Papers

Real decisions are made under incomplete information. If we observe only some of the random variables we need, we can predict the others. The conditional marginals over the missing variables are the key ingredient for computing Bayes risk and Value of Information (VOI), the expected gain from acquiring one more observation before deciding. We present the Marformer, a Transformer trained to directly predict conditional marginals given any set of observed values. Like BERT, which is trained to predict missing words from context, the Marformer constructs a hidden-vector representation for each distribution $p(X_i)$ and iteratively refines it through attention to other distributions $p(X_j)$. Unlike generative approaches, the Marformer does not model the full joint distribution, requires no domain knowledge of the data-generating process, and makes all predictions in a single forward pass. We evaluate across three synthetic domains with missing data—Bayesian networks, discretized multivariate Gaussians, and structured annotation data. The Marformer can match or outperform classical missing-data methods, even when those methods are given the true model family and prior that generated the synthetic data. We also evaluate on a real annotation dataset, where the Marformer outperforms the evaluated baselines at the largest training size. In both cases, the Marformer is substantially faster than the evaluated generative baselines.

Agents are deployed in applications from trip planners and stock trading to IT incident triage. In most cases, LLM agents work autonomously with minimal rule-based safeguarding, leading to cost and safety issues from irreversible actions. Recent works resolve this either by using a safeguard agent to monitor behavior or evaluating logs post-hoc. The first adds cost and latency to every step; the second delivers its verdict after the run, when tokens are burned and damage is done. To overcome this, we propose OnTrack, a streaming monitoring mechanism that compares an agent's steps and dependencies against recorded successful runs to alert users or block the agent in about a millisecond per step. We study this problem in three regimes of decreasing access: full reference access (historical runs and tool schemas), intermediate access (only tool schemas), and no prior knowledge (only step logs as generated). Expectation of OnTrack's monitoring capabilities reduces as data access drops, ranging from plan violation detection to identifying loops, stalls, and repeated tool calls. Finally, we evaluate OnTrack using SWE-bench trajectories. Based on the first 8 steps, our method ranks failing trajectories below succeeding ones better than content similarity approaches (+0.057 AUROC). With an abort policy, we save about 18% of compute that would be burned on failing runs, where 83% of interrupted runs were actually heading to failure (5 out of 6 aborts were correct).

Koopman operator theory provides a linear framework for analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems and has become a major tool for data-driven modeling. A central challenge, however, is that finite-dimensional approximations computed by methods such as extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) require the dictionary to be specified a priori. Recent machine-learning approaches address this limitation by learning the dictionary from data, predominantly using artificial neural network (ANN) autoencoder architectures. Although kernel methods offer an alternative with greater interpretability and tractability for theoretical analysis, they have received little attention in this setting. We introduce extended dynamic mode decomposition with kernel-based dictionary learning (EDMD-kDL), a kernel-based method for learning finite-dimensional Koopman embeddings directly from data. The method combines ideas from collocation methods and bilevel optimization to simultaneously learn a kernel dictionary and the corresponding Koopman approximation. We evaluate EDMD-kDL against state-of-the-art ANN-based approaches on a range of numerical experiments, including global sea-surface-temperature forecasting and learning directly from video data. Across all tested settings, EDMD-kDL achieves performance comparable to or better than the ANN-based methods. Moreover, in contrast to standard kernel methods, the proposed approach is scalable to large datasets by design since the size of the required kernel matrices depends on the number of collocation points rather than the size of the training dataset.

We consider policy optimization for online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with adversarial losses and bandit feedback. Policy optimization updates the policy locally at each state and avoids optimization over the occupancy-measure polytope, but its existing regret bounds are larger by a factor of the horizon $H$ than those of occupancy-measure-based algorithms. We close this gap by using regularized $Q$-functions, which allow us to control the stability of the local updates jointly over all state-action pairs rather than separately at each state. The resulting algorithm attains high-probability regret bounds of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{HS(H+A)T})$ for known transitions and $\widetilde O(HS\sqrt{AT})$ for unknown transitions, where $S$ is the number of states, $A$ the number of actions, and $T$ the number of episodes. Both bounds improve the horizon dependence of existing policy optimization bounds, and the latter matches the best-known bound. We further extend the algorithm to adversarial linear-mixture MDPs and obtain the same improvement in the horizon dependence.

We study Gaussian regression under squared population $L_2$ loss in a known $m$-dimensional subspace of degree-at-most-$k$ functions on the $d$-dimensional Boolean cube. Random inputs can undersample regions essential for prediction, delaying the parametric rate even when the model is known. For fixed $q_0<1/2$, $1\le k\le q_0d$, and sufficiently large fixed $A$, the worst-subspace sample threshold for minimax error $A\sigma^2(m+t)/n$ with confidence $1-e^{-t}$, $t\ge\log4$, is \[ N=(m+t)\exp\{E_{d,k}+O(k^{1/3})\}, \quad E_{d,k}=d\Psi(k/d), \] where $\Psi(q)=\log2-\mathsf H(\tfrac12-\sqrt{q(1-q)})$ and $\mathsf H$ is binary entropy with natural logarithms. The upper bound holds for every feasible $m$; the matching lower bound holds when $m\le\binom d{\lfloor k^{1/3}\rfloor}$ or $t\ge m$. We sharpen the Polyanskiy–Samorodnitsky uncertainty principle in two respects. First, for fixed leakage $\rho\in(0,1)$, the smallest set carrying a fraction $1-\rho$ of a nonzero degree-at-most-$k$ polynomial's energy has probability $\exp\{-E_{d,k}+O_{\rho,q_0}(k^{1/3})\}$. An Airy-kernel construction proves that the remainder cannot be $o(k^{1/3})$ in general. Second, we construct a subspace of dimension $\binom d{\lfloor k^{1/3}\rfloor}$ such that every function in the subspace has at least a fraction $1-\rho$ of its energy on the same set, whose probability is at most $\exp\{-E_{d,k}+C_{\rho,q_0}k^{1/3}\}$. For sufficiently large $k$, this set is a Hamming ball. A striking consequence is an exponential cost of noise: the parametric rate can require $(m+t)4^k\exp\{-O(k^{1/3})\}$ samples, whereas $O((m+t)2^k)$ suffice for noiseless identification. As $k\to\infty$ with $k/d\to0$, the noisy threshold is $(m+t)\exp\{2k+o(k)\}$.

Understanding a dynamical world calls for more than a latent state that summarizes its observations: the state should also be organized into the factors that stay shared across related observations and the factors that vary between them. For example, a robot pushing a cube to a goal should take the same action when the camera shifts or the lights dim, since nothing in the scene has moved. Existing approaches to this decomposition commonly obtain it through reconstruction, so the latent variables must first explain the entire observational world before their organization can be trusted. Joint embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) model the latent state directly and never reconstruct, yet no existing result recovers the invariant and variant parts of the state they learn. How to learn the invariant-variant structure of the latent world without paying for its reconstruction therefore remains open. To close this gap, we introduce SplitJEPA, a JEPA that jointly recovers the latent state and its invariant and variant organization directly in representation space, without any reconstruction. We prove that, under stationary Gaussian predictive dynamics and a full-rank variation condition, SplitJEPA identifies the invariant and variant subspaces up to independent block-wise isometries, without introducing an observation decoder. Since the guarantee needs no decoder, the result extends reconstruction-free latent recovery to invariant-variant block identification. Experiments on synthetic nonlinear systems and robotic manipulation tasks support the theoretical results and show their practical value for both robustness and efficiency.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) adapts pretrained large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, but the required concepts can receive substantially different levels of pretrained support. Frequent concepts are more likely to be well learned, whereas rare concepts may remain weakly represented. We introduce a novel notion named prior barrier to quantify how strongly the pretrained model supports competing concepts over the target concept. We observe that prior barriers follow a long-tail distribution, placing head and tail concepts at different starting points for SFT: head concepts face lower prior barriers, whereas tail concepts require additional instructions to overcome their higher prior barriers. Our theoretical analysis further derives a predictive risk bound for SFT under long-tail prior barriers, explicitly characterizing how the prior barrier and accumulated SFT evidence jointly determine predictive performance. Motivated by this prior barrier-dependent demand, we propose PASS, an adaptive SFT instruction selection method that constructs reference-derived concepts and estimates the distinguishing evidence provided by each instruction, and adaptively allocates the selection budget toward concepts that remain insufficiently covered under the current selection. In this way, PASS jointly considers which instructions can provide useful evidence and where additional supervision is needed under a limited budget. Experiments show that our method consistently outperforms seven state-of-the-art instruction selection methods on four backbone-budget settings. An ablation study further shows that PASS's adaptive allocation consistently improves over uniform allocation.

We introduce RefineMix, a framework for training discrete diffusion models under severe data scarcity, a common constraint in scientific applications. RefineMix uses out-of-distribution data at selected diffusion times to improve generalization without biasing the sampling distribution. Although this strategy has been explored in continuous diffusion, discrete diffusion presents a distinct challenge: unlike Gaussian noise, masking preserves domain information in surviving tokens, limiting the use of related data at high noise levels. At low noise levels, however, the domains effectively disjoint supports become an advantage, allowing the model to learn from both in-domain and out-of-distribution data without biasing the sampler. We formalize these intuitions and provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed method. Experimentally, across five domain-shift settings, RefineMix matches or outperforms in-domain finetuning and data mixing. For protein sequence generation, finetuning with just 197 in-domain examples nearly doubles the fraction of generated proteins that are simultaneously novel, foldable, and in-family compared to standard finetuning.

While caching key-value (KV) states accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) decoding, this cache can dominate memory usage at long context lengths. One solution is to compress this memory by exploiting inter-layer cache similarities. However, most existing techniques necessitate architectural changes to LLMs and incur substantial overhead. In this work, we propose a symmetry-aware value cache merging strategy that reduces cache memory while avoiding both harmful performance degradation and architectural overhead during decoding. Furthermore, we show that this approach can be exploited alongside existing cache compression techniques, composing with high-ratio quantization or key cache pruning to reach compression ratios that neither method reaches alone, with minimal additional cost. Ultimately, our findings reveal a major source of underutilized capacity in the value cache, offering a simple yet highly effective direction for scaling context windows under memory constraints.

Many tasks in scientific computing and machine learning require the Jacobian or Hessian matrix of a function. Automatic differentiation (AD) computes these derivatives to machine precision, but materializing a dense $m \times n$ Jacobian requires $n$ forward-mode or $m$ reverse-mode AD passes, one per column or row. For a large class of functions, each output depends on only a few inputs, making the derivative matrix sparse. Automatic sparse differentiation (ASD) exploits this structure in four steps: detection of the input-agnostic sparsity pattern, coloring of a graph to group columns or rows that can share an AD pass, compressed differentiation to compute a compressed derivative matrix with one AD pass per color, and finally decompression into the original sparsity pattern. The number of colors, and hence of AD passes, is often independent of the problem dimension: a banded Jacobian with $b$ contiguous bands, for instance, only ever requires $b$ colors, regardless of its size. asdex offers the first standalone ASD toolkit in the popular JAX ecosystem. With $\texttt{asdex.jacobian}$ and $\texttt{asdex.hessian}$, it provides sparse drop-in replacements for $\texttt{jax.jacobian}$ and $\texttt{jax.hessian}$.

Accurate simulation of rigid-body interactions is essential for predictive physical world models. Despite recent progress in modeling object dynamics, capturing how local contacts between surfaces shape object motion remains challenging. While end-to-end world models predict interactions across entire scenes or objects, in practice, rigid-body contact is inherently local, and only nearby surfaces can directly exchange contact forces. Motivated by this observation, we introduce Rigid-body Contact Reasoning (RiCo), which represents interactions between objects through sparse neighborhoods of contact surface points. RiCo combines each point's state with the relative geometry, motion, and physical properties of nearby surfaces, then reasons across the object's points to determine how these local contacts jointly affect its motion. By confining cross-object reasoning to nearby surfaces while propagating contact information within each rigid body, RiCo retains fine-grained interaction details without the cost of modeling every pair of scene points. Such properties enable RiCo a higher accuracy and contact fidelity. Experiments on MOVi-benchmark demonstrate that RiCo reduces 100-frame position and orientation errors by 31-35% and approximately 38%, respectively, compared with baselines. Moreover, RiCo achieves high contact fidelity, with ground-truth-relative penetration-time and mean-depth differences of 11.0% and 2.22 mm, respectively. RiCo further generalizes zero-shot from small-scale training scenarios to scenes containing 270 objects. Our real-world multi-ball collision experiments further provide preliminary evidence of sim-to-real transfer.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identify treatment effects without confounding but are often small, whereas observational studies (OBS) are large but may be confounded. Many estimators combining a small RCT with a large OBS have been developed for the average treatment effect (ATE) and the conditional ATE (CATE). However, existing ATE estimators either make assumptions on the OBS or do not borrow enough power from them. The CATE has been studied less than the ATE. Existing CATE methods either assume the OBS are unconfounded, rely on a model of the confounding function, or accept bias in exchange for lower variance. We therefore propose a framework that, without special assumptions on the OBS, fuses the OBS and the RCT by preserving the unbiasedness of RCT-based estimation while borrowing power from the large OBS to boost precision. Applying this principle, we build an ATE estimator, AIPW-Fusion, with closed-form weights and confidence intervals, and two CATE learners, DR-Fusion and R-Fusion. Experiments corroborate our findings.

We consider stochastic nonsmooth nonconvex composite optimization, which includes several important problems such as constrained optimization and the regularized training of neural networks. The objective is the sum of a possibly nonsmooth nonconvex Lipschitz function and a convex regularizer, and the function is accessed through stochastic gradients or function values. The goal is to find a point that satisfies a Goldstein-type stationarity condition designed for composite objectives. To our knowledge, no oracle complexity bound for this setting is known under first-order access, and existing complexities under zeroth-order access are suboptimal. To handle this issue, we employ the framework of online-to-nonconvex conversion, which chooses update directions by an online learner and is known to achieve optimal rates for noncomposite problems. We extend the framework to our composite scenario by introducing new losses for the learner, which contain the regularizer itself rather than its linearization and for which a variant of online mirror descent achieves low regret. We show that the resulting algorithm finds such a point with $O(\delta^{-1}\varepsilon^{-3})$ stochastic gradient queries or $O(d\delta^{-1}\varepsilon^{-3})$ function-value queries, where $\delta$ is the Goldstein radius, $\varepsilon$ is the stationarity tolerance, and $d$ is the dimension. These rates match the optimal ones for noncomposite nonsmooth nonconvex optimization, demonstrating that the additional convex regularizer does not worsen the oracle complexity. We also give rates for the smooth case and present numerical experiments.

The memory-bound nature of the decoding stage of large language model (LLM) inference incurs significant latency. Layer-wise training-free network pruning approaches guided by the Hessian have been a prominent solution to this problem, as pruning reduces the number of nonzero parameters read from memory during decoding. Nevertheless, typical methods in this line compute the Hessian using pre-collected natural sequences, whereas the model is fed self-generated tokens during decoding, creating a distribution shift between the two sequences. The Hessian calculated on the natural sequence is different from that calculated on the generated sequence. We observe that this discrepancy causes the activation distribution during generation to deviate from that used for pruning, further hurting the pruned model performance. Moreover, most existing LLM pruning methods that bring actual speedup primarily target the sparse matrix-matrix (SpMM) multiplication, providing limited support for the sparse matrix-vector (SpMV) operations, which dominate decoding. To solve these problems, we introduce SparseDecoding, a principled decoding-aware pruning framework tailored for accurate and efficient LLM decoding. Specifically, at the algorithmic axis, SparseDecoding constructs calibration matrices from layer-wise activations collected during the dense-model autoregressive generation, excluding prefill, thereby aligning the pruning objective with the decoding activations. At the system axis, we develop an optimized N:M sparse matrix-vector kernel with bitmask indexing and fixed-step traversal. Substantial empirical results on representative LLMs (Llama-3.1-8B, Llama-3.3-70B, Qwen3-14B / 32B) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms standard fixed-text calibration on the long-form generation benchmarks while achieving up to 1.48x end-to-end wall-clock decoding speedup on A100 GPUs.

Do LLM scientific agents rely only on their initial task context, or do they adapt their decisions in response to experimental feedback? We study this question in neural operator adaptation, where a large language model (LLM) selects fine-tuning configurations under a limited trial budget. Across transfers within and between partial differential equation (PDE) families, the LLM achieves lower held-out test nRMSE than random search and Bayesian optimisation in nearly every matched comparison. Endpoint performance alone cannot distinguish what happens, so we verify each attribution with controlled interventions. Before observing any validation score, the LLM's first configuration already ranks near the top of the corresponding random-search pool, indicating a useful initial bias. A complementary cold-start intervention shows that the selected base learning rate shifts with the PDE description. Once feedback becomes available, reassigning validation scores among evaluated configurations changes the next proposal in every case tested, whereas a value-preserving rewrite produces no comparable aggregate effect. These interventions establish that the LLM's decision-level actions respond to the given task and observed outcomes, showing that it combines a task-dependent prior with sensitivity to experimental feedback.

Spatial public goods models show that prescribed movement toward richer locations can generate spatial patterns. We ask how such patterns emerge when agents learn where to move and how learning rates shape their consequences for collective welfare. Fixed populations of cooperators and defectors independently learn movement policies using tabular Q-learning and local observations. Cooperator learning generates clusters around resource peaks, while co-adaptation changes their strength and motion. At a fixed training budget, the largest welfare losses occur when cooperators learn at high rates and defectors at low rates. In part of this regime, learned policies also generate traveling bands supported by a shared directional preference. The conditions supporting travel change with further training, so these patterns reflect training history rather than an established asymptotic outcome. Across the tested learning-rate conditions with cooperator learning, mean collective welfare falls below random movement because increased crowding outweighs gains in resource benefit. Charging agents for the crowding they impose on others during learning recovers much of the welfare loss in the tested conditions. These results connect learning rates to the emergence and welfare costs of spatial organization driven by individual rewards.

Over 90% of disease-associated variants from genome-wide association studies fall in noncoding regulatory regions, yet their functional interpretation remains a central open problem in genomic medicine. Large language models prompted to interpret such variants routinely hallucinate transcription factor (TF) binding changes, fabricate experimental support, and assign biological significance to statistically negligible signals. We present ARGUS (Agentic Regulatory Genomics for an Uncertainty-aware Scientist), which strictly separates deterministic biological computation from LLM-mediated reasoning. ARGUS wraps 458 DNABERT-based TF binding models in a hypothesis-directed investigation loop where a planner selects evidence sources based on current uncertainty, a verifier deterministically interprets each observation, and intermediate results change the investigation path. On variant rs6983267 at the 8q24 cancer risk locus, the same planner produces four divergent trajectories for four TFs. FOXA1 is rescued in 3 steps when real ADASTRA allele-specific binding data (15 experiments, FDR = 0.030) reveals a model false negative masked by saturation. KLF6 traverses 8 steps across ADASTRA, JASPAR motif analysis, and ENCODE cCRE regulatory annotation before abstaining due to mixed indirect evidence. RAD21 abstains in 8 steps after ADASTRA returns a coverage-qualified but nonsignificant allelic test (5 experiments, FDR = 0.65), and SP1, which shares FOXA1's saturated retained prediction, abstains because no direct experimental evidence exists at this locus. All observations come from real ADASTRA, JASPAR, and ENCODE cCRE queries; none are simulated. A comparison of fixed-priority and LLM-mediated planning shows that the LLM planner reaches identical verdicts with fewer tool calls by declining evidence that cannot resolve the claim under test.

Accurate workload forecasting is critical for elastic resource provisioning in web-scale cloud services, where distribution shifts driven by viral content, product launches, and user behavior degrade offline-trained models rapidly. Naive online learning recovers accuracy but incurs prohibitive per-step compute cost. We propose AdaptLSTM, an adaptive online framework that detects drift via validation-calibrated thresholds and applies selective, targeted updates. On the Alibaba Machine Trace, AdaptLSTM recovers 54% of Naive Online's improvement at 20% cost ($2.7\times$ efficiency, $p=0.002$ over 10 seeds). On the more volatile Container Trace, it achieves 96% at 20% cost ($4.8\times$ efficiency, $+75\%$ MAE reduction over Static). Unlike classical drift detectors (ADWIN, DDM, Page-Hinkley) which fail to trigger on regression-scale error streams, AdaptLSTM fires 42 times over 301 steps and outperforms matched-budget baselines. Wall-clock profiling shows $1.33\times$ throughput gain and 45% update-time reduction. The framework is model-agnostic: identical Pareto patterns hold for LSTM, GRU, and Transformer backbones.

Topological Deep Learning extends graph-based learning to higher-order domains, such as hypergraphs, cellular, and simplicial complexes. These domains are typically constructed from patterns in an input graph through a process of graph lifting. Full-domain training constructs and stores the complete lifted representation before model execution. On large and dense datasets like Reddit (233k nodes and 57.3M edges), this global materialization becomes a severe computational bottleneck, often rendering training infeasible. To address this limitation, we introduce Cluster-TNN, a domain-agnostic framework that avoids this bottleneck by lifting locally instead. After partitioning the input graph during preprocessing, at runtime Cluster-TNN dynamically samples groups of node clusters, reconstructs their induced subgraphs to form mini-batches, and applies the chosen lifting within each mini-batch. Retaining all edges among sampled nodes preserves the connectivity needed to construct higher-order structures across clusters, producing topological mini-batches that existing Topological Neural Networks can process directly. Across 21 matched comparisons with full-graph execution, Cluster-TNN reduces peak GPU memory in every configuration, by 83.2% on average while maintaining competitive predictive performance. Notably, such a reduction enables, to our knowledge, the first training of multiple different higher-order Topological Neural Networks on large datasets such as Reddit and OGBN Products. These results establish Cluster-TNN as a general strategy for scaling Topological Deep Learning beyond the limitations of global domain construction.

Isolation Forest (IF) is a widely used baseline for unsupervised anomaly detection. Recent studies provide a closed-form expression for the infinite-forest limit for one-dimensional data. Inspired by the geometric interpretation of this formula, we introduce RIFT (Relative Isolation From Trees), a deterministic anomaly detection method that generates the minimum spanning tree and scores each point by the sum of the apparent sizes of tree edges as viewed from that point. For one-dimensional data, the RIFT score recovers the closed-form IF limit exactly. In higher dimensions, it provides a parameter-free generalization that is deterministic, robust to varying density and clustered anomalies and avoids the axis-parallel artifacts of IF. We further propose an ensemble variant for large datasets. Experiments on synthetic data and the ADBench benchmark demonstrate that the accuracy is comparable to IF, while the ensemble variant exhibits significantly lower variance across random seeds.

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have achieved strong forecasting performance across domains. However, most adaptation methods remain static. Existing all-in-one methods learn a single set of dataset-level parameter updates and apply the same adapted model to every input. As a result, they cannot adapt the model parameters to the temporal patterns, seasonality and dynamics of each input time series. This limits their ability to produce forecasts that are tailored to heterogeneous inputs. To address this limitation, we propose AdaCast, a conditional parameter generation framework for time-series forecasting. AdaCast uses a generator to produce input-specific low-rank parameter updates for a frozen pretrained TSFM. These updates adapt the model to each input during both training and inference. Across six public benchmarks, AdaCast consistently outperforms static adaptation baseline in in-domain forecasting and improves zero-shot generalization to held-out datasets across domains. These results demonstrate that conditional parameter generation provides an effective approach for adaptive forecasting.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods for time-series forecasting update a deployed model, or a small adapter around it, from incoming ground truth. But the label of an $H$-step forecast exists only $H$ steps later, and real data pipelines add further delay. We build a leakage-free harness in which the label of forecast origin $s$ is released for updates only at step $s+d$ with $d \ge H$, and enforce this rule inside the released code of four recent TTA methods (TAFAS, COSA, PETSA and DynaTTA), run on their own backbones and checkpoints across five benchmarks (ETTm1, ETTh2, Weather, Electricity and Traffic). As references we add two closed-form correctors: a bank of recursive least squares (RLS) filters combined by a per-coordinate median, with no tunable hyperparameters and 56 microseconds per step on the 7-channel streams, and an ELF-style linear corrector. Under causal delayed labels the picture is asymmetric. On ETTm1 every audited method genuinely adapts, yet the RLS bank still beats three of the four at a fraction of their cost; only DynaTTA beats the bank, only at the minimum causal delay, and at roughly 2,500 times the per-update cost; the ELF-style corrector beats all four. On the other four datasets, the largest statistically significant improvement any published method achieves over its own frozen checkpoint is half a percent, on all four at least one published method is significantly worse than the frozen model at the minimum causal delay, and on drift-heavy ETTh2 longer label delays make every adapter that separates from the frozen model, ours included, significantly harmful. Leaky next-step updates inflate the apparent gains of simple adapters by up to 110%, and the backbone training recipe moves frozen online error by up to a factor of 25, more than any adaptation effect we measure. We release the harness, integration patches and all cached runs.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a popular method for efficiently optimizing expensive black-box objectives. However, BO utilizing standard Gaussian Processes is ill-suited for doubly stochastic Cox Processes that are often used in spatio-temporal problem spaces. We introduce INLA-SPDE Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Optimization (ISBO): the first scalable BO framework for spatio-temporal data, that models the log-intensity with a Log-Gaussian Cox Process(LGCP) and performs inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (INLA-SPDE) approach. Using a Matern field on meshes yields a sparse Gaussian Markov Random Field, where INLA provides fast and accurate posterior inference throughout sequential optimization. ISBO stably locates high-intensity regions and the peak of the latent intensity with minimal evaluations. A time-varying Upper Confidence Bound acquisition with masking avoids revisits, while penalized-complexity priors regularize early rounds. Experiments on synthetic and real-world spatio-temporal datasets show accurate peak discovery, intensity recovery, and substantial speedups over an RKHS-based baseline, positioning ISBO as a practical choice for BO with point-process data.

A verifier that accepts or rejects whole answers reveals little: under a flat prior over $k$-bit answers, zero error needs $2^k-1$ verifications. The usual remedy is to solve related source tasks, either all first, as a curriculum does, or interleaved with verification. We price this remedy in information and in calls. With an exact verifier, the least causal information that any interleaving of source calls and $n$ verifications needs to succeed with probability $s$ is a list rate-distortion function, attained by one observation before any verification. It lower-bounds the expected number of binary source calls, which designed sources meet within $1+\log_25$ calls for unique answers and within a logarithmic term in general, where no additive constant suffices. With an exact verifier and fixed sources, moving every call before the first verification preserves all hard caps on calls, although interleaving can save unboundedly many expected calls; under a noisy verifier, source-first protocols can lose unbounded factors in information and in error. For linear banks over $\mathbb{F}_2$, optimal accuracy has a closed form, and after a polynomial-time reduction the budget profile is computable in time $2^{O(h^2)}\operatorname{poly}(J,k+h)$ for $J$ sources and nuisance dimension $h$. In these banks, for zero error under a hard cap, the calls beyond the rounded-up information price are exactly those spent on nuisance. Every numbered result apart from two clauses about the planner is machine-checked in Lean 4, assuming two published results. Used as a ruler, the frontier shows a small transformer using all delivered bits at latent dimension $5$ and none at $11$ within fixed training budgets; in a test with predictions recorded before training, low XOR degree of the target bits did not suffice for their use.

Pre-trained transformer models are increasingly being used to study scientific and technological progress. Encoders tuned to paper or patent text outperform general-purpose models on downstream classification, regression, and proximity tasks within science and technology. However, the applicability of these models for studying time-dependent or archival properties of science, technology, and their interface is limited due to lookahead and domain biases inherent to these pre-trained models. These limitations arise from training on corpora with unconstrained chronological and text source distributions. We introduce SciTBERT: a family of chronologically consistent BERT-derived language models trained on text from scientific papers, patents, and high-quality educational web text with training data cutoff dates spanning each year between 2013 and 2025. We also post-train these models in a chronologically-consistent manner using paper and patent citations, creating SciTBERT-CI model family. We find that these models generally outperform predecessor domain-specific encoder models even when training data is limited by early year restrictions in the corpus. To further investigate the extent to which this class of models can learn representations that bridge science and technology, we introduce the PatRepEval benchmark, a suite of patent-related text embedding tasks at the science-technology interface. Performance in a variety of classification, regression, and retrieval tasks spanning papers and patents highlights the importance of aligning encoder model representations with the domain distributions of their downstream tasks, and chronologically consistent encoders can match or exceed models trained without temporal constraints.

Classical CUSUM relies on the log-likelihood ratio of the underlying distributions, which cannot generally be computed from finite pre- and post-change samples alone. We propose diffusion-integrated score CUSUM (DI-SCUSUM), a training-free detector. We add Gaussian noise to the samples to form two smooth density estimates and calculate their Hyvärinen scores exactly, without training a score network. For each incoming observation, we sample a diffusion time, perturb the observation, and use the importance-weighted score difference as an increment in the DI-SCUSUM recursion. Under the assumption that observations follow the fixed empirical distributions, the post-change mean increment is proportional to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the smoothed post-change to the smoothed pre-change empirical distribution. We establish exponential false-alarm scaling and a first-order delay bound that, for a fixed threshold and increment scaling, is inversely proportional to the KL divergence. In the calibrated anisotropic Gaussian simulation, DI-SCUSUM nearly matches likelihood-ratio CUSUM and reduces the measured detection delay by about 91% relative to score-based CUSUM. On MNIST and Oxford-IIIT Pet, DI-SCUSUM also has lower empirical conditional detection delay than SCUSUM at comparable false-alarm levels.

As claims about recursive self-improvement (RSI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI) proliferate, we ask a simple question: do frontier AI models have a sense of data, i.e., can they reliably select the right data for training? We introduce DataSense-Bench to study this capability through the fundamental problem of data selection and performance forecasting in machine learning. We ask AI agents to select and rank candidate training subsets that can be used to fine-tune a small LLM model. Agents are allowed to inspect the data, write and execute analysis code, and run model forward passes, but can not train the model or access the actual evaluation tasks. We then fine-tune the base model on each selected subset and evaluate its post-training performance under a standardized protocol. We instantiate the benchmark in terminal problem solving and tool use, selecting trajectories from OpenThoughts-Agent and EnvScaler and evaluating on TBLite and BFCL, respectively. We then evaluate the agents along two complementary dimensions: the post-training performance of the top-ranked subset, reflecting the ability to identify high-value training data, and ranking accuracy, reflecting the ability to predict the relative performance of the selected subsets. In our experiments, selection gains over random selection are limited; agents do not reliably rank their selected groups, and ranking ability does not hold consistently across tasks: Astra identifies the best group in all three tool-use runs but in only one of three terminal runs. Analysis of execution traces on both tasks shows that agents often use similar data signals while interpreting their training value differently.

Generative diffusion models are well-suited for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting, but existing approaches often rely on separately trained compression or deterministic forecasting components and remain costly at inference due to iterative denoising. We introduce Just Weather Scoring (JWS), a single-stage, end-to-end diffusion model which addresses both issues by forecasting directly in radar space and enabling few-step generation. Radar-space modeling greatly simplifies training and inference and eliminates uncertainty arising from lossy compression. JWS combines Masked Asynchronous Diffusion, a timestep-sampling scheme that preserves clean context while adapting diffusion training to high-dimensional spatio-temporal data, with a simple scoring-rule objective that aligns training with probabilistic forecasting and unlocks few-step generation. On the SEVIR and MeteoNet benchmarks, JWS achieves state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting performance at reduced training and inference cost. Even our smallest model remains competitive using substantially fewer parameters and more than 17x faster inference.

Black-box optimization (BBO) arises in many scientific and engineering problems where objective evaluations are expensive and limited. Recent large language model (LLM) agents offer a new way to approach BBO by combining task semantics, computation, optimization tools, and feedback-driven decision making, showing great potential due to the integration with mathematically rigorous tools. However, existing agentic BBO studies use different task domains and system configurations, making their results difficult to compare and the effects of individual design choices hard to isolate. We therefore introduce AgenticBBO-Bench, a cross-domain benchmark for agentic BBO spanning synthetic functions, hyperparameter optimization, database tuning, chip design, and molecular design under a unified finite-budget evaluation protocol. In our experiments, agentic BBO achieves higher family-averaged scores than direct LLM-based methods in all five domains and outperforms the best numerical optimizers in four. We further study three factors shaping agent performance: optimization tools, task information and prior knowledge, and the role of the LLM during search. Our results show that additional numerical tools do not consistently improve performance, task semantics are broadly useful while more specific priors are less reliable, and numerical optimizers can effectively absorb gains from search trajectories established by the agent. Finally, we introduce a five-task frontier challenge within AgenticBBO-Bench and evaluate seven LLMs under the Codex agent harness, where GPT-6 Astra and DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash lie on the Pareto frontier of performance and cost among the evaluated models. Our code is available at https://github.com/lamda-bbo/agentic-bbo.

We introduce a self-improvement loop for reasoning models based on the following observation: Even when the difficulty of a problem exceeds the model's current solving abilities, an additionally supplied solution might enable the model to extract useful solution ideas in hindsight. We operationalize this by jointly training the same model to exhibit the following three capabilities: predicting solution ideas from problems alone, reverse-engineering ideas from problems and known solutions, and solving problems using provided ideas. The loop alternates between reverse engineering such ideas from problems with supplied solutions and using these ideas as additional supervision for joint training of all three capabilities. We give a formal specification of our method and a concrete instantiation for interactive theorem proving in the Lean theorem prover; empirical evaluation remains future work.