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Monday 20 April

Machine Learning

Semantic Step Prediction: Multi-Step Latent Forecasting in LLM Reasoning Trajectories via Step Sampling

Semantic Tube Prediction (STP) leverages representation geometric to regularize LLM hidden-state trajectories toward locally linear geodesics during fine-tuning, thereby greatly improving data efficiency. The original STP recipe samples random token sub-spans, which is compatible with the base large language model (LLM) training architecture. Inspired by STP, we are interested to investigate whether the sampling position can further enhance the semantic structure of multi-step reasoning, and hence affect its geometric impact. We applied STP at consecutive semantic reasoning step boundaries and achieved 168x more accurate multi-step latent prediction than frozen baselines on ProcessBench (3,400 samples), compared to only 4x for the random-token STP. Probing the latent manifold with a learned non-linear predictor reveals that STP-shaped trajectories are smooth curves, not straight lines: a 3-layer MLP reduces prediction error by a further 3-12x over linear extrapolation on step-boundary models. Removing the language modeling loss yields trajectories that are 2x more MLP-predictable than the combined loss, revealing a tradeoff between generation quality and geometric purity. Our results identify sampling position as the critical variable in geometric regularization and establish multi-step latent prediction MSE as a new evaluation metric for this class of methods.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Using large language models for embodied planning introduces systematic safety risks

Large language models are increasingly used as planners for robotic systems, yet how safely they plan remains an open question. To evaluate safe planning systematically, we introduce DESPITE, a benchmark of 12,279 tasks spanning physical and normative dangers with fully deterministic validation. Across 23 models, even near-perfect planning ability does not ensure safety: the best-planning model fails to produce a valid plan on only 0.4% of tasks but produces dangerous plans on 28.3%. Among 18 open-source models from 3B to 671B parameters, planning ability improves substantially with scale (0.4-99.3%) while safety awareness remains relatively flat (38-57%). We identify a multiplicative relationship between these two capacities, showing that larger models complete more tasks safely primarily through improved planning, not through better danger avoidance. Three proprietary reasoning models reach notably higher safety awareness (71-81%), while non-reasoning proprietary models and open-source reasoning models remain below 57%. As planning ability approaches saturation for frontier models, improving safety awareness becomes a central challenge for deploying language-model planners in robotic systems.
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All authors Tao Zhang, Kaixian Qu, Zhibin Li, Jiajun Wu, Marco Hutter, Manling Li, Fan Shi

Machine Learning

Learning Invariant Modality Representation for Robust Multimodal Learning from a Causal Inference Perspective

Multimodal affective computing aims to predict humans' sentiment, emotion, intention, and opinion using language, acoustic, and visual modalities. However, current models often learn spurious correlations that harm generalization under distribution shifts or noisy modalities. To address this, we propose a causal modality-invariant representation (CmIR) learning framework for robust multimodal learning. At its core, we introduce a theoretically grounded disentanglement method that separates each modality into `causal invariant representation' and `environment-specific spurious representation' from a causal inference perspective. CmIR ensures that the learned invariant representations retain stable predictive relationships with labels across different environments while preserving sufficient information from the raw inputs via invariance constraint, mutual information constraint, and reconstruction constraint. Experiments across multiple multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that CmIR achieves state-of-the-art performance. CmIR particularly excels on out-of-distribution data and noisy data, confirming its robustness and generalizability.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Random Matrix Theory of Early-Stopped Gradient Flow: A Transient BBP Scenario

Empirical studies of trained models often report a transient regime in which signal is detectable in a finite gradient descent time window before overfitting dominates. We provide an analytically tractable random-matrix model that reproduces this phenomenon for gradient flow in a linear teacher–student setting. In this framework, learning occurs when an isolated eigenvalue separates from a noisy bulk, before eventually disappearing in the overfitting regime. The key ingredient is anisotropy in the input covariance, which induces fast and slow directions in the learning dynamics. In a two-block covariance model, we derive the full time-dependent bulk spectrum of the symmetrized weight matrix through a $2\times 2$ Dyson equation, and we obtain an explicit outlier condition for a rank-one teacher via a rank-two determinant formula. This yields a transient Baik-Ben Arous-Péché (BBP) transition: depending on signal strength and covariance anisotropy, the teacher spike may never emerge, emerge and persist, or emerge only during an intermediate time interval before being reabsorbed into the bulk. We map the corresponding phase diagrams and validate the theory against finite-size simulations. Our results provide a minimal solvable mechanism for early stopping as a transient spectral effect driven by anisotropy and noise.
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Machine Learning

AutoPPA: Automated Circuit PPA Optimization via Contrastive Code-based Rule Library Learning

Performance, power, and area (PPA) optimization is a fundamental task in RTL design, requiring a precise understanding of circuit functionality and the relationship between circuit structures and PPA metrics. Recent studies attempt to automate this process using LLMs, but neither feedback-based nor knowledge-based methods are efficient enough, as they either design without any prior knowledge or rely heavily on human-summarized optimization rules. In this paper, we propose AutoPPA, a fully automated PPA optimization framework. The key idea is to automatically generate optimization rules that enhance the search for optimal solutions. To do this, AutoPPA employs an Explore-Evaluate-Induce ($E^2I$) workflow that contrasts and abstracts rules from diverse generated code pairs rather than manually defined prior knowledge, yielding better optimization patterns. To make the abstracted rules more generalizable, AutoPPA employs an adaptive multi-step search framework that adopts the most effective rules for a given circuit. Experiments show that AutoPPA outperforms both the manual optimization and the state-of-the-art methods SymRTLO and RTLRewriter.
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All authors Chongxiao Li, Pengwei Jin, Di Huang, Guangrun Sun, Husheng Han, Jianan Mu, Xinyao Zheng, Jiaguo Zhu, Shuyi Xing, Hanjun Wei, Tianyun Ma, Shuyao Cheng, Rui Zhang, Ying Wang, Zidong Du, Qi Guo, Xing Hu

Machine Learning

ProtoCLIP: Prototype-Aligned Latent Refinement for Robust Zero-Shot Chest X-Ray Classification

Zero-shot vision-language models (VLMs) have shown promise for chest radiograph classification, but their performance is often limited by confounding label co-occurrence, long-tail class imbalance, and transfer instability under domain shift. We propose ProtoCLIP, a refinement strategy for CLIP-style VLMs that improves zero-shot discrimination through targeted data curation and distilled anchor alignment. Specifically, we construct pathology-focused training subsets with curated negative samples to reduce co-occurrence bias. We also introduce a representation-preserving distillation objective to stabilize adaptation while maintaining semantic structure and improving discrimination of clinically relevant co-occurring pathologies. Evaluated on an unseen dataset VinDr-CXR, ProtoCLIP improves AUC by 2-10 percentage points over a strong CLIP-based baseline across multiple findings. For pneumothorax specifically, ProtoCLIP achieves a state-of-the-art AUC of 0.94. These results demonstrate that anchor-guided refinement, coupled with curated supervision and controlled adaptation, can mitigate common zero-shot transfer failures in medical VLMs without requiring large-scale retraining.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.ST

Conformal Robust Set Estimation

We introduce a robust conformal prediction method based on the half-mass radius $\dP(x):=\inf\{r>0:P(B(x,r))>1/2\}$. Its empirical version is exactly the distance from a point to its $\mathbf{k}$-th nearest neighbour, with $\mathbf{k}=\lfloor n/2\rfloor+1$. The resulting conformal sets retain finite-sample marginal validity and asymptotically target the robust population central set $\Qba:=\{x\in\R^d:\dP(x)\le\beta_\alpha\}$. We prove consistency in symmetric-difference probability, derive non-asymptotic exponential bounds and obtain the rate $O((\log n/n)^{1/2})$ under a local mass condition. Under the same local regularity on the uncontaminated law, we also establish quantitative $O(\eta)$ stability, uniformly over arbitrary contaminations of sufficiently small mass $\eta$, prove Hausdorff convergence of the empirical central sets, and provide computable ball-based representations using only pairwise distances.
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Machine Learning

Scalable Physics-Informed Neural Differential Equations and Data-Driven Algorithms for HVAC Systems

We present a scalable, data-driven simulation framework for large-scale heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that couples physics-informed neural ordinary differential equations (PINODEs) with differential-algebraic equation (DAE) solvers. At the component level, we learn heat-exchanger dynamics using an implicit PINODE formulation that predicts conserved quantities (refrigerant mass $M_r$ and internal energy $E_\text{hx}$) as outputs, enabling physics-informed training via automatic differentiation of mass/energy balances. Stable long-horizon prediction is achieved through gradient-stabilized latent evolution with gated architectures and layer normalization. At the system level, we integrate learned components with DAE solvers (IDA and DASSL) that explicitly enforce junction constraints (pressure equilibrium and mass-flow consistency), and we use Bayesian optimization to tune solver parameters for accuracy–efficiency trade-offs. To reduce residual system-level bias, we introduce a lightweight corrector network trained on short trajectory segments. Across dual-compressor and scaled network studies, the proposed approach attains multi-fold speedups over high-fidelity simulation while keeping errors low (MAPE below a few percent) and scales to systems with up to 16 compressor-condenser pairs.
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All authors Hanfeng Zhai, Hongtao Qiao, Hassan Mansour, Christopher Laughman

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Spectral bandits for smooth graph functions

Smooth functions on graphs have wide applications in manifold and semi-supervised learning. In this paper, we study a bandit problem where the payoffs of arms are smooth on a graph. This framework is suitable for solving online learning problems that involve graphs, such as content-based recommendation. In this problem, each item we can recommend is a node and its expected rating is similar to its neighbors. The goal is to recommend items that have high expected ratings. We aim for the algorithms where the cumulative regret with respect to the optimal policy would not scale poorly with the number of nodes. In particular, we introduce the notion of an effective dimension, which is small in real-world graphs, and propose two algorithms for solving our problem that scale linearly and sublinearly in this dimension. Our experiments on real-world content recommendation problem show that a good estimator of user preferences for thousands of items can be learned from just tens of nodes evaluations.
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All authors Michal Valko, Rémi Munos, Branislav Kveton, Tomáš Kocák

Machine Learning

Knowing When to Quit: A Principled Framework for Dynamic Abstention in LLM Reasoning

LLMs utilizing chain-of-thought reasoning often waste substantial compute by producing long, incorrect responses. Abstention can mitigate this by withholding outputs unlikely to be correct. While most abstention methods decide to withhold outputs before or after generation, dynamic mid-generation abstention considers early termination of unpromising reasoning traces at each token position. Prior work has explored empirical variants of this idea, but principled guidance for the abstention rule remains lacking. We present a formal analysis of dynamic abstention for LLMs, modeling abstention as an explicit action within a regularized reinforcement learning framework. An abstention reward parameter controls the trade-off between compute and information. We show that abstaining when the value function falls below this reward strictly outperforms natural baselines under general conditions. We further derive a principled and efficient method to approximate the value function. Empirical results on mathematical reasoning and toxicity avoidance tasks support our theory and demonstrate improved selective accuracy over existing methods.
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All authors Hen Davidov, Nachshon Cohen, Oren Kalinsky, Yaron Fairstein, Guy Kushilevitz, Ram Yazdi, Patrick Rebeschini

Machine Learning

Balance-Guided Sparse Identification of Multiscale Nonlinear PDEs with Small-coefficient Terms

Data-driven discovery of governing equations has advanced significantly in recent years; however, existing methods often struggle in multiscale systems where dynamically significant terms may have small coefficients. Therefore, we propose Balance-Guided SINDy (BG-SINDy) inspired by the principle of dominant balance, which reformulates $\ell_0$-constrained sparse regression as a term-level $\ell_{2,0}$-regularized problem and solves it using a progressive pruning strategy. Terms are ranked according to their relative contributions to the governing equation balance rather than their absolute coefficient magnitudes. Based on this criterion, BG-SINDy alternates between least-squares regression and elimination of negligible terms, thereby preserving dynamically significant terms even when their coefficients are small. Numerical experiments on the Korteweg–de Vries equation with a small dispersion coefficient, a modified Burgers equation with vanishing hyperviscosity, a modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation with multiple small-coefficient terms, and a two-dimensional reaction–diffusion system demonstrate the validity of BG-SINDy in discovering small-coefficient terms. The proposed method thus provides an efficient approach for discovering governing equations that contain small-coefficient terms.
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All authors Zhenhua Dang, Lei Zhang, Long Wang, Guowei He

Machine Learning

Bridge-Centered Metapath Classification Using R-GCN-VGAE for Disaster-Resilient Maintenance Decisions

Daily infrastructure management in preparation for disasters is critical for urban resilience. When bridges remain resilient against disaster-induced external forces, access to hospitals, shops, and residences via metapaths can be sustained, maintaining essential urban functions. However, prioritizing bridge maintenance under limited budgets requires quantifying the multi-dimensional roles that bridges play in disaster scenarios – a challenge that existing single-indicator approaches fail to address. We focus on metapaths from national highways through bridges to buildings (hospitals, shops, residences), constructing a heterogeneous graph with road, bridge, and building layers. A Relation-centric Graph Convolutional Network Variational Autoencoder (R-GCN-VGAE) learns metapath-based feature representations, enabling classification of bridges into disaster-preparedness categories: Supply Chain (commercial logistics), Medical Access (emergency healthcare), and Residential Protection (preventing isolation). Using OSMnx and open data, we validate our methodology on three diverse cities in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan: Mito (697 bridges), Chikusei (258 bridges), and Moriya (148 bridges), totaling 1,103 bridges. The heterogeneous graph construction from open data enables redefining bridge roles for disaster scenarios, supporting maintenance budget decision-making. We contributed that (1) Open-data methodology for constructing urban heterogeneous graphs. (2) Redefinition of bridge roles for disaster scenarios via metapath-based classification. (3) Establishment of maintenance budget decision support methodology. (4) k-NN tuning strategy validated across diverse city scales. (5) Empirical demonstration of UMAP superiority over t-SNE/PCA for multi-role bridge visualization.
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Machine Learning

Randomly Initialized Networks Can Learn from Peer-to-Peer Consensus

In self-supervised learning, self-distilled methods have shown impressive performance, learning representations useful for downstream tasks and even displaying emergent properties. However, state-of-the-art methods usually rely on ensembles of complex mechanisms, with many design choices that are empirically motivated and not well understood. In this work, we explore the role of self-distillation within learning dynamics. Specifically, we isolate the effect of self-distillation by training a group of randomly initialized networks, removing all other common components such as projectors, predictors, and even pretext tasks. Our findings show that even this minimal setup can lead to learned representations with non-trivial improvements over a random baseline on downstream tasks. We also demonstrate how this effect varies with different hyperparameters and present a short analysis of what is being learned by the models under this setup.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Learning from Less: Measuring the Effectiveness of RLVR in Low Data and Compute Regimes

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) typically relies on large quantities of high-quality annotated data, or questions with well-defined ground truth answers in the case of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). While previous work has explored the benefits to model reasoning capabilities by scaling both data and compute used for RLVR, these results lack applicability in many real-world settings where annotated data and accessible compute may be scarce. In this work, we present a comprehensive empirical study of open-source Small Language Model (SLM) performance after RLVR in low data regimes. Across three novel datasets covering number counting problems, graph reasoning, and spatial reasoning, we characterize how model performance scales with dataset size, diversity, and complexity. We demonstrate that (1) procedural datasets allow for fine-grained evaluation and training dataset development with controllable properties (size, diversity, and complexity), (2) under RLVR, models trained on lower complexity tasks can generalize to higher complexity tasks, and (3) training on mixed complexity datasets is associated with the greatest benefits in low data regimes, providing up to 5x sample efficiency versus training on easy tasks. These findings inspire future work on the development of data scaling laws for RLVR and the use of procedural data generators to further understand effective data development for efficient LLM fine-tuning.
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All authors Justin Bauer, Thomas Walshe, Derek Pham, Harit Vishwakarma, Armin Parchami, Frederic Sala, Paroma Varma

Machine Learning

Forecasting Ionospheric Irregularities on GNSS Lines of Sight Using Dynamic Graphs with Ephemeris Conditioning

Most data-driven ionospheric models operate on gridded products, which do not preserve the time-varying sampling structure of satellite-based sensing. We instead model the ionosphere as a dynamic graph over ionospheric pierce points, with connectivity that evolves as satellite positions change. Because satellite trajectories are predictable, the graph topology over the forecast horizon can be constructed in advance. We exploit this property to condition forecasts on the future graph structure, which we term ephemeris conditioning. This enables prediction on lines of sight (LoS) that appear only in the forecast horizon. We evaluate our framework on Global Navigation Satellite System data from a co-located receiver pair in Singapore spanning 2023 to 2025. The task is forecasting irregularities defined by the Rate of TEC Index (ROTI) up to 2 hours ahead as per-node binary classification. The resulting model, IonoDGNN, achieves a Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.55 and an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.77. These correspond to improvements over persistence of 53% in BSS and 58% in PR-AUC, with larger gains at longer lead times. Ablations confirm that graph structure and ephemeris conditioning each contribute meaningfully. Under simulated coverage dropout, the model retains predictive skill on affected nodes through spatial message passing from observed neighbors. Compared to interpolation baselines, the proposed model achieves better recovery, especially at higher dropout levels. These results suggest that dynamic graph forecasting on evolving LoS is a viable alternative for ionospheric modeling. The project and the dataset are available at https://github.com/Mert-chan/IonoDGNN.
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Machine Learning

Label-Efficient Bilateral Attention for Parkinson's Disease Screening from Wrist-Worn IMU Signals

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic neurodegenerative disorder. It shows multiple motor symptoms such as tremor, bradykinesia, postural instability, and freezing of gait (FoG). PD is currently diagnosed clinically through physical examination by health-care professionals, which can be time-consuming and highly subjective. Wearable IMU sensors have become a promising gateway for PD detection. We propose a time-interleaving encoder that processes bilateral wrist-worn IMU signals from the public PADS dataset, which consists of three groups, PD (Parkinson's Disease), HC (Healthy Control), and DD (Differential Diagnosis), across a total of 469 subjects. The encoder reaches 93.2%/90.9% accuracy (0.963/0.960 AUROC) on HC-vs-PD and PD-vs-DD; the lower sensitivity on the differential (0.812 vs. 0.994) confirms that separating PD from look-alike disorders is the harder clinical problem. Self-supervised representation learning with a contrastive InfoNCE objective attains 91.6%/89.5% accuracy using only 20% of the labels, within 1.5 points of the full-label ceiling, so near-saturation accuracy is reachable with minimal annotation. For real-time edge deployment we reach 124.5 ms per window on a Raspberry Pi 4.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Tight Auditing of Differential Privacy in MST and AIM

State-of-the-art Differentially Private (DP) synthetic data generators such as MST and AIM are widely used, yet tightly auditing their privacy guarantees remains challenging. We introduce a Gaussian Differential Privacy (GDP)-based auditing framework that measures privacy via the full false-positive/false-negative tradeoff. Applied to MST and AIM under worst-case settings, our method provides the first tight audits in the strong-privacy regime. For $(\epsilon,\delta)=(1,10^{-2})$, we obtain $\mu_{emp}\approx0.43$ vs. implied $\mu=0.45$, showing a small theory-practice gap. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/sassoftware/dpmm.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Balanced Co-Clustering of Users and Items for Embedding Table Compression in Recommender Systems

Recommender systems have advanced markedly over the past decade by transforming each user/item into a dense embedding vector with deep learning models. At industrial scale, embedding tables constituted by such vectors of all users/items demand a vast amount of parameters and impose heavy compute and memory overhead during training and inference, hindering model deployment under resource constraints. Existing solutions towards embedding compression either suffer from severely compromised recommendation accuracy or incur considerable computational costs. To mitigate these issues, this paper presents BACO, a fast and effective framework for compressing embedding tables. Unlike traditional ID hashing, BACO is built on the idea of exploiting collaborative signals in user-item interactions for user and item groupings, such that similar users/items share the same embeddings in the codebook. Specifically, we formulate a balanced co-clustering objective that maximizes intra-cluster connectivity while enforcing cluster-volume balance, and unify canonical graph clustering techniques into the framework through rigorous theoretical analyses. To produce effective groupings while averting codebook collapse, BACO instantiates this framework with a principled weighting scheme for users and items, an efficient label propagation solver, as well as secondary user clusters. Our extensive experiments comparing BACO against full models and 18 baselines over benchmark datasets demonstrate that BACO cuts embedding parameters by over 75% with a drop of at most 1.85% in recall, while surpassing the strongest baselines by being up to 346X faster.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Overcoming Selection Bias in Statistical Studies With Amortized Bayesian Inference

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in epidemiological or survey settings, individuals with certain outcomes may be more likely to be included, resulting in biased prevalence estimates with potentially substantial downstream impact. Classical corrections, such as inverse-probability weighting or explicit likelihood-based models of the selection process, rely on tractable likelihoods, which limits their applicability in complex stochastic models with latent dynamics or high-dimensional structure. Simulation-based inference enables Bayesian analysis without tractable likelihoods but typically assumes missingness at random and thus fails when selection depends on unobserved outcomes or covariates. Here, we develop a bias-aware simulation-based inference framework that explicitly incorporates selection into neural posterior estimation. By embedding the selection mechanism directly into the generative simulator, the approach enables amortized Bayesian inference without requiring tractable likelihoods. This recasting of selection bias as part of the simulation process allows us to both obtain debiased estimates and explicitly test for the presence of bias. The framework integrates diagnostics to detect discrepancies between simulated and observed data and to assess posterior calibration. The method recovers well-calibrated posterior distributions across three statistical applications with diverse selection mechanisms, including settings in which likelihood-based approaches yield biased estimates. These results recast the correction of selection bias as a simulation problem and establish simulation-based inference as a practical and testable strategy for parameter estimation under selection bias.
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All authors Jonas Arruda, Sophie Chervet, Paula Staudt, Andreas Wieser, Michael Hoelscher, Isabelle Sermet-Gaudelus, Nadine Binder, Lulla Opatowski, Jan Hasenauer

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.OT

Predictive Modelling of Natural Medicinal Compounds for Alzheimer disease Using Machine Learning and Cheminformatics

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease that lacks specific treatment options. Natural drugs have displayed neuroprotective effects; however, their high-throughput discovery is challenging because of the expense of experimental testing.The study proposed a machine learning approach to identify the anti-dementia activity of natural compounds based on molecular descriptors obtained from cheminformatics. The study used a set of active and inactive compounds obtained from public databases like ChEMBL and PubChem. Various molecular descriptors, including molecular weight, lipophilicity (LogP), topological polar surface area (TPSA), and hydrogen bonding descriptors, were calculated with RDKit. Data preprocessing and feature selection were applied, followed by the development of several classification models (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machines, Logistic Regression) and their evaluation based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score and ROC-AUC. The outcome suggests that ensemble techniques, such as Random Forest, delivered the best predictive accuracy and ROC-AUC values. This study also highlights that critical physicochemical descriptors in particular lipophilicity, molecular weight and polarity are important in driving neuroprotective activity as identified by feature importance analysis. The integrated machine learning approach shows the potential of combining natural product research and machine learning in early drug discovery for dementia. They provide a means of rapidly exploring large datasets and selecting candidates for experimental confirmation, thus minimising costs and time in the development of drugs for neurodegenerative diseases.
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All authors Hafiza Syeda Yusra Tirmizi, Syed Ibad Hasnain, Muhammad Faris, Rabail Khowaja, Saad Abdullah

Machine Learning

Scale-free adaptive planning for deterministic dynamics & discounted rewards

We address the problem of planning in an environment with deterministic dynamics and stochastic rewards with discounted returns. The optimal value function is not known, nor are the rewards bounded. We propose Platypoos, a simple scale-free planning algorithm that adapts to the unknown scale and smoothness of the reward function. We provide a sample complexity analysis for Platypoos that improves upon prior work and holds simultaneously over a broad range of discount factors and reward scales, without the algorithm knowing them. We also establish a matching lower bound showing our analysis is optimal up to constants.
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All authors Peter L. Bartlett, Victor Gabillon, Jennifer Healey, Michal Valko

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Symmetry Guarantees Statistic Recovery in Variational Inference

Variational inference (VI) is a central tool in modern machine learning, used to approximate an intractable target density by optimising over a tractable family of distributions. As the variational family cannot typically represent the target exactly, guarantees on the quality of the resulting approximation are crucial for understanding which of its properties VI can faithfully capture. Recent work has identified instances in which symmetries of the target and the variational family enable the recovery of certain statistics, even under model misspecification. However, these guarantees are inherently problem-specific and offer little insight into the fundamental mechanism by which symmetry forces statistic recovery. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by developing a general theory of symmetry-induced statistic recovery in variational inference. First, we characterise when variational minimisers inherit the symmetries of the target and establish conditions under which these pin down identifiable statistics. Second, we unify existing results by showing that previously known statistic recovery guarantees in location-scale families arise as special cases of our theory. Third, we apply our framework to distributions on the sphere to obtain novel guarantees for directional statistics in von Mises-Fisher families. Together, these results provide a modular blueprint for deriving new recovery guarantees for VI in a broad range of symmetry settings.
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Machine Learning

CAARL: In-Context Learning for Interpretable Co-Evolving Time Series Forecasting

In this paper we investigate forecasting coevolving time series that feature intricate dependencies and nonstationary dynamics by using an LLM Large Language Models approach We propose a novel modeling approach named ContextAware ARLLM CAARL that provides an interpretable framework to decode the contextual dynamics influencing changes in coevolving series CAARL decomposes time series into autoregressive segments constructs a temporal dependency graph and serializes this graph into a narrative to allow processing by LLM This design yields a chainofthoughtlike reasoning path where intermediate steps capture contextual dynamics and guide forecasts in a transparent manner By linking prediction to explicit reasoning traces CAARL enhances interpretability while maintaining accuracy Experiments on realworld datasets validate its effectiveness positioning CAARL as a competitive and interpretable alternative to stateoftheart forecasting methods
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All authors Etienne Tajeuna, Patrick Asante Owusu, Armelle Brun, Shengrui Wang

Machine Learning

Dissipative Latent Residual Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Modeling and Identification of Electromechanical Systems

Accurate dynamical modeling is essential for simulation and control of embodied systems, yet first-principles models of electromechanical systems often fail to capture complex dissipative effects such as joint friction, stray losses, and structural damping. While residual-learning physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) can effectively augment imperfect first-principles models with data-driven components, the residual terms are typically implemented as unconstrained multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), which may inadvertently inject artificial energy into the system. To more faithfully model the dissipative dynamics, we propose DiLaR-PINN, a dissipative latent residual PINN designed to learn unmodeled dissipative effects in a physically consistent manner. Structurally, the residual network operates only on unmeasurable (latent) state components and is parameterized in a skew-dissipative form that guarantees non-increasing energy for any choice of network parameters. To enable stable and data-efficient training under partial measurability of the state, we further develop a recurrent rollout scheme with a curriculum-based sequence length extension strategy. We validate DiLaR-PINN on a real-world helicopter system and compare it against four baselines: a pure physical model (without a residual network), an unstructured residual MLP, a DiLaR variant with a soft dissipativity constraint, and a black-box LSTM. The results demonstrate that DiLaR-PINN more accurately captures dissipative effects and achieves superior long-horizon extrapolation performance.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Block-encodings as programming abstractions: The Eclipse Qrisp BlockEncoding Interface

Block-encoding is a foundational technique in modern quantum algorithms, enabling the implementation of non-unitary operations by embedding them into larger unitary matrices. While theoretically powerful and essential for advanced protocols like Quantum Singular Value Transformation (QSVT) and Quantum Signal Processing (QSP), the generation of compilable implementations of block-encodings poses a formidable challenge. This work presents the BlockEncoding interface within the Eclipse Qrisp framework, establishing block-encodings as a high-level programming abstraction accessible to a broad scientific audience. Serving as both a technical framework introduction and a hands-on tutorial, this paper explicitly details key underlying concepts abstracted away by the interface, such as block-encoding construction and qubitization, and their practical integration into methods like the Childs-Kothari-Somma (CKS) algorithm. We outline the interface's software architecture, encompassing constructors, core utilities, arithmetic composition, and algorithmic applications such as matrix inversion, polynomial filtering, and Hamiltonian simulation. Through code examples, we demonstrate how this interface simplifies both the practical realization of advanced quantum algorithms and their associated resource estimation.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.AS

Incremental learning for audio classification with Hebbian Deep Neural Networks

The ability of humans for lifelong learning is an inspiration for deep learning methods and in particular for continual learning. In this work, we apply Hebbian learning, a biologically inspired learning process, to sound classification. We propose a kernel plasticity approach that selectively modulates network kernels during incremental learning, acting on selected kernels to learn new information and on others to retain previous knowledge. Using the ESC-50 dataset, the proposed method achieves 76.3% overall accuracy over five incremental steps, outperforming a baseline without kernel plasticity (68.7%) and demonstrating significantly greater stability across tasks.
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All authors Riccardo Casciotti, Francesco De Santis, Alberto Antonietti, Annamaria Mesaros

Machine Learning

Universally Empowering Zeroth-Order Optimization via Adaptive Layer-wise Sampling

Zeroth-Order optimization presents a promising memory-efficient paradigm for fine-tuning Large Language Models by relying solely on forward passes. However, its practical adoption is severely constrained by slow wall-clock convergence and high estimation variance. In this work, we dissect the runtime characteristics of ZO algorithms and identify a critical system bottleneck where the generation of perturbations and parameter updates accounts for over 40% of the training latency. We argue that the standard uniform exploration strategy is fundamentally flawed as it fails to account for the heterogeneous sensitivity of layers in deep networks, resulting in computationally wasteful blind searches. To address this structural mismatch, we propose AdaLeZO, an Adaptive Layer-wise ZO optimization framework. By formulating the layer selection process as a non-stationary Multi-Armed Bandit problem, AdaLeZO dynamically allocates the limited perturbation budget to the most sensitive parameters. We further introduce an Inverse Probability Weighting mechanism based on sampling with replacement, which guarantees unbiased gradient estimation while effectively acting as a temporal denoiser to reduce variance. Extensive experiments on LLaMA and OPT models ranging from 6.7B to 30B parameters demonstrate that AdaLeZO achieves 1.7x to 3.0x wall-clock acceleration compared to state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, AdaLeZO functions as a universal plug-and-play module that seamlessly enhances the efficiency of existing ZO optimizers without incurring additional memory overhead.
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All authors Fei Wang, Li Shen, Liang Ding, Chao Xue, Ye Liu, Changxing Ding

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.AP

DeepRitzSplit: A Variational Neural Operator Framework for Gradient Flows with Application to Dendritic Growth

Phase-field models are widely used to simulate microstructure evolution but their numerical solution remains computationally demanding. Neural operator surrogates provide a promising alternative, yet existing approaches are data-driven, requiring large datasets and exhibiting limited robustness when extrapolating to unseen configurations. We introduce DeepRitzSplit, an unsupervised neural operator framework for gradient-flow systems based on a variational formulation of energy-stable splitting schemes. It learns the time evolution semigroup associated with a convex-concave free-energy decomposition by minimizing the underlying variational problem at each time step. It is designed to inherit the dissipative structure of the underlying gradient flow without requiring trajectory datasets. We further introduce a Reaction-Diffusion Neural Operator (RDNO) architecture motivated by splitting schemes, with separate reaction and diffusion components to improve training efficiency and interpretability. We assess the approach on the Allen-Cahn equation and apply it to a phase-field model of anisotropic dendritic growth during solidification. In the Allen-Cahn benchmark, DeepRitzSplit shows better generalization than the supervised baseline on the out-of-distribution configurations tested, using 180 training configurations. In dendritic growth, the method captures the overall phase morphology and dendrite tip velocity well, while the tip radius is more sensitive to the training strategy. Refinement based on the residual of the splitting scheme markedly improves this second-order morphological quantity. The trained operators retain good predictive capabilities on configurations substantially different from the training set. These results demonstrate the potential of variationally trained neural operators as physically informed surrogates for accelerated microstructure simulations.
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All authors Benoît Appolaire, Ludovick Gagnon, Chih-Kang Huang, Miha Založnik

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Domain-Specialized Object Detection via Model-Level Mixtures of Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models provide a structured approach to combining specialized neural networks and offer greater interpretability than conventional ensembles. While MoEs have been successfully applied to image classification and semantic segmentation, their use in object detection remains limited due to challenges in merging dense and structured predictions. In this work, we investigate model-level mixtures of object detectors and analyze their suitability for improving performance and interpretability in object detection. We propose an MoE architecture that combines YOLO-based detectors trained on semantically disjoint data subsets, with a learned gating network that dynamically weights expert contributions. We study different strategies for fusing detection outputs and for training the gating mechanism, including balancing losses to prevent expert collapse. Experiments on the BDD100K dataset demonstrate that the proposed MoE consistently outperforms standard ensemble approaches and provides insights into expert specialization across domains, highlighting model-level MoEs as a viable alternative to traditional ensembling for object detection. Our code is available at https://github.com/KASTEL-MobilityLab/mixtures-of-experts/.
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All authors Svetlana Pavlitska, Malte Stüven, Beyza Keskin, J. Marius Zöllner

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Style-Based Neural Architectures for Real-Time Weather Classification

In this paper, we present three neural network architectures designed for real-time classification of weather conditions (sunny, rain, snow, fog) from images. These models, inspired by recent advances in style transfer, aim to capture the stylistic elements present in images. One model, called "Multi-PatchGAN", is based on PatchGANs used in well-known architectures such as Pix2Pix and CycleGAN, but here adapted with multiple patch sizes for detection tasks. The second model, "Truncated ResNet50", is a simplified version of ResNet50 retaining only its first nine layers. This truncation, determined by an evolutionary algorithm, facilitates the extraction of high-frequency features essential for capturing subtle stylistic details. Finally, we propose "Truncated ResNet50 with Gram Matrix and Attention", which computes Gram matrices for each layer during training and automatically weights them via an attention mechanism, thus optimizing the extraction of the most relevant stylistic expressions for classification. These last two models outperform the state of the art and demonstrate remarkable generalization capability on several public databases. Although developed for weather detection, these architectures are also suitable for other appearance-based classification tasks, such as animal species recognition, texture classification, disease detection in medical imaging, or industrial defect identification.
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All authors Hamed Ouattara, Pascal Houssam Salmane, Pierre Duthon, Frédéric Bernardin, Omar Ait Aider