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Tuesday 29 September

Machine Learning

Bellman-Certified Rounding for Sparse Policy Deployment in MDPs

Continuous policy optimization may spread an update across many states, even when deployment permits only a few complete state-level changes. We study how much discounted return can be retained when continuous row mixtures are rounded to sparse binary policies in finite MDPs. Policy-dependent visitation couples the row edits, while long horizons make global curvature bounds conservative. From $2d+2$ Bellman solves, we derive reusable envelopes that support uniform and candidate-specific guarantees before rounding. A rank-two rational representation of each exchange further permits weighted curvature integration along the realized trajectory. We prove that linear dimension dependence is unavoidable when the budget scales, and that exact global curvature thresholding is hard. Candidate-specific bounds raise pre-rounding certification coverage from $48.2\%$ to $74.1\%$ on the structured suite. At $\gamma=0.95$, local integration lowers the median bound-to-loss ratio from $402.3$ to $2.08$ on coupled instances.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

CAST: Cost-Aware Speculative Trees from One-Pass Block Drafters

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model inference by drafting future tokens cheaply and verifying them with the target model in parallel. Block drafters score a whole block of future tokens in one forward pass, yet standard decoding verifies only the top-scoring chain and discards the other candidates. Because these candidates are already scored, verifying more of them adds target computation but no extra drafting. We introduce CAST (Cost-Aware Speculative Trees), which packs these candidates into a tree and verifies it in a single target pass, leaving the target model, drafter weights, and decoding rule untouched. To decide how wide the tree should be, CAST adds candidates while the expected gain from the next one outweighs the verification time it adds. The width therefore adapts to each deployment from a latency measurement, without sweeping over widths. We evaluate CAST across five domains on three GPU generations and two model families. At its predicted width, CAST is faster than the standard chain in all eight settings, by up to 43%. We also find that the best width depends strongly on the deployment. Where verification cost jumps at a kernel boundary, a 128-token tree is only 2% faster than the standard chain, whereas the tree at the predicted width is 20% faster. Furthermore, we prove that CAST leaves the target output distribution unchanged under both greedy and sampled decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/js-lee-AI/CAST.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Refusal Localizes, the Damage Relocates: Safety Layers Under Few-Sample Fine-Tuning

Fine-tuning adapts aligned large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, but a few dozen harmful examples can remove their refusal of harmful requests. Prior work localizes safety-related behavior to specific layers, directions, and tokens, suggesting targets for protection. We test whether successful localization and recovery support defenses that survive changes in the attack. Across six checkpoints from four model families, harmful and benign prompts remain linearly separable after attack, and patching full clean hidden states into the compromised model restores refusal at a reproducible transition depth. Building on a prior layer-freezing defense, we freeze every layer up to this depth and repeat the attack. At a hundred harmful examples, refusal remains near zero on all six checkpoints, with recovery transitions above the frozen boundary. In a second study, removing the update's top two singular directions restores refusal after short attention-only fine-tunes on four checkpoints. On Llama-3.1-8B, ordinary training changes weaken this repair and an attacker who spreads the update defeats it. A spectral detector calibrated on benign Llama fine-tunes misses most repair failures on that checkpoint. Localized freezing can nevertheless help preserve refusal when a few harmful examples enter training data unintentionally. These results show that an attacker can bypass a region identified by recovery and defeat a repair that works across multiple checkpoints, motivating five checks for defenses against adaptive fine-tuning. Code is available at https://github.com/js-lee-AI/refusal-relocates.
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All authors Jungseob Lee, Dongyub Jude Lee, Sugyeong Eo, Seongtae Hong, Seungyoon Lee, Heuiseok Lim

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

DriftOPD: Sequence-Level Reverse-KL Distillation for One-Step VLA Policies

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models increasingly rely on action experts that generate short action chunks under receding-horizon control. While chunk-level training is convenient across robot embodiments, it optimizes local action likelihood without explicitly accounting for long-horizon task success. Sequence-level reinforcement learning can address this limitation, but typically requires policy rollouts and closed-loop interaction, which are costly for real-robot manipulation. We introduce DriftOPD, a teacher-free, rollout-free framework for sequence-level on-policy distillation of continuous VLA action experts. We show that the sequence-level reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence decomposes into a chunk-level reverse-KL term and a future-potential term that captures the long-horizon effect of the current action. DriftOPD optimizes these two terms using a one-step drifting objective and a Q-function critic learned from offline demonstrations, respectively, enabling sequence-level optimization with only offline data and one-step action generation. Across multiple VLA architectures in simulation and real-world manipulation, DriftOPD generally outperforms existing one-step distillation baselines while achieving task success performance comparable to multi-step teacher policies. These results demonstrate that long-horizon behavior can be effectively distilled into one-step VLA action experts without online interaction or a separate teacher.
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All authors Youngjun Jun, Kyumin Choi, Youngmin Kim, Seonghyun Jin, Sunwoo Park, Jangho Park, Jong Chul Ye

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Beyond Pixel Reconstruction: Retrieval-Guided Glyph-Aware Restoration for Low-Resource Manchu Historical Documents

Historical Manchu documents preserve invaluable linguistic and cultural heritage, yet their digitization is hindered by severe degradations and the scarcity of paired training data. Existing document restoration methods primarily optimize pixel-level reconstruction, which can produce visually plausible results while failing to preserve the structural identity of Manchu glyphs. To address this limitation, we propose a retrieval-guided glyph-aware restoration framework that goes beyond pixel reconstruction by explicitly incorporating glyph-level structural knowledge. Our method retrieves relevant glyph exemplars to provide structural guidance during restoration and integrates this information into the reconstruction process, improving the recovery of degraded character structures under low-resource conditions. Extensive experiments on Manchu historical documents demonstrate that the proposed approach improves both image restoration quality and glyph-level fidelity compared with existing restoration methods. These results highlight the importance of incorporating character-aware structural priors for reliable restoration of low-resource historical documents.
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All authors Ting Huang, Dongdong Wang, Mingqiu Liang, Siyang Lu

Machine Learning

In-Distribution Imagination for Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning

Model-based offline reinforcement learning (MBORL) improves sample efficiency through model-generated trajectories. However, accumulative model error can drive imagined trajectories outside the offline data distribution, leading to unrealistic synthetic data and unstable policy optimization. Many existing methods primarily control rollouts using transition-level uncertainty. We propose in-distribution imagination (IDI), a rollout control framework that estimates trajectory support in a learned representation space and adaptively truncates rollouts that leave the offline trajectory manifold. Combined with trajectory-regularized RL, an extension of entropy-regularized RL, IDI consistently improves performance in limited-data settings. Experiments show that trajectory support predicts rollout failure substantially better than transition-level uncertainty, highlighting the importance of trajectory-level rollout control in MBORL.
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Machine Learning

Provable Test-Time Scaling for Beam Search in LLM Reasoning

Beam-search-based test-time methods provide an effective way to improve large language model (LLM) performance on long-horizon generation by pruning invalid reasoning paths early, leading to significantly improved reasoning efficiency and more favorable test-time cost scaling. Despite strong empirical success, the theoretical understanding of beam search remains limited. In this paper, we study the test-time compute guarantee of the commonly used beam search framework that uses the model's internal log-likelihood for intermediate scoring, while relying on an external reward model only after a complete response is generated. We first establish a lower bound for vanilla beam search, showing that at least $\Omega(C^\star(x)^2)$ samples are required for the optimal response to survive, where $C^\star(x)$ is the token-level coverage coefficient for prompt $x$. This motivates our modified confidence-filtered beam search (CF-Beam), which reduces the sufficient coverage dependence from quadratic to nearly linear under prefix competitiveness, for fixed horizon, gap, and target accuracy. We then show that the regret of CF-Beam is upper-bounded by the probability of rare failure events and the reward estimation error scaled by a path-level coverage coefficient, where the rare-failure term vanishes as per-step sampling increases. Our results highlight a fundamental advantage of beam search over sequence-level inference methods such as Best-of-N and Best-of-Majority. While the guarantees of these approaches typically involve coverage coefficients that grow exponentially with the horizon $L$, CF-Beam controls the dominant search-induced term through a token-level coverage coefficient that scales polynomially with $L$. Our numerical experiments further confirm that beam search is more robust on hard instances and under increasing reasoning horizons.
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All authors Qijia He, Yu Huang, Yuan Cheng, Yuxin Chen, Yingbin Liang

Machine Learning

Understanding Off- vs On-Policy Distillation: A Tale of Distinct Training Objectives

On-policy distillation (OPD) learns from teacher feedback on student-generated responses and has shown promise in reducing forgetting relative to supervised fine-tuning (SFT). However, its benefits and fragility remain incompletely understood. We study sequential distillation from multiple teachers, where the student minimizes its average divergence from the teachers. Forward Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence yields a weighted arithmetic mixture, while reverse KL yields a normalized weighted geometric aggregate. We develop algorithms that learn these targets under off-policy and on-policy feedback, respectively, establishing logarithmic regret bounds in the tabular setting and extending the analysis to function approximation. By analyzing these aggregation targets, we identify mechanisms that help explain both the benefits and fragility of OPD. Relative to forward KL, reverse KL can better retain a confident expert's preferences under uninformative feedback, but is more sensitive to teachers that assign very low probabilities to correct responses. Its token-level conditionals also reveal a dependence on continuation distributions that can favor incorrect prefixes over long horizons.
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All authors Qiwei Di, Xuheng Li, Kaixuan Ji, Chenggong Zhang, Heyang Zhao, Quanquan Gu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Bandits with Multiple Optimal Arms: Minimax Regret and Non-Adaptivity

We study multi-armed bandits (MAB) with multiple optimal arms, motivated by the fact that many practical decision making problems admit multiple correct answers. For $K$-armed bandits with $A$ optimal arms, we first provide a sharper analysis of previous sub-sampling algorithms (De Heide et al., 2021; Zhu and Nowak, 2020), establishing a $\tilde{O}\Big(\frac{K-A}{\sqrt{KA}}\sqrt{T} \Big)$ minimax regret, where $T$ is the total number of interactions and $\tilde O(\cdot)$ drops all constant and logarithmic factors, improving the previous $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{KT/A})$ regret. We then provide a matching lower bound up to logarithmic factors, indicating that our established rate is nearly minimax-optimal. We further show that the knowledge of $A$ up to $\tilde{O}(1)$ factors is necessary to achieve near-optimal regret, as near-optimal algorithms for one number of optimal arms must incur substantially larger regret than optimal regret for a smaller number. Overall, our results provide a comprehensive minimax characterization of $K$-armed bandits with $A$ over the entire range of $1 \leq A \leq K-1$.
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All authors Kaixuan Ji, Qiwei Di, Qingyue Zhao, Heyang Zhao, Quanquan Gu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

TERRA: Terrain-Aware Reconstruction, Retargeting and Control for Musculoskeletal Locomotion

Recent advances in musculoskeletal modeling and reinforcement learning have enabled muscle-actuated agents to reproduce increasingly complex human motions. Yet these capabilities remain largely confined to flat ground, in part because motion datasets rarely include aligned terrain geometry and because retargeting terrain interactions to complex musculoskeletal bodies is challenging. We present TERRA, an end-to-end pipeline for terrain-aware retargeting and control of musculoskeletal locomotion. From kinematic trajectories alone, TERRA combines terrain priors, estimated contacts, and negative free-space evidence to recover task-relevant support geometry. TERRA further considers anatomical, tendon-continuity, and contact constraints during retargeting. Using the resulting motion-terrain pairs from five datasets, we successfully train a single muscle-actuated control policy on 9.4 hours of diverse locomotion. Across reconstruction, retargeting, and held-out tracking benchmarks, TERRA improves terrain accuracy, sharply reduces anatomical and interaction violations, and achieves the highest observed completion rate over supported terrain families. Overall, TERRA provides a practical route from scene-less motion data to muscle-actuated locomotion over diverse non-flat terrain. Project website: https://cnai.epfl.ch/terra/
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All authors Merkourios Simos, Chengkun Li, Bianca Ziliotto, Alexander Mathis

Machine Learning

Uncertainty-Normalized Margins for Direct Preference Optimization

Direct preference optimization (DPO) models binary preferences through a Bradley-Terry model with a common noise scale, without explicitly accounting for preference strength or prompt-dependent uncertainty from human feedback. We introduce uncertainty-normalized margin DPO (UNM-DPO), which combines strength-dependent margins with a learned prompt scale. Motivated by a heteroskedastic Bradley-Terry model, we develop two training objectives. Both compare the implicit rewards of preferred and rejected responses, derived from response log-probability ratios to a reference policy. Advantage-only (AO) divides this reward difference by the prompt scale before subtracting the margin; whole-residual (WR) subtracts the margin before dividing by the scale. For the WR comparison model, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition under which known margins make the prompt scale identifiable. We introduce a practical procedure for learning the scale. Building on WR, we introduce ULNM-DPO-WR, which normalizes each response's implicit reward by its length. We evaluate our methods against DPO and related baselines on HelpSteer2 and HelpSteer3, using the Skywork reward model as a judge. With Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, ULNM-DPO-WR achieves tie-adjusted win rates against matched DPO of 68.00% and 65.31% on evaluation panels, with higher mean rewards and shorter responses on average. On AlpacaEval with a GPT-4.1 judge and GPT-4-Turbo reference answers, the same 8B policy achieves a length-controlled win rate of 21.62%, compared with 16.39% for DPO and 15.30% for SimPO. These results demonstrate the potential of combining preference-strength margins, learned prompt scales, and length normalization for policy optimization.
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Machine Learning

Alignment via Training Against Probes Without Losing Monitorability

Models are usually aligned based on their observed outputs, using demonstrations, preference data, or reward signals. These objectives reward responses that look aligned. More capable models may learn to satisfy them without internalizing the intended behavior, for example by faking compliance during training. Such superficial compliance could be harder when the objective is defined on model internals rather than outputs. Therefore, we study probe-guided fine-tuning, using probes that detect undesired properties in model activations as a direct training signal. We evaluate linear and non-linear probes with different numbers of probes per layer across two alignment objectives: harmlessness and honesty. We find that training against probes that do not update during training is an easily exploitable objective, while continuously updated probes substantially reduce harmfulness and improve honesty while preserving utility. Probe-guided fine-tuning achieves better safety-utility trade-offs than DPO and inference-time steering, while being substantially more robust against jailbreak and abliteration attacks. Moreover, the concepts stay linearly encoded after fine-tuning, meaning oversight is not lost by our method. Training against probes thus offers a way to shape what models represent rather than only what they output, which may become increasingly important as models get better at making their outputs look aligned.
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All authors Lena Libon, Alexander Panfilov, Ben Rank, Xin Chen, Jonas Geiping, Maksym Andriushchenko

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CE

SHIFT-Truck: A High-Fidelity Aerodynamics Dataset and Benchmark for Pickup Trucks

Pickup trucks account for 14% of new light-duty vehicles produced in the United States, yet are among the least aerodynamic. Their open cargo bed adds a flow absent from existing automotive aerodynamics datasets such as DrivAerML and SHIFT-SUV: the shear layer leaving the cab roof passes over a recirculating bed flow before separating again at the tailgate. The resulting drag lowers fuel efficiency, raises emissions and limits the range of electric trucks. Scale-resolved Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is too costly for broad design exploration; neural surrogates can predict flow features at a fraction of that cost, provided they are trained on large-scale, high-fidelity, domain-specific data. We introduce SHIFT-Truck, the first such dataset for pickup trucks. It comprises 1,000 Spalart-Allmaras delayed detached-eddy simulations (SA-DDES) of a reference pickup geometry morphed across 17 shape parameters. Each case is run on a mesh of about 100 million cells at a Reynolds number of $1.4 \times 10^7$ and released with time-averaged surface pressure, wall shear stress, volumetric pressure and velocity. The setup is verified by grid refinement and repeated runs, and checked against wind-tunnel measurements. We define geometry-grouped splits and benchmark four neural surrogates, DoMINO, GeoTransolver, AB-UPT and SMART, on surface and volume tracks. SHIFT-Truck also introduces controlled distribution shifts in the operating point, the input surface discretization and the vehicle archetype. Models with strong in-distribution performance can degrade substantially under these shifts: operating-condition changes expose failures to infer speed dependence, while tessellation and cross-vehicle shifts reveal markedly different robustness across architectures. SHIFT-Truck is thus a benchmark not only for surrogate accuracy but also for generalization across physical and numerical distributions.
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All authors Riddhiman Raut, Yin Yu, Aashwin Anand Mishra, Michael Emory, Thomas Economon, Peter Lyu, Juan J. Alonso

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

STEPS: Scene Text Editing with Preserved Style Using Diffusion and Contrastive Style Encoding

We introduce Scene Text Editing with Preserved Style (STEPS), a novel diffusion model architecture for quality text replacement in images. Scene Text Editing (STE), also known as Visual Text Editing, consists of changing the textual content in an image while conserving the original style, e.g. font, colors, orientation, background, etc. STEPS advances the state of the art in STE through directed focus on improved style preservation. We introduce a style encoder for visual text that captures style independently of textual content, and a model architecture that combines the style encoder with multiple semantic conditions (target text characters encoding and rendered glyphs). STEPS achieves superior results to previous STE methods in style preservation, output readability, and subjective quality.
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All authors Nicolas Thiebaut, Nameer Hirschkind, Xiao Yu, Kyle Spence

Machine Learning

Proper Scoring Rule-based Diffusion for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

Recent probabilistic weather forecasters train stochastic predictors with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to generate each ensemble member in a single forward pass. These models learn the predictive distribution from the forecast context alone, which becomes difficult at longer forecast horizons where uncertainty is high. To learn the predictive distribution more effectively, we introduce auxiliary conditional denoising tasks that predict the same future state from the context and its corrupted version, which provides partial future information that can reduce prediction ambiguity. Building on distributional diffusion models, we learn the conditional distributions of these tasks with a single stochastic predictor by minimizing a proper scoring rule across noise levels. At inference, the predictor can still generate each ensemble member in a single forward pass at the fully corrupted endpoint. Standard CRPS training is recovered as the endpoint-only special case of our formulation, so our framework extends existing CRPS-based forecasters with only additional conditioning inputs. Controlled experiments show that the auxiliary tasks improve one-step forecasting across architectures, with larger gains at longer forecast horizons. The gains extend to high-dimensional global weather forecasting under both training from scratch and fine-tuning, along with improved calibration and potential benefits for generalization under distribution shift.
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All authors Joonhyeong Park, Giung Nam, Hyungi Lee, Kyunghyun Cho, Byoungwoo Park, Juho Lee

Machine Learning

Interpretable but Fragile? Robustness of Concept Bottlenecks under Geometric-Semantic Perturbations

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) are designed to provide interpretable intermediate representations, yet how such bottlenecks affect robustness remains unclear, with existing studies reporting mixed and sometimes contradictory findings. We argue that these discrepancies arise from conflating different robustness notions and perturbation regimes, rather than from fundamental disagreements about CBMs themselves. To disentangle these factors, we introduce a generator-based evaluation framework that enables controlled comparisons between standard classifiers and CBMs under two distinct perturbation types: continuous geometric perturbations in latent space and discrete semantic interventions in concept space. Within this framework, we evaluate robustness both empirically, via prediction and concept-level sensitivity metrics, and certifiably, using randomized smoothing in latent and concept spaces. Across experiments, we reconcile previously conflicting findings by clarifying when, and in what sense, concept bottlenecks do or do not improve robustness. By further analyzing robustness under varying task conditions, including class semantic similarity and concept vocabulary size, we show that interpretability does not inherently confer robustness. Instead, concept bottlenecks shift where and how sensitivity manifests, revealing a nuanced interpretability robustness trade off that depends critically on the perturbation regime and task structure. Together, our results show that interpretability and robustness are distinct objectives: interpretable intermediate representations do not uniformly improve robustness, but instead redistribute sensitivity across perturbation spaces and model families.
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All authors Hanwei Zhang, Tianma Hu, Gaojie Jin, Xu Cheng, Ronghui Mu

Machine Learning

Geometry-physics confounding impairs PDE learning across varying domains

Learning partial differential equation (PDE) dynamics across varying domains is central to predictive modelling and data-driven discovery of governing equations. However, geometric variation alters both field representation and the governing differential operators, confounding geometric effects with intrinsic physical properties in the observed dynamics. This work identifies geometry-physics confounding as a unified failure mechanism for PDE learning across varying domains. In forward operator learning, this confounding increases the burden of inferring geometry-dependent operator changes from finite data, reducing data efficiency and generalisation. In equation discovery, omitting geometry-induced operators misspecifies the candidate library, leading to biased parameters, missed governing terms and spurious terms. We propose a de-confounding framework that makes the known geometry-to-operator transformation explicit. Geometry-induced coefficient fields improve prediction and data efficiency across five operator-learning benchmarks, while geometry-complete candidate libraries recover the generating equations and reduce held-out PDE residuals by more than two orders of magnitude in both evolving-domain systems. By separating known geometric action from intrinsic physics, the proposed framework supports more reliable and data-efficient PDE learning across scientific and engineering problems with varying geometries.
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All authors Yinghao Cheng, Gengxiang Chen, Xu Liu, Qinglu Meng, Yixin Jing, Xiangguo Tang, Wenping Mou, Lihui Wang, Yingguang Li

Machine Learning

Differentiable Structure Learning for Cyclic Linear Gaussian Models with Latent Confounders

We study causal structure learning from observational data in linear Gaussian structural causal models in the presence of directed cycles and an unknown number of exogenous latent confounders, bounded by a given maximum. We derive the covariance of the observed variables and introduce marginal quasi-equivalence, which characterizes when different causal models share a full-dimensional subset of the observational distributions they can generate. We formulate structure learning as minimization of the Gaussian negative log-likelihood with a logarithmically scaled complexity penalty that counts directed edges and latent variables. For a fixed number of observed variables and a fixed upper bound on latent variables, we establish consistency of global score minimizers up to marginal quasi-equivalence under algebraic faithfulness, structural minimality, and model-overlap assumptions. We parameterize the inclusion of directed edges and candidate latent variables using Bernoulli gates, whose continuous probabilities are optimized jointly with the structural coefficients. Averaging the penalized negative log-likelihood over these gates yields an objective with a closed-form differentiable complexity penalty. We prove that this expected objective has the same global infimum as the corresponding discrete structure-learning objective. Experimental results show that our approach achieves lower recovery error than previous methods in several experimental settings.
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All authors Sadegh Khorasani, Ali Najar, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Correcting WHERE, Preserving HOW: Compositional Generalization for Vision-Language-Action Models via Referential Guidance

While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable flexible action generation, their generalization across diverse environmental elements, including manipulated objects, destinations, and backgrounds, is limited by the lack of diversity in robotic training data. Trained end-to-end on such data, VLAs tend to exploit visual shortcuts, associating actions with task-irrelevant visual features rather than the intended task semantics. These shortcuts block recomposition of elements already seen by the policy, that is, compositional generalization. Existing approaches mitigate such entanglement through task-relevant perception or targeted data diversification, but offer no explicit mechanism for unseen recomposition and require backbone-specific modifications with retraining. We observe that under such recomposition, VLAs often fail at global grounding while retaining local manipulation skills that recover near the correct target in familiar configurations. Therefore, we propose Referential Guidance (ReGuide), a training-free wrapper that, given object poses from a grounding module, combines semantic and geometric rebinding to guide the end-effector into demonstration-supported configurations of the instructed referent, where the frozen policy can resume execution. Experiments in simulation across multiple VLA backbones as well as on a real robot show that ReGuide improves success rates under compositional shifts by up to 56.8 and 75.0 percentage points, respectively, while preserving standard-task performance.
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All authors Yanyan Zhang, Disheng Liu, Xinpeng Li, Chaoda Song, Mohsen Hariri, Debargha Ganguly, Wang Yang, Kai Ye, Bryce Grant, Vipin Chaudhary, Yu Yin

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

Methodological Changes to the Attention ResUNet Hourly Precipitation Postprocessor

This note is a technical companion to a previously published preprint describing an Attention Residual U-Net that postprocesses deterministic forecasts from The Weather Company's Global and Regional Atmospheric Forecast (GRAF) model into probabilistic hourly precipitation forecasts. It documents what has changed in that method since publication. Feature-wise Linear Modulation conditioning on calendar season and forecast lead time is used to produce a single trained model for each season, replacing 192 separately trained per-month, per-lead checkpoints. Lead time is extended from 48 to 72 h. Two new input channels are used, per-pixel local solar hour and a static, monthly-varying precipitation climatology. During verification, the climatological reference against which the Brier Skill Score is computed now has an added diurnal dimension, on top of the monthly resolution it already had. Brier Skill Score and reliability are compared between the new vs. the previous training. Forecasts generated with the new training show a modest, consistent improvement of the current training over the original.
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Machine Learning

Learning-Enabled Estimation: Tight Characterizations under Sample Selection Biases

When can we learn from biased samples? We study regression when outcomes are observed only after passing through selection filters that depend on both covariates and outcomes themselves, a ubiquitous challenge spanning clinical trials with patient dropout, labor markets with self-selection, and auctions with strategic entry. Ignoring such selection yields systematically biased conclusions with real-world consequences. This challenge has a long history in econometrics and statistics, starting with Heckman's seminal two-stage model and followed by numerous generalizations. While these works provide various sufficient conditions for identification, a complete characterization of when such regression is possible has remained elusive. In this work, we provide a characterization for when regression is possible in the presence of sample selection bias. Our results establish the minimal assumptions required on the functional forms of selection processes under which regression remains possible, which are particularly relevant in modern settings where selection mechanisms are increasingly complex and opaque. As a corollary of our characterization, we show that there are settings where the regression function can be identified even when the selection filter itself cannot. This observation already goes beyond the “estimate selection filter, then debias regression” paradigm that is followed by virtually all existing approaches. Under natural strengthenings of our identification conditions, we also establish finite-sample estimation guarantees with explicit convergence rates and provide oracle-efficient algorithms. This yields the first general-purpose estimation method for this broad class of selection problems. Finally, we explore the implications of our results for several well-studied econometric settings with complex selection mechanisms such as auctions with entry costs and labor markets.
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All authors Vikram Kher, Jane H. Lee, Anay Mehrotra, Manolis Zampetakis

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Beyond Oracle Communication: Benchmarking Interactive Intent Alignment Under Miscommunication and Evolving User Intent

Modern LLM agents increasingly tackle complex tasks through interactive, long-horizon exchanges with users, while existing benchmarks generally assume that users always accurately and sufficiently communicate a fixed intent. However, this oracle communication assumption rarely holds in practice: users may miscommunicate, change their goals, and run out of patience. We define this task setting as Interactive Intent Alignment, where agents must recover and continuously track the user's current intent despite imperfect communication and evolving goals. To study this setting, we introduce Drift-Bench++, a principled benchmark construction pipeline for verified executable tasks with controlled misalignment and intent shifts, along with an interaction protocol featuring finite patience, diverse simulated users, and silent interaction-conditioned shifts. We further develop GRIP, a comprehensive evaluation protocol covering task grounding, user realism, inquiry effectiveness, and adaptation to evolving intent. Across diverse environments, models, and interaction conditions, stronger interaction consistently helps but remains far from oracle performance; Validation on deployed ProdAgent sessions further shows that the modeled failures are prevalent and consequential in deployment. By providing a unified, executable benchmark for interactive intent alignment, Drift-Bench++ offers a foundation for evaluating and advancing agents under realistic communication and evolving intent.
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All authors Zheyuan Zhang, Mengyuan Chao, Ke Xiao, Ziyi Chen, Daoan Zhang, Yan Zhang, Yanfang Ye, Wei Xu

Machine Learning

JARQ: Joint Alternating Refinement for Quantization

Group-wise post-training quantizers for large language models round weights onto a grid that is not refit to the resulting integer codes. We show that this leaves accuracy on the table: the best grid depends on the codes, input correlations couple the errors of different groups, and useful code changes often involve many codes at once. We propose JARQ , a plug-in refinement that starts from any group-wise quantizer and alternates a joint least-squares fit of all group scales with bounded Babai proposals that move many codes of a group together on the current grid. The problem is a bilinear box-constrained mixed-integer least-squares problem; the solver is backpropagation-free, does not increase the layer-wise objective under exact scale solves, and keeps the host's bit width, groups, zero points, and inference cost. Across Llama-2, Llama-3, and Qwen models with RTN, GPTQ, OmniQuant, and AWQ hosts, JARQ lowers perplexity in 90 of 96 comparisons, cuts three-bit RTN perplexity by up to 36%, raises mean multiple-choice accuracy in 23 of 24 configurations, and improves QEP, QuaRot, and OJBKQ outputs, at under a minute per 7B block.
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Machine Learning

Reinforcement Learning with Complex (valued) Memories

Partially observable environments pose a fundamental challenge in deep reinforcement learning, requiring agents to compress temporal information from observations and maintain a memory to make effective decisions. While there exist many approaches ranging from gated recurrence to attention mechanisms and model-based RL, the search for effective representational techniques that can capture long-term dependencies remains an active area of research. In this work we revisit Unitary recurrent networks (uRNNs) [Arjovsky et al., 2016, Jing et al., 2017], that demonstrated superior gradient flow and associative recall, expressing the recurrence and the hidden state in a complex vector space. Their norm preserving unitary dynamics enable information propagation through long sequences. To this end, we propose three different versions of uRNNs as drop-in replacements for recurrent PPO architectures, and demonstrate that the simple recurrence and the added degree of freedom from the phase of the complex representations enable significant gains over baselines on several memory-improvable tasks, including continuous control. We further explore how to preserve the phase information of the complex hidden state for a phase-aware policy by drawing a parallel to how quantum states are measured. With our methods reaching up to 2-3 $\times$ the reward in environments like rocksample and Craftax compared to the baselines, this work points towards an exciting new direction of representations for RL and the problem of partial observability. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sathya98/qurl
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Machine Learning

NeurDuo-EEG: A Long-Sequence EEG Foundation Model with Persistent State and Explicit Memory

Electroencephalography (EEG) is recorded continuously over hours, with relevant dynamics spanning timescales from milliseconds to hours. Most EEG foundation models nevertheless process fixed windows independently, limiting their ability to capture information encoded in long-timescale dynamics. State-space architectures enable persistent recurrent processing, but long-range information remains implicitly compressed in recurrent states. We present NeurDuo-EEG, a causal EEG foundation model with channel-resolved persistent memory. NeurDuo-EEG introduces multi-timescale memory management with learned consolidation and selective retrieval, enabling persistent modelling of continuous EEG with fixed-size state. It is pre-trained on 3,955 hours of EEG from 17 public datasets using multichannel autoregressive prediction of discrete spectral codes. Across three short-window and two long-sequence downstream tasks, NeurDuo-EEG achieves the best performance on four of five benchmarks, including all three short-window tasks and seizure detection, where AUC-PR improves from $0.285$ to $0.471$ over the strongest non-NeurDuo baseline. NeurDuo-EEG also remains competitive on sleep staging and supports efficient streaming inference, with nearly constant per-chunk latency as the available history grows to one hour. Notably, the Small variant achieves this with only 4.7M backbone parameters. These results demonstrate the value of persistent, multi-timescale modelling for both long-sequence and short-window EEG analysis. Our code is available at https://github.com/YifaNNW/NeurDuo-EEG.
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All authors Yifan Wang, Haiping Liu, Yang Cui, Wenhao Cai, Shuhang Li, Xiaoyang Huang, Xianyang Liu, Jingyu Sun, Yizheng Sun, Cunhang Fan, Tianming Du, Jiancheng Yang, Zhenhong Li, Yunhao Zhang, Hongpeng Zhou, Jingyuan Sun

Machine Learning

FlexRouter: Learning Complementary Model Sets for Flexible LLM Routing

Existing Large Language Model (LLM) routing methods score LLMs independently to select top-$k$ models. However, this ignores model correlations and enforces a rigid computational budget. Consequently, routers often select redundant models that share failure modes, limiting the overall probability of success. To address this, we propose FlexRouter, a routing framework that explicitly models model complementarity. FlexRouter optimizes for answer coverage, maximizing the probability that at least one selected model yields a correct response. This objective aligns with practical inference pipelines where multiple candidate outputs are generated and a downstream verifier or user selects the final one. We formulate routing as a coverage-oriented subset selection problem and model the routing policy using Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), which naturally capture both model competence and redundancy. To directly optimize coverage without requiring a ground-truth target subset, we introduce a training objective based on marginalizing over failure sets. During inference, we employ a greedy strategy based on marginal log-determinant gains, enabling the router to adaptively determine subset sizes without a predefined budget. Extensive experiments on the large-scale RouterEval benchmark demonstrate that our proposed FlexRouter achieves higher coverage with lower redundancy across both in-domain and out-of-domain tasks than strong baselines while maintaining flexible inference cost.
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All authors Wang Wei, Harry Yang, Tiankai Yang, Samyadeep Basu, Hongjie Chen, Andy Zhao, Franck Dernoncourt, Ryan A. Rossi, Hoda Eldardiry

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Conditional Generation of Creative Chess Puzzles with Diffusion Models

While modern language models demonstrate impressive generative capabilities, they often struggle with constrained, counter-intuitive creative tasks. To address this limitation, we explore chess puzzle generation as a rigorous testbed for computational creativity and reasoning, a domain where altering a single piece can invalidate an entire solution. We propose a novel approach for conditional generation of creative chess puzzles using masked diffusion models. Unlike previous methods, our non-directional diffusion approach allows for conditioning on specific tactical themes and partial board positions. We introduce a novel auxiliary task of simultaneous best-move prediction, which improves solution uniqueness by 11.6% and theme-conditioning accuracy by 2.5%. To further optimize solution uniqueness and theme conditioning, we establish a reinforcement learning framework adapted from Denoising Diffusion Policy Optimization (DDPO). This RL training increases the yield of unique and theme-matching positions by 89.1%. Finally, we release the first open-weights models (Appendix B) for chess puzzle generation, offering a new pathway for controllable, creative generation.
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All authors Aatu Selkee, Severi Rissanen, Xidong Feng, Tom Zahavy, Eric Malmi

Machine Learning

The Advantages of Fresh Sketching for Ridge Regression

Over the past 25 years, sketching and sampling have become widely used tools for accelerating large-scale regression. In iterative randomized solvers, a basic design choice is whether to $\textit{reuse}$ the same sketch or draw $\textit{fresh}$ randomness at every step. For (under-constrained) iterative ridge regression with column sampling, whether fresh sketches offer provable advantages has remained open: $\textit{We show that they do.}$ Fresh sketching lets us analyze error only along the current residual solution, rather than uniformly over the entire Gram matrix. This directional view yields sharper convergence guarantees for leverage score and ridge leverage score sampling and, more importantly, leads to residual-aware sampling rules. By minimizing the variance of the relevant sketched matrix-vector product, we derive an oracle distribution and practical approximations to the oracle distribution, including a mixture sampling distribution with (somewhat weaker) convergence guarantees. Experiments on synthetic and real data, including ridge probes on Qwen2.5 representations, support our theory, showing substantially faster convergence.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Parameter-Free Zeroth-Order Optimization with Ellipsoidal Sampling

Zeroth-order optimization methods are essential for solving black-box problems where gradient information is unavailable or expensive to compute. This paper presents POEM-ES, a novel parameter-free stochastic zeroth-order algorithm that extends the recent POEM method by integrating subspace preconditioning with ellipsoidal randomized sampling. In contrast to traditional zeroth-order approaches that rely on isotropic random directions, POEM-ES performs anisotropic sampling guided by a fixed structural symmetric positive semi-definite (SPSD) preconditioner $\hat{\Sigma}$ that encodes the underlying low-dimensional geometry. Under a standard structural spectral normalization where $\lambda_{\max}(\hat{\Sigma}) = 1$, we introduce the use of the empirical effective dimension $d^* = \operatorname{tr}(\hat{\Sigma})$, which reflects the intrinsic dimensionality of the problem and guides both the sampling and randomized smoothing parameter schedules. In practice, such a preconditioner can be effectively obtained via pilot sampling, historical trajectories, or domain-specific expert knowledge. We prove that POEM-ES achieves a dimension-reduced convergence rate under low-rank structural assumptions, requiring only $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left( \frac{\left( r^2 \kappa(\hat{\Sigma}) + d^* \right) L^2 D_{\mathcal{X}}^2}{\varepsilon^2} \right)$ stochastic zeroth-order oracle queries. The method remains fully parameter-free and demonstrates significant improvements over the original POEM in problems with low-rank structure where $d^* \ll d$. Numerical experiments on hinge-loss binary classification tasks using LibSVM datasets confirm the practical superiority of the proposed approach.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.HC

Fairness Theatre: Evaluating Post-Hoc Fairness Interventions in Vendor-Controlled Early Warning Systems

Public institutions increasingly procure AI systems whose design they cannot inspect or change. In higher education, proprietary Early Warning Systems (EWS) leave colleges with few options beyond adjusting model outputs to address inequity. This raises the question of how fairness work is coordinated among vendors, institutions, advisors, and students with unequal power to change these systems? Using student records from a public college in Ontario, Canada, we evaluate six post-hoc fairness interventions on a research EWS under simulated procurement constraints. We compare fairness, accuracy, and demographic disparities, introducing error-type profiling to trace how interventions redistribute false positives and false negatives. Interventions redistributed disparities without consistently reducing them. Two implementations favored already-advantaged groups because they used group size to define disadvantage; small, marginalized groups remained poorly served. These findings show how procurement constraints and implementation choices shape the possibilities for fairness work. We call the resulting condition fairness theatre; dashboard metrics converge while groups' error burdens persist or worsen.
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All authors Kelly McConvey, Angelina Zhai, Rebecca Li, Shion Guha