Papers

When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time? This problem is of interest for AI safety, where safety is derived from honesty about probabilistic predictions of unwanted outcomes potentially caused by an AI action. We construct an interactive PCP as follows. Let a predictive model be specified by a probability circuit P and a circuit Q which outputs confidence in predictions. Together, P and Q implicitly specify exponentially many probabilistic claims. We show a protocol in which a polynomial-time verifier can verify the approximate consistency of (P,Q). The verifier is given the pair of circuits (P,Q), which it evaluates at only a few points; alongside them it is given a proof oracle, an encoding of a witnessing probability distribution allegedly consistent with the predictions of (P,Q), which it reads at a few locations while interacting with a single untrusted prover. En route, we must ensure the existence of a sparse witnessing distribution consistent with the model's predictions. To do so, we first consider witness distributions for the consistency of explicit probabilistic claims, rather than claims specified by a predictor: say m claims, each of the form Pr[Y = 1 | X = x] = p, over n Boolean variables. Building on work initiated by Nilsson (Artif. Intell., 1986), we place l_2-approximate probabilistic consistency of explicit claims in NP, with certificates of length O(mn + log B) in the input bit-precision B; we further show how a small additive completeness-soundness gap removes the dependence on B. Together these results provide a complexity-theoretic foundation for certifying the self-consistency of probabilistic predictors. We view our interactive PCP as a first step toward training predictive models to prove their own consistency.

The attention mechanism forms the foundation of many modern AI models such as the Transformer. In one subclass of problems where attention is used, inputs and outputs are bound to the probability simplex so that all outputs sum to one. In this setting, softmax attention admits an exact, component-by-component quantum realization. Attention scores are Hadamard-test statistics on block-encoded projections of amplitude-encoded inputs. The exponential softmax is the interior of a cosine-squared family generated by Born-rule measurement under an exact bijection, whose boundary expresses sparse attention with exact zeros at finite parameter values. The softmax temperature is a repetition count where post-selected measurement rounds realize discretized inverse temperature exactly. Value aggregation is a deterministic column-loading channel that dilates the column-stochastic value matrix. The gated residual is the preparation angle of a single ancilla, with the additive identity at a mixing angle of $\pi$/2. Every learnable parameter is a rotation-gate angle. The composed layer is exact in the infinite-shot limit with one measure-and-reload step per attention score; a fully-coherent variant is $\epsilon$-approximate via quantum singular value transformation in the infinite depth limit. The algebraic core is machine-checked in Lean 4.

Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) predominantly rely on image-text pairs for modality alignment pretraining, mapping global image representations to long textual descriptions. However, this image-level alignment suffers from referential ambiguity: models struggle to infer the correspondences between multiple visual objects and textual entities from the global representation, leading to data inefficiency and suboptimal semantic grounding. To address this, we propose MultiModal Code-Switching (MMCS), a novel pretraining paradigm that provides explicit object-level supervision. Inspired by the linguistic phenomenon of code-switching, MMCS interleaves vision and language by replacing textual entities with their corresponding visual objects, enforcing local vision-language grounding. We further develop a scalable data synthesis pipeline to generate a pretraining dataset of 773K samples with accurate object-entity correspondences. Experiments show that MMCS is highly data-efficient: with only 50K samples, it matches or surpasses models trained on 600K image-text pairs. Furthermore, MMCS consistently improves visual grounding and perception capabilities across varying model scales.

The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data. We propose hierarchical empirical-Bayes Naive Bayes (HEB-NB), in which each class-feature conditional probability is smoothed by a Dirichlet prior whose concentration is learned data-adaptively via Type-II maximum likelihood, enabling principled information sharing across classes while retaining closed-form inference. We further introduce HEB average one-dependence estimators (HEB-AODE), showing that the adaptive smoothing transfers cleanly to structural relaxations of NB. Theoretically, we establish a non-asymptotic $\ell_1$ error bound for HEB-NB matching the empirical-distribution minimax rate plus a vanishing data-adaptive bias, together with a matching Laplace-tight lower bound that yields a finite-sample, risk-level strict separation from Laplace. We further derive a plug-in excess Bayes-risk bound via total-variation tensorization and a population top-1 expected calibration error (ECE) corollary. Empirically, across 31 UCI and OpenML benchmarks, HEB-NB attains the best average Friedman rank on probabilistic metrics, with up to 22.1% log-loss reductions on high-cardinality datasets and consistent improvements of HEB-AODE over vanilla AODE. Combining HEB-NB with mutual-information weighting reduces top-1 ECE by 41%-70%, demonstrating substantial gains in probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

Conditional Independence (CI) tests are the statistical engine of constraint-based causal discovery: in algorithms such as PC (Peter-Clark) and FCI (Fast Causal Inference), skeleton pruning and key orientations follow directly from CI decisions. This survey reviews CI testing with emphasis on assumptions, robustness, and scalability in high-dimensional and mixed-type settings common in biomedical domains. The survey organizes widely used CI methods into six families: partial-correlation, contingency-table, regression, nearest-neighbor, kernel, and machine-learning-based. Special emphasis is provided on the robustness layers that address the limitations of these families. For each family, the survey examines when CI decisions reflect the data-generating distribution and when they fail. By this, we link test-level properties, including power decay with conditioning set size and asymmetric type I/II error consequences, to graph-level errors in skeleton recovery and v-structure orientation. The survey also compares adoption across major R and Python libraries and summarizes open challenges, including mixed-type CI testing without discretization, small-sample error control, and strategies for improving scalability of CI-testing.

Detecting or attributing a supply-chain disruption is not the same as selecting the intervention that maximizes recoverable net value. We present CriticalSCM-Bench v1, a controlled synthetic benchmark with causal ground truth, paired factual/counterfactual rollouts, and an explicit net-value objective. Relative to a full-information train-selected static benchmark, LambdaMART improves median normalized net value by 5.7–16.2%, with paired statistical support on the semiconductor and critical-material archetypes but not on digital infrastructure. On digital infrastructure, a domain-informed constant-buffer policy remains stronger, showing that greater model complexity is not uniformly justified. Across partial and delayed settings, LambdaMART retains 33–75% of full-clamp value. Stress tests further show that intervention fidelity, timing, cost, and held-out disruptions can alter policy ordering. Critical materials show the weakest out-of-distribution retention. Separately, a guarded explanation study over 540 generations preserves every fixed intervention decision after deterministic validation and template fallback, although exact wording remains unstable. Within this controlled setting, the results identify regimes in which adaptive ranking adds value and those in which simpler structural policies remain preferable.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) post-training pipelines for large language models (LLMs) increasingly combine rollout workloads across multiple domains and feedback paradigms. Prefix-aware routing improves inference efficiency through cache reuse and load balancing, but it does not control how heterogeneous rollout sessions compete for KV-cache capacity. When reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), and agentic rollouts share an asynchronous inference service, their distinct sequence structures, interaction patterns, and KV-residency times create substantially different serving demands. Rollout scheduling must account for this heterogeneity without distorting the workload mixture specified by the trainer. We present MISA-T, a routing-layer admission policy for mixed rollout serving. MISA-T combines adaptive session admission, workload-aware KV-capacity allocation, and residency-time-aware KV accounting. In rollout-only ablations on Step3.7 and Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, MISA-T improves rollout throughput over a sweep-tuned cache-aware vLLM Router by 53.3% and 43.6%, respectively, while maintaining high prefix-cache hit rates. In a matched 50-iteration Step3.7 experiment, it increases rollout throughput by 35.6% and reduces mean iteration time by 22.8%, while keeping the consumed workload mixture close to the trainer target and achieving comparable task scores.

This paper develops a method for sensor-subset selection for tracking. Prior work showed that low-cost acoustic Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) measurements can be used to recommend subsets of sensor nodes whose expensive sensing modalities, such as cameras, can achieve high tracking accuracy. While efficient, RSSI-based approaches are challenged by acoustic interference. We propose a recommendation-system-inspired framework that instead leverages frequency-band acoustic features and a Two-Tower Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) architecture to efficiently score candidate sensor subsets. Experimental results on outdoor vehicle-tracking deployments show that the proposed method can improve accuracy by around 20% over the RSSI baseline while maintaining the low computational overhead required for real-time selective sensing.

Augmentation can corrupt a training example when an image and its annotations receive different random changes. A crop must use the same coordinates for the image, mask, boxes, keypoints, stereo views, video frames, or volume. Code paths that choose these values separately can silently misalign the data. AlbumentationsX keeps the transform list, probabilities, annotation settings, and random seed in one Compose object. Each call chooses random values once and applies them to every supported part of the training example. The library keeps each object's mask, box, and label together and lets projects add their own transforms. It can also save the pipeline definition, show what happened in one call, and run that call again. The examples place Compose after files have been decoded into arrays and before PyTorch groups examples into a batch. AlbumentationsX executes the declared transforms. Practitioners still decide whether a flip, crop, color change, or other operation preserves the correct label for their task.

Probabilistic forecasting plays an essential role in risk-sensitive decision-making, particularly in long-horizon settings. However, existing approaches often face a fundamental trade-off between distributional flexibility and accurate mean prediction. Traditional parametric methods, such as Mean Variance Estimation (MVE), can suffer from degraded point accuracy when trained under joint Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) objectives, while modern-flexible generative models, including Normalizing Flows and Diffusion Models, typically rely on costly Monte Carlo sampling and may yield suboptimal mean estimates. To address this limitation, we propose Two-stage Odd Residual Flows (TORF), a framework that decouples mean forecasting from uncertainty estimation. In the first stage, a pre-trained deterministic model is used to produce an accurate mean prediction. In the second stage, a Restricted Normalizing Flow, with strictly odd functions learns flexible residual distributions around the point forecast, guaranteeing mean preservation from the first stage without sampling. Experiments show that TORF achieves state-of-the-art deterministic accuracy (NMAE) while providing strong density estimation performance (CRPS) on short and long-horizon forecasting.

Agentic coding READMEs like CLAUDE.md grow without bound in real repositories, stopping only when the repository retires or someone rewrites the file wholesale. We trace this to imperfect recall: appending an instruction is always cheap, but once an instruction's rationale is gone, deleting it without risking a correctness regression costs O(2^|D|) in a prompt of |D| instructions. We name the resulting divergence catastrophic remembering, the inverse of catastrophic forgetting around which continual learning is organized. First, we characterize this phenomenon across 247,694 instruction lifetimes in 1,867 repositories: agentic prompts grow without bound, more than tripling over their lifetime (+226%), gaining +4.9 net instructions every commit; further, the older an instruction gets, the less likely it is to be deleted (log-hazard -0.032/commit). Then, we show that prompt comments can halt the growth: inverting IFEval yields verifiable worlds whose optimal prompts are known, and there comments encoding latent reasoning remove 99.3% of excess instructions (+211.3% to +1.4%). Finally, applying the same inversion to WildIFEval, we show that prompt comments can improve real-world agentic instruction-following by up to 23.1%. If English is the new code, why don't we have comments yet?

Cross-view feature matching aims to establish reliable correspondences across images with large viewpoint variations. Over the past decade, the field has evolved from task-specific models toward increasingly unified and generalizable correspondence models, with recent progress further driven by the emergence of vision foundation models (VFMs). Despite these advances, existing studies remain highly diverse in their problem formulations, model architectures, training paradigms, and evaluation protocols, making it difficult to obtain a unified understanding of the field. In this survey, we present a unified review of cross-view feature matching. We first introduce a structured taxonomy covering feature extraction, single-type feature matcher, multi-type feature matcher, VFMs based methods, training strategy and robust estimation, providing a coherent framework for analysis and comparison. We further examine recent advances, distilling key design principles and highlighting the shift toward unified and generalizable correspondence models. We also provide a unified experimental benchmarking of representative state-of-the-art methods under consistent protocols, enabling fair and comprehensive performance comparisons. In addition, we discuss open challenges and future directions, including efficiency, robustness under extreme conditions, and cross-domain generalization. This survey aims to provide a comprehensive and structured reference for understanding the evolution, current landscape, and future development of cross-view feature matching in the era of vision foundation models.

Low Power Wide Area Networks like LoRa are increasingly deployed for smart city applications, requiring accurate path loss prediction for effective network planning. Traditional (empirical) propagation models often exhibit limited accuracy in these scenarios. We investigate machine learning models for LoRa path loss prediction, systematically analyzing how prediction accuracy scales with training set size using real-world measurements from an urban deployment. Our approach employs a Random Forest with LiDAR-derived terrain features and k-Nearest Neighbors with coordinate data, comparing their performance against established empirical models and specialized LPWAN models. Under random pooled splits, both ML models consistently outperform the considered baseline models across the evaluated training-set sizes. At maximum training size, they achieve RMSE values below 6.5 dB compared to 9.7 dB for the best baseline, indicating accurate within-deployment interpolation. A leave-one-gateway-out check qualifies this result: RF shows placement-dependent transfer to held-out gateways, with moderate degradation for several gateways but larger errors for others, whereas coordinate-only k-NN degrades substantially when the gateway location is unseen

Large-scale neural recommender systems are typically trained with a softmax cross-entropy objective over the full item vocabulary. For a typical large number of possible items $K$, the final classification layer dominates memory, requiring $O(nK)$ logits and gradients to materialize for a batch of $n$ examples. Sampled softmax reduces this cost by restricting the objective to only $k \ll K$ candidate negative items, resulting in an $O(nk)$ memory. However, for a fixed budget $B = n k$, it remains unclear whether one should prioritize larger batches or the inclusion of more negative items. We address this question by analyzing sampled-softmax training under a fixed memory constraint. Under standard smoothness and variance assumptions, our theoretical evidence suggests that the fastest convergence arises from an $ n \sim B, k \sim 1$ allocation. So, an actionable rule is to include as many objects as possible given computational constraints. Our theory is supported by controlled synthetic and synthetic and four real sequential recommendation benchmarks, including MovieLens-20M. The suggested configuration achieve faster convergence and better final recommendation quality than imbalanced alternatives within the same memory constraint. These findings provide a theoretical and empirical foundation for configuring memory during the training of recommender systems. Code, reproducibility materials, and all scripts for generating figures are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LimitedMemoryRule-BBFB

Deep learning models have emerged as the standard computational tool for a wide range of applications in genomics. Yet, uncertainty quantification (UQ) – and more specifically, the reliability of different uncertainty estimates in this domain – has received little systematic attention. This work presents an empirical analysis of UQ in deep learning models, focusing on genomics applications. In a series of experiments, we contrast Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Neural Networks, and Monte Carlo-dropout methods. We assess their ability to quantify uncertainty in different scenarios, accounting for common dataset characteristics in two genomic application areas and modalities: sequence-to-activity models, and single-cell expression analysis. Our systematic comparison framework provides guidelines for the applicability and reliability of UQ methods in genomics, highlighting their strengths and limitations in different scenarios. We show that Bayesian Neural Networks are better at capturing uncertainty caused by strong class imbalance and out-of-distribution data in genomics, despite their computational disadvantages. Moreover, we show how uncertainty scores can be used to select high-quality predictions in protein-RNA interactions.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to recover a reward function under which the resulting policy reproduces the behavior observed in expert demonstrations. A natural approach is to formulate IRL as a bilevel optimization problem, in which the inner level corresponds to policy optimization under the learned reward and the outer level measures the discrepancy between the induced policy and expert data. However, this formulation is computationally challenging in practice because the outer update requires a hypergradient involving an inverse-Hessian-vector product for the inner objective. We address this challenge by showing that, at the inner optimum, the Hessian of the inner objective is proportional to the Fisher information matrix of the policy, yielding a structured Fisher-based hypergradient closely related to Natural Hypergradient Descent. To address the resulting scalability bottleneck associated with large Fisher matrices, we approximate the required inverse-Fisher-vector product using a streaming spectral sketch, avoiding explicit construction of the Fisher matrix. We evaluate our approach against a first-order stochastic bilevel baseline across discrete- and continuous-control environments. The results demonstrate competitive policy performance and strong reward-ranking quality, while Fisher sketching reduces curvature-storage complexity and can improve computational efficiency relative to an explicit Fisher solver.

While existing benchmarks have made substantial progress in evaluating LLMs across STEM domains, financial reasoning over structured data remains comparatively less explored. We introduce V-FiLLM, a framework that generates financial reasoning benchmarks from executable computation trees grounded in real tables, yielding items whose answers are correct by construction. Trees are evaluated symbolically to obtain ground truth and rendered into natural-language questions, removing any model from the labeling loop, so items can be generated at arbitrary scale without annotation cost and without inheriting a generator's error rate. V-FiLLM exposes four independently controllable axes of difficulty including computation depth, expression breadth, financial concept complexity, and context size. By evaluating on open-source models, we find that accuracy falls up to 51% as reasoning depth increases, and up to 47% points under adversarial numerical perturbations, highlighting remaining challenges in robust financial reasoning over tables. We further show that lightweight LoRA fine-tuning on verified chain-of-thought traces improves accuracy from 81.1% to 85.6% on held-out problems and outperforms the base model by 5% points on FinQA (Chen et al., 2022a), s), suggesting that targeted, low-cost adaptation is a promising direction for compositional reasoning in financial QA.

ReRound (Reconstructive Rounding) is a post-training quantization method that addresses the midpoint ambiguity inherent in standard round-to-nearest (RTN) schemes when quantizing weights near the centers of quantization intervals. Starting from a pretrained LLM, ReRound trains a conditional diffusion model to produce continuous reconstructions of low-bit weights for the LLM. These reconstructed weights act as a guidance signal to disambiguate the rounding direction of weights located close to interval midpoints. To integrate this reconstruction-guided rounding with conventional RTN, ReRound introduces a tolerance metric measuring how far the quantized weight (not the final quantized integer) is away from the midpoint: quantized weights within a tolerance region around midpoints are quantized using diffusion-based reconstructions, whereas weights closer to quantization boundaries are quantized with RTN. By sweeping the tolerance parameter, ReRound generates multiple candidate quantized integer weight matrices and selects the de-quantized weight matrix candidate whose leading singular values most closely match those of the original full-precision weights. This selected candidate determines the tolerance parameter ReRound uses. ReRound is particularly effective for smaller LLMs. Across a range of such models, it consistently outperforms standard RTN for 3-bit and 4-bit weight quantization. ReRound achieves superior accuracy compared to an extensive set of calibration-free methods, remains competitive with calibration-dependent approaches, and operates entirely offline, introducing no additional overhead during low-bit inference. The ReRound strategy represents a new approach for low-bit quantization. The method applies to AI models beyond LLMs. This paper focuses on its applications to small LLMs.

In LLM pre-training, synchronization propagates rank-local stalls, slowdowns, and numerical errors into job-wide symptoms, obscuring their origin. Existing diagnosis often relies on in-process monitors that cannot report after the trainer blocks or terminates, or on post-mortem logs that preserve only synchronized symptoms; offline health tests lose the workload and operating conditions that triggered the failure. We present SCOUT, a unified runtime failure-localization framework built on one design principle: identify outliers through strict-majority consensus among equivalent replicas. SCOUT aligns replica progress, timing, and numerical evidence, then uses its Consensus Collective Communication (C3) abstraction to identify ranks whose compact signatures disagree with their peers. An out-of-band CPU observer remains responsive when training hangs, whereas in-situ replay exercises recurring stragglers and silent data corruption (SDC) beside the live job with its model state, kernels, allocations, communication path, and thermal and memory pressure present. Collective fingerprints expose rank-local protocol divergence. Clean replay coverage certifies checkpoint numerical integrity, preventing recovery from selecting state corrupted by SDC. SCOUT integrates with PyTorch, TorchTitan, Megatron-Core, and DeepSpeed without training-loop or framework-source modifications. SCOUT is open source at https://github.com/LMResiliency/lm-resiliency.

Benchmark leaderboards summarize how well a language model performs, but not how its behavior relates to that of other models or changes across generations. We characterize the output behavior of 32 models from six families using their responses to a shared bank of 10{,}000 prompts. After embedding each response, we construct three complementary sentence-level dissimilarities: an aligned mean per-prompt distance, which is a pseudometric on observed model responses; a PCA-compressed summary of prompt-wise disagreement; and an alignment-free Gromov–Wasserstein discrepancy between models' internal response geometries. We use these constructions to study static organization and temporal change on a release-date axis through behavioral maps, family-wise drift, hierarchical clustering, cross-family convergence, and response-cloud dispersion. Across the three constructions, model families form coherent clusters, with gpt-2 as a global outlier; cross-family distances decrease over time; and several recent reasoning-oriented models have comparatively compact response clouds. A token-level cross-check based on per-prompt Maximum Mean Discrepancy closely agrees with the sentence-level mean distance (Spearman $\rho=0.98$) and recovers the same qualitative findings. We organize these comparisons through a measure-theoretic lens making their alignment and invariance assumptions explicit. We also establish an architecture-agnostic sufficient condition linking behavioral similarity to inference-prompt coverage, small excess population log-loss, and similar effective target distributions—a possible training-side account rather than an empirical explanation of the observed trends. Our pipeline is label-free, and re-encoding every response with three further encoders—down to one $73\times$ smaller—preserves the rank geometry, the outliers, and the sign of the time trend.

We systematically investigate finite-difference (FD) derivative computation in Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) as an alternative to automatic differentiation (AD). On three benchmark PDEs we show that, with a properly calibrated step size, FD matches AD in accuracy on every problem while running faster across the full tested batch-size range and using substantially less GPU memory, and that a stochastic variant we propose outperforms AD on a stationary problem. We further show that for neural architectures with inter-sample dependencies (e.g. BatchNorm, self-attention) the standard PyTorch autograd idiom is silently incorrect; the correct per-sample alternative is computationally infeasible at PINN-relevant batch sizes, while FD provides a forward-only approximation that is empirically an order of magnitude closer to the true per-sample derivative.

Modeling spatiotemporal dynamical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) poses two major challenges: it either requires expensive physics-based simulators that entail iterative numerical solving at high computational cost, or it depends on abundant training data, yet purely data-driven models often generalize poorly to downstream dynamic operating conditions. We propose DEFT, a frequency-domain data sampling method that identifies the dominant Fourier modes of a physical system and systematically varies the corresponding amplitudes and phases to generate physically consistent training data via the inverse discrete Fourier transform. In addition, we derive a generalization bound of this method. We note that it also provides a theoretically principled criterion for selecting $K$. We evaluate the proposed method through three sets of experiments, each targeting a distinct aspect of its utility. First, we validate the framework on canonical PDEs solving demonstrating that it outperforms traditional methods when the system is dominated by a few prominent frequency components. Second, we employ DEFT as a data-value filter on the diffusion–sorption and Burgers equations of PDEBench, showing that it reduces data requirements by $40\%$ while sacrificing less than $2\%$ in predictive accuracy. Third, to evaluate DEFT for more challenging and practically relevant problems, we validate it in the battery degradation PDE system, achieving consistently high predictive accuracy across various test datasets with $R^2$ values exceeding $0.99$. Moreover, the learned frequency-domain features transfer to other battery chemistries with only $20\%$ of the fine-tuning data. These results demonstrate that DEFT is an effective data-sampling method for efficient operator learning.

Clustering is a fundamental class of data analysis techniques with the most important representatives being centroid-based methods like $k$-means. Such methods are strongly connected to quantization problems, which aim to approximate general probability measures with discrete ones. For example, $k$-means corresponds to quantization with respect to the Wasserstein distance. While Wasserstein quantization clusters points within a fixed space, this paper studies Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) quantization, which additionally aims at clustering the ambient geometry of the space. We show existence of solutions to the GW quantization problem and give a characterization that justifies an analogue to the $k$-means algorithm (Lloyd's algorithm) to approximate them numerically. We further calculate the quantization rate for usual Euclidean geometries that are used in the GW context, and relate it to standard Wasserstein quantization rates. Finally, numerical experiments show that GW quantization opens up many modeling possibilities beyond normal clustering methods (e.g., for geodesic distances of 3D shapes or structured pruning of neural networks) and that the introduced algorithm leads to useful numerical solutions with approximation quality often in line with theoretically optimal rates.

In this work, we study the information bottleneck under perfect privacy, with particular emphasis on the active-rate regime, where the representation-rate constraint is binding and directly limits the achievable utility. The goal is to construct a representation that preserves utility-relevant information while remaining statistically independent of a sensitive variable. This exact independence requirement introduces an additional constraint beyond the classical rate-relevance tradeoff and must be explicitly incorporated into the optimization. To this end, we develop an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM)-based method tailored to the resulting problem structure. Under suitable regularity conditions, we establish global convergence of the generated sequence, characterize its convergence rate through the Kurdyka-Lojasiewicz exponent, and extend the analysis to inexact block updates.

A growing class of methods probes a language model by feeding it its own output: self-consistency, iterated refinement, agentic loops. We ask what such a probe measures, in a construction chosen to make the question sharp: a ring of token cells resampled in place by the model's own windowed conditional p_r(x_i | x_{i+-r}). The substrate is Glauber dynamics on token sequences and is not new; what we change is the coupling. Advancing two rings that differ in one token under common random numbers makes undamaged copies diverge by exactly zero, so damage spreading becomes measurable where a maximal coupling gives mixing times instead. The answer is that it measures two different things at once, in readings that look alike. Some quantities are fixed by the construction: the damage light cone is kinematic, and the radius scaling of the token-space Lyapunov exponent lambda_ca(r) is model-invariant across 19 models and two scale ladders spanning 70x. Others genuinely track the model: lambda_ca crosses zero at a reproducible point in training, and the attractor share ranks models consistently however the lattice is built. Left undistinguished, the first kind is readily mistaken for the second – we did so ourselves for four months, and report a phase transition we measured to three decimal places that belongs to the probe rather than to any language model. We give the test that separates them: hold the construction fixed and vary the model, or hold the model fixed and vary the construction, and see which readings move. We validate the instrument by reproduction first, recovering a Domany-Kinzel damage field bit-exactly against an independent prediction, and we report the estimator failures that this discipline caught – four retracted verdicts, each on a quantity that looked like a measurement. The methodology ships as a package.

Healthcare data, such as Intensive Care Unit (ICU) records, comprise heterogeneous multivariate time series sampled at irregular intervals with pervasive missingness. However, clinical applications demand predictive models that are both accurate and interpretable. We present our Graph Attention-based Relational Learning for Intensive Care (GARLIC) model, a novel neural network architecture that imputes missing data through a learnable exponential-decay encoder, captures inter-sensor dependencies via time-lagged summary graphs, and fuses global patterns with cross-dimensional sequential attention. All attention weights and graph edges are learned end-to-end to serve as built-in observation-, signal-, and edge-level explanations. To reconcile auxiliary reconstruction and primary classification objectives, we developed an alternating decoupled optimization scheme that stabilizes training. On three ICU benchmarks (PhysioNet 2012 & 2019, MIMIC-III), GARLIC sets the new state of the art in outcome prediction, significantly improving AUROC and AUPRC over best-performing baselines at comparable computational cost. Ablation studies confirm the contribution of each module, and feature-removal trials validate the fidelity of importance attribution through a monotonic performance drop (full > top 50% > random 50% > bottom 50%). Real-time case studies demonstrate actionable risk warnings with transparent explanations, marking a significant advance toward accurate, explainable deep learning for irregularly sampled ICU time series data. Moreover, we demonstrated \proposed{}'s superiority in data imputation and classification on various time-series datasets beyond the ICU domain, showing its generalizability and applicability to broader tasks.

Industrial time-series signals, such as turbine temperature and rotational speed in aero-engines, are essential for monitoring the health and operational status of complex dynamical systems. However, collecting such data is often limited by harsh environments (e.g., high temperature and high pressure) and the high cost of experimental testing. To address this challenge, we introduce PhysDGM, a stepwise physics-embedded diffusion generative model for synthesizing time-series data that are consistent with the underlying physical laws of dynamical systems. PhysDGM embeds physical laws directly into each reverse diffusion step of the generative process, ensuring trajectory-level physical consistency, rather than enforcing constraints only at the final output. A large-scale AI-synthetic dataset (4.4 million samples, 20x scale-up) constructed by PhysDGM demonstrates strong fidelity across 34 datasets spanning turbofan engines, aero-engines, batteries, and chemical processes. After incorporating the synthetic data, the downstream task performance substantially surpassed that using real data alone by 48% for remaining useful life prediction, 15% for health indicator estimation, 22% for state-of-health assessment, and 20% for fault diagnosis. Moreover, it requires 10-20x less training data than existing approaches, substantially reducing the high cost of data collection in dynamical systems. We further demonstrate PhysDGM's potential in identifying early-stage faults in aero-engines by incorporating AI-synthesized data. In summary, PhysDGM provides a solid foundation for generating physically consistent industrial time-series, paving the way for expanding physics-guided AI into diverse data-scarce environments, including both industrial machinery and complex chemical reaction dynamics.

We study a Restart POMDP (Partially Observable Markov Decision Process) on a general Borel state space, where the controller either lets the hidden state evolve unobserved or restarts the system and observes the new state. Exploiting a sufficient-statistic representation consisting of the last observed state and the elapsed time since restart, we reduce the problem to a fully observed MDP. Under a natural one-step cost deterioration condition, we prove that optimal policies have a threshold structure in the elapsed time for both the discounted and total undiscounted cost criteria. When the state space is partially ordered and the kernel is stochastically monotone, we further show that the optimal threshold is nonincreasing in the state. For the average cost criterion, under additional assumptions of geometric ergodicity and domination of the transient gain, we establish analogous threshold results via the vanishing discount approach, after showing the uniform boundedness of the optimal thresholds and relative value functions.

On-policy distillation (OPD) applies token-level teacher supervision to student-generated trajectories, but this supervision is not always reliable. Existing methods use local confidence or teacher-student agreement to weight, filter, or truncate the sampled trajectory. These signals do not directly determine whether the teacher can continue a student prefix to a correct answer, and trajectory-level interventions can conflate one rollout's unreliability with low expected training value of its prompt. We define prompt-level teacher continuation reliability $R$ as the teacher's probability of reaching a correct answer from a student prefix, averaged over prefixes and trajectories induced by the current student. Oracle experiments show that high-$R$ prompts yield larger OPD gains and that descending-$R$ training outperforms random and ascending orders on a fixed prompt pool. Because estimating $R$ requires many teacher continuations, we use the maximum ROUGE-5 F1 between one independent student rollout and verifier-correct same-prompt teacher trajectories. Across ten equal-frequency bins of this actual score, mean $R$ rises monotonically, showing that the proxy separates coarse reliability levels. ReOrder-OPD sorts prompts by the proxy, then draws independent on-policy training trajectories for vanilla OPD. It improves every matched aggregate comparison across Qwen3 and Gemma4 mathematics settings and Qwen3 code settings. Gains in all six FiRe-OPD and ExOPD settings show that prompt ordering complements within-trajectory supervision.

Reliable clinical deployment of machine learning requires models that know when they are likely to fail, particularly for subgroups underrepresented in training data. A common case is pediatric care, where models trained on adult cohorts can silently under-perform on children with no indication that something has gone wrong. As retraining with labeled pediatric data is often infeasible, detecting such failures at inference time is a critical clinical need. Building on the VIDS (Variational Inference under Distribution Shifts) framework, we introduce VIDS-Seg, which applies amortized variational inference over a lightweight prediction head to make this adaptive, OOD-aware prior tractable for dense image segmentation. We evaluate VIDS-Seg on left ventricular segmentation in echocardiography, a setting where pediatric anatomy differs systematically from the adult population most segmentation models are trained on, training on an adult cohort (EchoNet-Dynamic) and evaluating zero-shot on a pediatric cohort (EchoNet-Pediatric). Across all age strata, VIDS-Seg matches competitive baselines in segmentation accuracy while producing substantially higher spatial correspondence between predicted uncertainty and segmentation error, an advantage that persists even after applying temperature scaling to all baselines. Downstream, it yields more accurate and stable ejection fraction estimates and more reliable detection of cardiac malfunction in the infant subgroup. Our results indicate that OOD-aware uncertainty quantification can serve as a practical safety layer for deployed segmentation models, enabling detection of silent failures in underrepresented subgroups without retraining or additional labeled data.