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Wednesday 12 August

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP

Latent variable models for simultaneous EOV identification and removal in population-based SHM

The robust treatment of environmental and operational variability (EOV) is an open challenge in population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM). The difficulty is compounded in the case that the EOV signals are unmeasured. A common approach in conventional SHM is to apply projection-based methods that discard subspaces of healthy feature data, reasoning that the EOV signal dominates the variance of the measured features. However, a common pitfall of projection-based approaches is that when damage acts close to the same variance-dominant direction, damage sensitivity is removed along with the EOV. An alternative identifying assumption for the removal of particular unmeasured EOVs is slowness; the latent EOV process is characterised by its long temporal correlation. In this paper, the latent EOV is cast as a state-space Gaussian process, enabling tractable $\mathcal{O}(T)$ inference via a Kalman filter. A robust hierarchical Bayesian identification framework is developed that enables population-level identification of latent EOVs and EOV-free residual features, using a Laplace approximation. The approach is first validated on a single laboratory-scale benchmark structure from the literature, subject to thermal EOVs, demonstrating robust damage detection and EOV recovery. The method is then applied to a simulated nine-turbine offshore wind farm with staggered deployment and damage, where it delivers a substantial true-positive uplift over projection and cointegration-based baselines at matched false-positive rates.
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All authors M. D. Champneys, M. R. Jones, A. J. Hughes, T. J. Rogers, E.J. Cross, K. Worden

Machine Learning

TESLA: Taylor Expansion of Sinusoidal Learnable Activations

The parity problem–deciding whether the number of ones in a binary vector is odd or even–remains challenging for standard neural networks due to linear inseparability and the need for global interactions. We propose TESLA, an activation defined as a learnable combination of sine and cosine terms, enabling explicit control over polynomial degree and selective amplification of high-order components. Theoretically, we show that constraining TESLA's coefficients yields Lipschitz/Rademacher complexity bounds and shapes the training dynamics to emphasize higher-frequency structure. Empirically, on parity with input length n = 32, TESLA attains strong generalization with 100K training samples (approximately 0.002% of the 2^32 input space) and remains robust under heavy corruption, retaining high accuracy with up to 30% label noise. We also compare against periodic and frequency-based baselines (SIREN, SNAKE, and Fourier feature embeddings) on parity and Forrelation. Beyond synthetic structure, TESLA delivers comparable performance on ImageNet-100, indicating that activation-level degree control transfers to more general vision workloads. Code: https://github.com/KAU-QuantumAILab/TESLA
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All authors Daehwa Ko, Jaehyeon Kim, Seunghyun Ham, Jay Hoon Jung

Machine Learning

LoongReflect: Boosting Long-Horizon Reflection in Search Agents via Global Perspective Distillation

Large language model agents increasingly rely on long-horizon reasoning to solve complex tasks involving planning, tool use, and memory. A critical capability in such settings is reflection: assessing trajectory progress, identifying missing evidence and unreliable intermediate states, and deciding whether to continue, revise, or abandon the current branch. Learning effective reflection, however, is challenging because reflection is performed locally within the current branch, whereas its utility can only be determined by its contribution to the final trajectory outcome. This local-global mismatch makes outcome-based reinforcement learning provide only local, sparse and delayed supervision for reflective decisions. To solve these, we propose LoongReflect, a training framework that formulates reflection as a memory-control policy. The agent operates over a reversible trajectory tree using explicit reflect and backtrack actions. Reflection consolidates verified facts, missing evidence, and branch-specific risks into working memory, while backtracking removes an unreliable branch from the active context and preserves a concise corrective lesson. To learn this policy, LoongReflect combines two complementary signals through a look-ahead, extragradient-style coordination mechanism. A fast channel distills globally informed reflective behavior from a privileged teacher, with supervision restricted to reflection and backtracking tokens. A slow channel optimizes complete trajectories using outcome-based GRPO, aligning local control decisions with final task success. Experiments on multi-hop retrieval-augmented generation and mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements over outcome-only reinforcement learning and self-distillation baselines.
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All authors Zhixin Zhang, Xinke Jiang, Zhibang Yang, Weixuan Xu, Guohong Qiu, Xu Chu, Junfeng Zhao, Yasha Wang

Machine Learning

TailBooster: A Dual-Layer Generative Framework for Extreme Value Augmentation with Operational Validity Enforcement

Extreme events in air transport, such as severe arrival delays and abnormal air times, cause cascading network disruptions with substantial operational, economic, and safety costs. Such events are rare in historical records, leaving insufficient training signal for machine learning models. Synthetic data augmentation offers a principled solution, but conventional generative models under-represent distributional tails and give no guarantee against operationally infeasible instances, such as a short air time paired with a long flight distance. No existing approach addresses both limitations for mixed-type tabular records. We propose TailBooster, a dual-layer generative framework combining generative modelling with two anomaly detection layers. A statistical layer extracts extremes via the interquartile range, supplying tail-concentrated training signal to dedicated generative models, here a Tabular Variational Autoencoder. A deep learning layer then applies autoencoder-based cleaning, discarding synthetic records that violate the operational envelope learned from historical data. The framework was evaluated on US flight records across five dimensions: diversity, statistical similarity, fidelity, operational validity, and utility, the latter two being the primary improvement targets. Data-driven cleaning markedly improved operational validity, while targeted augmentation enhanced utility for extreme-event prediction. Across six regression algorithms, training on the framework's records reduced Mean Absolute Error by 47-49% on extreme air time and 29-57% on extreme arrival delay prediction relative to conventional synthetic data, with comparable gains when real records were enriched with synthetic extremes. Being fully data-driven and model-agnostic, TailBooster extends to domains where extreme-event prediction is critical and domain-specific rules are unavailable.
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Machine Learning

Distillation of Foundation Models for Time-dependent PDEs

Foundation models for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are trained on large and diverse collections of physical systems and can generalize effectively to new downstream tasks. After fine-tuning on only a few trajectories from a target domain, they can achieve strong accuracy in low-data regimes. However, these models are typically large and computationally intensive, limiting their usefulness as fast surrogates for numerical solvers. We propose Teacher Rollout Extension (TREX), a knowledge distillation framework that transfers the predictive capability of a pretrained foundation model into a compact and efficient student. Starting from a fine-tuned teacher, TREX augments limited downstream data by generating long synthetic trajectories through teacher rollouts, optionally with periodic noise injection. This procedure samples from the teacher-induced rollout distribution without requiring explicit knowledge of the initial-condition distribution, while exposing the student to long-horizon states and local recovery behavior around states encountered during autoregressive prediction. The student can further incorporate task-specific inductive biases, such as equivariance, that the teacher does not necessarily enforce. We evaluate TREX on multiple PDE benchmarks. The resulting students can match or surpass the teacher's accuracy while reducing the number of parameters by several orders of magnitude and achieving more than an order-of-magnitude speedup in inference.
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All authors Daniel Musekamp, Boshra Ariguib, Andrei Manolache, Mathias Niepert

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

LODESTAR: Robust Entropy-Based Answer Selection in Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Question Answering – Directing Frozen-LLM Entropy with a Reinforcement-Learned Prompt Polarizer under Misleading Passages

Predictive-distribution entropy is a strong answer-selection rule in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for question answering: across five QA benchmarks, selecting the answer a frozen respondent LLM produces with the lowest answer-token entropy lifts mean $F_1$ from 0.4769 to 0.5148 over the retriever's top-ranked passage, without gold answers. Yet this rule, which prior entropy-based selectors adopt, fails: a misleading passage makes the respondent confidently wrong, driving entropy down where the uncertainty signal looks most trustworthy. The failure comes from the passage the respondent reads, and the context it is read in is an input we can intervene on. We introduce LODESTAR: to our knowledge the first method to score a text intervention by the uncertainty it induces in a third-party frozen respondent, compared within one question. LODESTAR uses reinforcement learning (GRPO) to train, once and offline, a polarizer – a short fixed natural-language string inserted into the respondent's prompt and never into its weights, directing entropy so that entropy-based answer selection stays robust to misleading passages; training labels are built from gold answers and two LLM judges, and inference reads neither. With every competing selector under the same frozen respondent and candidate pools on 5,008 questions, LODESTAR attains the highest mean $F_1$ of any inference-ready selector (0.5339), the highest macro exact match (0.4136), and the highest GPT-4o judge score of the frozen-respondent configurations judged (0.6435); its three-seed mean wins all 70 $F_1$ cells against fourteen published configurations and is paired-significant on $F_1$ against every one. The gain holds in-domain on NQ-Open and out-of-domain over SQuAD, TriviaQA, EntityQuestions and WebQuestions. Ablating the polarizer shows it is what makes the respondent read a misleading passage less often (26.0% vs 30.3%).
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All authors Hung-Chun Hsu, Po-Jen Ko, Che-Cheng Wu, Li-Yang Chang, Chuan-Ju Wang

Machine Learning

A Factor Graph Approach to Scalable Multi-Output Gaussian Process Regression

Multi-output Gaussian process regression scales cubically in the number of observations times outputs, and dense kernel-matrix methods need bespoke handling whenever different outputs are observed at different inputs. We express multi-output Gaussian process regression as a Forney-style factor graph in which a nearest-neighbor chain orders a fixed candidate set of $C$ inputs into a one-dimensional sequence. Along this chain, latent Matérn processes evolve through linear-Gaussian transition factors, while the linear model of coregionalization mixes $L$ latent processes into $D$ outputs through a deterministic mixing factor and per-output scalar observation factors. Posterior computation reduces to exact Gaussian message passing on the chain at cost $\mathcal{O}(C(DL^2 + L^3))$ after chain construction, and missing observations omit their local factor without any covariance-matrix restructuring. The formulation therefore scales in the number of data samples and in the rate of missing observations, while remaining best suited to candidate sets in low input dimension. We compare the factor-graph formulation against an exact kernel-matrix baseline, a sparse-variational inducing-point baseline, and a nearest-neighbor baseline on a synthetic input-dimension sweep and on electricity time series forecasting. At low input dimension the factor-graph posterior tracks the exact kernel-matrix posterior closely, and the gap grows gradually as input dimension increases while staying competitive with both approximate baselines. On the electricity time series our factor-graph formulation matches all three baselines in forecast accuracy while scaling linearly in the number of data points, where the exact kernel-matrix method becomes infeasible and the inducing-point baseline remains substantially slower.
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All authors Wouter W. L. Nuijten, Esther G. van Pelt, Albert Podusenko, İsmail Şenöz, Wouter M. Kouw

Machine Learning

Disentangling the Expressivity of RoPE

Two accounts recur in explanations of the success of rotary position embeddings (RoPE). Expressivity studies associate periodic position information with modular predicates, whereas mechanistic and long-context studies emphasize positional anchors and local offsets. We formalize both accounts for fully uniform, finite-precision soft-attention transformers. We find that, if every rotary component is periodic, RoPE transformers recognize exactly the languages definable in past temporal logic with modular predicates. Conventional RoPE is different: The rotations it computes never repeat. This yields a precision-dependent bounded simulation of fixed-offset look-back operators, rather than an all-length modular characterization. Controlled experiments match this separation: Constructed periodic schedules length-generalize on modular languages, while conventional RoPE behaves more like a bounded locality bias and can impair tasks requiring position-invariant access to distant context. Altogether, our findings shed light on RoPE transformers, bringing theoretical expressivity characterizations closer to models used in practice.
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All authors Selim Jerad, Anej Svete, Jiaoda Li, Ryan Cotterell

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Policy-as-logic for robust reasoning over rules

In many practical applications of generative AI systems, from tax rules to airline baggage allowance, responses to natural language queries must respect written policies or rules. We present a hybrid symbolic approach that expresses policies in formal logic and at inference time exploits the representation power of language models for fact extraction to ground predicates, and an answer set solver for reasoning such that responses are interpretable, auditable, and as we show, accurate and robust under input perturbations. Specifically, we show this separation of extraction and reasoning steps outperforms policy-as-prompt and policy-as-code methods in most cases with ~10x reduction in token usage. The results point to the value of structured reasoning and symbolic solvers in conjunction with generative models to make robust decisions involving objective criteria.
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Machine Learning

DCM Bandits: Multiplayer Information Asymmetric Cascading Bandits for Multiple Clicks

In this work, we extend the Dependent Click Model (DCM) Bandits to a multiplayer information-asymmetric setting, where multiple agents interact with a shared ranked list and may observe multiple clicks per session, introducing new challenges for selection strategies. We study asymmetry in (1) actions and (2) rewards, providing sublinear regret guarantees for three settings where at least one asymmetry is present. Establishing matching information-theoretic lower bounds for these settings is left as an open problem. We further show that for small termination probabilities, the termination ranking need not be known, improving on prior single-agent results. Experiments confirm that our algorithms perform well across asymmetric environments and highlight the critical role of feedback structure, specifically the distinction between full versus first-click feedback, in coordinating exploration and minimizing regret.
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Machine Learning

Forward and Inverse Virtual Metrology for Phototransistor Gain: A Hierarchical, Uncertainty-Aware Approach for Small Production Datasets

The customization, optimization and stabilization of the process flow of a silicon bipolar phototransistor commits months of cleanroom time before a finished device can be measured, so a model that predicts device gain from process parameters before a run has value out of proportion to its accuracy. We study this problem on a real fabrication history, thirteen to fourteen process runs of a single device: a small-sample, hierarchically structured setting unlike the large-corpus regime of conventional virtual metrology. Decomposing the variance of device gain, we find that roughly half of it lies between process runs rather than within them, so recipe-only prediction is bounded by construction. Building on these findings we provide a forward gain predictor with a relative, uncertainty-aware signal, an inverse search that returns recipes for a target gain, and, as the foundation for all of it, a multi-level data-quality assessment tailored to the nested physical entities of fabrication (batch, wafer, die) with an explicit cross-level linkage score. The normalized dataset and analysis code are released for full reproducibility.
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All authors Mahshid Amirabgir, Lorenza Ferrario, Paolo Conci, Mahdieh Amirabgir, Giancarlo Orengo

Machine Learning

Small-Scale Experiments: Are We There Yet?

Scaling laws promised cost-effective experiments; six years later, they have yet to fully deliver. Instead, researchers have found them unreliable at small scales (starting at 4M parameters) and concluded that sizable models cannot be avoided. We show this is not the case: the confounding factor is hyperparameters. Small models are highly sensitive, but hyperparameter sensitivity fades with scale. This small-scale sensitivity makes scaling laws easy to miss because they only emerge on the fully tuned frontier, and reaching that frontier requires an extensive search far beyond what most ever run. By ablating the basic scaling law recipe, we show well-tuned hyperparameters matter more than any other ingredient. Further, we reveal why those hyperparameters become easier to find: as scale increases, the hyperparameter loss surface becomes lower dimensional. Nevertheless while scaling laws exist in small models, extrapolation hits statistical limitations. A holistic approach is required. Synthesizing our insights with the recent literature, we develop a new methodology for model-centric research and demonstrate it on a question that once took the field years to settle: where to place normalization layers in the transformer architecture. From small-scale experiments, we recover the large scale result: pre-normalization works better as models grow in size. With the right tools and a better understanding, small-scale experiments can deliver on scaling laws' long-awaited promise.
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All authors Nicholas Lourie, Kyunghyun Cho, Karen Ullrich, Sanae Lotfi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DC

User-Assisted Collaborative Distributed Inference for Efficient QoS-Aware Autoscaling

Growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) inference services requires scalable infrastructure, yet centralized serving costs rise with demand. We propose a collaborative distributed inference system combining dedicated infrastructure with resources contributed by service users. Dedicated resources provide baseline capacity for maintaining quality of service (QoS), while volunteered resources absorb increasing demand without proportional growth in centralized infrastructure. To capture stochastic and dynamic interactions among users, resources, tasks, and policies, we develop a high-dimensional generative Markov model with structured temporal factorization. The model supports simulation and provides a foundation for task scheduling and QoS-aware resource allocation optimization. We evaluate the system across user populations, resource capacities, and centralized and distributed scheduling policies. Simulations show that distributed scheduling becomes increasingly advantageous as the user population grows, improving request completion and P99 latency while substantially reducing dedicated resource consumption. These results demonstrate the feasibility of user-assisted collaborative inference for infrastructure-efficient autoscaling.
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All authors Alfreds Lapkovskis, Ali Beikmohammadi, Sindri Magnússon, Praveen Kumar Donta

Machine Learning

Air Quality Station Simulation via LSTM and Attention-Based Modelling

Poor air quality in urban areas is driven by a complex chain of processes and presents a significant public health concern. To better understand and control the mechanisms that determine air quality, cities deploy networks of measurement stations, and launch initiatives for collecting denser data about the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere. Extracting insights from the stations relies on their reliable and uninterrupted operation. However, hardware is susceptible to faults and black- outs that may result in data unavailability, which affects the overall quality of analyses. In this paper, we present a deep-learning model, called SATADL, which can infer complex relations and output multiple-hour-ahead air-quality forecasts. The goal of the model is to simulate the mea- surements of an unresponsive station until its operation is restored. The architecture of the model, which allows it to extract information from different aspects of the data, is described in detail and a careful examination of all of its components is provided. We demonstrate the performance of SATADL on four sets of air quality stations from around the world, by using it to simulate the concentration of PM10 for periods of hypothetical failures of one of the measurement stations, lasting for as long as 48 hours. A selection of baseline and published deep learning models were trained and used as a benchmark. The results show that SATADL per- forms better across different prediction windows, for both coefficient of determination and root mean squared error, demonstrating its suitability as a virtual proxy station.
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Machine Learning

Kernel Methods for Learning Operators with Multiple Inputs and Outputs

Learning mappings between infinite-dimensional objects is a central challenge in scientific machine learning. We introduce a general kernel-based encoder-decoder framework for operator learning that separates observation, representation, learning, and reconstruction. We develop this framework for multi-input, multi-output operator learning, where operators map between products of potentially distinct function spaces. Our approximation theory shows that, although the number of inputs and outputs can increase, the convergence rate is governed by the most challenging constituent approximation problem rather than the overall problem dimension. The framework leads to practical kernel methods with closed-form training and inference, combining mathematical tractability with computational efficiency. We further specialize the approach to multiple operator learning by introducing KernelMO, a family of kernel methods with complementary operator-valued and product-space formulations. Across five families of parametric partial differential equations, the proposed methods achieve competitive or state-of-the-art predictive accuracy while reducing training and inference costs relative to neural operator architectures and deep learning based models, offering an efficient and lightweight alternative.
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All authors Adrien Weihs, Chunyang Liao, Jingmin Sun, Hayden Schaeffer

Machine Learning

Towards Understanding On-Policy Distillation through the Lens of Test-Time Scaling

On-policy distillation (OPD) has emerged as a promising post-training technique for enhancing LLM reasoning. Under the reverse KL objective, the idealized optimum of OPD aligns the student distribution with that of the teacher. When the teacher consistently outperforms the student, this naturally suggests that OPD should yield broad improvements over the pre-OPD student. However, do such improvements extend across the entire range of test-time sampling budgets? In this work, we revisit this expectation through the lens of test-time scaling by varying the sampling budget $K$ and evaluating performance with pass@$K$. Across multiple settings, we observe two distinct patterns: OPD can improve pass@$K$ at both small and large sampling budgets, but it can also improve small-budget performance while reducing large-budget pass@$K$. We show one condition that guarantees such a reversal and an idealized reverse KL counterexample where it occurs even when the teacher has higher accuracy on every problem. To choose between two candidate teachers at a target sampling budget, we propose the \textit{Teacher Advantage Score at $K$} (TAS@$K$), which can be computed before OPD training to predict which teacher will lead to a larger improvement in pass@$K$. Across three domains and thirteen benchmarks, the ordering predicted by TAS@$K$ agrees with the observed pass@$K$ improvements of the resulting OPD models in 83.6% of experiments, providing a useful signal for teacher selection at the target pass@$K$.
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All authors Xinmu Ge, Zizhuo Zhang, Yu Huang, Jianing Zhu, Lin Yuan, Wanli Gu, Weichang Wu, Weiran Huang, Bo Han, Xiaolu Zhang, Jiangchao Yao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Located but Not Releasable: Silent Gate Inversion and Bounded Linear Release

A growing body of work reports that language models represent task-relevant latent structure that they fail to use. Whether such structure, once located, can be converted into behavior is a separate question that is rarely tested end to end. We submit the complete pipeline – detect, localize, and release – to a fully preregistered stress test on a 25.7M transformer trained on causal-evidence discrimination, where a known suppression phenomenon (latent causal structure present but behaviorally unused) has previously been documented. Every threshold, claim template, and decision-tree branch was hashed and archived before any corresponding data existed. Three findings. (i) Localization succeeds: interventions at observation-evidence channels of mid layers restore target behavior on otherwise-suppressed worlds (paired release advantages $0.563$ and $0.854$, 97.5% CIs excluding zero; best-site release rate $0.889$). (ii) Gating fails out of distribution: a detector calibrated to trigger on zero out-of-distribution calibration worlds triggers on 6.9-7.3% of held-out in-distribution generations and on zero of the 2,400 held-out generations that actually need it – a complete inversion that silently reduces the gated pipeline to its base model. (iii) Linear release is capped: removing the gate and injecting a per-instance linear direction unconditionally yields a monotone dose-response that plateaus far below the preregistered release margin (intercept $0.382 \to 0.311 \to 0.264$ vs. threshold $\le 0.08$); per-instance adaptivity adds less than $\pm 0.03$. The failure is doubly located: the detector is OOD-inverted, and the entire family of linear release directions at this site and resolution is bounded away from sufficiency. The two failures are dissociable, and neither overturns localization. Every number traces to a hashed artifact in the released audit chain.
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Machine Learning

Learning with Bilevel-Minimax Optimization for Efficient and Reliable Transfer Attacks

Transfer-based adversarial attacks craft adversarial examples using surrogate models to mislead black-box victim models. Beyond perturbation generation, transferability is fundamentally governed by the coupling of initialization, surrogate adaptation, and gradient dynamics. We revisit this challenge from a bilevel-minimax perspective and propose BMAT (Bilevel-Minimax Adversarial Transfer). The bilevel formulation captures the dependency between initialization and perturbation, while the inner minimax problem promotes surrogate robustness for cross-architecture generalization. Algorithmically, we develop an integrated bottom-up solver that combines a Soft Weight Modulator and an Implicit Gradient Approximator to enable ternary coupling among initialization, surrogate adaptation, and perturbation optimization. We further provide theoretical insights into the optimization dynamics of the proposed bilevel-minimax framework. Extensive experiments on classification and segmentation benchmarks show that BMAT outperforms more than 10 strong baselines across more than 30 victim models, improving both intra- and cross-architecture transfer and yielding up to a 2x reduction in mIoU. Code is available at https://github.com/callous-youth/BMAT.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Can Vision Models Read the Radar Display? On the Feasibility of Radar Imagery for Air Traffic Complexity Estimation

Air traffic controllers perceive traffic complexity through the radar display, suggesting that a computer vision model operating on the same imagery may provide a natural architecture for modeling controller-perceived complexity; however, whether radar imagery is a viable input format for deep learning vision models remains unclear. Unlike natural images, radar images are extremely sparse and self-similar, consisting primarily of a black background and a few visually identical aircraft blobs, while small changes in aircraft positions can substantially alter sector-level complexity. To test whether a vision model can capture these operationally important differences, we encode each traffic situation as a position image supplemented by five channels representing aircraft state variables, including heading, speed, and altitude, and train a Vision Transformer (ViT) to regress four intrinsic complexity components derived from pairwise geometric relations among aircraft. The model achieves $R^2 > 0.96$ for all four components, and a one-aircraft-removal perturbation study shows that its response changes proportionally to how much the removed aircraft contributed to sector complexity rather than treating every removal as equivalent. These results demonstrate that, despite its atypical visual characteristics, radar imagery is a viable input format for air traffic complexity modeling.
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All authors Hyewook Kim, Byul Kang, Seokbin Yoon, Keumjin Lee

Machine Learning

JAPE: Joint Anomaly Prediction and Intrinsic Explanation in Multivariate Time Series

Multivariate time-series anomaly prediction aims to identify whether and when anomalies will occur over a future horizon from historical observations. Existing methods primarily characterize anomalies as deviations in future numerical values, which may overlook subtle dependency changes induced by weak anomaly precursors and provide no native variable-level explanation together with the alert. To bridge these gaps, we propose JAPE, a Joint Anomaly Prediction and Explanation framework that lifts anomaly prediction from numerical-deviation modeling to dependency-structure modeling. JAPE is the first anomaly prediction framework to explicitly model evolving dependency structures for both point-wise alerting and native variable-level explanation. Specifically, JAPE (i) proposes a Decoupled Spatio-Temporal Representation (DSTR) backbone that decouples temporal and spatial modeling and captures lag-aware dependencies via learnable lag aggregation, thereby perceiving structural precursors before numerical deviations emerge; (ii) designs a dual-view alerting mechanism that fuses numerical forecasts with evolving dependency graphs for point-wise anomaly prediction, capturing structural evidence even under subtle numerical deviations; and (iii) presents Native Predictive Explanation (NPE), which directly reuses the predicted dependency graphs to rank variables by structural deviations without additional models or training. Extensive experiments on five real-world benchmarks across three prediction horizons demonstrate that JAPE improves average F1 and AUC-PR by 19.7% and 41.3%, respectively, while improving explainability with 26.6% gain in MRR.
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All authors Yian Wei, Yuanyuan Yao, Lu Chen, Xiangmin Zhou, Tianyi Li

Machine Learning

Reading the Gate, Not the Interference: Output-Side Interference Measurement Does Not Track Merge Collapse

Task-arithmetic merging works until it doesn't, and the field diagnoses why by measuring interference inside the merged model. We take the most direct such measure, the exact layerwise activation cross-term of a factorial ledger, establish its causal anatomy, and then ask what it tracks. The anatomy is clean: each block mostly transports and amplifies the cross-term rather than generating it; erased, it is regenerated by the untouched marginal paths to 99% of its norm unless removed late; its output effect varies monotonically with the displacement's angle (orthogonal displacements make interference worse), and a two-assumption model derives the angle law and retro-dicts the dose curve (R^2 >= 0.99). What the measure tracks is not what the field assumes. Behavioural expert-likeness is decoupled from it across four instruments. Its cross-condition behaviour is denominator-dominated: an instruction template pins the main effect to within 1% while the absolute interaction grows 111x from two to six merged tasks, suppressing expressed interference at k=2 and amplifying it at k=6. And where merging actually collapses, the cross-term is a bystander, not the carrier: across two collapse parameterizations at two scales, even erased persistently at every position, removing it entirely repairs none of the collapse. There the output-side ratio carries no method information under a common counterfactual, while two state-space measures the field already uses rank methods correctly at both scales. All 81 predictions were frozen before their data; falsifications are reported as such. Output-side interference measurement reads the gate, the denominator, and the displacement budget, not the interference. What fails a merge is the carrier-bystander split: collapse rides in the marginal displacements while the cross-term merely accompanies it, and only state space sees the carrier.
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Machine Learning

High-Order Liquid Evidence Encoding for Gradual GNSS Spoofing Detection in Autonomous Driving

Accurate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based localization is essential for safe and reliable autonomous driving. However, spoofing attacks can manipulate vehicle position estimates. Continuous and subtle attacks are particularly difficult to detect because individual GNSS observations may remain plausible while the inconsistency between GNSS-implied displacement and onboard vehicle motion gradually increases. Existing methods often rely on static vehicle-behavior features or a single residual signal and do not explicitly model this evolution. To address this problem, we propose a causal high-order liquid evidence framework for GNSS spoofing detection. The method first constructs a physics-guided GNSS–motion inconsistency residual by comparing GNSS-implied displacement with onboard-motion-derived displacement. It then forms separate evidence streams for the residual level and its first- and second-order discrete variations, with relevant contextual cues selected according to the evidence order. Each stream is processed by a separate adaptive liquid encoder, and the resulting temporal states are hierarchically coupled to predict spoofing at the window endpoint using only current and past observations. Experiments on three subsets of the real-world AV-GPS dataset show that the proposed method achieves the highest F1-scores among the evaluated temporal models on Dataset~1 and Dataset~3, reaching 0.9535 and 0.9777, respectively. On Dataset~3, it detects both labeled normal-to-attack transitions within four sampling steps. Code and datasets are publicly available at: https://github.com/pangjunbiao/GNSS_Spoofing.git.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

GRPO for Financial Advice Generation: Outperforming Commercial LLMs under CATE Evaluation

Generating actionable financial advice from business records demands that models integrate numerical reasoning, domain knowledge, and sound judgment, while avoiding recommendations that could harm the business. Direct supervision is difficult: historical decisions are not necessarily optimal, and high-quality free-form labels are expensive to obtain. We formulate financial advice generation as a reinforcement learning problem and fine-tune an open-weight language model using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our reward is an LLM-as-a-judge rubric that scores each recommendation across multiple binary dimensions of advice quality, augmented with a safety gate for harm prevention. Since LLM-based evaluation alone cannot confirm whether improvements reflect genuine business value rather than adaptation to the judge, we complement it with a judge-independent audit based on a standard doubly-robust Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimator. Under this observational off-policy audit, our trained LLM achieves approximately twice the estimated gross-profit lift of the strongest evaluated commercial baseline ($0.0228$ vs.\ $0.0104$), together with the lowest downside rate and the least negative tail risk of any policy evaluated. Notably, the two evaluations do not rank the baselines identically: the untrained base model places last on the judge rubric but second on the causal audit, indicating that the audit captures a signal the judge does not. Our results demonstrate that GRPO with a finance-grounded reward signal can produce substantially more useful business recommendations than commercial LLMs, and that a judge-independent causal audit is a valuable complement to, rather than a confirmation of, LLM-as-a-judge assessment in financial NLP.
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All authors Ofir Ben Shoham, Shrutendra Harsola, Vignesh Subrahmaniam, Shravan Mohan, Yakov Gazman, Oded Vainas

Machine Learning

TradingMoE: Routing the Right Experts in Evolving Markets

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for financial analysis and trading, but direct trading remains challenging because the predictive capabilities required can vary across assets, decision fields, and market conditions. Existing LLM-based trading systems either coordinate human-defined external experts or adopt conventional internal Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) routers that do not directly evaluate how individual experts contribute to trading decisions. Moreover, these routers receive no direct signal indicating when an inactive expert has become more suitable as market conditions change. We find that native router scores poorly reflect how much individual experts improve trading decisions, frequently leaving better alternatives unselected. We further reveal that token-specific expert usefulness exhibits a compact low-dimensional structure. Based on these findings, we propose TradingMoE, a trading-oriented sparse MoE that augments a frozen dense LLM with lightweight residual experts. We introduce a Query-Key router that represents the expertise required by each token under the current market context as a low-dimensional query and matches it with learnable expert keys. We further propose a sparse expert selection update mechanism that samples a few inactive experts during training and estimates whether they should replace the weakest expert in the current Top-k route. This mechanism enables the router to update expert selection as market conditions change while preserving sparse computation. Experiments against 22 baselines on stock and cryptocurrency markets show that TradingMoE improves cumulative return over the best-performing baselines by 30.89% and 30.7%, respectively. Rolling paper-trading experiments further demonstrate that its advantage persists under forward-only deployment.
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All authors Chang Zhou, Xingtong Yu, Minbin Huang, Zhennan Wu, Yuan Fang, Hong Cheng, Xinming Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Achieving Near-Zero-Overhead Multi-Model Hierarchical Classification in Real-Time Detection Pipelines

Edge-deployed vision systems in target recognition, surveillance, autonomous vehicles, and drone domains require hierarchical inference pipelines where a detection model identifies objects of interest and downstream classifiers provide fine-grained attribute analysis. Running all models on the GPU creates a serial bottleneck that limits real-time throughput as pipeline stages grow. Modern edge SoCs pair GPUs with dedicated neural accelerators (NPUs, DLAs) capable of concurrent execution, yet deploying custom models on these accelerators remains impractical due to strict operator constraints, quantization incompatibilities, and an undocumented end-to-end pipeline. We target NVIDIA Jetson DLA cores as the representative platform. We present a five-step methodology for zero GPU fallback DLA INT8 deployment of classification backbones, comprising architecture adaptation, manual dynamic range workaround to rescue TensorRT's implicit quantization (recovering 94.0% accuracy from implicit quantization's 75%) for rapid pipeline validation before explicit quantization, quantization-aware training, ONNX graph surgery for DLA compilation, and a concurrent GPU-detection/DLA-classification inference pipeline. We document nine engineering constraints with root-cause analysis and generalizable solutions. Validation on a dual-head person attribute classifier running on DLA alongside a GPU object detector on a Jetson Orin NX demonstrates near-zero pipeline overhead (12.5 vs. 13.3~FPS detector-only at 1080p), with dual-DLA scaling at no additional cost. The methodology is backbone-agnostic and generalizes to any detection-classification edge pipeline.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV

A comparison of CNN architectures for Alzheimer's disease detection in single-view MRI scans

Alzheimer's disease is a leading cause of death with no cure. Therefore, early detection is critical to slow progression and preserve quality of life. Diagnosis relies on medical history, cognitive tests, physical exams, and MRI brain scans, making deep learning suitable for Alzheimer's classification. This work proposes a benchmark that evaluates ten different convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures (including ResNet, DenseNet, MobileNet, EfficientNet, and VGG family models) under the same held-out test split protocol. A two-stage transfer learning and full fine-tuning pipeline is introduced to perform training using a class-balanced subset (3,900 images) derived from the OASIS medical imaging dataset, comprising 86,437 single-view MRI brain scans labeled into four classifications of Alzheimer's disease: Non-Demented, Very Mild Dementia, Mild Dementia, and Moderate Dementia. The best results were achieved by VGG16, with a 0.9637 validation accuracy and a 0.9533 test accuracy score. A key finding documented in this work is the difficulty of classifying the transition from Non-Demented to Very Mild Demented stages, observed consistently across all ten architectures.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Tight Nonasymptotic Local Convergence of Sinkhorn-Knopp

We revisit the Sinkhorn-Knopp (SK) algorithm for the matrix scaling problem. Despite extensive literature on the global convergence of SK and its variants, its local linear convergence behavior remains less understood. We address this gap by providing the first nonasymptotic local analysis of SK that matches the rate obtained from existing asymptotic Jacobian-based arguments. We show that under certain connectivity conditions, SK is a polynomial-time algorithm for doubly stochastic matrix scaling. With the developed tools, we showcase the local suboptimality of SK and provide accelerated variants. Finally, for dense matrices, we improve the complexity of existing first-order matrix scaling algorithms from $O(\tfrac{n^{7/3}}{\varepsilon^{2/3}})$ to $O(\tfrac{n^{9/4}}{\sqrt{\varepsilon}})$.
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All authors Wenzhi Gao, Zhaonan Qu, Yinyu Ye, Madeleine Udell

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Automated binary classification of hazelnut X-ray images: A deep-learning benchmark for quality assessment

Non-destructive X-ray imaging can reveal internal hazelnut defects that are difficult to detect by external inspection alone; however, automated interpretation remains challenging because of subtle radiographic differences among classes, marked class imbalance, and limited annotated data. Here, we present a benchmark for binary hazelnut quality classification (healthy versus defective) based on 799 segmented single-kernel X-ray images (224 x 224 pixels, grayscale), grouped into 101 acquisition units. Seven single-model configurations and ten probability-aggregation ensembles were evaluated using a group-wise split-rotation protocol across five data splits generated using different random seeds. Decision thresholds were selected on the validation set, and performance was assessed deterministically on validation and test sets. Under the expert-reassessed annotation condition, the average-probability ensemble of the binary cross-entropy-trained convolutional neural network and frozen Swin Transformer achieved the highest mean balanced accuracy (86.3% +/- 1.8%, five seeds), with several other ensembles providing comparable performance. Across methods, substantial split-to-split variability was observed, indicating that multi-split evaluation is essential for reliable model comparison at this dataset scale. Expert reassessment of ambiguous samples improved the performance of all 17 evaluated methods by 2.8-8.1 percentage points, while having only a limited effect on cross-split variance. The results highlight both the potential of deep learning for automated X-ray-based hazelnut quality assessment and the importance of rigorous evaluation and label curation in small, imbalanced agricultural imaging datasets.
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All authors Giancarlo Sportelli, Nicola Belcari, Roberta Pace, Umberto Bernardo, Sharmin Sultana, Alessandra Toncelli, Matteo Giaccone

Machine Learning

MOON: Multi-Objective OrthoNormalized Updates for Multitask Learning

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) has demonstrated significant success in multi-task learning by mitigating task conflicts through gradient manipulation. However, most existing methods flatten model parameters into vectors and perform gradient manipulation under Euclidean geometry, thereby overlooking the matrix structure prevalent in modern architectures such as Transformers. In this paper, we show that gradient manipulation in Euclidean space does not generally yield the steepest descent direction under matrix geometry, potentially limiting optimization efficiency. Drawing from the theory of steepest descent for matrix-valued parameters, we propose MOON (Multi-Objective OrthoNormalized Updates), which performs gradient manipulation under spectral–nuclear norm geometry and uses the orthonormalized manipulated gradient for parameter updates. Theoretically, for smooth non-convex objectives, we establish convergence of the averaged Pareto-stationarity measure at rates of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ in the deterministic setting and $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/4})$ under stochastic gradients. Empirical results across various benchmarks show that MOON consistently improves both optimization efficiency and final multi-task performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/KunlinLyu/MOON.
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All authors Shiji Zhou, Kunlin Lyu, Lei Zhang, Ruodong Wang, Yifan Sun

Machine Learning

Epiplexity Guided Data Selection and Generation for Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Modern systems are increasingly expected to transfer across tasks not specified during training. What data facilitates generalization in these new, unanticipated settings? One hypothesis is that data with more structural information could contain shared circuits and subprograms that could be recycled in a wider array of downstream settings. Epiplexity, a recently proposed measure of the structural information a compute-bounded learner can extract from data, provides a mechanism to reason about this relationship. In this paper, we show how to operationalize epiplexity as an online training signal for data selection and synthetic data generation. For selection, we fit scaling laws to the training loss curves of natural data domains to predict the expected epiplexity gain as a function of training tokens, and use this signal to adaptively determine the sampling weights over domains during training. For synthetic data generation, we define a generator's reward as the change in learner epiplexity over a buffer of previously generated data and use REINFORCE policy gradients to guide the generator toward an epiplexity-maximizing distribution. In both cases, higher epiplexity predicts improved downstream performance on zero-shot and fine-tuning based tasks, supporting the hypothesis that data rich in structural information yield representations that transfer across domains.
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All authors Ellen Su, Andres Potapczynski, Shikai Qiu, Edward Hughes, Andrew Gordon Wilson