Papers

Defining a weighted mean over probability measures under probability metrics is a central tool in probabilistic machine learning. Under the Wasserstein metric, these are called Wasserstein barycenters. While most approaches compute barycenters for a fixed weight vector, approximating the whole family of barycenters over the simplex, which we call the Wasserstein simplex, remains underexplored. We refer to this problem as Universal Barycenter Approximation, and propose BaryFM, a flow matching model transporting the marginal measures into any barycenter in the Wasserstein simplex. Once trained, the network can draw samples from measures in the Wasserstein simplex through an ordinary differential equation. We validate our method on 4 downstream tasks: domain adaptation, generalization, Bayesian posterior aggregation and algorithmic fairness. BaryFM achieves the best average rank among 15 competing methods across 10 domain adaptation benchmarks, matching or surpassing non-universal solvers.

Machine-learning signals built from financial text treat what institutions say, and what the media repeat, as evidence about value. But whoever shapes a narrative may be trading against it. We study markets with three observable voices: institutional statements (Say), media repetition (Echo) and revealed positioning (Do). We ask when words should be followed and when they should be faded. In a linear-quadratic model of an informed institution that speaks and trades before a partly credulous crowd, talking an asset down while buying it is optimal exactly when $\varphi^2<2\lambda k<\varphi$. A distribution-free identity then shows that when the observable Say-Do covariance is negative, words carry negative predictive content and should be faded. For measurement, we derive (i) an exact factorised posterior over which articles are echoes, combining arrival times with embedding similarity; (ii) a return-aligned contrastive objective that attains its bound exactly when squared embedding distances are an increasing affine function of squared outcome distances, with the tightest loss-based certificate of which neighbour rankings survive imperfect training; and (iii) a path-signature statistic for who moved first. In a controlled market with known ground truth, echo sentiment predicts returns with a significantly negative sign in all 29 simulated markets, the rolling Say-Do correlation flags false-alarm events with an AUC of 0.90, and return-aligned embeddings organise headlines by consequence rather than topic. We also report where the tools fail.

Constantly evolving real-world knowledge necessitates models to be updated continuously. Especially in medicine, as clinical evidence changes over time, outdated knowledge can pose safety risks. Existing evaluations of knowledge integration focus on factual recall, offering limited insight into whether newly integrated knowledge is actually usable. Our benchmark MedKIT (Medical Knowledge Integration and Transfer) provides a granular evaluation of how models integrate and apply knowledge under realistic sequences of clinical updates. Each instance corresponds to a factual update derived from clinical evidence, paired with targeted probes that assess transfer across lexical variation, relational transformations, compositional reasoning, and open-ended operationalization, as well as locality tests for knowledge preservation. Using MedKIT, we conduct a large-scale empirical study of 12 knowledge integration strategies across 5 diverse models, including both general-purpose and medical LLMs. Our results reveal a consistent gap between recall and usable knowledge: while most methods achieve strong gains on the original update task and under lexical variation, relational generalization is limited, and no method yields meaningful improvements on compositional or operational tasks. These findings highlight a fundamental challenge in knowledge integration and position MedKIT as a testbed for developing methods that make newly integrated knowledge more consistently usable across tasks and contexts.

A valid curvature upper bound need not justify either a robustness certificate or an intervention on an intrinsic predictor property. We demonstrate this distinction for a last-layer relative-flatness proxy used in both settings. First, empirical-risk stationarity does not eliminate pointwise first-order loss terms: at a finite global empirical-risk minimum, the retained certificate expression underestimates a loss increase by over $210\times$. We derive a globally valid, gauge-invariant feature-space repair. Second, common-row softmax shifts preserve predictions and the exact contraction while making the proxy unbounded. Even standard reference-class choices double it on average relative to the centered representation. For a single fixed-feature example with at least three classes, scalar retuning generically cannot align the induced probability updates. Row centering gives the orbit-minimized bound and restores value and full-model gradient invariance under this symmetry. Across 45 paired one-step tests on algorithmic and image models, amplified shifts separate raw-regularized predictors while quotient-regularized predictors remain aligned. Long-horizon CIFAR-10 experiments show substantial, reversible suppression of generalization, while evidence for selective delay after memorization is less consistent. Together, these results show that validity as a curvature upper bound does not by itself justify either inversion into a robustness certificate or differentiation into an intrinsic training intervention.

Random splitting can yield non-independent train–test subsets when a dataset contains related samples, as is common in certain applications such as biochemical studies. This leads to overly optimistic generalization estimates. Here, we introduce ReLaG, a modality-agnostic framework that models sample relatedness through a hierarchical latent-variable process and infers groups of related samples using proximity graphs and community detection to produce independent train–test subsets. Across molecular and protein datasets, ReLaG matches existing relation-aware methods while scaling substantially better, enabling splits at previously impractical dataset sizes. We further introduce a label-free procedure that adapts the splitting resolution to production data, aligning evaluation with the intended deployment setting. ReLaG's inferred groups provide a cheap estimate of effective dataset size, enabling diversity-aware dataset scaling. ReLaG is open source and can be installed with pip install relag.

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) promise to break the sequential latency bottleneck of autoregressive agents through parallel decoding, but recent evaluations show this efficiency does not transfer to embodied agentic competence: dLLM-backed agents repeatedly fall into retry loops, re-issuing an action long after it has failed. We give a mechanistic account of this failure and a training-free remedy. We trace the retry loop to the adaptivity of masked decoding: the sampler commits the positions it is most confident about and defers the uncertain ones, and at a failure state the context already offers a confident fill for the deferred decision, i.e. the failed action itself, so the retry is committed without the failure feedback ever being confronted. We model the resulting distortion of the action distribution as a task-blind corruption: contextually salient actions (e.g., the action just taken) receive inflated probability by a factor that depends on the state and the action but not on the task. Under this model, we analyse an invariance proposition: the task-blind factor cancels exactly from the reverse conditional, i.e. the likelihood of the task given the state and a candidate action, which coincides with the task posterior of an idealized uncorrupted model. Masked dLLMs evaluate the reverse conditional natively, unlike autoregressive models, by masking the task tokens and denoising, at the cost of a few parallel passes per candidate. We instantiate the rule as Reflect Reverse and evaluate it on four multi-turn embodied benchmarks, where it improves task success and progression rates over forward-scoring baselines.

Language models increasingly use architectures that vary attention span and positional encoding across layers, such as applying RoPE with sliding-window attention and NoPE with global attention (SWA NoPE). However, how these choices shape in-context retrieval remains unclear. To study this question, we take a mechanistic view, tracing how positional encoding (PE) choice shapes the internal mechanisms models use for in-context retrieval. Across 22 open-weight models spanning eight families, we find that standard RoPE models rely primarily on positional retrieval, while PE hybrids shift toward semantic retrieval. We further show on a controlled pre-training ablation that confining positional encoding to local layers produces this semantic shift, degrading representations of positional information. Finally, we show that the reported long-context gains of PE hybrids mask a retrieval trade-off: SWA NoPE improves over RoPE on multiple-target retrieval and QA, but degrades when distinguishing competing keys. We show that these behavioral differences better track the mechanism shift from positional toward semantic mechanisms than a uniform improvement in long-context retrieval.

Scaling laws for optimization against reward models in AI alignment have pinned down how performance depends on optimization effort—measured by a KL-divergence budget relative to a reference policy. Beyond a certain budget, over-optimization (or reward hacking) can arise: because we optimize against a proxy reward model (distinct from true rewards), performance can plateau or degrade. Naturally, the proxy reward's accuracy depends on how much preference data (often in the form of pairwise comparisons) was used to train it. However, existing research does not cleanly identify how performance jointly scales with the amount of training data and the divergence budget. Our main contribution is to provide an empirically accurate and theoretically grounded scaling law in such context. Performance roughly scales as $\Theta(\sqrt{\min\{\log(M),K\}})$, where $M$ is the number of comparisons in training data and $K$ is the policy's divergence budget. We develop an information-theoretic model to establish this upper bound and prove it is tightly achievable through a constructive procedure. Informed by this, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations using a real-world annotation setup, whereby a large 70B gold reward model generates feedback data and proxy reward models are trained from less capable models (0.6B to 4B). Our scaling law provides an excellent fit (R2 from 97% to 99%), outperforms alternative specifications, and remains robust across model sizes, noise, and optimization procedures (best-of-$N$ or policy tilting). Our evidence suggests that reward optimization is analogous to a surprisingly simple selection task: choosing from a sequence of IID Gaussian random variables using noisy preference feedback.

We consider estimating the one-step-ahead conditional distribution of a multivariate stochastic process. Many existing approaches rely on assumptions such as finite-range memory, sparsity, or additivity, which can be poorly suited to processes with long-range nonlinear interactions. However, without such structural assumptions, nonparametric estimation is challenging due to the curse of dimensionality. To address this challenge, we introduce a new estimation approach based on the predictive states of a process, possibly with infinite-range memory. We show that our estimator achieves fast convergence rates when the past history can be compressed into a low-dimensional statistic that is sufficient for predicting the future. Specifically, we show that the statistical complexity of the estimation problem is determined by the intrinsic dimension of the predictive state space. We establish guarantees for an instantiation of our method based on deep neural network estimators, and we support these theoretical results with experiments.

Financial forecasting from earnings conference calls requires models to reason over complex corporate disclosures, market expectations, and subtle communication signals. However, existing financial benchmarks are often limited to unimodal inputs or single-task settings, making it difficult to evaluate whether multimodal large language models (LLMs) can support real-world financial analysis. In this paper, we introduce MM-FinEval, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate multimodal LLMs across multiple financial tasks. MM-FinEval spans a diverse timeline from 2019 to 2022. The entire proposed dataset contains 2,045 S&P 500 conference earning calls as inputs and 12 financial task labels as outputs. Each input contains three modalities: a word-to-word text transcript of the earning call, the corresponding presentation slides used during the call, and the entire audio recording. To establish a rigorous evaluation framework, we analyze 19 baseline models across three distinct model categories: Image-Text, Audio-Text, and Any-to-Any configurations. We observe that small-size Any-to-Any models processing all three modalities achieve strong performance, even when compared against larger proprietary models restricted to two-modality inputs. This indicates that our tri-modal dataset design introduces useful, non-redundant information. These results validate that text, audio, and visual data serve as important, complementary signals that mimic the decision-making process of expert human analysts.

We introduce ShamAN-Q, a sub-1-bit post-training quantization method that extends NanoQuant by replacing each its diagonal reconstruction geometry with a tractable dense curvature metric, using a general paradigm popularized by the Shampoo optimizer. For each linear weight, ShamAN-Q fits a Kronecker product to the empirical Fisher information matrix of a small calibration set by Kullback–Leibler minimization, forming a Mahalanobis reconstruction loss from the result. The continuous ADMM updates from NanoQuant become solutions to Sylvester equations, while its discrete projection and deployment format remain unchanged. Because the curvature is local to a given set of weights, ShamAN-Q re-measures the input curvature statistic for each layer immediately before layer factorization, periodically refreshing all statistics on the partially quantized model. ShamAN-Q also redistributes the uniform rank from NanoQuant across layers at the same total number of bits. On Qwen3-Base, ShamAN-Q lowers WikiText-2 perplexity at $\approx$1 bpw from 27.56 to 22.96 (0.6B), 19.21 to 16.72 (1.7B), and 14.29 to 13.80 (4B) while matching or improving zero-shot accuracy on the Eleuther LM Evaluation Harness. On 0.6B, ShamAN-Q at $\approx$0.8 bpw matches the published perplexity of NanoQuant at $\approx$1.0 bpw.

Egocentric gaze prediction enables many downstream applications but remains challenging, as human gaze is inherently stochastic. This stochasticity is constrained by structured temporal dynamics alternating between fixations and saccades, top-down influences from tasks, and bottom-up visual saliency. Based on this observation, we introduce GazeFlow, a framework that directly models gaze as a joint distribution of temporal gaze positions conditioned upon both top-down and bottom-up information. In particular, GazeFlow uses conditional flow matching (CFM): a learned velocity field iteratively transports a Gaussian noise sample into a plausible gaze trajectory drawn from this joint distribution. The velocity field is conditioned on bottom-up visual features extracted by a video encoder and on top-down task information obtained by globally querying these features. On standard datasets, GazeFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance on per-frame metrics, and the generated trajectories align better with human gaze temporal dynamics.

Lower error from a text-conditioned neural surrogate does not, by itself, show that the model uses the meaning of the text. We examine this attribution problem with OperatorCLIP, comparing an unconditioned FNO, a constant-sentence FiLM control, and a fixed task description trained with contrastive alignment. Three-seed experiments cover Darcy2D, ShallowWater2D, and three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes (CNS3D). Constant conditioning has lower mean test error on both 2D tasks. Relative to this control, task text plus alignment has a similar mean on ShallowWater2D and CNS3D and a higher mean on Darcy2D; these descriptive comparisons have substantial seed uncertainty. The latter comparison changes both prompt content and loss, so it isolates neither effect. The text encoder is trained from scratch, and each conditioned model sees only one description during training. In this regime, pairwise InfoNCE cannot identify matched pairs and has minimum $\log B$. Prompt interventions show no reliable semantic ordering. This methodological caution demonstrates why pathway controls are needed; it neither establishes semantic competence of the encoder nor tests the effectiveness of text under varying physical context.

Large language models (LLMs) can now improve themselves by revising the instructions they follow, and LLM agents are increasingly orchestrated to work together on complex problems. However, self-improvement methods typically optimize one system at a time, and multi-agent frameworks often have every model work toward a shared goal. We ask a different question. When each agent pursues its own reward, can self-improving LLMs learn from one another well enough to improve the whole population? We call this capability recursive social improvement. We study populations that revise skill files and choose whether, when, and whom to copy from. Independent search, learning from peers, and acting all share one token budget. In controlled environments, established social-learning algorithms benefit from peers, but three LLMs do not. They earn less reward per token than solo learners, and explore too narrowly or run out of tokens before acting. We then let the models write and revise their own skills. Observing peers changes how they improve, helping one model find useful skills sooner and another spend less on private search. Neither, however, outperforms independent learners at the same cost. Skills are copied, revised, and passed on, so one discovery can seed further search. Yet these exchanges concentrate the population around fewer independent discoveries. Together, these results show that LLMs can make learning more efficient by copying from peers, but not yet more effective.

Tree-like branching structures are common in nature, from botanical trees to neurons, blood vessels and respiratory trees. Their branching shape often reflects function, making structural modelling central to understanding how these systems work. Because acquiring real-world 3D data is often expensive or infeasible, realistic generative models are valuable for simulation and data augmentation. Existing morphology-specific models either constrain how topology is generated or rely on hand-tuned, mechanistic procedures. Generic 3D graph generators, by contrast, do not exploit or enforce the structure of trees. We propose Autoregressive Frontier Expansion, a generative framework that constructs trees through an iterative expansion process, simulating the biological growth of real trees. At each step, a flow-matching model parameterised by an SO(2)-equivariant GNN expands the frontier by predicting whether each active branch bifurcates or terminates. We evaluate our method on cortical neurons and botanical trees in unconditional, class-conditioned, and morphology-guided generation. Across both domains, the generated morphologies agree closely with the reference distributions and, in conditional experiments, with the specified targets.

Clinical research in psychiatry increasingly relies on large scale collection of spoken language data to identify acoustic and linguistic biomarkers. Yet evolving consent and protocol requirements can oblige investigators to remove a designated speaker from multi-speaker recordings and to verify said removal at a scale infeasible for manual review of entire corpora. We study this verification problem for role-driven dyadic clinical dialogue in psychiatry and investigate it with two parallel, symmetric pipelines: confirming that clinician speech has been removed from psychiatric interview recordings, and confirming that patient speech has been removed from the same recordings. Each pipeline redacts the raw audio for its target role and then scans the surviving output with audio-language and large-language models to identify missed deletions. We evaluate this approach on a corpus of 48 dyadic recordings drawn from psychiatry settings, testing four open-weight models in an inference-only setting: Gemma-4-12B, Gemma-4-31B, Nemotron-3-Nano, and Nemotron-3-Nano-Omni. A disjunctive OR ensemble over fourteen model-view configurations had a combined F1 of 0.478 (precision 0.330, recall 0.870), an improvement over individual model estimates driven by recall gains that point to substantial complementarity across models and context views.

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) train image understanding and autoregressive image generation on shared parameters, and the two objectives are known to interfere. Existing diagnoses and remedies operate at the resolution of layers or experts, measuring conflict per layer and resolving it by separating parameters. We argue that this resolution hides an orthogonal axis. Generation in a UMM is next-token prediction over a raster sequence of visual tokens whose roles vary systematically with position, so how strongly a generation gradient interferes with understanding should depend on where in the sequence it originates. We introduce a position-resolved interference map that attributes understanding-generation gradient conflict to visual-token positions within every layer, computed from a single backward pass at $1.2\times$ the cost of a standard backward pass. On Show-o and Janus-Pro, position explains a large share of conflict variance after controlling for depth (partial $\eta^2=0.31$ vs. $0.35$ for layer on Show-o; $0.15$ vs. $0.30$ on Janus-Pro): the first quarter of the sequence has a mean gradient cosine of $-0.18$ against understanding, the last quarter $-0.02$. The dependence survives per-position gradient-norm normalization, retaining $80%$ of its effect size, and conflict strength tracks semantic content (Spearman $\rho=0.64$). Building on the map, we propose position-aware modulation (PAM), which removes the anti-aligned component of generation gradients only at high-conflict positions without changing the architecture. Under a matched trainable-parameter budget, PAM improves over layer-wise separation by $+21$ MME and $+2.4$ GenEval points on Show-o while matching it on POPE and overall FID; a random-position control recovers about $31%$ of the gain. Position-based and layer-based separation are complementary degrees of freedom and can be combined.

Retrosynthesis enables the discovery of viable synthetic routes to target molecules. It plays a central role in modern drug discovery and materials design. Retrosynthesis involves molecular graph transformations that can change both connectivity and graph size. These transformations may introduce reactant components absent from the target while revising the product-derived structure. To model these transformations, we propose RetroGEF, a flow-based generative model for single-step retrosynthesis. Starting from the target molecule, it constructs possible reactants by adding atoms and changing bonds in the molecular graph. RetroGEF models molecular transformations and changes in graph size within the same generative process, rather than relying on a fixed-size graph canvas. It learns this process directly from product–reactant pairs without requiring a prescribed edit order. Experiments on representative retrosynthesis benchmarks demonstrate that RetroGEF achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Large language models (LLMs) incur substantial storage, memory-bandwidth and energy costs, motivating compact weight representations. Existing seed-based compression methods reconstruct weights from compact pseudo-random representations but do not explicitly account for the non-uniform sensitivity of model weights. We introduce Seed-Q, a security-enhanced sensitivity-aware seed-based weight compression framework that uses lightweight Linear Feedback Shift Register (LFSR)-based weight generation with non-uniform bit allocation. Our approach assigns larger representation budgets to sensitive weights while aggressively compressing less sensitive regions. Importantly, this non-uniform allocation requires no side-information: the decoder deterministically reconstructs the bit-allocation schedule, with no rung depending on the decoded weights, eliminating the need to store per-block metadata or use calibration data while preserving the baseline coding rate. Experiments across diverse LLMs show that Seed-Q matches 4-bit perplexity of SeedLM with fewer bits, while at the same 4 bits/weight it reduces both perplexity degradation and zero-shot accuracy loss relative to SeedLM. We also show that Seed-Q simultaneously achieves high security against bit-flip attacks on model parameters, as bit corruption affects multiple reconstructed weights, greatly amplifying its impact and making it easier to detect. We further implement Seed-Q in an ASIC-based accelerator and demonstrate modest hardware overhead compared to prior seed-based approaches.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is now the standard way to ground Large Language Models (LLMs) in external knowledge, yet the design space of retrieval pipelines is large and the trade-offs between variants are not well understood, especially on domain-specific corpora at realistic scale. In this work, we present a controlled comparison of six retrieval strategies for scientific question answering: (i) classic top-k dense retrieval, (ii) LLM-based query rephrasing, (iii) query rephrasing followed by LLM-based reranking, (iv) multi-query fusion via Reciprocal Rank Fusion (RRF), (v) an agentic tool-call pipeline in which the generator decides for itself whether to retrieve, and (vi) late-interaction retrieval with ColBERTv2. All six pipelines share the same generator (Meta-Llama/Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct), prompt, and evaluation protocol; the five single-vector pipelines additionally share SPECTER2 embeddings and a Chroma vector store; and all six retrieve from the full corpus of 463,971 arXiv papers dated 2024-2025. To support reproducible, large-scale evaluation, we also release a synthetic question dataset of 19,484 problem-statement and methodology questions generated by Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct from a random sample of 10,000 papers across academic domains (query generation succeeded for 9,742 of them), and every strategy is evaluated on this same query set. We describe the architecture and implementation of each pipeline, release the code and the synthetic question dataset, and evaluate each strategy with an LLM-as-a-judge protocol along multiple quality dimensions, together with direct gold-paper retrieval metrics. The result is an open testbed for studying the cost and quality trade-offs of RAG design choices on a research-literature corpus, and a basis for future work on faithfulness, retrieval robustness, and agentic retrieval.

Behavior cloning provides an offline route to autonomous-driving policy learning, but mean-squared-error regression is poorly matched to demonstrations in which one observation admits several valid actions. Diffusion policies can represent conditional multimodal action distributions, yet their closed-loop performance may be unstable when visual features and control are learned from limited data. This paper presents Diffusion-2BC, which combines a diffusion denoising objective with an auxiliary deterministic behavior-cloning loss over a shared visual encoder. The auxiliary branch is used only during training; inference remains diffusion-based. The proposed method is evaluated in the controlled Claw environment and in bird's-eye-view CARLA navigation, including route-conditioned driving, route-free navigation through multiple intersections, and cross-map evaluation from Town01 to Town02. In the Claw task, Diffusion-2BC reduced the mean mask-distance error by approximately 10% relative to a diffusion-based behavior-cloning baseline and by 85% relative to standard deterministic behavior cloning. In route-free CARLA, Diffusion-2BC traveled substantially farther before termination under the evaluation protocol than both baselines in Town01 and Town02. Additional qualitative rollouts revealed distinct route choices, showing the multimodal behavior of the proposed diffusion-based agent. The results indicate that an auxiliary regression signal can improve the closed-loop reliability of diffusion behavior cloning while preserving multimodal prediction in the controlled benchmark.

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) are increasingly designed around gradient conflict between understanding and generation objectives. The premise that reducing these metrics improves the downstream understanding-generation trade-off has never been tested directly. We audit it in a controlled testbed, GRIDUMM, which mirrors key structural ingredients of UMM training while making the ground-truth trade-off exactly computable. Across 63 configurations and 372 measured checkpoints, no directional conflict metric reaches an absolute Spearman correlation of 0.3 with a confidence interval excluding zero for conflict measured during training against the eventual trade-off. A dose-response intervention that monotonically suppresses conflict leaves the trade-off flat, separating correlation from causation. The norm ratio is a generation-failure detector and becomes null among configurations that master generation. Functional interference measures outperform directional conflict metrics, while training loss tracks the trade-off strongly. Our results do not show that conflict is useless; they show that its validity as a diagnostic target must be established, not assumed, and we release the audit protocol as a reusable standard.

Grokking shows that fitting the training data and learning the underlying signal can occur at very different stages. However, existing theories offer limited quantitative insight into how this delayed generalization depends on inductive bias and signal structure. Our work addresses the gap by developing a statistical theory that characterizes how regularization geometry and signal sparsity govern generalization near interpolation. In particular, we focus on the prototypical setting of high-dimensional regression and identify regimes in which sparsity-promoting regularization makes exact interpolation much more accurate than approximate fitting. In strongly overparameterized noiseless problems, we prove a zero–one generalization law and construct a family of convex norms whose interpolators transition from the trivial risk of the all-zero predictor to exact recovery, while keeping the training error equal to $0$. Furthermore, when feature dimension and sample size are proportional, we provide a precise characterization of training and generalization errors along $\ell_r$-regularization paths. This in turn allows us to quantify the generalization gain that remains near interpolation: we show that this gain increases as the norm becomes more sparsity-promoting and as the target becomes sparser, with a sharp drop in generalization reached for noiseless data and $\ell_1$ regularization. Experiments on diagonal linear networks and transformers trained on modular arithmetic demonstrate the generality of our theoretical predictions. Finally, beyond grokking, our work reveals a statistical instability in minimum-norm interpolation: small perturbations in the regularization strength can lead to drastically different generalization, while preserving small training error.

Reliable, timely crop-yield forecasts are essential for market stability and risk management, yet many approaches rely on costly or hard-to-scale inputs. We present a frugal, transferable, and architecture-agnostic deep learning framework that uses routine weather as the only time-varying input plus two lightweight static context inputs (crop year and an agro-environmental label) to capture long-run change and regional heterogeneity, while supporting multiple sequence encoders under identical data requirements. Using a 20-season Brazilian soybean case study (2001/02-2020/21) with leave-one-year-out cross-validation, we benchmark MLP, CNN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, a Transformer encoder and the Mamba state-space model against linear ridge regression and a five-year moving-average "farmer" baseline. All deep learning variants outperform ridge, and all sequential encoders surpass the non-sequential MLP. The Transformer achieves the best national accuracy (RMSE 149 kg ha^-1; rRMSE 5.3%; R^2 = 0.784), reducing error by 47.6% relative to the farmer baseline. In-season forecasts improve monotonically from early- to late-season issuance, reaching approximately 50% lower error than the baseline at the latest forecast point. Ablations indicate that the agro-environmental label and spatial instance expansion (multiple grid-node weather sequences per municipality-year) contribute positively without increasing input complexity. SHAP diagnostics suggest crop year explains most of the long-run trajectory, whereas within-season weather and agro-environmental context primarily drive interannual deviations, with moisture/cloud and thermal-demand variables dominating. Overall, the framework is straightforward to deploy across other crops and geographic regions and is naturally compatible with operational weather forecasts for routine monitoring.

A reward can identify a correct answer while leaving the computation needed for new inputs undetermined. We study how pretraining and midtraining supply the information and computation that make reward adaptation effective. In sequential state computation and contextual memory, we characterize mechanisms that agree on every training reward yet demand different held-out answers. Task-independent source observations resolve this ambiguity. We construct finite sampled Adam paths from specified random initializations through source prediction and reward adaptation in the same parameters, proving how prediction acquires execution or retrieval and rewards learn their task-specific use. Experiments with pretrained Qwen2.5 checkpoints test this division of labor. Across eight worlds, Sequential models trained with correct source and first-operation supervision reach 82.61% success, versus 44.15% for a private-random source control. Memory replay preserves retrieval during reward adaptation, and an independent eight-world confirmation achieves 75.32% task success versus 49.86% after matched alternative-retrieval training. GSM8K and HotpotQA separate accuracy at reward entry, subsequent gain and final performance. Together, these results connect information acquisition, executable computation and reward-guided task learning.

Machine learning surrogate models offer a promising path toward accelerating plasma turbulence simulations. We present PreVAE-Turb, a surrogate modeling framework that leverages pre-trained variational autoencoders (VAEs) from the Stable Diffusion image generation model for efficient spatial compression of turbulence fields. The pre-trained VAE is fine-tuned on turbulence data using a physics-informed loss function that includes a spectral loss operating in Fourier space to enforce spectral accuracy across scales. The VAE is combined with convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks to learn temporal dynamics in latent space, with a manifold consistency error metric that monitors encode–decode consistency during autoregressive rollouts. We validate the framework on two-dimensional Hasegawa-Wakatani drift-wave turbulence and extend it to gyrokinetic turbulence from the GENE code, where a four-channel adaptation simultaneously predicts electrostatic potential, density, and parallel/perpendicular temperature fluctuations without requiring architecture redesign. Once trained, inference generates thousands of time steps in seconds on a single GPU, providing substantial computational acceleration compared to direct numerical simulation. The pre-trained approach offers a transferable methodology broadly applicable to various turbulence simulation codes.

Node-level graph anomaly detection (GAD) identifies nodes whose attributes and interactions deviate from dominant graph regularities. Existing GAD models encode normality and anomaly scoring indirectly through architectures, message passing, reconstruction or contrastive objectives, and tuned score families. This entangles graph trust (how strongly graph structure should define normality), graph-spectral weighting, and anomaly-score choice, yielding scores that are costly, opaque, and unstable across graph regimes. We propose EB-GAD (Empirical-Bayes GAD), a training-free framework that models normality as graph-aware generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (GOU) relaxation toward a graph-filtered template. Empirical Bayes fits the graph precision from the residual-field likelihood; the GOU then turns scoring into a closed-form finite-horizon control energy, the minimum effort to steer a feature-neutral node to its observed endpoint along graph-spectral relaxation. Sweeping relaxation horizon and endpoint tolerance yields a bank of scores that share one fitted prior: equilibrium Mahalanobis scoring is one limit, while finite-horizon control-energy and scale-normalized ratio scores reveal anomalies that static equilibrium scoring can mask. A label-free selector chooses the score family from feature homophily, edge density, and feature dimension, then ranks candidates by fitted-null deviation and rank stability. On 11 benchmarks and without labels at any step, EB-GAD has the best or tied-best AUROC on 9: the four financial fraud networks (up to 3.7M nodes), the YelpChi and Amazon review graphs, Weibo, Reddit and Facebook, with margins of up to 21.7 points. It is second on BlogCatalog and ACM.

Synthetic data generation is dominated by the fit-then-sample paradigm: a generative model is trained on a private dataset and then sampled from. Despite its widespread adoption, this paradigm faces three challenges: (1) a new training run is required for every dataset; (2) different data modalities, such as single tables, time series, and relational databases, require task-specific models and feature engineering; and (3) the resulting model is opaque, making its behavior under data constraints difficult to inspect. We propose GENSCRIPT, an inference-only pipeline that eliminates model training. GENSCRIPT computes a deterministic statistical profile of the source data (column types, ranges, missingness, categories, correlations, etc.) and passes it–rather than raw rows–to a language model to infer field semantics and cross-column integrity constraints. A coding agent then compiles the profile and constraints into an executable, auditable sampler. This unified approach supports single-table, temporal, and relational data without task-specific modeling. Across four single-table benchmarks, GENSCRIPT builds generators in 2 minutes and samples 50k rows within 6 seconds, while remaining within a few points of leading methods in marginal fidelity. Notably, it is the only method that perfectly preserves a 1-to-1 mapping between columns in the Adult dataset. On a smart-building dataset, it produces conditional time series that more closely match the real distribution than two baselines and perfectly preserves primary- and foreign-key relationships in the corresponding relational database.

Purpose: Behavior cloning can accumulate errors when a learned controller visits states outside the demonstrated distribution. This study evaluates whether Disagreement-Regularized Imitation Learning (DRIL), which converts disagreement among cloned policies into a reinforcement-learning reward, improves image-based continuous control. Methods: A controlled CarRacing study combines Gaussian and Beta learner policies, demonstrations from either a clipped Gaussian expert or an intrinsically bounded Beta expert, one or 20 trajectories, deterministic and stochastic evaluation, and three retained stages: behavior cloning, the highest 10-episode training-score checkpoint, and the final DRIL checkpoint. The disagreement ensemble contains five Gaussian policies in every variant. Each retained policy is evaluated over 100 procedurally generated episodes. Results: Score-selected DRIL produced its largest gains in the few-demonstration setting, improving over the strongest behavior-cloning mean by 61% with clipped-action demonstrations and by 112% with bounded-action demonstrations. With 20 trajectories, the advantage of DRIL narrowed; in the bounded-action regime, Beta behavior cloning remained about 7% above the best DRIL checkpoint. The experiments also show that the informativeness of the disagreement reward changes with the learner representation and training stage. Conclusion: DRIL can substantially improve few-demonstration visual continuous control, while bounded Beta policies provide strong behavior-cloning performance when more demonstrations are available. The results highlight the joint importance of learner support,ensemble response, and checkpoint selection.

Whether quantum computation can reduce the amount of data sampled from an unknown probability distribution required to learn a prediction rule is a fundamental question in quantum machine learning. Quantum PAC learning studies this question using quantum data as a quantum state whose squared amplitudes encode the unknown distribution from which classical learning data are sampled. With only copies of such quantum data, the optimal worst-case sample complexity asymptotically matches that of classical PAC learning. In contrast, access to both a state-preparation unitary for this state and its inverse can improve the query-complexity dependence on the accuracy parameter in realizable learning. However, it has remained unclear whether forward-only access allows such an improvement. In this work, taking the worst case over compatible state-preparation unitaries and their finite ambient dimensions, we show that the optimal forward-only query complexities of realizable and agnostic learning are, respectively, $\Theta((d+\log(1/\delta))/\varepsilon)$ and $\Theta((d+\log(1/\delta))/\varepsilon^2)$, where $d$ is the VC dimension of the concept class, $\varepsilon$ the accuracy parameter, and $\delta$ the failure probability. These bounds match the optimal sample complexities with classical data or quantum data copies. To prove them, we establish a reduction using $q$ copies of the prepared state to approximate the Haar-averaged output of any $q$-query forward-only algorithm. These results show that forward-only access cannot provide an asymptotic query-complexity advantage over learning from classical data or quantum data copies in this worst-case setting, and establish the essential role of inverse access in the known realizable-setting improvement. Our reduction also provides a new framework for analyzing limitations of forward state-preparation access via state-copy lower bounds.