Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn
Papers
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Monday 25 May
Turbulence is ubiquitous in engineering and science, yet direct simulation is prohibitively expensive. The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations provide savings exceeding ten orders of magnitude but introduce unclosed terms (the closure problem). Offline-trained machine-learning (ML) closures suffer distribution shift in predictive simulations, while ML methods that bypass the governing equations struggle to generalise from scarce high-fidelity data. We develop a physics-derived deep learning closure model for RANS, the Deep Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (DARSM), which can be trained on small datasets and accurately generalise across Reynolds numbers, to unseen geometries, and to different flow regimes. A neural network maps flow invariants to empirical parameters in an implicit algebraic Reynolds stress equation, derived from the Reynolds stress transport equations under the weak-equilibrium assumption, imposing physics-based structure on the ML closure. End-to-end optimisation through the governing PDEs and the coupled implicit closure eliminates distribution shift, but both unrolled and implicit automatic differentiation fail on the stiff coupled solver. We derive adjoint equations that exploit the solver's implicit-explicit structure for efficient optimisation. On canonical square-duct and periodic-hill benchmarks, DARSM reduces average test velocity error over baseline RANS by $2$-$4\times$ across Reynolds number, geometries, and flow regimes, with peak case-level reductions of $12\times$. The model trained on attached, anisotropy-dominated flows (square duct) accurately generalises without retraining to separated flows (periodic hills), a regime change in the underlying physics. DARSM also outperforms five established ML methods: offline training, tensor-basis neural networks, field-inversion machine learning, DeepONets, and physics-informed neural networks.
Machine Learning
Balancing Plasticity and Stability with Fast and Slow Successor Features
A hallmark of intelligence is the ability to adapt in non-stationary environments, yet deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents often struggle in such settings. Prior studies introduce non-stationarity through abrupt shifts in features or dynamics, whereas real-world environments often evolve gradually through continual drift. This distinction has important implications for the "stability-plasticity dilemma" in RL, as abrupt task changes may demand more plasticity than naturalistic settings. To address this, we modify existing 3D Miniworld and MuJoCo environments to incorporate naturalistic, continual non-stationarity, and use them to examine how stability and adaptation affect performance under continuous environmental change. We find that methods favoring stability, such as synaptic consolidation, outperform approaches focused on plasticity, such as parameters resetting. Motivated by this result, and prior evidence that Successor Features (SFs) reduce interference, we investigate whether SFs are better consolidation targets than Q-values. Across both environments, applying neuro-inspired synaptic consolidation to SFs yields superior performance on continually changing settings. Moreover, consolidation is most effective when SFs are stabilized across multiple timescales, which capture complementary aspects of gradual environmental change. Together, these results suggest that stability is more critical in continual learning when changes are gradual, and that multi-timescale consolidation of predictive representations is an effective approach.
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Machine Learning
Energy-Gated Attention and Wavelet Positional Encoding: Complementary Inductive Biases for Transformer Attention
Standard transformer attention computes pairwise token similarity but treats all tokens as equally salient and all positions as equally local, regardless of the informational structure of the input. We identify two complementary inductive biases that standard attention lacks: energy salience (which tokens concentrate informational energy, learned end-to-end without explicit frequency decomposition) and scale-selective locality (how far positional influence extends at each frequency, implemented via Morlet wavelet encoding). We address both with two simple components. Energy-Gated Attention (EGA) gates value aggregation by a learned energy estimate of key token embeddings, computed via a single linear projection; it selects what to attend to. Morlet Positional Encoding (MoPE) replaces fixed sinusoidal encodings with learned Gaussian-windowed wavelets that adapt the joint position-frequency localization to the corpus; it specifies where attention operates at each scale. On TinyShakespeare, EGA alone achieves +0.092 validation loss improvement over standard attention (+0.103 over Phase 1-3 baseline); MoPE alone is -0.032 (below baseline as a standalone encoding); but their combination achieves +0.119 – more than the sum of parts. This superadditivity, observed across two independent training runs, is the central empirical finding: salience and locality are complementary inductive biases, each addressing a gap the other cannot fill alone. Ablations confirm that structured spectral priors (Morlet wavelet gates, scale-initialized heads, fixed sinusoidal PE) consistently underperform their unconstrained learned counterparts, while complementary learned components interact superadditively. All experiments are at small scale (<=6M parameters, character-level benchmarks, single seed); larger-scale multi-seed validation is the most important direction for future work.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Personalized Generative Models for Contextual Debiasing
Different visual patterns appear with different frequencies in the world: e.g., beach balls appear on sand more often than they do on a road. These statistics are reflected in vision datasets, and as a result trained models more easily recognize objects in common scenarios. However, recognizing a beach ball on a road may arguably be even more important than recognizing it on sand. We study how to mitigate this discrepancy. Since collecting uncommon images in the real world may be difficult, we explore whether generating images with less frequent contexts can serve as effective training augmentation. A key challenge is guiding generations to remain close to the original dataset distribution while creating diverse images with uncommon contexts. We introduce Decoupling Contextual Patterns with Generations (DecoupleGen), a method that personalizes text-to-image diffusion models to facilitate coherent synthesis of images with rare contexts while preserving original visual details. The generated images contain semantically meaningful content and remain visually aligned with the original datasets. We further apply verification constraints to ensure relevance of the augmented data. We evaluate our approach on object classification and recognition tasks on complex scene datasets. Our experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over previous approaches, and our analyses identify factors underlying these improvements.
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Machine Learning
When Correct Demonstrations Hurt: Rethinking the Role of Exemplars in In-Context Learning
In-context learning (ICL) is often motivated by the intuition that demonstrations help because they provide correct input-output examples. However, we reveal a counterintuitive phenomenon: correctness does not guarantee exemplar utility, and some correct demonstrations can even reduce ICL accuracy. To study this correctness-utility gap, we introduce task-preserving perturbations, where only the exemplar input is changed, while the example remains a correct instance of the same task. Concretely, each perturbed exemplar is assigned the target induced by the task mapping. This framework covers both label-updating perturbations, where task-relevant semantics change and targets are recomputed, and stricter target-preserving perturbations, where the original target remains valid. We formalize the resulting failure mode as contextual evidence shift: task-preserving perturbations can change the effective mixture of evidence used by the model for contextual inference, thereby separating exemplar correctness from exemplar utility. Across sentiment classification, logical reasoning, and math word problems, we find that task-preserving perturbed demonstrations can substantially degrade ICL performance, especially for smaller models, harder tasks, and higher perturbation ratios. Our results show that robust ICL requires evaluating not only whether demonstrations are correct, but also how they influence contextual inference. Code is available at https://github.com/Chenghao-Qiu/Task-Preserving-ICL.
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Machine Learning
MechRL: Reinforcement Learning Agents Perform Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretability
Mechanistic interpretability seeks to explain a model's behaviour by finding its circuit: the sparse subgraph of the model's computation that is causally responsible for it. Automated methods have made this search systematic, but each one starts afresh for every behaviour, and the effort spent finding one circuit does nothing for the next. Circuit discovery has thus been automated, but not amortised. We ask whether circuit discovery can itself be learned. We frame it as a sequential decision problem over the computation graph of GPT-2 small, in which a policy removes edges until it reaches a compact subgraph that preserves the behaviour, guided by a faithfulness reward defined through causal intervention. A single policy trained across twelve behaviours recovers a faithful circuit for each, and once frozen it transfers to behaviours it never saw during training, recovering their known circuits without further search. A short warm-start improves these transferred circuits, returning far smaller ones than training from scratch. While the learned policy does not match a per-behaviour search on circuit size or cost, it shows that circuit discovery is a learnable, transferable procedure rather than a search repeated for every behaviour.
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Machine Learning
A PAC-Bayesian View of Generalisation for Physics-Informed Machine Learning
Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) integrates mechanistic knowledge, typically through partial differential equations (PDEs), into data-driven models. Despite strong empirical performance, its statistical generalisation properties remain poorly understood, especially for regression with unbounded losses. We develop a PAC-Bayesian framework for PIML that provides high-probability generalisation guarantees under potentially unbounded losses. Exploiting the structure of physics-informed objectives, we derive component-wise bounds whose complexity scales with the input-gradient energy of each loss, establishing a direct link between physical regularity and generalisation. We further introduce a PAC-Bayesian calibration procedure that yields computable gradient-based complexities while controlling rare large-gradient events through a residual-tail correction. Adopting a multi-task view of data fidelity, PDE residuals, initial conditions, and boundary conditions, we obtain a refined certificate with a single PAC-Bayesian complexity penalty, avoiding the looseness of independently bounding each component. Building on this certificate, we propose a bound-aware learning procedure that promotes empirical accuracy, proximity to a physics-informed prior, and low input-gradient complexity. Experiments on six PDE benchmarks yield substantially tighter certificates than bounded-loss and sub-Gaussian alternatives, while ablations quantify the effects of posterior-training data, calibration data, gradient envelopes, and hypothesis localisation.
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Machine Learning
QAM-W: Joint 2D Codebook Quantization for LLM Weights via Hadamard Rotation and Activation-Aware Scaling
Scalar post-training quantizers discard pairwise coordinate structure within weight rows. We introduce QAM-W (Quadrature Amplitude Modulation for Weights), a codec that recovers this structure: each row is L2-normalized, block-Hadamard rotated, paired into 2D coordinates, and quantized against a single Lloyd-Max codebook trained on the unit circular Gaussian, with activation-aware per-channel scaling. In a cross-model study spanning five LLMs from four families (1.1B–13B parameters) and eight quantized configurations, the activation-aware variant at $\approx 5.5$ bpw stays within $\pm 0.4\%$ of BF16 WikiText-2 perplexity on every model, matching the SmoothQuant W8A8 quality envelope at $32\%$ fewer weight bits. Joint 2D coding outperforms polar (amplitude $\times$ phase) coding by 2–15~pp $\Delta$PPL at equal bitrate, and paired KL against BF16 tracks $\Delta$PPL% at Spearman $\rho = 0.99$ across 37 (method, model) rows, consistent with a monotone composite bound from codec distortion to KL divergence. A 3.5~bpw variant is competitive on quantization-tolerant architectures. At strict 4~bpw, the rotated-codebook frontier method QTIP outperforms QAM-W; the contribution is the quality-preserving 5–6~bpw band.
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Machine Learning
Reparametrizing Shampoo and SOAP for Subspace Basis Updates and BFloat16 Storage
Shampoo-based methods, such as KL-Shampoo and SOAP, have demonstrated strong performance in training neural networks and rely on QR decomposition. Because existing QR implementations require single-precision (FP32) arithmetic and remain computationally expensive, these methods become time- and memory-intensive when their preconditioning matrices are large. Moreover, using BFloat16 (BFP16) storage to reduce memory usage can degrade the performance of Shampoo-based methods. We propose a reparametrization of the preconditioner that supports BFP16 storage and forms a complete basis by combining updated basis vectors with unchanged ones. By updating only part of the basis through QR decomposition in a subspace, our approach reduces computational overhead while mitigating the performance degradation caused by BFP16 storage. Our approach applies broadly to Shampoo-based methods that employ QR decomposition, including KL-Shampoo, SOAP, and KL-SOAP. In particular, it improves the performance of SOAP and KL-SOAP under BFP16 storage, enabling KL-SOAP to match or exceed KL-Shampoo. Overall, our approach makes Shampoo-based methods more memory- and time-efficient.
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Machine Learning
Semigroup Consistency as a Diagnostic for Learned Physics Simulators
Learned physics simulators are often evaluated by one-step or short-horizon prediction error, but these metrics can miss failures in temporal composition and long-horizon rollout. For autonomous, state-complete systems, exact solution maps satisfy a semigroup law: direct evolution over $s+t$ should agree with evolution over $s$ followed by $t$. We propose normalized semigroup error as a post hoc, model-agnostic diagnostic comparing these direct and composed learned predictions. On one-dimensional heat and Burgers dynamics with time-conditioned ConvNet and FNO baselines, semigroup error is positively associated with rollout degradation, with trajectory-level Spearman correlation $\rho = 0.635$ and $95%$ CI $[0.621, 0.649]$. Semigroup regularization has mixed effects, supporting semigroup consistency primarily as an evaluation diagnostic rather than a universally beneficial training objective.
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Machine Learning
MULTISEISMO: A Multimodal Seismic Dataset and Model for Cross-Modal Seismic Understanding
The application of generalist multimodal models (GMMs) to specialized scientific domains remains limited due to the scarcity of comprehensive domain-specific datasets that integrate multiple data modalities beyond text and images. In seismology, understanding earthquake phenomena requires the synthesis of timeseries waveform data, geographical imagery, and contextual metadata, a multimodal integration absent in existing seismic datasets. We present MultiSeismo, a large scale structured multimodal seismic dataset, comprising over 16K seismic events spanning 13 years (2010 to 2023) across diverse geographical regions. Each event data integrates waveform recordings from global station networks, intensity maps, population exposure visualizations, and a comprehensive textual description within a standardized JSON format. We additionally develop MISCE, a multimodal instruction set on top of raw data to enable supervised training and evaluation of GMMs on seismic reasoning tasks ranging from basic information retrieval to complex cross modal analysis. We leverage MISCE to finetune an existing multimodal model (Unified IO 2) enhanced with a specialized timeseries encoder, which yields SeisModal, the first domain specific multimodal model for comprehensive seismic analysis. Evaluation of state of the art multimodal models on MultiSeismo reveals significant challenges, particularly with time-series data processing for general purpose models, while demonstrating SeisModal's superior performance on seismic multimodal reasoning tasks. These results prove that MultiSeismo provides a rigorous benchmark for future multimodal research in seismology and validate the success of our domain specific architectural adaptations.
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Machine Learning
Curriculum Learning for Safety Alignment
Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is a widely used approach for safety alignment that aims to reduce harmful behaviors in large language models. However, prior work shows that it can be brittle and exhibits poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In this paper we investigate whether Curriculum Learning can improve the robustness of DPO-based safety alignment. We propose Staged-Competence, a curriculum-based framework that organizes preference data by difficulty, employs competence-based sampling, and progressively updates the reference model during training. Averaged across three model families and three training seeds, Staged-Competence reduces OOD harmful response rates by 13.6 percentage points and attack success rates across five jailbreak attacks by 16.5 percentage points, while preserving general capabilities and maintaining near-zero over-refusal. We further show that Staged-Competence: (1) matches baseline safety performance with only 75% of the training data, demonstrating improved data efficiency and (2) yields better separation between safe and unsafe responses. Staged-Competence is agnostic to the underlying policy optimization loss and can extend to other DPO variants and alignment domains beyond safety. Additionally, we find multiple inconsistencies in standard RLHF datasets and create a cleaner combined version, named PiKacHHU. Our code is available at https://github.com/Sandeep5500/curriculum-learning-for-safety and the dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/etrigan5500/PiKacHHU.
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Machine Learning
Classification and detection of multiple UAVs using rational Gaussian wavelet neural networks
The detection of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is important for the protection of civilian and military infrastructure. In this paper we propose a cost effective UAV detection system using sound signals obtained from microphones. The recorded signals are passed through a signal processing pipeline which employs interpretable adaptive feature extractors using so-called rational Gaussian wavelets. These adaptive wavelet transformations are embedded into and trained together with an underlying small neural network which detects and classifies UAVs based on the obtained features. This leads to a physically interpretable machine learning algorithm that in addition to classifying UAVs is also capable of detecting UAV swarms. We demonstrate our results using data collected in indoor studio and noisy outdoor environments. We conclude that the proposed method outperforms traditional machine learning approaches for detecting and classifying single UAVs as well as drone swarms, while retaining a high degree of interpretability. Our implementation of the proposed methods is made publicly available for reproducibility.
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Machine Learning
Dynamic Link Prediction with Temporally Enhanced Signed Graph Neural Networks
Temporal signed networks (TSNs) model the time evolution of cooperative and adversarial relationships that arise in applications such as social media analysis, trust and reputation systems, and financial transaction networks. While graph neural networks (GNNs) perform well for static or unsigned link prediction, effective learning in temporal signed graphs remains challenging due to the interaction of signed relations, evolving structure, and balance-theoretic constraints. To address this gap, we propose a modular temporal enhancement framework for signed GNNs that integrates historical context into otherwise static architectures. The framework introduces a Historical Context Integration Module (HCIM) that combines learnable recency-aware temporal weighting, LSTM-based embedding trajectory modeling, and multi-head temporal attention to capture both short- and long-term signed interaction dynamics. Historical information is fused with current node representations using either global or node-adaptive weighting, allowing the architecture-agnostic framework to accommodate heterogeneous temporal behaviors. We instantiate the approach on the Self-Explainable Signed Graph Transformer (SE-SGformer), preserving interpretability while extending it with temporal awareness. Experiments on real-world and synthetic TSNs, including Bitcoin OTC, Bitcoin Alpha, Reddit, and small-world network models, demonstrate consistent and statistically significant improvements over the static baseline.
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Machine Learning
Stateful Inference for Low-Latency Multi-Agent Tool Calling
Multi-agent tool calling is becoming the dominant interaction pattern for LLM-based systems, yet existing inference frameworks treat each tool call as an independent request, re-processing the entire conversation from scratch even though 85-95% of the prompt is unchanged from the previous turn. We present a stateful inference architecture that converts the $O(n_t)$ per-turn cost of conventional serving into an $O(\Delta_t)$ delta-only cost: a persistent KV cache lives across turns and advances by ingesting only the new tokens, while a radix prefix cache extends this across interleaved multi-agent traffic and a prompt-lookup speculative decoder accelerates structured output. Against vLLM and SGLang on novel, fully-generated workloads, the reference implementation is $2.1\times$ faster per turn on a 6-turn agentic workflow and $4.2\times$ on the median turn of a 35-turn one, halving end-to-end wall time. The advantage comes from stateful reuse and speculation, not caching.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Beyond Differences: Doubly Robust Meta-Learners for Ratio-Based Treatment Effects
When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios – as in medicine, pricing, and marketing – the ratio-based CATE $\tau(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes $\tau(x)$ into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes to two propensity classification tasks. We further derive doubly robust augmentations for both S/T- and Q-style ratio learners and characterize their distinct robustness properties. In benchmarks on seven RCT datasets, the Q-Learner is the most consistently competitive method in low-conversion regimes, where its propensity-only construction sidesteps the imbalanced regression that hurts outcome-based estimators. On four observational datasets, where propensity must be estimated and confounding cannot be ruled out, the DR learners introduced here decisively come out on top, making them practitioners' natural default for confounded observational data.
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Machine Learning
Two-Parameter Flows for Learning Population Dynamics of Physical Systems
This work addresses the problem of learning the dynamics of high-dimensional probability densities over time using unlabeled samples, without assuming access to trajectory information. We introduce two-parameter flows that learn only sampling-time transports from a base distribution to each marginal and then extract a physics-time velocity by regressing on coupled synthetic trajectories. We prove that the resulting physics-time dynamics are unique and inherit regularity from the sampling-time transports. Because we can build on standard, well-developed conditional flow matching techniques for learning the base-to-marginal transports, our approach scales to high dimensions and avoids per-step optimal-transport couplings, while allowing admissible non-gradient dynamics that can naturally explain rotational or circulating physics phenomena.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Benchmarking Convolutional, Transformer, Hybrid, and Vision Language Models for Multi Disease Retinal Screening
Modern deep learning offers powerful tools for automated retinal screening, but it remains unclear how different visual model families compare in realistic multi-disease settings and under domain shift. In this work, we benchmark twelve architectures across four model families: convolutional neural networks, vision transformers, hybrid CNN-transformer backbones, and vision-language models, using the Retinal Fundus Multi-disease Image Dataset (RFMiD). We evaluate two tasks: binary screening for any retinal disease and multi-label classification across 28 disease classes. Using standardized training, calibration, and evaluation protocols, we report AUC, F1, precision, recall, and sensitivity at a clinically relevant operating point with specificity near 80%. On RFMiD, all architectures perform well on binary screening, with AUC above 84%, but attention-based models perform best. SwinTiny and the hybrid CoAtNet0 and MaxViTTiny models achieve the strongest binary screening results and improve macro and micro F1 in the multi-label setting. Vision-language models, including CLIP ViT-B/16 and SigLIP-Base384, are competitive with CNN baselines but do not surpass the best transformer and hybrid backbones. In external validation on Messidor-2 for referable diabetic retinopathy, AUC ranges from 66.8% to 84.7%, with hybrid and transformer models again showing strong performance. These results provide a reproducible reference for model selection in multi-disease retinal screening and guide future automated screening tools for clinical deployment.
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Machine Learning
Scaling World-Model Reinforcement Learning Through Diffusion Policy Optimization
Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) can be effectively supported at scale through the use of world models. However, in practice, scaling such approaches remains fundamentally limited. A commonly recognized challenge is model bias and error compounding, which degrade long-horizon predictions. Beyond these issues, we identify a more critical yet underexplored bottleneck: a structural misalignment between search and value learning in existing world model approaches. In particular, policy improvement often relies on value functions induced by a separate, non-search policy, resulting in training inconsistency and ultimately suboptimal learning. To address this limitation, we propose Model-Based Diffusion Policy Optimization (MBDPO) in world models, a framework that unifies search and policy optimization through diffusion policy representations, thereby unlocking the potential of world models for scalable policy learning. Instead of constructing an explicit planner over a learned world model, we reformulate policy optimization as a diffusion process over searched trajectories in latent world models. In this view, we extract an implicit energy function from the collected dataset that anchors the policy, enabling MBDPO to refine the score field for policy optimization while mitigating misalignment. We evaluate MBDPO across a wide range of settings, including multi-task offline pretraining, online learning, and offline-to-online fine-tuning. In the offline regime, we further investigate its scaling behavior by pretraining on large-scale datasets, observing consistent and monotonic performance gains with increasing model capacity.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Learning Nonlinear Factor Models with Unknown Monotone Links from Incomplete and Noisy Data
We study a nonlinear factor model in which observed responses depend on low-rank latent factors through an unknown monotone link function. This setting is challenging and largely underexplored due to severe nonconvexity and identifiability issues. The link function is assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), enabling flexible nonparametric modeling while preserving identifiability. We formulate the problem as the joint recovery of the low-rank factors, loadings, and the nonlinear link function from possibly incomplete and noisy observations and propose a projected block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm with explicit regularization to address scale and rotational ambiguities. Under mild incoherence of factors and standard sampling conditions, we establish convergence guarantees in both noiseless and noisy regimes, along with sublinear regret bounds for the link-function updates. Our results extend classical linear factor models to a broad nonlinear regime and provide a principled framework for learning nonlinear latent structures. We evaluate the proposed approach using controlled synthetic experiments, indicating promising performance.
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Machine Learning
Quantized Keys Steal Attention: Bias Correction for KV-Cache Compression in Video Diffusion
Chunk-wise autoregressive video diffusion models rely on a KV cache of previously generated chunks to avoid redundant computation, but this cache quickly becomes a memory bottleneck as videos grow longer. Methods that quantize the KV cache to low bitwidths reduce memory pressure but degrade video quality. We show that a key driver of this degradation is a systematic bias in attention weights: due to the convexity of the exponential in softmax attention, quantization noise inflates the contribution of cached keys, a phenomenon we call the Jensen bias. This effect causes quantized keys to steal attention mass from the unquantized current chunk. We derive a per-attention-score correction that removes this bias in expectation, computed on the fly from the quantization step sizes of the cached keys and the query norm. Using a second-order Taylor approximation, the additional computational overhead is negligible, and no additional memory is needed alongside the cache. Evaluated on MAGI-1, SkyReels-V2, and HY-WorldPlay at INT2 quantization, our correction recovers most of the quality lost to aggressive quantization, reaching near-BF16 video quality, and can outperform INT4 quantization while using 50% less memory.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV
Prospective evaluation of multimodal respiratory failure prediction: Do chest X-rays improve performance beyond EHR signals?
Early prediction of respiratory failure is critical for timely clinical intervention in intensive care units. Existing electronic health record (EHR)-based models can continuously monitor physiologic deterioration, but they may not fully capture pulmonary pathophysiology reflected in chest radiographs (CXRs). In this study, we ask whether CXR information improves prospective prediction of invasive mechanical ventilation beyond EHR signals alone. We develop a gated multimodal framework that integrates structured EHR time-series data with CXR foundation-model representations. The gating module adaptively controls the contribution of imaging features based on patient-specific clinical context, allowing the model to selectively rely on imaging information when it is informative. We prospectively evaluate the framework for predicting invasive mechanical ventilation within 24 hours in ICU patients and compare it with an established EHR-only model (Ventio), physician predictions obtained at matched clinical time points, and alternative multimodal variants. The gated multimodal models achieved higher discrimination than the EHR-only baseline, with AUROC values of 0.860 and 0.858 using REMEDIS and MedInsight CXR representations, respectively, compared with 0.752 for Ventio. Relative to physician predictions, the multimodal framework substantially improved sensitivity while maintaining favorable specificity. Compared with the EHR-only model, multimodal integration increased specificity and positive predictive value, suggesting that CXR information can refine risk estimation in selected patients. These findings support adaptive multimodal fusion as a practical strategy for incorporating imaging into prospective respiratory failure prediction.
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Machine Learning
Unified Neural Scaling Laws
We present a functional form (that we refer to as a Unified Neural Scaling Law (UNSL)) that accurately models and extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks as multiple dimensions all vary simultaneously (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as one simultaneously varies the number of model parameters, training dataset size, number of training steps, number of inference steps, amount of compute, and various hyperparameters) for various architectures and for each of various tasks within a varied set of upstream and downstream tasks. This set includes large-scale vision, language, math, and reinforcement learning. When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set.
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Machine Learning
The Bridge-Garden Dilemma in LLM Distillation: Why Mixing Hard and Soft Labels Works
Knowledge distillation (KD) transfers knowledge from a large teacher model to a smaller student. In language modeling, the student is trained either on tokens sampled from the teacher (hard labels) or the teacher's full next-token distribution (soft labels). Despite soft labels appear strictly richer, we find that mixing hard and soft labels consistently yields better results. Crucially, we show that this gain cannot be explained by closer teacher matching during training. Instead, it comes from reduced exposure bias, the mismatch between training and inference distributions. To explain this phenomenon, we introduce the Bridge-Garden Decomposition theory, which categorizes generation steps into two types: Bridges, where the next token must be exact, and Gardens, where it can be flexible. We show that hard-only KD excels in Bridges by avoiding risky deviations, while soft-only KD preserves diversity in Gardens. A hybrid strategy handles both cases and, as a result, reduces exposure bias across the sequence. Guided by this theory, we develop a family of Bridge-Garden hybrid supervision methods that adaptively balance hard and soft labels. Across a primary suite of seven teacher-student pairs (including Qwen, Llama, Gemma, and DeepSeek) and benchmarks in reasoning and coding, our approach outperforms divergence-based and on-policy KD baselines while reducing training cost by 9.7x, enabling efficient model compression. Code is available at https://github.com/ghwang-s/bridge_garden_hybrid_kd_release.
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Machine Learning
Provably Communication-Efficient and Privacy-Preserving Federated Graph Neural Networks
Graph neural networks (GNNs) achieve strong performance on relational data, but real-world graphs are often distributed across organizations that cannot share raw data due to privacy and policy constraints. Existing federated GNN methods either ignore cross-client links, leading to degraded accuracy, or require frequent embedding exchanges, incurring substantial communication and privacy costs. We propose CE-FedGNN, a communication-efficient and privacy-preserving federated GNN framework for learning over such coupled graphs. Our approach avoids sharing raw data or per-round embeddings by infrequently exchanging aggregated node representations. To handle cross-client dependency and staleness, we introduce a moving-average estimator that continuously tracks node representations and enables their stable reuse across rounds. To provide formal privacy guarantees for the released representations, we adopt the metric differential privacy (metric-DP) framework, which measures privacy with respect to distances in the learned embedding space rather than worst-case input perturbations. This yields meaningful guarantees at noise levels where standard differential privacy becomes overly conservative. We establish convergence to a stationary point at a rate of $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ with $O(T^{3/4})$ communication complexity. In addition, we derive $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-metric-DP guarantees via Rényi differential privacy composition under a public-cohort threat model. Experiments on synthetic interbank anti-money laundering benchmarks and citation networks demonstrate that CE-FedGNN achieves strong performance while significantly reducing communication and maintaining robustness under privacy-preserving noise.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.DG
Minimal surfaces, Knots, and Neural Networks
A recent conjecture by Joel Fine posits a relationship between the coefficients of the HOMFLY polynomial of a knot $K$ in the 3-sphere $S^3$, and the signed count of minimal surfaces in hyperbolic 4-space $\mathrm{H}^4$ meeting the sphere at infinity at $K$, with prescribed genus and self-intersection number. In this paper, we develop a novel machine learning framework based on Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to solve the minimal surface equation in hyperbolic space. We utilise this framework to test Fine's Conjecture by constructing near-minimal surfaces bounding various families of knots in $S^3$. Furthermore, we develop an algorithmic method to find self-intersections and compute their sign. For every knot analysed, the computationally discovered minimal surfaces and their self-intersection numbers perfectly align with the predictions of Fine's Conjecture, providing empirical evidence for it.
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Machine Learning
From Privacy to Generalization: Linear Max-Information Bounds for Differentially Private Learning Algorithms
Understanding the relationship between generalization and privacy remains a challenge in modern machine learning theory, particularly for deep networks that are trained by variants of differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP- SGD). In this work we make progress on this persistent open problem. First, we derive explicit upper bounds on the approximate max-information of any algorithm that fulfills $(\epsilon, \delta)$-differential privacy or Rényi differential privacy, thereby going beyond the classical results for pure $\epsilon$-differential privacy. Subsequently, we show even stronger guarantees for two common private learning algorithms, output perturbation with the Gaussian mechanism, and streaming DP-SGD, by exploiting the structure of their internal randomization. As an application of our results, we demonstrate how to obtain non-vacuous PAC-Bayes generalization bounds for deep networks, in which the prior distribution is learned by DP-SGD instead of the classical way of choosing it in a data-independent way.
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Machine Learning
On the Role of Inductive Bias in Time-Series Pretraining: A Case Study in Learning Generalizable Representations for Clinical Time Series
Clinical time-series learning is routinely constrained by small, heterogeneous cohorts and protocol drift, while its downstream use spans both classification (e.g., pathology diagnosis) and regression (e.g., temporal forecasting). These constraints make foundation-model pretraining appealing, but raises an important question of which inductive biases should the pretraining objective impose so that representations transfer across task types and subjects. We study this question in pathological gait analysis for spinal cord injury (SCI) via PathoFM, an encoder-centric transformer pretrained on multivariate gait windows with three complementary objectives: Local Completion (reconstruct contiguous masked spans to enforce local structure), Temporal Continuity (predict a masked mid-horizon continuation from an observed prefix to enforce smoothness and causal consistency), and Unsupervised In-Context Dynamics (support-query reconstruction conditioned on subject exemplar windows via attention). Empirically comparing objective families (grouping/contrastive, dynamics-based, and generative reconstruction), we find that dynamics-centric mixtures produce the most balanced transfer: grouping objectives favor discriminative margins but can degrade magnitude fidelity needed for continuous targets, whereas reconstruction-only objectives preserve waveform structure but may underperform on classification. Overall, combining local reconstruction with temporal continuity, and adding in-context conditioning when exemplar access is realistic, yields robust subject-generalizing representations.
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Machine Learning
Bridging Classification and Reconstruction: Cooperative Time Series Anomaly Detection
Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has long been a hot research topic in data mining due to its various applications. Recent studies challenge the effectiveness of popular deep learning methods for TSAD, suggesting their failure in detecting subtle and prolonged anomalies. Outlier Exposure (OE) and Masked Autoencoder (MAE) emerge as two promising paradigms (classification and reconstruction) for solving the above problems. However, OE-based methods are constrained by poor generalization, while MAE-based methods are limited by masking misalignment issues. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel framework, CoAD, which unifies the two paradigms to leverage their complementary strengths while mitigating their respective weaknesses. In this framework, the classification module generates probability-informed soft masks for the reconstruction module, which in turn alleviates the generalization problem of the classification module. This cooperative design enables CoAD to effectively detect subtle and complex anomalies that are often overlooked by existing methods. Additionally, the classification module is carefully designed to resolve issues related to improper classification granularity and the neglect of frequency information. Extensive experiments on high-quality benchmark datasets, conducted under rigorous evaluation protocols, demonstrate that CoAD significantly outperforms both state-of-the-art deep learning and traditional data mining methods, highlighting the potential of deep learning in TSAD. Moreover, CoAD is lightweight and substantially faster than existing SOTA methods, demonstrating its practical value for large-scale, real-time applications.
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Machine Learning
Co-folding model guided by structural proteomics
Protein structure generative models excel at predicting single protein static structures from sequence, but routinely fail to capture the correct conformational state of protein complexes, critical for protein design and induced proximity modalities such as antibodies and PROTACs. While structural proteomics techniques like Cross-Linking Mass Spectrometry (XL-MS) and Hydrogen-Deuterium Exchange (HDX-MS) offer valuable spatial and dynamic insights, integrating these sparse, heterogeneous measurements into these models remains an open challenge. Here, we bridge this gap by combining structural proteomics data with the rich biophysical priors learned by pretrained diffusion models. We introduce AIMS-Fold, an inference-time guided-diffusion framework that actively steers the generative sampling trajectory using differentiable physical potentials derived from XL-MS spatial restraints and HDX-MS solvent accessibility profiles. We demonstrate that these structural methods individually enhance predictive accuracy, and their integration yields synergistic improvement. Crucially, by leveraging these experimental restraints, AIMS-Fold achieves higher accuracy on challenging induced proximity targets than purely computational, unguided state-of-the-art models like Boltz-2. This establishes our framework as a powerful, integrative computational approach for the structure based drug design of induced proximity drugs. Evaluation code will be made publicly available upon publication.