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Sunday 21 June

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP

Physics-Informed Domain-Invariant Feature Learning with Autoencoder-Driven Gaussian Clustering for Robust Non-line-of-Sight Scenarios

Jamming and spoofing pose significant threats to wireless and satellite navigation by disrupting radio-frequency (RF) signals and compromising availability and integrity. Robust RF interference direction finding through angle-of-arrival (AoA) estimation is therefore essential for detecting and localizing anomalous signals. Although data-driven methods perform well under line-of-sight (LoS) conditions, their performance degrades in practical environments due to non-line-of-sight (NLoS) multipath propagation. In this work, we propose a hybrid learning framework that incorporates physics-informed constraints into deep neural networks to improve the robustness of AoA estimation. A neural network is trained to estimate the azimuth and elevation of incoming signals received by a four-element antenna array, while a physics-informed loss enforces consistency between the predicted angles and inter-antenna phase differences under a plane-wave model. We further introduce a latent-space classifier to distinguish LoS from NLoS samples. Since inter-antenna phase differences under LoS propagation exhibit domain-invariant structure across environments, the physics-based loss is applied only to LoS samples, promoting physically consistent and domain-invariant representations without over-constraining the model in NLoS scenarios. In addition, domain-incremental learning (DIL) across NLoS environments with varying scatterer distributions improves cross-domain generalization. Evaluations on real-world datasets show that the proposed method reduces AoA estimation error by up to 6{\deg} in low-exemplar settings compared with DIL baselines.
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All authors Nisha L. Raichur, Lucas Heublein, Dominik Seuß, Frank Deinzer, Felix Ott

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Urban Deceleration Behavior Modes Under Scene Context: An Early-Kinematic Classifier from Argoverse 2 Multi-Agent Trajectories

Urban deceleration is one of the most empirically studied yet least taxonomically organized behaviors in car-following research. Recent perception-equipped autonomous-vehicle datasets enable trajectory-anchored mode discovery. We extract 1,219 sustained deceleration events from 234 urban driving logs of the Argoverse 2 Sensor dataset, encode each event in a 19-dimensional kinematic feature vector, discover behavioral modes via K-means clustering with bootstrap stability analysis, and quantify modulation by eleven scene-context variables. A HistGradientBoosting classifier predicts mode membership from the first 1.0 s of each event. Four stable modes emerge with a bootstrap Adjusted Rand Index of 0.897 across 50 resamples: anticipatory soft (62.8%), reactive closing (30.6%), brake-like jerk (4.8%), and an outlier category (1.8%). Only pair age shows a medium effect (epsilon^2 = 0.085); scene geometry and vulnerable-road-user proximity show negligible effects. The early-event classifier achieves macro-F1 = 0.758 at 1.0 s, with scene context contributing +0.059 F1 over kinematics alone. Modes are regime-invariant in medium-speed driving (ARI = 0.817) but regime-dependent at low speed (ARI = 0.166). A small set of stable kinematic modes structures urban deceleration; early-window jerk dominates predictive signal; and pair age is the primary contextual modulator.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Zero-Label Driving Scenario Complexity Detection via Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture

Identifying complex and safety-critical driving scenarios in large unlabelled datasets is an important but expensive problem. Existing approaches rely on human annotators, supervised classifiers, or carefully engineered rule sets, all of which require substantial prior knowledge about what constitutes a difficult scenario. We ask whether a model can discover scenario complexity on its own, with no labels at any stage. We train a minimal Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) on structured agent state data from the nuPlan mini dataset and use the temporal prediction error as a zero-shot complexity score. Without access to any ground-truth labels during training or evaluation setup, the model assigns significantly higher scores to scenarios involving unprotected turns, crosswalk interactions, and pedestrian proximity, and significantly lower scores to lane-following and stationary-traffic scenarios. We validate this finding through four ablation experiments that isolate the source of the signal, and through a downstream anomaly detection evaluation that achieves Average Precision of 0.512 against a 0.436 chance baseline. The results show that temporal prediction error in a self-supervised latent world model is a practical proxy for driving scenario complexity.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

Neural Speaker Diarization via Multilingual Training: Evaluation on Low-Resource Nepali-Hindi Speech

Speaker diarization, the task of determining "who spoke when" in a multi-speaker recording, is a critical component in applications such as meeting transcription, accessibility tools, and multilingual information retrieval. While end-to-end neural diarization systems have achieved strong performance for English and other high-resource languages, their effectiveness degrades substantially for underrepresented languages where annotated speech data is scarce. This paper investigates speaker diarization for low-resource Nepali-Hindi speech through a multilingual training approach, comparing two modern architectures: EEND with encoder-decoder attractors (EEND-EDA) and EEND with Perceiver-based attractors (DiaPer). Both models are trained on a multilingual corpus combining English speech from LibriSpeech, diverse speaker recordings from VoxCeleb, and separately collected Nepali and Hindi audio, a setup designed to reduce language bias and encourage cross-lingual generalization. We evaluate both models across 2-speaker, 3-speaker, 4-speaker, and mixed-speaker scenarios on LibriSpeech, VoxCeleb, and Nepali-Hindi (NeHi) test sets. DiaPer achieves stronger overall performance than EEND-EDA, particularly in more challenging multi-speaker conditions, obtaining DERs of 3.28%, 2.02%, 4.05%, and 4.76% on NeHi 2-speaker, 3-speaker, 4-speaker, and mixed-speaker settings, respectively, compared to 1.50%, 9.68%, 16.17%, and 11.19% for EEND-EDA. These results demonstrate the viability of Perceiver-based end-to-end neural diarization for low-resource multilingual speech processing.
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All authors Samip Neupane, Sandesh Pokhrel, Sandesh Pyakurel, Basanta Joshi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.BM

JEDEL: Zero-Shot DNA-Encoded Library Design for Early-Stage Drug Discovery

We present JEDEL, a framework for generating synthesis-ready DNA-encoded libraries (DELs) directly from three-dimensional pharmacophore representations of active ligands. JEDEL is the first model to map pharmacophore interaction patterns to actionable, scalable synthesis instructions, enabling the design of targeted libraries comprising potentially millions of molecules. Unlike existing generative approaches that produce virtual compounds requiring downstream synthesis planning, JEDEL operates within the space of purchasable building blocks and validated reactions, ensuring that every output is experimentally realizable by construction. JEDEL learns a predictive alignment between pharmacophore geometry and molecular structure and decodes this into combinatorial synthesis routes at scale. Across 18 protein targets, it generates focused libraries that outperform random and diversity-based baselines in predicted binding affinity, pharmacophore recovery, and sample efficiency, without target-specific retraining. JEDEL enables a shift from virtual molecule generation to experimentally deployable library design.
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All authors Zygimantas Jocys, Zhanxing Zhu, Henriette M. G. Willems, Katayoun Farrahi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Sol Video Inference Engine: Agent-Native Full-Stack Acceleration Framework for Efficient Video Generation

Modern video diffusion models achieve higher generation quality through scaling, but this also increases inference cost. Although many acceleration methods have been proposed, a central challenge is that the most effective acceleration strategy is highly instance-specific: a recipe that works well for one combination of model, hardware, and inference configuration often does not transfer to another. Different models vary in architecture, numerical sensitivity, and attention concentration patterns. Inference settings differ in spatial and temporal resolution and video duration, while hardware platforms differ in memory hierarchy, supported numerical formats, and kernel throughput. These factors create a large tuning space, making manual performance engineering costly. We present Sol Video Inference Engine, an agentic, native, training-free acceleration framework for video diffusion models. It organizes five broadly applicable techniques, cache, sparse attention, token pruning, quantization, and kernel fusion, into an agentic acceleration stack for instance-specific optimization. For a concrete deployment target defined by a model, hardware platform, and serving configuration, parallel skill agents optimize the implementation of each technique, an agent integrator composes them into a global acceleration stack, and a human validator provides feedback on generation quality. We instantiate this workflow on three video models with different sizes and architectures: 64B Cosmos3-Super, 22B LTX-2.3, and 2B SANA-Video. With little human effort, the full stack achieves more than 2x end-to-end acceleration while maintaining near-lossless VBench quality, demonstrating the effectiveness of the agent framework for video diffusion acceleration.
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All authors Yitong Li, Junsong Chen, Haopeng Li, Haozhe Liu, Jincheng Yu, Ligeng Zhu, Ping Luo, Song Han, Enze Xie

Machine Learning

Low-power analogue neural networks with trainable nonlinear connections for continuous control

Physical neural networks promise low-power machine learning by computing directly with analogue device physics, but most architectures force nonlinear device responses to act as scalar weights. Inspired by Kolmogorov-Arnold networks, we place trainable nonlinear functions on the connections, making each physical connection a learnable computational element. Realising these functions as analogue band-pass filters on field-programmable analogue arrays, we find that the benefit is task-dependent and follows from the smoothness of the physical basis: the networks represent smooth, continuously valued targets, including robotic kinematics, continuous control, and photovoltaic maximum-power-point tracking, with far fewer nodes and connections than multilayer perceptrons, but offer no parameter-efficiency advantage on classification-like decision boundaries. Trained networks transfer to hardware across approximately 35,000 connections with quantified fidelity, and a dedicated CMOS implementation is projected to operate at approximately 30 microwatts. A memristive realisation reproduces the same behaviour in simulation, indicating that the advantage comes from placing trainable nonlinearity on connections, rather than from a particular device.
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All authors Ian T. Vidamour, Fernando Aguirre, Thomas J. Hayward, Matthew O. A. Ellis, Charles Swindells, Alexander McDonnell, Martin Trefzer, Finley Robins, Luca Manneschi, Susan Stepney, Tony Kenyon, Oliver J. Sutton, Jack C. Gartside, Ivan Y. Tyukin, Adnan Mehonic, Eleni Vasilaki

Machine Learning

A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

Causal reasoning, which encompasses the discovery of causal structures and the inference of causal effects, is fundamental to data-driven decision making. In practice, data for reliable causal analysis are often distributed across institutions and cannot be centralized due to privacy regulations or communication constraints. Federated learning (FL) addresses this by enabling collaborative analysis without raw data sharing, giving rise to the rapidly growing field of federated causal discovery (FCD) and inference (FCI). However, the interdisciplinary nature of this field and the absence of a comprehensive survey present barriers to entry for researchers. This paper bridges that gap by providing a systematic review through multi-dimensional taxonomies. Grounded in the three core design decisions underlying any FCD solution, namely how structures are learned, how data are partitioned, and what structural knowledge each party obtains, we organize FCD along three axes: methodological paradigm, federation topology, and structural scope. We further examine key practical dimensions, including temporal dynamics, data heterogeneity, missing data, and non-identical variable sets. For FCI, we categorize methods by target estimand (average versus individualized/conditional treatment effects) and by estimation strategy, from classical weighting methods to modern deep generative architectures. Unlike prior works that treat FCD and FCI separately, we formalize their connection as complementary stages of a unified federated causal reasoning pipeline, where FCD supplies the structural knowledge required for valid effect estimation in FCI. Finally, we highlight their shared concerns regarding privacy, communication efficiency, theoretical guarantees, and application domains, and conclude by identifying open challenges for future research.
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All authors Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang, Xiaoli Tang, Kui Yu, Han Yu, Qiang Yang

Machine Learning

Weight-Space Geometry of Offline Reasoning Training

Offline reinforcement-learning losses (RFT, RIFT, DFT, Offline GRPO, DPO) are widely used to distill reasoning from large teachers into smaller students, and are typically compared on downstream accuracy alone. We ask whether they are mechanistically distinct or converge to a similar weight update. Training six methods (SFT, RFT, DFT, RIFT, Offline GRPO, DPO) on identical math rollouts from a single base model (Qwen3-4B) with attention-only LoRA, we analyze the resulting deltas via cosine similarity, principal-angle subspace analysis, linear mode connectivity, and CKA. We observe: (i) SFT, RFT, and RIFT have nearly colinear weight deltas (cosine >= 0.97, top-1 principal angle ~7 deg median over 144 modules) and comparable GSM8K accuracy (87-88%, n=1319; pairwise McNemar p >= 0.15); (ii) DFT diverges further in direction than any reward-weighted method despite using the same data; (iii) Offline GRPO adds a substantial component orthogonal to the SFT direction (~67% globally, up to ~86% in late layers) while staying in the SFT loss basin; (iv) DPO sits in a near-orthogonal subspace, shows a mode-connectivity barrier, and collapses late-layer CKA to ~0.46. DPO also reaches the highest accuracy in our protocol on both GSM8K (93.5%, McNemar p < 10^-9 vs. each other method) and AIME26 (30.0% vs. 3.3-10.0%); its training uses a 10x smaller learning rate than the others (the standard convention), so the update-norm and accuracy gaps reflect loss-function and optimizer choices jointly, and a learning-rate-matched DPO comparison is left for future work.
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All authors Aleksandr Nikolich, Igor Kiselev, Vladimir Platonov, Karina Romanova

Machine Learning

Systematic Exploration of 4-Expert Heterogeneous Mixture-of-Experts via Automated Pipeline Search

We present an automated large-scale search pipeline for heterogeneous 4-Expert Mixture-of-Experts (MoE4) architectures within the LEMUR neural network dataset ecosystem. Building on a hand-crafted heterogeneous MoE reference model, we replace manual design with a deterministic code-assembly generator that systematically combines base architecture families drawn from the LEMUR database into MoE4 ensembles, each governed by a convolutional gating network with temperature scaling, mixup augmentation, and cosine-annealed learning rate scheduling. Over a 28-day campaign on an NVIDIA RTX 4090, the pipeline generated 4,463 candidate models across 197 batches, of which 1,021 were evaluated successfully. A critical finding emerged from the campaign: due to alphabetical enumeration via itertools.combinations, the entire explored search space (4.8% of the theoretical 23,751 possible 4-family combinations) is anchored to a single family, AirNet. We characterise this coverage bias precisely, identify the root cause in the generator, and propose a stratified random sampling fix. Within the AirNet anchored scope, ShuffleNet and MobileNetV3 consistently co-produce the highest-accuracy ensembles (mean accuracy up to 0.632), while FractalNet and MNASNet are identified as low-yield families warranting exclusion in future campaigns. The pipeline, analysis artefacts, and corrected generator are released as part of the open-source NNGPT project at https://github.com/ABrain-One/nn-gpt
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All authors Yashkumar R Lukhi, Harsh Rameshbhai Moradiya, Radu Timofte, Dmitry Ignatov

Machine Learning

Subspace-Constrained Federated Learning with Low-Rank Adaptation

Federated low-rank adaptation methods are attractive for fine-tuning large models under communication and privacy constraints, but heterogeneous client data can induce geometric misalignment between local low-rank updates. We study whether this subspace misalignment leads to destructive aggregation and slower convergence in LoRA-based federated learning. We propose a subspace-regularized federated LoRA objective that encourages local client updates to remain close to a shared global reference subspace. We present a complete empirical evaluation on two pretrained models, RoBERTa-large and SmolLM-360M, over HellaSwag in a non-IID 10-client federated setting, across 3 random seeds (42, 43, 44), yielding 24 total experimental runs (4 methods x 3 seeds x 2 models). On RoBERTa-large, Subspace-Reg achieves the strongest mean best accuracy (0.454 +/- 0.023), mean final accuracy (0.429 +/- 0.011), and lowest final loss (1.363) across all three seeds, outperforming FedAvg, SVD redistribution, and FedSVD baselines by a large margin. On SmolLM-360M, FedAvg leads on accuracy, revealing that accuracy gains are model-dependent. Crucially, Subspace-Reg achieves near-perfect basis overlap, approximately 0.9999, on both models and across all seeds, versus 0.958 to 0.991 for all baselines, providing robust support for the geometric alignment hypothesis. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/sadia-sigma-lab/Subspace-Constrained-Federated-learning-with-Lora.
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Machine Learning

SCRUB-FL: Sanitizing and Cleansing Representations via Unlearning of Backdoors

Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative model training without sharing raw data, making it a promising paradigm for privacy-sensitive applications. However, its decentralized nature makes it inherently vulnerable to backdoor attacks, where malicious clients embed hidden triggers into local training data to manipulate model predictions. Existing defenses mainly operate during before and during aggregation cannot fully eliminate backdoor behaviors that persist in the converged global model. Moreover, the effectiveness of post-training sanitization is often limited by the server's lack of knowledge of trigger patterns or poisoned clients after convergence, resulting in residual backdoor behaviors or accuracy degradation due to neuron entanglement. To address this limitation, we propose SCRUB-FL (Sanitizing and Cleansing Representations via Unlearning of Backdoors), a two-phase solution for post-training backdoor removal in FL. During training, clients identify suspicious samples using spectral analysis and activation clustering, then train lightweight Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) models to capture trigger-related distributions. The generator parameters are aggregated server-side to construct a global representation of suspicious patterns without exposing raw data. After convergence, the server synthesizes trigger-approximating samples and applies machine unlearning to erase the trigger-target association by redistributing predictions toward a uniform distribution. Experimental evaluations on CIFAR-10 and GTSRB across three attack types and up to 40% malicious participation demonstrate that SCRUB-FL reduces the backdoor attack success rate to as low as 3.88% while maintaining over 91% normal task accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art defenses without requiring prior trigger knowledge or a large clean proxy dataset at the server.
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All authors Osama Wehbi, Sarhad Arisdakessian, Omar Abdel Wahab, Azzam Mourad, Hadi Otrok

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MA

GARIP: A Running-Average Moving Reference for Last-Iterate Self-Play in Two-Player Zero-Sum Games

Self-play with naive gradient ascent cycles in two-player zero-sum games: the last iterate orbits the equilibrium. Modern methods restore last-iterate convergence by regularizing toward a reference policy – MMD a fixed one (reaching only the regularized equilibrium), R-NaD a periodic snapshot (the engine of DeepNash). We study GARIP, which anchors to the running average, and isolate what the choice of reference controls. Our central result is a mechanism: collapse tracks the peak lag of the reference, and among causal convex averages of a fixed mean lag the running average (flat profile, peak $=$ mean) uniquely minimizes that peak, while a snapshot's sawtooth has peak $= 2\times$ mean (a one-line theorem). Two consequences follow. Convergence: we prove local last-iterate convergence at constant anchor strength – the anchor scales the base map's rotation by $1-\beta$, crossing the stability boundary and turning a recurrent base into a contraction (global convergence is conjectured at small $\beta$; we characterize a large-$\beta$ consensus failure). Robustness: GARIP matches R-NaD's peak performance – on matrix games, the Coin Game, and the board games Connect Four/Othello, both moving references are far more robust than fixed-magnet and magnet-free baselines – but is the better hyperparameter default; we report it both ways: over the full grid collapse rates are statistically indistinguishable, yet at conventional parameterizations a matched-mean-lag setting collapses in 0/40 vs 10/40 seeds (a snapshot matches it only by knowing to shorten $K$). The boundaries: an anticipatory (negative-weight) reference does better still on the stale side, and the advantage appears only where naive self-play cycles (five deep self-play loops). All experiments are pure JAX and reproducible.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

The Geometry of Refusal: Linear Instability in Safety-Aligned LLMs

Modern Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on extensive safety alignment, yet the mechanistic basis of refusal remains opaque. In this work, we investigate whether safety compliance is a deep semantic decision or a manipulable linear feature. We introduce Contrastive Logit Steering (CLS), a zero-optimization framework that isolates the "refusal direction" by contrasting hidden states derived from safe and unrestricted system prompts. Unlike representation engineering methods that intervene on internal activations, CLS operates directly on the output distribution, serving as a diagnostic probe for alignment fragility. When coupled with prefix injection to bypass initial refusal reflexes, this method induces a phase transition where guardrails collapse. Our experiments on 7 model families reveal that safety implementation is architecturally deterministic. While models like Llama-3.1 exhibit a "Late Decision" topology that is easily bypassed by CLS (reaching 95% ASR in approximately one second), others like Qwen-2.5 demonstrate "Early Divergence" by integrating safety mid-computation. Direct comparison with established activation-level steering methods shows that CLS achieves substantially higher attack success rates on Llama 2 (73% vs. 22.6%) and Qwen 7B (91% vs. 79.2%), demonstrating that logit-level intervention exposes alignment vulnerabilities that hidden-state methods underestimate. Beyond attacks, we show that this linearity enables bidirectional control: inverting the steering vector "hardens" models against jailbreaks without retraining. Our findings suggest that current alignment techniques create a steerable "safety axis" that serves as both a critical vulnerability and a precise primitive for defense.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Data Evolution by Wittgenstein's Rule Following

This paper introduces Wittgenstein's Rule Following (WRF) data evolution, a framework in philomatics for evolving or generating a new dataset from a sequence of previously observed datasets. The method is inspired by Ludwig Wittgenstein's rule-following considerations and his notion of family resemblance in Philosophical Investigations. Unlike standard synthetic data generation, where the goal is usually to sample from or augment a fixed distribution, WRF aims to continue the implicit rule expressed by a historical sequence of datasets while preserving resemblance to the previous datasets. WRF represents each dataset by structural descriptors rather than pointwise correspondences. These descriptors summarize geometric, distributional, clustering, and, in the supervised case, label-based properties of the data. The method predicts a rule-following target by extrapolating descriptor trajectories and a family-resemblance target by averaging historical descriptors. Candidate datasets are then generated from the observed history through balanced or bounded mixture recombination, scored according to these targets, and optionally refined through differentiable optimization in descriptor space. The proposed framework allows both sample size and feature dimension to vary over time and does not assume that the next dataset is a direct transformation of the last one. Simulations on synthetic and image datasets show that WRF can generate meaningful continuations of evolving datasets in both unsupervised and supervised settings.
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Machine Learning

Clipping the Price of Adaptivity at the Tail

Adaptive stochastic convex optimization (SCO) methods face a fundamental “price of adaptivity” barrier: under the standard set of assumptions, they cannot efficiently adapt to large uncertainty in both the initial distance to optimality and the Lipschitz constant. We circumvent this barrier by requiring a small amount of additional structure common to many learning problems. Specifically, we assume that the objective decomposes into a model and a loss function, enabling us to intervene by modifying the model's output before it passes to the loss function. Under this assumption, we design a method that clips the learned model output in tail events where it deviates too much from the output of a fixed reference model. Our method matches the optimal bounds for known-parameter SCO up to logarithmic factors in the uncertainty in the distance and Lipschitz parameters, thus efficiently adapting to large uncertainty in both.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CE

From Complaint Narratives to Monetary Relief: A Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for CFPB Consumer Complaints

Consumer financial complaints provide a valuable source of information for identifying service failures, dispute frictions, and operational deficiencies in consumer-facing financial institutions. This paper proposes a hybrid machine learning framework for predicting monetary relief outcomes using Consumer Financial Protection Bureau complaint data. We formulate the task as an imbalanced binary classification problem, where complaints closed with monetary relief are treated as compensable outcomes. The proposed framework integrates multiple sources of predictive information, including complaint narrative text, LDA-based topic representations, interpretable text-engineered features, and structured categorical attributes such as company and state. An XGBoost classifier is trained using a temporal train-test split, with earlier complaints used for model development and more recent complaints reserved for out-of-sample evaluation. Compared with a TF-IDF baseline, the proposed framework substantially improves predictive performance, increasing AUC-ROC from 0.69 to 0.78 and improving PR-AUC under class imbalance. Feature importance analysis shows that textual signals, latent complaint topics, and company identity all contribute meaningful predictive information. In particular, company-level effects reveal systematic variation in complaint resolution patterns across financial institutions. These findings suggest that consumer complaint narratives can serve as alternative data for monitoring consumer harm, identifying firm-level operational weaknesses, and supporting early-stage risk surveillance in consumer finance.
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Machine Learning

LSTM Variants for Chaotic Dynamical Systems: An Empirical Study on the Lorenz Attractor

Forecasting chaotic dynamical systems such as the Lorenz attractor is notoriously difficult: small numerical errors are amplified exponentially over long autoregressive rollouts. We study seven recurrent and convolutional architectures for the AI-DEEDS 2026 Chaotic Systems Challenge: a vanilla LSTM, an LSTM with additive attention, a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), a BiLSTM trained with the Huber loss, a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), a CNN front-end followed by an LSTM, and a CNN front-end followed by a BiLSTM. All models share the same pre-processing, sequence length, and rollout procedure, isolating the contribution of each design choice. The challenge scores predictions on a 0-100 scale where higher is better. We obtain leaderboard scores between 45.72 and 58.81, with the BiLSTM trained with Huber loss being the strongest configuration. Two findings stand out: (i) adding additive attention to the unidirectional baseline degraded performance by over ten points, and (ii) prepending a CNN front-end to either an LSTM or a BiLSTM did not help and slightly hurt the score. Per-pair RMSE measurements confirm that the BiLSTM family generalizes better in the harder pairs (6-7), while the LSTM + Attention model collapses there (RMSE up to 8.94 on pair 6). We discuss why bidirectional context and a robust loss help in chaotic regimes while attention and CNN front-ends fail in this setting.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Confidently Wrong: Severity-Aware Calibration of Prompt-Injection Detectors under Attack Shift

Prompt-injection detectors are deployed as guards: a model scores an input and a downstream system trusts or blocks it on that score. I study the confidence of these scores, not only their accuracy, when the attack distribution shifts away from the clean benchmark on which the operating point was chosen. I evaluate three released detectors, ProtectAI-v2 and two Prompt-Guard-2 checkpoints, at a single source-calibrated threshold that I freeze and transport across five shifts. I report a severity metric S, how confident a detector is on the attacks it misses, alongside the false-negative rate and discrimination. Across every shift and every detector, severity on the missed attacks stays between 0.99 and 1.00 while the false-negative rate ranges from 0.01 to 0.97: when these detectors miss, they miss with near-certainty. All three confidently pass indirect behavior-hijack injection, a blind spot unanimous across two vendors and a fourfold size range. Standard pooled calibration error does not register this; one detector it rates well-calibrated, at 0.06, is miscalibrated at 0.91 on the attacks alone. Run against live models, the missed injections leak the majority of working exploits, passing them at the rate they catch others. A controlled experiment traces the cause to content-keying rather than injection structure, an instruction-tuned model used as a judge shows the same hijack blind spot, and a black-box rewriter exploits the content-keying to manufacture working confident misses, most effectively on the most dangerous attack category. Code and data are public.
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Machine Learning

Foundation Models for Epileptogenic Zone Identification in Drug-Resistant Epilepsy

Accurate identification of the epileptogenic zone (EZ) is essential for seizure freedom after resective surgery in drug-resistant epilepsy, yet seizure freedom rates remain below 50%. We developed EpiiSLM, a dual foundation model system for EZ identification with stereo-electroencephalography (sEEG), by training a signal foundation model on 104,990 minutes of sEEG recordings from the Montreal Neurological Institute & Hospital, while leveraging all recordings regardless of surgical outcome and anchoring EZ biomarker extraction on non-epileptic signals. A language foundation model then integrates sEEG-derived outputs with multimodal clinical information to produce interpretable predictions. Under leave-one-patient-out evaluation, EpiiSLM achieved 0.978 contact-level positive predictive value (PPV), outperforming the seizure onset zone(SOZ)-as-EZ baseline by 15.1% (p < 0.05), and 100% region-level accuracy; on an external dataset, EpiiSLM achieved 0.857 contact-level PPV. EpiiSLM requires only one night of interictal sleep data, suggesting potential to reduce invasive sEEG monitoring duration and improve surgical outcomes.
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All authors Thi Kieu Khanh Ho, Thomas Lai, Petr Klimes, Jan Cimbalnik, Martin Pail, Milan Brazdil, Birgit Frauscher, Narges Armanfard

Machine Learning

A Markov Chain Approach to Preference Alignment

We propose Markov Chain from Human Feedback (MCHF), an elementary approach for aligning generative models from pairwise human preferences. Unlike Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), which reduces comparisons to a scalar reward, and Nash Learning from Human Feedback (NLHF), which preserves pairwise utilities through a KL-regularized minimax optimization, MCHF uses pairwise preferences directly to define a transition mechanism over model outputs. Given a pairwise utility $U(x,y)$, which quantifies human preference for $y$ over $x$, and a reference probability distribution $\mu_{\mathsf{ref}}$, we define a Markov kernel $\mathsf{P}(x, dy)\propto \exp(U(x,y))\mu_{\mathsf{ref}}(dy)$, and take the Markov chain starting from $\mu_{\mathsf{ref}}$ as an iterative alignment procedure. We show that MCHF converges geometrically fast to the stationary distribution, with a convergence rate governed by the seminorm $\|U\|_\oplus=\inf_{g,f\in L^\infty(\mu_{\mathsf{ref}})}\|U-g\oplus f\|_\infty$, which quantifies the non-transitive structure of the pairwise utility. We further show that a mirror-descent algorithm for NLHF satisfies an analogous structure-adaptive convergence guarantee. Finally, through a perturbation analysis, we prove that when $\|U\|_\oplus$ is small, MCHF and NLHF agree up to first order around an RLHF solution, which yields a unified view of reward-based, game-theoretic, and Markovian approaches to alignment. In particular, for two natural algorithms that converge to the MCHF/NLHF equilibria, we show that the first step of MCHF and NLHF recovers the RLHF solution based on the column-sum reward $\hat{f}(y)=\int \mu_{\mathsf{ref}}(dx) U(x, y)$, and starting from the second iteration, both algorithms incorporate the same linear functional of the residual $U-(-\hat f)\oplus \hat f$, which captures the non-transitive structure of the pairwise utility $U$.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

MaRS: Robust Out-of-Distribution Detection via Mahalanobis Residual Scoring

Foundation models provide highly descriptive representations for medical images, yet their reliability degrades under distribution shifts arising from changes in patients, devices, or acquisition conditions. Reliable out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is therefore essential for safe deployment. Recent post-hoc detectors efficiently exploit frozen embeddings (e.g., kNN), whereas reconstruction-based OOD detection in latent feature space has seen limited adoption due to inconsistent performance. In this work, we show that the limitation of reconstruction-based methods in latent space does not stem from poor reconstruction quality, but from how reconstruction errors are scored. Standard L2 residual norms collapse the anisotropic residual structure, thereby suppressing informative deviations. To address this limitation, we introduce MaRS (Mahalanobis Residual Scoring), a label-free OOD detector that learns an in-distribution manifold using a lightweight autoencoder and measures deviation via a Mahalanobis distance on reconstruction residuals, yielding variance-aware OOD scores. Across three imaging modalities, multiple types of distribution shift, and different model families and scales, MaRS outperforms established confidence-, distance-, and reconstruction-based baselines, while remaining fully post-hoc and lightweight. The code is available at https://github.com/francescodisalvo05/mars.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

RAVEN: Agentic RAG for Automated Vulnerability Repair

Automated vulnerability repair has emerged as a promising direction to mitigate the growing number of software vulnerabilities. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have further accelerated research in automated repair. However, existing frameworks remain largely restricted to memory-related vulnerabilities and locally repairable vulnerability settings, leaving generalization to unseen vulnerability types underexplored. Their evaluations are often limited to a single programming language, and largely rely on proprietary models. In this paper, we propose RAVEN, a scalable, efficient and autonomous framework that integrates an agentic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipeline with controlled iterative repair in a unified framework. The framework utilizes open-source LLMs in a fully locally deployable setting with limited GPU requirements, while building a multi-faceted retrieval pipeline to retrieve historically relevant vulnerability fixes and guide the patch generation. In addition, RAVEN introduces a dedicated Curator Agent that retrieves cross-file dependencies from the target repository, to fix complex vulnerabilities that cannot be addressed using local vulnerable code alone. We evaluate RAVEN on 160 real-world CVE vulnerabilities across diverse vulnerability types, two programming languages, unseen CWE categories, and out-of-distribution settings. RAVEN achieves an overall repair success rate of 83.13%, outperforming all existing state-of-the-art repair frameworks, while also demonstrating strong generalization capabilities and maintaining the repair cost negligible.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Statistical Inference for Misspecified Contextual Bandits

Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity. We study inference with contextual-bandit data without assuming a well-specified outcome model. In this setting, we show a previously overlooked issue: standard algorithms such as LinUCB may fail to stabilize under misspecified working models, leading to non-Gaussian estimator behavior and invalid inference. This issue is practically important, as misspecified working models – such as approximations of complex dynamical systems – are often employed by online agents in real-world adaptive experiments to balance reward, computational tractability, and robustness. We develop an inverse-probability-weighted Z-estimation framework for a broad class of marginal moment targets, including projection parameters, structural parameters with noisy contexts, and off-policy values. We identify a stability condition tailored to this framework, scaled inverse-propensity convergence, under which the IPW-Z estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal with a consistent sandwich variance estimator. We further establish sufficient conditions for scaled inverse-propensity convergence for several policy classes, including multi-armed bandit algorithms and smooth contextual allocation policies. Simulations and a HeartSteps V1 real-data-calibrated application show reliable coverage and competitive performance across multiple targets. Overall, our results highlight the importance of stability-aware adaptive design for valid post-experiment inference.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Learning Entropy Signature for Image Representation and Classification

Learning Entropy (LE) has recently been extended to image analysis through Spatial Learning Entropy Maps (SLEMs), which are two-dimensional LE distributions that highlight unusually high learning activity across an image. Unlike conventional image descriptors, SLEMs are generated by incremental, sample-wise learning of a pretrained feedforward MLP network, where local pixel neighborhoods are presented sequentially in a fixed spatial order to predict the corresponding central pixels. Consequently, the learning activity at each image location depends not only on its local structure but also on the knowledge acquired from previously processed locations. This paper introduces Learning Entropy Signatures (LES), an image descriptor derived from SLEM using the K largest LE locations. LES captures the spatial organization of learning-relevant image structures and provides a compact representation of image content based on learning weight behavior. Experimental evaluation on image classification tasks shows that a relatively small number of K largest LE locations preserve substantial discriminative information. The results indicate a close relationship between the learning of neural weights and information relevance, extending the role of Learning Entropy from time series to images and, within images, from structural point extraction to compact image representation and classification.
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All authors Jan Glaser, Ivo Bukovsky, Noriyasu Homma, Marcel Jirina

Machine Learning

Scalable Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning for Diffusion Policies via Adjoint Matching

Diffusion policies have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for representing complex action distributions in reinforcement learning (RL). However, their application to online RL remains limited by the challenge of scalable training in the absence of ground-truth data, where standard optimization techniques such as score matching are not directly applicable. In this work, we introduce a highly efficient algorithm for optimizing diffusion policies by leveraging recent advances in stochastic optimal control. Our approach is based on adjoint matching, which enables simulation-free training and circumvents the need for explicit likelihood estimation or costly backpropagation through the diffusion process. Furthermore, we propose several extensions that improve the robustness and stability of the method in practical settings. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive performance while significantly reducing computational overhead, making diffusion policies more viable for online RL scenarios.
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All authors Serge Thilges, Onur Celik, Denis Blessing, Emiliyan Gospodinov, Gerhard Neumann

Machine Learning

Federated Learning for Global Carbon Emission Forecasting: A Hybrid Time-Series Approach with Statistical and Neural Models

Climate change, primarily driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, requires accurate forecasting tools to support effective mitigation policies and sustainable development strategies. Existing forecasting approaches typically rely on centralized data collection, which is often restricted by privacy regulations and the distributed nature of emission data across countries and industrial sectors. This paper proposes a novel federated hybrid forecasting framework that integrates ARIMA-based trend modeling, GARCH-based volatility modeling, LSTM-Attention temporal representation learning, and XGBoost prediction within a privacy-preserving federated learning environment. The proposed framework enables collaborative learning among distributed clients without requiring the exchange of raw data. Experimental evaluation across 14 clients demonstrates strong forecasting performance, achieving client R2 values between 0.50 and 0.97 with an average of 0.73, RMSE values ranging from 0.06 to 2.35 with an average of 1.21, and MAPE values between 1.5% and 11.3% with an average of 6.5%. The results indicate that the proposed framework provides an accurate, scalable, and regulation-compliant solution for collaborative carbon-emission forecasting.
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All authors Attia Qammar, Qazi Haseeb Yousaf, Ali Azam, Ammar Ahmed, Abdenacer Naouri, Tianrui Li

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Sub-Billion, Super-Frontier: Small Language Models Rival Zero-Shot Frontier LLMs on General and Literary Relation Extraction

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong relation extraction (RE), but their computational demands and reliance on proprietary APIs limit deployment in resource-constrained or privacy-sensitive settings. We investigate how far small language models (SLMs) can close this gap across general-domain and literary text. We evaluate five models from 360M to 3B parameters under three domain-composition regimes and two prompt-conditioned tuning styles (30 configurations), comparing them with zero-shot frontier LLMs and a discriminative RoBERTa baseline. Across nine benchmarks, the best sub-billion model, Qwen2.5-0.5B fine-tuned on pooled general-domain data, achieves a general-domain positive-class micro-F1 of 0.83, versus 0.69 for GPT-5.4 and 0.66 for Claude Sonnet 4.6 evaluated zero-shot. This does not imply that SLMs are intrinsically stronger; rather, targeted task adaptation enables 4-bit models deployable on a single consumer GPU to outperform general-purpose frontier systems under this protocol. An in-domain RoBERTa baseline also exceeds both frontier models, indicating that the gain stems from task adaptation rather than generative decoding. On literary RE, tuned SLMs reach 0.92 on the human-annotated Biographical benchmark versus 0.83 for GPT-5.4, and 0.833 versus 0.578 on the two-benchmark literary average. A targeted domain-adaptive pretraining case study yields no practically meaningful gain over supervised fine-tuning, while the cleanest within-family scale comparison shows only marginal improvement. These results show that, when task-specific data are available, compact task-adapted models can provide accurate, private, and hardware-efficient RE.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for Bayesian time-series modeling, yet their cubic computational cost remains a severe barrier for application to long, high-cadence datasets in astronomy. While specialized scalable solvers like Celerite elegantly reduce this scaling to linear time, repeatedly evaluating the exact likelihood during iterative Bayesian sampling is a bottleneck for developing more complex models, like hierarchical or additive models in which Celerite is only one component. To make this inference computationally tractable, we introduce a generative surrogate framework. By utilizing a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to learn a compressed representation of the Celerite prior, we map highly correlated stochastic dependencies into a low-dimensional, isotropic manifold. This transition completely bypasses exact covariance operations, shifting the computational burden to a rapid neural network forward pass. Through an extensive simulation study, we show that the generative surrogate accurately reproduces the structural fidelity of exact physical kernels like Celerite. Finally, we demonstrate embedding our VAE approximation into an additive model that combines Celerite and a hidden Markov model (HMM) for stellar flare detection in time series data of stars. We evaluate the joint VAE+HMM architecture against the exact Celerite+HMM framework on empirical astrophysical time series and demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves significant reductions in computational time, enabling the rigorous, large-scale characterization of stellar flares across massive data archives.
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All authors Rodrigo Herrera, Vianey Leos-Barajas, Gwendolyn Eadie, Elizaveta Semenova, James Davenport

Machine Learning

On the Position Bias of On-Policy Distillation

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) improves the learning efficiency of standard reinforcement learning through dense, token-level supervision from teachers. In the standard KL objective of OPD, token-level losses are uniformly averaged, implying equal weights for all tokens. However, we discover that not all tokens are created equal: as student rollouts grow longer, they deviate further from the teacher's distribution, leading to degraded supervision quality at later positions. As a result, OPD using only the first 30% of tokens can perform comparably to using all tokens, whereas OPD using only the last 30% of tokens barely learns anything. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of this issue through the lens of constrained optimization. Based on these insights, we derive Importance-Weighted On-Policy Distillation (IW-OPD), in which the weight assigned to each token depends on the accumulated discrepancy between the student's and teacher's distributions, naturally upweighting earlier tokens and downweighting later ones with larger deviations. We show that IW-OPD converges significantly faster than OPD, with better learning efficiency, and achieves better final performance than standard OPD in both same-size and cross-scale settings, improving performance up to 6.9 points on AIME-2025.
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All authors Yan Xie, Sijie Zhu, Tiansheng Wen, Bo Chen, Yifei Wang