Papers

Constrained optimization extends classical optimization by integrating side information, making it widely applicable across scientific and engineering domains. Consider a setting where we measure variables at different physical locations. When grouping these measurements, we often want clusters that are both internally similar and physically coherent. Thus, we have a constrained clustering problem where the constraint models coherence. Motivated by an application in geodesy, where contiguous regions of the sea surface must be identified for principal component analysis, we introduce the Connected Subspace Clustering problem: given high-dimensional points and a connectivity graph, partition them into $k$ connected clusters, minimizing their total squared distance to the clusters' best-fit $m'$-dimensional affine subspaces. We prove that, even for $m' = 0$ and a grid graph with holes, the problem is NP-hard to approximate within $\Omega(n^{1/2-\varepsilon})$ for every $\varepsilon>0$, where $n$ is the number of measurements. We then introduce an efficient Lloyd-style heuristic that alternates subspace fitting with an iterative merging procedure to enforce connectivity. Our method returns exactly $k$ connected regions by construction, whereas unconstrained methods leave up to $1{,}966$ disconnected fragments at higher cost. In a study of 160 configurations on global sea level time series, our merging-based repair is the strongest of four strategies in $73.75\%$ of cases, and consistently outperforms competitors such as (connected) Ward's method across all tested cluster counts. The resulting regions isolate signals aligning with climate indices such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Although developed for geodesy, the approach applies to other spatially embedded multivariate time series, such as climate fields, remote sensing, neuroimaging, and sensor networks.

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have emerged as leading methods for tabular predictive tasks, leveraging in-context learning to predict on new data without task-specific training. Despite the increased use of TFMs in high-stakes decision-making, their fairness properties remain largely unexplored. In this work, we incorporate fairness constraints directly into TFM training, enabling fair predictions in a single forward pass. Our approach addresses two key challenges: limited access to sensitive attributes in training data, and the incompatibility of existing fairness techniques with the in-context learning paradigm. We propose FairTFM, a scalable training strategy based on synthetic fairness tasks and a fairness-aware architecture using a gradient reversal layer, which encourages the model to learn representations invariant to sensitive attributes. Experiments on 132 fairness tasks show consistent improvements in fairness while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Evolutionary feature construction has shown strong promise in symbolic regression by automatically discovering informative transformations of input features that enhance a simple base learner. However, existing approaches often lack explicit mechanisms to preserve important constructed features discovered during evolution, and valuable genetic material can be lost when genetic operators disrupt effective features. This paper introduces an adaptive protection mechanism that leverages feature importance metrics to selectively preserve constructed features during evolution. The mechanism provides stronger protection for more important constructed features while still allowing less important features to be modified and to incorporate useful building blocks from more important features. We evaluate the approach using multiple feature importance calculation methods and demonstrate its robustness across different base learners. Experimental results on 98 regression benchmark datasets show that the proposed mechanism consistently improves solution quality over baseline approaches, and experiments on two credit classification datasets demonstrate that the method also extends effectively to improve search effectiveness beyond symbolic regression.

Load imbalance poses a major bottleneck to the efficiency of expert parallelism in distributed inference of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. The most heavily loaded rank stalls global execution due to skewed routing distributions, directly increasing latency. While offline expert placement can alleviate persistent imbalance, practical multi-task serving workloads exhibit layer- and batch-dependent routing dynamics, making online load balancing indispensable. Existing approaches rely on routing statistics collected after each MoE router, requiring expert weight load or migration to begin only after routing decisions are available, consequently placing migration overhead on the inference critical path. In this work, we observe that online balancing can instead be largely overlapped with computation before target routing (e.g., attention), if routing distributions can be predicted accurately in advance. Therefore, we propose FreeBalance, a lossless online load-balancing framework that overlaps expert migration with preceding computation stages via residual workload prediction. FreeBalance leverages cross-layer similarities in hidden representations within the residual network to build a lightweight workload predictor. This enables proactive expert migration planning before routing decisions are available, creating substantial overlap between weight transfer and computation-heavy pre-routing stages. Furthermore, a cost model constrains the number of swaps to fully hide the synchronization overhead within the available window. Experiments across models and datasets show that FreeBalance reduces the max-to-mean rank load ratio by 32.8% and end-to-end prefill latency by 13.1%. Specifically, our method hides balancing overhead of an average of 5.1 experts per layer, which would otherwise account for about 8.5% of the critical-path latency.

Banks analyse sequential financial transaction data to perform many tasks, including fraud prevention, credit risk assessment and offer personalization. To improve the predictive accuracy of these tasks, Payments Foundation Models encode transaction sequence data as rich contextual embeddings, which can then be provided to task-specific models as features. However, these Foundation Models are not designed for flexible zero-shot reasoning across novel downstream prediction tasks, limiting their adaptability and utility. Existing LLM-based approaches to zero-shot prediction often fail to fully exploit the predictive signal within transaction data, while relying on costly text serialization or task-specific architectures that scale poorly. To address these limitations, we present the Multimodal Instruction Network for Transactions (MINT), a framework that connects a pretrained transaction sequence encoder to a decoder-only LLM through lightweight embedding injection, transaction-language alignment, and instruction tuning. We find that MINT achieves state-of-the-art predictive question-answering performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution questions, while substantially reducing input tokens, latency, and memory consumption compared to text-serialization baselines. Through comprehensive analyses of representations, alignment strategies, training data, and history length, we establish that compact transaction embeddings are a superior approach to transaction representation than text serialization for multimodal reasoning and zero-shot prediction tasks.

The key-value (KV) cache stores information from past tokens and is a major memory bottleneck in long-context inference. Existing quantization methods address this bottleneck by representing the KV cache uniformly with lower-precision data types and designing quantization schemes to minimize reconstruction error in the cache itself, without accounting for how that error propagates through attention mechanisms. We prove that, under a white-noise quantization model, the expected attention-aware distortion decomposes into additive key and value contributions that factor across tokens and channels. Building on transform coding and reverse water-filling, which are classical tools from signal processing and rate-distortion theory, we introduce Attention-Aware Transform Coding (AATC), which allocates bits over a calibration set to minimize attention-aware distortion. On Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct, evaluated across LongBench, RULER, GSM8K, MMLU-Pro, and MATH-500, our method achieves near-lossless accuracy at approximately $5.8\times$ compression, whereas each baseline degrades in at least some settings.

Tabular anomaly detection is dominated by classical density-proxy methods (Isolation Forest, OCSVM, LOF), reconstruction-based detectors (Autoencoders, VAEs), and modern non-parametric scorers (COPOD, ECOD, Deep SVDD), all of which approximate the inlier distribution only indirectly; explicit energy-based models are largely absent. Motivated by the recent revival of EBMs in deep learning (e.g., Energy-Based Transformers, JEPA), we revisit the classical Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) for this task and hypothesize that its mean-field energy combines more effectively with a reconstruction-based score than same-lineage pairs do. We evaluate a two-hidden-layer DBM on two tabular benchmarks spanning distinct domains (UCI Bank Marketing and NSL-KDD) against eight classical and modern baselines across twenty random seeds. The DBM mean-field energy matches the strongest baseline (the Autoencoder) on Bank Marketing and statistically beats it on NSL-KDD, while significantly outperforming the remaining seven on both datasets. When fused with the Autoencoder via rank fusion, the DBM energy yields a statistically significant improvement on both datasets (AUROC=+0.014, p<0.01 on Bank Marketing; +0.002, p<0.001 on NSL-KDD); every non-DBM-derived base model instead fails to improve or significantly degrades the AE-paired ensemble. Our position is that classical EBMs, exemplified by the DBM, deserve a place in the tabular anomaly detection toolbox as a non-redundant complementary view to the reconstruction-based scores that dominate current practice.

Deep spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutions and attention mechanisms have demonstrated excellent performance in network-level traffic flow prediction, owing to their exceptional ability to capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Despite their predictive success, deployment of such models in safety-critical urban systems remains constrained by their inherent lack of transparency. Existing post-hoc diagnostic methods often struggle with spurious correlations and fail to unveil the intrinsic decision-making mechanisms governing traffic dynamics, resulting in suboptimal interpretability and limited operational trustworthiness. To address these challenges, this paper proposes the Structure-Guided Spatiotemporal Attention Graph Neural Network (SGSAN). Departing from traditional architectures that rely on unconstrained adaptive graphs, SGSAN explicitly learns a static Directed Dependency Graph (DDG) to identify the invariant macroscopic propagation paths of traffic states. We further introduce an InfoNCE-based soft-coupling mechanism that anchors the model's dynamic spatiotemporal attention to this structural prior, offering a mechanistic account of the model's decision-making process while ensuring robust forecasting by aligning attention-based reasoning with identified macroscopic dependencies and preventing over-reliance on ephemeral local noise. Furthermore, a decoupled two-stage optimization framework is developed to resolve the fundamental conflict between structural discovery and predictive error minimization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that SGSAN achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy while providing built-in interpretability that organically aligns with the physical logic of traffic networks.

Text-to-image diffusion models have two major drawbacks that severely limit their practical utility: (1) standard models lack an intrinsic mechanism for continuous, concept-specific guidance (e.g., for precisely controlling how aesthetically pleasing an image looks), and (2) they lack reliability for tasks requiring high local coherence (e.g., generating text or human hands). To tackle these issues, we introduce a novel notion of concept-wise mutual information and find large, concept-dependent differences between individual layers, demonstrating that the generation of specific structures is localized in distinct parts of the network. We exploit this insight by reinforcing the impact of concept-relevant layers in Concept Guidance (CoG), a precise, target-specific guidance method that works for models out-of-the-box without additional training, external models, gradients, or prompt engineering. CoG first quantifies each layer's concept-specific impact and then guides denoising using a weighted combination of predictions generated with concept-relevant layers skipped. We demonstrate performance increases across various targets and popular models like PixArt-alpha, SD3, SD3.5, and FLUX.1-dev. Code is available at https://github.com/CompVis/concept_guidance

Spectral filtering has been proposed as a route to regularization in quantum generative models: the quantum Fourier transform exposes the amplitude spectrum of a quantum circuit Born machine, and a diagonal filter suppresses the high frequencies associated with finite-sample noise, an operation whose classical counterpart seemingly requires manipulating an exponentially long amplitude vector. We examine whether this coherent operation produces anything that classical post-processing of samples from the unfiltered model cannot match. Measuring the filter against convolution with a symmetric probability kernel at matched sampling cost, which accounts for the post-selection overhead of attenuation, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the gap between the two to vanish. Magnitude (attenuating) filters obey a dichotomy: at a fixed affordability threshold, the filtered output is either a constant-size Fourier object with an efficient classical sampler, or the passband must widen until no fixed frequency is attenuated and the filter no longer smooths. In neither case does the filter create a quantum-classical separation. Whatever separation survives is inherited from the spectral phase of the input state. Numerical experiments on trained circuit Born machines confirm the classification and show that the deciding phases are invisible to the Born-rule training loss and set by the initialization. Within the diagonal family, pure phase filters remain the only spectral operations exempt from these constraints.

Mechanical ventilation is a critical life-support intervention, requiring dynamic adjustments to ventilator settings as a patient's condition evolves. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising framework for optimizing these sequential decisions, standard approaches rely primarily on structured electronic health record (EHR) data, missing crucial clinical context recorded in free-text notes. Integrating longitudinal clinical notes into RL state spaces is challenging because notes are heavily inflated by temporal redundancy, such as copy-forward text, templating, and repetitive documentation, which dilutes time-local updates and degrades state representation quality. To address this, we propose a redundancy-aware multimodal state representation framework that explicitly removes duplicated note text over time before policy learning. We evaluate two computationally efficient temporal decomposition strategies for removing duplicated note text: (1) an embedding-space decomposition using singular value decomposition on local history subspaces, and (2) an interpretable sentence-level diff operation that filters out previously documented sentences before text encoding. Using real-world ICU data, we demonstrate that state representations constructed by stripping temporal note redundancy significantly outperform both structured-only and raw-note baselines across multiple off-policy evaluation methods (Model-Based Rollouts, Fitted Q-Evaluation, Weighted Importance Sampling, and Weighted Doubly Robust Evaluation). Our findings show that explicitly isolating new clinical information from repeated note text yields higher-quality state representations and directly improves RL performance for clinical decision support.

The task of constructing vehicles optimal routes for pickup and delivery of goods is one of most promising tasks in the context of global urban population growth. Although this kind of problems with small size can be solved by various classical approaches, a fast (or realtime) route optimizer under the constraints of the real world (such as capacity and time windows constraints) for medium-large size problems still remains a highly challenging task. In this work we, for the first time, successfully applied a deep Reinforcing Learning approach (modified JAMPR model) to solve Pickup and Delivery problem with Capacity and Time Window constraints (CPDPTW). We obtained a robust model that gives a fast optimal solution for problems of small and medium size, and gives fast suboptimal solution for problems of larger (> 200) size.

The problem of route optimization with realistic constraints is becoming extremely relevant in the face of global urban population growth. While we are aware of approaches that theoretically provide an exact optimal solution, their application becomes challenging as the problem size increases because of exponential complexity. We investigate the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (CVRPTW) and compare solutions obtaining by exact solver SCIP with heuristic algorithms such as LKH, 2-OPT, 3-OPT, the ORTools framework, and the deep learning model JAMPR. We demonstrate that for problem of size 50 deep learning and classical heuristic solutions became close to SCIP exact solution but requires less time. Additionally for problems with size 100, SCIP exact methods around 13 times slower that neural and classical heuristics with the same route cost and on around 50% worse for the first feasible solution on the same time. To conduct experiments, we developed the Smart Routes platform for solving route optimization problems, which includes exact, heuristic, and deep learning models, and facilitates convenient integration of custom algorithms and datasets.

Autonomous pursuit-evasion is a fundamental challenge for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), requiring rapid decision-making under tightly coupled dynamics and continuously changing opponent behaviors. Traditional rule-based or differential-game approaches often struggle with high-dimensional aerial interactions and agile maneuvering. We present AgilePE, a complete system for autonomous UAV pursuit-evasion via self-play reinforcement learning. AgilePE integrates agile low-level control, competitive policy optimization, and sim-to-real deployment in a unified framework. The policy directly maps onboard state observations to Collective Thrust and Body Rates (CTBR) commands, enabling end-to-end agile maneuvering without intermediate trajectory planners or waypoint controllers. For training, we use competitive self-play with Prioritized Fictitious Self-Play (PFSP) and a diversified opponent pool, enabling agents to improve against historical policies while stabilizing optimization and reducing policy oscillation. This process leads to the emergence of sophisticated pursuit and evasion strategies. For real-world deployment, we develop a hardware-aligned simulation pipeline that models actuator-response dynamics, communication latency, and domain randomization. The learned policies transfer zero-shot to real quadrotors without task-specific tuning. Real-world experiments reproduce pursuit-evasion tactics observed in simulation, including rapid dodging and flanking, and demonstrate interactive two-agent zero-shot deployment.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can solve prediction tasks by unintentionally exploiting shortcuts—that is, edges, nodes, and features that correlate with but are not causal for the prediction—which compromise their reliability in out-of-distribution tasks. We introduce XIGL, an architecture-agnostic human-in-the-loop strategy for removing such shortcuts from GNNs. Our key insight is twofold. On the one hand, reliance on shortcuts can be detected by inspecting GNN explanations. On the other hand, once made aware of such shortcuts, sufficiently expert users can provide tailored corrective feedback, which helps deconfound the model. XIGL supports any query strategy; however, since corrective feedback can be expensive to acquire, we develop an active learning strategy for prioritizing explanations that are more likely to display shortcut behavior, lowering annotation and cognitive costs. We showcase the effectiveness of XIGL, including both existing and proposed explanation-based strategies, on several GNN architectures. Our implementation is available online.

Lagrangian modeling is vital to fluid dynamics, as it characterizes particle transport and complements the Eulerian representation. However, Lagrangian trajectories are less commonly available than Eulerian fields, while most neural operators are trained and evaluated primarily in the Eulerian representation. This mismatch motivates a new learning problem: can a model trained solely on Eulerian observations generalize zero-shot from Eulerian field prediction to Lagrangian particle rollout, without Lagrangian supervision or task-specific adaptation? To address this problem, we propose the Transferable Latent Operator (TLO), which learns a unified flow representation shared by Eulerian field prediction and Lagrangian particle rollout. TLO decouples latent flow evolution from coordinate-dependent decoding: querying the evolving latent representation at fixed spatial coordinates yields Eulerian fields, whereas querying velocities at particle positions and recursively updating these positions enables Lagrangian rollout. Across five fluid-dynamics benchmarks, TLO consistently outperforms existing neural operators in both Eulerian field prediction and zero-shot Lagrangian rollout, with further gains from limited Lagrangian fine-tuning.

As the integration of volatile renewable energy sources increases the strain on modern power grids, the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) for autonomous topological reconfiguration has emerged as a promising research field to keep strained grids stable and operational. Compared to traditional redispatching measures, topological actions offer a cheaper and more cost-effective way to manage grid congestion. However, their implementation is hindered by a vast combinatorial action space and strict operational constraints. This paper investigates the effectiveness of model-based AlphaZero-inspired approaches that utilize Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) for proactive grid management. We systematically evaluate how reward functions, observation density, and search guidance influence an agent's survivability. Our results demonstrate that the optimized AlphaZero approach achieves a peak survivability of 98.43%, significantly outperforming the proximal policy optimization (PPO) variant. We find that conducting the MCTS without guidance from a prior learned policy or value function can enhance training efficiency, and that a straightforward binary survival reward provides more effective search guidance than complex, multi-objective functions. Our findings demonstrate that while AlphaZero is a powerful framework for topological control, pure reinforcement learning is not sufficient; rather, an effective and reliable system requires a 'minimalist' integration of domain-specific heuristics, binary rewards, and a restricted observation space of line loads.

Scientific simulations often produce scalar volumes faster than they can be stored, transferred, and loaded, while in situ reduction must use only a limited share of simulation resources. This work encodes scalar fields as anisotropic Gaussian primitives under a fixed budget. The complete primitive set is allocated analytically from local field structure, including position, orientation, and shape, then refined directly against the scalar field without densification, pruning, or count changes. The selected budget determines encoded storage before refinement and, together with the iteration schedule, provides a controllable refinement-time budget. In a controlled benchmark, truncation-aware field evaluation reduces encoding time by up to 51x; 1.4 million Gaussians encode a billion-voxel volume in at most four minutes on one desktop GPU, with reduced-iteration refinement completing in under one minute. Across five datasets spanning 2.1 million to 1.1 billion evaluated voxels, compression-useful configurations achieve 15.0-38.7 dB PSNR at compression ratios from 2.2x to over 40,000x. Pre-encoding structure statistics characterize fields for which one-shot allocation yields limited gains from additional capacity. Because primitives retain scalar attributes rather than baked appearance, a single compact model serves every subsequent visualization state - supporting post-hoc transfer-function, colormap, lighting, and viewpoint changes without re-encoding.

Autonomous LLM agents are increasingly deployed in complex real-world workflows, yet they remain vulnerable to runtime behavioral drift, a silent deviation from the original task that can lead to irreversible side effects on external systems. Existing approaches address drift at the prompt level but lack structured mechanisms for step-level detection, risk assessment, and recovery decision. Because the main task-executing agent is often a large and expensive model that cannot be re-trained on every deployment, this work targets a plug-and-play recovery module instead. It introduces a graph-based framework in which a single small language model is trained via reinforcement learning to specialize at each node of a recovery graph, external to the main agent. Each node has a precise role\,: drift classification, operation detection, risk evaluation, or final decision and the model learns to produce structured XML-formatted reasoning adapted to that role. Training combines rule-based structural rewards with an LLM-as-judge semantic-quality signal, so that the model is graded both on how it answers (schema and length) and on what it says. Experiments on the public AppWorld benchmark show that the method generally exploits information about the suspected drift onset to issue correct recovery decisions using a small language model. In addition, the trained small language model reliably respects the prescribed output schema and produces semantically appropriate content in each field according to its assigned node role.

When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation. We call this forecast collapse. Surprisingly, the phenomenon largely disappears when forecasting trading volume under the same setting. We investigate forecast collapse across time-series foundation models (TSFMs), twelve deep-learning forecasting models, and 97 public benchmark configurations, and find that it is closely tied to target predictability. We identify two distinct reasons behind it: low predictability limits the amplitude of calibrated point forecasts, while per-series objectives leave cross-series structure unidentified. These findings reveal a calibration-ranking tradeoff: optimizing squared error leads to flat predictions, whereas directly optimizing cross-sectional correlation improves ranking but can inflate forecast amplitude by more than an order of magnitude. To address this tradeoff, we introduce CalibRank, a simple objective that balances calibration and ranking. On Finance1K, CalibRank nearly triples cross-sectional correlation while keeping amplitude close to the target, and improves correlation on all tested models. Our results reveal a blind spot in conventional time-series evaluation: per-series metrics can hide failures in cross-series structure needed by downstream decisions.

We consider the problem of sequential prediction of an $m$-ary sequence, where at each epoch, (i) the environment selects an outcome from an $m$-ary alphabet, (ii) the learner selects a probability distribution over the same alphabet (unaware of the outcome generated by the environment), and finally, (iii) the learner incurs a cost that depends on the probability assigned to the outcome. The cost function we consider captures the complexity of predicting the outcome generated by the environment, in a scenario where the aforementioned prediction is performed via comparative queries to a lying oracle. We consider both stochastic and adversarial environments, propose algorithms for both settings, and establish logarithmic upper bounds on their regret.

The one-warehouse multi-store (OWMS) system is a fundamental inventory network in which a nonreplenishable warehouse allocates shared stock across multiple stores over time. Existing OWMS learning policies are built around a fixed target calibrated to the initial average resource rate, but such a fixed-target architecture cannot re-center after realized sales change the remaining resource available per future period. We develop Resource-Adaptive Primal-Dual Learning, a new learning framework that tracks the primal-dual resolving path with censored demand as the remaining-resource state evolves. In each period, the current resource rate indexes the target store allocations and dual variable, while censored sales provide gradient estimates for updating both. The analysis combines expected-sales geometry with a moving-target argument to yield logarithmic expected regret, improving on the state-of-the-art square-root-order guarantees of existing OWMS learning policies. The underlying design and analytical ideas may inform other online learning problems with depleting shared resources. Numerical experiments further demonstrate good finite-horizon performance of a practical variant across different horizon lengths and inventory regimes.

Safety classifiers deployed with large language models often fail for two reasons: their decisions reflect the policy learned during training rather than the deployer's desired policy, and their performance degrades as deployment traffic evolves. We present Regime-Conditional Verification (RCV), a lightweight wrapper that adapts an off-the-shelf safety classifier without retraining it. RCV estimates, from the classifier's internal representations, the probability that each prediction disagrees with the deployer's policy, and selectively corrects predictions likely to be wrong. The same correctness estimates also provide a label-free signal for detecting distribution shift, enabling a maintenance loop that updates the correctness estimation layer and resorts to classifier fine-tuning only when repair fails within a label budget. Across three off-the-shelf safety classifiers and two benchmark datasets, RCV improves adherence to the deployer's policy in every classifier-dataset combination, catching up to 0.81 of previously missed unsafe content without modifying the underlying classifier. In a deployment study with ten attack campaigns, each a harm category held out of RCV's training, RCV detects every campaign in a dedicated injection panel; in the maintenance census most drift episodes are repaired without updating the classifier, and the fine-tune is reserved for the residual episodes.

Diffusion models offer a natural way to model uncertainty in time series forecasting, yet their iterative sampling process is often treated as a uniformly beneficial refinement procedure. Our study challenges this view by examining how forecast quality evolves throughout reverse diffusion. We find that general temporal structure is often recovered at relatively high noise levels, whereas continued low-noise refinement can introduce statistical drift and degrade the final forecast. Our analysis further suggests that this behavior explains why prior methods often favor relatively narrow diffusion architecture and schedule design. Building on this observation, we propose a label-free global stopping criterion that detects the optimal termination point, eventually speeding up inference and improving predictive accuracy. Additionally, since early stopping terminates inference in high-noise regions, we propose a Bernoulli timestep sampler that concentrates training on this region while preserving coverage of the full diffusion process. Extensive experiments conducted across eight real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to existing approaches.

Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities. However, achieving optimal performance on time series with short or negligible historical data in domain-specific applications typically requires adaptation via either fine-tuning or RAG. While fine-tuning is effective, it incurs substantial computational costs. This work explores RAG within univariate time series (Retrieval Augmented Generation) as a more efficient alternative, in particular RAF (Retrieval Augmented Forecasting), and introduces RAEF (Retrieval-Augmented Extended Forecasting), a model-agnostic method built upon RAF. RAEF incorporates key refinements to the retrieval and aggregation mechanisms: (1) direct retrieval in input-space rather than embedding-space, reducing inference overhead, and (2) concatenation-based aggregation that preserves temporal structure instead of averaging. Empirical evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrates that RAEF outperforms RAF in both accuracy and inference overhead. Furthermore, comprehensive comparisons with zero-shot and fine-tuned foundation models show that RAEF achieves competitive or superior performance to fine-tuning while avoiding its computational burden, establishing it as a practical and scalable approach for domain adaptation in time series forecasting.

Modern text-to-image diffusion models rely on classifier-free guidance (CFG) to achieve high image fidelity and text alignment. However, CFG typically applies a static, global scale across all timesteps, samples, and conditions – a choice that is generally suboptimal and can introduce artifacts, as different states may benefit from different levels of guidance. While time-varying schedules are known to improve quality, designing them by hand is non-trivial and application-dependent. In this paper, we learn the guidance schedule as a function of diffusion time, conditioning and the current noisy sample, in order to better align sampled images with the text prompt. We frame this as a density ratio estimation problem: a discriminator is trained to estimate the time-dependent log-density ratio between the true and guided marginal distributions, while a lightweight generator network predicts the optimal, state-dependent guidance scale. Empirically, our approach outperforms both heuristic CFG schedules and prior methods for learning dynamic guidance on text-to-image generation benchmarks.

Adding data known to be correct ought to be safe. Not always. Larsen, Pabbaraju and Shetty model the failure with a monotone adversary, which reads an i.i.d. training sample and may append as many further examples as it likes, provided the target hypothesis labels them all. Mehrotra has since settled the cost, showing that for classes of VC dimension d >= 2 no learner can guarantee expected error better than Theta((d/n)log(en/d)), a logarithmic factor above the clean PAC rate. Because that rate is a worst case over all classes, it says nothing about which classes actually suffer the penalty, and the answer turns on the learner. We call a learner insertion-stable if feeding it more correctly labeled examples can only shrink the region where it errs. Such learners are immune to the adversary, since on any given sample the risk after insertions never exceeds the risk on the clean part alone, however much is added and however cleverly it is chosen. High- probability guarantees carry over unchanged, and because Closure is insertion-stable every intersection-closed class keeps its clean rate of E[Err] <= (21d+34)/n. Immunity is not something the classical dimensions can predict. Two classes can agree on VCdim = Ldim = 2 and still split, one at Theta(1/n) and the other at Theta(log(en)/n), while intervals have unbounded Littlestone dimension and are immune anyway. On Mehrotra's hard class we prove more than the failure of a single algorithm, showing that no monotone permutation-invariant compression scheme of any finite size attains the clean rate. The question is therefore not whether a class is hard, nor whether a learner is good, but whether the two suit each other. Given an insertion-stable learner that is optimal on clean data, correct additions are free, and without one the cost belongs to the class, so changing the learner will not avoid it.

Emergent Models (EMs) are a machine learning paradigm based on simple yet open-ended substrates, such as cellular automata, in which modeling is treated not as the learning of a closed-form input-output map but as the emergence, within simple dynamical systems, of computational behaviors that solve external tasks. Such substrates typically iterate a fixed local rule over a latent space for an adaptive number of steps, with an interface linking the latent state to external input/output signals. Training proceeds by evolutionary search. We hypothesize that some instances of this framework are biased toward global generalization: capturing the rule generating the data over its full domain, and therefore extrapolating beyond the training range. Theoretically, we prove that some EMs are latent-universal: with the update rule and interface held fixed, they can realize any partial computable function by varying only the initial condition of the latent state. Empirically, we study a zoo of minimal EM instantiations across discrete and continuous substrates, showing that local-recursive computation at a tiny scale (tens to hundreds of parameters) can extrapolate exactly on simple arithmetic functions, can support control behaviour and online adaptation, while still exposing several limitations. This work is foundational: it does not propose a competitive architecture, but a framework meant to widen the design space of machine learning beyond differentiable feed-forward maps.

Two old market sayings hold that news is already priced in by the time it is published, and that the rumor is bought while the news is sold. Both are empirical claims about event time: they place the price move associated with a piece of news before and at publication rather than after it. Whether the claims hold, for which kinds of news, and by how much are basic questions about how fast markets absorb public information. We test them on 4.57 million financial news articles covering roughly 3,000 US stocks (2023-2026). A large language model teacher, distilled into a compact classifier through active learning, assigns each article one of 17 event tags and five attributes; articles are clustered into stories to separate first reports from follow-up coverage; and beta-adjusted abnormal returns are measured around the resulting 1.68 million stock-day events, with 364{,}405 neutral-sentiment events as a placebo group. Three results follow. First, the price move associated with news concentrates before and at publication: pooled across all signed events, the cumulative move in the news direction by the close of publication day is 2.8 times its value twenty days later, and for rumor-flagged events the directional return is concentrated around the rumor event, with little incremental return at the subsequent linked non-rumor event. Second, measured against the placebo of comparable stocks, markets underreact to numbers and overreact to stories: quantified fundamental news (earnings, dividends, guidance, analyst actions) keeps drifting in the direction of the news for weeks, while soft story-driven news (launches, macro commentary, leadership) gives back its move. Third, news carries width as well as direction: neutral news raises publication-day volatility. The study also produces a table of measured drift for each event tag, usable as a prior in news-conditioned forecasting models.

In-context learning is commonly formalized as inference from examples of a function. Partial orders instead combine transitivity, antisymmetry, and incomparability, so a finite prompt may not determine a queried comparison. We develop a theory of in-context learning on partial orders that separates logical identifiability, prompt teaching cost, structural complexity, and the exact capacity of a formal coordinate-decoder class. A version-space semantics makes background knowledge and open- versus closed-world assumptions explicit. For finite open-world prompts with positive and negative comparisons, we prove an exact completion trichotomy: after taking the reflexive transitive closure of the positive demonstrations, a query is forced true, forced false because every true completion creates a cycle or violates a negative demonstration, or remains genuinely ambiguous. For a known $n$-element universe, we characterize the open-world teaching number as the number of covers plus a blocker-set hitting number, prove that its maximum over all $n$-element posets is $n(n-1)$ and is uniquely attained by the antichain, and identify the blocker term as the exact cost of open-world rather than complete-Hasse semantics. We formalize prompt-dependent $s$-coordinate decoders and use the classical coordinate-order equivalence to obtain an exact representation boundary: dimension at most $s$ is necessary and sufficient, while width at most $s$ is a convenient sufficient condition.