, Joseph E. Hernandez, John Burtenshaw, Sean Scott, Thomas Cook, Chris Couch
Machine Learning
Benchmarking Hybrid Deep Learning Architectures for Predictive Maintenance in Industry 4.0
Zhengyang Gu, Joseph E. Hernandez, Thomas Cook et al. (+3 more)
Predictive maintenance in Industry 4.0 refers to using data from sensors, machines, and production systems to estimate when equipment is likely to fail, so maintenance can be planned before a breakdown occurs [1]. However, a model that predicts maintenance may work perfectly in the lab but fail unexpectedly when applied to real factory data [2]. To solve this "reliability" gap, we evaluated six deep learning architectures across more than 700 experimental runs. We focused on the two dominant approaches in the field: Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which process data step-by-step, like reading a sentence [3], and
Transformers, a recent dominant approach, which look at the entire sequence at once to spot important connections [4]. We examined whether
Transformers still outperform recurrent neural networks (RNNs) when the data includes noise [5]. We found that while
Transformers excelled at tracking stable, slow-moving processes, they tend to overreact to chaotic data, mistakenly taking sensor noise for meaningful signals [6]. We also found that the hybrid method that combines a Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) layer with a
Transformer layer is more resilient to noisy data from factory shops [7]. Functioning as a noise filter, the LSTM smooths out data
volatility, allowing the
Transformer to focus on the bigger picture without being distracted [8]. The hybrid model did not just improve accuracy; it proved to be significantly more consistent than complex models, delivering reliable predictions regardless of how chaotic the underlying system became.
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All authors Zhengyang Gu, Joseph E. Hernandez, Thomas Cook, John Burtenshaw, Sean Scott, Chris Couch