Papers

Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) requires assigning credit across long sequences of computations. Standard backpropagation through time (BPTT) addresses this problem poorly: it is sequential in time, limiting parallelism, and suffers from vanishing or exploding gradients, making long-range associations difficult to learn. We propose Supervised Memory Training (SMT), a method for training nonlinear RNNs that sidesteps recurrent credit propagation entirely by reducing RNN training to supervised learning on one-step memory transition labels $(m_t, x_{t+1}) \rightarrow m_{t+1}$. SMT acquires these memory labels by training a Transformer-based encoder on a predictive state objective–retaining only information from the past necessary to predict the future. By decoupling what to remember from how to update memory, SMT enables time-parallel RNN training with a stable $O(1)$ length gradient path between any two tokens–without ever unrolling the RNN. We find that SMT outperforms BPTT when pretraining various RNN architectures on tasks like language modeling and pixel sequence modeling. SMT enables nonlinear RNNs to better capture long-range dependencies and train in parallel, potentially unlocking the scaling of models that build temporal abstractions of past experience.

Recent advancements in reasoning language models have been driven by Reinforcement Learning (RL) fine-tuning. Most often, these rely on the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm or modifications thereof to steer the models to produce Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces. The final answer can only be verified, and the reward assigned, after the CoT trace is complete, making it a delayed reward problem. GRPO and its modifications correspond to Monte Carlo methods in standard RL, which are known to suffer from high variance. A possible solution to this problem is the redistribution of rewards through credit assignment, where segments of the CoT trace that are important for arriving at the desirable solution are emphasized by assigning a higher reward. While Monte Carlo sampling can be used to provide an unbiased estimate of intermediate state values, its computational overhead makes it unsuitable for train-time credit assignment in long contexts at high granularity. We introduce RREDCoT (Reward REDistribution for Chain of Thoughts), which utilizes the model itself to approximate the optimal reward redistribution without additional generation. We investigate the advantages of our method compared to MC sampling and several attribution methods. We further analyze several aspects relevant to the construction of the redistribution such as segmentation of CoT traces and state value estimation.

Diffusion language models generate text by iteratively denoising an entire response in parallel, holding a noisy draft of the answer at every step. We show that these intermediate states surface salient entities early in the denoising trajectory, making them a useful lookahead signal for retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). We further demonstrate that grounding generation in retrieved evidence sharply reduces inter-token dependence, making RAG particularly well suited to parallel decoding. We exploit both through Self-Augmenting Retrieval for Diffusion Language Models (SARDI), a dynamic RAG framework that uses speculative token predictions to guide retrieval during denoising. SARDI is training-free, retriever-agnostic, and applicable to any reasoning-capable discrete diffusion language model. Across five multi-hop QA benchmarks, SARDI outperforms training-free diffusion and autoregressive retrieval baselines at up to 4x higher throughput.

We propose a preconditioning (PC) layer, a weight parameterization via polynomial preconditioner that ensures stable weight conditioning throughout LLM training. The PC module reshapes the singular-value spectrum of weight matrices via low-degree polynomial preconditioning. After training, the preconditioned weights can be merged back into the original architecture, incurring no inference overhead. We demonstrate the advantage of the proposed PC layer over standard transformers in Llama-1B pre-training, for both the AdamW and Muon optimizers. Theoretically, we justify this spectrum-control principle by proving that uniformly bounding each layer's singular values ensures geometric convergence of gradient descent to global minima, for certain deep linear networks. Our code is available at https://github.com/Empath-aln/PC-layer.

Let $S$ be the set of unit norm linear classifiers $\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d$ which correctly classify every point of a labeled dataset $(X_i,y_i)_{i=1}^n$, $X_i \in \mathbb{R}^d$, $y_i \in \{-1,+1\}$, with a possibly negative margin $\kappa$ fixed in advance. Under two natural data-generating distributions of the $(X,y)$ pairs – a Gaussian mixture model and a logistic model with Gaussian features – and in the proportional regime $n/d \to \alpha$ with small enough $\alpha$, we establish a large deviation principle on the event that a point $\theta$ chosen uniformly at random from $S$ achieves a given generalization error, with high probability over the choice of the data. The associated large deviation rate function is deterministic and describes the proportion, at the exponential scale in $d$, of interpolating classifiers having a given desired performance. As a consequence, we establish the following concentration phenomenon: all but an exponentially small fraction of interpolating classifiers have approximately the same generalization performance given by the unique maximizer of this rate function. We numerically compare this maximizer to the performance of empirical risk minimization by gradient descent and to the performance of a natural linear program, both finding a point in $S$, and deduce that in the overparametrized regime of small $\alpha$, these efficient procedures outperform the vast majority of interpolators, pointing to their nontrivial benign overfitting in this setting.

Long-context inference in modern LLMs is increasingly constrained by decoding efficiency, especially in reasoning-heavy settings where models generate long intermediate chains of thought. Existing sparse attention methods often face a practical efficiency-quality trade-off. Structured block sparse methods typically provide stronger acceleration but incur noticeable quality loss, while token sparse methods are usually more accurate yet deliver limited end-to-end speedup because top-k routing over the full cache remains expensive. In this work, we propose cross-layer sparse attention (CLSA), which is built on top of KV-sharing architectures such as YOCO. The core idea is to share not only the KV cache across cross-decoder layers, but also the routing index. A single indexer computes token-level top-k selection once and reuses the resulting index across layers, thereby preserving the fine-grained selectivity of token sparse attention while amortizing the routing overhead. The resulting architecture improves all major inference bottlenecks jointly, including pre-filling, KV-cache storage, and long-context decoding. Experiments across short-context and long-context benchmarks show that CLSA is both accurate and efficient, achieving up to 7.6x decoding speedup and 17.1x overall throughput improvement at 128K context. These results suggest a more complete architectural solution for long-context LLMs that jointly advances model quality and inference efficiency.

Next-generation wireless networks are moving toward the use of concurrent AI-driven control functions to optimize different objectives, particularly in AI-RAN and O-RAN architectures. When these functions interact, they can interfere with one another in ways that are difficult to detect from raw network data alone. A key missing piece for managing such interactions is a reliable, interpretable dependency structure that captures which control parameters are actively influencing which network performance outcomes at any given time. This paper focuses on the event-detection step needed to support such dependency learning: given noisy continuous parameter and KPI telemetry, we seek to determine when a genuine control action occurs and when a KPI exhibits a corresponding control-induced response. The difficulty is that KPI fluctuations may also arise from background or exogenous variation, so observed changes cannot be treated directly as control events. To address this challenge, we develop a significance-based event-detection procedure that converts continuous parameter and KPI increments into binary control-activity and KPI-response indicators. To evaluate this procedure, we construct a controlled closed-loop telemetry generator with planted parameter–KPI dependencies and tunable background variation. Experiments show that the proposed procedure reliably detects control-induced events and recovers the underlying dependency structure, outperforming alternative event-detection methods across a range of background-variation levels.

Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) addresses problems where supervision is available at the level of bags of instances and has been successfully applied in fields ranging from computational pathology to satellite imagery. Nevertheless, existing algorithms struggle in the low-label regime that characterizes many real-world applications. Flexible models overfit and rigid ones fail to adapt to the task at hand. We show that pretraining an in-context learner with a Perceiver-style architecture on synthetic data yields a model that can solve new tasks from a handful of labeled bags. At inference time, classification happens in a single forward pass and requires no gradient updates. We propose and investigate different synthetic data generators for bag-structured data and find that they capture complementary inductive biases. A model pretrained on a mixture of these generators inherits their per-task strengths and achieves the best average performance across twelve MIL benchmarks, outperforming supervised baselines that require task-specific training.

Large language models often improve reasoning by generating explicit chain-of-thought (CoT), demonstrating the importance of intermediate computation. However, textual CoT forces this computation through a discrete, serial, and communication-oriented token stream: each reasoning step must be verbalized before the model can proceed, even when the underlying update is semantic, uncertain, or only partially formed. Latent reasoning offers a higher-bandwidth alternative by performing intermediate computation in compact continuous states before committing to text. Yet existing latent-reasoning methods often sacrifice key advantages that make CoT effective in autoregressive language models, including native left-to-right generation, probabilistic sampling, compatibility with KV-cache decoding, and tractable likelihood estimation. We propose NF-CoT, a latent reasoning framework that preserves these advantages by modeling continuous thoughts with normalizing flows. NF-CoT instantiates a TARFlow-style normalizing flow inside the LLM backbone, defining a tractable probability model over compact continuous thoughts distilled from explicit CoT. Continuous-thought positions are generated by an NF head, while text positions are generated by the standard LM head within the same causal stream. This design provides exact likelihoods for latent thoughts, enables probabilistic left-to-right decoding with the original KV cache, and supports direct policy-gradient optimization in the latent reasoning space. On code-generation benchmarks, NF-CoT improves pass rates over explicit-CoT and prior latent-reasoning baselines while substantially reducing intermediate-reasoning cost.

Data-driven causal relationship identification is pertinent to advancing understanding of complex systems both within and beyond science. Bayesian networks offer a probabilistic method for modelling generic causal relationships via directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, typical techniques for constructing Bayesian networks rely on optimization, which can be ill-suited for learning causal relationships because the underlying data may admit multiple chains of causation. More data-faithful representations of causal relationships would provide frameworks for constructing multiple causal maps that are consistent with the variability that is inherent in underlying data. Here, we show that entropy-based inference generates atlases of plausible causal relationships that are consistent with underlying data. On simulated noisy data of 2- and 20-node linear structural equation models, we sample a maximum-entropy ensemble of graphs that allow us to quantify the inherent structural ambiguity in underlying causal relationships. Our method shows that "optimized" DAGs can contain causal artifacts are not consistent across equivalently accurate topologies.

Many modern applications of deep learning involve training a neural network via a one-step prediction loss (e.g., $L^2$ regression, cross-entropy), but deploy the network by rolling out along its own predictions. Key examples include autoregressive language modeling, flow-based generative modeling, and robot policy learning. It is well-documented that these settings induce a phenomenon we call test-time feedback (TTF): the mismatch between the training/validation loss and downstream metrics of interest, such as task success rate and generation quality, which grows with task length. While data curation, architecture, and objective design have been proposed to combat train-test shift in TTF settings, this paper proposes optimization as a new design axis to mitigate error accumulation. Specifically, we introduce a new optimization paradigm called double-preconditioning (DoPr) uniquely tailored to the challenges of TTF. DoPr combines gradient-wise preconditioning, as in Adam and Muon, with activation-wise preconditioning (AP), such as in KFAC. We show that the addition of AP yields a drop-in intervention for increasing downstream model performance across a range of TTF settings. Interestingly, these gains in test-time performance do not consistently accompany improvements in validation loss, opening new questions about how to properly evaluate models trained with one-step supervised objectives.

Inference-time skill augmentation provides a lightweight way to improve data-analytic agents by injecting reusable procedural knowledge without updating model parameters. However, discovering effective skills for data analysis remains challenging, as reliable supervision is expensive and success criteria vary across analytical formats. This raises the key question of how to discover reusable data-analysis skills from unlabeled exploration alone. We propose DataCOPE, an unsupervised verifier-guided skill discovery framework for data-analytic agents. DataCOPE derives verifier signals from the exploration trajectories and uses them to characterize relative quality or aggreement among trajectories. It iteratively coordinates a Data-Analytic Agent for trajectory generation, an Unsupervised Verifier for signal extraction, and a Skill Manager for contrastive skill distillation. For report-style analysis, we instantiate the verifier as an Adaptive Checklist Verifier that derives task-specific criteria, scores reports by verifiable coverage, and iteratively refines the checklist. For reasoning-style analysis, we instantiate it as an Answer Agreement Verifier that groups trajectories by answer agreement and uses self-consistency as an auxiliary signal. We evaluate DataCOPE on report-style analysis from Deep Data Research and reasoning-style analysis from DABStep. Across both settings, DataCOPE consistently improves held-out performance over baselines. Averaged across four model settings, DataCOPE improves the mean score by 9.71% and 32.30% on report-style and reasoning-style tasks respectively.

Medical imaging artificial intelligence has achieved strong performance in isolated image interpretation, but remains poorly aligned with radiological practice, where diagnosis and follow-up rely on comparison across prior studies and analogous reference cases. Here we formulate radiological comparison as an entity-aware cross-image reasoning problem and introduce a framework that supports both reference-case retrieval and temporal comparative interpretation. We construct MedReCo-DB, a large-scale comparative imaging resource derived from routine image-report pairs, comprising more than 690,000 images from over 160,000 patients across eight institutions, four countries and seven imaging modalities. Reports are decomposed into anatomical structures, abnormal findings and pathological conditions to provide supervision for entity-conditioned retrieval and comparative visual question answering. Using this resource, we develop MedReCo, an entity-aware visual encoder for controllable retrieval of clinically analogous cases, and MedReCo-VLM, a vision–language extension for generative interpretation of interval change. Across internal, external and cross-center evaluations, MedReCo achieved the highest Recall@1 in all 12 internal retrieval settings and improved external retrieval by a mean of 6.0 percentage points. In clinically confusable differential groups, it consistently outperformed the strongest baselines. MedReCo-VLM achieved the best performance across all comparative generation evaluations and improved longitudinal follow-up accuracy by 14.5-46.5 percentage points on chest radiographs and 13.0-27.9 percentage points on CT. These findings suggest that entity-aware comparative reasoning can be learned from routine clinical data at scale and may provide a more clinically aligned foundation for medical imaging AI.

Current evaluation practices in relational learning rely heavily on flat leaderboards that average performance across heterogeneous datasets, implicitly assuming a uniform underlying structure. We show that this assumption introduces systematic bias: it obscures geometry-dependent performance variations and can lead to misleading conclusions about model generalization. In this work, we identify intrinsic geometry as a key latent factor governing model effectiveness. We demonstrate that conventional aggregated metrics mask critical performance trade-offs that only become visible when datasets are stratified by their geometric properties. To address this issue, we introduce a curvature-stratified evaluation framework that partitions datasets into positive, negative, and near-zero curvature regimes. Our benchmark evaluates 18 representative models including Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs), Graph Foundation Models (GFMs), and tabular learning methods across 14 datasets. We find that model rankings are highly stable within each curvature regime but shift significantly across regimes, indicating that performance is fundamentally geometry-dependent rather than universally transferable. Notably, we identify regimes where GFMs offer diminishing returns compared to geometry-aligned GNNs. Based on these findings, we propose a geometry-aware evaluation protocol that yields more reliable and interpretable comparisons than standard aggregated benchmarks. We release all code, curvature-stratified dataset splits, and evaluation tools to support reproducible and rigorous assessment of future relational learning methods. Code and datasets are provided in our project homepage: https://sirbabbage.github.io/CurvBench_HOME/.

Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. In survival analysis, such forecasts describe the distribution of the time until an event occurs. However, this event time is often only partially observed because follow-up may end before the event occurs, resulting in right censoring. We propose a framework for proper scoring of right-censored survival outcomes based on a simple idea: first, map the predictive distribution through the censoring mechanism, then apply the underlying proper score on the induced observed-data law. This yields localized scores for fixed censoring times and marginalized scores when the censoring time is random or only partially observed. The resulting construction recovers familiar right-censored likelihood and IPCW-type criteria within a coherent framework, while also yielding right-censored versions of the CRPS, pinball loss, Brier score, and energy score. We show that the marginalized construction is proper under conditional independent censoring and, for strictly proper base scores, identifies the latent joint CDF on the identifiable region. The same principle also leads to censored engression, a sample-based learning objective for multivariate right-censored survival modeling. In experiments, our scores correctly rank the oracle forecast across several censoring regimes, whereas forecast-dependent plug-in weighted scores can exhibit ranking reversals. Censored engression likewise substantially improves over naive training on censored outcomes.

Sharing the financial impact of rare adverse events across a group can soften extreme individual burdens, but any participant made worse off by the arrangement has reason to leave. A credible mechanism must therefore provide each agent with a trustworthy cap on their future obligation and should be deployed only if the aggregate harm across participants is bounded. We formalise this as the Certified Allocation Problem: from finite data and without distributional assumptions, find a redistribution rule, produce obligation caps for every participant, and verify that no participant is made materially worse off. We propose Conformal Risk Sharing, which solves this problem by pairing an interpretable sharing policy with split conformal calibration. The sharing intensity is tuned on training data, while held-out calibration data produces distribution-free per-agent guarantees (valid under exchangeability). Experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including precipitation and energy-cooperative data, confirm that the framework can substantially reduce extreme obligations for high-risk agents while controlling harm to others.

This article presents a cross-dataset evaluation of learned native-cell surrogate models for solver-consistent water-surface elevation (WSE) prediction in HEC-RAS 2D. To avoid raster remapping error and information-access confounding, surrogates are evaluated directly on the original nonuniform computational cells under an explicit policy that separates static project inputs, current hydraulic state, project-input forcing, calibration-derived quantities, and future solver-output targets. We introduce the Learned Response-Field Inertia Operator (LRFIO), a no-forcing, increment-based learned surrogate that calibrates an inertial response operator from solved HEC-RAS trajectories and deploys the retained operator through closed-form native-cell rollout. LRFIO evaluates a base-case-first response hierarchy consisting of persistence, global calibrated inertia, and segmented response-field inertia. Segmentation, residual correction, and neuralized inertia are treated as learnable modeling choices, with added complexity retained only when validation evidence justifies its cost. Evaluated across four diverse HEC-RAS 2D benchmarks, LRFIO retains different response structures for different domains, demonstrating adaptive learned complexity. The selector audit shows controlled complexity with a maximum validation regret of 4.30%. During deployment, retained rollout times range from 0.003 s to 0.242 s, and the Beaver Bayou measured-solve comparison gives an estimated 2.75 x 10^4 horizon-normalized speedup over HEC-RAS. These results indicate that the current native-cell increment is a strong solver-conditioned predictive scaffold and that added response-field, neural, or spatial complexity should be retained only when empirically justified.

Subgraph detection seeks to identify whether and where instances of query patterns occur within a larger graph. This problem is fundamental across scientific domains and is closely related to subgraph isomorphism, which is NP-complete, limiting combinatorial approaches to small patterns or moderately sized graphs. We introduce GraphDETR, a deep learning framework that formulates subgraph detection as a set prediction problem, analogous to DETR in object detection. GraphDETR encodes the target graph with a graph neural network, and employs a fixed set of learnable query vectors, decoded via a transformer decoder, to predict all pattern occurrences jointly in a single forward pass. This is enabled by training the model end-to-end with bipartite matching. Unlike traditional combinatorial methods that only solve exact structural matching, GraphDETR naturally extends to approximate matching, enabling detection beyond exact pattern correspondence. Empirically, we show that GraphDETR can detect diverse patterns, such as molecular structures, cycles, cliques, and fuzzy patterns of up to 50 nodes, in target graphs with up to 1000 nodes. We further evaluate on molecular functional group detection over the ChEMBL dataset, where GraphDETR predicts the complete set of functional groups per molecule, achieving a strong performance of $\text{AP}_{100} = 91.2$.

Machine learning is increasingly employed for the evaluation of football tactics. However, existing approaches focus on characterising historical actions or analyst-specified counterfactual scenarios. In this work, we seek to go beyond the imitation of historically observed patterns towards discovering new generalisable player configurations and strategies. To tackle this, we focus on optimising corner kick routines, and formulate a decision-making problem in which a central policy makes adjustments to attacking player positions and velocities to maximise first contact shot probability. Unlike classic optimisation that solves for isolated setups, we contribute a reinforcement learning architecture operating on graph-structured data that yields a general policy for adjusting arbitrary starting player positions. Evaluated on over 3,000 Premier League corners, our approach strongly outperforms baseline optimisation techniques under matched inference budgets. Our results suggest that graph reinforcement learning can shift set-piece analysis from historical evaluation and imitation towards reward-driven tactical discovery.

Vessel trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is essential for maritime situational awareness, yet it remains challenging due to irregular sampling, missing reports, and complex dynamics. Beyond accurate point forecasts, maritime applications also demand well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for reliable decision-making. Bayesian Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) offer a principled framework for continuous-time trajectory modeling with uncertainty quantification by placing a prior over the neural vector field parameters. However, the commonly used isotropic Gaussian weight prior fails to encode informative structural properties of vessel dynamics, such as smoothness and locality. Existing function-space Bayesian neural network methods address this limitation for static mappings, but do not transfer directly to Neural ODEs, where the primary quantity of interest is the trajectory rather than the vector field itself. In principle, one could place a Gaussian process (GP) prior directly over ODE solutions, but this requires propagating distributions through a nonlinear ODE solver, which is analytically intractable. To address this challenge, we adopt a practical approach that imposes a GP-kernel-based prior directly on the vector field evaluated at a finite set of measurement points. Specifically, we augment the standard weight-space variational objective with a kernel-based regularizer that penalizes deviations of the vector field from the structure implied by a GP prior. To handle long and irregular AIS trajectories, we further combine this function-space regularization with probabilistic multiple shooting, which decouples inference across temporal segments while maintaining global consistency.

The paradigm of global weather forecasting is rapidly shifting with the emergence of Machine Learning Weather Prediction models (MLWP). While these data-driven architectures demonstrate remarkable global skill, regional benchmarks in the Global South remain scarce, leaving their efficacy in complex, highly convective environments largely unverified. This study evaluates the performance of GraphCast operational against the deterministic ECMWF IFS HRES as baseline across four distinct Brazilian climatic sub-regions. Utilizing a scalable, cloud-native pipeline and the WeatherBench-X framework for benchmarking weather models, we assess selected tropospheric variables ($T_{850}$, $Q_{850}$, $Z_{500}$) over four selected seasonal windows, employing the operational IFS analysis as the ground truth to calculate the statistical metrics for both models. Results reveal a regime-dependent skill profile. During the austral winter, GraphCast underperforms in the medium range (lead days 2-7) for $Z_{500}$ when resolving fast-propagating baroclinic systems over southern Brazil, but regains an advantage in the extended range, where its inherent smoothing of chaotic small-scale variability becomes beneficial under deterministic skill metrics. Conversely, during the austral summer wet season, GraphCast accurately captures large-scale moisture transport while intrinsically dampening the high-frequency convective variability that degrades deterministic NWP temperature forecasts. These findings establish a baseline for Brazil and define the specific physical boundaries that will guide future “tropicalization” efforts, aiming to optimize these foundational AI models for regional resilience.

This paper addresses the problem of attack detection in cyber-physical systems without any knowledge of the plant model or its structure. A remotely located plant transmits sensor measurements to an operator over a network that is assumed to be under attack. We consider two classes of attacks: model-free replay attacks and model-based stealthy attacks. For the latter, we derive closed-form expressions for the optimal stealthy attack policy against a $\chi^2$ detector, for both linear and nonlinear systems. We then propose a model-structure-free detector based on TimesFM, a time-series foundation model developed by Google Research, which serves as a surrogate residual generator operating in a zero-shot fashion. We show empirically that the TimesFM-based detector achieves a comparable or superior attack detection performance. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated numerically on the IEEE 14-bus power system. We also demonstrate that TimesFM predictions can serve as a substitute for corrupted measurements, a practical mitigation technique when classical redundancy assumptions fail.

Brain decoding is limited by the availability of labeled neural data, and remains challenging in low-data regimes. To address this issue, we investigate whether and when brain decoding can be boosted by augmenting small fMRI datasets with synthetic data generated by a pretrained model of fMRI responses to stimuli. We use TRIBE v2, a large encoding model pretrained on more than 1000 hours of fMRI responses to video, audio and language. For each dataset, we evaluate systematic grids that show how the performance of image decoders varies with the amount of synthetic data used for training. Our results, based on two datasets (the 7T fMRI Natural Scenes Dataset and 3T fMRI BOLD5000), show up to 68% improvement in Top-10 image-retrieval accuracy compared to decoders trained only on real data. Importantly, the proportion of augmented data required to reach a given image decoding performance needs to be adjusted depending on the data source. Surprisingly, image decoders trained exclusively on synthetic fMRI can perform above chance in some settings, suggesting that TRIBE v2 can support zero-shot brain-to-image decoding. Together, these results show how large-scale models of the fMRI responses to sight, sound and language may provide a foundation to improve the data efficiency for image decoding.

Probabilistic inference over spatially embedded variables requires beliefs that respect $SE(3)$ symmetry, yet existing equivariant networks produce only scalars and vectors – not the rank-2 precision tensors needed for anisotropic uncertainty, and single-component messages collapse multi-modal energy landscapes to physically meaningless averages. We introduce Equivariant Neural Belief Propagation (ENBP), a factor-graph framework whose messages are equivariant Gaussian mixture models with sufficient statistics that transform exactly under $SE(3)$. Rank-2 precision matrices are synthesised via equivariant outer products, ingested through differentiable spectral decomposition, and kept tractable by a greedy KL-based mixture reduction that provably commutes with $SE(3)$. On GEOM-QM9 and GEOM-Drugs, ENBP achieves 98.9% conformational coverage at 0.090 $\mathring{A}$ error with sub-second latency – over $100\times$ faster than diffusion baselines at higher accuracy. On multi-body robotic inference, vanilla loopy BP diverges at 15+ agents while ENBP converges with near-zero collision rates and machine-precision equivariance error (${\sim}10^{-7}$ vs.\ $10^{-1}$ for augmented baselines).

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) offers a principled, intrinsic lens for comparing neural representations. However, existing paired topological divergences (e.g., RTD) are limited by heuristic asymmetry and, more critically, unbounded scores that depend on sample size, hindering reliable cross-scenario benchmarking. To address these challenges, we develop a unified topological toolkit serving two complementary needs: fine-grained structural diagnosis and robust, standardized evaluation. First, we complete the RTD framework by introducing Symmetric Representation Topology Divergence (SRTD) and its efficient variant SRTD-lite. Beyond resolving the theoretical asymmetry of prior variants, SRTD consolidates diagnostic information into a single, comprehensive cross-barcode signature. This allows for precise localization of structural discrepancies and serves as an effective optimization objective without the overhead of dual directional computations. Second, to enable reliable benchmarking across heterogeneous settings, we propose Normalized Topological Similarity (NTS). By measuring the rank correlation of hierarchical merge orders, NTS yields a scale-invariant metric bounded between -1 and 1, effectively overcoming the scale and sample-dependence of unnormalized divergences. Experiments across synthetic and real-world deep learning settings demonstrate that our toolkit captures functional shifts in CNNs missed by geometric measures and robustly maps LLM genealogy even under distance saturation, offering a rigorous, topology-aware perspective that complements measures like CKA.

Performance estimation under distribution shift aims to predict how a model behaves on an unlabeled test set whose distribution differs from the training data, a scenario that requires reliable indicators that can faithfully reflect model behavior without ground-truth labels. Existing approaches rely solely on the outputs of the given model whose biases are amplified once the distribution shifts, weakening the correlation with the true performance. Motivated by this limitation, we propose Fused Reference Alignment Prediction (FRAP), which leverages the complementary strengths of an external foundation model and the base model to construct a more reliable surrogate of the ground-truth labels. FRAP aligns the prediction distribution of the foundation model with that of the base model by applying temperature-scaled calibration that minimizes their divergence. The aligned predictions are fused through confidence-based weighting into a refined reference distribution that integrates robustness from the foundation model and domain-specific expertise from the base model, and performance estimation is obtained by measuring how closely the base model predictions agree with this reference. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and architectures show that FRAP provides consistent and substantial improvements over representative performance-estimation methods under distribution shift.

Counterfactuals are typically used in high-stakes decision areas to explain a machine learning model by showing how changes to the user profiles result in the desired outcome. However, explaining the model's decisions through counterfactuals can also be exploited by an adversary to conduct privacy attacks against the model or its training data. Drawing on the analogy that counterfactuals provide realistic substitutes for real training data, similar to synthetic data, we demonstrate in this paper how it is possible to successfully perform privacy attacks on counterfactuals by drawing on the attacks developed against synthetic data. More precisely, we investigate the effectiveness of the membership inference attacks designed for synthetic data on various types of counterfactuals. Additionally, while existing membership inference attacks against counterfactuals usually require to be able to query the model, we show how it is possible to perform successful membership inference attacks using only a set of counterfactuals, with no access to the model from which they are generated. Our results demonstrate that model developers should be more cautious when releasing counterfactuals to various users, as it can lead to a privacy breach.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used for mechanistic interpretability in large language models, yet their formulation assigns each latent feature a single decoder direction, implicitly assuming features to be one-dimensional. We show that this assumption mismatches with the multi-dimensional structure of model features, provably inducing feature splitting through two distinct mechanisms. Geometrically, reconstructing a feature of intrinsic dimension $d_i \ge 2$ to error $\varepsilon$ with single-direction decoders forces a number of atoms that is exponential in $d_i$. From an end-to-end optimization perspective, this splitting is not merely possible but actively preferred. We prove that there exists a continuous path from the true $d_i$-dimensional basis to a strictly lower risk of the $\ell_1$-regularized SAE objective, whose descent directions drive any trained dictionary into that exponential regime. A single coherent feature is therefore fragmented across many near-collinear latents, producing spurious multiplicity and obscuring the intrinsic geometry. Motivated by this, we introduce Subspace-Aware Sparse Autoencoders (SASA), which replace single-vector decoders with learned decoder subspaces, enforce block sparsity via Top-$s$ group gating, and adapt each group's effective rank with a nuclear-norm regularizer. We then show that once the block size satisfies $r \ge d_i$, a single group not only can represent the entire feature slice but is the global minimizer of the SASA objective. This consolidation yields a sample complexity polynomial in $d_i$ rather than exponential – a decisive advantage given that every training activation costs an LLM forward pass. Empirically, on GPT-2 and Mistral-7B, SASA reduces feature splitting and absorption, improves monosemanticity and interpretability, and matches or exceeds standard SAEs while training on roughly half the token budget.

Estimating local mean curvature at each point of a high-dimensional dataset is a key ingredient of geometry-aware machine learning algorithms, such as the Mean Curvature Boundary Points (MCBP) method. The naive implementation of this computation, based on a local shape operator approximated from k-nearest neighbor patches, involves an explicit construction of a matrix $H$ whose trace form yields an $O(m^4)$ cost per point, rendering the approach intractable for datasets with more than a few dozen features. This paper introduces two complementary contributions that together reduce this cost by several orders of magnitude. The first contribution is an exact algebraic identity. This identity, derived from the orthogonality of the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix and the cyclicity of the trace operator, eliminates $H$ entirely and reduces the per-point cost to $O(m^2)$ after the eigendecomposition. The second contribution addresses the remaining $O(m^3)$ bottleneck of the full eigendecomposition. Since the local covariance matrix has rank at most $k-1 \ll m$, we replace it with a truncated SVD of the $k \times m$ centered data matrix, an $O(k^2 m)$ operation, and derive an analytical approximation for the contribution of the null-space eigenvectors based on the expected value of their outer product under the Haar measure. The resulting estimator has total cost $O(k^2 m + k m p^2)$, where $p = k-1$. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm speedups of 50 to 300 times relative to the original implementation, with negligible loss when the fast estimator is used to replace the original version. By providing a scalable and data-driven estimate of local curvature, the proposed method establishes curvature as a practical geometric feature for a broad range of machine learning tasks, from classical to modern deep learning pipelines.

In healthcare, multimodal time series tasks often operate on incomplete observations in practice, for example when ECG segments are lost because electrodes detach or an entire respiratory channel is unavailable during overnight monitoring. Such missingness typically appears in two structurally distinct patterns: within-modality missing, where values are absent within an otherwise observed modality, and modality-level missing, where an entire modality is unavailable. Existing methods typically represent unobserved data implicitly through masks or missing embeddings, without learning instance-specific missing information, and most are designed for only one missingness pattern. A natural approach is to explicitly estimate the missing data; however, existing imputation methods treat missingness uniformly despite their different structural priors, and the imputation process is often isolated from downstream tasks, preventing downstream tasks from guiding imputation toward more informative representations. To address these limitations, we present PAMF, a multimodal time-series framework that explicitly handles different missingness patterns while coupling imputation with downstream prediction through prior-aware flow matching and weight sharing. Specifically, the method initializes the flow-matching source state with type-specific priors to distinguish two missing types. It further connects imputation and classification through architecturally matched encoders with weight sharing, transferring task-relevant representations into the imputation process. Experiments on multiple multimodal healthcare time-series benchmarks show that the proposed method achieves the strongest overall downstream performance across diverse datasets and missing settings compared with existing baselines.