Papers

Problem definition: Solar electricity generation is a strategic component of energy portfolios designed to meet growing demand and reduce carbon emissions. Governments and municipalities encourage household photovoltaic (PV) adoption through upfront rebates and tax credits. Limited budgets require principled, data-driven policies that account for the drivers of adoption and the effects of incentives on adoption rates. Methodology/results: We develop a dynamic structural model of residential PV diffusion based on adoption decisions by forward-looking households that weigh the economic trade-offs between installing now and later. Adoption depends on return on investment and influence from neighboring adopters. The model segments households by home value and urbanization level, incorporates unobserved heterogeneity, and captures spatiotemporal installation dynamics. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods and detailed household-level data from Austin, Texas. In out-of-sample tests, it predicts installations more accurately than contemporary alternatives. We simulate counterfactual policies within the dynamic equilibrium of PV diffusion to evaluate rebate designs. The framework can also be adapted to study the adoption of other durable technologies. Managerial implications: A rebate offered for a limited period generates more adoption and emissions reductions than a prolonged, costlier program. This counterintuitive result arises from forward-looking behavior, neighbor influence, and accelerated adoption before the rebate expires. We also evaluate phased reductions and rebates differentiated by household segment. A two-step reduction outperforms multiple small reductions. Geographic differentiation improves policy performance, whereas differentiation by home value offers little advantage over a uniform rebate.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) scales language models by routing each input through a small set of independently parameterized experts. We show that copying this design into convolutional networks fails for a structural reason: parallel convolutional experts that read the same input channels learn nearly identical filters. We therefore move the expert axis from operator duplication to channel selection. We introduce Mixture of Channel Experts (MoCE), a structured sparse channel-mixing layer, inspired by MoE, that replaces pointwise (1x1) channel-reduction projections. In MoCE, an expert is a single output channel with a learned sparse support of k << C input channels. The selected channels are combined by a softmax whose temperature is predicted per input, so each expert can move between mean-like and max-like aggregation. A residual expert summarizes the unselected channels, and a load-balancing loss keeps channel coverage complete. MoCE replaces a dense projection whose cost is quadratic in C with a mechanism whose relative cost scales as k/C, and the predicted savings hold in measured wall-clock time. Across ResNet backbones on ImageNet-1K and CIFAR-100, transfer learning, EfficientViT, and a strong modern training recipe, MoCE matches or exceeds dense baselines and prior channel-selection methods while reducing MACs by 16.7% and end-to-end latency.

Continual learning faces the persistent challenge of catastrophic forgetting, where sequential task updates degrade previously acquired knowledge. While prompt-based methods integrated with pre-trained models offer a compelling solution by freezing the backbone, they often rely on static, task-level prompting strategies that overlook fine-grained intra-task diversity. In this paper, we propose Gated Adaptive Prompting (GAP-Prompt), a novel method that introduces instance-level adaptability to the prompting process. GAP-Prompt consists of three synergistic modules: (1) instance-conditioned gating, which dynamically determines optimal prompt injection layers for each individual image; (2) dynamic knowledge fusion, which performs instance-aware aggregation of current and historical prompts, enabling knowledge integration across tasks; and (3) shared prompt distillation, which anchors foundational knowledge in early shared layers to mitigate forgetting. Extensive evaluations on CIFAR-100, ImageNet-R, and CUB-200 benchmarks demonstrate that GAP-Prompt consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, on the fine-grained CUB-200 dataset, GAP-Prompt reaches 87.29% accuracy, approaching the joint training upper bound (88.00%) and outperforming existing methods by a significant margin.

Understanding human skill is important for AI systems that collaborate with, coach, or assist people. Unlike typical latent variable estimation problems which rely on single observations, skill is a persistent, compositional, and behaviorally grounded construct that must be inferred from patterns over time. We introduce Skill Abstraction with Interpretable Latents (SAIL), a method for modeling human skill as an interpretable, multi-dimensional construct inferred from naturalistic behavior. Our approach produces a skill embedding that is robust to transient performance fluctuations and learns a transferable representation of human subskills. Furthermore, SAIL supports skill-informed behavior prediction that generalizes across a variety of in-domain contexts. We represent each individual with a persistent skill embedding that controls a blend between expert and novice bases and is trained using counterfactual subskill swaps for disentanglement. This design encourages representations that are both robust to performance variation and structured for interpretability. We demonstrate across racing and baseball that SAIL achieves strong predictive performance and consistently improves behaviorally grounded disentanglement over the evaluated baselines, while also improving downstream AI coaching performance.

Iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) methods constitute a natural approach to nuclear norm minimization, but their convergence rates and the role of the weight operator have remained poorly understood. This paper establishes sharp convergence rates for IRLS methods for constrained nuclear norm minimization in low-rank recovery. A central ingredient is a new majorization analysis for the smoothed nuclear norm: we prove that the harmonic-mean weight operator defines a valid global quadratic majorizer. Furthermore, we show that this weight operator is optimal within the family of power-mean weights, clarifying why it improves over classical one-sided reweighting schemes that use only row- or column-space information. Under a Schatten-1 null space property, we prove global linear convergence of IRLS algorithms using a variety of weight operators, including the harmonic-mean weights. For IRLS with harmonic-mean weights, we prove a dimension-independent, locally linear convergence rate. We provide a counterexample showing that this dimension-independent local rate cannot in general be obtained for IRLS algorithms using one-sided weight operators, which predominate in the literature. Numerical experiments corroborate the theoretical results and illustrate the practical advantage of harmonic-mean reweighting across square, rectangular, and adversarially initialized recovery problems.

Highly overparameterized models often predict well despite interpolating training data in complex domains, challenging the classical bias–variance tradeoff. We investigate whether this “benign overfitting” phenomenon extends to equity return prediction. Consistent with recent statistical theory, we document two key phenomena: first, a double descent pattern in the ridgeless model's prediction risk; and second, that while the optimal ridge model consistently outperforms its ridgeless counterpart, this performance gap becomes negligible at large parameter-to-observation ratios. Ultimately, however, both models fail to outperform a simple historical average. This empirical evidence aligns with our asymptotic results under the null hypothesis of zero slope coefficients, suggesting that standard equity predictors lack true forecasting power—even within highly flexible, nonlinear machine learning architectures. These findings reconcile modern and classical machine learning in asset pricing: in the absence of a true signal, they asymptotically collapse to the historical average benchmark.

Reconstructing scattering amplitudes from finite, noisy, and mutually inconsistent measurements is an ill-posed inverse problem common to many reactions relevant to particle physics. We introduce S-matrix informed neural networks (SINNs), and demonstrate their ability to learn scattering amplitudes directly from data while respecting first principles. We further develop a novel data selection procedure, which uses the response of constrained neural network ensembles to identify a set of experiments compatible with first principles, and with each other. We apply this framework to $\pi\pi$ scattering, producing reusable amplitudes and correlated uncertainties without relying on a fixed functional form. We validate our results against residual model dependencies and training biases through closure tests and ablations. We find negligible impact of model architecture on our results. Our workflow unifies physics-constrained representation learning, data selection, and uncertainty quantification. Our strategy is transferable to other scattering processes, and other constrained physics problems limited by inconsistent data.

Recalibration can preserve conformal coverage after pruning while enlarging prediction sets and leaving more alternatives for downstream decisions. Directly searching for deletions that keep sets small is costly. We study whether a small candidate-gradient budget can approximate this search at lower cost. Candidate-Saliency Pruning (CSP) estimates the squared first-order change in two plausible labels' scores when each parameter is deleted. CSP averages these changes, combines the resulting importance with a base pruner, and selects the mixing weight under validation accuracy and coverage requirements. Independent split-conformal calibration supplies marginal coverage under exchangeability. We evaluate CSP on three classification tasks, two base pruners, and three sparsity levels against a squared true-label control that separates candidate choice from gradient squaring, under fixed recovery updates, equal total time, and restricted access to the training corpus. Before recovery, CSP reduces mean set size by 13.2% to 19.2% against the reference pruner and by 7.7% to 13.2% against the control in all six encoder cells at 50% sparsity. The advantage over the control shrinks with recovery to practical equivalence in all six cells at 1,000 updates, and at equal total time the cheaper reference pruner is practically equivalent in 18 of 18 settings. When recovery is limited to the retained pruning pool, CSP keeps a meaningful advantage in all six cells. Its value therefore depends on the time and data available for recovery.

Rapid and accurate fault detection in high-voltage transmission networks is essential for grid reliability and equipment protection. Transmission fault datasets are frequently imbalanced, and certain fault types produce electrical signatures that fall within the normal operating envelope, causing single-model classifiers to fail on safety-critical cases. This paper proposes a hybrid two-stage machine learning pipeline that decouples detection from classification. Stage 1 combines an Isolation Forest anomaly detector with an optional supervised binary detector through an OR-fusion rule; the supervised branch is allocated automatically during training for any fault class the anomaly detector cannot resolve, and is omitted when no such class exists. Stage 2 applies a Random Forest multiclass classifier only to samples flagged by Stage 1. Feature engineering is expressed as a per-measurement-point operator mapping six raw channels to eighteen features, including zero-sequence symmetrical components derived from Fortescue's theorem, yielding 18L features for L measurement points. On the TLFaultDataset, the pipeline raises Line-fault end-to-end accuracy from 31.3% to 95.8%. On an independent single-point dataset, the same framework attains 97.25% end-to-end accuracy across all classes including normal operation, exceeding the TLFed federated benchmark of 94.84% without GPU or federated infrastructure, at 0.05 ms per sample on CPU. Ablation on both datasets shows zero-sequence features resolving the three-phase versus three-phase-to-ground ambiguity, raising the F1-score of that class pair from 0.39 to 0.997. The direction of the zero-sequence signature is found to be system-dependent, motivating a learned decision boundary in place of a fixed relay threshold.

Deep Equilibrium Models (DEQs) compute predictions from a hidden representation unchanged by the model update. Training through this equilibrium uses implicit differentiation and requires solving an adjoint system built from the residual Jacobian. If this Jacobian is nearly singular along loss-sensitive directions, small perturbations can be strongly amplified in the adjoint response, producing large, highly sensitive gradients that can make optimization unreliable. We introduce Response Renormalization, a backward-pass framework that lifts selected near-pole denominators while leaving unlifted response channels unchanged. Collective Mode Response Renormalization (CMR) applies this correction in a low-dimensional critical subspace, while Phi-adaptive CMR computes a bounded response mass from a positive susceptibility rule. We derive dense and matrix-free collective formulations, distinguish exact gradients of a modified frozen-anchor residual from backward-response surrogates, and extend the construction to Structured Implicit Layers and Vector Attractors (SILVA). Across 23 multiphysics families spanning partial differential equations, three-dimensional fields, operator maps, complex geometries, and particle systems, CMR and Phi-CMR yield test errors no more than five percent higher than those from models trained with exact implicit differentiation in more than 98% of static and 95% of transient family-seed comparisons. Solver-index experiments show convergence toward the static adjoint, while physical-time rollouts retain predictive fidelity under the evaluated conditions. These results demonstrate that selective response renormalization can control near-critical adjoint amplification without globally damping well-conditioned sensitivity. Therefore, the method can make parameter updates more reliable while preserving the useful gradient information needed for learning.

Despite their remarkable success in modeling complex data, generative models face a fundamental tradeoff. Global approaches can capture full structural coherence but suffer from high computational costs, while local models are efficient but often fail to reproduce long-range correlations and global coherence. The renormalization group (RG) bridges this gap by seamlessly connecting spatial structures across different length scales, retaining quasi-local descriptions at each step while preserving long-range correlations. We introduce renormalization group flow matching (RGFM), a generative framework that systematically structures data generation across different spatial scales. By using an exact RG flow as the probability path, RGFM progressively generates data from long- to short-wavelength structures. To reconcile scalability with global structure, we exploit two key properties of the RG: quasi-locality and scale separation. We rigorously show that the RGFM probability flow can be accurately approximated by local velocity fields acting over a spatial range $O(\Lambda^{-1}[\ln L+\ln(1/\varepsilon)])$ for RG wavenumber scale $\Lambda$, linear system size $L$, and prescribed error tolerance $\varepsilon$. This property enables local generative modeling with patches of size $O(\ln L)$ and a computational cost that scales nearly linearly with the system volume. We numerically demonstrate that local RGFM reproduces long-range correlations far beyond its receptive field in representative one-dimensional distributions, while conventional local flow matching exhibits substantial errors at long distances. On FFHQ images, RGFM yields far more coherent and higher-quality samples than local flow matching at 64x64 and 256x256. Our results establish RG-guided probability flows as a promising route toward scalable generative modeling that captures long-range structure using only local computation.

LLM-based agents execute multi-step tasks, but their behavioral structure remains opaque: long unstructured traces resist the safety auditing and runtime monitoring that deployment requires. Existing approaches operate per-trace or success-only, so they miss the cross-run topology that links next-step and failure prediction. To recover that shared structure, we collapse an entire trace corpus into a single, compact finite-state machine (FSM) that serves as a structural substrate for the otherwise unpredictable behavior of LLM agents. Across twelve public datasets, the FSMs are compact (7-43 states), replay held-out data at >=0.997 fitness with near-identical topology across splits, and build in milliseconds. This substrate addresses both prediction goals. For next-step prediction, FSM-state context outperforms Agent Workflow Memory on every ground-truth-matched dataset. For failure prediction, per-state behavioral features reach held-out AUROC up to 0.94, and an online monitor ranks failing runs above passing ones from a partial trace, triggering early stopping well before completion. Behavioral topology thus appears shaped more by the deployment harness than by the LLM, providing a model-agnostic structural primitive for safety auditing and runtime monitoring.

Reward-based fine-tuning of diffusion models has largely inherited likelihood-based policy optimization developed for autoregressive large language models (LLMs). Diffusion models, however, are natively trained through velocity regression and do not directly provide the likelihood of a generated sample. Existing methods address this using transition likelihoods along stochastic denoising trajectories or evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) to approximate generated-sample likelihoods. These approximations arise from applying likelihood-based updates to models whose native training and generation operate through velocity fields. We instead take velocity matching as the starting point for reward fine-tuning. We propose reward-based velocity matching (RVM), which weights the velocity-matching loss by reward with an additional anchor regression term, requiring neither likelihood estimation nor likelihood ratios. RVM recovers Reinforce Adjoint Matching at the update level and contains DiffusionNFT as a special case, while ELBO-based methods are closely related through the same velocity-regression structure. This unified view isolates reward design and anchor velocity as principal design choices in velocity-based fine-tuning. Across text-to-image, text-to-video, and image-to-video generation, RVM matches or outperforms the evaluated trajectory-based methods. On Wan2.1-T2V-1.3B, it achieves the highest VBench Overall among the evaluated methods, with substantially lower estimated training costs than the trajectory-based approaches. For video fine-tuning, we introduce a dynamic-tracking reward that provides explicit motion feedback and improves both Dynamic Degree and overall VBench performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to provide prior causal knowledge for structural causal discovery, yet whether their direct-edge judgments and confidence can be trusted remains unclear. We systematically evaluate 12 instruction-tuned open-weight models across six benchmark causal graphs, five prompting strategies, and four confidence sources: verbalized, logit-based, cross-prompt agreement, and cross-model agreement. Under our language-only pairwise protocol, our evaluation yields three key findings. (i) LLM-based causal judgments are strongly recall-dominant: models predict overly dense graphs with many false-positive edges, while prompting mainly shifts the precision-recall trade-off rather than resolving overprediction. Gains from model scale diminish on the largest graphs and do not eliminate miscalibration. (ii) LLMs often capture causal relatedness without reliably identifying directness or orientation. Relative to published reference graphs, models misclassify 40.0% of indirect and 36.0% of reversed non-edges as direct edges, versus 28.2% of other non-edges. Moreover, 80.8% and 84.6% of these false positives receive verbalized confidence of at least 80%, revealing substantial overconfidence in structurally incorrect predictions. (iii) Conventional confidence estimates are unreliable, whereas agreement offers a more promising signal. Logit-based confidence frequently collapses near 1.0 regardless of correctness, while cross-prompt and cross-model agreement achieve better mean calibration and discrimination, though their advantages are not statistically significant after Holm correction. A benchmark-familiarity audit further identifies potential familiarity in five model-dataset pairs, all involving AsiaM. Overall, our results suggest LLMs are better viewed as sources of externally validated soft causal priors than as direct evidence of causal structure.

Molecular embedding models can serve as foundational infrastructure for computational chemistry and drug discovery, where reusable vector representations support property prediction, virtual screening, and retrieval. Most molecular encoders are specialist models built around a single molecular view, producing unconditional vectors with no language interface for varying the representation. We ask whether multimodal large language models (MLLMs), which natively process images, text, and symbolic inputs, can instead serve as general molecular embedding models that produce embeddings conditioned on both a molecular profile and a natural-language semantic context. We introduce MolEmb, a lightweight framework that adapts MLLMs by aligning molecular profiles with textual descriptions in a shared embedding space using a bidirectional contrastive objective. The resulting embedding model is competitive on molecular property prediction and supports cross-modal molecule–text retrieval in the same space. We further introduce MolCAR, a diagnostic benchmark for context-aware retrieval, and find that context-aware molecular embedding is primarily a data property of the supervision. These results suggest that MLLMs are not merely chemistry assistants or generators, but a viable and extensible route to general molecular embedding models.

Urdu light verbs contribute schematic event-structural meaning while remaining lexically related to corresponding main verbs. This study tests representational predictions derived from Butt's analysis using contextual embeddings from UrduBERT, DunbaaBERT, and multilingual BERT across 1,126 naturally occurring sentences containing seven Urdu verbs. Main and light uses show significant representational separation in all 21 verb–model comparisons. At the same time, same-lemma main and light centroids are consistently closer than mismatched main–light lemma pairs, supporting continued lexical relatedness. In a seven-way prediction task restricted to light uses, verb identity remains recoverable after the target is masked, with UrduBERT achieving 0.866 accuracy and 0.852 macro-F1. UrduBERT also retains 0.782 accuracy under a preceding-form-disjoint evaluation, indicating generalization beyond repeated local verb combinations. These findings provide computational evidence consistent with Butt's account that Urdu light verbs differ systematically from their main uses while retaining lemma-specific and verb-specific representational structure.

Group-based reinforcement learning methods such as GRPO for large language models avoid training a critic by sampling multiple responses for each prompt. A reliable critic could instead estimate token-level advantages from one response, but standard critic-based training recipes are often unstable. We study this instability and develop **Best Practice Critic Optimization (BPCO)**, a recipe that combines DPPO, value predictions bounded to the reward range, Monte Carlo value targets, unnormalized policy advantages, and length-adaptive generalized advantage estimation. Because the critic is used only during training, BPCO can also condition it on reward-defining information, such as a reference answer or grading rubric, that is hidden from the policy. Controlled experiments isolate the effect of each design choice. Across mathematical reasoning tasks with models ranging from 1.5B parameters to 30B-A3B mixtures of experts, BPCO improves a strong critic-based baseline consistently, and matches or exceeds a group-based baseline while sampling one response per prompt. The same recipe also improves learning with rubric-based rewards. These results show that a carefully designed critic provides a reliable alternative to group-relative advantage estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/QPHutu/golden_critic.

Discrete diffusion models offer a promising alternative to autoregressive generation by enabling parallel updates, but their sampling efficiency can depend strongly on the choice of the forward process and the sampler. For the uniform forward process, existing lower bounds for the standard $\tau$-leaping sampler scale linearly with the ambient dimension $d$, raising the question of whether this dependence is intrinsic to the forward process. We answer this question in the negative. We consider a first-order sampler based on the leave-one-out denoiser for uniform and remasking processes whose coordinate updates can be performed in parallel. In both cases, the sampler can correct denoising mistakes during the sampling process, which becomes necessary when many coordinates are updated together. Our main result establishes an adaptive sampling guarantee: up to logarithmic factors, $N = O(\mathrm{DTC}(X_0) / \varepsilon)$ discretization steps suffice to achieve sampling error $O(\varepsilon_{\mathrm{score}}+\varepsilon)$, where $\varepsilon_{\mathrm{score}}$ is the error in score estimation. Thus, the sampling complexity is governed by the intrinsic dependence structure of the target distribution, as measured by its dual total correlation $\mathrm{DTC}(X_0)$, rather than directly by the ambient dimension $d$. Our analysis proceeds through a Bayes-optimal auxiliary sampler that separates discretization error from score-estimation error. We also derive an exact information-theoretic representation of the discretization error in terms of the mutual information between different coordinates of the forward process at different times. This representation applies to general forward processes and, in the uniform and remasking cases, can be controlled by $\mathrm{DTC}(X_0)$. Numerical experiments on structured synthetic distributions illustrate the predicted dimension-adaptive behavior.

Recent advances in continuous diffusion and flow-based language models (LMs) have achieved performance competitive with discrete LMs. However, existing continuous frameworks still rely on decoders supervised with cross entropy (CE) because the flow trajectories are not guaranteed to terminate at valid token embeddings. Motivated by this limitation, we introduce ConvergeFlow, an embedding-space flow-based LM, which constrains the data predictor to the convex hull of token embeddings and trains it solely with the mean squared error objective induced by flow matching. Under suitable regularity conditions, we prove that the resulting flow converges to valid token embeddings despite errors in the data predictor, enabling direct token prediction without a CE-supervised decoder. We further develop three sampling mechanisms for controlling the trade-off between the generative perplexity and entropy. Experiments on OpenWebText demonstrate that ConvergeFlow achieves performance competitive with existing continuous and discrete diffusion LMs. These findings demonstrate the potential of the flow-based paradigm for language modeling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Na-Li66/ConvergeFlow.

Machine-learning-based anomaly detection is increasingly used in industrial control systems (ICS), yet most studies assume that detector training data is trustworthy. In practice, training data may be corrupted through compromised logs, labeling errors, manipulated historian records, or unsafe retraining processes. This paper evaluates the robustness of offline ICS anomaly-detection pipelines on the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) benchmark under training-time contamination. We assess 11 heterogeneous anomaly detectors under three contamination strategies: random injection, similarity-targeted injection, and feature-noise injection. The first two insert attack samples into the nominal training pool, while the third adds bounded Gaussian noise to selected normal training samples. These attacks are contamination-based rather than gradient-driven poisoning methods. Contamination budgets from 1% to 10% are evaluated using clean validation and test sets under a unified offline protocol. The results show that robustness is strongly model-dependent and cannot be predicted from clean-data performance alone. Injection-based contamination causes the greatest degradation, particularly for local-density and distance-based detectors, whereas feature-noise contamination has a comparatively limited effect. PCA, SVM, HBOS, and IForest remain relatively stable, while the tuned neural detectors demonstrate intermediate robustness. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of training-data integrity in ML-enabled ICS monitoring, subject to the evaluated dataset, models, and threat assumptions.

In this paper, we introduce the Inertial Manifold Neural Operator (IMNO) for solving dissipative time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). The long-time dynamics of such systems often exhibit an effective low-dimensional structure due to dissipation. Unlike standard neural operator architectures such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO), IMNO explicitly leverages the low-dimensional structure to achieve better physical interpretability, accuracy, and stability in long-horizon autoregressive training and prediction for nonlinear dissipative PDEs. For shift-equivariant PDEs, we further introduce a shift-equivariant variant (IMNO-SE) of the proposed neural operator, ensuring that a spatial shift in the input induces the same spatial shift in the output. This symmetry-preserving inductive bias substantially improves its performance in shift-equivariant PDEs. Extensive benchmark experiments are presented to evaluate IMNO's performance numerically.

Modern AI models such as tabular foundation models and gradient-boosted ensembles can outpredict classical methods, but provide little basis for reasoning about their predictions. High-stakes decisions call for models that are both accurate and interpretable as built. Local linear modeling offers a path forward: a smooth regression function is locally well approximated by a linear one, allowing a linear fit near each query point to achieve high accuracy without sacrificing transparency. The challenges lie in learning what is "local" and developing statistical tools for interpretation. Here, we propose local distillation, in which a black-box "teacher" guides a regularized linear "student" model at each query point. The teacher (1) defines locality by upweighting training observations with similar predicted outcomes, and (2) anchors the fit with its prediction at the query point, included as a pseudo-observation whose weight is estimated from the data. For interpretation, we add a small amount of Gaussian randomization to the local objective and use refits to assess stability: selection frequencies identify reliable features at a query point, and clustering the randomized fits identifies stable subgroups across the data. Under the lasso penalty, we prove that this randomization yields feature-selection probabilities that are stable under small perturbations of the training responses. Across 17 benchmark datasets, local distillation nearly matches its AI teacher's accuracy while producing a sparse linear model at each test point. In a high-dimensional cancer gene expression example, the framework identifies patient subgroups whose local models use different genes; this heterogeneity is invisible to a global linear model, and difficult to surface in a black-box model.

Older adults recovering after lower-limb fracture or hip replacement may experience complex recovery trajectories. Most of the time, these clinical aspects are studied in isolation, masking their joint impact on recovery. This study used the MAISON-LLF dataset, which contains multimodal sensor and clinical assessment data from 18 older adults recovering in the community after lower-limb fracture or hip replacement. Participants were monitored for up to eight weeks, corresponding to a maximum of 1,008 participant-days of sensor monitoring. Forty-six daily features were extracted from indoor motion, acceleration, step count, heart rate, out-of-home mobility, and sleep data. Five clinical outcomes were assessed every two weeks: the Social Isolation Scale, Oxford Hip Score, Oxford Knee Score, Timed Up and Go test, and 30-second Chair Stand test. We utilize an inherent relationship between multi-modal sensor data and different clinical scores and formulate it as a multi-output regression problem. We tested various machine learning and deep learning single- and multi-output regression algorithms to predict these scores simultaneously. The results showed that predicting clinical scores jointly was better than separately. The tabular DL multi-output regressor, NODE, gave a remarkable performance of MSE=3.96 and MAE=1.02 in comparison to other multi- and single-output regressors. The SHAP feature analysis further showed the importance of including multimodal sensors to provide a good estimate of patients' recovery trajectory. This work may support the simultaneous assessment of functional recovery and social engagement among community-dwelling older adults and ultimately help improve their care and quality of life.

Timely risk classification is essential in many clinical monitoring settings, where decisions must balance the benefit of classifying patients early for subsequent intervention against the value of observing additional data. Yet most existing statistical and machine-learning methods are designed for fully observed trajectories and offer limited control over key operating characteristics such as sensitivity, specificity, and monitoring cost. We cast the sequential classification problem within a multi-objective optimization framework targeting these three criteria. We characterize the optimal decision rule through a value recursion that quantifies, at each time point, the trade-off between immediate classification and continued monitoring. To estimate the rule from data, we formulate a constrained optimization problem that maximizes specificity while enforcing prespecified sensitivity and monitoring-cost constraints. We then develop an estimation procedure that employs a recurrent neural network to approximate the evolving value processes and a primal–dual updating scheme to satisfy the performance constraints. Through simulation studies and an application to continuous glucose monitoring for hypoglycemia risk prediction, we demonstrate that the proposed method yields accurate and timely sequential decision rules that adhere to the desired operating characteristics.

Time series forecasting (TSF) is evolving toward multimodal and agentic settings, yet using foundation models remains uneconomical in resource-constrained scenarios, where compact, specialized forecasters are more desirable. However, lightweight forecasters typically require substantial training data, limiting their use in domains with scarce, slowly accumulated, or privacy-sensitive time series. To address this dilemma, we investigate the challenging problem of few-shot learning for lightweight forecasters. We propose MetaCaster, a meta-harness-optimized multi-agent framework that uses agentic data generation to automatically train specialized lightweight forecasters from only a few examples and textual contexts. Our work highlights a new TSF paradigm in which agents act not as forecasters but as intermediary engineers that prepare efficient, task-specific forecasters for deployment. Experiments on 18 datasets, 23 state-of-the-art lightweight forecasters, and 14 baselines demonstrate that MetaCaster achieves both data efficiency and computational efficiency while maintaining high-quality TSF performance.

Anomaly detection is often applied to data stored in relational databases, yet most existing methods require flattening multiple tables into a single feature matrix. This flattening can obscure entity identity, schema structure, and multi-hop dependencies, limiting the detection of anomalies that depend on relational context rather than isolated feature values. Beyond preserving relational structure, relational anomaly detection raises an additional challenge: how to incorporate symbolic behavioral evidence into learned relational representations. To address these challenges, we study relational anomaly detection, where the goal is to identify anomalous entities or events in a multi-table database. We propose RAD, a rule-augmented relational anomaly detector that combines heterogeneous graph representation learning with refined symbolic rule signals. RAD derives candidate rules from random-forest paths over flattened summaries of the entities or events being scored, refines them into compact interpretable predicates, injects the resulting rule features into the graph model, and learns anomaly scores using reconstruction-based and pairwise-ranking supervision. To evaluate this setting, we introduce a relational anomaly detection benchmark spanning three settings: LANL cybersecurity event detection and two unexpected user-churn anomaly tasks derived from Amazon and H&M relational databases. Experiments show that RAD improves anomaly ranking over flattened tabular detectors and relational baselines under natural class imbalance, achieving the best average rank on AUROC and AUPRC across the benchmark. Ablations show that direct rule injection and ranking-based supervision are key contributors to performance, while edge reconstruction is not uniformly beneficial. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/noahd15/RAD_RelationalAnomalyDetection.

The quadratic growth of attention computation and key-value (KV) cache with respect to sequence length is a central bottleneck for ultra-long-context language models and high-resolution generative models. We propose ProxyFormer, a general dual-stream architecture built upon proxy tokens. In each layer, fine-grained local features are compressed bottom-up into a small set of proxy states; expensive global interactions are performed only in the compressed proxy space; the globally contextualized proxies are then decompressed and injected top-down back into the local stream. Because the local stream persists across layers, fine-grained information that is not captured by one compression step remains accessible for later refinement, alleviating the irreversible information loss of conventional one-shot compression. We further introduce factorized multi-level compression/decompression, layer-wise dynamic compression ratios, asymmetric dual embeddings, and a proxy-only KV-cache inference scheme. On a 16GB GPU with batch size 1, a standard decoder-only model can train sequences of only about 20K tokens, whereas ProxyFormer with a compression ratio of 64 extends the trainable sequence length to about 0.7M. A model trained with a 64K window retains 92%-95% retrieval accuracy on a multi-needle retrieval task with 1,048,576 tokens, and a model trained with an 8K window exceeds 94% accuracy when extrapolated to 256K tokens. Preliminary image-generation experiments demonstrate the feasibility of ProxyFormer for both pixel-space and latent-space flow matching.

With rapid advancement over the last few years, many different methods are now widely used for classification. However, training these models requires substantial labeled data. Active Learning is a potential solution to this problem. Pool-based active learning minimizes costs by querying only the most informative samples from an unlabeled dataset. Diversity-based approaches, on the other hand, attempt to select a representative subset of the data. There are many different objectives for determining the selection process, including exact K-center, exact K-median, and Greedy K-center. In this paper, we will focus on evaluating the performance of Greedy K-center across a variety of metric spaces: the raw feature space, a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) space, and a model-derived probability space (with and without entropy-based weighting). Using Random Forest classifiers as a baseline evaluator, our empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that mapping unlabeled instances into a predictive probability space and weighting the result by entropy often dominates the other options for active learning selection with Greedy K-center.

Interpretability is critical for machine learning models deployed in scientific space missions such as ESA's Ariel, where ground truth is unavailable during operations and physical plausibility must be assessed. While most explainable AI methods focus on feature attribution, this work investigates training data attribution through influence functions and introduces three key contributions for operational spectroscopy pipelines. First, influence is reformulated in terms of prediction rather than loss, enabling label-free deployment. Second, by leveraging the closed-form ridge solution of an Extreme Learning Machine, infinitesimal prediction influence is efficiently computed. Third, an influence-based conservative error proxy is derived by propagating training residuals through the influence sensitivities. Evaluated against simulated spectra, the proposed proxy correlates strongly with scale and shape-based spectral errors. Furthermore, influence functions enable the identification of the most influential samples and the approximation of the most harmful ones. Together, these results suggest that this approach can serve as an operational framework for scientific machine learning.

Space robots operate in extreme environments where hardware degradation can critically compromise traditional control strategies. While continual reinforcement learning offers a promising mechanism for online adaptation, it inherently requires access to a reward signal during deployment. However, precise reward computation in space is often infeasible due to the lack of external tracking systems and the overall complexity of the environment. To address the challenge of unobservable rewards, we introduce a reward-free continual learning framework that leverages latent-state world models. By pre-training a model-based agent across diverse simulations, the world model learns a robust predictor of the reward structure within its latent space. Upon deployment to an environment with severe hardware degradation, we freeze the observation encoder and reward predictor to update only the transition dynamics of the world model through unsupervised rollouts. By training the policy entirely on imagined trajectories generated by this updated world model, the agent adapts to altered dynamics without receiving new rewards. We demonstrate our approach across simulated planetary traversal, orbital navigation, and precision assembly tasks subjected to severe morphological failures.