Papers

Recurrent delta-rule models keep a fixed-size state matrix S (d_v x d_k) that compresses all past context. The state of the art (GDN-2) gates this update with element-wise matrix erase/write masks. This is powerful but has two defects. First, both gates are computed from the incoming token alone, making the model memory-blind: it decides what to erase without seeing what it has stored. Second, value-axis coupling in the erase gate blocks the WY-form triangular chunk solver that drives efficient training – the intra-chunk system splits into d_v independent solves, collapsing throughput to serial-recurrence cost. We introduce CARVE (Content-Aware Recurrent with Value Efficiency), which fixes both and, via a single-launch "megakernel" scheduling of the same WY-form math, trains faster than the matrix-gated baseline it replaces. The key idea is architectural: restricting all gating to the key axis makes the intra-chunk coupling independent of the value index, restoring one unmodified WY-form solve. Within this constraint, CARVE conditions both gates on a content signal read once per chunk from the chunk-boundary state and folded algebraically into each gate's low-rank projection (by associativity, U(Sq)=(US)q), giving memory-aware gating at negligible extra traffic. At init the content projections are zero, so CARVE is bit-identical to the baseline; we prove the one-chunk staleness perturbs gates by only O(1/sqrt(L)), matching a measured 0.18% deviation flat up to L=128. At 1.3B parameters / 100B FineWeb-Edu tokens on H100 (three seeds), CARVE improves every axis: WikiText perplexity 15.72 vs 15.90 (hybrid 15.41 vs 15.62), +0.63 pp average common-sense accuracy, and state-of-the-art RULER and real-world recall – while training +1.4% faster at matched depth and +19.3% at iso-quality depth, at +13% peak memory. Backed by six formal guarantees.

Muon-type optimizers construct update directions for dense neural-network weights by applying a finite Newton-Schulz map to momentum-gradient matrices. For an $H \times W$ matrix, with $r=\min\{H,W\}$ and $s=\max\{H,W\}$, $K$ steps of the full-matrix Newton-Schulz update require $O(r^2 s K)$ work and couple all rows and columns through repeated Gram matrix products. We introduce Hierarchical Muon (HiMuon), a tiled Newton-Schulz scheme for Muon-type optimization. HiMuon partitions each momentum-gradient matrix into $T \times T$ tiles, applies the same finite Newton-Schulz map independently to each tile, and reassembles the results. For finite $T$ below the matrix dimensions, HiMuon defines a local matrix-function map rather than a convergent approximation to the full-matrix update: spectral interactions are preserved within tiles and discarded across tile boundaries. For fixed finite $T$, the leading Newton-Schulz work decreases to $O(H W T K)$, and the computation decomposes into independent small dense matrix operations. This structure enables tile-size-dependent GPU kernels, cross-layer batching, memory-bounded chunking, and runtime tile-size schedules. Experiments on transformer training and controlled matrix-function diagnostics show that HiMuon improves optimizer-step efficiency while keeping training behavior close to full-matrix Muon in the tested regimes.

Graph neural networks have moved from a niche representation-learning technique to the default model class wherever data carry relational structure. The interesting question is no longer whether message passing helps on a given dataset, but where graph structure earns its computational cost and where it does not. This survey organises the field around a single design space, derives the spectral and spatial formulations from shared first principles, and connects expressive power to the Weisfeiler-Leman hierarchy with explicit statements of what current architectures can and cannot separate. Against that methodological backbone we examine twelve application domains, among them recommendation and social networks, knowledge graphs and language-model integration, drug discovery and molecular property learning, healthcare and neuroscience, computer vision, traffic and urban computing, power and renewable-energy systems, wireless and sixth-generation networks, fraud and cybersecurity, industrial prognostics, materials science, and climate modelling. For each domain we specify the graph-construction choices and their costs, identify which architecture families dominate and why, and separate reported gains from artefacts of weak baselines or favourable splits. A cross-domain comparison exposes recurring patterns: heterophily and scale undercut the same models almost everywhere, temporal graphs remain harder than their static counterparts, and the architectures that top public leaderboards are seldom the ones that reach deployment. We treat over-smoothing, over-squashing, robustness, distribution shift, fairness, and explainability not as a closing checklist but as the constraints that decide adoption.

Event-based Temporal Graph Neural Networks (ETGNNs) have demonstrated strong performance across a wide range of applications, including social network analysis, epidemic tracing, recommender systems, and political event forecasting. However, their increasing complexity poses significant challenges for explainability. Existing explanation methods focus only on a subset of the information flow within ETGNNs, typically tracing contributions from the event-related embeddings to the output. Consequently, they overlook the important pathways through event-induced variables, which mediate interactions between nodes and thereby play a central role in capturing long-range temporal dependencies. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel attribution method that analyzes the entire information flow through all event-associated variables. Our method is built upon the recent Normalized Relevance Measure (NRM) framework, which enables explicit quantification of information flow originating from event embeddings as well as information flow passing through event-induced variables. It also ensures comparability of latent variables across layers, and supports higher-order analysis of interactions between events. To handle the architectural complexity of ETGNNs, we extend the NRM framework with a modular decomposition procedure that facilitates the systematic construction of relevance structure for complex neural architectures. We evaluate our approach on two synthetic datasets for epidemic tracing and social dynamics, as well as a real-world dataset of political event networks. Our qualitative and quantitative experiments show that our method consistently outperforms existing explanation approaches while producing more human-interpretable explanations.

Successful forecasting involves identifying patterns between historical and future states of the world which generalize to future observations. We apply LLMs to a variety of forecasting tasks and inspect their internal states using sparse autoencoders to understand whether they appear to rely on time-specific pieces of knowledge versus generalizable patterns. Our analyses identify features associated with both time-aware reasoning and look-ahead-biased reasoning. We then apply the LLMs to an entirely different domain and intervene on these features. We find that amplifying time-awareness features substantially reduces look-ahead bias on forecasting prompts while preserving general reasoning performance. In contrast, steering the candidate look-ahead-bias features does not produce an effect. These results suggest that interpretable temporal features can be used to causally shift LLMs toward more historically grounded reasoning.

Sparse rewards are inherently challenging for reinforcement learning agents as they lack intermediate feedback to guide exploration and to correctly attribute the sparse success rewards to relevant parts of the trajectory. Naive reward shaping can induce reward hacking, yielding policies that exploit auxiliary signals instead of solving the intended task. Potential-based reward shaping (PBRS) guarantees preservation of the optimal policy set, but requires the definition of a heuristic potential function over the state space. In this work, we introduce the VLM-guided PBRS framework VLM-PBRS that learns the potential function directly from vision language model (VLM) feedback. We query a lightweight VLM to obtain preferences over image pairs and train a model of the potential function using these preferences. As this approach is based on potential-based reward shaping, it preserves the original optimal policies, and removes the need for expert-designed reward shaping terms. Because large VLMs are prohibitively expensive to invoke repeatedly during policy learning, we employ smaller, more computationally efficient VLMs. Although the resulting preference labels are less accurate, empirical evidence shows that the preference labels can still be used to accelerate learning. We validate our method empirically in the Meta-World and Franka Kitchen environments and highlight the connection between VLM preference label accuracy and sample efficiency improvements. Our contributions are threefold: (1) the first application of VLM preference-based learning to synthesize a potential function for PBRS, (2) a principled, low-cost solution that leverages small VLMs, and (3) extensive empirical demonstration of improved sample efficiency and robustness to reward hacking.

Medical device recalls are a critical regulatory mechanism for protecting patient safety. The growing volume of FDA recall records presents challenges in post-report recall triage, severity assessment, and root-cause interpretation. Existing studies mostly address recall occurrence prediction or root-cause analysis separately, while joint modeling of recall severity and root-cause categories has received limited attention. We develop an automated recall triage framework using 54,165 FDA medical device recall records from openFDA, covering the period from 2002 to October 2025. We first evaluate classical machine learning and boosting-based models for recall severity and root-cause category prediction. We then develop RecallRisk-BERT, a multi-task model that combines PubMedBERT-based textual representations of recall narratives with embedding-based representations of structured categorical features, including product code, regulation number, and medical specialty. The model simultaneously predicts recall severity (Class I/II/III) and a consolidated root-cause category (9 classes). Performance was evaluated using accuracy, macro-averaged precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC-AUC. In single-task severity prediction, our LightGBM-based text–tabular configuration achieved the strongest performance, with an accuracy of 0.963, macro-F1 of 0.856, and ROC-AUC of 0.974. In the multi-task setting, RecallRisk-BERT substantially outperformed the single-task PubMedBERT baseline. Model-derived risk rankings were strongly consistent with observed root-cause severity patterns (rho = 0.983, p = 1.936e-6). These findings indicate that text–tabular learning can support scalable post-report recall triage, regulatory decision support, and model-based root-cause risk analysis.

This work addresses the problem of variance in stochastic gradient estimation for machine learning optimization. Deep learning relies on mini-batch methods such as stochastic gradient descent, which approximate full gradients but introduce noise, creating trade-offs between convergence stability, speed, and generalization. Existing methods, including variance reduction techniques (e.g., SVRG and SAG) and adaptive optimizers, aim to mitigate gradient noise but may introduce additional computational overhead. We propose a model-assisted sampling framework that interprets mini-batch gradients through survey sampling theory, treating the dataset as a fixed finite population and gradients as sample-based estimates. Our aim is to bridge machine learning optimization and survey sampling theory by combining their perspectives on sample-based estimation and variance reduction. By incorporating auxiliary gradient-prediction models, we construct more efficient gradient estimators, with uniform sampling arising as a special case when no auxiliary information is used. Our approach integrates easily with existing optimizers, improving efficiency without altering their dynamics. Empirical results on synthetic and six benchmark datasets show performance gains in 71-86% of the experiments, particularly for medium-sized input spaces in our benchmarks. Notably, with momentum-based optimizers such as AdamW, the proposed estimator achieves clearly better generalization in roughly half the training epochs compared to baseline estimator.

I describe my solution to the LeHome Challenge 2026, an ICRA 2026 competition on bimanual garment folding. The system placed 1st of 62 teams in the online (simulation) round and 2nd in the real-world final. It improves a vision-language-action (VLA) policy with a reinforcement-learning loop. The policy is its own value function: the same network that predicts actions also predicts success, progress, and a few task-relevant future quantities, and those predictions drive advantage estimation, live failure detection, and candidate selection. The work mostly recombines existing RL ideas with engineering and optimization contributions that can be used together as one recipe or individually: AWR + RECAP combined for flow-matching VLA; an asynchronous distributed training / rollout pipeline through HuggingFace Hub; inference-time hyperparameters optimization via Thompson sampling; a sim-to-real recipe with camera-alignment tooling, heavy augmentation and DAgger-like HIL data collection.

Matrix-orthogonalization-based optimizers, exemplified by Muon, have demonstrated strong convergence behavior across a wide range of modern deep learning workloads. The matrix-aware updates offer a compelling alternative to conventional element-wise optimization, particularly as model architectures continue to grow in scale and heterogeneity. Yet contemporary distributed training infrastructure built around the assumption of element-wise optimizers is poorly matched to matrix-level optimizers such as Muon, whose updates couple entire weight matrices and require costly Newton-Schulz iterations. Vanilla Muon implementations incur more than 2x the cost of forward and backward passes. To close this gap, we present DMuon, an open-source distributed Muon implementation that integrates into existing training pipelines as a drop-in module, with no framework-level modifications. Across both embodied foundation model and large language model (LLM) training workloads, DMuon achieves a 1.48x-3.01x speedup in end-to-end step time and a 6.85x-163.00x speedup in optimizer-step time, bringing per-step latency to near-AdamW levels and enabling efficient scaling in our model training.

We develop the fTNN, a deterministic tensor neural network subspace method for problems involving the fractional Laplacian on bounded domains, taking the fractional Poisson equation and time-dependent fractional advection-diffusion equation as typical representatives. The work employs a geometry-adapted integration split featuring a spatially dependent near-field radius, which decomposes the fractional Laplacian into three contributions: a singular near field, a regular interior far field, and an analytical exterior far field. Then the singular radial integrals are treated by Gauss-Jacobi quadrature, the regular radial integrals by Gauss quadrature, and the angular variables by deterministic angular quadrature, yielding a fully deterministic integration framework of the fractional Laplacian operator. To accurately resolve low-regularity solutions and the associated loss functional, we construct boundary-singularity-aware trial functions enriched with explicit boundary features, and propose two strategies for automatically selecting the leading exponent and evaluating the loss function from the singularity structure induced by the fractional operator, or jointly by the fractional operator and the source term. For time-dependent fractional PDEs, we design a spatiotemporally separable neural network that factorizes the time-space residual into a sum of low-dimensional temporal and spatial integrals, and we integrate this representation with an alternating neural network subspace optimization strategy for efficient training. Numerical experiments show that the proposed framework attains high accuracy on the tested benchmarks and improves substantially over existing fPINN and Monte Carlo baselines, particularly for problems with strong boundary singularities and long-time simulations.

Kolmogorov Arnold networks (KAN) have recently been introduced as a (deep) neural network architecture whose trainable parameters adapt the activation functions, instead of the coefficients of the affine transformations at the core of traditional architectures such as deep multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). This architecture builds on the Kolmogorov-Arnold theorem, which endows it with universal approximation properties. While the advent of KANs has been received with excitement, there is a current debate about the possible KAN supremacy over deep multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) for classic fields such as symbolic regression, generic-purpose machine learning, natural language processing or computer vision. Here we assess the performance of KANs –and its nuanced comparison against MLPs and graph neural networks (GNNs)– in the realm of fluid dynamics surrogate modelling. To that aim, we consider the task of predicting the surface pressure distribution over subsonic and transonic airfoils, a canonical task in aerodynamics. Our results show that KAN models show good performance in predicting the whole pressure coefficients and is able to interpolate across Mach numbers and angles of attack, however its performance is comparable –marginally inferior– to a suitably trained MLP, where best performance is achieved by a GNN at the expense or requiring lengthier training. While the optimal KAN model have typically much lower complexity than MLP and GNN –hence resulting in faster training–, we find that KANs suffer from training instabilities, and their performance is highly dependent on a proper hyperparameter optimisation.

Foundation decoders, a class of high-capacity neural decoders, are leading candidates for fault-tolerant quantum computing, with accurate and efficient decoding at large code distances. However, their construction often faces a steep scaling barrier, as larger code distances rapidly amplify the cost of syndrome generation and neural optimization. To address this bottleneck, here we devise neural transfer unification (NTU), a unified framework for efficient foundation decoders. A central feature of NTU is its ability to align decoding tasks across code distances via algebraic structures shared by scalable code families, which enables knowledge learned on smaller codes to accelerate large-scale decoder training. We instantiate NTU as NTU-Transformer, a transformer-based neural decoder tailored for planar surface codes and bivariate bicycle codes. For planar surface codes under circuit-level noise, NTU-Transformer outperforms correlation-aware matching on the $[\![361,1,19]\!]$ code and further scales to the $[\![625,1,25]\!]$ code, where it exceeds standard matching through transfer adaptation. For the bivariate bicycle code with $[\![72,12,6]\!]$, it surpasses Relay-BP in the low-physical-error regime. These results establish our proposal as a scalable route to amortized cross-distance training of foundation decoders for fault-tolerant quantum processors.

Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations. CHAUN employs shared feature embeddings and cross-head attention mechanisms to dynamically integrate treatment-specific and control-specific representations, enhancing inter-group correlation modeling. Theoretically, we prove that access to the true propensity scores ensures ITE identifiability even with unobserved confounders. For practical scenarios lacking true propensity scores, RA-IPS adversarially optimizes propensity weights within constrained uncertainty sets to mitigate bias from unobserved variables. Experiments on public datasets (CRITEO-UPLIFT, LAZADA) and a production e-commerce dataset demonstrate CHAUN's superiority over state-of-the-art uplift models, achieving relative improvements of up to 25.6% in QINI scores. RA-IPS further enhances robustness, outperforming standard IPS by 5.4% under unobserved confounding. The results validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods in real-world causal inference tasks.

This paper proposes a corrected heavy-ball Q-learning method for reinforcement learning (RL) and establishes convergence of its deterministic mean dynamics. It also identifies conditions under which the method is theoretically guaranteed to converge faster than standard Q-learning. The same construction is then extended to Q-learning with linear function approximation, where analogous convergence and acceleration statements are derived for the corresponding corrected fixed point. The sampled stochastic versions are treated through conditional-mean recursions and, in the stated linear-function-approximation setting, finite-time bounds. The analysis is based on a switched linear system (SLS) representation of Q-learning algorithms and on the joint spectral radius (JSR) of the associated switching families. This SLS viewpoint is not commonly used in standard analyses of Q-learning, and it provides a complementary framework and new insight into how heavy-ball momentum can accelerate Q-learning.

Transformer-based models have recently attracted increasing attention for Raman spectral classification. In this study, a transformer-based approach was systematically evaluated using a nested leave-one-replicate-out cross-validation framework and compared with conventional machine-learning pipelines combining PCA or ICA with LDA, SVM, and Random Forest classifiers. A bacterial Raman dataset comprising 5,417 single-cell spectra from six bacterial species and nine independent measurement replicates was used. The transformer consistently achieved the highest classification performance across independent test replicates and significantly outperformed all conventional approaches. Analysis of the learned latent feature space revealed improved class separation compared with PCA- and ICA-based representations. Furthermore, the transformer maintained superior performance when applied directly to raw Raman spectra without preprocessing, demonstrating robust behavior across measurement replicates. These findings highlight the potential of transformer-based models for robust Raman spectral classification and emphasize the importance of replicate-aware validation for realistic model evaluation.

Cold-start exemplar-free class-incremental learning requires learning a growing set of classes without replay, external pretraining, or a large initial task. Existing cold-start methods typically either train the backbone throughout the stream and compensate for semantic drift, or freeze a backbone after the first task, producing features biased toward the initial classes. These choices also create a computational tension: drift-compensation methods require repeated backbone training and increasingly expensive updates as the task horizon grows, while frozen-backbone methods are cheap but weak under cold start. We study a third option: a feature extractor that is never fit to image data at all. We propose CIRCLE, a class-incremental classifier built from fixed bidirectional two-dimensional reservoir features, adapted from BiRC2D for image classification, and streaming linear discriminant analysis heads. CIRCLE groups multiple random reservoir instantiations into feature ensembles and averages the softmax outputs of independent SLDA heads, yielding a tunable bias-variance tradeoff between richer random features and prediction-level ensembling. Because the feature extractor is fixed and the head admits streaming closed-form updates, CIRCLE performs sample-wise training without replay, task-boundary information, or backbone backpropagation. On CIFAR-100, TinyImageNet, ImageNet-Subset, and ImageNet-1k, CIRCLE is competitive at 10-20 task splits and substantially outperforms strong CS-EFCIL baselines at 50, 100, and 500 task splits, while training much faster than trained-backbone drift-compensation methods. Ablations show that the BiRC2D-style extractor, SLDA head, and balanced feature/prediction ensembling each contribute to the final performance.

Global objectives, such as KL divergence and ELBO, are widely used in Bayesian inference for measuring distributional discrepancy. This paper studies distributional “local-mass behaviours” that are not directly captured by such global objectives. We introduce and use two mathematical tools: (1) Mass Index for recording the polynomial and logarithmic decay scales of local mass, and (2) regularised extended KL (RE-KL), a set-localised divergence that can be formulated in the presence of singular components. Mass Indices help characterise how Bayesian updating changes local mass: (1) power-log likelihood factors shift it explicitly, and (2) parameter-dependent supports, or their smooth softenings, may change the local scale through the amount of mass that remains near the parameter value. Using local RE-KL, we prove absolute, relative, and directional inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses under the two KL directions. Together, these results provide a local theoretical account of local mass behaviour. Experiments provide controlled illustrations of the local behaviour, and show that the directional comparison remains visible in the variational posteriors of Bayesian neural networks up to ResNet-50 on ImageNet. Code is available at https://github.com/Forsythia0604/Local-Mass-Framework.

We study the problem of finding stationary points of non-convex functions when access to the objective is provided only through a comparison oracle that, given two points, outputs which has the larger function value. For a twice differentiable $f\colon\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R$ with Lipschitz gradient and Hessian, we develop an algorithm that visits an $\epsilon$-stationary point using $\widetilde O(n^2/\epsilon^{1.5})$ queries. Our approach uses a subroutine that estimates the normalized Hessian to accuracy $\delta$ using $\widetilde O(n^2\log(1/\delta))$ queries. We further study this problem with a quantum comparison oracle model where queries can be made in superpositions, and develop the first quantum algorithm that finds an $\epsilon$-stationary point, which takes $\widetilde O(n/\epsilon^{1.5})$ queries.

Open-source game theory studies agents whose behavior may depend on one another's decision procedures, but most existing models use discrete or symbolic programs. We introduce parametric open-source games, a continuous analogue of program equilibria in which players choose parameter vectors and semantics maps convert the full parameter profile into mixed actions in an underlying finite game. We establish equilibrium existence results, derive an exact coupling threshold at which selfish gradient ascent in symmetric $2\times2$ games switches from defection toward cooperation, and give a one-dimensional boundary test for parametric program Nash equilibria. We further extend the framework to a neural semantics class whose first-order cooperation condition is governed by the ratio of cross-player to self-player sensitivity. Across canonical games, the framework shows how access to internal parameterizations can qualitatively reshape learning dynamics and equilibrium structure, and how sufficiently strong open-source coupling can steer selfish optimization toward cooperative outcomes.

Energy trading decisions depend not only on current market prices, but also on expected future market conditions, and operational constraints. This makes the state representation given to a reinforcement learning agent an important design choice. We study this in HydroDam, a pumped-storage arbitrage environment, using a fixed Double DQN agent. The environment, action space, reward function, network, and training protocol are kept fixed; only the market features are changed. We compare absolute price/calendar features, relative features that compare current prices with recent market history, forecast features, and all combinations of these three feature families. Policies are trained and selected using 2007–2011 Belgian day-ahead prices and evaluated on two test settings: a later same-market test set from 2012–2025 and 39 other ENTSO-E market zones. Absolute features only reaches 28.8% on the test set and a median 5.7% across zones. Relative-only and forecast-only states also stay below a rolling price-score heuristic in the cross-zone median. Combining feature families is much stronger: absolute + relative reaches 49.9% on the test set and a 39.8% cross-zone median, while absolute + relative + forecast reaches 55.6% and 47.5%. These results suggest that state representation is not a minor preprocessing choice in storage-trading RL, but a central part of the policy design: robust transfer requires combining price scale, recent relative price context, and short-horizon forecast information, rather than relying on any single feature family.

Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs) integrate physical priors into neural models by learning a system's Hamiltonian, improving generalization and sample efficiency. Identifying the system Hamiltonian from noisy observations of state variables is a challenging task. For simulations to faithfully reflect the long-term behavior of Hamiltonian systems, especially energy conservation, it is essential to use symplectic integrators, which preserve the system's geometric structure. This fidelity comes at a cost: implicit symplectic integrators are more computationally intensive and make backpropagation through the ODE solver non-trivial. However, by leveraging the fact that symplectic discretizations of the adjoint system yield the same sensitivities associated by backpropagation, we obtain an efficient method of training the Neural Network parameters. In our work, we explore this alternate method of HNN training under noisy observation of trajectories with our HNN model based on an implicit symplectic integrator. Computationally, a predictor-corrector based ODE solver and fixed point iteration help to mitigate the computational cost of the implicit timestepping, resulting in more efficient generation of gradient updates. We showcase the numerical advantage, in experiments, in system identification and energy preservation on a range of non-separable, chaotic systems and the efficient computation and memory complexity of our method. We also observe that the post-processing of the learned Hamiltonian using backward error analysis yields a modified Hamiltonian that is a more accurate approximation of the true Hamiltonian without the need to use more accurate discretizations of the flow map.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding. This work proposes a training based framework that finetunes MLLMs to improve their calibration using a composite loss function combining a Brier style calibration term, an anchor regularizer that prevents confidence collapse toward extreme values, a contrastive image text alignment term, and a KL based model stabilization term. The alignment signal is derived from a $2 \times 2$ factorial perturbation design that crosses image presence with text integrity, probing the reliance of the model on visual modality input versus language priors. Finally, a top K KL divergence regularizer is used to protect the answering ability of the model during finetuning. Across three Medical VQA benchmarks and two architectures (MedGemma 4B IT and Qwen2 VL 7B Instruct), our method reduces calibration error by 60% or more, and improves discrimination by 26% or more, while preserving predictive accuracy. On average across benchmarks, the technique outperforms prompting based, sampling based, and training based approaches, and ablation experiments confirm that each component of the loss function is indeed necessary for improving the calibration. All code for the experiments is publicly available.

Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for world modeling by predicting future representations rather than reconstructing observations. Despite their empirical success, the theoretical understanding of JEPA-based world models remains limited. In this paper, we develop the first generalization theory for JEPA-based world models. We formulate JEPA pretraining as a conditional spectral graph learning problem and show that the JEPA objective is equivalent to a low-rank factorization of an action-conditioned co-occurrence matrix. Building on this characterization, we establish a connection between JEPA pretraining error and downstream planning regret, leading to a finite-sample generalization bound for JEPA-based world models. Our analysis reveals an approximation-sample error trade-off governed by latent dimensionality, providing insights into latent- versus input-level prediction. The theoretical trade-off motivates us to investigate a simple Multi-Depth JEPA extension that combines representations from different network depths. In validation experiments, latent-level prediction exhibits greater robustness under unpredictable observations and difficult planning tasks. Multi-depth representations further improve planning success over single-depth representations and a dimensionality-matched control.

Multi-agent large language model (LLM) loops, for example a Writer that drafts and a Critic that revises, are almost always terminated by a fixed iteration cap (max_iterations). This is a syntactic kill-switch: it is blind to whether the answer is still improving, so it over-spends tokens on easy inputs and truncates hard ones. We study semantic early-stopping: the loop halts when consecutive draft embeddings stop changing in meaning (cosine distance with a patience window) and the answer's measured quality stops improving. Our work makes three contributions. First, an honest theoretical footing: we prove deterministic termination and well-definedness and machine-check these claims, while treating the convergence of the distance sequence as an empirically tested conjecture rather than a (previously over-claimed) Banach contraction. Second, a judge-efficient evaluation protocol: we generate each question's full trajectory once, replay every stopping policy over the identical drafts, and cache every LLM-judge call, yielding a strictly paired efficiency-versus-quality comparison at low cost; we further separate operational tokens (charged to a policy) from evaluation tokens (a measurement instrument). Third, an empirical study on multi-hop retrieval-augmented question answering (HotpotQA). On the 60-question test split, a judge-free semantic stopper reduces operational tokens by 38% relative to max_iterations at parity quality (Delta-IS = -0.004, p = 0.81), whereas the full quality-gated variant is counter-productive because its per-round judging dominates cost. An oracle that selects the best round attains +0.115 Information Score over every practical policy (p ~ 4e-11), reframing the problem from "when to stop" (easy) to "which round is best" (open).

Quantifying the evolution of uncertainty is critical to both probabilistic forecasting and data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. In this study, we investigate the applicability of conformal prediction (CP), a recent machine learning (ML) method, to quantify uncertainty in a controlled, idealized setting. We use the one dimensional modified shallow water model, designed to mimic the convective process. CP provides a set of possible outcomes with a chosen confidence level. Here, we compare and evaluate the average empirical coverage, the average interval length, miss low, miss high and average interval score loss (AISL) for three variants of CP, namely a) Standard CP, b) Normalized CP and c) Conformalized Quantile Regression. We further compare these CP-based uncertainty estimates with traditional ensemble-based measures such as standard deviation intervals and ensemble spread. In addition, we investigate the integration of CP-derived uncertainty within the data assimilation cycle through CP perturbations. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each approach, providing insight into the effectiveness of CP to complement common ensemble-based uncertainty quantification in simplified atmospheric models.

Large language model (LLM) post-training for reasoning increasingly relies on reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), where models learn from ground-truth feedback on mathematical, logical, and scientific tasks. To enable flexible resource allocation and support heterogeneous training setups, modern RLVR systems adopt disaggregated architectures that decouple rollout generation and policy training across independent GPU pools. However, existing synchronous on-policy GRPO (Group Relative Policy Optimization) RLVR systems finish an entire rollout before starting training, leaving the trainer GPU pool idle while rollout is still ongoing. Asynchronous RL pipelines overlap the two stages, but at the cost of training on stale data. To address these challenges, we propose RolloutPipe, a post-training framework for disaggregated RLVR systems, which turns the fixed-weight rollout into a complete-group pipeline where trainable groups move to the trainer while later groups are still being generated. RolloutPipe achieves this through two techniques including complete-group pipelining (CGP) and frontier-group dispatch (FGD). CGP dispatches each trainable complete group to the trainer FIFO as soon as group materialization finishes, and FGD is an admission policy on the Rollout node that first admits requests for the frontier groups needed to form the next training batch, so that trainer-ready groups arrive earlier and more steadily. The design starts training before the rollout completes while maintaining on-policy correctness. Evaluated on Qwen3-1.7B across four reasoning and science benchmarks and twelve rollout settings, RolloutPipe shortens the rollout-to-train-end time by 30.7%-42.3%, and lowers the trainer waiting ratio by 37%-76% compared to Slime, a state-of-the-art rollout and training system.

X-ray computed tomography reconstruction is an ill-posed inverse problem, particularly in low-dose and sparse-angle settings where measurements are noisy and incomplete. While learned reconstruction methods such as the Learned Primal-Dual algorithm achieve strong performance, they typically rely on supervised training with access to ground-truth data, which is often unavailable in practice. In this work, we propose a self-supervised reconstruction method by extending the Noise2Inverse framework to the Learned Primal-Dual algorithm. The resulting approach, called Noise2Inverse Learned Primal-Dual (N2I-LPD), enables training of a learned iterative reconstruction operator without ground-truth images by exploiting the statistical independence of noise in distinct measurements with respect to angular rotation of the CT-scan. We compare the proposed method with classical reconstruction methods, as well as neural network-based approaches such as a U-Net trained within the same N2I framework. The results demonstrate that N2I-LPD achieves improved reconstruction quality, highlighting the potential of combining learned reconstruction operators with self-supervised training strategies for practical CT imaging scenarios where ground-truth data is unavailable.

Uncertainty estimates in machine learning are typically evaluated using generic metrics such as the negative log-likelihood and expected calibration error, yet good performance on such metrics does not necessarily imply high utility in downstream decisions. We introduce decision-alignment, a criterion that reveals which evaluation metrics meaningfully align with downstream utilities. Applying this framework, we show that many widely used uncertainty metrics are either misaligned with common decision problems or encode pathological prior beliefs about the downstream task. We then propose prior-weighted utility metrics, a special class of proper scoring rules that provides decision-aligned uncertainty evaluation. Across benchmark experiments and real-world case studies, our metrics consistently align with realized decision utility, while conventional metrics do not. Our results surface flaws in the current UQ evaluation protocol and offer a principled extension of existing metrics toward decision-relevant UQ evaluation.

Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight XMSE is a scalar quadratic, yielding a closed-form oracle mixing weight that is no worse than both ML and the base EB estimator at the XMSE scale. A plug-in implementation based on finite-sample XMSE approximations is proved consistent, with a second-order oracle regret rate for an interior oracle weight. We further establish a transfer of the regret bound to the fixed-weight risk curve evaluated at the selected weight, a thresholded boundary rule, and extensions to compact kernel families and to finite and growing kernel dictionaries with high-probability oracle bounds. Finite impulse response simulations with SURE-tuned, hard-selection, and trace-corrected baselines, together with the public Silverbox and Cascaded Tanks benchmarks, show that the proposed estimator retains most of the benefit of regularization when it is helpful and retreats toward ML under kernel misspecification, with an identified finite-de analyzed on the benchmarks.