Peer Revenue Publish or profit

Papers

Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.

Computer Science Machine Learning

cs.LG Watch Machine Learning (sign in to use)

Tuesday 8 September

Machine Learning

Accountable and uncertainty-aware evaluation of sensor-based AI under distribution shift: devices, subjects, and nearly three years underground

Sensor-based AI systems are rarely operated under the conditions under which they were trained: devices, personnel and recording epochs change, and each change degrades performance in ways a random train-test split cannot reveal. We propose a staged, accountable evaluation protocol that treats the evaluation of a deployed model as a measurement with declared reference levels and a quantified uncertainty. Four cumulative generalisation stages hold out devices, subjects and time. Each stage is judged on quantiles of repeated trainings against chance references with the correct class count, an out-of-present-scope rate exposes silent misdirection towards classes that are no longer present in deployment relative to training, and an explicit decision rule ties roll-out decisions not to means but to 5% quantiles. We demonstrate the protocol on infrastructure-free geomagnetic localisation with smartphone-based recurrent classifiers in two real underground mines, including a replication of the scheme's training stages at the second site. Unchanged models are re-evaluated on data recorded 34 months after the training campaign, on a device generation unknown at training time and with a held-out surveyor. The 5% quantile of their present-conditioned precision there is 0.39 over 299 repeated trainings, 16.5 times the chance level; across the composition of the 42 reachable location classes the figure varies by +/-0.08, several times the spread between repeated runs. Repeated trainings of a single configuration show why means mislead: a bimodal configuration passes a mean-based test decisively while its 5% quantile lies more than an order of magnitude below chance.
Read the full abstract

All authors Benny Platte, Rico Thomanek, Christian Roschke, Marc Ritter

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

CAST: Canonical Approximate Schur Tree for Approximate Cholesky on Graphs

Graph-data workloads such as diffusion estimation, ranking, semi-supervised learning, and network optimization often solve many Laplacian or symmetric diagonally dominant M-matrix (SDDM) systems with the same coefficient matrix. Approximate Cholesky preconditioners eliminate vertices one at a time and store the resulting sparse approximate factorization, the factor, whose construction cost is amortized across these solves. But eliminating a vertex, the pivot, creates a dense Schur-complement clique among its $d$ active neighbors. We introduce CAST (Canonical Approximate Schur Tree), which replaces this clique with a weighted random spanning tree sampled directly from it. Every realization is connected and contains exactly d-1 edges, while reweighting each selected edge by the reciprocal of its tree-inclusion probability makes the update unbiased. The distribution is independent of the ordering of the pivot neighbors, and we prove that its leverage-score marginals minimize the largest normalized reweighted-edge contribution among unbiased inverse-marginal one-tree estimators. We also introduce CAST-$\rho$, which replaces each pivot neighbor with $\rho$ copies, each carrying a $1/\rho$ share of that neighbor's incident weight, samples a weighted random spanning tree on the expanded clique, and contracts the copies back to the original neighborhood. The resulting update remains unbiased and connected, can be sampled exactly in $O(\rho d)$ time, and satisfies a $1/\rho$ bound on the second moment of the normalized local Schur error. Increasing $\rho$ therefore reduces certified local sampling variability, but may increase construction cost and downstream fill. Empirically, we observe that CAST-1 is the faster default, whereas CAST-2 is preferable when its additional edge contributions remain inexpensive.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

DiffLUT-Net: Differentiable Training of FPGA LUT Networks with Learnable Connectivity

Field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) enable efficient neural-network inference, but most deployment flows either accelerate multiply-accumulate operations or convert pretrained quantized models into lookup tables (LUTs). We present DiffLUT-Net, an FPGA-native network connected by six-input LUTs that are trained from scratch. We jointly learn the 64 truth-table entries of a LUT and the source to each of its six input ports using a differentiable LUT function relaxation and hardware source selection. After training, the truth tables and connections are discretized, unused logic can be pruned, and the network is exported directly as synthesizable Verilog. Across five benchmarks, DiffLUT-Net achieves favorable accuracy-resource trade-offs. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of jointly learning LUT functions and sparse connectivity for compact FPGA-native inference. The code is available at https://github.com/TUDa-HWAI/DiffLUT-Network.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jiaqi Ye, Xinrui Gong, Jingcun Wang, Olga Kondrateva, Bing Li, Grace Li Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

No Free Checker: A Survey of Verifiers for Robot Policies

A verifier for robot policies reads a candidate behavior and returns a score for how well it did, used both to evaluate vision-language-action policies and to train them. Verifiers range from success detectors and reward models to runtime monitors, safety filters, and temporal-logic specifications. We survey roughly 150 verifiers and compare them along two properties. Availability is how much a verdict costs, how early in a rollout the verdict arrives, and how often a verdict can be asked for. Availability rises as verdicts get cheaper, earlier, and denser. Credibility is how much a high score tells us about the task. Credibility falls as the judgment becomes gameable and self-serving. We group the verifiers by who supplies the judgment: human verifiers, rule-based and formal verifiers, learned and pretrained verifiers, and model-intrinsic verifiers. Across the four families, we find that credibility falls as availability rises. Regardless of who supplies the judgment, there is no free checker. We then examine what validates a verifier itself, and how much a high score tells us. Three measures appear in the literature: agreement with human labels, the performance of the policy it trains, and behavior under reward hacking. We close with nine metrics that make a verifier claim checkable, and coordinates for the verifiers still to be built.
Read the full abstract

All authors Yang Wan, Xihang Yue, Zhirui Liu, Ziyuan Chu, Shuxun Wang, Yuhan Chen, Xiaonan Jiang, Xukun Zhu, Yubo Dong, Linchao Zhu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

Steering Diffusion Priors with Sparse Observations for High-Resolution Temperature Downscaling

Local heatwave hazard depends on fine-scale air temperature, but ground stations are sparse and reanalysis products such as ERA5 cannot resolve the terrain and land-surface contrasts that shape real heat exposure. We present a conditional diffusion emulator for high-resolution 2-m temperature downscaling, conditioned on static geography, a training climatology, exact-time ERA5 temperature, and solar and temporal features, guided at inference by score-based data assimilation (SDA): a differentiable Gaussian observation likelihood steers the diffusion score toward sparse revealed temperature observations without any retraining. On a controlled 32-case synthetic-grid protocol over AORC, guidance improves hidden-cell reconstruction over both ERA5 and a strong observation-proximal nearest-neighbor baseline once observation density reaches 1% (RMSE 0.318 vs.\ 0.431~K, winning all 32 cases), while sparser regimes still favor direct interpolation. We further map the full guidance-strength landscape across three observation densities, showing that the optimal strength shifts systematically with density and that over-guiding causes sharp, predictable degradation – giving a concrete operating recipe rather than a single untuned setting. The resulting fields are intended as a temperature layer for downstream heatwave-hazard products such as threshold exceedance and cumulative heat-burden. The present evidence is a controlled synthetic-grid validation; station-network and held-out-year evaluations are the next steps toward deployment.
Read the full abstract

All authors Anirudh Avireddy, Manmeet Singh, Shivanshi Singh, Ayush Raj, Saptarishi Dhanuka, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Sandeep Juneja

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.geo-ph

Bayesian deep learning integration of geophysical and drilling data for 3D prediction of copper mineralization and drill targeting: a case study from the Kogodai prospect, Rudny Altai

Exploration drill targeting in structurally complex terranes is hindered by sparse sampling, heterogeneous datasets, and the ambiguity of geophysical inversions. Here, we present an uncertainty-aware 3D workflow for the acceleration of time-to-discovery in brownfield explorations and apply it to the Kogodai prospect in the Rudny Altai metallogenic province. We jointly analyse existing drilling and geophysical data in a comprehensive approach, revealing hidden patterns in already available data. Drillholes and trenches were desurveyed to a common 3D reference frame, and assays were composited to a consistent spatial support to facilitate joint modelling with geophysical inputs. We develop Bayesian deep-learning models to predict 3D fields of Cu grade together with chargeability and apparent resistivity while quantifying epistemic uncertainty via Monte Carlo sampling. The original contribution of this work is to treat the problem not as pointwise regression between co-located observations, but as joint learning of spatially continuous 3D fields from sparse, heterogeneous exploration evidence. The resulting 3D predictions delineate a principal mineralized trend and several localized candidate zones that coincide with elevated induced polarization (IP) responses, while uncertainty mapping highlights where predictions are robust versus where additional drilling would be most informative. The continuous Cu-grade field can also be thresholded to produce binary prospectivity maps, allowing the sensitivity of target delineation to the chosen cutoff to be evaluated. The outputs are intended for qualitative interpretation and risk-aware drill targeting rather than resource estimation, and we discuss key limitations arising from incomplete provenance metadata for geophysical products and heterogeneity of historical sampling.
Read the full abstract

All authors Margarita Veshchezerova, Egor Barashov, Evgenii Gusev, Michael R. Perelshtein, Arlan Kasymzhan, Bolat M. Kabaziev, Nurlan Y. Askarov

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

What Fixed-Rollout pass@k Evaluations Can Identify

Repeated-sampling evaluations increasingly extrapolate pass@k far beyond the number n of samples collected per problem. We show that, in the pooled/random-task conditional-Binomial model, fixed-n success counts identify only the n free moments of the latent per-task success distribution. Consequently, direct pass@k is identified for k <= n, but generic extrapolated pass@k, tail exponents, and tail constants are not identified for k > n, even with arbitrarily many exchangeable tasks at the same rollout budget. This is stronger than the observation that the usual estimator is undefined beyond n: it characterizes the information missing from the fixed-depth count-law experiment. We give exact count-law-preserving constructions with incompatible extrapolations, state the exceptional unique-extension case, and compute sharp population identified intervals through Hausdorff principal representations. On the public 10,000-rollout-per-problem release of Brown et al., counterfactual n = 16 evaluations leave failure at k = 1000 ambiguous by factors from 1.5 to over 2,600 across four MATH/GSM8K/CodeContests configurations. The calibration shows that intermediate-scale failure share alone does not determine width. Our result does not reject parametric inference-time scaling laws; it supplies the nonparametric baseline against which their assumptions can be evaluated. We give an exact, conservative one-coordinate finite-task confidence certificate and a reporting standard separating direct estimates, identified sets, and model-conditioned forecasts.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Critical initialization destabilizes higher input derivatives in wide scalar-input networks

The edge-of-chaos condition preserves first-order input perturbations in wide randomly initialized networks, but physics-informed losses, score matching and derivative regularization depend on higher input derivatives. For smooth scalar-input fully connected networks, using a joint Gaussianity of the finite derivative jet that holds in the infinite-width limit at each fixed depth, we derive mean-field recursions through third order that are exact at the variance fixed point, with finite-depth corrections that decay geometrically. At criticality, the first-derivative variance is depth-invariant, whereas the second-derivative variance grows linearly whenever the activation has nonzero curvature. The resulting third-order system closes on mean-field susceptibilities. For residual networks with branch scale L^{-1/2}, we prove that every fixed finite derivative order has uniformly bounded variance under explicit regularity assumptions. Simulations verify the critical growth laws, the residual bound, and the closed recursion. The results concern initialization, not trained-network performance.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Distribution-Consistent Inference for Dynamic Sparse Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a powerful paradigm for scaling model capacity while preserving efficient inference in large foundation models. However, most MoE models use a fixed top-$k$ expert selection policy, assigning the same expert budget to every token even when fewer experts may be sufficient. Inference-time dynamic top-$k$ routing can reduce computation without retraining, but existing methods often overlook the distributional shift caused by deviating from the training-time routing configuration. We show that reducing the number of activated experts consistently increases the RMS scale and variance of SMoE outputs, inducing a representation mismatch that contributes to downstream performance degradation in addition to the loss of expert capacity. To address this correctable component, we propose Layer-wise Distribution Alignment (LDA), a lightweight inference-time correction that uses layer-wise calibration statistics to align reduced-routing representations with the default configuration. Across multiple SMoE LLMs, benchmarks, and routing strategies, LDA recovers much of the performance lost induced by the distributional shift under reduced routing while preserving sparse-inference efficiency with negligible overhead.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Scaling Post-Training Ternarisation to Qwen3-8B Capability Retention, Reproduction, Lossless Packing, and Packed Execution

Ultra-low-bit language models promise reductions in storage and memory traffic, but a nominal "1.58-bit" label does not specify the deployed representation or its execution cost. We study a scale-up of an aggressive post-training conversion pipeline from Qwen3-4B to Qwen3-8B. The conversion uses KOTMS rotation, E2M-ATQ adaptive ternarisation, and GPTQ-style error compensation in a weight-only A16 configuration. We do not claim these algorithms as new. Our contribution is the end-to-end scale-up characterisation: an external reproduction gate, matched 4B/8B capability analysis, cross-corpus perplexity, effective-bit accounting, lossless lattice-aware packing, and direct packed execution. The 8B model reaches a three-corpus perplexity ratio of 1.361x, with WikiText-2, C4, and PTB ratios of 1.318x, 1.393x, and 1.371x. On eight zero-shot tasks at n = 500, mean accuracy is 64.6% versus 72.4% for FP16, corresponding to 78.5% chance-corrected retention and a 7.8-point absolute cost. The matched 4B run retains 69.6%, yielding an 8.9-point 8B advantage. The packed checkpoint is 8.24 GiB and preserves the recorded perplexity to measurement precision. Direct packed execution reaches 15.52 tokens/s in 7.35 GiB, while a preliminary packed GEMV remains slower than FP16 cuBLAS. The result is a validated scale-up baseline: model size improves robustness to aggressive post-training discretisation, actual serialisation is solved for the measured artefact, and direct execution is feasible, while broader seeds, calibration distributions, and kernel optimisation remain open.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Learning Length-Extrapolatable Recurrent Models

Recurrent models provide a natural path to long-context modeling, yet models trained with backpropagation through time (BPTT) often fail beyond their training horizon. Classical analyses emphasize gradients that vanish or explode along temporal paths. However, dense per-token losses can still train a shared recurrent rule despite severe decay, showing that decay alone does not determine whether learning fails. We instead study state credit: the signal through which future losses reach earlier recurrent states before contributing to parameter updates. Accordingly, we intervene directly on state credit and propose Credit Stabilization through Time (CST). During backward propagation, CST locally rescales the state-credit signal to stabilize its norm without rotating the component being corrected, while leaving the forward computation unchanged. Because controlled synthetic tasks and real data exhibit different credit dynamics, we specialize CST to each regime. In both settings, CST improves performance beyond the training horizon, with gains observed at up to 128x the training length.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Silver Rate Is (Almost) Optimal for Gradient Descent

We study how far gradient descent (GD) can be accelerated by predetermined stepsizes in smooth convex optimization. Writing $p_{\mathrm{sil}}=\log_2(1+\sqrt{2})$, we prove an $\Omega\left(n^{-p_{\mathrm{sil}}-O(\sqrt{\log\log n/\log n})}\right)$ non-anytime lower bound. In the anytime setting, every infinite schedule has infinitely many horizons with error $\Omega\left(n^{-\frac{2p_{\mathrm{sil}}}{1+p_{\mathrm{sil}}}-O(\sqrt{\log\log n/\log n})}\right)$. Together with the silver-schedule upper bound [Altschuler and Parrilo, 2025] and the anytime upper bound [Zhang et al., 2025], our results determine the optimal polynomial convergence exponents in both settings.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

The digitization of healthcare has generated vast, longitudinal, and multimodal patient records over a lifetime, yet fully exploiting these data to represent and predict patient state trajectories remains a critical challenge. Current AI models often struggle to capture the complex, irregular temporal dynamics and inherent stochasticity of real-world multimodal patient data. Existing AI approaches for modeling longitudinal patient records are predominantly discriminative, limited to a few modalities, constrained by closed categorical vocabularies, treating time as a monotonic inductive bias, or they are limited in forecasting future patient states. We introduce NOAH, a time-aware, task-agnostic, generative transformer model representing and forecasting the full multimodal patient journey. NOAH features a novel bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to capture the continuous evolution of patient states and the stochasticity of clinical trajectories. Built from over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits of 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family, NOAH natively processes medical images, time-series and numeric signals, categorical events, as well as structured and unstructured clinical records. NOAH is the first truly holistic generative model in its field, enabling autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation. It generates highly informative and predictive patient state representations that demonstrate strong performance in probing for clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities, as well as in time-to-event prediction. Seamlessly handling diverse modalities and complex temporal dynamics, NOAH provides a versatile, task-agnostic, scalable foundation for intelligent predictive systems in personalized clinical care and digital medicine.
Read the full abstract

All authors Tobias Susetzky, Raphael Rehms, Dmitrii Seletkov, Özgün Turgut, Michelle Espranita Liman, Lisa Steinhelfer, Rickmer Braren, Daniel Rueckert

Machine Learning

Entropy-Regularized Rank-Masked Policy Optimization for Test-Time Reinforcement Learning in Code Generation

Existing methods for test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) derive rewards from answer-level self-voting on unlabeled test-time tasks with canonical answers, but this breaks down for code generation because programs cannot be compared by surface form and therefore do not directly provide a usable training signal. To make TTRL applicable to code generation, we propose probe-driven TTRL, which constructs output-free probe inputs from the problem statement, executes candidate programs on these probes, and defines a Probe Consensus Reward (PCR) from the resulting behavioral agreement. PCR provides a behavioral training signal for open-vocabulary programs, but it is not a fully reliable verifier and remains susceptible to reward hacking through spurious consensus. We therefore introduce Entropy-Regularized Rank-Masked Policy Optimization (ERPO), which converts low PCR into conservative negative updates through rank masking and controls policy drift with an entropy ceiling. On coding benchmarks, ERPO substantially improves pass@1 and pass@k in both in-domain adaptation and zero-shot transfer.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jiacheng Xu, Feng Chen, Xiuneng Xu, Bo An

Machine Learning

Nearly Tight Rademacher Bounds for Sparsely Activated Neural Networks

An input may activate few hidden units even when different inputs collectively use an entire network. We study the statistical complexity of this input-dependent sparsity in the one-hidden-layer ReLU model of Awasthi et al. (COLT 2024). For width $s$, at most $k$ active units per input, and effective weight and bias bounds $W,B$, every size-$m$ sample in the class's fixed radius-$R$ input domain satisfies $\mathcal{R}(S)\le CWR\min\{k,\sqrt{sk/m}\log^{3/2}(2m)\}+kB/\sqrt m$. A support-preserving cover and a single normalized chaining argument remove the previous explicit dimension factor, up to logarithms. Lower bounds on appropriate i.i.d. marginals match up to those logarithms, showing how changing active units across inputs retains a width dependence. The input domain matters: zero-bias networks sparse on the entire ball have at most $2k$ nonzero units and complexity $O(kWR/\sqrt m)$, whereas bias bounds comparable to $WR$ restore the worst-case rate on that same domain in only logarithmic dimension. A spherical-cap construction proves the latter claim without assuming sparsity merely on the sampling support. For a specified normalized bounded loss and biases comparable to $WR$, we also obtain agnostic minimax excess-risk bounds of order $\min\{1,\sqrt{s/(km)}\}$ up to logarithms.
Read the full abstract

All authors Xiaoyu Li, Zhizhou Sha, Jiaojiao Jiang, Junbin Gao, Andi Han

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

A Generalization of Amari's Bayesian Duality

Amari's contributions to information geometry and machine learning are well known. Here, we revisit Amari's work on Bayesian duality which has not received as much attention. We connect Amari's Bayesian duality to a convex duality of Bayes' rule. Using this connection, we present a generalization of Amari's Bayesian duality and discuss its relevance for modern artificial intelligence.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

When Does Scale-Invariant Optimization Become Unstable? An Exact Schedule Law with Weight Decay

Normalization renders large parts of neural networks effectively scale invariant, inducing a hidden feedback loop in which learning-rate schedules and weight decay interact through the parameter norm to control the effective step taken by the optimizer. We show that this interaction is governed by an exact discrete-time law: a single scalar quantity captures all schedule and decay forcing, while norm growth induces an opposing geometric self-quenching effect. This yields a sharp boundary that cleanly separates contraction- and expansion-dominated effective learning rate regimes. To understand the underlying mechanism, we provide exact analysis of a fully solved normalized regression model where the dynamics reduce to two dimensions and show that the balance point is intrinsically unstable, implying that constant learning rate with weight decay cannot stably maintain an interior equilibrium and instead produces recurrent behavior driven by discrete-time Jacobian structure. We further extend this perspective across optimizers through unified homogeneous-optimizer framework that reveals a structural dichotomy in self-quenching strength, providing a first-principles explanation for why adaptive methods exhibit systematically weaker stabilization under normalization. Across dynamical systems and neural networks (MLP, CNN, GPT2 / MNIST, CIFAR, wikiText, OpenWebText), the predicted law holds with high precision and enables direct control of training via the identified scalar, with performance peaking sharply at the predicted boundary. Together, these results isolate a single governing quantity for scale-invariant optimization, providing a precise and actionable lens on training dynamics, optimizer behavior, and schedule design in modern deep learning. Code is available in https://github.com/shasanamin/normalized-optimization-dynamics.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

SAEScientist-Bench: Can AI Agents Conduct Autonomous SAE Interpretability Research?

While research on recursive self-improvement (RSI) has predominantly automated model training pipelines, reliable autonomous development demands a missing pillar: post-hoc monitoring and auditing to understand what models learn and ensure safe alignment. Mechanistic interpretability tools are essential to bridge this gap, among which Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) serve as a cornerstone by isolating interpretable features for model inspection and steering. In this paper, we introduce SAEScientist-Bench to evaluate whether AI agents can act as scientists utilizing SAE tools for autonomous mechanistic discovery. Given a target concept, an agent designs contrastive probes and navigates a Gemma Scope dictionary of 131K+ features in Gemma-2-9B-IT to discover the optimal feature, evaluated against curated expert reference features anchored on Neuronpedia across activation rank, concept selectivity on contrastive texts, and causal steering. Across 10 agent configurations and 20 tasks, frontier agents demonstrate genuine discovery capabilities and lead different evaluation dimensions, but remain well behind the expert baseline, approaching expert levels on separating target concepts from contrastive controls while lagging substantially in causal generation steering. Further analysis reveals that although agents can design contrasts to rule out spurious candidates, they frequently misinterpret experimental measurements. These results establish experimental model understanding as a measurable capability for closed-loop autonomous AI R&D. Our code is available at https://github.com/Trae1ounG/SAEScientist.
Read the full abstract

All authors Yuqiao Tan, Shizhu He, Jun Zhao, Kang Liu

Machine Learning

Curriculum Learning as Transport: Understanding Curricula with Wasserstein Geodesics

Curriculum learning is governed by several coupled design choices—how difficulty is defined, how examples are ordered, how much exposure each level receives, and how quickly training moves across levels—making it hard to isolate what actually helps. We present Wasserstein curriculum paths, a simple transport-based framework that decouples these factors by representing curricula as trajectories of training distributions over discrete difficulty levels. Across a calibrated synthetic suite with 12 tasks and 33 difficulty axes, we use this framework to isolate the effects of ordering, matched exposure, endpoint smoothness, and pacing under fixed training budgets. We find that curriculum effects are strongly context-dependent: no single strategy dominates across tasks, difficulty axes, and budgets, and curricula mainly change where a fixed budget is spent most effectively. Within this framework, easy-to-hard ordering improves hard-level performance relative to exposure-matched static sampling, showing that the benefit is not explained by cumulative exposure alone. We further show that endpoint smoothness and pacing substantially affect where along the difficulty spectrum a curriculum is effective. Finally, we show that the same transport view naturally supports extensions to learned pacing through geometry and to structured difficulty spaces beyond one-dimensional orderings.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

ThinkPrior: Zero-Rollout Difficulty Priors for Cold-Start Prompt Selection in RLVR

In reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) trained with group relative policy optimization (GRPO), the KL-free reward-advantage term studied here depends on within-group reward variation. If all rollouts in a group are correct or all are wrong, their group-relative advantages are identically zero; these zero-advantage silent groups provide no reward-advantage gradient, yet uniform sampling spends 39% of a run's rollouts on them. History-based prompt selection must first spend target-policy rollouts to estimate difficulty, creating a cold start with rollout waste; ThinkPrior instead uses an external anchor in one offline pass to construct a zero-rollout difficulty prior before the first target-policy rollout. The verifier-scored anchor pass rate supplies an external-anchor initialization for a Beta posterior; ThinkPrior selects by expected learnability and then updates from training outcomes, changing neither the loss nor the optimizer. On Qwen2.5-Math-7B across sixteen seeds, ThinkPrior more than halves early silent groups and cuts wasted rollouts through step 30 by nearly a fifth, while we detect no difference in final accuracy. On this 250-prompt pool the fixed-budget result is a reallocation rather than a net saving. The measured ThinkPrior+DAPO composition reduces generated rollouts by 10.6% while both arms retain the same 3840-rollout update budget. The prior requires no target-policy rollout before the first selection, but the posterior thereafter uses target-policy outcomes.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Multi-Task Learning for Sparsely-Labeled Time Series: A Case Study on Cold-Hardiness Modeling

We present a real-world case study of multi-task learning (MTL) for temporal process modeling from limited data with temporally sparse labels. Specifically, we investigate multi-task learning for the important agricultural problem of predicting grape cold hardiness, which is the temperature at which lethal freezing occurs. Cold hardiness changes in response to weather and is difficult to measure directly in the field. Thus, growers rely on predictions to decide when to apply costly frost mitigation measures. We apply recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for daily cold-hardiness prediction from time series weather data. A major challenge is that the cold hardiness response varies across plant cultivars and ground-truth data for each cultivar is temporally sparse and limited. To address this challenge, we investigate multi-task learning (MTL) approaches for combining data, where different tasks correspond to different cultivars. We develop a variety of MTL architectures and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Our results show significant differences between architectures and that certain architectures are able to consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models. Additionally, we show similar results for the qualitatively different, but related, task of budbreak prediction. Further, improved accuracy for budbreak and cold hardiness is achieved by a single MTL model that simultaneously learns both tasks.
Read the full abstract

All authors Aseem Saxena, Paola Pesántez-Cabrera, Markus Keller, Alan Fern

Machine Learning

PlayTrain: An Efficient Reinforcement Learning Framework for LLM-Generated Adaptable JavaScript Games

While many video-game environments (VGEs) have played crucial roles in advancing reinforcement learning (RL), developing novel VGEs or modifying existing ones to support new features, has been a laborious process requiring extensive hand-coding. Here we present PlayTrain, an RL framework that combines the abilities of large language models (LLMs) to robustly generate JavaScript (JS) games from a minimal human prompt, and an efficient pipeline that can run any JS game in a standard 'gym' environment. Not only are recent LLMs particularly good at writing JS code, but the JS format also allows users to easily play generated VGEs, while PlayTrain enables us to train RL agents on the exact same games. We demonstrate multiple use cases of PlayTrain, including cloning well-known Atari and ProcGen games in simple JS, where PlayTrain trains pixel-based agents end-to-end at over 1M agent-decisions per second on a single GPU node; and creating modified versions thereof (e.g., that support novel test sets, procedural generation logics, or game dynamics). Through PlayTrain, we reimagine RL VGE development: all we need is a single JS file, generated and modified through an LLM. We discuss promising future RL research directions that PlayTrain unlocks.
Read the full abstract

All authors Ryan Truong, Lance Ying, Samuel J. Gershman, Kazuki Irie

Machine Learning

Training-Free Task Vectors for LLM Behavioral Control

Task vectors enable post-training model editing by identifying semantically meaningful directions in weight space, typically computed as the difference between a fine-tuned model and its pretrained initialization. However, this reliance on fine-tuning makes discovering such directions costly and limits the practicality of post-training model editing. To address this limitation, we introduce Training-Free Task Vectors (TFTVs), a novel method to compute task-vector-like directions without requiring fine-tuning. Our method maps activation steering vectors to rank-one weight-space edits using only forward-pass statistics, while satisfying arithmetic properties that directly support learning via addition, forgetting via subtraction, and the composition of multiple edits. Empirically, we evaluate TFTVs on large language model behavioral control tasks and show that they consistently amplify, suppress, and compose target behaviors while preserving general knowledge and problem-solving skills. We also validate our method against other editing and steering baselines, experimentally demonstrating that TFTVs achieve stronger trait control with better or competitive utility preservation. We hope our work opens new directions for the community in post-training model editing and broader training-free model control. Code is available on the project website: tftv-llm.github.io.
Read the full abstract

All authors Gabriel J. Perin, Lucas Boscaini, André Araujo, Nina S. T. Hirata

Machine Learning

Do Reasoning Representations Help Humans Evaluate LLM Outputs?

Reasoning representations are increasingly used as explanations for large language model outputs. Yet they are typically evaluated with model-centric criteria, such as answer accuracy and faithfulness, leaving it unclear whether they help people evaluate model responses. In this work, we study reasoning representations as human-facing interfaces rather than proxies for model reasoning ability. We conduct a controlled human study of six reasoning formats across tasks of varying complexity, supported by a web-based framework that randomizes task domains, problem instances, and representation order. The study collects fine-grained judgments of structural understanding, error detection and localization, and trust calibration. Our study shows a mismatch between perceived preference and support for human evaluation. Participants prefer planning- and decomposition-based representations, but simpler chain-of-thought traces better support verification, trust, and interpretability. Preferred representations also introduce calibration risks, with more false alarms on correct traces and high trust despite low willingness to verify.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Answer-Distribution Trajectories: A Stochastic-Dynamics View of LLM Reasoning

Chain-of-thought reasoning provides a structured computation between a model's input and final answer. Yet it is often evaluated through endpoint accuracy, which ignores the path taken to reach that answer. An emerging line of work addresses this limitation using entropy profiles, which track how uncertainty evolves over the reasoning process but do not reveal which competing hypotheses account for that uncertainty. We introduce answer-distribution trajectories, a stochastic-dynamics-inspired representation that tracks the model's full predictive distribution over answers as reasoning unfolds. As a strictly finer representation than endpoint and entropy summaries, answer-distribution trajectories enable us to characterize a trace through a dynamical reasoning profile spanning exploration, revision, motion, and commitment, and to distinguish different dynamical mechanisms of reasoning success and failure. Across sixteen open-weight language models and four reasoning benchmarks, we show that traces with the same endpoint and similar entropy profiles can exhibit substantially different reasoning dynamics. We further find substantial variation in these dynamics both within and across models and tasks, with different objectives favoring different dynamical profiles. Additionally, we show that training and inference choices systematically reshape these profiles. Our results suggest that answer-distribution trajectories provide a rich framework for analysing and evaluating the dynamics of LLM reasoning.
Read the full abstract

All authors Mar Gonzàlez I Català, Haitz Sáez de Ocáriz Borde, Davide Murari, Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb, Pietro Liò, George Montañez

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from astro-ph.GA

Closed-Form of the Local Galactic Potential and Stellar Distribution Function from Gaia DR3

The local dark matter density determines the strength of the signal expected in direct-detection experiments, yet published estimates from stellar motions disagree by more than their errors, and the most recent machine-learning analysis of Gaia data finds a local density consistent with zero. According to Jeans' theorem, a distribution function built from integrals of motion satisfies the collisionless Boltzmann equation (CBE) trivially for any choice of potential, so a search that simultaneously fits the distribution function and the potential to the CBE identifies neither. Our pipeline instead estimates the distribution function in isolation, linearizing the equation in terms of accelerations and allowing for direct measurement of the local force field, and then fits closed forms to that field via symbolic regression. Throughout, we find that the usable information lies not in the CBE residual but in the stellar number counts, the observable most distorted by survey selection. Along the vertical profile, our recovered potential agrees with the classical self-gravitating isothermal disc.
Read the full abstract

All authors Indranil Das, Adam Kamoski, Dora Demiri, Brianna Isola, Hanieh Karimi, Dmitrii S. Zagorulia

Machine Learning

Let It Go or Learn to Self-Correct: Continuous Diffusion for Constrained Discrete Tasks

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) generate samples by starting from noise and repeatedly denoising while keeping each update close to the current noisy state. This behavior is effective in many continuous domains, but its role is less clear for globally constrained discrete tasks, such as Sudoku, graph connectivity, Latin squares, and N-queens. In such settings, early discrete errors can be difficult to undo. As a result, standard diffusion sampling may preserve early mistakes, even when the model's clean predictions are informative. We compare standard samplers to sampling directly from the model's clean prediction. Without retraining, this single change improves Sudoku validity from 31% to 95%, with consistent gains across the other discrete tasks. We hypothesize that staying close to the current noisy state is harmful because the reverse trajectory can drift off the forward noising distribution the model was trained on. To reduce this train-test mismatch, we further introduce self-correction training, which exposes the model to its own predictions, improving robustness to errors that arise during inference. This substantially improves the performance of standard samplers. Our results suggest that continuous diffusion models can learn nontrivial global constraints, but discrete reasoning tasks require better alignment between training and inference: either through samplers that reduce commitment to early decisions, or through training that teaches the model to correct its own inference-time errors.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Evaluation of Contextual Understanding in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive performance across diverse NLP tasks, yet their ability to exhibit genuine contextual understanding remains uncertain. Traditional evaluation metrics such as perplexity, BiLingual Evaluation Understudy (BLEU), or surface-level accuracy fail to reveal how well LLMs extract, integrate, and reason over contextual information–a gap particularly critical in question answering, where models must align responses with contextually grounded knowledge rather than memorized associations. We propose a novel knowledge graph-based evaluation framework introducing Semantic Structural Similarity for KGs (S3KG), a hybrid similarity measure integrating structural and semantic similarity into a continuous evaluation score, alongside a diagnostic framework for categorizing reasoning errors. To validate this pipeline, we evaluate S3KG against established metrics on a curated question-answer (QA) benchmark, demonstrating its effectiveness in measuring correctness, faithfulness, and interpretability in LLM-generated responses.
Read the full abstract

All authors Subavarshana Arumugam, Mamta Nallaretnam, Kithuni Wickramasinghe, Chamath Gunapala, Pragatheeswaran Vipulanandan, Uthayasanker Thayasivam, Kamal Premaratne

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Deposon: An Auditable, Conservation-Guaranteed, Game-Theoretically Tested Scattering Layer over LLM Reasoning Paths

Multi-step LLM reasoning lacks a machine-recheckable ledger: discarded reasoning paths leave no auditable record. We propose the Deposon scattering layer, which binds each node of an LLM-generated concept-decomposition graph to a two-parameter Deposon state; paths undergo three-channel scattering – transmission, reflection, irreversible dissipation – obeying T+R+A=1 for arbitrary parameters, with a maximum per-path energy-audit deviation of 2.2E-16 (machine epsilon). We report all three evidence tiers honestly. On synthetic trap benchmarks the path-filtering gain is closed (pre-registered): unified reaches 100% versus a decoy-capture baseline at 7%/10%. On real benchmarks the layer is indistinguishable from a trivial six-keyword rule filter (GSM8K 0.87 >= 0.85, McNemar p=0.5; StrategyQA 0.899 = 0.899); no difference is detected here, so we sharpen the claim to "the differential value lies solely in machine verifiability." Fusion yields a second negative result: convex combinations with a semantic prior never improve (physics 0.484 -> 0.452), and the apparent lambda=2 gain is an anti-field artifact; any fusion gain must be nonlinear. Modeling the reverse dynamics as a potential game on the graph, we evidence an auditable scalar's monotonicity and near-gradientness and quantify the empirical coordination ratio (ECR). The three formalized dynamical-equivalence propositions (P1a/P1b/T-P1c) are falsified under the pre-registered kill protocol, and the potential-game claim is downgraded to approximate (cyclic-graph median residual 0.669): only consistency-level evidence survives at the dynamical level. Code: github.com/zeroandcat/Deposon.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Physics-Informed Deep Learning for False Ventricular Tachycardia Alarm Reduction in the ICU

False ventricular tachycardia (VT) alarms are a leading contributor to alarm fatigue in intensive care units. We propose a deep learning framework combining a 1D SE-ResNet with ICU-realistic data augmentations and a physics-informed auxiliary reconstruction task based on the three-element Windkessel hemodynamic model, implemented as a differentiable forward simulation. By requiring the network's latent representation to produce physiologically plausible arterial pressure waveforms, artifact-driven ECG patterns are penalized while true VT remains coherent across modalities. Evaluated on the VTaC benchmark under a strict real-time protocol (10-second pre-alarm window), our method achieves a 5-point Challenge Score improvement over prior state-of-the-art. Ablation studies confirm that the physics-informed objective is the primary performance driver, providing gains in accuracy, 2x label efficiency, and more localized and clinically meaningful ECG segments.
Read the full abstract