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Friday 7 August

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Measuring Concept Content in Text from LLM Activations: ESG Evidence from Concept Vectors and Linear Probes

Recent work shows that Large Language Models (LLMs) encode more information in their activations than they show in their responses. We ask whether the information contained in activations could be used as a source of measurement for the presence of concepts. We compare two algorithms for extraction of concepts, i.e., Recursive Feature Machine (RFM) algorithm and linear probing against an embedding baseline, surface baselines, and the model's own response using a human-annotated Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) dataset of financial texts. The best linear probe ranges from 0.6 to 3.3 percentage points below fine-tuned domain classifiers. The probes also outscore the model's own response in all comparisons. Furthermore, the probes outperform the RFM concept vectors in all accuracy comparisons. In a synthetic mixture test, their mean-pooled score tracks the number of concept sentences in a paragraph better than the concept-vector score. Put together, a linear probe on a frozen LLM is a cost-effective and generalizable alternative to fine-tuning a domain classifier.
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Machine Learning

An AI4AI Framework for Visual Token Pruning

Visual-token pruning can substantially reduce the inference cost of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), yet existing methods largely rely on fixed, handcrafted heuristics and costly expert trial and error. As pruning objectives, budgets, and model architectures diversify, manually navigating the expanding design space becomes increasingly difficult. This paper aims to build an AI4AI framework for visual-token pruning by addressing a natural question: Can large language models automatically design effective visual-token reduction algorithms? Although LLMs possess broad algorithmic knowledge and strong reasoning capabilities, translating such general knowledge into effective solutions for a specialized task remains nontrivial. We argue that the key lies in designing an appropriate search-state representation that connects the internal knowledge of LLMs with the structural requirements and constraints of visual-token pruning. Based on this insight, we propose AutoPrune, a training-free framework for LLM-driven visual-token pruning policy design. At its core, AutoPrune introduces a Token Pruning Domain-Specific Language (TPDSL) comprising 131 reusable atoms for budget control, token scoring, selection constraints, and token reassembly. A key property of TPDSL is that it represents each search state as a residual modification of a strong base policy. This residual formulation narrows the search space and directs the LLM's attention toward the policy components that are most consequential for performance. Experiments on 14 multimodal benchmarks and three MLLM backbones demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and transferability of AutoPrune. Even when removing 94.4% of visual tokens, AutoPrune preserves more than 99% of full-token performance while reducing FLOPs by 9.9x and prefill latency by 6.4x.
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All authors Zhen Liu, Wenli Huang, Wei Song, Yuhan Liu, Zhiqin Yang, Jingwen Fu

Machine Learning

MAUPITI: On-Device Prototype-Based Learning on a Smart Infrared Sensor

Low-resolution infrared (IR) array sensors represent an interesting solution for privacy-preserving human sensing in embedded systems. In this letter, we describe a smart multi-pixel IR sensor integrating a 16$\times$16 thermal MOSFET (TMOS) array and a RISC-V microcontroller extended with low-precision SIMD instructions, capable of on-device learning and continual adaptation for pose and gesture recognition tasks under tight memory and power constraints ($<$32kB on-chip memory, $\approx$1.5mW). To avoid the memory overheads of backpropagation and replay buffers, we adopt a prototype-based Nearest Class Mean (NCM) classifier in which a simple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encoder is trained and quantized offline, while class prototypes are stored and updated on the device in streaming mode. With experiments on two datasets, we show that this approach yields accuracy on par with a conventional classifier, with negligible latency overheads in both the classification and the prototype update ($<$0.29% considering both phases), effectively enabling online adaptation of the perception framework.
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All authors Beatrice Alessandra Motetti, Tanguy Dugas du Villard, Matteo Risso, Alessio Burrello, Francesco Daghero, Enrico Macii, Massimo Poncino, Marco Castellano, Alfio Basile, Daniele Jahier Pagliari

Machine Learning

Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

Multimodal fusion architectures typically assume all modalities are available at inference, yet sensor failures, acquisition variability, and cost constraints routinely produce incomplete observations. Existing work treats modality absence as a prediction-accuracy problem, leaving a more basic question unanswered: whether a model's confidence estimates remain calibrated when an entire input stream is removed. We argue that missing-modality robustness and calibrated uncertainty are a single coupled property, and introduce Modality-Conditioned Conformal Fusion (MCCF), an architecture that addresses both at once. MCCF combines a multimodal bottleneck fusion backbone trained with modality dropout, per-modality evidential heads producing modality-decomposed Dirichlet distributions, and a Dempster-Shafer combination rule that fuses the per-modality evidence into a joint predictive distribution; an absent modality contributes vacuous evidence that is structurally ignored, so the fused uncertainty automatically reflects the reduced information without test-time imputation. A Mondrian conformal calibration module keyed on the modality-presence mask then provides finite-sample group-conditional coverage for every non-empty modality subset. MCCF is, to our knowledge, the first method with formal coverage guarantees under arbitrary modality availability through architectural integration rather than post-hoc recalibration, and the evidential decomposition yields per-modality vacuity scores that localise uncertainty to the absent modality responsible. Across a synthetic problem and three real multimodal benchmarks, MCCF holds its target coverage on every modality-presence subset, substantially narrows the coverage gap between full and partial modalities relative to a marginal split-conformal baseline, and imposes no measurable accuracy cost relative to temperature-scaled and evidential baselines.
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Machine Learning

Momba: Network Modernization Improves Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning (RL) have shown that improving neural network architectures can yield substantial gains in sample efficiency and asymptotic performance without altering the underlying algorithms. In contrast, work on multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL), which aims to discover a set of policies that balance trade-offs among conflicting objectives, has predominantly focused on algorithmic innovations, leaving the area of architectures underexplored. While the optimal policies and value functions can differ significantly depending on the trade-offs, MORL algorithms commonly represent them with simple feedforward networks conditioned on the trade-off. This raises the question of whether the performance of the algorithms could be improved with more expressive function approximators. In this paper, we integrate recent advances in neural network design: (i) observation and feature normalization, (ii) weight normalization, and (iii) modeling of distributional returns with an entropy-regularized MORL algorithm. The empirical results across standard continuous control benchmarks demonstrate that these changes substantially improve the quality of the produced solution sets without requiring major changes to the underlying algorithm.
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All authors Adam Štafa, Santeri Heiskanen, Petr Novotný, Joni Pajarinen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Agent Memory Distillation: Empowering Small LLM Agents with Hierarchical Teacher Memory

Memory systems have shown promise for improving agent performance, but their potential remains largely unexplored for small language models, which struggle to generate sufficient successful trajectories on their own. We propose Agent Memory Distillation (AMD), a training-free framework that transfers structured knowledge from a large teacher agent to a small student agent through hierarchical memory. AMD constructs three complementary memory types from successful teacher trajectories: Workflow memory encodes task-level strategies, Subtask memory provides concrete behavioral examples at an intermediate granularity, and Function memory captures per-function calling conventions and common pitfalls. Workflow and Subtask memories are injected proactively at the start of each task, while Function memory is retrieved reactively upon tool-calling errors. We evaluate AMD on three tool-use benchmarks using four student models (4B-8B parameters) with GPT-5-mini as the teacher, achieving average accuracy gains of 27.2%p, 11.2%p, and 3.4%p on AppWorld, BFCL V3, and ToolSandbox, while consistently outperforming existing memory-based baselines. Further analysis shows that Subtask memory contributes the largest gains, teacher effectiveness depends on both teacher capability and student compatibility, and 4B-sized students benefit most from AMD.
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Machine Learning

Fluid-DiT: Graph-Free Diffusion Transformers for Fluid Flow Simulations Learning

Simulating complex fluid flows requires capturing full equilibrium distributions rather than just mean trajectories, yet high-fidelity solvers remain computationally prohibitive. Recent advances, such as Diffusion Graph Networks (DGNs), have combined diffusion models with graph neural networks to sample equilibrium states directly from unstructured meshes, enabling distributional accuracy even from short simulations. However, graph-based diffusion approaches suffer from hand-crafted architectural constraints, limited receptive fields in message passing, and costly multi-scale designs, which restrict scalability to larger and more complex domains. We propose Fluid-DiT, a Graph-Free Diffusion Transformer that replaces graph message passing with attention-based denoising, eliminating explicit graph design while preserving the ability to model distributions of chaotic flows. Our framework introduces a latent-space formulation that disentangles geometric fidelity from distributional learning, reducing high-frequency artifacts and accelerating sampling. By leveraging the transformer's global receptive field, Fluid-DiT naturally captures both local flow structures and long-range correlations without requiring hierarchical graph coarsening. On canonical benchmarks including laminar cylinder wakes, ellipse-flow systems, and turbulent 3D wing experiments, Fluid-DiT consistently outperforms graph-based diffusion baselines in both sample quality and distributional accuracy, achieving higher $R^2$ correlations and lower Wasserstein distances. Moreover, it generalizes robustly from short, incomplete trajectories to unseen Reynolds numbers and geometries, demonstrating strong scalability.
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Machine Learning

Edge Sparsification via Temporal Forman-Ricci Curvature for Dynamic Graph Learning

Temporal graph learning has become essential for analyzing real-world systems whose interactions continuously evolve over time, including financial transaction networks, communication systems, and online social platforms. However, learning from large-scale temporal graphs remains computationally challenging when networks are dense and rapidly changing. To address this limitation, we propose a network-curvature-inspired edge sparsification framework for dynamic graph learning. Our proposed method, TRicci, extends classical Forman-Ricci curvature to directed weighted temporal graphs by capturing structural support, temporal recency, and local interaction competition. Experiments on 9 transaction networks and 3 temporal graph benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework preserves predictive performance across multiple graph-level prediction tasks. The results show that TRicci sparsifies temporal graphs by approximately 80% while reducing end-to-end downstream training and inference time by an average of 55.94%, without substantial degradation in predictive performance. Our findings suggest that temporal curvature can serve as a principled basis for scalable temporal graph learning by preserving predictive temporal-structural information under substantial sparsification.
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Machine Learning

Capacity Confounds and Coverage Guarantees in Adaptive Sub-model Federated Learning

Sub-model federated learning allows clients with limited memory and compute to join training by optimising width-reduced slices of a shared global network. Established schemes such as HeteroFL and FjORD size these slices from device resources alone, and a growing line of adaptive methods proposes to also enlarge the slices of clients whose data deviate most from the population, inferring that deviation from the model updates the server already receives. This paper puts that design pattern to a controlled test. We construct HAS-FL, a representative heterogeneity-aware allocation framework that isolates this inference step, and evaluate it on CIFAR-10, EMNIST and the naturally partitioned Shakespeare corpus. We find that the inference step fails: divergence between local and global updates tracks the width of each client's sub-model, with a strong negative correlation in every image run, and carries little or no information about ground-truth label skew once width is held fixed. We also identify a separate failure of capped allocation: weights that no client trains remain at their random initial values yet still enter every forward pass, driving accuracy close to chance on the 62-class EMNIST task; guaranteeing that every parameter is trained by at least one client removes this failure. Finally, a random allocation with the same average budget matches the adaptive policy on the image tasks and surpasses it on text. The gains attributed to adaptive allocation therefore come from capacity budgeting and parameter coverage rather than heterogeneity estimation, and we recommend capacity-stratified validation and matched-budget random baselines as standard practice.
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Machine Learning

Machine Learning-Based Inter-Crystal Scatter Recovery for Ultra-High Resolution PET Imaging

Inter-crystal scatter (ICS) events pose a significant challenge in ultrahigh- resolution positron emission tomography (UHR-PET), especially as detector crystals become smaller and their readouts increasingly segmented. Current approaches either reject these events, reducing sensitivity, or accept them with suboptimal positioning algorithms, degrading image resolution. We present a feed forward neural network to optimize ICS event recovery by inferring the line-of-response belonging to the first Compton interaction. Our approach was validated using both Monte Carlo simulations and experimental data from the fully pixelated LabPET-IIbased preclinical and brain UHR-PET scanners.Results demonstrate a 70% to 106% increase in sensitivity while preserving sub-millimeter spatial resolvability (down to 1.6 mm) compared to conventional methods. This ICS recovery approach is an effective solution that compensates for the lower detection efficiency of small, pixelated detectors in UHR-PET, enabling reduced scan times and lower radiation doses while largely preserving image quality.
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Machine Learning

Interpretable reinforcement learning with decision-tree pruning

Reinforcement learning policies are difficult to inspect, but interpreting them is a prerequisite for trustworthiness. Converting a trained policy into explicit decision-tree rules improves transparency and the resulting artifacts often remain too complex for human understanding. We present a pruning process that simplifies such rule-based policies while preserving task performance and making edits to the policy auditable. The process defines a small set of structural and usage-aware operators and evaluates candidate edits by re-executing the policy to measure return and interpretability proxies. This exposes an transformation process from complex to compact policy structures. We investigate this approach on classic control and MuJoCo benchmarks, where pruning traces reveal consistent interpretability improvements while maintaining high performance.
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Machine Learning

Online Conformal Prediction Beyond Feedback

Online conformal prediction (OCP) provides theoretically principled uncertainty quantification for arbitrary black-box classifiers and non-i.i.d. data streams by constructing prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true label at a user-specified frequency. OCP usually updates prediction sets using feedback from previously deployed predictions. We instead study an OCP setting *beyond feedback*: on each round, the learner can *either* output a prediction set *or* query the correct label, but not both. Thus, no deployed prediction is ever evaluated directly. We reduce this problem to a partial monitoring game in which prediction actions return no observation and a separate query action reveals the label. To solve this game, we develop *OCP with queries* (OCPQ), a label-efficient forecasting algorithm designed for this beyond-feedback setting. Using an adequate reward construction, for any black-box classifier and any (non-i.i.d.) oblivious data stream of length $T$, OCPQ has $O(T^{2/3})$ expected regret and expected coverage of at least $\beta-O(T^{-1/3})$ for a user-defined $\beta$, while querying only an expected $T^{-1/3}$ fraction of rounds. This provides coverage comparable to bandit-based OCP methods while requiring no feedback from deployed predictions. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.
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All authors Joar Skalse, Edoardo Pona, Osvaldo Simeone, Nicola Paoletti

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Minimization Using Samples: Algorithms, Convergence Rates, and Applications

We consider the optimization of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk, with applications including portfolio optimization in finance, and uncertainty quantification, classification, and regression in machine learning. Our contributions cover popular special cases of OCE, such as entropic risk, mean-variance risk, and smooth variants of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Our treatment sets out the conditions that facilitate the extension of OCE to unbounded r.v.s.. We provide a useful characterization of OCE that links OCE to utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR). Our characterization enables us to form an OCE estimator from the classic sample-average approximation (SAA) of UBSR. We derive mean-squared error (MSE) bounds for our proposed OCE estimator. For OCE optimization, we first derive an expression for the OCE gradient using the characterization linking OCE to UBSR. This expression serves as the basis for a gradient estimator for the OCE. We derive non-asymptotic bounds on the MSE for the proposed OCE gradient estimator. We incorporate the aforementioned gradient estimator into a stochastic gradient (SG) algorithm to optimize OCE and quantify its convergence rate using non-asymptotic bounds that we derive. Finally, we present three experiments that use our OCE optimization algorithm to solve portfolio optimization and uncertainty quantification problems.
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Machine Learning

Modular TTT: Rethinking Test-Time Training as Composable Modules

Test-time training (TTT) views sequence modeling as an online learning problem in which fast weights are updated by an internal learning rule. Despite the growing number of TTT variants, existing approaches typically hard-code each variant separately, which makes it difficult to design new TTT methods and to isolate the role of each component. To address this, we propose Modular TTT, a framework that represents the inner learner as a directed acyclic graph and exposes the fast-weight network, loss function, learning rate, weight decay, and normalization as explicit design dimensions. Modular TTT automatically composes primitive-level train-view forward, train-view backward, and causal query-view rules into the full graph-level TTT computation, including the fast-weight state transition. Using Modular TTT, we systematically ablate the components of TTT and find that small learning-rate initialization, weight decay, and a single-layer nonlinearity improve performance, while MSE and inner-product losses perform similarly. Deeper fast-weight networks and normalization tend to hurt performance because they induce excessively large activations, while residual connections and gating provide little measurable benefit. Guided by these findings, we train the best resulting variant as 410M- and 1.45B-parameter models on 100B tokens, and observe training loss and benchmark performance comparable to Gated DeltaNet.
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All authors Bohao Tang, Zhen Qin, Yuqi Pan, Zheng Li, Pengfei Liu, Ya Zhang

Machine Learning

Synthetic LiDAR Data Generation and Deterministic Downsampling for Point Cloud Classification on the Edge

Deploying three-dimensional deep learning frameworks to low-power embedded processors is bottlenecked by the unstructured nature of spatial data and the resource-intensive distance sorting algorithms often used before neural network inference. To address this gap, this paper presents a hardware-constrained workflow optimized for native execution on the Raspberry Pi 5. To account for the reality gap between noiseless, clean computer-aided design (CAD) datasets and real-world sensor data, we use physics-based simulation to construct a synthetic LiDAR dataset. Cross-dataset evaluations demonstrate a substantial drop in classification accuracy when networks trained on clean CAD data are evaluated on synthetic LiDAR sensor data, highlighting the critical need for sensor-aware training. To address the latency bottleneck of traditional geometric preprocessing on edge CPUs, we integrate an isolated, feature-driven Critical Points Layer (CPL) as a frontend filter. Our results show that the pretrained CPL deterministically compresses raw 1024-point clouds to a subset of 40 to 60 unique coordinates. When profiled on the ARM Cortex-A76 processor, the complete pipeline achieves an inference throughput of approximately 50 FPS while maintaining an instance classification accuracy of 88.36%, demonstrating the viability of deterministic real-time 3D perception at the edge.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

International Transfer of Stochastic Cortical Self-Reconstruction

Stochastic cortical self-reconstruction (SCSR) enables personalized mapping of gray matter atrophy, a hallmark of neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), onto high-resolution cortical surfaces. Unlike conventional normative modeling approaches, which typically operate at a coarse regional level and remain inherently constrained by the covariates included during training, SCSR estimates an individualized healthy reference directly from the observed cortical thickness at the vertex level. This allows the detection of subtle, subject-specific deviations from healthy cortical shape. In this work, we investigate the generalization and transferability of SCSR, originally trained on UK Biobank (UKB) data, to an independent Chinese population dataset. Specifically, we evaluate the ability of SCSR-derived Z-scores to discriminate between healthy scans, individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and patients with AD, while also assessing model robustness across the lifespan. We compare four training strategies: direct application of the UKB-trained model, fine-tuning on Chinese data, training from scratch, and joint training on UKB and Chinese cohorts. As reconstruction backbones, we consider both a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a Spherical UNet (SUNet). Our results demonstrate that SCSR provides robust detection of cortical atrophy in the Chinese population across all evaluated models. The highest discriminative performance was achieved by the fine-tuned SUNet model (average pairwise AUC = 0.848), followed closely by the UKB-trained SUNet. Moreover, reconstruction errors remained low across the lifespan, even when the training population exhibited a substantially narrower age distribution, indicating strong cross-population transferability.
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All authors Fabian Bongratz, Zhizheng Zhuo, Chao Zhang, Yaou Liu, Dennis M. Hedderich, Christian Wachinger

Machine Learning

Beyond Isolation: Unlocking Reinforcement Learning Component Synergy for Sample-Efficient Continuous Control

Reinforcement learning systems are significantly more complex than other machine learning paradigms due to inherent properties, causing RL system design to jointly account for many tightly coupled factors. Despite advances in individual algorithmic components, their functional interdependencies remain underexplored: do they exhibit mutual synergy or counterproductive interference? To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic investigation and find that the efficacy of different components exhibits significant task-dependency, and naively stacking state-of-the-art techniques does not necessarily yield performance gains; instead, it often triggers emergent challenges, such as compounded non-stationarity. Building upon these findings, we distill a suite of actionable insights into the principled coordination of these components. Guided by these insights, we propose ROSER, an RL framework that coordinates three critical dimensions: Model-based Representation, Optimization Stability, and Experience Replay. Across diverse continuous-control benchmarks, ROSER consistently outperforms vanilla baselines and achieves 17.60% gains over naive stack. Our findings underscore the necessity of a holistic perspective in RL system design and paves the way for developing sample-efficient agents.
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All authors Qi Zhao, Guozheng Ma, Yilun Kong, Lu Li, Haoyu Wang, Zilin Wang, Tiantian Zhang, Yuxing Wang, Jian Sha, Yongzhe Chang, Xueqian Wang, Dacheng Tao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Transformers Struggle to Use Their Emergent World Models: Revisiting the Tower of Hanoi, and the Illusion of Thinking

The Tower of Hanoi is a simple planning puzzle that in prior work has proven challenging for large reasoning models (LRMs). Current models solve the standard formulation of the puzzle, but still struggle with the flat-to-flat variant (where initial and goal states are not restricted to have all rings on a single peg). This paper presents an in-depth study of how both small, in-house Transformers and large, third-party LRMs solve this task. To understand the failures mechanistically, we first train small Transformers from scratch on precomputed solution traces. Using a variety of interpretability techniques, we show that these Transformers develop an emergent world model: a linearly decodable, geometrically faithful representation of the puzzle's state space (the Sierpinski triangle), that is causally involved in solving the puzzles. Second, we return to the large LLMs and apply our techniques to two frontier reasoning models, Qwen3.6-27B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, that attempt to solve the task through extended chain-of-thought. Surprisingly, we find that both models encode the Sierpinski world model near-perfectly at the end of the prompt, and yet fail at the majority of tasks when there are more than 3 rings. We locate the source of this failure in the decaying representation of the world model. We probe for the representation at different stages during planning, and establish causality by showing that performance can be improved by injecting the prompt-time representation at inference. The failure of the models is thus one of maintenance of the required representations, not their absence, and performance is at least partially recoverable. These results thus reframe the reported collapse in performance from prior work: current Large Reasoning Models build a world model, and then lose it.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

AutoIntervene: Calibrated Intervention for Action-Chunking Imitation Learning Policies

Action-chunking visuomotor policies learn from demonstrations and improve temporal consistency by predicting short action sequences rather than single-step commands. Yet perception errors and execution drift can move the robot outside the demonstration distribution, while the policy continues to produce smooth action chunks that are inconsistent with the observed state. We present AutoIntervene, an online framework that selectively transfers control between an action-chunking policy and an operator during deployment. AutoIntervene evaluates proposed chunks against a visual-action support memory built from successful task executions, combining visual similarity with consistency between proposed and reference actions. Phase-local support governs policy-to-operator transfer within the current task phase, whereas global support governs the return to policy control after operator recovery. We calibrate separate switching thresholds for the two directions from empirical quantiles of evaluation-level scores on held-out expert demonstrations, avoiding direct manual tuning of score cutoffs. Intervention segments retained from successful rollouts target learner-induced states and provide corrective supervision for subsequent policy updates. Experiments on real-world bimanual manipulation tasks show higher post-adaptation task success and lower operator-control time than manual intervention. Videos and additional results are available at https://aus.bot/research/autointervene/.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MS

Tensor Network Kernel Machines: A JAX Framework for Machine Learning and Nonlinear System Identification

Developing nonlinear models that are both expressive and computationally efficient remains a challenge in machine learning and nonlinear system identification. Tensor network kernel machines (TNKM) address this challenge by combining nonlinear feature representations with compact low-rank tensor-network parameterizations. However, practical and extensible software frameworks for developing TNKM models remain limited. In this work, we introduce "tnkm", an open-source Python library for constructing and training TNKM models using JAX. The library provides a unified interface for combining different feature maps, tensor-network architectures, and optimization strategies, including alternating least squares and gradient-based methods. We demonstrate the capabilities of "tnkm" on nonlinear benchmark problems, showing that the implemented models achieve competitive prediction accuracy while retaining compact parameterizations and efficient training. The proposed framework facilitates reproducible development and application of tensor-network-based learning methods.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.PR

Limit Points of Reflow with Minibatch Optimal Transport

Rectified flows, also called flow matching or stochastic interpolants, are generative models that learn a time-dependent vector field steering a probability curve between two probability distributions, usually referred to as latent and target distributions. Reflow accelerates inference by iteratively straightening the trajectories induced by this vector field. We study the asymptotic behavior of this iteration and characterize its limit points. First, we define weak rectified couplings which always exist. Next, when rectified flow updates are alternated with minibatch optimal transport steps of fixed batch size, we show that any limit is $N$-cyclically monotone, where $N$ is the batch size. Such $N$-cyclically monotone couplings enjoy favorable structural and stability properties such as rectifiability and straightness. Finally, restricting velocities to gradient fields and assuming additional support conditions, we prove that reflow limits coincide with the optimal transport map between the endpoint distributions.
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Machine Learning

Accounting Graph Transformer for Short-History Multi-KPI Forecasting in Small Businesses

Small businesses often have only 12-24 months of accounting history, yet planning and risk workflows require coordinated forecasts across financial statements. We study joint 12-month forecasting of 13 income-statement, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and working-capital key performance indicators (KPIs) from 71 monthly ledger series. We introduce the Accounting Graph Transformer (AGT), which represents each ledger series as a masked token, exchanges information through typed attention on a fixed accounting-relation graph, pools target-specific context, and fuses it with a gated three-month recency path. Across 11,993 forecast origins from 1,060 unseen companies, AGT achieves sample-weighted KPI-macro mean absolute error (MAE) $0.6990 \pm 0.0013$ over three independent seeds, compared with $0.7378 \pm 0.0014$ for the strongest baseline, LightGBM. At the pre-specified seed 42, a paired company-clustered bootstrap gives a LightGBM-minus-AGT difference of 0.0395 with 95% confidence interval (CI) $[0.0350,0.0439]$. AGT is best on all 13 KPIs against LightGBM, TimeMixer, and SOFTS in the matched seed-42 comparison, while final-architecture ablations show that relational attention, accounting topology, and the recency path each improve validation and test accuracy. On 7,094 additional unseen companies with origins sampled from January-May 2025, AGT obtains 0.7548 MAE versus 0.7694 for SOFTS. A single 5.3M-parameter model produces 156 aligned forecasts without company-specific fitting, providing one forecasting layer for integrated planning, liquidity, and working-capital analysis.
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Machine Learning

Hyperbolic Graph Embedders for Link Prediction and Topology Reconstruction

Hyperbolic embeddings provide compact geometric representations of complex networks in hyperbolic spaces, but systematic comparisons of methods developed in machine learning, network science, and algorithmics remain rare. We benchmark 13 unsupervised hyperbolic graph embedders under a unified protocol for link prediction and topology reconstruction on synthetic and empirical networks. The protocol captures both missing-link recovery and the preservation of local and global network structure. Maximum-likelihood and representation-learning-based approaches, including hybrid variants, achieve the strongest overall performance, although no method dominates across all tasks and structural regimes. Performance is more strongly associated with embedding paradigm than with disciplinary origin. We identify the network regimes in which different paradigms succeed or fail and provide practical guidance for method selection in downstream applications.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV

IceHorizon: A Dataset for Horizon Detection in Ice-Covered Maritime Environments and Comparative Evaluation of Detection Methods

Horizon detection in images of ice-covered waters is a challenging problem for maritime navigation due to low contrast between water and sky, cluttered ice structures, and varying illumination conditions. This paper presents a comparative evaluation of six horizon detection algorithms, including four classical computer vision methods and two hybrid approaches combining deep learning with classical line detection. A new bespoke IceHorizon dataset consisting of 30 ship-based and 8 drone-based videos is used to evaluate detection accuracy, horizon coverage, and computational performance. The results show that hybrid methods achieve the highest accuracy and most reliable horizon estimates. In contrast, purely classical methods exhibit reduced robustness, particularly in visually ambiguous scenes. Performance on ship-based imagery was consistently higher than on drone-based imagery, indicating a strong dependency on acquisition characteristics. The created dataset and codes used in this study are made publicly available to support further research on this topic. The code is available at https://github.com/allythe/HorizonDetection. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20411867
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

FedLBW: A Loss-Based Weighting Strategy for Federated Learning on Non-IID Data in Wireless Networks

Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative machine learning (ML) across distributed clients while preserving privacy. However, efficient model convergence in FL remains challenging, especially in wireless networks where non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data and frequent client dropouts are common. Traditional FL algorithms, such as FedAvg, rely solely on dataset size to weight client updates. This introduces biases towards clients with larger datasets and makes the process sensitive to non-IID data, outliers, and client dropouts. To address these challenges, we propose Federated Learning with Loss-Based Weighting (FedLBW), a novel aggregation method that assigns each client's update a weight proportional to the inverse of its validation loss, computed using a small proxy dataset on the server, rather than its dataset size. This ensures that lower-loss models exert greater influence during aggregation, prioritizing the most reliable updates and boosting overall performance. Through extensive experiments across multiple datasets, including FashionMNIST (CNN), CIFAR-10 (ResNet-18), and CIFAR-100 (ResNet-34), we demonstrate that FedLBW achieves higher accuracy and faster convergence compared to baseline algorithms such as FedAvg, FedAvgM, FedProx, FedNova, FedLAW and FedDkw, with notable improvements of up to 7.6 % higher accuracy on CIFAR-10 in extreme non-IID cases. Moreover, FedLBW showcases exceptional resilience to increasing dropout probabilities, consistently maintaining significantly higher accuracy even in challenging conditions. These results establish FedLBW as an effective and resilient solution for FL in wireless network environments, offering marked improvements in model accuracy, convergence speed, and robustness to non-IID data and client dropouts.
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Machine Learning

Every Cache Entry Earns Its Place: Global Allocation of Resolution and Coverage for KV Cache Compression

As large language models (LLMs) process increasingly long contexts, KV cache storage and repeated access have become a major bottleneck. Existing KV cache compression methods rely on predefined, fixed compression rules and are typically developed around either token eviction or merging. As a result, cache resources can neither flow freely across layers, heads, and context slots, nor be jointly allocated to balance local resolution and information coverage. Therefore, we propose GraceKV, a global approach for the allocation of resolution and coverage in KV cache compression, and formulate the compression process as a global resource allocation problem under a fixed cache budget. GraceKV treats each layer-KV-head-slot combination as an atomic unit and builds a prototype tree. Leaf nodes correspond to token-level KV entries, while each internal node uses a single prototype to compress the KV space covered by its children. A set of non-overlapping nodes in the tree forms the representation of an atomic unit. Adding the root of a new tree expands information coverage, whereas splitting a selected node improves local resolution. All candidate actions compete globally for a shared cache budget. Finally, the nodes retained across all trees form the compressed KV cache. This process adaptively determines the allocation of cache resources among atomic units globally and the balance between resolution and coverage. GraceKV requires no additional training, and the entire compression and inference process is performed on the GPU. Systematic experiments across diverse long-context tasks and compression ratios show that GraceKV ranks first in 25 of 32 settings and remains robust up to 128-fold compression. These results validate the effectiveness of global budget allocation in coordinating information coverage and local resolution.
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Machine Learning

Beyond Foundation Models: Dimension-Aware Neural Architecture Search with Small-Data Representation Models for Cryocooler Lifetime Prediction

Large-scale pretrained time-series models achieve strong results through large-scale pretraining and task-agnostic representation learning, but they rely on abundant, diverse data that industrial and scientific domains often lack. We therefore propose the FSD-RM (Family of Small-Data Representation Models) paradigm as a practical alternative for limited, domain-specific telemetry. Rather than relying on large-scale pretraining, we focus on capacity-controlled representation learning using established encoder architectures (CNN1D, LSTM, GRU, Transformer), selected for their suitability in small-data settings and interpretability. These encoders are trained unsupervised on multivariate telemetry data and integrated into a two-stage pipeline for downstream lifetime prediction. To systematically examine architectural trade-offs under data constraints, we employ dimension-aware neural architecture search (NAS) to jointly optimize model capacity and input dimensionality. Experiments on cryocooler telemetry show that the proposed approach achieves competitive predictive performance while reducing training cost and model complexity. The contribution lies in combining established representation learning techniques within a coherent, NAS-driven framework tailored to small-data regimes, with explicitly defined parameter settings and design choices. The results indicate that effective representation learning can be achieved without large-scale pretraining when appropriate inductive bias and capacity control are applied.
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All authors Gregor Molan, Grafika Jati, Francesco Barchi, Andrea Acquaviva, Aljaž Osterman, Martin Molan

Machine Learning

Density-aware Hierarchical Clustering Based on Element-Categorized Connection Subgraphs

Clustering is a fundamental data mining technique for pattern recognition through unsupervised learning. Among various clustering methods, hierarchical clustering, density-based clustering, and graph clustering stand out as representative approaches. For hierarchical clustering, it can be categorized into agglomerative and divisive modes to construct clusters in a recursive manner. The key aspect of both modes is the calculation of inter-cluster similarity, which determines whether to merge the sub-clusters into one cluster or divide a current cluster into sub-clusters. Traditionally, the similarity is derived from pairwise distances, often overlooking density variations and structural connectivity in graphs. To address this, we propose a density-aware hierarchical clustering method based on element-categorized connection subgraphs (DHC-ECS), which effectively integrates the hierarchical clustering, density-based clustering, and graph clustering. Particularly, a novel inter-cluster similarity metric is introduced that considers not only distances but also the element categorization in the KNN connection subgraphs, kernel density estimation, and local connectivity within sub-clusters. Extensive evaluations on heterogeneous benchmark datasets demonstrate that DHC-ECS exhibits superior overall performance in terms of clustering accuracy and parameter robustness compared with the baseline methods (including AChameleon, RNN-DBSCAN, McDPC, and G-RMS). The work indicates the great potential of the proposed clustering algorithm for low-dimensional datasets by leveraging local density and graph-structured connectivity (i.e., the duality of vertices and edges), as well as the possibility to determine an intrinsic threshold, reducing the reliance on manual parameter tuning.
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All authors Yuning Yu, José Rodríguez-Piñeiro, Xuefeng Yin, Bin Feng

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Mixture of Geodesic Factor Analyzers on Riemannian Homogeneous Spaces

This paper introduces Mixtures of Geodesic Factor Analyzers (MGFA) on Riemannian homogeneous spaces. MGFA uses a geodesic factor model within each mixture component, providing greater expressiveness than mixtures of Riemannian radial distributions and enabling clustering of manifold-valued data with anisotropic subpopulations. We establish root-$n$ consistency for the MGFA maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), thereby filling a theoretical gap for mixtures of Riemannian radial distributions as a special case. We also propose an iterative estimation algorithm and implement it on spheres, shape spaces, and hyperbolic spaces. Numerical experiments show that MGFA substantially outperforms competing methods in well-specified regimes while remaining robust under model misspecification. Finally, case studies on corpus callosum and left hippocampus shape datasets demonstrate MGFA's effectiveness for both 2D contour and 3D shape analysis.
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All authors Hengchao Chen, Yuanyao Tan, Chao Huang, Hongtu Zhu, Qiang Sun

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

CAi Copilot: Reducing Operational Workload in Molecular Design through Intent-Driven Agentic Workflows

Early-stage molecular design is an iterative process, not just a task of generating molecules. Researchers turn broad goals into design strategies, refine candidates, assess many properties, and gather evidence before synthesis and tests. AI methods can generate molecules, optimize several goals, predict properties, dock compounds, and account for synthesis. Yet these functions are spread across specialized tools. Experts must still coordinate each step, judge interim results, and integrate evidence. The central challenge is thus to turn research intent into adaptive, traceable runs grounded in scientific tools. We cast this challenge as intent-to-evidence molecular design workflow execution and present CAi Copilot, an expert-oriented agent with three linked layers. The Research Interface Layer turns intent into an executable plan. The Agent Reasoning Layer uses interim results to guide each run. The Execution Substrate supplies molecular tools, metrics, reusable utilities, and backend services. Across 45 tasks, CAi achieves the strongest overall performance, with an outcome score of 84.59, exceeding the next-best result by 18.07 points. Additional benchmarks test how CAi coordinates generation, screening, and multi-criteria evaluation, while exposing limits in long-horizon execution. These results show that CAi turns broad molecular-design intent into transparent, traceable workflows that connect interim decisions to candidate-level evidence.
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All authors Zhu Wang, Jiangyu Chen, Yingjun Shang, Yuhui Yao, Laiao Lu, Tianfan Fu, Na Zou