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Thursday 4 June

Machine Learning

Learning What to Forget: Improving LLM Unlearning via Learned Token-Level Importance

Machine unlearning aims to remove targeted knowledge from a trained model while preserving its general capabilities. For autoregressive language models, not all tokens in a forget sample are equally relevant to forgetting. Existing approaches either ignore this heterogeneity or rely on auxiliary models, heuristics, or external annotations to estimate each token's relevance for forgetting. We instead characterize it through the interaction with the retain objective: a token is forget-specific to the extent that minimizing the forget loss on that token does not conflict with retain optimality. We formalize this perspective as a joint optimization problem over the model parameters and the token weights and show that, under a natural separation condition, the resulting objective recovers the oracle forget-specific token support. Motivated by this formulation, we introduce Alternating Token-Weighted Unlearning (ATWU), a lightweight framework that jointly learns token forget-specificity and model parameters during unlearning using a simple linear scorer over the hidden states, without external token level supervision. Across TOFU and RWKU, ATWU achieves state of the art forget-retain trade-offs, outperforming sample-level methods, probability-based token weighting heuristics, and auxiliary-model-based approaches. Moreover, the learned scores align substantially better with ground truth forget-specific spans, indicating that ATWU identifies semantically meaningful token level forgetting signals. Overall, our results suggest that retain conflict provides an effective criterion for identifying what language models should forget, enabling unsupervised learning of token level forget-specificity directly from model representations with minimal computational overhead.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.NA

DAS-PINNs for high-dimensional partial differential equations: extending deep adaptive sampling to spacetime domains

Time-dependent high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) with spatially localised and dynamically evolving solutions pose a fundamental challenge for physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), as uniform collocation sampling becomes increasingly ineffective in high-dimensional spatiotemporal domains. In this work, a deep adaptive sampling framework for PINNs is extended to the time-dependent setting by treating space and time as a unified domain without any explicit time marching. A normalising flow neural network model effectively learns the distribution induced by the PDE residual and generates new collocation points concentrated in regions where the solution is most difficult to learn. Unlike conventional adaptive strategies that require explicit time stepping or moving meshes, high-residual regions are automatically identified and tracked across both space and time, driven purely by the PDE residual distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is assessed on a range of benchmark problems, from sharp and moving features in two spatial dimensions to localised structures in up to eight spatial dimensions.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

Wall Shear Stress Reconstruction from Concentration: Differentiable Physics and Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Wall shear stress (WSS) governs near-wall transport dynamics and is a key hemodynamic indicator in cardiovascular flows, yet remains difficult to infer accurately due to the need for precise computation of near-wall velocity gradients. Passive scalar fields, such as concentration or temperature, are advected by the same underlying velocity field and have the potential to uncover hidden flow physics metrics such as WSS. In this work, we demonstrate such reconstruction from spatially limited passive scalar observations using two fundamentally different inverse frameworks: a differentiable physics framework based on discrete adjoint, PDE-constrained optimization, which enforces the governing equations as hard constraints, and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), which treat them as soft constraints. Benchmark problems include a 2D canonical backward-facing step (2D-BFS) and a 3D patient-specific stenotic coronary artery. For the 2D-BFS case, evaluated under three measurement scenarios (near-wall, far-field, and combined), PINN achieves high accuracy when near-wall data are available but fails when restricted to far-field measurements, whereas the differentiable physics approach recovers accurate WSS across all scenarios. In the 3D patient-specific case, the differentiable physics framework outperforms PINNs, yielding accurate WSS reconstruction. These results establish that measurement location and inverse formulation jointly determine reconstruction fidelity in scalar-based near-wall flow inference. The proposed framework opens a path toward estimation of near-wall hemodynamics from scalar transport data, with broader applicability to fluid flow problems where passive scalars can be observed.
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All authors Mahmoud Elhadidy, Siva Viknesh, Roshan M. D'Souza, Amirhossein Arzani

Machine Learning

Plug-and-Play Guidance for Discrete Diffusion Models via Gradient-Informed Logit Correction

Controllable generation with discrete diffusion models is often hindered by high computational overhead or the need for retraining. In this paper, we present \underline{G}radient-\underline{I}nformed \underline{L}ogit \underline{C}orrection (GILC), a plug-and-play framework that efficiently estimates guidance signals by repurposing the pretrained denoising network as a variational proxy. To circumvent the gradient instability inherent in high-dimensional discrete spaces, we introduce a Jacobian-free mechanism that directly corrects the clean prediction logits, facilitating stable and effective guidance. Our method accommodates both differentiable and non-differentiable reward functions. Extensive experiments across DNA, protein sequence, and molecular generation tasks demonstrate that GILC achieves state-of-the-art performance without additional training, frequently outperforming fine-tuning approaches.
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All authors Hongkun Dou, Zike Chen, Fengji Li, Hongjue Li, Yue Deng

Machine Learning

Tangram: Unlocking Non-Uniform KV Cache Compression for Efficient Multi-turn LLM Serving

Multi-turn LLM serving accumulates dialogue history whose Key-Value (KV) cache grows with every turn and every user, quickly exceeding the model weights themselves and making memory – not compute – the binding constraint on throughput. Non-uniform KV compression, which allocates heterogeneous budgets across attention heads, preserves accuracy far better than uniform schemes, yet remains impractical: modern serving stacks assume identical KV lengths across heads, so heterogeneity traps freed memory as page fragmentation, spends up to 25% of prefill time reclaiming scattered pages, and skews GPU workloads that inflate decode latency by up to $1.7\times$ or burn 15–20% of each decode step on re-planning. We observe that this heterogeneity need not be discovered at runtime: head-wise retention follows a two-level structural regularity – an input-invariant head ranking with narrowly bounded per-head ratios – that can be calibrated offline from as few as 50 samples. Building on this insight, we present Tangram, a serving framework that statically resolves what prior systems handle dynamically: Budget Reservation fixes each head's post-compression footprint at scheduling time, eliminating page reclamation; Ragged Paging clusters similar-budget heads into independent page tables, turning fragmentation into reclaimable memory; and Ahead-of-Time Load Balancing precomputes balanced GPU partitions with zero runtime planning. Implemented on vLLM, Tangram serves as a drop-in substrate for existing non-uniform compression methods, matching their accuracy while improving end-to-end throughput by up to $2.6\times$ over the full-KV baseline. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/aiha-lab/TANGRAM.
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All authors Hyungmin Kim, Minsoo Kim, Hongseok Kim, Jungwook Choi

Machine Learning

Reactive Flux Matching: Mechanism Discovery and Adaptive Sampling of Rare Events

Path sampling methods generate ensembles of reactive trajectories connecting metastable states, but extracting mechanistic insight from these data remains nontrivial. We introduce Flux Matching, a framework that learns two complementary objects directly from reactive trajectory data: a current velocity $u(z)$, whose streamlines trace the dominant reaction pathways, and a scalar potential $h(z)$, obtained from a weighted Helmholtz-Hodge decomposition of the reactive current, that serves as a data-driven reaction coordinate. Both minimize quadratic functionals over the reactive path ensemble, analogous to the flow matching loss in generative modeling, and require no knowledge of the underlying dynamics or stationary distribution. Unlike committor-based methods, $u$ and $h$ remain well-defined under projection onto non-Markovian collective variables, and their level sets in turn provide adaptive interfaces for improved sampling with enhanced sampling methods. Flux Matching is validated through the generation of current velocity trajectories and rate constant calculations on molecular systems.
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All authors Rishal Aggarwal, David Ryan Koes, Nicholas M. Boffi, Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Machine Learning

PAC-Bayesian Adversarially Robust Generalization for Message Passing Graph Neural Networks: A Sensitivity Analysis

Whilst the vulnerability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to adversarial attacks poses a critical threat to graph representation learning, the understanding of the robust generalization behavior remains a fundamental challenge in the adversarial setting. Recently, PAC-Bayesian margin-based generalization analysis substantially advances this line of research by providing a flexible and data-dependent analytical framework. However, existing robust analyses often rely on isotropic Gaussian posteriors and control weight perturbations in the full parameter space, which limits the ability to capture heterogeneous parameter sensitivity yet hinges on hidden-width-dependent complexity terms, resulting in not-tight-enough generalization bounds. In this paper, we extend a recently proposed sensitivity-aware PAC-Bayesian framework from deep neural networks to message passing GNNs (MPGNNs) and derive a tighter robust generalization bound in the adversarial setting. Specifically, we first quantify how sensitive the perturbations across different parameter blocks are to the network outputs by deriving the output Jacobians with respect to the weight parameters. Exploiting the fact that these Jacobian matrices have rank at most $K$ in $K$-class graph classification, we then construct Jacobian-aligned sensitivity matrices and use anisotropic Gaussian posteriors with optimized covariances to upper bound the KL divergence in a tight way. Notably, by refining the spectral-norm dependence on the learned weights and reducing the leading dimension factor from hidden-width-dependent terms to the number of classes $K$, our analysis yields much tighter robust generalization guarantees for MPGNNs, thereby guiding their designs to enhance adversarial robustness.
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All authors Ziling Liang, Xinping Yi, Qingsong Wen, Shi Jin

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Discrete Causal Representations from Heterogeneous Domains: A Bayesian Approach with Social Survey Applications

Causal representation learning aims to infer the high-level latent causal concepts that give rise to observed low-level measurements. This is particularly relevant for heterogeneous data from different environments or domains since distribution shifts often arise through sparse, localized changes in some of the underlying causal mechanisms, while other parts of the generative process remain unchanged. Whereas identifiability of causal representations has been studied extensively, practical uncertainty-aware methods and real-world use cases remain less explored. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach to learning causal representations from multi-environment data, focusing on the case of discrete causal concepts and unknown multi-node soft interventions. To this end, we translate causal assumptions and interpretability desiderata into suitable priors and parametric choices within a hierarchical model. We then devise an inference scheme based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling to approximate the resulting multimodal posterior. We showcase our approach through case studies on social survey data, where latent causal concepts correspond to cultural values or political opinions, measurements to survey responses, and environments to different countries or states. Our model infers meaningful high-level concepts and plausible causal relations among them, demonstrating its utility for learning causal representations of complex real-world data.
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All authors Ankur Garg, Michael Stettler, Aaron Schein, Julius von Kügelgen

Machine Learning

Your GFlowNet Secretly Learns an Optimal Transport Plan

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are a framework for sampling structured objects via stochastic trajectories in a directed graph. In this work, we establish a theoretical connection between non-acyclic GFlowNets and optimal transport (OT). We show that fixing the initial flow distribution in a minimum-flow GFlowNet reduces its objective to a Kantorovich OT problem with graph-induced shortest path costs. At the optimum, the learned GFlowNet policy therefore encodes an optimal transport plan from the source distribution to the target distribution: we show that sampling trajectories from the minimum-flow GFlowNet recovers the corresponding optimal coupling. Our formulation enables applying the GFlowNet learning framework to OT problems on large graphs via edge flows and neural parameterization. Experiments confirm agreement with exact OT solvers and demonstrate that GFlowNets can learn high-quality transport plans.
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All authors Ian Maksimov, Nikita Morozov, Denis Belomestny, Sergey Samsonov

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

GRAMformer: Any-Order Modality Interactions via Volumetric Multimodal Cross-Attention

Transformer-based multimodal models rely on attention mechanisms to integrate information across heterogeneous modalities. Despite their success, existing multimodal attention formulations compute their scores through collections of pairwise dot-product interactions or by concatenating all the modalities into the keys, even when multiple modalities should be jointly involved. As a consequence, current approaches either incur quadratic complexity in the number of modalities or fail to explicitly model interactions that depend on the joint configuration of multiple representations. In this work, we introduce the Volumetric Multimodal cross-Attention (VMA), a novel cross-attention mechanism in which attention scores are defined as a function of the joint geometry of a query and multiple modality-specific keys. VMA computes the volume spanned by query and key vectors across multiple modalities, capturing joint multimodal dependencies beyond pairwise similarity, enabling native modeling of any-order modality interactions. We integrate VMA into our novel multimodal transformer architecture, named GRAMformer, explicitly designed to integrate any number of modalities. We evaluate the proposed model on multimodal learning tasks, demonstrating improved effectiveness and efficiency.
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Machine Learning

Generative Criticality in Large Language Model Temperature Scaling

We propose a statistical-field framework for text generated by large language models (LLMs), treating token embeddings as continuous spin variables on a one-dimensional chain. Defining a susceptibility from the connected two-point correlator and an order parameter from the ensemble-averaged embedding field, we vary the softmax temperature $T$ and observe a sharp susceptibility peak near a characteristic $T_c$ with power-law-like scaling, a concurrent rapid change in the order parameter, and a collapse onto a single semantic direction below $T_c$. The intrinsic dimension estimated by the two nearest neighbor (TwoNN) method independently corroborates these findings, reaching a minimum near $T_c$. Results are robust across model scales (Qwen3: 0.6B–32B) and prompt categories. While the phenomenology closely resembles a continuous phase transition, the non-equilibrium nature of autoregressive generation warrants further investigation. Our framework provides quantitative tools for probing the collective statistical structure of LLM outputs and suggests connections between decoding strategies and critical phenomena.
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All authors Huajian Ruan, Jinyang Li, Xingyu Guo, Lingxiao Wang

Machine Learning

Tracing the Oracle: Improving Diffusion Timestep Scheduling for 3D CT Reconstruction

Pretrained diffusion models demonstrate impressive potential in solving highly ill-posed 3D computed tomography (CT) inverse problems, while the inference process suffers from significant computational overhead. Furthermore, existing uniform timestep schedules fail to capture the non-uniform evolution of the reverse conditional diffusion stochastic differential equation, thereby introducing substantial truncation errors. To overcome this limitation, we propose Tracing the Oracle (TrO), a plug-and-play framework for improved timestep scheduling. Specifically, we treat densely sampled numerical integration trajectories on a few samples as the reference oracle. The optimized schedule is extracted by leveraging dynamic programming to globally minimize the cumulative error between the few-step approximation and the oracle. This mechanism precisely allocates the limited sampling steps to critical evolution stages that are highly susceptible to truncation errors. Our extensive experiments on the AAPM dataset across multiple 3D CT reconstruction tasks demonstrate that, when combined with the state-of-the-art 3D CT reconstruction method DDS, our optimized timesteps significantly improve reconstruction fidelity and computational efficiency compared to existing heuristic schedules, especially under a strict budget of no more than 10 sampling steps.
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Machine Learning

Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting

Mortality forecasting plays an important role in actuarial and policy decision-making, but its implementation remains technically complex and inaccessible to non-expert users. This project proposes a reliable large language model (LLM)-integrated interface that improves usability while maintaining statistical power. The LLM is designed as a constrained orchestration layer that translates natural-language inputs into structured configurations for a deterministic forecasting pipeline. A three-phase methodology is employed to ensure accuracy, usability, and transparency. First, a baseline pipeline is implemented using the CoMoMo package, reproducing established mortality forecasting results. Second, the pipeline is extended to generate multi-step forecasts using rolling-origin evaluation and mean squared error (MSE). Third, a prototype interface uses a local LLM to handle users' forecasting requests in plain language. The system demonstrates that LLMs can enhance accessibility without compromising reproducibility, transparency, or actuarial validity in high-stakes analytical workflows.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Anchor PCA

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most widely used unsupervised dimension reduction techniques. We study PCA for data from multiple related domains. Since principal components generally differ across domains, one way to obtain a shared low-rank embedding is to perform PCA on the pooled data. However, this approach can focus on spurious directions that exhibit high variation in only a few domains. To find a robust embedding that still explains most variance in unseen but similar domains, we propose instead to focus on shared directions of variation. To this end, we introduce Anchor PCA which trades off overall explained variance with agreement between the shared and domain-specific low-rank embeddings. Anchor PCA amounts to PCA on a modified target matrix and thus can be solved efficiently. Moreover, we show that Anchor PCA recovers a maximal invariant subspace and admits a minimax reconstruction interpretation under bounded domain-specific covariance inflations. On simulated and real-world data with temporal distribution shift, we demonstrate, respectively, that Anchor PCA recovers the maximal invariant subspace and yields embeddings that explain more variance on unseen domains than the pooling baseline and a worst-case alternative. Taken together, these findings establish Anchor PCA as a promising approach to robust unsupervised dimension reduction from multi-domain data.
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All authors Benedikt Seiter, Anya Fries, Julius von Kügelgen, Jonas Peters

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

Reward hacking in physical reinforcement learning revealed by turbulent drag reduction

Reinforcement-learning controllers optimise specified rewards, but in physical systems those rewards often capture only part of the true control objective. Three mechanisms through which this mismatch can produce apparent success without physical improvement are identified: incomplete accounting that omits relevant costs, constraint enforcement outside the policy that corrupts credit assignment, and observations that fail to resolve the relevant dynamics. All three are demonstrated in active drag reduction of wall-bounded turbulence, where the conservation constraint and full energy budget can be measured directly. A memoryless learnt policy reports drag reduction while raising total dissipation, collapsing to non-physical flow configurations. A recurrent multi-agent controller with the zero-mean projection embedded in the actor, temporal memory matched to the relevant timescales, and an actuation cost that bounds the wall power delivers a physically consistent control. Progress in physical reinforcement learning requires the reward, constraints, observations and evaluation metrics to represent unequivocally the physical objective.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Bridging the Semantic-Collaborative Gap: An Asymmetric Graph Architecture for Cold-Start Item Recommendation

Collaborative filtering and graph-based recommendation models are highly effective because they leverage observed user interactions, but this dependence creates a fundamental cold-start challenge when newly added content has no interaction history. In Tubi's production retrieval system, this challenge is further constrained by the serving interface: new content must be assigned a standalone embedding immediately, and the model must also produce device embeddings suitable for approximate nearest-neighbor retrieval. We address this setting by formulating cold-start recommendation as an inductive graph-completion problem on a temporal bipartite device-content graph. We propose Shallow-RHS, an asymmetric link-prediction architecture in which the left-hand side (LHS) device tower leverages temporally valid watch-history message passing to capture collaborative signals, while the right-hand side (RHS) content tower is intentionally shallow with respect to the graph and encodes content solely from intrinsic features. The RHS tower does not use ID-based embeddings, content-side subgraphs, neighbor aggregation, or interaction-derived representations, forcing the content encoder to map intrinsic features into a collaborative-filtering-aware embedding space. After training, the learned content encoder generates embeddings for both warm and newly ingested content, enabling implicit graph completion through retrieval of warm surrogate neighbors. We further extend the same representation-completion principle to device cold-start by constructing cohort-based embeddings from demographic features. Large-scale online experiments demonstrate consistent relative improvements in content cold-start engagement, promotion speed, impression acquisition, and device cold-start engagement.
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All authors Anh Truong, John Trenkle, Yuanbo Chen, Honghong Zhao, Abdullah Alchihabi, Effy Fang, Michael Tamir

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Symb-xMIL: Symbolic Explanations for Multiple Instance Learning in Digital Pathology

Explanations of multiple instance learning (MIL) models are widely used for validation and discovery in digital histopathology. Existing methods primarily rely on heatmaps that highlight influential regions but do not explain how evidence from different tissue regions is combined to produce a prediction. This limits interpretability, especially when decisions depend on interactions between tissue features. We introduce Symbolic explainable MIL (Symb-xMIL), a post-hoc explanation framework that quantifies how a MIL model's behavior aligns with human-readable decision rules, expressed as logical relationships (e.g., AND, OR, NOT) between input features. These alignment scores reveal semantic patterns underlying the model's predictions. We evaluate Symb-xMIL on synthetic and real-world histopathology datasets. On synthetic MIL data, Symb-xMIL reliably recovers ground-truth logical rules. In a clinical tumor detection task, the best-aligned rules uncover heterogeneous decision patterns and expose hidden model errors. On an HPV-prediction task on TCGA-HNSCC, a cohort of head and neck cancer, our framework refines patient survival stratification beyond HPV status with potential clinical relevance. Overall, Symb-xMIL extends MIL explainability beyond visual attribution toward structured, rule-based reasoning, enabling more transparent and semantically grounded interpretation of model predictions.
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All authors Yanqing Luo, Julius Hense, Niklas Prenißl, Andreas Mock, Klaus-Robert Müller, Thomas Schnake, Mina Jamshidi Idaji

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Unsupervised Pattern Analysis in Japanese Veterinary Toxicology: A Regulatory-Compliant Framework for Cross-Species Risk Assessment

Veterinary pharmacovigilance systems are essential for monitoring adverse drug events (ADEs), yet existing approaches often fail to capture region-specific toxicity patterns shaped by local biological and regulatory contexts. In Japan, these challenges are amplified by species-specific metabolic differences and reporting practices defined by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF). Most prior work relies on prediction-oriented models, limiting mechanistic interpretability. This study proposes a regulatory-integrated unsupervised framework for pattern discovery using the National Veterinary Assay Laboratory (NVAL) database. ADEs are encoded into organ system-aligned representations and adjusted for species-specific reporting biases, enabling cross-species comparison. Similarity-based clustering and dimensionality reduction are applied to identify latent toxicity structures. Analysis of 4,120 high-confidence ADE reports (9,080 drug-ADE combinations) identified three significant species clusters (p < 0.01), including hepatic-dominant patterns in companion animals (0.42 $\pm$ 0.06), renal toxicity in ruminants (0.39 $\pm$ 0.07), and dermatological sensitivity in sheep (0.35 $\pm$ 0.07). Drug-level clustering achieved 83% alignment with pharmacological classes, while cosine similarity outperformed alternative metrics (silhouette score: 0.48; cluster precision: 87%). Regulatory validation showed strong agreement with established classifications. These findings demonstrate that regulation-aligned unsupervised analysis can uncover biologically meaningful, region-specific toxicity patterns, providing an interpretable and scalable framework for veterinary drug safety assessment.
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All authors Yukiko Kawakami, Mohammad Shirazi, Ryo Shimizuwa, Saito Shinoda, Alireza Mortazavi, Matsumoto Kawahara

Machine Learning

Non-Negative Matrix Factorization for Event Data

Continuous-time event data, in which entities emit instantaneous events over time, arises naturally across many domains such as neuroscience, seismology, and social networks. Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a natural tool to uncover interpretable structure in such data, but it has so far only been applied after binning or smoothing the entity-level counting measures. This preprocessing step comes with the risk of erasing entity-level heterogeneities and fine-grained temporal features. In this paper, we introduce EventNMF, a continuous-time non-negative factorization model that operates directly on event times: each entity's events are modeled as a Poisson process whose intensity factorizes through a non-negative B-spline basis, and a simple estimation procedure recovers interpretable temporal templates shared across entities. The resulting method is mathematically principled, easy to implement, and computationally efficient. We further show that standard binned-count approaches arise as the special case of degree-zero splines, explore bias-variance tradeoffs and compare against existing methods on a synthetic latent factor model, and demonstrate the effectiveness of EventNMF on several real-world applications.
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Machine Learning

A Machine Learning-Based Framework for Discovering Huntington's Disease Stages: Integrating Graph Representation Learning and clustering to Uncover Progression Dynamics in Longitudinal Enroll-HD Dataset

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive brain disorder that gradually affects movement, cognitive function, and behavior. Identifying the stage of the disease accurately and consistently is important for understanding its course, grouping patients, personalized care, and discovering treatment. Existing clinical staging frameworks rely primarily on predefined clinical measurement thresholds and clinical expert decisions, yet these discrete cut-offs may obscure meaningful intra-stage variability and remain vulnerable to inter-rater differences, especially in motor and functional assessments. To address these limitations, we developed an unsupervised machine learning framework based on dynamic graph representation learning to capture temporal relationships within and across patients from longitudinal clinical measurements. Using the learned representations, we applied K-means++ clustering to identify well-separated groups. We then iteratively increased the number of clusters (k), using stability analysis to assess robustness and reveal additional meaningful clusters beyond the initial optimal solution. We applied the framework to 302 individuals from the Enroll-HD cohort (1,477 visits, 44 clinical variables per visit; 80% manifest participants), enabling data-driven discovery of HD stages reflecting natural clinical progression. Despite the limited cohort size, the proposed framework achieved robust clustering performance using a four-dimensional latent space, identifying four meaningful and statistically distinct disease stages through clustering stability analysis. Each stage corresponded to well-defined clinical measurement boundaries, with minimal overlap compared to previously established clinical staging methods.
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All authors Lubna M. Abu Zohair, Marta Vallejo, MD Azher Uddin, John R. Woodward, Hind Zantout

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Diffusion Models Observe Only Gradients: A Geometric Perspective on Score Matching Errors

Score-based diffusion models are typically trained by minimizing the $L^2$ score matching error, and standard theoretical analyses rely on this quantity to bound the sampling discrepancy between the learned and target distributions. Recent work has shown that the score admits an orthogonal decomposition into gradient and solenoidal components in which only the gradient part matters for exact sampling. We apply this decomposition to the score error of trained models and study its quantitative consequences. Since only the gradient component of the error enters the marginal Fokker-Planck dynamics, a model can incur arbitrarily large $L^2$ score error while perfectly matching the target. Starting from this observation, we present three results. First, we derive an upper bound on the Kullback-Leibler divergence that depends only on the observable gradient component of the error. It tightens the standard Girsanov bound for generic score networks and identifies that bound's looseness as the cost of working with path-space rather than marginal-space dynamics. Second, we prove that no non-trivial function of the $L^2$ score error can uniformly lower bound any divergence between the learned and target distributions. Third, we give an estimator of the gradient component, computable from denoising score matching residuals via a dual Sobolev identity, which empirically correlates substantially better with sample quality than the full $L^2$ error.
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Machine Learning

Learning to Route LLMs from Implicit Cost-Performance Preferences via Meta-Learning

Large language models (LLMs) present a trade-off between performance and cost, where more powerful models incur greater expense. LLM routing aims to mitigate expenses while maintaining performance by sending queries to the most suitable model. However, existing methods cannot perform well for different user cost-performance preferences. To address this gap, we introduce a novel perceptive LLM routing paradigm for personalized and user-centric cost-performance optimization, which efficiently learns users' implicit preferences through little interaction. To handle the challenge of heterogeneous user needs, we formulate preference profiles as a set of distinct tasks in contextual bandit and propose MetaRouter, a meta-learning framework designed for preference-aware LLM routing. Experimental results show that MetaRouter outperforms strong baselines on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution tasks. Furthermore, it exhibits high efficiency in learning user preferences, robustness to changes in the routable LLMs, and scalability to multi-model routing.
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Machine Learning

Learning to model pediatric asthma exacerbation from multiple risk factors: a case study in coastal Virginia

Childhood asthma is a common illness exacerbated by air pollution as well as meteorological and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. Modeling asthma exacerbation (AE) in large spatiotemporal datasets requires disentangling impacts from multiple contributors. In this case study, we compared three techniques that balance predictive power with interpretability to predict AE in Hampton Roads, a coastal Virginia region comprising 7 cities and over 1.5 million people. After collating ambient air pollution measurements, weather data, and measures of neighborhood opportunity, we modeled zip code-level acute AE visits to a regional children's hospital and affiliated providers from 2018-2023. Generalized linear models (GLM) provided a baseline while neural networks (NN) served as a maximally predictive target. To bridge between statistical models and deep learning, we developed a framework based on sparse dictionary learning to identify and interpret parsimonious nonlinear interacting equations. After comparing each model's predictive performance, we estimated relative risks for AE due to input exposure variables and found consensus across frameworks. Our work links statistical and interpretable machine learning models to highlight possible synergistic interactions influencing AE, and may enable future studies to guide public health interventions in coastal Virginia.
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All authors Jonathan Colen, Eric Werner, Maryam Golbazi, Heather Richter, Diana McSpadden, Amy Quinn, Jocel Santos, Mary Jane Darling, Mary Margaret Gleason

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Effective Dimensionality as an Operator Invariant for Physics-Preserving Constraint Adaptation in Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-Informed Neural Networks inherently suffer from task interference because they rely on a shared parameter space to satisfy both governing differential equations and boundary conditions. We analyze this structural conflict using the Fisher Information Matrix to quantify the effective degrees of freedom ($d_{eff}$) in a physics-constrained model. Unlike the classical $d_{eff}$ which measures how many parameter directions are informed by data against a statistical prior, our $d_{eff}$ measures the dimension of the parameter directions unconstrained by the differential operator. For operators with finite-dimensional kernel, we show that $d_{eff}$ converges to the kernel dimension exactly, independent of network width, depth, or activation function, recasting it from a fit diagnostic into a structural invariant of the underlying continuous operator. For operators with infinite-dimensional kernel, $d_{eff}$ instead measures the network's finite-dimensional representational bandwidth for that kernel rather than recovering an integer invariant. Importantly, $d_{eff}$ also serves as an a priori structural diagnostic. Driving $d_{eff}$ of a well-posed problem to zero certifies that the physics and boundary constraints have absorbed the network's free directions. Building on this characterization, we introduce subspace projection strategies for boundary adaptation. Rather than retraining from scratch, we project parameter updates into the null space of the pre-trained physics operator so that new boundary conditions are satisfied without disturbing the learned physics. Gradient-based fine-tuning can match or exceed this but needs more wall-clock time and tuning, whereas subspace projection delivers near-equivalent quality in seconds to minutes. We validate on linear and nonlinear operators, demonstrating accurate adaptation to initial and boundary shifts and unencountered constraint types.
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Machine Learning

On the training of physics-informed neural operators for solving parametric partial differential equations

Physics-informed neural operators (PINOs) aim to learn solution operators for partial differential equations by using the governing physics as supervision, rather than relying solely on paired input-output simulation data. By incorporating physical constraints into the training objective, PINOs combine the cross-instance generalization of neural operators with the data efficiency of physics-informed learning. Despite this promise, how to train PINOs efficiently and robustly remains less well-understood than the training of either data-driven neural operators or physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). To bridge this gap, we examine key components of the PINO training pipeline, including architecture design, optimizer choice, loss balancing, and collocation-point sampling strategy. We study three representative operator backbones, Deep Operator Network (DeepONet), Fourier Neural Operator (FNO), and Continuous Vision Transformer (CViT), across five diverse parametric PDE systems. Our results show that CViT provides consistently strong and stable performance across the considered benchmarks. Beyond architecture, we find that several optimization pathologies previously identified in PINN training naturally arise in PINOs, including gradient conflicts and causal violation. We also find that mitigation algorithms developed for PINNs remain effective in the PINO setting. We further compare physics-informed and data-driven training under different data regimes, revealing that a carefully designed physics-informed training pipeline can match, and in some cases, outperform purely data-driven neural operators. Taken together, these findings provide a systematic empirical understanding of the optimization challenges in PINO training and inform a practical pipeline for efficient and robust physics-informed operator learning. Code and data are available at https://github.com/NanxiiChen/PI-CViT.
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All authors Nanxi Chen, Chuanjie Cui, Airong Chen, Sifan Wang, Rujin Ma

Machine Learning

Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data

Machine learning-based predictive emissions monitoring systems offer a practical alternative to direct emissions measurement, but their deployment across gas turbine fleets is challenging when emissions labels are available for only a small subset of assets. In this work, a trust-aware probabilistic framework is proposed for fleet-level gas turbine NOx prediction under limited labelled supervision. The framework combines a multi-head recurrent prediction model with learned confidence estimation, ensemble-based uncertainty quantification, auxiliary feature prediction, feature-space distance analysis, and operating-range diagnostics. These signals are calibrated on labelled data to produce interpretable per-sample trust scores, providing indicators of prediction reliability on unlabelled turbines, supporting the identification of predictions that should be treated with greater caution during fleet-level deployment. Confidence-based filtering reduces MAE from 0.202 at full coverage to 0.070 for the highest-confidence 10% of predictions, demonstrating that confidence estimates are meaningfully related to prediction error. Unlabelled and out-of-distribution samples exhibit increased uncertainty and reduced confidence, indicating that the framework responds appropriately to distributional shift. The results show that the proposed trust framework provides actionable reliability information for emissions prediction on unlabelled turbines, supporting more transparent and trustworthy deployment of PEMS across industrial fleets.
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All authors Rebecca Potts, Aiden Durrant, Rick Hackney, Georgios Leontidis

Machine Learning

Tight list replicability bounds via a novel sphere covering theorem

In recent years, list replicability has emerged as a framework for formalizing reproducibility in learning theory. A central question is how the required list size relates to the accuracy parameter and natural complexity measures of the hypothesis class. To achieve sharp bounds on list replicability, we prove a novel topological sphere covering theorem, derived from the Borsuk-Ulam theorem. Specifically, if the $d$-sphere is covered by open sets, each of which lies in an open hemisphere, then $d+1$ of these sets must have a common intersection. Using this result, we obtain a sharp bound on the relationship between list size and accuracy for VC classes. We also show that for large-margin half-spaces, provided the margin is not too large, the optimal list size equals the ambient dimension. However, when the margin is taken to be very large, we devise a replicable algorithm achieving the minimal list size of $\lceil d/2 \rceil + 1$.
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All authors Ari Blondal, Hamed Hatami, Pooya Hatami, Chavdar Lalov, Sivan Tretiak

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SE

TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation

TLA+ is a formal specification language for verifying distributed systems and safety-critical protocols. Large language models (LLMs) frequently produce TLA+ specifications that fail the TLC model checker for semantic reasons. Across 25 LLMs, the best public baseline is 26.6% syntactic parse and 8.6% semantic model-check. We present TLA-Prover, a 20-billion-parameter model for TLA+ specification synthesis. Training combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on verified examples with repair-based group-relative policy optimization (GRPO). In the GRPO stage, the model learns to fix its own rejected specifications. We also train a direct preference optimization (DPO) variant from the same SFT checkpoint as an ablation. TLC provides the reward signal directly, with no learned reward model. Four tiers grade each output: Bronze (parses), Silver (no warnings), Gold (passes TLC), and Diamond. To reach Diamond, the model's correctness property is automatically altered in a small way; TLC must then detect a violation. If TLC still passes, the property was always-true and contributes nothing; the output fails Diamond. TLA-Prover reaches 9/30 (i.e. pass@1 = 30%) at both Gold and Diamond on a held-out 30-problem benchmark. This is roughly 3.5x the 8.6% untuned baseline. The DPO variant reaches 20% at Diamond. Gold and Diamond coincide at every checkpoint; this prevents the trivial-property failure mode.
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All authors Eric Spencer, Arslan Bisharat, Brian Ortiz, Khushboo Bhadauria, Mujtaba Nazari, TaiNing Wang, George K. Thiruvathukal, Konstantin Laufer, Mohammed Abuhamad

Machine Learning

Adaptive state-action abstractions via rate-distortion

When learning to walk, infants seem to address a coarse version of the problem first - stay upright, reach the caregiver - and refine it only when further practice at that resolution stops paying off. Reinforcement learning offers multiple techniques for building simple versions of complex tasks, but lacks general principles for how to dynamically adjust the granularity of these abstractions during learning. This paper proposes one such principle: refine the abstraction as soon as the learning error within it becomes comparable to the error induced by the abstraction itself. Here, we investigate one way of formalising this principle via a performance certificate that decomposes value error into two terms: a learning error bound captured by a Bellman residual, and an abstraction error bound given by a bisimulation metric. The resulting switching strategy is implemented by soft state-action abstractions built from rate-distortion principles, whose resolution along state and action axes can be continuously adjusted. We validate this construction in a range of tabular settings, showing that near-optimal performance can be achieved under substantial lossy compression of state and action information.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.QM

$p$-adic Bi-Filtrations for Topological Machine Learning on Genomic Sequences

We introduce pVR, a topological machine learning framework for alignment-free genomic sequence classification that combines $p$-adic numbers with topological data analysis. Each DNA sequence is encoded along two complementary axes: a $p$-adic distance on $k$-mer prefixes, which captures hierarchical positional structure, and a compositional $L_1$ distance on $k$-mer frequencies, which captures local sequence content. The two distances jointly parameterise a bi-filtered Vietoris–Rips complex, and per-sequence topological summaries from this bi-filtration serve as features for standard machine learning classifiers. We establish theoretical guarantees for the construction: stability under metric perturbations and invariance to the choice of prime, alongside a result that explains why a single $p$-adic axis is topologically uninformative and why the bi-filtration recovers nontrivial homology. On twelve genomic benchmarks ($28$ to $500$ sequences, $3$ to $7$ classes), pVR outperforms four established alignment-free baselines on three of six low-sample datasets, with gains of up to $21$ percentage points; it underperforms only on a SARS-CoV-2 variant benchmark whose point-mutation divergence violates the hierarchical assumption, and all methods saturate in the large-sample regime. pVR also outperforms zero-shot frozen embeddings from the 500M-parameter Nucleotide Transformer v2 by $6.7$ to $11.4$ percentage points on three low-sample benchmarks. The pVR codebase is publicly available at https://github.com/MAHI-Group/pVR.
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