Papers

A valid tool call is not necessarily a valid intervention. Tool-using language agents are guarded by schema validators, policy filters, provenance checks, state predictors, and self-verification, yet such safeguards do not certify that a state-changing action has an identifiable causal effect. In confounded workflows, the action that looks optimal in observational logs can reduce utility when executed. We introduce CIVeX, a causal intervention verifier that maps proposed actions to structural causal queries over a committed action-state graph, checks identifiability, and returns one of four auditable verdicts: EXECUTE, REJECT, EXPERIMENT, or ABSTAIN. Execution requires an assumption-scoped causal certificate carrying graph commitments, an identification argument, a one-sided lower confidence bound (LCB), provenance, and risk limits. On Causal-ToolBench (1,890 instances, 7 seeds), CIVeX yields zero observed false executions across moderate and adversarial confounding. Under adversarial confounding it reaches 84.9% accuracy and 81.1% of oracle utility (+2.23 vs +2.76) and is the only non-oracle method whose constrained utility under a zero-false-execution constraint exceeds the AlwaysAbstain floor. On IHDP and ZOZO Open Bandit (real production logs with uniform-random ground truth), CIVeX matches Oracle correct-execution within 0.1pp and cuts per-execute false-execution by >=50x over naive baselines. A chain-of-thought LLM verifier (Claude Opus, Sonnet) cuts false-execution by an order of magnitude over a terse baseline, yet under adversarial confounding Opus's utility falls to 74% of CIVeX's. Intervention identifiability, not action validity, is the missing primitive for reliable tool use.

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) performs well for high-resource languages with abundant paired audio-transcript data, but its accuracy degrades sharply for most languages due to limited publicly available aligned data. To this end, we introduce WorldSpeech, a 24 kHz multilingual speech corpus comprising 65k hours of aligned audio-transcript data across 76 languages, collected from diverse public sources including parliamentary proceedings, international broadcasts, and public-domain audiobooks. For 37 languages, WorldSpeech provides more than 200 hours of aligned speech, with 28 exceeding 500 hours and 24 surpassing 1k hours. Fine-tuning existing ASR models on WorldSpeech results in an average relative Word-Error-Rate reduction of 63.5% across 11 typologically diverse languages.

Looped language models repeat a set of transformer layers through depth, reducing memory costs and providing natural early-exit points at loop boundaries. However, looped models do not scale as favorably as standard transformers with unique layers. We compare standard and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) transformers, with and without looping, and find two main results. First, we find Looped-MoE models scale better than the standard baseline while dense looped models do not. We trace this to routing divergence between loops: in Looped-MoE models, different experts are activated on each pass through the same shared layers, recovering expressivity without additional parameters. Our second finding is that looped models have better compute-quality trade-offs with early exits than standard models. Because each loop ends with the same layers that produce the final output, loop boundaries are superior exit points, as confirmed by earlier output convergence at these points. In sum, we provide a clear direction for scaling looped models: a Looped-MoE model with early exits can not only beat standard transformers at scale, but also enable significant memory and inference savings with minimal degradation in quality.

Learned representations are often invariant to rotational transformations, leaving individual dimensions non-identifiable and interchangeable. We study how Matryoshka Representation Learning (MRL) induces a task-aligned privileged basis distinct from variance-based or regularizer-induced orderings. In the linear setting, we prove that full-prefix MRL recovers the ordered principal directions, and can be computed efficiently using shared statistics. Empirically, we demonstrate that MRL yields consistent per-dimension structure aligned with task signal, where coordinate magnitude reflects informativeness.

Mixture policies theoretically offer greater flexibility than unimodal policies in continuous action reinforcement learning, but the practical benefits of this complexity remain elusive. Mixture policies are notably absent from most state-of-the-art algorithms, raising a fundamental question: Is the added representational overhead useful? We show that increased flexibility can theoretically enhance solution quality and entropy robustness. Yet standard algorithms like SAC do not leverage these advantages. A core issue is the lack of a low-variance reparameterization trick for mixtures, a luxury Gaussian policies enjoy. We propose a marginalized reparameterization (MRP) estimator to address this, proving it offers lower variance than the standard likelihood-ratio (LR) approach. Our experiments across Gym MuJoCo, DeepMind Control Suite, and MetaWorld show that MRP mixture policies significantly outperform their LR ones, and reach parity (sometimes better) with Gaussian counterparts. In addition, we do find several cases where MRP mixture policies exhibit clear empirical advantages. In this paper, we provide a clearer understanding of the trade-offs involved, elevating MRP mixture policies from theoretical curiosity to a practical tool.

We introduce a predictive model that estimates the pre-training loss of large models from model size (N), batch size (B) and number of weight updates (K). This is the first loss prediction model that can handle changing batch size. The model outperforms Chinchilla's loss model, a model of the test loss using the batch size and number of tokens, in terms of projecting the loss at extrapolated compute budgets (up to 1000 folds). A natural use of the model is to find optimal N, B, K configurations under explicit and compound resource constraints like time, memory and compute. In our experiments, the model-selected configurations are close to ground-truth optimal. Our work advocates for loss prediction as a better alternative to heuristic-based laws, which are growing in complexity. The implementation is available on https://github.com/chuningxdy/Noisy-Quadratic-System.

Poker is an imperfect information game that has served as a long-standing benchmark for decision-making under uncertainty. To maximize utility beyond the Nash equilibrium, an agent can deviate from Nash-equilibrium policies to exploit suboptimal play. We introduce AlphaExploitem, which extends the competitive RL poker agent AlphaHoldem by using a hierarchical transformer encoder that enables reasoning over previously played hands and modifying the training procedure with the inclusion of a diverse pool of exploitable opponents to facilitate learning to exploit. We train and evaluate AlphaExploitem on two standard benchmarks for imperfect-information games. Empirically, AlphaExploitem successfully exploits weak play by both in- and out-of-distribution opponents, without losing performance against NE opponents.

Sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) is an effective method for improving the generalization of federated learning (FL) by steering local training toward flat minima. Under data heterogeneity, however, device-side SAM searches for locally flat basins that are incompatible with the flat region preferred by the global objective. We identify this structural failure mode as flatness incompatibility, which explains why improving local flatness alone may provide limited training and generalization improvement for the global model. We reveal that flatness incompatibility arises from data heterogeneity and the friendly adversary phenomenon, and is further amplified by local updates and partial device participation. To mitigate this issue, we propose Federated Learning with variance-suppressed sharpness-aware minimization (FedVSSAM), which constructs a variance-suppressed adjusted direction and uses it consistently in local flatness search, local descent, and global update. FedVSSAM anchors both perturbation and update directions to a more stable global direction, instead of correcting only an isolated local perturbation. We establish non-convex convergence guarantees of FedVSSAM and prove that the mean-square deviation between the adjusted direction and the global gradient is effectively controlled. Experiments demonstrate that FedVSSAM mitigates flatness incompatibility and outperforms the baselines across diverse FL settings.

Breast density is a key factor that influences mammography interpretation and is a major source of heterogeneity in multicenter datasets. Such heterogeneity poses challenges for collaborative machine learning across institutions, particularly in Federated Learning. This study aims to evaluate the impact of breast density-induced heterogeneity on FL for mammography image classification and to assess the robustness of common FL algorithms in realistic clinical settings. We conducted experiments under two scenarios: (1) a strongly heterogeneous setting where each participating site contributed exclusively low- or high-density cases, based on the BI-RADS density score, and (2) a population-based setting simulating breast density distributions in White and Asian populations. For the strongly heterogeneous setting, we evaluated two configurations: one with 2 clients, where the cases were grouped as BI-RADS A-B and C-D, and one with 4 clients, where each site contained cases of a single BI-RADS density. We compared three FL methods (FedAvg, FedProx, SCAFFOLD) against centralized training, local-only training, and naive aggregation approaches, including ensembling and weight averaging. Across both scenarios, FL achieved performance comparable to centralized training, while local models and naive aggregation approaches underperformed in the presence of strong heterogeneity. Notably, FedAvg achieved accuracy on par with or exceeding centralized training, demonstrating resilience to breast density-induced data imbalance without requiring specialized heterogeneity mitigation algorithms. These findings show that FL can address breast density-related heterogeneity, supporting its feasibility for real-world mammography workflows. The demonstrated robustness of FedAvg underscores the potential for broad clinical deployment of FL, enabling collaborative model development while maintaining data privacy.

Asynchronous DiLoCo systems may receive pseudo-gradients computed several outer rounds earlier, yet the standard Nesterov outer optimizer does not explicitly condition its update on per-update age. This can make the outer momentum buffer brittle under large controlled delays. We propose Cosine Gated Adam Decay (CGAD), a simple, drop-in, age-aware outer optimizer that scales each incoming pseudo-gradient by $\sigma(\tau) = \gamma(\tau) e^{-\alpha\tau}$ before it enters Adam's first- and second-moment buffers; the exponential models information decay and the cosine gate $\gamma(\tau)$ smoothly zeroes contributions past a chosen cutoff. CGAD reduces to plain Adam at $\tau=0$, adds two hyperparameters whose defaults transfer across scales, and extends to partial-sync schedulers via a per-fragment age-aware variant (PA-CGAD). For an idealized gated-adaptive update on smooth non convex objectives, we prove a non-asymptotic convergence bound whose staleness-bias term depends on $\alpha$ alone, rather than on the realized maximum delay $\tau_{\max}$; standard analyses of asynchronous momentum-SGD instead carry a $\tau_{\max}^2$ factor. Empirically, on Llama style language model pretraining at 25M, 1B, and 7B parameters, CGAD trains stably across the controlled delays we sweep. The cosine cutoff acts as scale insurance: the closest baseline, Adam Decay (CGAD without the cutoff), is competitive at 25M but its seed-to-seed $\sigma$ at $\tau=8$ grows 27x from 25M to 7B, pushing its single-shot risk (mean + $\sigma$) above the chance-level loss while CGAD's stays well below. The published Nesterov recipe is the least stable method on the full sweep.

Preliminary low-thrust spacecraft mission design is a global search problem characterized by a complex solution landscape, multiple objectives, and numerous local minima. During this phase, mission parameters are often not yet fully defined, requiring new solutions to be generated at a high cadence across varying parameter values. When combined with the indirect approach to optimal control, diffusion models can accelerate this search by learning distributions that represent high-quality initial costates. However, generating training data remains expensive, and opportunities exist to better exploit past data. We propose a transfer-learning framework that combines homotopy in a mission parameter with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate training data more efficiently. The approach reformulates a multiobjective optimization problem as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution in costate space. We compare three MCMC algorithms on a planar multi-revolution transfer in the circular restricted three-body problem, with homotopy in the system mass parameter. The results show that gradient-based MCMC variants achieve the best trade-off between sample quality and computational cost. For the test transfer, the proposed framework generates 40 % more feasible solutions and achieves a higher-quality Pareto front than a state-of-the-art indirect approach based on adjoint control transformations and gradient-based optimization. Finally, the MCMC-generated samples are used to fine-tune a diffusion model conditioned on the mass parameter, enabling it to learn a global representation of the underlying solution distribution and efficiently generate new solutions. These findings establish the transfer-learning framework as a practical method for efficiently solving indirect trajectory optimization problems with varying parameters.

Agents built on large language models (LLMs) rely on reliability techniques such as retry, majority voting, and self-consistency developed in parallel rather than within a common analytical framework. We observe that an LLM sampled at temperature $T$ is a discrete stochastic channel $p(y \mid x)$ in the sense of Shannon's coding theory, and use this identity as the entry point for such a framework. Each of these techniques is a special case of one of six classical reliability operators: diversity combining, hybrid retransmission, iterative generator-critic decoding, rateless sampling, structured redundant verification, and difficulty-adaptive routing. Within the framework we give two closed-form results, a noise-variance threshold above which uniform averaging beats quality-weighted averaging and a contractivity criterion for generator-critic refinement, and turn each into a design rule checkable before committing compute. We further introduce a cost-aware semantic-nearest-neighbor router whose single Lagrangian knob traverses the quality-cost frontier without retraining. Across six local and cloud channel configurations, no fixed model-technique-budget choice dominates. On a 300-item hard split of MMLU, GSM8K, and HumanEval, the router occupies the empirical Pareto frontier: at matched quality its normalized cost is $\approx$56% lower than the best fixed technique, and at matched cost it improves quality by $\approx$7% (26% over single-shot decoding). Judge-free grading of 6,900 outputs confirms that the judge tracks correctness at the item level and that the router's advantage over a fixed policy persists at most cost settings; with internal reasoning enabled, the gain of external refinement shrinks but remains significant for our incremental-redundancy operator. These results argue for consolidating reliability techniques into a single tunable layer informed by channel coding.

Personalized alignment aims to adapt large language models to heterogeneous user preferences, yet the precise theoretical conditions for its statistical efficiency have not been formally established. This paper characterizes the conditions under which personalized alignment achieves O(1) online regret and log(1/epsilon) offline sample complexity. We show that these optimal rates depend on a specific user-diversity condition: the population of user-specific heads must span the latent reward directions that can alter the optimal response. We prove that this condition is both necessary and sufficient. When it holds, simple greedy algorithms achieve benchmark efficiency; when it fails, every learner in a natural admissible class incurs at least logarithmic regret. Our results identify user diversity as the fundamental driver of personalized identifiability.

Transfer learning under limited data is a challenging setting, where models must adapt to new tasks with minimal supervision. Prior work has primarily focused on improving absolute accuracy in transfer learning. However, empirical evidence comparing quantum and classical models in realistic transfer learning settings remains limited, especially in low-data regimes. In this work, we systematically study the robustness of quantum models under reduced training data. We evaluate multiple quantum and classical architectures across diverse transfer tasks and retraining configurations, and quantify robustness using accuracy degradation and relative performance retention (RPR). Our results show that, although classical models often achieve higher peak performance, they exhibit significantly larger degradation when training data is limited. In contrast, quantum models maintain more stable performance across data regimes, indicating improved robustness and data efficiency. These findings provide empirical evidence that quantum models can offer improved robustness in low-resource transfer learning scenarios.

Selecting a coherent sequence or subset of elements is a fundamental problem in structured prediction, arising in tasks such as detection, trajectory forecasting, and representative subset selection. In many such settings, the target is inherently ambiguous: each input admits multiple valid outputs, while supervision provides only a single sampled instance. This induces a mismatch between the underlying multi-modal target distribution and the observed training signal. We propose Contextual Plackett-Luce (CPL), a structured probabilistic model for sequence selection that extends the classical Plackett-Luce model to a context-dependent setting following an Ising-style parameterization with unary and pairwise interaction terms. CPL can be viewed as a hybrid between fully autoregressive prediction and parallel sequence selection: autoregressive models effectively capture uncertainty but are computationally expensive on modern parallel hardware such as GPUs, while parallel methods are efficient but struggle to represent multi-modal dependencies. CPL combines the strengths of both by constructing the parameters of a probabilistic selection model in a fully parallel manner, followed by a lightweight autoregressive selection process in which each step applies incremental updates to contextual logits. This decoupling of parallel scoring and sequential selection enables efficient computation without sacrificing expressivity. We evaluate CPL on two structured selection tasks: multi-modal path prediction and representative subset selection. CPL achieves improved structural consistency and robustness under ambiguous supervision compared to strong parallel baselines.

Neural operators for time-dependent PDEs face a structural tension: spectral architectures (FNO and descendants) inherit exponential rollout-error growth from their one-step Lipschitz constant, while hierarchical U-Net operators trade resolution invariance for multi-scale detail. We introduce SpectraNet, an autoregressive neural operator that composes truncated spectral convolutions inside a U-Net hierarchy with a Residual-Target Spectral Block trained under a Semigroup-Consistency Loss. The residual-target parametrization replaces L^T stability blow-up with linear T*delta drift, and the spectral path's parameter count is Theta(L w^2 M^2), independent of grid N. Under a single unified protocol against 16 published neural-operator baselines on Navier-Stokes nu=1e-5 at 64x64, SpectraNet reaches test relative L2 = 0.0822 at 2.04M parameters – 2.33x fewer than canonical FNO at ~20% lower error – and wins five of six rows in a cross-PDE comparison against FNO (NS at nu in {1e-4, 1e-3}, PDEBench Shallow-Water 2D and Diffusion-Reaction, with the Active-Matter row going to FNO inside its seed spread). Trained from scratch at native 128^2 under the same protocol, SpectraNet improves to 0.0724 while FNO regresses to 0.3080. Free rollout stays bounded for T=100 where FNO diverges across all 200 test trajectories. On consumer CPU at B=1, SpectraNet runs sub-200ms while the full-attention Transformer that wins raw L2 pays ~60x latency; we do not claim to beat that Transformer on raw L2, only to dominate the lightweight (<=5M parameter, sub-200ms CPU) Pareto frontier. Source code: https://github.com/Enrikkk/spectranet

In recent years, bilevel optimization (BLO) has attracted significant attention for its broad applications in machine learning. However, most existing works on BLO remain confined to the single-task setting and rely on the lower-level strong convexity assumption, which significantly restricts their applicability to modern machine learning problems of growing complexity. In this paper, we make the first attempt to extend BLO to the multi-task setting under a relaxed lower-level general convexity (LLGC) assumption. To this end, we reformulate the multi-task bilevel learning (MTBL) problem with LLGC into an equality constrained multi-objective optimization (ECMO) problem. However, ECMO itself is a new problem that has not yet been studied in the literature. To address this gap, we first establish a new Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT)-based Pareto stationarity as the convergence criterion for ECMO algorithm design. Based on this foundation, we propose a weighted Chebyshev (WC)-penalty algorithm that achieves a finite-time convergence rate of $O(ST^{-\frac{1}{2})$ to KKT-based Pareto stationarity in both deterministic and stochastic settings, where $S$ denotes the number of objectives, and $T$ is the total iterations. Moreover, by varying the preference vector over the $S$-dimensional simplex, our WC-penalty method systematically explores the Pareto front. Finally, solutions to the ECMO problem translate directly into solutions for the original MTBL problem, thereby closing the loop between these two foundational optimization frameworks.

Audio deepfake detection systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes security applications, yet their fairness across demographic groups remains critically underexamined. Prior work measures gender disparity but does not investigate where it comes from or how to fix it systematically. We present the first diagnosis-first framework that identifies bias source before applying targeted mitigation, evaluated on two models, AASIST and Wav2Vec2+ResNet18, on ASVSpoof5. Our diagnosis shows that bias does not stem from imbalanced training data but from acoustic representation differences, gender leakage in learned features, and structural evaluation asymmetry. We test mitigation strategies across in-processing, post-processing and combined families, including novel methods introduced in this work. Adjusting the decision threshold separately per gender reduces unfairness by 54% to 75% at no cost to detection accuracy, and our new epoch-level fairness regularisation method outperforms existing per-batch approaches. Adversarial debiasing succeeds only when gender leakage is localised, and fails when it is diffuse, an outcome correctly predicted by our diagnosis before training. No single method fully closes the fairness gap, confirming that bias sources must be identified before fixes are applied and that fairer benchmark design is equally important

Industrial machines are actuated systems, yet most open time-series corpora record sensor outcomes alone; the few that do log commanded signals expose them in vendor-specific forms that differ from machine to machine, so commanded intent and measured response cannot be compared across embodiments. We introduce FactoryNet, a pretraining corpus for industrial time-series: 113M datapoints across 57k end-to-end task executions (15k real, 42k synthetic) on seven embodiments and four tasks, with 27 annotated anomaly types alongside healthy baselines and counterfactual pairs. Every signal in every source is mapped into a single control-theoretic schema, Setpoint, Effort, Feedback, Context (S-E-F-C), which expresses any actuated system in a common representational frame and makes commanded-versus-realized dynamics readable as explicit prediction residuals. Using the corpus, we find that a task-phase model trained on simulation, with no real phase labels, recovers roughly two thirds of the real-data ceiling on both robots, and that transfer holds within a robot family but rarely across manufacturers. Fault signatures behave differently: an uncalibrated simulator gives no detectable fault signal on either robot, and aligning the feature distributions does not repair it. What separation there is comes from Effort: motor current distinguishes faults where measured tool motion is close to chance, and calibrating the simulator to reproduce that one channel recovers a payload fault on the real robot. We read this as simulation capturing the stable structure of a task while fault behaviour stays diverse and fault-type specific. We release FactoryNet as a growing, multi-embodiment substrate for industrial foundation models.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly collaborate over peer-to-peer networks to improve their reliability. However, these same interactions can also introduce vulnerability to unreliable or Byzantine agents that can propagate incorrect information and degrade overall system performance. To address this, we propose Self-Anchored Consensus (SAC), a fully decentralized filter-and-refine protocol in which agents iteratively exchange responses, locally evaluate and filter unreliable messages, and refine their own outputs. We present $(F{+}1)$-robustness conditions on the communication graph that ensure honest agents preserve and propagate reliable information despite Byzantine influence. Experiments across diverse open- and closed-weight LLMs on mathematical and commonsense reasoning benchmarks show that SAC effectively suppresses Byzantine influence and consistently improves performance across diverse communication topologies, whereas prior methods degrade significantly under Byzantine attacks.

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse approximations. A prominent class of such methods - sub-network Laplace approximations, constructs surrogates by restricting attention to a small subset of parameters. Existing approaches in this family typically rely on diagonal, layer-wise, or other architectural heuristics for subset selection, which ignore cross-parameter interactions and lack formal optimality guarantees. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the sub-network Laplace paradigm. We prove that all sub-network Laplace methods systematically underestimate the predictive variance of the full Laplace posterior, and that this bias decreases monotonically as the retained sub-matrix expands. Leveraging this insight, we propose two principled, analytically grounded sub-network Hessian approximations: Gradient-Laplace selects parameters with the largest average squared gradients of the model output with respect to the parameters over a reference dataset; while Greedy-Laplace iteratively refines this selection by accounting for off-diagonal interactions in the precision matrix. We establish theoretical guarantees characterizing their optimality properties and show that Gradient-Laplace provably outperforms existing heuristic approaches. Extensive numerical studies across diverse settings indicate that these methods perform strongly relative to existing benchmarks.

Scene graphs (SGs) represent objects and their relationships as structured graphs, enabling applications in image generation, robotics, and 3D understanding. Recent work suggests that conditioning image generation on scene graphs improves compositional fidelity compared to text-only prompting. However, since users typically provide text rather than structured graphs, a key challenge is to generate scene graphs from natural language. Prior work on discrete diffusion has demonstrated success in generating generic graphs such as molecules and circuits, but fails to account for the hierarchical structure and strong dependencies between objects, edges, and relations in scene graphs. We address this limitation by introducing a dependency-aware, hierarchically constrained discrete diffusion model for scene graph generation. Our approach decouples structure and semantics across the forward and reverse processes, enabling the model to capture conditional dependencies. At inference time, we perform training-free conditioning to sample text-aligned scene graphs. We evaluate our method on standard SG benchmarks and demonstrate improvements over both continuous and discrete graph generation baselines across graph and layout metrics. When fed to downstream image generation, our approach yields improved compositional alignment compared to text-to-image models, particularly in multi-object scenarios.

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based price formation, heterogeneous input signals, and incomplete data availability caused by communication delays, publication lags, and measurement outages. This paper proposes a market-rule-informed neural forecasting framework that embeds imbalance price formation rules into the latent space of an expressive neural network. The proposed framework preserves raw signal information while exploiting transparent market-rule priors. We further analyze operational robustness by removing price-component information and characterize how forecasting performance scales with input length and forecasting horizon. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines, demonstrating that market-rule priors and expressive neural networks should be jointly used for accurate and computationally sustainable forecasting in industrial energy trading applications. The implementation is publicly available at https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/.

We introduce Nonlinear GENERIC-Embedded Neural Networks (N-GENNs), a deep learning framework for discovering evolution equations of systems governed by the nonlinear GENERIC formalism (General Equation for Non-Equilibrium Reversible-Irreversible Coupling). Such systems exhibit coupled conservative and dissipative dynamics, and can be described via the superposition of a Hamiltonian flow and a generalized gradient flow. In contrast to existing approaches, our formulation incorporates generalized gradient flows via convex dissipation potentials, enabling the identification of a broader class of thermodynamically consistent dynamics, including systems with non-quadratic dissipation potentials. Thermodynamic structure is strongly enforced by construction through suitable reparameterizations of both the reversible operator and the dissipation potential, ensuring exact compliance with the first and second laws of thermodynamics. We validate the proposed approach on three representative examples: a harmonic oscillator coupled to a heat bath, an idealized chemical motor, and a one-dimensional viscoplastic model of Perzyna type. These results demonstrate the method's ability to accurately infer thermodynamically consistent models from data for systems incorporating both conservative and nonlinear dissipative dynamics.

Deep continual learning requires models to adapt to new tasks without retraining from scratch. However, neural networks can lose their ability to adapt to new tasks after training on previous ones, a phenomenon known as loss of plasticity. There have been several explanations and diagnostics proposed for plasticity loss. Motivated by the philosophy that "all models are wrong, but some are useful", we ask: can existing diagnostics predict a neural network's plasticity? In this work, we take a practical view to interpret plasticity as trainability, i.e., a neural network's future optimization gain on a target task. We first take a theoretical approach, showing, by constructing a few counterexamples, that some widely adopted diagnostics of plasticity, including representation rank and neural tangent kernel rank, can fail to predict the loss of trainability in both regression and classification settings. We instead propose a novel metric, called optimization readiness, which combines gradient strength and gradient reliability. We prove that optimization readiness lower bounds one-step optimization gain under standard smoothness assumptions, providing a theoretical guarantee for its predictive power. Empirically, we show that across commonly used deep continual learning settings, such as Slowly-Changing Regression and Permuted MNIST, optimization readiness more reliably ranks checkpoints by trainability than prior diagnostics, even with substantially fewer samples.

Modeling ultra-long user sequences involves a difficult trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness. While current paradigms rely on either item-specific search or item-agnostic compression, we propose UxSID, a framework exploring a third path: semantic-group shared interest memory. By utilizing Semantic IDs (SIDs) and a dual-level attention strategy, UxSID captures target-aware preferences without the heavy cost of item-specific models. This end-to-end architecture balances computational parsimony with semantic awareness, achieving state-of-the-art performance and a 0.337% revenue lift in large-scale advertising A/B test.

Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis–GCM gap.

Zeroth-order (ZO) optimization has become increasingly popular and important in fine-tuning large language models (LLMs), especially on edge devices due to its ability to adjust the model to local data without the need for memory-intensive back-propagation. Recent works try to reduce ZO variance through low-dimensional subspace search, but subspace restriction alone leaves key optimization geometry under-exploited, motivating additional acceleration. In this work, we focus on the hidden layer training problem in which spectral optimizers like Muon outperform AdamW due to its ability to exploit weak spectral directions by orthogonalization. However, we have discovered that unlike in the first-order setting, full orthogonalization works poorly in the ZO setting since the gradient estimates are highly noisy and unreliable. To address this issue, we propose applying partial spectral orthogonalization to accelerate ZO optimization. To do so, we replace the iconic Newton-Schulz procedure in Muon with the faster, more concentrated power-iteration method so that it only amplifies dominant spectral directions. Furthermore, to improve the efficiency and generalization of the algorithm, we adopted a streaming variant of power-iteration that requires low variance in gradients, which was achieved through constraining our search inside a subspace obtained through the projection of momentum, echoing recent advances. Experiments on LLM fine-tuning show that our method can achieve from 1.5x to 4x the convergence speed of ZO-Muon, the current SOTA algorithm, across SuperGlue datasets in the OPT-13B model. Across different models, we also reach competitive final accuracies with less time in most cases compared with strong ZO baselines such as MeZO, LOZO and ZO-Muon. Code is available at https://github.com/MOFA-LAB/ZO-MOPI.git.

Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been concentrated either on classical recurrent networks or on monolithic foundation models that combine forecasting and explanation We develop a four stage hybrid framework that separates these concerns The first stage acquires hourly generation irradiance and surface weather records through public application programming interfaces The second stage trains three classical baselines autoregressive integrated moving average gradient boosted regression trees and a two layer long short term memory network and produces a strong point forecast together with a residual error series The third stage corrects the residual through a quantum inspired variational kernel built on a six qubit hardware efficient ansatz with three repeated entangling layers The fourth stage uses generative artificial intelligence strictly as an explainability layer that reads the measured benchmark numbers and produces a structured natural language interpretation Across three regions drawn from open public archives Iberian solar North Sea wind and a mixed Texas trace the proposed configuration stays within one percentage point of the strongest classical baseline on the in domain forecasting task and the quantum inspired kernel separates calm and stormy weather regimes with a Fisher discriminant ratio approximately fifteen fold higher than a tuned radial basis kernel

Energy-based models (EBMs) are flexible generative architectures inspired by statistical physics, but their learning and generative properties remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze a solvable EBM in the high-dimensional limit: the spherical Boltzmann machine (SBM). Combining tools from random matrix theory and dynamical mean-field theory, we: solve exact equations describing the training dynamics of the SBM; compute the Bayesian evidence, which acts as a partition function in parameter space and encodes global properties of the trained model; and uncover cascades of phase transitions that occur both during training and as a function of hyperparameters, related to successive alignment and condensation of the top modes of the coupling matrix to the data. We connect these transitions to sampling-time generative phenomena in a teacher-student scenario, including: sampling temperature tuning, double descent as a function of regularization strength, tempered posterior effects, and out-of-equilibrium effects during training that induce biases in the trained model. We provide numerical evidence demonstrating that all these phenomena appear in standard generative architectures, beyond the SBM.