Machine Learning
Papers
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Friday 22 May
Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is a critical task across a wide range of real-world applications, where abnormal behaviour is rare, labels are unavailable, and the cost of a miss is high. The central challenge is learning a characterisation of normality precise enough to flag deviations. Representation self-supervised learning, typically through contrastive approaches, addresses this by embedding temporal patches into a latent space where normality occupies a well-defined region, with anomalies detected by geometric deviation. However, contrastive approaches shape this space indirectly through pair-sampling heuristics, providing no explicit control over the geometric structure on which distance-based scoring operates. That geometry is thus left to chance. We present VACE (Velocity-Aligned Channel Embeddings), a self-supervised anomaly detection method that represents normality as a locally smooth, directionally coherent trajectory in the embedding space. To this end, VACE trains a channel-aware encoder through a velocity-consistency objective, with no negatives and no synthetic anomalies, so that normal trajectories are locally smooth and aligned. At test time, a Mahalanobis positional score and a directional score computed against a bank of normal directions are combined multiplicatively, the directional score acting as a gate that amplifies the positional one where the local dynamics are atypical. Despite its simplicity, VACE achieves state-of-the-art performance on TSB-AD-M under rigorous evaluation, significantly outperforming more complex methods trained on substantially larger budgets.
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
B-GRTO: Bootstrapped Group Relative Tool Optimization for Referring Segmentation
Segmentation is a fundamental task in computer vision, underpinning pixel-level scene understanding and serving as a cornerstone for applications ranging from autonomous perception to medical image analysis. For complex referring segmentation, recent methods pair large vision-language models with segmentation decoders: the former analyzes the image and prompt, while the latter predicts the target mask. Although reinforcement learning improves reasoning-intensive vision-language systems, trainable tools such as segmentation decoders are typically optimized separately with differentiable objectives, and the principled integration of such objectives into reinforcement learning remains underexplored. Thus, we introduce group relative tool optimization (GRTO), a mathematically grounded framework for jointly optimizing a policy with differentiable tool use. GRTO reuses group relative policy optimization (GRPO) rollouts to optimize the auxiliary tool objective, letting decoder gradients complement policy rewards. Further, we derive Bootstrapped-GRTO (B-GRTO), a pre-training method that cheaply bootstraps the tool, leading to faster convergence and superior performance. Across three challenging referring segmentation settings, B-GRTO results in substantial improvements over plain GRPO, matching or surpassing domain-specific state-of-the-art methods. This demonstrates the value of unifying reinforcement learning with differentiable auxiliary objectives for reasoning-intensive segmentation.
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Machine Learning
CoSPlay: Cooperative Self-Play at Test-Time with Self-Generated Code and Unit Test
Recently, Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) and Test-Time Scaling (TTS) have advanced LLM code generation through executable verification. Yet Ground-Truth Unit Tests (GT UTs) remain a bottleneck: SOTA RLVR methods require them for costly training, while existing TTS methods lose competitiveness without them. This motivates GT-free TTS, where existing methods directly use self-generated UTs to refine and select code candidates. Yet such UTs are often noisy or spuriously coupled with wrong code, and UT quality in turn cannot be validated without reliable code. The key challenge is therefore to jointly improve both. To this end, we present CoSPlay, a GT-free, training-free framework that jointly improves codes and UTs through cooperative self-play. It first explores diverse solution ideas and identifies their potential failure modes to produce discriminative UT ideas. It then uses bidirectional pass-count signals from the Code-UT execution matrix to iteratively prune or fix weak codes and refresh or replace unreliable UTs, letting the two pools co-evolve. Finally, when multiple codes remain tied at the highest pass count, it picks the final code from the largest output-consensus cluster, since correct codes agree on the same inputs while wrong codes diverge. Experiments on four challenging benchmarks show that CoSPlay on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct improves average BoN from 22.1% to 33.2% and UT accuracy from 14.6% to 78.3%, matching or surpassing the RLVR model CURE-7B. When applied to CURE-7B, it further improves BoN by 5.7%. CoSPlay also generalizes across diverse backbones and outperforms GT-free TTS baselines under comparable token budgets, with continued gains as the budget scales up. These results suggest a scalable inference strategy for competitive code generation without any GT data.
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Machine Learning
Non-normal spectral signatures of instability in neural network training dynamics
Training instabilities in deep networks - loss spikes, oscillatory convergence, and gradient pathologies - are empirically prevalent but lack a rigorous operator-theoretic explanation. We show that the linearized update operators for practically used optimizers are generically non-normal: for Adam, non-normality is controlled by the commutator [H, M] between the Hessian and the diagonal adaptive preconditioner, while for SGD with momentum it arises from the augmented state-space structure of the update map. Applying non-normal stability theory to these operators, we derive a conservative pseudospectral precursor bound in which \kappa(V) serves as an early-warning indicator of transient amplification even when the spectral radius remains below one, and we establish that exceptional points of the update operator appear as the \kappa(V) -> \infty limiting case of this framework. Numerical experiments on two-layer networks confirm that the spectral radius \rho(J) provides no separation between stable and unstable training phases while \kappa(V) separates them by approximately one order of magnitude, complementing the classical sharpness criterion with a continuous severity measure of non-normal amplification. These results establish non-Hermitian operator theory as a useful and underexplored framework for neural network optimization stability, offering a diagnostic language and proof-of-concept benchmark for understanding adaptive optimization stability.
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Machine Learning
Automated Random Embedding for Practical Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Effective Dimension
Bayesian optimization is widely employed for optimizing complex black-box functions but struggles with the curse of dimensionality. Random embedding, as a dimension reduction strategy, simplifies tasks that possess the effective dimension by optimizing within a low-dimensional subspace. However, determining the effective dimension of a task in advance remains a significant challenge, which influences the selection of the subspace dimensionality and the optimization performance. Traditional methods use fixed subspace dimensions provided by experts or rely on trial and error to estimate subspace dimensions with resources consumed. To this end, this paper proposes an automated random embedding for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization with unknown effective dimension, called Dynamic Shared Embedding Bayesian Optimization (DSEBO). DSEBO starts with a low dimension and switches to a higher subspace if the solutions in the current subspace show preliminary convergence. DSEBO dynamically determines the dimension of the next subspace based on the quality of the solutions in different subspaces and shares the queried solutions with the new subspace for a better initialization. Theoretically, we derive a regret bound for DSEBO and demonstrate that DSEBO can better balance approximation and optimization errors. Extensive experiments on functions with dimensionality of varying magnitudes and real-world tasks with unknown effective dimensions reveal that, compared with state-of-the-art methods, alternating optimization across different subspaces results in significant improvements in high-dimensional optimization, both in terms of optimization regret and time.
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Machine Learning
CBANet: A Compact Attention-Based CNN-BiLSTM Network for Aggressive Driving Event Detection
Aggressive driving is a major cause of traffic accidents and poses a serious threat to road safety. Although deep learning methods have shown promising results in detecting risky driving behaviours from vehicle sensor data, their performance in real-world conditions is often limited by severe data imbalance, large variability between drivers, and the lack of physically interpretable vehicle dynamics representations. In this paper, we propose an enhanced deep learning framework for aggressive driving detection using multivariate vehicle dynamics signals. Instead of relying solely on raw measurements, the proposed approach constructs engineered dynamic features that capture steering, acceleration, and braking behaviour. To address the extreme rarity of aggressive events in naturalistic driving data, we introduce a stable training strategy that combines controlled SMOTE-based oversampling with a class-weighted loss formulation, and evaluates focal loss variants for imbalance handling. Furthermore, a safety-oriented decision strategy based on class-specific threshold calibration is adopted to better reflect the asymmetric risks of missed detections and false alarms in real-world applications. The proposed framework is evaluated on a newly collected naturalistic driving dataset. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method consistently outperforms standard deep learning baselines with significant improvements in minority-class recall and safety-critical F-score metrics while maintaining practical computational efficiency. Code: \url {https://github.com/halhamdan/CBANet}
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Machine Learning
Learning Individual Dynamics from Sparse Cross-Sectional Snapshots
Predicting how a dynamical unit evolves over time - how an individual ages, an epidemic spreads, or a physical system degrades - typically requires dense longitudinal tracking. When only extremely sparse or entirely cross-sectional data is available, inferring individualized, continuous-time trajectories is fundamentally ill-posed. Existing methods force a strict compromise: sequence models (e.g. latent ODEs) require dense longitudinal data, while cross-sectional methods (e.g. optimal transport, flow matching-based) map aggregate populations, losing individual dynamics. In this paper, we demonstrate that this dichotomy can be broken. We introduce CADENCE, a principled probabilistic framework that recovers continuous individual trajectories from isolated snapshots by anchoring latent dynamics to static, individual-level contexts. We provide novel identifiability guarantees for single-timepoint trajectory inference. By combining a score-based spatial encoder (bijective Probability Flow ODE) to eliminate diffeomorphic ambiguities with a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) router, we show that individual dynamical parameters and routing function are jointly identifiable. Across a suite of benchmarks spanning physical systems to real-world biological data, CADENCE, trained strictly on extremely sparse snapshots with context structure, matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art sequential models trained on dense, full-trajectory data.
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Machine Learning
S$^3$GNN: Efficient Global Mixing and Local Message Passing for Long-Range Graph Learning
Message-passing neural networks (MPNNs) often suffer from an information bottleneck when capturing long-range dependencies, leading to the oversquashing (OSQ) phenomenon. Alongside spatial connectivity enrichment (e.g., rewiring), recent studies have shown that spectral filtering can yield strong long-range learning outcomes, as spectral operators enable global information mixing that alleviates OSQ. These approaches achieve this either by stabilizing the Jacobian energies in deep propagation or by guaranteeing OSQ mitigation under strong theoretical assumptions. We revisit these conclusions and show that the associated Jacobian sensitivity lower bound is generally difficult to achieve in practice. We then propose S$^3$GNN, which mitigates OSQ without such restrictive assumptions by lightweightly reintroducing omitted components with substantially lower computational complexity, while standard stability constraints on feature transformations remain effective under our new dynamics. Extensive experiments across diverse domains (e.g., long-range benchmarks, KGQA, and mesh-based fluid dynamics) demonstrate that S$^3$GNN achieves up to an order-of-magnitude error reduction with up to 50% fewer parameters. Our code can be found in https://github.com/EEthanShi/S3-GNN.git.
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Machine Learning
Unextractable Protocol Models: Collaborative Training and Inference without Weight Materialization
We consider a decentralized setup in which the participants collaboratively train and serve a large neural network, and where each participant only processes a subset of the model. In this setup, we explore the possibility of unmaterializable weights, where a full weight set is never available to any one participant. We introduce Unextractable Protocol Models (UPMs): a training and inference framework that leverages the sharded model setup to ensure model shards (i.e., subsets) held by participants are incompatible at different time steps. UPMs periodically inject time-varying, random, invertible transforms at participant boundaries; preserving the overall network function yet rendering cross-time assemblies incoherent. On Qwen-2.5-0.5B and Llama-3.2-1B, 10,000 transforms leave FP32 perplexity unchanged ($\Delta$PPL $< 0.01$; Jensen-Shannon drift $< 4 \times 10^{-5}$), and we show how to control growth for lower precision datatypes. Applying a transform every 30s adds 3% latency, 0.1% bandwidth, and 10% GPU-memory overhead at inference, while training overhead falls to 1.6% time and $< 1$% memory. We consider several attacks, showing that the requirements of direct attacks are impractical and easy to defend against, and that gradient-based fine-tuning of stitched partitions consumes $\geq 60$% of the tokens required to train from scratch. By enabling models to be collaboratively trained yet not extracted, UPMs make it practical to embed programmatic incentive mechanisms in community-driven decentralized training.
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Machine Learning
Class-Dependent Hybrid Data Augmentation for Multiclass Migraine Classification under Severe Class Imbalance
We conducted a reproducibility-oriented re-evaluation of prior migraine classification studies, correcting for data leakage and metric bias. We then introduced (i) a clinically motivated aggregation of two hemiplegic subtypes following ICHD-3 {\S}1.2.3, (ii) a class-dependent hybrid augmentation strategy that assigns generation methods based on per-class sample size, and (iii) the concept of fidelity asymmetry, motivating proportionally constrained growth as an alternative to full class balance. Experiments were performed on a dataset of 400 patients across seven migraine subtypes under a two-stage protocol, including the six-class configuration described above. Models were evaluated using stratified 5-fold cross-validation with macro-averaged F1 as the primary metric. Correcting methodological flaws reduces previously inflated performance estimates, with the corrected macro-F1 baseline standing at 0.71. The proposed framework consistently outperformed individual augmenters in macro-F1 averaged across the eight evaluated classifiers (0.862 vs. 0.836 for Gaussian Copula, 0.815 for CTGAN, and 0.801 for the no-augmentation baseline), and achieved its peak result of 0.914 with FT-Transformer under proportional augmentation. The no-augmentation FT-Transformer baseline (0.896) shows that, at the per-classifier ceiling, clinically motivated class aggregation accounts for most of the absolute improvement; the framework's principal measurable contribution is the gain in average robustness across classifiers, highlighting the dominant role of problem formulation.
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Machine Learning
Commutator-Induced Uncertainty in VAEs
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) often struggle to represent non-commutative structure in learned latent spaces. Symmetry-aware VAEs commonly address this issue by enforcing commutativity through algebraic regularization, which is appropriate for commutative transformation groups but can suppress meaningful non-commutative structure when it is intrinsic to the data. We argue that non-commutativity should instead be explicitly diagnosed and reflected in reconstruction behavior. We introduce a Lie Group VAE framework that combines geometric and algebraic perspectives on uncertainty while separating discrete generative factors from continuous geometric transformations. In a first phase, the model is trained without structural constraints while algebraic non-commutativity is measured through finite Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff deviations and decoder order sensitivity is measured through reconstruction order-swap tests. These diagnostics reveal a scale mismatch between latent non-commutativity and reconstruction behavior under unconstrained training. In a second phase, we introduce a deformation-stability constraint with a data-driven calibration constant that aligns decoder sensitivity with algebraic non-commutativity. We evaluate the framework on dSprites, 3DShapes, 3DCars, and CelebA against generic and symmetry-aware baselines, including beta-VAE, CLG-VAE, and CFASL. Across synthetic benchmarks, the method improves reconstruction quality and yields decoder-level behavior more consistent with latent non-commutative structure. Qualitative analyses show clearer order-dependent latent compositions and more stable reconstructions. On CelebA, the model yields more faithful reconstructions and factor-specific latent traversals than CFASL, while also exhibiting meaningful order-dependent interactions between learned latent directions.
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Machine Learning
Weisfeiler-Leman Is Incomplete on Simple Spectrum Graphs, so Canonicalize Them
Graphs with a simple spectrum admit cubic-time isomorphism testing, yet we prove that for every natural number $k$, the $k$-Weisfeiler-Leman ($k$-WL) test cannot distinguish all non-isomorphic graphs with a simple spectrum. As the WL hierarchy upper-bounds the distinguishing power of widely-used Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), this incompleteness applies to all such GNNs, ruling out completeness for every $k$-WL-aligned GNN family. To close this gap, we introduce PRiSM (Partition, Refine, Solve, Match), the first provably complete canonicalization of simple-spectrum eigendecompositions. PRiSM obtains the completeness guarantee that prior canonicalizations provably lack, and resolves the open problem of achieving complete expressivity on simple-spectrum graphs. When composed with DeepSets or a Transformer, PRiSM achieves universal approximation on simple-spectrum graphs, justifying the use of canonicalized Laplacian positional encodings. Empirically, PRiSM performs comparably to or outperforms existing spectral canonicalizations on graph regression, classification, and expressivity
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Machine Learning
Onsager-Machlup Posterior Transport for Deep Gaussian Processes
Approximate inference over inducing variables is the central computational bottleneck of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Existing methods either fit an explicit density $q_\phi(\bU)$ by an ELBO (DSVI, IPVI, DDVI, DBVI) or sample by MCMC (SGHMC). We instead frame DGP inference as posterior transport: learn a deterministic sampler that maps a tractable reference measure to posterior-relevant inducing variables, regularised by a path prior derived from the Doob-bridged reference diffusion. Our realisation, OM-Path (formally FBVI-bridge-Path), uses Song's probability-flow ODE applied to DBVI's Doob-bridged forward SDE; the reference drift is closed-form from the bridge marginal coefficients (no score matching) and the path regulariser is the Onsager–Machlup action. At the finite-$\epsilon$ value used at training, the objective is the negative log unnormalised density of a tempered Doob-bridge path posterior, and Theorem 1 identifies it with the same posterior's small-noise MAP path via the Freidlin–Wentzell LDP. Two strict path-space ELBO variants on the same bridge backbone (FFJORD log-det; OM-regularised CNF) are derived as ablations. Under a matched-seed paired Wilcoxon test against DBVI on seven UCI regression benchmarks, OM-Path delivers statistically significant wins on the two largest datasets (power: $p\!=\!0.014$, NLL $\mathbf{0.012}$ matching the DSVI baseline of $0.017$; protein: $p\!=\!0.002$, RMSE $\mathbf{0.716}$ vs.\ $0.764$, NLL $\mathbf{1.086}$ vs.\ $1.149$), statistical ties on yacht / qsar, and concedes boston / energy / concrete to DBVI on small-$N$ noisy data. The strict-ELBO variants do not clear DBVI on any UCI metric: in this regime, reducing the variance of the path objective dominates exact-density tracking.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT
Sparse In-Network Learning via Shortest-Path Backpropagation and Finite-Rate Gating
In-network learning (INL) trains distributed neural modules by exchanging latent activations and backpropagated errors over a communication graph. This letter proposes Dijkstra-pruned INL (D-INL), which removes non-tree links by retaining a capacity-aware shortest-path tree rooted at the fusion node. To balance sparsity and predictive information, local routing (or aggregation) is modeled as a finite-rate stochastic gate with rate $R_g=I(Z; T)$. We derive a rate-distortion-generalization bound and validate the method on a reproducible distributed-classification experiment, where D-INL reduces training exchange by $70.4\%$ while preserving accuracy within the standard deviation of dense INL. Adding finite-rate regularization further reduces the estimated latent rate by $45.7\%$ relative to unregularized Dijkstra INL.
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Machine Learning
Hinge Regression Trees and HRT-Boost: Newton-Optimized Oblique Learning for Compact Tabular Models
Learning high-quality oblique decision trees remains a significant challenge due to the discrete and non-convex nature of split optimization. We present the Hinge Regression Tree (HRT) framework, which reframes each oblique split as a nonlinear least-squares problem over two linear predictors whose max/min envelope induces ReLU-like representation capacity. We show that the resulting node-level optimization can be interpreted as a damped Newton method, and we establish the monotonic decrease of the node objective for its backtracking line-search variant. We establish, theoretically, that HRT is a universal approximator with an explicit $O(\delta^2)$ approximation rate. Building upon this base learner, we propose HRT-Boost, a mathematically synergistic ensemble extension that couples node-level Newton updates with stage-wise functional gradient descent. We show that this ensemble construction admits a stage-wise empirical risk reduction guarantee under the squared loss. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that HRT is highly competitive with established single-tree baselines, and HRT-Boost compares favorably with strong ensemble baselines and often yields substantially more compact models. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Hongyi-Li-sz/HRT-Boost.
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Machine Learning
An Open-Source Training Dataset for Foundation Models for Black-box Optimization
Most black-box optimization methods require extensive hyperparameter tuning, often limiting their ability to generalize across different optimization domains. Foundation models for black-box optimization that learn optimization principles from a large collection of optimization trajectories offer a promising alternative, with the potential to outperform manually designed methods across diverse problem classes. However, prior work has either relied on non-public datasets or on purely synthetic data, limiting reproducibility and generalization to real-world problems. As a result, progress in this area has been constrained by the lack of large-scale, real-world, publicly available pre-training data. We introduce BBO-Pile, the first open-source dataset comprising over 500K optimization trajectories evaluated across 3095 different black-boxes for different optimizers, which represents by far the largest public dataset for this task. Using this dataset, we train a family of foundation models at multiple scales, ranging from 2M to 80M parameters and from 200M to 2B training tokens, and study their scaling behavior with respect to compute. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pre-training is a viable and effective approach to imitate black-box optimization methods, paving the way for future research in this direction.
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Machine Learning
Reflex: Reinforcement Learning with Reflection Symmetry Exploitation in State-Based Continuous Control
Reinforcement learning has long struggled with poor sample efficiency. One promising approach to mitigate this problem is leveraging group-invariant Markov Decision Processes ($G$-invariant MDPs). Existing works in this direction have primarily focused on image-based RL and rotational symmetry such as $\mathrm{SO(2)}$, leaving state-based RL and reflection symmetry largely underexplored. In this work, we focus on state-based continuous control tasks and exploit reflection symmetry by introducing Reflex, a paradigm that seamlessly integrates with both on-policy and off-policy RL algorithms. We formalize two types of reflection-axial reflection and bilateral reflection, and characterize their corresponding transformations. Building on a theoretical analysis of symmetry-preserving optimal value functions and policies, Reflex integrates reflection symmetry into policy learning through principled symmetry regularization mechanisms. We integrate Reflex with PPO and SAC, and evaluate it on a suite of OpenAI Gym and DeepMind Control benchmarks, demonstrating superior performance over standard baselines while improving sample efficiency. Our code is available at https://github.com/TonyStark042/Reflex.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
When Planning Fails Despite Correct Execution: On Epistemic Calibration for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems
LLM-based multi-agent systems can fail even when planned actions are executed correctly because agents may misjudge their knowledge when evaluating plan feasibility, a phenomenon we term epistemic miscalibration in planning. Unlike execution errors, epistemic miscalibration is latent during planning, as generated plans can remain self-consistent and executable without observable errors; the miscalibration is also dynamic, as new information can alter feasibility assessments, potentially obscuring past miscalibration signals and causing them to recur over time. To address this, we propose the Epistemic Planning Calibration Agentic Workflow (EPC-AW), which assesses whether plans remain supported under varying information conditions rather than directly verifying feasibility. EPC-AW employs Information-consistency-based Plan Selection, selecting plans whose evaluations are stable across agents, together with Consistency-guided Epistemic State Refinement to adapt calibration over time by leveraging past discrepancies to guide future planning. Experiments show that EPC-AW improves system-level success by an average of 9.75%.
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Machine Learning
Sample-wise Targeted Adversarial Attacks on Test-time Adaptation
Test-time adaptation (TTA) mitigates distribution shifts by adapting models to unlabeled test inputs, but also exposes them to adversarial manipulation. Existing class-wise targeted attacks remain suboptimal for stealthy exploitation in this setting: since TTA operates on batches, forcing a subset of samples toward a target label unintentionally pulls similar benign samples along, resulting in a conspicuously high frequency of the target label that is easy to detect. To capture a more realistic threat, we introduce a sample-wise targeted attack. Unlike prior approaches, the attacker aims to misclassify only inputs carrying an attacker-chosen trigger, while preserving a benign-like prediction distribution to evade detection. To achieve this, we propose a meta-learning-based attack with a novel priority-aware gradient alignment strategy that explicitly prioritizes attack success. The strategy formulates the gradient update as an ellipsoidal trust-region problem, mitigating gradient conflict between the attack and stealth objectives, while providing theoretical guarantees for effective optimization of the attack objective in the presence of gradient misalignment. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10-C, CIFAR-100-C, and ImageNet-C across TTA protocols demonstrate that our method achieves high targeted success rates while maintaining prediction behavior close to benign adaptation under multiple label-free stealth metrics, making it difficult to detect in unlabeled TTA deployment scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our attack shows strong robustness against existing defenses.
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Machine Learning
What Linear Probes Miss: Multi-View Probing for Weight-Space Learning
The explosive growth of open-source model repositories has created a Model Jungle, where checkpoints are frequently shared without adequate documentation or metadata. While weight-space learning offers a pathway to identify and analyze these models directly from their parameters, processing full-scale weights is computationally prohibitive. Probing-based methods have emerged as a lightweight alternative, extracting permutation-equivariant representations via learnable probe vectors. However, existing probing methods are limited by a single-view design: they capture first-order structures but fail to encode the rich, higher-order correlation patterns inherent in row-column interactions. To bridge this gap, we introduce MVProbe, a multi-perspective probing framework that synthesizes first-order signals with interaction-aware (Gram-based) views. Our approach is theoretically grounded; we analyze the scaling laws of different probing orders to derive a principled standardization and fusion strategy that ensures balanced contributions from all branches. On the Model Jungle benchmark, MVProbe consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art ProbeX across diverse architectures, including discriminative backbones (ResNet, SupViT, MAE, DINO) and large-scale generative LoRA adapters (Stable Diffusion LoRA).
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Machine Learning
Hybrid Quantum-Classical Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Meteorological Downscaling
Statistical downscaling is a crucial component of the weather modeling field, where high-resolution outputs must be reconstructed from coarse-resolution inputs with the full cost of dynamical refinement. In this work, we investigate a hybrid quantum-classical corrective diffusion model for probabilistic statistical downscaling of weather fields. The proposed model inserts variational quantum circuit layers into the most compressed bottleneck of the diffusion UNet while leaving the regression branch fully classical. This placement tests whether quantum circuits can act as compact nonlinear feature maps for latent-channel mixing. We evaluate intra-channel and cross-channel ansätze on 10m wind components. On the 2020 validation set, the hybrid models remain stable, preserve the large-scale spatial organization of the generated wind fields, and improve both MAE and CRPS relative to a classical corrective diffusion model in several configurations. Structural diagnostics further show that the hybrid variants preserve kinetic-energy spectra and windspeed distributions similar to its classical counterpart while producing controlled changes in tail behavior, extreme-windspeed localization, and joint wind field components structure. Backend studies on the 2020 validation set show negligible impact from simulated device noise at the tested circuit scale, whereas real-hardware deployment remains limited by qubit availability and execution fidelity. The 2021 out-of-distribution test shows that these in-distribution gains do not transfer uniformly under temporal shift, revealing a generalization gap that motivates future mitigation through stabilization and regularization. These results show that bottleneck-level quantum hybridization can make a nontrivial contribution to weather statistical downscaling, while also highlighting that circuit scale and hardware deployment remain key limiting factors.
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Machine Learning
Parametric Prior Mapping Framework for Non-stationary Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack flexibility, whereas deep generative models struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies without extensive data and computation. We introduce Parametric Prior Mapping (PPM), a framework that injects parametric structural priors into a generative modeling process. Specifically, PPM utilizes a parametric estimator to derive a dynamic, adaptive prior that guides the learning of a complex predictive distribution via a learnable mapping. This design allows the model to retain the efficiency of parametric methods while exploiting the expressive power of generative models. Trained with a hybrid objective, PPM yields precise forecasts with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Empirical results show that PPM outperforms existing baselines in handling non-stationary data, offering a superior trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/ljl8336/PPM.
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Machine Learning
Convex Compositional Reasoning Models
Compositional energy-based models can generalize to larger combinatorial reasoning problems by reusing a learned factor energy across many local constraints. In our paper, we show that a key bottleneck in compositional reasoning is not composition itself, but the non-convex geometry of the learned energy landscape. To solve this problem, we introduce Convex Compositional Energy Minimization (CCEM), a framework that parameterizes each factor with an input-convex neural network and optimizes the composed energy over a tight convex relaxation of the feasible set. Because convexity is preserved under summation, the global relaxed objective remains convex, enabling deterministic projected first-order optimization. CCEM is trained in two stages: factor-level contrastive learning to shape local energy basins, followed by end-to-end refinement through an unrolled projected solver. Our experiments show that our models trained on small subproblems or a single problem size transfer to larger instances without retraining.
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Machine Learning
Every Component Is a Lookup: One Linear Graph for Interaction, Composition and Attribution
Interpretability methods for transformers are typically built around separate questions: which components interact, how information routes to the output, and which input tokens contribute. Because these methods rely on different assumptions, their answers are difficult to relate. We argue that two architecturally motivated assumptions suffice to address all three questions: attention and MLPs share a key-value form, $\phi(S)\,U$, in which $\phi(S)$ selects over values $U$, and components read from an additive residual stream, the sum of component outputs. Holding these selections at their forward-pass values turns the model into a computational graph, of which component interactions, composition paths, and token attribution are different readouts. We develop Unpack, a backward attribution procedure over this graph, and validate each readout against the corresponding established test: interaction scores predict ablation effects across models from 160M to 6.9B parameters, recovered routes reproduce established circuits down to the key, query, or value branch the circuit specifies, and token attribution passes the same faithfulness test as dedicated attribution methods. The results suggest that these two assumptions suffice for the interpretability questions above. On a task with a known circuit, we find that contribution and causal effect can differ, and that the difference has a recognisable signature: components that matter for the task change their contribution when the task is removed from the input, while components that act like a bias term do not. Code is available at https://github.com/Fun-Cry/unpacklm.
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Machine Learning
Coupling-Robust Accuracy in Multiphysics Physics Informed Neural Networks via Kronecker-Preconditioned Optimization
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a mesh-free route to solving coupled multiphysics systems, but their accuracy degrades systematically as inter-equation coupling strengthens, and inverse-gradient-norm loss balancing alone does not reliably prevent this failure. This study explains why coupling degrades PINN training and identifies an optimizer structure that removes the dependence, replacing case-by-case tuning with a principled remedy. Through a neural tangent kernel analysis, we prove that the standard kernel's spectral radius grows as $\Omega(\gamma^2)$ with coupling strength $\gamma$, whereas block-diagonal Gauss-Newton (GN) preconditioning bounds it by the number of networks $S$, independent of $\gamma$; no diagonal preconditioner recovers this bound for any coupling type or loss weighting. We realize block-diagonal GN preconditioning through the Kronecker-preconditioned optimizer SOAP combined with inverse-gradient-norm loss balancing (SOAP+GradNorm) and evaluate it across 222 experiments on four benchmarks of increasing difficulty. Across all systems, SOAP+GradNorm is the only configuration whose degradation remains bounded in every regime tested: it preserves weak-coupling accuracy in linear problems and limits degradation to $2.3\times$ in the nonlinear Nernst-Planck-Poisson system, whereas Adam-based training leaves the $L_2$ error above the 0.1 failure threshold. The same effect applies to a six-residual, four-network, 2D electro-osmotic flow where the electric double layer is resolved down to a Debye length of $\varepsilon = 0.01$ on an $x$-invariant reference solution. These results recast coupling-induced accuracy loss as a problem of the preconditioner's structure rather than loss weighting and identify Kronecker preconditioning as a structural lever for training PINNs on strongly coupled, stiff multiphysics systems.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC
Selective Ambulance Dispatch Under Contextual Travel-Time Uncertainty
Ambulance response is time-critical in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), where dispatchers must balance timely arrivals with limited fleet capacity. Static territories and deterministic travel-time estimates are vulnerable to dynamic congestion, while always-dual dispatch adds redundancy but consumes fleet capacity. We propose IDEAL (Intelligent Dual dispatch of Emergency AmbuLances), a selective dual-dispatch framework that sends a second ambulance only when the optimistic gap between primary and secondary paths exceeds a threshold. IDEAL learns context-specific edge travel times from trip-level dispatch records, including unobserved routes, using a weakly supervised bilevel representation network. We train the nonsmooth model with mini-batch conservative gradients and prove an asymptotic convergence guarantee. IDEAL models uncertainty via Burg-divergence perturbations to a shared metric in the learned representation space, thereby inducing correlated changes in edge travel times and learning context-specific radii from historical underprediction errors. For real-time decisions, IDEAL casts optimistic-gap computation as a difference-of-convex program and derives an efficient oracle with complexity guarantees. In collaboration with the Hong Kong Fire Services Department, we evaluate IDEAL using historical OHCA records and real-time adaptive simulations. The results achieve a stronger response-time/resource trade-off relative to all region-based and Google-based baselines.
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Machine Learning
Curriculum reinforcement learning with measurable task representation learning
In curriculum reinforcement learning (CRL), an agent incrementally accumulates knowledge over a sequence of tasks (i.e., a curriculum), and the learning process is aimed at using the accumulated knowledge to finally solve a challenging target task. While early CRL works focus on sequencing candidate tasks, recent research explores automatic curriculum generation. Among the rich CRL literature, the interpolation-based CRL paradigm is a main body, which automatically generates intermediate tasks by interpolating between the initial task distribution and the target task distribution in task space with meaningful distance metrics (i.e., can measure the task similarity). However, in challenging navigation tasks, the non-Euclidean context (task) space invalidates this assumption. To achieve automatic curriculum generation in complex task, we propose a novel automatic curriculum generation approach based on measurable task representation learning. To better measure the similarity, we propose to transform the task space to a latent space. Through a variational autoencoder structure that encodes the reward and the state transitions, we achieve a latent task representation with a task similarity measurement property, and two close task embeddings correspond to two similar tasks in terms of rewards and state transitions. Based on the learned task representation, we further develop an automatic curriculum generation scheme, which can effectively generate new tasks more and more similar to the target task. We evaluate our method in a variety of challenging navigation tasks, and the experiment results indicate that the proposed approach surpasses state-of-the-art CRL approaches based on interpolation and generative adversarial networks.
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Machine Learning
Score-Based One-step MeanFlow Policy Optimization
Diffusion and flow matching have emerged as expressive policy classes in reinforcement learning, but their reliance on multi-step denoising imposes substantial computational overhead at inference time, which is particularly problematic in online RL. MeanFlow offers a promising alternative by learning an average velocity field that maps noise to data in a single network evaluation. However, MeanFlow typically requires samples from the target distribution to construct its target velocity field, which are unavailable in online RL. We propose Score-Based One-step MeanFlow Policy Optimization (SOM), an actor-critic algorithm that resolves this by constructing the target velocity field directly from the Q-function via score estimation and a probability flow ODE, thereby concentrating probability mass on high-value modes. In the fully online RL setting, SOM achieves state-of-the-art performance on locomotion tasks with a single generation step, while substantially reducing both training and inference time compared to prior diffusion- and flow-matching-based policies.
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Machine Learning
Instance-Optimal Estimation with Multiple LLM Judges on a Budget
Evaluating large language models increasingly relies on LLM-as-a-judge protocols, but such evaluations remain costly: different judges have different prices and reliabilities, and the difficulty of each prompt-response pair can vary substantially. This raises a basic allocation question: under a fixed budget, how should one distribute evaluation queries across heterogeneous judges and instances to obtain the most accurate score estimates? We formalize this question as *budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation*. Given $K$ prompt-response pairs, $J$ judges with known costs, and unknown query-judge variances, the goal is to estimate a bounded score vector while minimizing an $\ell_p$-error. Our first contribution is to analyze the inverse-variance weighted estimator (IVWE) and to derive the oracle allocation that minimizes its error rate. Since this allocation depends on the unknown variances, we then address the practical unknown-variance setting by proposing EST-IVWE, an adaptive algorithm that constructs and leverages *optimistically biased* variance estimates to stabilize the empirical allocation. We prove that EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget. Our second and central theoretical contribution is a matching *local* minimax lower bound, which establishes the instance-optimality of the proposed algorithms. A key technical insight is that Fano-type high-probability arguments are too coarse for this problem: their packing construction loses the local variance structure that governs the optimal allocation. We instead use an Assouad-type in-expectation argument, based on local perturbations, which preserves this structure and yields the sharp allocation-dependent lower bound. Finally, we numerically validate the superiority of our approach over naïve uniform allocation on synthetic and HelpSteer2 datasets.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Decoupling Spatio-Temporal Adapter for Fine-Grained Badminton Action Localization
Temporal Action Localization (TAL) has been extensively studied in generic video understanding, while fine-grained sports scenarios, such as professional badminton, remain underexplored due to their complex and subtle spatio-temporal dynamics. In this paper, we focus on fine-grained TAL in professional badminton videos and introduce a new benchmark dataset, Fine-Badminton, which consists of 31 matches with 29 fine-grained stroke categories, covering 2104 rallies and 27597 annotated actions. To effectively capture the intricate motion patterns in such scenarios, we propose a Decoupling Spatio-Temporal Adapter (DSTA), which enables efficient modeling of spatio-temporal features within a parameter-efficient framework. Specifically, DSTA decomposes motion representation into three parallel branches, capturing temporal dynamics as well as vertical and horizontal spatial variations. The design allows the model to better distinguish subtle differences among fine-grained actions. Extensive experiments on both the Fine-Badminton dataset and the ShuttleSet benchmark demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance while introducing only a marginal increase in computational and parameter cost. These results validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach for fine-grained temporal action localization.