Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
UNMASK: Discovering and Causally Verifying Spurious Shortcuts in Text Classifiers
Chidaksh Ravuru and Shashank Srivastava
Neural
language models trained on large crowdsourced corpora frequently exploit spurious surface patterns tied to target labels without true linguistic or causal relevance, boosting
benchmark performance while failing on
adversarial or out-of-distribution inputs. Existing approaches either require manual specification of the feature vocabulary or automate discovery only partially, leaving the gap between
dataset-level correlation and model-level exploitation unaddressed. We present U N M ASK, a fully automated pipeline that discovers, causally verifies, and mitigates spurious correlations in text classifiers without additional human annotation. Given unlabeled training examples, U N M ASK generates candidate surface patterns as executable boolean expressions, filters them through a statistical validation protocol with independent replication, and establishes causal model dependence via verified counterfactual interventions. Causally confirmed features then serve as annotation-free group definitions for Deep Feature Reweighting, eliminating the group labels that standard DFR requires. Applied to BERT and RoBERTa trained on MNLI, our pipeline independently rediscovers established lexical-overlap and negation biases, verifying 9 of 10 features on BERT and 6 on RoBERTa, and improving HANS accuracy by up to 12.58 pp. On CivilComments-WILDS, programmatic groups match the 70.1% worst- group accuracy of hand-labeled DFR (Kirichenko et al., 2023) without demographic annotation. We further demonstrate that the discovery and validation stages generalize to reward model preference data, surfacing interpretable spurious correlations in RewardBench2.
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Machine Learning
FedA2L: Adaptive layer-wise learning rate adjustment in decentralized federated learning
Van Truong Vo, Khoa Nguyen and Taehong Kim
Decentralized intelligence systems with heterogeneous devices and limited coordination increasingly rely on decentralized
federated learning (DFL). However, DFL suffers from convergence inefficiency under data heterogeneity due to the use of a uniform learning rate (LR) that ignores layer-specific optimization needs. Foundational layers are responsible for maintaining network consensus, while specialized layers adapt to local data characteristics, leading to conflicting gradients and degraded performance under non-IID conditions. To address this fundamental tension, this work introduces FedA2L, a method that dynamically adjusts layer-wise LRs based on model divergence signals. By leveraging local update intensity and network consensus constraints, FedA2L seamlessly integrates into existing DFL protocols without additional communication or coordination. Extensive evaluations across DFL
algorithms, various model architectures, and
datasets demonstrate that FedA2L achieves up to 4.94 times faster convergence than vanilla DFL and reduces communication rounds by up to 59% compared to scheduler-based baselines. Furthermore, FedA2L exhibits resilience to severe data heterogeneity, larger network sizes, and sparse
topologies, reducing communication overhead and establishing it as a versatile optimization tool for resource-constrained or large-scale distributed learning in edge and IoT deployments. The code is released at https://github.com/nclabteam/FedA2L.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
CPDA: Class-Conditional Path Distribution Alignment for Unsupervised Time-Series Domain Adaptation
Felix Ott and Christopher Mutschler
Unsupervised time-series domain adaptation (DA) addresses the challenge of transferring a classifier from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain under distribution shifts induced by different users, sensors, devices, acquisition conditions, or temporal dynamics. Existing methods typically mitigate this shift by aligning marginal feature distributions through
adversarial training, optimal transport, or moment-based discrepancies. In this paper, we propose Class-Conditional Path Distribution
Alignment (CPDA), a non-
adversarial discrepancy-based framework that aligns source and target class-conditional latent path distributions rather than only global feature marginals. CPDA introduces a composite signature-spectral kernel that jointly captures pooled semantic features, temporal path structure, frequency-domain information, and low-rank path-signature dynamics, while using source labels and target soft pseudo-labels to perform class-preserving
alignment. We further provide a theoretical analysis showing that CPDA defines a valid kernel discrepancy, admits existing moment-matching methods as restricted cases, and yields a class-conditional target-risk bound. Extensive experiments with CNN, ResNet18, and TCN backbones on 13 different time-series DA
benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of CPDA against 30 discrepancy,
adversarial, and pseudo-labeling baselines.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Rethinking Medical Landmark Localization with Prototype Learning-based Progressive Offset Correction
Jingxian Xu, Yuhao Huang, Rusi Chen et al. (+2 more)
Accurate landmark localization in medical images is a fundamental step for quantitative clinical measurement and downstream analysis. Existing localization methods have advanced, among which multi-stage refinement is a superior solution. Although this strategy mitigates the anatomical ambiguity inherent in single-stage global predictions, its high computational cost limits practical applicability. In this work, we propose a parameter-economic model, PPOC-LL, which leverages Prototype learning-based Progressive Offset Correction for Landmark Localization. Our contribution is three-fold. First, to drive coarse-to-fine landmark optimization, we introduce a multi-scale dynamic perception strategy for patch-level feature pyramid modeling. Second, to effectively handle anatomically similar patterns, we design a similarity-driven prototype learning mechanism that captures informative local semantics for robust offset prediction. Last, to stabilize the model learning and improve the overall performance, we incorporate a novel error-aware reliability regularization via tolerance-based balancing. We collected a large validation cohort, including two public and one private
datasets spanning X-ray and ultrasound modalities, covering cephalometric, symphysis-fetal head, and fetal heart landmarks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PPOC-LL achieves satisfactory performance with a favorable trade-off between accuracy and model complexity.
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All authors Jingxian Xu, Yuhao Huang, Rusi Chen, Yanfeng Zhou, Dong Ni
Machine Learning
A Time-Frequency Dual-Domain Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Network for Bearing Fault Diagnosis under Strong Noise
Yanxi Ding and Tingyue Jia
To address the degradation of bearing fault diagnosis accuracy under strong noise, this paper proposes a time-frequency dual-domain multi-scale convolutional neural network. The time-domain branch employs three parallel convolutional kernels to capture multi-scale impulse features, while the frequency-domain branch applies the Fast
Fourier Transform to extract noise-robust spectral structure information. Features from both branches are fused for fault classification, yielding a compact model of 110,122 parameters. Experiments on the CWRU bearing
dataset across seven signal-to-noise ratio levels demonstrate that the proposed method achieves 99.75% accuracy under clean conditions and maintains 92.50% at -4 dB SNR, representing a 7.25 percentage-point improvement over the single-domain baseline with monotonically increasing gains under stronger noise. Ablation experiments validate the independent performance contributions of the time-domain multi-scale branch and the frequency-domain branch. Comparative experiments against WDCNN, DRSN-CW, MCNN, and 1D-LeNet confirm the superiority of the proposed method under strong noise conditions.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces
Luís Marques, Kristian Popov and Dmitry Berenson
Reliable uncertainty representation is essential for deploying autonomous systems that interact with their environment, as
robots must reason about how uncertainty arising from both stochasticity and model mismatch is impacted by contacts with obstacles (e.g., when navigating through a cluttered environment or inserting a part into an assembly). We propose Calibrated Particle-sets for Trans-dimensional Uncertainty Representation (CaPTURe), a geometry-aware, conformal prediction-based
algorithm that generates probabilistically valid prediction regions of the unknown future system configuration using particle-based models of arbitrary fidelity. While calibrated uncertainty predictions are essential for safe and efficient planning, analytical or learned motion models are often inaccurate - due to limited data, simplifying assumptions, unmodeled effects, etc. - which can lead to unsafe executions or task failure. Additionally, when a
robot contacts an obstacle, the distribution of its future configurations can become
multimodal or disjoint, or lie along
manifolds of lower intrinsic dimension than the space of possible
robot configurations. Our method uses a calibration
dataset of system transitions to locally calibrate motion uncertainty estimates, constructing regions guaranteed to contain the future
robot configuration at a user-set probability. Our calibration procedure captures how motion uncertainty varies between contact-rich and contactless motions, leading to sufficient coverage in both cases. We evaluate our method on two simulated planning tasks: controlling a marble around a labyrinth and performing tight-tolerance peg-in-hole insertion with a manipulator. Compared to relevant baselines, CaPTURe achieves the user-specified coverage requirement both in and out of contact and achieves up to a 30% absolute improvement in task success rate over the best baseline.
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Machine Learning
Tabular Numeric Stretch Transformation
Zihao Ye, Juyong Kim, Johnna Sundberg et al. (+2 more)
Tabular data presents unique challenges for deep learning due to its heterogeneous nature, where numeric features exhibit diverse distributions, scales, and statistical properties. Although recent advances have improved how models learn from tabular data, how numeric data are transformed into model-friendly representations remains comparatively underexplored. We introduce the stretch transformation framework, which formulates numeric feature preprocessing as an optimization problem to make the target function smoother and thus more learnable. Our framework has two variants: (1) unsupervised stretch, which uniformly redistributes feature density via minimax optimization, and (2) supervised stretch, which optimizes target-aware numeric feature transformations from the perspective of target-function smoothness by minimizing the target function's Dirichlet energy in the transformed space. Our theoretical analysis further connects this framework to several popular transformations: unsupervised stretch is closely related to Piecewise Linear Encoding through a shared piecewise-linear geometry and approaches the empirical CDF transformation as the number of bins grows, while supervised stretch becomes closely related to target encoding in the fine-binning limit. Comprehensive experiments on 38
datasets from the TALENT
benchmark demonstrate that supervised stretch consistently outperforms all baselines. These results show that explicitly optimizing for target function smoothness is a powerful and underexplored strategy for tabular deep learning.
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All authors Zihao Ye, Juyong Kim, Johnna Sundberg, Burak Varici, Pradeep Ravikumar
Machine Learning
SwiftQK: Fast and Communication-Efficient Tensor Parallelism for Query-Key Normalization
Gyudong Kim, Wonjun Han and Young Geun Kim
Query-Key Normalization (QK-Norm) improves the training stability and quality of modern Large
Language Models (LLMs). However, under Tensor Parallelism (TP), layerwise QK-Norm introduces additional cross-GPU communication because the normalization factor depends on the full hidden vector. We present SwiftQK, a multi-GPU RMSNorm kernel that exchanges only scalar normalization statistics and overlaps the remaining Peer-to-Peer reduction with independent element-wise computation in a deadlock-safe persistent kernel. Evaluations on recent LLMs show that SwiftQK reduces QK-Norm latency by 81.4–93.9% relative to the standard TP QK-Norm using full-vector All-Gather. In end-to-end serving, SwiftQK reduces TPOT on average by 29.5% over the All-Gather-based baseline and by 14.3% over an optimized scalar-aggregation implementation.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
TRACE: TRajectory Attribution for Automated Context Engineering
Yikai Zhao, Pradeep Kumar Misra and Saurabh Pandey
Production AI
agents fail when their context sources – system
prompts, knowledge bases, tool descriptions, and procedural skills – contain errors or gaps. Current maintenance relies on manual log review and ad-hoc debugging, creating a scalability bottleneck as interaction volume grows. We present TRACE (TRajectory Attribution for Automated Context Engineering), an automated feedback loop that mines historical
agent trajectories to diagnose and remediate context failures. Our key insight is that trajectories are rich with implicit dissatisfaction signals – user corrections, rephrasing, abandonment cues – that reveal precisely where context sources failed, without explicit feedback collection. Unlike model fine-tuning, TRACE operates on the context layer, enabling rapid iteration without retraining. We make four contributions: (1) a trajectory mining framework that systematically extracts diagnostic information from historical
agent executions; (2) multi-component causal attribution that extends textual gradients from monolithic
prompt optimization to heterogeneous context sources (skills, knowledge bases, tools,
prompts); (3) exploratory verification, where
agents actively read context sources to distinguish content gaps requiring CREATE from stale content requiring UPDATE, achieving 96% operation accuracy; and (4) a reusable simulation methodology and verifiable
benchmark addressing the absence of open
datasets for context debugging, with a six-category fault taxonomy, ground truth annotations, and a cross-layer verification protocol. On 60 dissatisfaction traces spanning three complexity tiers (up to 16 execution nodes), TRACE achieves 72.7% root cause attribution and 82% end-to-end fix effectiveness, showing that over 80% of context-layer failures can be automatically diagnosed and remediated by mining historical trajectories, an overlooked resource in production systems.
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Machine Learning
MARA: Flow-Matching-Guided Multi-Agent Resource Allocation for Computational Resource Efficient Learning
Hanye Zhao, Muning Wen, Yong Yu et al. (+1 more)
Allocating limited computation among concurrent learning tasks is difficult when each task must reach a target loss before a deadline but its required training effort is unknown. Existing approaches combine online loss prediction with adaptive resource allocation, yet commonly treat computation as continuously divisible throughput. We instead study a practical setting in which tasks arrive over time and computation is provided by discrete nodes. This setting introduces both uncertain demand and constrained sequential decisions. We propose MARA, which predicts future loss trajectories with conditional flow matching and coordinates compute nodes through a cooperative multi-
agent autoregressive policy. A potential-based progress reward supplies intermediate training feedback while preserving the undiscounted task-completion objective. Across in-distribution, reinforcement-learning, and
vision workloads, flow matching reduces remaining-resource prediction error relative to weighted least squares. At the scheduler's training load, MARA completes 63.46% of tasks on average, 8.54 percentage points above strong baseline Learning with Adaptive Resource Allocation (LARA), and remains ahead under unseen heavier workloads.
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All authors Hanye Zhao, Muning Wen, Yong Yu, Weinan Zhang
Machine Learning
A Probabilistic Circuit-Induced Pseudo-Metric for Out-of-Distribution Detection
Bhumika K, Vidhya S and Narayanan C Krishnan
Probabilistic
Circuits (PCs) are tractable generative models whose internal nodes encode a hierarchy of probabilistic summaries over different variable scopes. Existing PC-based out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods ignore this hierarchy, reducing the entire
circuit to the scalar likelihood (or its uncertainty) computed at the root. We introduce Hierarchical Likelihood Vector (HLV), a representation whose entries are the likelihoods associated with selected PC nodes and define the Hierarchical Likelihood Distance (HLD), a PC-induced pseudo-metric that compares the probability distributions through the expectations of their HLVs. We show that HLD is an integral probability metric over a function class naturally induced by the PC and develop a principled goodness-of-fit hypothesis test for unsupervised OOD detection. Unlike existing approaches, the trained PC alone serves as the representation of the in-distribution: no held-out in-distribution data are required at deployment. We further show that the quantities required by the hypothesis test can be computed exactly, directly from the trained
circuit, yielding an approximate analytic decision threshold. Experiments on tabular and MNIST
datasets demonstrate that exploiting the hierarchical probabilistic summaries encoded through the PC improve OOD detection over root-likelihood, uncertainty-, typicality- and kernel-based baselines, while naturally localizing distribution shifts to the PC nodes responsible for the shift.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cond-mat.mtrl-sci
Multitask Scanning Probe Microscopy
Aditya Raghavan, Yu Liu, Ian Mercer et al. (+2 more)
Scanning probe microscopy provides nanoscale access to structural, electrical, electromechanical,
magnetic, and mechanical properties of materials. Its increasing use for wafer-scale characterization and combinatorial materials exploration creates a need to distribute measurements efficiently across large spatial domains. This is particularly important when available modalities differ in acquisition time and potential for tip and sample damage, making exhaustive
multimodal mapping over spatial grids impractical. Here, we demonstrate multitask scanning probe microscopy, a live, closed-loop workflow in which a multitask Gaussian process learns spatial and cross-modal relationships and autonomously selects both the next measurement location and the next experimental protocol. The approach is implemented on an automated large-sample atomic force microscope and demonstrated on a composition-spread AlScN wafer using tapping-mode and Dual AC Resonance Tracking (DART) measurements. Paired initial measurements establish the relation between the tasks, after which noncoincident measurements are used to update both response landscapes. The resulting workflow extends active learning in scanning probe microscopy from spatial sampling to autonomous allocation of measurement modalities and provides a basis for combining rapid, weakly perturbative imaging with slower contact, electrical, electromechanical,
magnetic, or spectroscopic measurements.
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All authors Aditya Raghavan, Yu Liu, Ian Mercer, JP Maria, Sergei Kalinin
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Contrastive Mask Fidelity: Reference-Free Auditing of Ground-Truth Masks in Remote Sensing Semantic Segmentation
Shuaishuai Cao, Shuwei Peng, Meng Tang et al. (+5 more)
Semantic
segmentation models are trained and evaluated against human-drawn masks, yet remote-sensing annotations are often coarse, incomplete, or misaligned; high overlap scores may then reflect agreement with imperfect labels rather than faithfulness to the image, creating an evaluation paradox. We introduce Contrastive Mask Fidelity (CMF), a training-free, reference-free metric that scores competing class masks directly against image evidence. CMF composites keep and erase counterfactual views of each mask and asks a frozen
vision-
language judge whether class evidence is concentrated inside the mask and absent outside. We validate CMF on controlled mask corruptions, then audit 10,731 image-class pairs across ten remote-sensing
benchmarks using candidate masks from Seg-Probe, a training-free open-vocabulary probe built on SegEarth-OV3 that outperforms prior baselines on nine of ten
datasets. The audit reveals systematic, class-dependent annotation distortion: man-made classes such as buildings, roads, and cars favor the candidate mask on 62-85% of pairs, whereas ambiguous land cover more often favors human annotations. On a blinded three-annotator consensus, CMF matches expert judgment on 81% of pairs, exceeding keep-only scoring, model confidence, and a trained label-quality baseline. Finally, conservative class-wise arbitration yields supervision that improves cross-domain transfer over raw annotations and matched replacement controls, positioning CMF as a scalable tool for
auditing ground truth rather than presuming it infallible.
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All authors Shuaishuai Cao, Shuwei Peng, Meng Tang, Min Huang, Youjin Wang, Jie Chen, Jing Ouyang, Zhiwei Zhai
Machine Learning
Real Data Closes Synthetic-to-Real Gap in Optical Chemical Structure Recognition
Yani Guan, Dengpan Dong, Zi Wei et al. (+4 more)
Millions of chemical structures appear in patents and papers only as drawings, and using that information at scale requires reading the drawings. OCSR appears nearly solved on synthetic images yet remains difficult on real documents: the starting recognizer, Qwen2.5-VL-7B, exceeds 91% accuracy on synthetic renders but falls below 16% on three real-world
benchmarks (ACS, CLEF-IP, USPTO). To identify the main source of improvement, 21 recognizers were fine-tuned on mixtures of synthetically rendered structures and labeled real depictions from patents, journal figures, and hand-drawn collections, varying the
vision language model (VLM) base, the fraction of real training data, and the
vision-tower adaptation strategy. Labeled real training images make the largest difference. For Qwen2.5-VL, ACS exact match rises from 0.15 with no real data to 0.37 at 9.5% and 0.46 at 50.2%; a controlled experiment across three base models reproduces the trend. A
vision-tower LoRA, in contrast, does nothing for Qwen (+0.00, paired p=1.00), substantially helps InternVL3-8B (+22.8 to +34.6 pt), and modestly helps GLM-4.1V-9B (+1.0 to +9.6 pt), so its value depends on the base model. The best configuration reaches 0.96 exact match on clean renders and 0.49, 0.65, 0.84, and 0.76 on ACS, CLEF-IP, UOB, and USPTO, respectively. Gaps between base models are largest without real data (0.21), shrink to 0.06 at 70% real data, and reorder the ranking; base model and real-data mixture must therefore be selected together. Small-scale experiments on handwritten image-to-LaTeX recognition and chart-to-table conversion show that base-model rankings also vary beyond chemistry. More generally, model and adaptation choices for visual structure recognition should be evaluated on the target task.
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All authors Yani Guan, Dengpan Dong, Zi Wei, Shuang Luo, Dan Hannah, Yumin Zhang, Kang Xu
Machine Learning
RAVEN: Frozen Random Graph Reservoirs with Physics-Informed Interaction Fingerprints for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction
Qingyang Zou, Jiaye Huang, Hangbo Xie et al. (+3 more)
Quantitative estimation of
protein-ligand binding affinity from three-dimensional complex structures is a fundamental task in structure-based computational chemistry and molecular modeling. Reliable prediction remains challenging because available structure-affinity data are limited, experimentally heterogeneous, conformation-dependent, and sensitive to
dataset partitioning. RAVEN (Randomized Atomistic Views with Ensemble Neural Reservoirs) utilizes a multihead reservoir of independently initialized and fully frozen atomistic graph encoders to generate diverse structural projections without end-to-end optimization of the graph representation. These projections are integrated with a deterministic physicochemical interaction fingerprint and processed by heterogeneous supervised readers, including neural and tree-based regressors, whose outputs are combined through validation-based nonnegative fusion. The random reservoir expands structural feature coverage across independent encoder realizations, whereas the explicit physicochemical descriptors and heterogeneous readers contribute complementary information and distinct inductive biases. Evaluation on a similarity-isolated PDBbind 2020R1 split reconstructed using GEMS similarity resources, together with the protected CASF-2016 subset, demonstrated strong predictive performance. The results indicate that frozen multi-view graph representations, explicit physicochemical statistics, and heterogeneous model fusion provide a robust and flexible framework for
protein-ligand binding-affinity prediction.
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All authors Qingyang Zou, Jiaye Huang, Hangbo Xie, Jiayue Yin, Youyi Song, Jinfeng Liu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
A Multi-Scale Temporal Framework with Dynamic Fusion for EEG-Based Emotion Recognition
Stefanos Gkikas, Yang Guo, Guangliang Li et al. (+3 more)
Mixed
emotions represent a clinically relevant but still underexplored target for automatic
emotion recognition.
EEG provides millisecond-level access to neural activity, yet most
EEG pipelines analyze the signal through a single temporal window, thereby fixing the temporal structure available to the model. This study introduces a multi-scale temporal framework for
EEG-based
emotion recognition. The
EEG waveform is decomposed into windows of one or several durations, processed by a shared
attention-based encoder, and integrated through a dynamic fusion module that assigns sample-specific weights across temporal scales. The framework is evaluated under a subject-independent protocol in binary and three-class settings, with the three-class task including the mixed affective category. The best results are 65.22% for the two-class task and 45.43% for the three-class task. Both are obtained with three-scale dynamic-fusion configurations and remain substantially above the full-signal baseline. The best-performing temporal scales differ between the two tasks. Dynamic fusion outperforms concatenation in the highest-scoring two-class configuration and slightly exceeds it in the highest-scoring three-class configuration, although these multi-scale settings require substantially more computation than the full-signal baseline.
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All authors Stefanos Gkikas, Yang Guo, Guangliang Li, Raul Fernandez Rojas, Giorgos Giannakakis, Randy Gomez
Machine Learning
F2STNet: Fair and Federated Spectral-Temporal Modeling for Graph Forecasting
Jiayi Zhang, Jinfeng Xu, Hewei Wang et al. (+7 more)
Spatiotemporal prediction on graph-structured data is central to traffic
forecasting and environmental monitoring, yet decentralized and heterogeneous data complicate both sequence modeling and collaborative training. We propose F$^2$STNet, a
federated forecasting framework that combines truncated graph-
Fourier features, a lightweight diagonal state-space temporal encoder, graph convolution, and
Fairness-aware
Federated Aggregation (FFA). The spectral branch exposes graph-frequency structure, while the state-space layer models long temporal dependencies with linear complexity in the sequence length. FFA adjusts the FedAvg prior using client validation losses and an increasing
fairness schedule. Experiments on PeMS04, HZMetro, and KnowAir show favorable
forecasting accuracy relative to the evaluated baselines;
federated experiments on PeMS04 additionally improve worst-client and client-dispersion metrics.
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All authors Jiayi Zhang, Jinfeng Xu, Hewei Wang, Siyuan Cen, Haidong Huang, Yiyao Zhan, Zheyu Chen, Jinjiang You, Ai Jian, Edith C. H. Ngai
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
When Confidence Fails: Overconfidence in LLMs under Uncertainty and Missing Clinical Information
Maryam Tahermazandarani, Adnan Mahmood, Fahmida Islam et al. (+1 more)
Large
Language Models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance in medical question answering and clinical
reasoning tasks. However, their reliability under uncertainty remains poorly understood which raises critical concerns for deployment in high-stakes clinical settings. In such environments, incorrect predictions are inherently risky, but confident incorrect predictions can be particularly harmful as they may mislead clinical decision-making. In this paper, we conduct a systematic behavioral analysis of LLMs under clinical information uncertainty. We propose an evaluation framework based on the MedMCQA
dataset consisting of two complementary uncertainty settings. First, we introduce linguistic uncertainty cues through
prompt modifications to simulate ambiguous clinical contexts. Second, we construct an answer removal setting, wherein the correct option is deliberately excluded mandating the model to recognize insufficient information and abstain. We analyze both model accuracy and confidence behavior using multiple calibration metrics including calibration gap, Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Unsafe Confident Error Rate (UCER) across 500 medical questions. Our results reveal a consistent failure mode, i.e., although accuracy degrades under increasing uncertainty, model confidence remains misaligned with accuracy. This leads to a substantial increase in unsafe confident errors, indicating that model confidence remains largely insensitive to clinically meaningful information loss. Furthermore, we observe significant variation across models in their ability to abstain when the correct answer is unavailable, with some models persistently producing high confidence hallucinated answers. These findings expose critical limitations in the epistemic reliability of current LLMs and highlight the need for uncertainty aware evaluation methods prior to their deployment in clinical workflows.
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All authors Maryam Tahermazandarani, Adnan Mahmood, Fahmida Islam, Quan Z. Sheng
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Personalized Federated Learning via Variance-Aware Nonparametric Empirical Bayes
Jae Ho Chang, Arnab Auddy and Subhadeep Paul
We develop a new approach to Personalized
Federated Learning across heterogeneous clients using Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (NPEB). Leveraging the asymptotic normality of local parameter estimates obtained from Empirical Risk Minimization or M-estimation, our method formulates these estimates as noisy observations to estimate an unknown shared prior via Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood. A key challenge in applying NPEB in this setting is that existing approaches assume known fixed variances, which is not true in practice. To address this, we introduce a Variance-Aware Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (VANEB) framework that leverages the parameter-dependent asymptotic variance of local M-
estimators. A key technical contribution is a generalized Tweedie's formula for this heteroskedastic setting. We then establish non-asymptotic error rates for density estimation in the average squared Hellinger distance and derive an oracle denoising inequality that provides error bounds for our
estimator. While our theoretical guarantees are rooted in the asymptotic regime of M-
estimators, we empirically explore heuristic extensions of VANEB to modern
federated learning settings involving Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). For DNNs, we propose VANEB-head and VANEB-FT, which personalize the last fully connected layer via an NPEB step using an approximate diagonal variance
estimator. We show that our method has strong performance on popular
vision datasets MNIST and CIFAR-10, using a convolutional neural network architecture.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP
Diagnosing as Cardiologists Do: ECG Agents with Doctor-Grounded Priors for Clinical Reasoning Across Diseases and Populations
Hongxiang Gao, He-yang Xu, Yuwen Li et al. (+6 more)
Cardiologists interpret electrocardiograms by localizing waveform components, measuring rhythm and interval patterns, and translating these structured observations into diagnostic evidence. Whether this expert reading process can serve as an effective prior for ECG
agents remains unclear. To address this question, we introduce LuminaECG, a clinically structured ECG
reasoning framework that reformulates ECG interpretation as measurement-grounded visual reading. ECG signals are rendered on standard electrocardiographic grid paper to preserve the spatial and scale cues used in clinical reading. P-wave, QRS-complex, and T-wave boundaries are explicitly delineated, and color-coded
segmentation decomposes the waveform into discrete visual measurement primitives. A general 2B
vision-
language backbone is then trained with low-rank supervised fine-tuning to associate these primitives with diagnostic
reasoning, without architectural modification. Across open, proprietary, and ECG-specialist zero-shot baselines, LuminaECG improves both waveform measurement and diagnostic recovery. It reaches a clinically meaningful reader tier on the CODE-test
benchmark, transfers across geographically diverse ECG
datasets without retraining, and generates reports whose structure contains an emergent prognostic signal. These findings suggest that effective ECG
agents require not only larger models, but supervision that preserves the
alignment between measurable waveform evidence and clinical knowledge.
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All authors Hongxiang Gao, He-yang Xu, Yuwen Li, Minghui Zhao, Zhipeng Cai, Xingyao Wang, Chenxi Yang, Jianqing Li, Chengyu Liu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GT
Decision-Focused Learning in Network Interdiction Games
Luca M. Hartmann and Parinaz Naghizadeh
We study decision-focused learning (DFL) in shortest-path network interdiction (SPNI) games, a Stackelberg game where an interdictor (leader) strengthens the networks' arcs against attacks, while an evader (follower) who is uncertain about costs of attacking network arcs relies on a machine-learned predictor to identify the shortest path. While DFL is highly effective as an end-to-end optimization framework, we show that it faces a fundamental structural failure when employed in this game setting: its training objective admits a broad decision-equivalence class of cost
estimators that achieve zero nominal loss yet fail under interdiction, reversing DFL's usual advantage over a naive prediction-focused learning (PFL) approach. To address this, we propose
Adversarial DFL (A-DFL), which replaces nominal training samples with interdicted scenarios to collapse the harmful equivalence class. Experiments on synthetic and real-world networks confirm that A-DFL restores DFL's advantage in this game setting, enabling effective end-to-end optimization.
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Machine Learning
HOPPER: Learnable Hop Extraction for Linearized Graph Sequence Models
Isuru Herath, Arin Gopakumar and Sharan Sahu
Graph neural networks typically propagate information through repeated message-passing layers, coupling propagation distance with the number of nonlinear transformations applied. This coupling can make deep architectures difficult to optimize and lead to over-smoothing, over-squashing, and loss of long-range information. Linearized Graph Sequence Models (LGSMs) address this issue by separating propagation depth from processing depth and representing successive propagation states of each node as a sequence. However, existing LGSMs construct these sequences using fixed graph operators, limiting their ability to adapt propagation to the input graph, node features, and downstream task. We introduce HOPPER, an end-to-end learnable extension of LGSM that learns how hop sequences should be extracted before processing by a modern state-space model. HOPPER supports feature-conditioned, structure-aware, graph and hop-adaptive propagation while preserving permutation equivariance, with standard adjacency-based and non-backtracking LGSM sequences arising as special cases of the extractor family. HOPPER is state-of-the-art or competitive across ECHO-Synth and performs strongly on City-Networks. On the LRIM physics-based long-range dependency
benchmark, varying the maximum neighborhood size used for message-backtracking cancellation, corresponding to the structural
memory window, substantially affects performance. Ablations further isolate the contributions of the learnable extraction mechanism and its structural and feature-adaptive components, showing that adaptive hop-sequence construction provides gains beyond the downstream sequence model alone. Together, these results demonstrate that learnable sequence extraction is a flexible and effective framework for long-range graph representation learning across synthetic, physics-based and real-world graph
benchmarks.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY
Closing the loop in learning with missing data
Dimitrios Pylorof and Humberto E. Garcia
What should a machine learning model learn when data is missing during training? We look at the learning process from a dynamical systems perspective, cast data missingness as a structured loss of actuation that limits controllability of the parameter error dynamics, and ultimately derive adaptation mechanisms with Lyapunov stability characteristics that throttle model updates in ways that preserve learning coherence under partial, intermittent observability. Under recurrent excitation, our analysis provides ISS-type residual-to-state bounds with respect to a bounded closed-loop mismatch between the loss residual and the preconditioned update geometry. We evaluate the efficacy of our directional observability-aware adaptive learning approach on
multimodal contexts, reinforcing its premise in promoting learning coherence and stability even in pathologically sparse domains and problems.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR
PreGress: Ranking-Native Pre-training and Prompting for Graph Node Ranking
Lujie Ban, Jiasheng shi, Yingli Zhou et al. (+5 more)
Node ranking is a fundamental problem in graph information
retrieval, measuring the relative importance of nodes and supporting a wide range of applications such as influence analysis, recommendation, and graph-based
retrieval augmented generation. However, exact computation of graph-based ranking measures is often computationally prohibitive at scale. Existing GNN-based ranking methods provide scalable approximations, but they are typically tailored to individual ranking criteria and require retraining for each downstream task, which limits their transferability and efficiency. Recent graph pre-training approaches aim to enable knowledge transfer across tasks, yet their learning objectives are largely misaligned with node ranking, resulting in suboptimal adaptability to ranking-oriented applications. To address these limitations, we propose PreGress, the first ranking-native pre-training and prompting framework for supporting a wide range of node ranking tasks. PreGress performs multi-task pre-training using our carefully designed objectives, including degree centrality prediction and attribute reconstruction, to jointly capture structural and attribute information. To support heterogeneous ranking criteria, we design lightweight, task-specific
prompt modules that adapt a frozen ranking backbone to downstream tasks without full retraining. Experiments on six public graphs and two real-world query-to-item
benchmarks—Yelp2018 and MovieLens-100K—together with a controlled five-criterion graph-access study demonstrate strong ranking quality with low task-specific state overhead.
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All authors Lujie Ban, Jiasheng shi, Yingli Zhou, Kaiwen Xue, Daiyin Wang, Xubin Li, Shuanghua Li, Chenhao Ma
Machine Learning
Dynamic Distribution-Aware Uncertainty Tracking in Vision-Language Representation Learning
Ao Zhou, Zhiwei Jiang, Zifeng Cheng et al. (+4 more)
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) aims to measure the reliability of model predictions, serving as a critical safeguard for deploying
Vision-
Language Models (VLMs) in safety-critical scenarios. Post-hoc approaches are widely adopted due to their lightweight nature, mapping the outputs of VLMs to uncertainty measures through learnable modules or inductive summarization. However, Post-hoc approaches remain inherently confined to fitting the failure patterns of the source domain, ignoring the dynamic nature of test distributions. To address this challenge, we propose a Dynamic Distribution-Aware Uncertainty Quantification framework (DDA-UQ) that shifts the paradigm from static mapping to a dynamic distribution-aware process. During training, we leverage a Gaussian Mixture Model to model the VVLMs'
embedding space and extract distributional evidence, thereby dynamically deriving uncertainty estimates. During inference, the design dynamically responds to changes in the data distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
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All authors Ao Zhou, Zhiwei Jiang, Zifeng Cheng, Cong Wang, Shufan Yang, Haoru Chen, Qing Gu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC
A Tight Lower Bound for Smooth Nonconvex Stochastic Optimization with Bounded Gradient Noise
Jikai Jin
We prove a sharp lower bound for smooth nonconvex
stochastic optimization with uniformly bounded gradient noise. In the \(K=1\) fresh-sample model, every randomized adaptive
algorithm requires $$\Omega\left( \frac{\Delta L}{\epsilon^2} + \frac{\Delta L\sigma^2}{\epsilon^4} \right)$$ queries to find a point with expected gradient norm at most \(\epsilon\). This matches the standard upper bound and, to the best of our knowledge, resolves the question raised by [Arjevani et al. 2023] of whether almost-surely bounded oracle error permits a better rate than bounded variance. The proof was independently generated with GPT-5.6 Sol in Codex's Ultra mode during a two-hour session. The human author supplied the
prompt and was responsible only forchecking the proof and revising and polishing the manuscript.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
Mind the Hook: Source-Level Auditing of Privacy Defenses in Retrieval-Augmented Generation
Yanhang Li, Zhichao Fan and Zexin Zhuang
Black-box
privacy scores for
retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) are difficult to interpret unless the audited defense's active pipeline hook is known. We propose an active-path audit: inventory source-level hooks over
retrieval, retrieved content, and generation; map each metric to the leakage channel it observes; and validate generated-text effects with exact-match canaries. In our
benchmark reimplementations, the DP-style defenses modify
retrieval scores only: their generation hooks are TODO-flagged stubs that return responses unchanged. This active path explains why they affect membership-inference behavior but track No-Defense on generated-text named-entity leakage, measured by NEL_strict. By contrast, the end-to-end LPRAG path is canary-validated on the email channel, recovering 53/150 canaries under No-Defense and 0/150 under LPRAG. These findings concern our reimplementations on our stack, not released defenses or defense families; the contribution is a methodology and case study, not a universal ranking
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR
Guardian Crawler: Retrieval-First Knowledge Discovery with Bounded LLM Augmentation for Noisy Web Intelligence
Joshua Castillo, Santosh Nukavarapu and Ravi Mukkamala
Retrieving relevant evidence from noisy web data is challenging, particularly in sensitive domains containing incomplete reports, heterogeneous
language, and irrelevant content. We present Guardian Crawler, a reproducible
retrieval-first testbed for controlled experiments on knowledge discovery and evidence-grounded summarization over synthetic web-like corpora. The architecture combines BM25
retrieval with risk-aware,
embedding-augmented, and hybrid reranking, followed by constrained
retrieval-augmented generation with explicit document citations. Experiments on a synthetic 900-document corpus and 10 queries produced the highest descriptive
retrieval scores under risk-based reranking, with P@10 = 1.00 and NDCG@10 = 0.94, compared with 0.94 and 0.81 for BM25. The best hybrid and BM25+Semantic configurations reached NDCG@10 values of 0.94 and 0.88, respectively. All 41 evaluable generated bullets passed the lexical coverage threshold; an automated LLM judge classified 36 as supported, one as partially supported, and four as unsupported. These results demonstrate the feasibility of Guardian Crawler as a controlled testbed but do not establish statistical superiority, human-validated faithfulness, or transfer to live-web investigative environments.
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Machine Learning
SoftMCC: An MCC-Brier Calibration Bridge for Threshold-Free Model Selection under Class Imbalance
Özkan Canay
Model selection for imbalanced binary classification often uses the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), but its thresholding step makes validation rankings depend on the chosen cutoff. SoftMCC is a post-training MCC validation framework built on established probability-valued confusion counts, coupling an MCC-specific calibrated identity with a tie-aware, shared-pool selection protocol. Its core score is a covariance-normalized probability-label association, reduces exactly to MCC for hard predictions, and is Pearson-bounded. Under perfect population calibration it equals the Brier skill score with identical candidate ordering, which is the calibrated case of Murphy's partition of the Brier score. Outside that regime the gap does not identify calibration error. Across 18 settings with 12 duplicate-safe grouped repeats, SoftMCC attains the best stability mean rank (2.31) and highest mean tie-corrected Kendall's W (0.659), with a significant Friedman test (p=0.004). Nemenyi analysis separates it from area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) and MCC@0.5, and 14-source-family sensitivity retains both separations. For selected-model utility, none of six prespecified paired comparisons is significant before or after Holm correction (smallest raw p=0.093), and the
dataset-level test is not significant (p=0.746). Label permutation lowers mean W to 0.092. Temperature scaling shifts SoftMCC rankings (mean Spearman 0.851) whereas rank-based and threshold-optimized metrics remain invariant. SoftMCC is a calibration-sensitive MCC-family selector with bounded stability evidence and inconclusive utility differences.
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Machine Learning
Twin Rollouts: Noise-Coupled Counterfactual Branching in Interactive Video World Models
Yu Ma, Hongli Shi and Xinran Xu
Interactive
video world models generate rollouts autoregressively under an action stream, yet they are trained and evaluated almost exclusively on factual prediction. We study counterfactual generation inside the rollout: given a trajectory the model has itself generated, what would have happened had the actions differed from step t* onward? We formalize noise-coupled twin rollouts — a factual and a counterfactual branch sharing the generated prefix and the future exogenous noise sequence, diverging only in the action stream at an intervention point. Because the factual branch is self-generated, its exogenous noise is known exactly: the abduction step of Pearl's counterfactual procedure is exact by construction, sidestepping the approximate-inversion problem faced by editing-based pipelines. Noise coupling further turns the minimal-change principle into a per-sample verifiable property: we define a spatiotemporal locality metric that penalizes divergence outside the causal descendants of the intervention, computable against simulator ground truth without a learned judge. Forking the simulator state at t* yields ground-truth counterfactual re-renders, which we use as verifiable rewards for post-training. This note establishes the formal framework, metric definitions, and positioning; experiments are forthcoming.
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