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Thursday 27 August

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cond-mat.dis-nn

Dynamical phase selection controls compute scaling in looped transformers

A looped transformer performs inference by iterating a weight-tied map, making its computation a dynamical process whose cost is set by the resulting inference dynamics. Here we show that networks with identical architecture and objective, trained to identical accuracy, nevertheless realize distinct dynamical phases depending strongly on initialization, and that the bifurcation defining each phase determines how test-time compute scales. The phases are distinguished by their bifurcation mechanisms, including a saddle-node fold and a Neimark-Sacker-type transition to bounded nonstationary motion. In the fold phase, a one-dimensional normal-form reduction predicts both the relaxation-time and spectral-gap amplitudes from local derivatives of the trained map, yielding the parameter-free relation $\tau(\varepsilon)[1-\lambda_{\max}(-\varepsilon)]\to\pi$. Composed with a regular distribution of problem difficulty, the same critical slowing down produces the workload-level tail $P(\tau>N)\sim N^{-2}$. In the Neimark–Sacker phase, the fold scaling law disappears rather than merely changing its prefactor. Thus, test-time compute is not determined by architecture alone. It is governed by the dynamical phase of the solution found by training.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DS

Hadamard Flattening and Gaussian Pooling Sketch for Least Squares with Coordinate-wise Guarantee

Randomized sketch-and-solve algorithms accelerate overconstrained $\ell_2$ regression by replacing the input with a smaller problem. Standard subspace embeddings guarantee that the cost of the regression is nearly preserved, but coordinate-wise accuracy of the solution is more delicate: we want the solution vector itself to be close to the optimal solution in $\ell_\infty$ norm. In particular, we want to find a vector $x'\in \mathbb{R}^d$ such that $\|x'-x^*\|_\infty\leq \frac{\epsilon}{\sqrt d}\cdot \|Ax^\star-b\|_2\cdot \|A^\dagger\|_{\rm op}$. Price, Song and Woodruff initiated the study of this problem and showed that the subsampled randomized Hadamard transform (SRHT) with $O(\epsilon^{-2} d^{1+\Theta(\sqrt{\log\log n/\log d})})$ rows achieves this guarantee. A subsequent work of Song, Ye, Yin and Zhang claimed to improve the row count to $O(\epsilon^{-2}d\log^3 n)$. Unfortunately, their proof relies on an independence assumption that does not hold in general, and we exhibit an explicit instance on which it fails. To achieve a truly nearly-linear-in-$d$ row count, we introduce a new fast, dense randomized transform, which combines a randomized Hadamard flattening, a random permutation, and balanced, disjoint Gaussian pooling. Conditioned on the Hadamard-and-permutation stage, the sketched problem becomes an exact Gaussian regression in which the noise is independent of the entire sketched design; this conditional independence is exactly what the earlier argument was missing. Our sketch yields the $\ell_\infty$ guarantee with $m=O(\epsilon^{-2}d\log d)$ rows, uses one Hadamard pass with a padded internal dimension $N=\widetilde{O}(n+\epsilon^{-2}d^3)$, and is efficient to apply: the sketched pair $(SA, Sb)$ can be computed in $O(Nd\log N)=\widetilde{O}(nd+\epsilon^{-2}d^4)$ time.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.NA

Physics-Informed Stochastic Configuration Machine: A Backpropagation-Free Neural Network with Fast Training for Nonlinear Differential Equations

While Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a transformative paradigm for solving complex differential equations, their reliance on backpropagation-based gradient descent and automatic differentiation (AD) imposes significant computational bottlenecks and severe non-convex optimization challenges. To overcome these fundamental limitations, we propose the Physics-Informed Stochastic Configuration Machine (PI-SCM), a novel backpropagation-free framework for both forward and inverse problems in differential equations. The core mathematical contribution lies in the analytical evaluation of local Jacobians for nonlinear differential operators, which facilitates a linearized representation of the physical loss and projects it into a unified, linearized algebraic subspace. This reformulation allows for the explicit determination of optimal network weights via a sequence of generalized linear least squares solvers, effectively bypassing the iterative traps of traditional nonlinear optimizers. We develop a progressive algorithmic suite comprising localized construction (PI-SC-I), sliding-window updating (PI-SC-II), and global updating (PI-SC-III), and rigorously establish their universal approximation properties. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PI-SCM achieves high-fidelity predictive accuracy and robust parameter identification while accelerating the training process by orders of magnitude compared to standard PINNs. Our work provides a highly efficient and scalable foundation for next-generation, real-time Scientific Machine Learning applications.
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All authors Yuehao Song, Zhong Chen, Lihui Cen, Liang Wu, Kai Zhang

Machine Learning

Chart2SVG: Editable SVG Generation from Raster Chart Images

We present Chart2SVG, a multimodal large language model that converts static raster charts into structurally organized, semantically enriched SVGs that support programmatic editing. By incorporating chart-specific semantic tokens into a vision-language model, Chart2SVG captures both geometric primitives and their functional roles. To support robust structural recovery, we introduce Beagle+, a dataset of 33K canonicalized and structurally distilled chart samples. Our approach combines specialized training objectives with a rendering-aware post-training phase, producing SVGs that are both visually accurate and structurally consistent. To facilitate higher-level manipulations, we construct a Chart Structure Graph (CSG) that exposes visual dependencies, enabling tasks such as interactive exploration, chart repurposing, and layout reuse. Experiments show that Chart2SVG substantially outperforms baselines in reconstruction fidelity and downstream editing utility, advancing the development of intelligent and interactive visualization tools.
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All authors Jinning Cui, Lu Chen, Haoyan Shi, Yue He, Chenglong Wang, Mengyu Zhou, Weidong Huang, Yunhai Wang

Machine Learning

Predicting Quantifiability from Primary Screens to Prioritize Dose-Response Profiling

High-throughput drug screening relies on low-cost primary assays to prioritize compounds for more expensive dose-response profiling, where potency is ultimately quantified. Current screening strategies largely focus on identifying compounds that will confirm biological activity on follow-up, implicitly assuming that confirmed activity will also yield a usable potency estimate. However, confirmed biological activity in screening does not necessarily translate into a quantifiable potency, because active compounds can still fail to produce a reportable dose-response estimate. We therefore present a framework for modeling quantifiability, whether follow-up testing will yield a usable potency estimate, as a distinct triage objective from biological activity. Quantifiability was strongly predictable from the preceding low-cost screen, with most predictive information arising from the observed screening features rather than molecular structure. Response-based predictors remained robust on previously unseen chemical scaffolds and generalized across held-out assay-mechanism families, while the probability of successful quantification varied strongly with response amplitude and assay context. These findings establish experimental measurability, distinct from biological activity, as a predictable property of screening outcomes and show that quantifiability-aware triage can improve the allocation of costly dose-response profiling capacity.
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Machine Learning

High Probability Derivative Bounds for Random tanh Neural Networks on a Hypercube

We establish high-probability bounds for mixed input derivatives of wide random neural networks whose activation derivatives satisfy a factorial growth bound. Our main result specializes these estimates to $\tanh$ networks with Xavier initialization. A direct deterministic analysis based on Euclidean operator norms of the weight matrices yields derivative bounds that generally grow exponentially with the depth. We show that this growth can be substantially improved for sufficiently wide Gaussian networks by isolating the term that is linear in the highest-order derivative and controlling the corresponding tangent directions by measurable finite nets. For scalar-output $\tanh$ networks with Gaussian weights and Xavier initialization, we prove that there exist constants $C,C_0,C_1>0$ such that, whenever the common hidden width satisfies $n \geq C\left(L^3n_0^2(1+\log n_0)+L^2\left(1+\log(L/\eta)\right)\right)$, then, with probability at least $1-\eta$, the estimate $\left|D^u\mathcal{R}_{\Phi^{(L)}}(x)\right| \leq C_0 |u|! (C_1L)^{|u|-1}\prod_{j\in u}\beta_j(\eta,n_0)$ holds simultaneously for every non-empty $u\subseteq[n_0]$ and every $x\in[0,1]^{n_0}$. Thus, the first-order derivative bound is independent of the depth, while a square-free mixed derivative of order $|u|$ grows at most polynomially as $L^{|u|-1}$, apart from the coordinate factors. As consequences, we obtain high-probability bounds for the Euclidean Lipschitz constant and for weighted Sobolev norms of the network realization. The latter connect the derivative estimates to quasi-Monte Carlo integration and indicate how such regularity can enter the analysis of QMC-based training.
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Machine Learning

Algorithmic Principles For Multiclass Learning Are Hard To Come By: Limits of Regularization and Proper Learning

Two of the most fundamental questions in statistical learning theory are the following: which prediction problems are learnable, and how should they be learned? For the former, elegant answers often take the form of combinatorial dimensions. The latter question, however, has proved considerably more elusive: all known general-purpose multiclass learners rely on intricate orientations of exponentially large one-inclusion structures, and familiar algorithmic principles such as proper learning and regularization remain poorly understood. Motivated by prior work, we ask whether learning reduces to proper learning—possibly over a larger hypothesis class—and whether proper or improper multiclass learning can ultimately be captured by suitable regularizers. Our primary results answer both questions negatively, resolving three open problems from prior work. First, we exhibit a learnable multiclass problem that cannot be embedded in any properly learnable class, meaning learning cannot be reduced to proper learning by enlarging the hypothesis class. Second, we demonstrate that proper learning can require training error and characterize this phenomenon precisely: every properly learnable class admits a proper learner making $o(m)$ errors on samples of size $m$, but every prescribed sublinear scale $a_m=o(m)$ is necessary for some properly learnable problem. Third, regularization is not a general learner: we exhibit a properly learnable class that cannot be learned by any Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) learner, and a learnable class that cannot be learned by any local regularizer. We complement these impossibility results with a positive theory that gives two sufficient conditions for SRM learnability and characterizes SRM representability through integrability of revealed preferences.
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All authors Julian Asilis, Shaddin Dughmi, Vatsal Sharan, Alec Sun, Shang-Hua Teng, Chang Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Sharp Minimax Regret for Infinite-Memory Logistic Prediction

We determine the minimax cumulative log-loss regret of a finite-alphabet, exogenously driven source with genuinely infinite input memory: independent Rademacher inputs $(U_t)$ are observed sequentially and the next binary mark has logit $\sum_{j\ge1}\theta_jU_{t+1-j}$, the unknown coefficients obeying a summable envelope $|\theta_j|\le r_j$, $\sum_jr_j\le B$. At horizon $T$, lag $j$ can move the logit by at most $r_j$ and is exercised in only $n_{T,j}=(T-j+1)_+$ rounds, and the two limitations combine into the sum $\Gamma_T(r)=\sum_{j\le T}\log(1+n_{T,j}r_j^{2})$. One coordinate-localised Bayesian mixture achieves $R_T(r)\le C\Gamma_T(r)$ for every summable envelope with $C$ universal. Our main result is a matching nonasymptotic converse for the canonical exponential and polynomial envelopes; its new ingredients are a modular finite-sample information bound for logistic experiments with an exogenous random design, and a conditioning estimate for the overlapping Toeplitz lag matrix obtained by exhibiting each off-diagonal Gram sum as a sum of independent Rademacher variables indexed by the edges of a forest, needing neither local asymptotic normality nor any spectral theorem for random Toeplitz matrices. So $\Gamma_T(r)$ is the minimax regret scale here, giving $\Theta(\alpha^{-1}\log^{2}T)$ for $r_j=Ae^{-\alpha j}$ and $\Theta(T^{1/(2s)})$ for $r_j=Aj^{-s}$, $s>1$ — the latter without the extra $(\log T)^{1-1/(2s)}$ factor any window-truncation analysis pays. We also show memory decay cannot determine regret, and that a profile-scaled online Newton predictor attains $O_B(\Gamma_T(r))$ in polynomial time per round.
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Machine Learning

A Single Suffix to Break Them All: Basin-Aware Jailbreaks for Merged Model Families

Model merging enables combining multiple fine-tuned models without additional training, but its safety implications remain poorly understood. Prior work primarily attributes merging risks to unsafe constituent models, implicitly assuming that merging individually aligned models preserves safety. In contrast, we show that model merging reveals a previously overlooked jailbreak risk rooted in the pretrained foundation model, even when all constituent models are individually safety-aligned. Motivated by this observation, we study a new threat setting where an attacker constructs jailbreak prompts that generalize across merged models sharing the same pretrained backbone, without access to the exact merging coefficients or constituent checkpoints. To exploit this phenomenon, we propose Basin-Aware Jailbreak (BAJ), which formulates jailbreak generation as a min–max optimization over the merging space to produce transferable adversarial suffixes across merged model families. Experiments across diverse backbones and merging settings show that BAJ achieves consistently high transfer success rates and remains effective under existing defenses.
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All authors Yu Zhe, Yixin Tan, Junhao Wei, Wang Chen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Systematic Literature Review of Machine Learning Models and Applications for Text Recognition

Optical Character Recognition (OCR) for text recognition using machine vision has significantly improved, particularly when handling heterogeneous textual data. Traditional OCR models struggle with script variations, writing styles, and degraded documents. Advancements in technology are leading to new AI models with improved architecture for handling multiple languages and complex data formats. Despite this progress, a comprehensive evaluation of OCR advancements remains limited. Based on the established preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, this literature review presents an extensive assessment of OCR research to trace the evolution of AI models over the past decade. It explores the transition in AI models, application domains, data types, linguistic coverage, and challenges. Through a detailed analysis of 97 selected studies published during January 2015 - January 2025, key OCR models are identified, and their performance, strengths, and limitations are analyzed. The findings highlight how OCR technologies have evolved to address structured and unstructured text, scene text recognition, and multilingual processing. Unresolved challenges include limited resources for underrepresented languages, high variability in handwritten text, visual similarity among characters, and constraints in real-time OCR applications. To address these issues, several promising approaches are proposed. Key suggestions include self-supervised learning, multimodal AI, automated machine learning (AutoML), AI-assisted postprocessing, tiny machine learning (TinyML), and the creation of joint corpora for script matching. The future recommendations aim to enhance OCR accuracy and tackle the challenges identified for real-time industrial applications. This study will guide future research and establish a foundation for OCR field.
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All authors Nuzhat Khan, Ab Al-Hadi Ab Rahman, Shahriyar Masud Rizvi, Ibrahim Yousef Alshareef, Muhammad Nadzir Marsono, Muhammad Paend Bakht, Mohd Shahrizal Rusli, Shahidatul Sadiah

Machine Learning

A Unified Framework for Fair and Personalized Decentralized Learning under Communication Constraints

Decentralized learning systems aim to collaboratively train models across multiple clients without relying on a central coordinator. While decentralization improves scalability, privacy, and robustness, it also exacerbates three fundamental challenges: statistical heterogeneity across clients, fairness in client-level performance, and stringent communication constraints. This raises a natural question: how fair can decentralized learning be under limited communication? We address this question by presenting a unified framework for decentralized learning under communication constraints, bringing together graph-based personalization, agnostic fairness, and compressed event-triggered communication. Specifically, we propose a new algorithm DMFL-SQ, a decentralized multi-task learning algorithm that couples personalized model training over a communication graph with an agnostic mixture fairness objective, while reducing communication through sparsification, quantization, and event-triggered synchronization. We establish convergence guarantees for general non-convex objectives and show that DMFL-SQ achieves an $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ rate in expected squared Moreau-envelope stationarity despite sparse, quantized, and event-triggered communication. We further derive PAC-Bayes generalization guarantees for the fairness-aware mixture objective. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and the real heterogeneous MUSMET EEG dataset demonstrate that DMFL-SQ substantially reduces communication while maintaining predictive performance and improving fairness across clients. Together, our theoretical and empirical results show that personalization, fairness, and communication efficiency can be jointly achieved in decentralized learning while preserving the dominant convergence rate.
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Machine Learning

Bayesian methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for curve reconstruction and point cloud data analysis

Point-cloud data routinely captured by modern imaging and sensor technologies provide detailed geometric descriptions of objects and environments, but their analysis is hindered by large data volumes, localization noise, and missing information. In addition, existing point-cloud reconstruction pipelines typically return a single best-fit structure without uncertainty quantification. We introduce a fully Bayesian framework for representing point-cloud data and reconstructing closed curves, in which observed points are modeled as noisy perturbations of latent locations constrained to lie on the underlying curve that is regularized by a non-parametric prior. Posterior inference in our framework is carried out using a series of Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers tailored to point-cloud characteristics. Numerical experiments, including synthetic examples and real-world LiDAR datasets, show accurate reconstructions and quantified uncertainty over the recovered curves.
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Machine Learning

Shared Actors Need Not Share Critics: Effects of Value Mismatch in Parallel Reinforcement Learning

When a single policy is trained in parallel across multiple environments of the same task, such as procedurally generated levels, randomized dynamics, or curricula, implementations commonly use one critic across all sampled environments. Yet different environments can assign different expected returns to the same input visible to the critic. A critic without environment information must then reconcile distinct value targets, systematically shifting the sampled advantages within individual environments. Using illustrative bandit models with multiple environments and a common optimal arm, we characterize how this value mismatch redistributes sampled policy updates, reinforcing unhelpful actions while attenuating or even reversing useful ones. The oracle processes using no baseline, the shared value, or the value specific to the sampled environment have the same mean logit update at a fixed policy and converge to the same optimal policy, yet their realized learning paths can differ sharply. The analysis motivates a minimal intervention: give only a logged environment index to the critic so that it can separate the value targets. Controlled CartPole and MuJoCo experiments expose the predicted shifted values, advantages, and performance gaps. In the more complex BipedalWalker and Procgen settings, the same intervention yields more stable learning and higher returns. Across all $16$ Procgen games, the multihead conditional critic improves aggregate normalized return on $600$ unseen levels per game by $40.8\%$. In conclusion, the theory identifies value mismatch as a direct mechanism through which critic sharing can degrade stochastic learning dynamics, not captured by scalar estimator variance alone, and the experiments show that conditioning on an index is broadly effective in parallel reinforcement learning.
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All authors Zhenya Liu, Yang Meng, Zhuokai Zhao, Xuefeng Liu, Yuxin Chen

Wednesday 26 August

Machine Learning

LACRM: LLM-Guided Mining of Directed Advertiser Competition Relationships in E-Commerce Advertising

In e-commerce advertising, ad platforms typically fail to model the externalities among advertisers when making optimization decisions: an advertiser's actual performance is largely shaped by rivals competing for the same users; these rivals typically operate in overlapping product categories and at comparable budget scales. However, capturing this rivalry as an explicit, reusable signal is challenging because it is directed, multi-faceted, and partially observable. Existing paradigms such as interaction graphs, taxonomy rules, and single-embedding models do not fully capture these properties. In this paper, we propose LACRM (LLM-driven Advertiser Competition Relationship Mining), a novel framework that constructs directed competition graphs with continuous edge intensities via a three-stage pipeline. LACRM moves beyond symmetric similarity through LLM-driven role-separated profiling, which enables asymmetric multi-route retrieval to uncover both realized and latent rivals. The framework further incorporates listwise learning-to-rank aligned with temporal auction behavior to accurately model directed competition intensity. In offline retrieval experiments on an industrial benchmark, LACRM outperforms strong directed GNN baselines and ablation variants. Multi-LLM and human studies provide complementary evidence that the recovered latent rivals reflect meaningful market competition rather than merely model-generated artifacts. In production A/B tests, LACRM-guided bidding and incentive allocation increase advertising revenue by 1.73% and 1.14%, respectively. The results demonstrate the practical value of explicit competition modeling in large-scale advertising systems.
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All authors Xiang Shi, Yitian Kou, Bing Li, Shengsheng Niu, Chun Gan, Linghui Meng, Jie He, Zhangang Lin, Ching Law

Machine Learning

Seasonal and Quantum-inspired Models for Neutron Monitor Time Series Forecasting

We present a focused and reproducible study of multi-horizon forecasting on the Lomnicky Stit neutron monitor (LMKS) time series. Our evaluation suite covers simple seasonal baselines, modern deep sequence models, and functional and quantum-inspired architectures, including Seasonal Naive, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), N-BEATS, Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN), and two quantum-inspired variants, QiLSTM and QiKAN. We describe the dataset characteristics, diagnostic analysis, preprocessing pipeline, and training procedures, and report aggregate point-forecast performance using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) for all evaluated models. Our quick-run results indicate that the quantum-inspired KAN variant, QiKAN, achieves the lowest aggregate forecasting error among the evaluated configurations, while the simple Seasonal Naive baseline remains remarkably competitive. These results suggest that, for highly periodic scientific monitoring time series, models incorporating strong seasonal or low-dimensional functional priors can match or outperform substantially more complex sequence architectures. The findings motivate further investigation of parsimonious and decomposable function approximators for forecasting periodic scientific signals.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Task-Resolved Fisher Spectroscopy for Quantum Reservoir Computing

Quantum reservoir computing (QRC) uses fixed quantum dynamics to encode a time series and trains only a classical readout, but a benchmark capacity alone does not reveal whether task information is lost in the reservoir, the measurement, feature compression, or finite sampling. We introduce task-resolved Fisher spectroscopy, in which prediction targets define orthonormal score coordinates on the stationary distribution of input histories. Reweighting labeled histories along these scores generates an exactly affine family of reservoir states and measurement outcomes. In the same coordinates, we obtain a many-body Fisher-information hierarchy relating the state quantum Fisher information, the Fisher information of the complete measurement record, and moment matrices retained through many-body order $r$. The quadratic form of each moment matrix is exactly the stationary capacity of the optimal linear readout, while a finite-measurement extension predicts the approach from one-shot records to ideal expectation-value features. The measurement-level quantities require only stationary labeled records and measured outcome strings, not an input model or quantum-state tomography. In a five-spin open reservoir, interactions route fourth-order temporal information into higher-body correlations, so low-order compression can incur orders-of-magnitude sampling overhead even when a conventional parity target remains accessible. For correlated inputs and outputs, record-defined task scores predict held-out capacities, the required feature order, and measurement-budget dependence; optimizing the local measurement axis recovers otherwise hidden task information. The framework connects benchmark performance to experimentally actionable diagnoses of reservoir encoding, measurement choice, classical representation, and shot allocation.
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Machine Learning

Classifier-Dependent Benefits of Pseudo-Labeling for Semi-Supervised Android Malware Attribution

Detecting and classifying Android malware families remains challenging due to high feature dimensionality, class imbalance, and the high cost of expert-labeled data. Semi-supervised learning (SSL) offers a way to leverage unlabeled samples, but prior works rarely test whether SSL benefits generalize across classifier types or report statistical significance. We present a systematic evaluation of pseudo-labeling across six classifiers (LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, MLP, and SVM) on the CICMalDroid 2020 dataset, using five-fold stratified cross-validation and paired t-tests across five labeled ratios (1-20%). We find that SSL benefit is strongly classifier-dependent: SVM shows the largest significant gain (+4.4% accuracy at 5% labels, p = 0.0028), LightGBM improves modestly (+0.8 to +1.3% at 2-5% labels), while Random Forest is significantly harmed at low label ratios (-3.1% at 1% labels). Per-class analysis reveals SSL disproportionately benefits the hardest-to-classify families, with Adware F1 improving by +13.8 percentage points versus only +0.8 for the already well-classified Benign class. We further show that approximately 800 labeled samples (10% of the dataset) yield near-optimal performance across all classifiers. These findings offer practical guidance on when and with which classifier pseudo-labeling is worthwhile for Android malware classification.
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Machine Learning

When Is Language-Model Advice Worth Buying? A Matched-Budget Study of Predictive Gating in Reinforcement Learning

Language-model advice can accelerate reinforcement learning, but every call has a price, and a returned suggestion may be unparsable, unsafe to execute, or no better than the agent's own action. We introduce certified predictive advice gating, a cost-aware controller that forecasts possible advisor responses, values the action actually executed after parsing, execution checks, and cache reuse, and requests advice only when a calibrated lower bound on that value covers the price. Our analysis separates the gap of executed advice, cumulative regret under an intervention-stable fallback, and myopic acquisition loss. On BabyAI GoToObj with Qwen2.5-1.5B and 7B advisors, the gate improves return over no advice by paired $0.029\pm0.016$ and $0.030\pm0.015$ while using more than $97\%$ fewer calls than always asking. Matched-budget comparisons, however, do not resolve an advantage over an early query schedule, so the gain reflects economical advice volume rather than demonstrated state selection. Groupwise calibration raises coverage on positive-value opportunities from $0.47$ to $0.85$, still below the $0.90$ target. A separate headroom-aware gate reports paired gains over an early schedule of $0.032\pm0.012$ and $0.029\pm0.011$ on GoToObj and $0.027\pm0.011$ and $0.028\pm0.012$ on GoToObjDoor, and adds BabyAI and ALFWorld success, decision-stratum coverage, and component timing. These results separate return gains, query placement, and execution screening; finite-sample deployment guarantees remain unestablished.
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All authors Ibne Farabi Shihab, Md Najmus Swaqeeb, Abu Sa-Adat Mohamed Moon-Im Al Ahsan, Joyanta Jyoti Mondal

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Evaluation of Multi-Turn Consistency in LLM Agents: Survival Analysis and Failure-Rationale Taxonomy

Large language model (LLM) agents may perform well on isolated tasks yet drift into inconsistency over extended interaction. We evaluate temporal consistency in a controlled 20-step multi-agent setting inspired by delayed-gratification studies. At each step, an agent chooses between continuing to delay a reward or claiming it immediately (terminating the episode). Across a full-factorial manipulation of social visibility (private vs public), persona stressors, and deliberation policy, we run 84,540 trajectories spanning 8 model families. Treating the first reward-claim as a time-to-event outcome, we estimate Kaplan-Meier survival curves and fit discrete-time hazard regression to quantify how experimental factors shift failure risk over time. Then, to analyze rationales and language patterns associated with failure, we build a seven-category taxonomy from 13,780 deliberation traces from agents who choose to terminate the episode, using an LLM-assisted labeling paired with human audit ($\kappa=0.83$). Rationale profiles change systematically with time and context: early failures are more impulse-driven, later failures more fatigue- and cost-benefit-framed, while public settings increase norm-oriented justifications. We also find a deliberation-inconsistency association: among failures, longer deliberation correlates with higher rates of intra-rationale contradiction (simultaneous pro-delay and pro-claim statements), challenging the assumption that more reasoning text implies greater consistency. Together, the survival and rationale analyses reveal distinct temporal reliability regimes and model-specific "failure fingerprints", offering an evaluation lens for diagnosing inconsistency in multi-turn agent behavior.
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Machine Learning

BLADE: Distilled LLM Regularization for Calibrated Knowledge Graph Completion

Knowledge graph completion models optimize ranking, although many downstream applications require calibrated probabilities. We present BLADE, a variational model that separates latent truth from graph recording and distills offline language-model judgments into a frozen teacher regularizer. The LLM is absent during inference. Posterior samples provide predictive probabilities and epistemic uncertainty, while the compact teacher remains available only as an optional triage factor. Across five benchmarks, BLADE remains competitive under a common ranking protocol and reduces adaptive ECE by a macro-average of 60.1% relative to deep ensembles and 78.1% relative to temperature-scaled RotatE. On identical FB15k-237 candidate sets, BLADE also improves ECE, Brier score, and NLL over validation-selected histogram binning and a matched generative ComplEx2 model, with these improvements persisting on a prespecified near-miss pool. Under controlled injected missingness, the full triage score achieves a mean AUC-PR of 0.863, compared with 0.805 for its strongest non-teacher variant. Leakage stress tests show that aligned semantics matter, but they cannot exclude knowledge acquired during LLM pretraining. We therefore claim calibration only for the declared candidate distributions, not for all unobserved triples.
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All authors Ibne Farabi Shihab, Rabeya Bosri Tamanna, Abdo El Karaky, Sanjeda Akter, Anuj Sharma

Machine Learning

Quantifying Protocol-Induced Uncertainty in Comparative Predictive-Model Evaluation: Evidence from Large-Scale Daily PM10 Forecasting

Comparative studies of predictive models often end by ranking candidate models, yet these rankings depend on evaluation protocols whose influence is rarely treated as a source of uncertainty. We formalize this problem as protocol-induced ranking uncertainty and introduce a framework that compares ranking displacement caused by switching protocols with displacement produced by conventional choices within a fixed protocol. We quantify these effects using the Protocol Sensitivity Score (PSS) and a full-refit intraprotocol reference. We validate the framework in a large-scale sequential prediction study of daily PM10. Static-split and rolling-origin evaluation are compared across 425 European background stations and 365 US EPA monitors. Switching protocols produces mean PSS values of 0.801 and 0.772 and changes the selected model at 35.3% and 31.5% of stations, respectively. In Europe, intraprotocol perturbations with identical scored targets produce PSS values of 0.072 and 0.230, with winner-swap rates of 0.8% and 4.9%. Between-protocol displacement is therefore substantially larger than the selected within-protocol references. Expanding the candidate set from three to nine models increases the between-protocol winner-swap rate to 60.2% in Europe. The pattern also persists under a frozen protocol applied to held-out background and non-background stations. These results show that model-selection conclusions can depend materially on legitimate evaluation choices. We recommend reporting ranking stability under a small set of defensible intraprotocol perturbations alongside claims of model superiority.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

What Does Chain-of-Thought Entropy Measure? A Channel Audit of Scaffolding, Routing, and Content

Entropy over chain-of-thought tokens decides which tokens receive the policy gradient, which get pruned, and whether a run has collapsed, yet each such statistic reads a next-token distribution mixing three choices: whether to emit connective scaffolding, which connective, and what the substantive continuation should be. Designating a scaffold vocabulary subset separates the three, exactly, for entropy, Kullback–Leibler divergence, and the first-order entropy velocity of a softmax policy. We prove the raw and content conventions disagree about which position is the larger fork on an explicit open region, and bound answer diversity by the content channel plus a leakage term a measured witness certifies. Across twenty-three configurations the scaffold side carries up to 41% of the raw high-entropy set; on a matched-tokenizer ladder, coupling changes only at the math-corpus step while the scaffold's entropy share keeps growing through distillation; a closed-form forecast from one channel correlation tracks selection retention over a 54-point range to five points, unfitted. On compression, the content convention beats raw surprisal in every cell; an answer-leakage audit then corrects our own headline control: re-fed chains earn a quarter to a half of their accuracy from restated answers, and once stripped, no token scorer beats a random contiguous block.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Quantifying Hidden Salt for Precision Healthcare: Sodium Assessment via Joint-Factor Retrieval and Chain-of-Thought Inference

Precision healthcare, particularly for conditions like hypertension and cardiovascular disease, necessitates monitoring of dietary sodium intake. However, tracking this is hindered by the prevalence of hidden salt in cooking, such as sodium in soy sauce and ketchup. While recipes offer a valuable data source for dietary analysis, sodium-rich seasonings are frequently omitted or described ambiguously in instructions. To solve this issue, we propose SALT, a Sodium Assessing & Level Tracking framework adopting an RAG framework to assess sodium content in recipes. Our framework first introduces a Joint-Factor Embedding Retrieval module to locate similar recipes with specified sodium content for addressing the lack of contextual references. These retrieved samples provide contexts for subsequent inference. Then we design a structured 4-hop Chain-of-Thought inference module to refine the vague estimation from language models through a multi-step sodium estimation. To facilitate our study, we further construct a recipe dataset SALT54k with $54,151$ entries labeled with sodium quantities across $11$ common seasonings. Results on SALT54k demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in sodium estimation. Additional real-world validations confirm the effectiveness of our method, demonstrating its potential as a practical solution for AI-assisted precision healthcare.
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All authors Mingyu Huang, Weiqing Min, Yuehui Fang, Yuna He, Shuqiang Jiang

Machine Learning

Multiple latent orderings better predict language model preferences

Language models are frequently employed in settings where they are asked to make value judgments and choices. These observed choices often exhibit intransitivity: A model may prefer item $A$ to $B$ and $B$ to $C$, while also preferring $C$ to $A$. Existing work that models LLM preferences treats such inconsistencies as sampling noise around a single latent ordering. We instead propose that intransitivity reflects the aggregation of multiple latent, internally consistent orderings. We first show that observed inconsistencies cannot be explained by a single ordering under any monotone link function. We then introduce a noise-augmented mixture Bradley-Terry (MBT) model that infers latent preference components from repeated pairwise comparisons. Across seven models and four tasks, a mixture of orderings often explains structural inconsistencies better than single-utility models. We find that aggregate preferences often hide underlying preference heterogeneity. A case study on Moral Machine dilemmas shows that models which disagree on aggregate orderings can still share latent components. Together, these results suggest that LLMs reflect plural preferences. Alignment and evaluation pipelines that treat LLM preferences as a single function, therefore, risk averaging over coherent orderings that different users may endorse differently.
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Machine Learning

Role-Aware Morgan Fingerprints for Reaction Yield Prediction

Predicting reaction yield from molecular structure and reaction context can cut experimental trial-and-error and speed up condition screening in synthetic chemistry. Recent methods for this task use learned representations such as graph neural networks or Transformer encoders over reaction SMILES (Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System), but these approaches carry heavy preprocessing overhead and can break when input formatting is inconsistent. We propose MFP, a reaction yield prediction method built on role-aware Morgan fingerprints where count-based circular fingerprints are computed for each reaction component, aggregated by chemical role (reactant, reagent, product), and combined with transformation-sensitive difference features into a fixed-length reaction descriptor fed to a feed-forward neural regressor. We test MFP against state of the art methods such as YieldBERT (with and without data augmentation) and GNAN (graph neural network) on the Suzuki-Miyaura and Buchwald-Hartwig benchmarks using a shared preprocessing and evaluation protocol. MFP reaches R2 = 0.878 on Suzuki-Miyaura and R2 = 0.969 on Buchwald-Hartwig while training an order of magnitude faster than graph- or Transformer-based alternatives. A formal complexity analysis confirms that MFP folds all representation cost into a one-time preprocessing step, removing the per-epoch message-passing overhead that graph methods carry. An ablation over fingerprint radius and folded vector length shows that radius-2 representations at nBits =2048 give the best balance of accuracy, speed, and cross-split stability on both datasets. These results establish MFP as an effective, reproducible, and efficient baseline for reaction yield prediction.
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All authors Chinmay Mirji, Prashant Shekhar, Foram Madiyar, Hao Peng

Machine Learning

Clustering-Based Collective Anomaly Detection in IoT Systems: A Graph Neural Network Approach

The rapid advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technology has led to the widespread deployment of smart, interconnected devices across a range of domains. However, this expansion has also resulted in a substantial increase in network traffic, creating more opportunities for malicious actors to launch cyberattacks and compromise sensitive information, thereby increasing the need for effective anomaly detection. The state-of-the-art in anomaly detection has predominantly focused on point anomalies. In contrast, the detection of collective anomalies remains relatively under-explored in the literature. In this paper, we introduce Unsupervised Graph Collective Anomaly Detection (UGCAD), a novel frame- work designed to identify collective anomalies in IoT network traffic. Unlike many existing methods, UGCAD operates on graph-structured data without any prior knowledge of group labels or membership. It leverages a variational graph autoencoder (VGAE) to learn the graph representation, which is subsequently used to enhance a clustering algorithm for effective grouping of nodes. To detect collective anomalies, clusters identified as normal are first aggregated and refined, after which anomaly scores are applied to detect collective anomalies. Extensive experiments conducted on the CICIoT2023 and ToN-IoT network datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of UGCAD in both clustering and collective anomaly detection (CAD). Furthermore, comparative evaluations against several traditional and state-of-the-art clustering-based CAD approaches confirm the superiority of UGCAD in accurately detecting collective anomalies.
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All authors Dalila Khettaf, Djamel Djenouri, Zeinab Rezaeifar, Youcef Djenouri

Machine Learning

TARGet: Topology-Aware Fusion-based Radio Frequency Circuit Functional Modeling using Graph Neural Networks

Automatic synthesis of analog and Radio Frequency (RF) circuits is an emerging area that requires an efficient circuit modeling method. In recent years, Machine Learning (ML) solutions have played a promising role in this regard. However, many existing ML approaches require separate training data for each circuit topology, even when a single circuit component is added or removed. In addition, they overlook circuit topology information, which limits their ability to capture complex component interactions. Furthermore, they rely on fully connected neural networks with flat feature representations, which require substantial amounts of training data. In this work, we propose an open-source topology-aware RF circuit modeling method, TARGet. Our model considers the circuit at two levels: sub-circuits and the overall circuit topology. At the sub-circuit level, TARGet leverages S-parameter representations to capture sub-circuit behavior rather than relying on individual circuit components, providing a reusable behavioral abstraction for RF building blocks. Moreover, TARGet explicitly incorporates circuit topology information into the model, enabling it to learn across multiple topologies. TARGet introduces a novel fusion-based architecture that integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and sub-circuit connectivity-aware neural networks to improve data efficiency. Experimental evaluation across multiple RF circuit topologies demonstrates that TARGet achieves sub-1% prediction error while reducing the required training data by up to 35.5x compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) approaches. Furthermore, TARGet achieves 9.7x higher prediction accuracy under a strict 1% error threshold relative to SOTA models. A held-out matching-network evaluation further demonstrates zero-shot transfer to an unseen sub-circuit topology, where TARGet reduces NMAE by up to 45%.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

A Multi-Agent Pipeline for Source-Grounded Synthetic Note Generation from Longitudinal Structured EHR

Structured EHR is abundant but sparse, coded, and difficult to use directly for note-centric clinical modeling. We present MedNotes, a multi-agent synthetic data generation pipeline that converts longitudinal structured EHR into source-grounded clinical note representations under explicit quality control. MedNotes treats structured-data-to-text synthesis as a closed-loop agentic process: a generator proposes a note, evaluator agents diagnose factual, coverage, structural, and hallucination-related failures, and a router accepts, revises, or rejects the draft. On 1,485 EHRSHOT encounters, MedNotes achieves a 91.4% pass rate, with mean factual accuracy of 0.980, completeness of 99.1%, structural fidelity of 0.761, and 0.028 critical hallucinations per encounter. Iterative refinement improves acceptance from 69.4% to 91.4%. The resulting synthetic corpus improves downstream CPT prediction and paragraph-level section prediction when combined with limited real data.
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All authors Nina Fatehi, Reihaneh Hassanzadeh, Meysam Ghaffari, Animesh Agarwal, Carlos Morato

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Beyond Raw Context Transfer: Representation-based Federated Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) improves the factuality of large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) by grounding generation in external knowledge. However, most existing RAG frameworks assume a centralized retrieval corpus, which is often impractical in sensitive domains such as healthcare, where data are inherently distributed and raw content cannot be directly shared across institutions. Recent efforts on decentralized RAG primarily follow prompt-based paradigms that exchange raw, human-readable retrieved content, leading to substantial inference-time computational overhead and direct exposure of retrieved information. To address these limitations, we propose Representation-based Federated RAG (FedRepRAG), a decentralized RAG framework that keeps raw documents at their owning clients and exchanges only compact latent representations during cross-client retrieval. To integrate retrieved knowledge, we introduce a collaboratively trained projector that converts retrieval embeddings into generator-compatible representation tokens for a frozen LLM/VLM backbone. Experiments across decentralized visual question answering (VQA) and question answering (QA) benchmarks show that FedRepRAG consistently outperforms direct inference and local retrieval baselines while substantially reducing retrieval-context length and inference-time computational overhead compared with raw-context transfer. Further analyses confirm the importance of query-relevant retrieved representations and characterize the residual representation-level leakage associated with representation exchange. Overall, FedRepRAG provides an effective and efficient framework for federated RAG without transferring raw retrieved content.
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All authors Can Peng, Yu Liu, Yingyu Yang, Anjie Le, Yuyuan Liu, Qianye Yang, J. Alison Noble

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Didactic knowledge or Clinical Cases? How Data Types Shape Medical Large Language Models

Medical large language models are commonly trained on mixtures of didactic data (e.g., textbooks) and clinical data (e.g., patient records), yet how these data types differentially shape model capabilities remains unclear. We address this issue with token-matched experiments that vary the didactic-to-clinical ratio and analyze how data composition affects performance, capability profiles, and error patterns across knowledge-intensive and clinic-oriented tasks. We uncover an asymmetric transfer across task types: clinical data improves clinic-oriented tasks while remaining competitive on knowledge-intensive ones, whereas didactic data mainly improves knowledge-intensive tasks. Error analysis suggests a knowing-doing gap, where improvements in knowledge recall do not reliably generalize to clinical reasoning. We further observe that modest amounts of clinical data yield most of the gains on EHR-grounded tasks, while the optimal mixture ratio varies with the knowledge and clinical reasoning demands of downstream tasks. These findings suggest that medical LLM data curation should be application-driven, with higher proportions of clinical data preferred for reasoning-intensive use cases.
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All authors Yuzheng Fan, Haochun Wang, Sendong Zhao, Xiao Han, Ming Ma, Bing Qin