Papers

Density modes provide a localized and interpretable summary of multimodal distributions, but their estimation under rigorous differential privacy constraints remains largely unexplored. We study differentially private recovery of density modes for multivariate distributions under local smoothness, curvature, and separation conditions. We propose DP-GRAMS, a mean-shift inspired method that performs noisy ascent on a differentially private score estimator. Assuming the density belongs locally to a Hölder class with smoothness parameter $\beta > 2$, our score estimator uses bias-reducing higher-order kernels, and then enforces privacy in the gradient ascent steps via gradient clipping and calibrated Gaussian noise. A private initialization scheme combines a density-aware utility with a suppression rule and, with $k\asymp M\log n$ draws over a public $h_{\mathrm{DAP}}$-grid and suppression radius $\rho_{\mathrm{init}}\asymp (\log n)^{-1/d}$, achieves high-probability coverage of the modal basins by successively suppressing selected local neighborhoods in competitive regions, while correlated noise across multiple starts enables joint release under a single $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-differential privacy guarantee. We prove that all population modes are recovered with high probability and establish asymptotic error rates of the form $O\!\left((\tfrac{\log n}{n})^{\frac{2(\beta-1)}{d+2\beta}}\right) + O\!\left((\tfrac{\mathrm{polylog}(n,\delta)}{n^2\varepsilon^2})^{\frac{\beta-1}{d+\beta}}\right)$. We also provide minimax lower bounds for private mode estimation, and show that our estimators are nearly optimal, up to a logarithmic factor in the MSE. We present two natural extensions: DP-PMS, a private modal-regression method, and DP-GRAMS-C, a clustering pipeline. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate favorable privacy-utility trade-offs relative to common baselines.

SignMuon compresses the Muon update to one bit per parameter by taking its elementwise sign, providing the most direct way to run a matrix-aware optimizer under an extremely low communication budget. It outperforms SignSGD in practice, yet it can ascend even on a linear function. Signing the gradient before the Linear Minimization Oracle (LMO), rather than after, does not repair this: we construct a small explicit instance on which sign-before (MuonUSign) and sign-on-both-sides (MuonSign) ascend as well, so no placement of the sign around the oracle descends in general. Error feedback, the standard remedy for a biased compressor, does not rescue SignMuon: when applied to Muon's output, error feedback can fail for every smoothness constant, step size, and momentum. Applied to the gradient, error feedback does work, and EF21-MuonUSign and EF21-MuonSign attain the standard $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ rate for the squared gradient norm on smooth nonconvex problems, the latter at one bit in each direction. Experiments then reverse the ordering: across centralized CIFAR-10, federated CIFAR-10, and the nanoGPT speedrun, the strongest compressed method is consistently sign-after-the-LMO, precisely the placement we prove divergent, with the provably convergent variants trailing it. Compressing after the LMO, a heuristic, matters more at these scales than the guarantee does.

PDE discovery from sparse observations requires reconstructing a continuous field and selecting the correct differential terms. Our analysis of optimization paths in coupled neural PDE discovery reveals three behaviors: the exact support can persist to the end of training, appear only transiently, or fail to emerge. To decouple equation selection from neural optimization, we develop a freeze-then-select method combining a structured field adapter with Stability-Validated Weak Selection (SVWS). Trained from observations without a PDE residual, the adapter factorizes the field into learned spatial features and temporal coefficients represented by cubic splines. After freezing the field, SVWS identifies recurrent terms across independent weak-form systems, refits candidate supports, and selects the final equation on held-out weak-form systems. Beyond fixed libraries, we apply the same principle to expressions generated by genetic programming and recover the power-law form of an unknown nonlinear diffusion function from sparse, noisy observations. Across all six sparse MDBench regimes, our method attains the highest exact support recovery rate, with its clearest gains over classical and neural baselines on challenging Kuramoto-Sivashinsky dynamics.

Deploying state-of-the-art deep neural networks (DNNs) at the wireless edge is severely bottlenecked by the strict energy and resource constraints of mobile devices. Although federated split learning (FSL) alleviates on-device computational burdens by offloading workloads to an edge server, this may introduce systemic overheads, while the continuous exchange of intermediate activations, gradients, and submodels still incurs significant energy consumption (EC). To address this, we propose a green quantized FSL (GQ-FSL) framework that incorporates stochastic quantization for both local collaborative training and wireless transmissions. Notably, GQ-FSL supports asymmetric precision levels for the client- and server-side submodels, effectively decoupling device energy constraints from global convergence degradation. To quantify these tradeoffs, we develop parameterized energy models for the split architecture and derive a theoretical convergence bound under statistically heterogeneous data. Building on that, we formulate a joint optimization problem to configure the DNN split point and precision levels, minimizing the total system EC while satisfying strict latency and target accuracy constraints. Ultimately, we demonstrate that GQ-FSL enables large-scale DNN deployment on resource-constrained devices, achieving superior energy efficiency compared to quantized federated learning and full-precision FSL.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are widely used for time-series classification, but their deployment in critical domains requires understanding the temporal and spectral patterns that drive their predictions. Concept extraction (CE) methods identify such patterns by analyzing representations within the models' latent space. However, existing time-series CE methods have three limitations: they operate only in the time domain and overlook frequency features, predefine the number of concepts, and produce localizations misaligned with the regions the model uses. We address these limitations by proposing CENDRe, a concept extraction method for CNNs. It first discovers concepts by clustering per-timestep latent representations in two stages, where silhouette-guided aggregation selects the number of concepts automatically. Then, it localizes each concept through gradients of a presence score that contrasts the latent representations with their prototypes, producing masks that concentrate on the regions driving the concept. These gradients, propagated through a differentiable invertible mapping of the input such as a Fourier transform, yield localizations for the same concepts in the frequency domain. Finally, each concept receives a relevance score that quantifies its contribution to each class. On synthetic benchmarks, CENDRe achieves representation correctness comparable to state-of-the-art CE methods and significantly higher importance correctness. On real bearing-fault data, CENDRe extracts the frequency bands driving the model's predictions, located in regions commonly inspected for fault diagnosis, producing evidence to assess the model that time-domain CE methods cannot.

Imitation learning (IL)—training an agent to replicate expert behavior from demonstrations—underpins applications from robotics to language model training. Standard approaches such as Behavior Cloning (BC) are known to suffer from compounding errors and performance plateaus, particularly when the learner cannot perfectly represent the expert's policy (as is typical, e.g., in distillation). Two interventions are widely understood empirically to improve performance: querying the expert interactively along the learner's own trajectories, and using value function estimation en route to generating a policy rather than directly fitting the expert's full action distribution. We investigate the nature of these improvements and their potentially surprising interplay. Our main finding is that expert interaction relaxes the representational demands on the learner: one only needs a model capable of realizing the expert's value function, bypassing the (often stricter) requirement of realizing the expert's policy itself. Concretely, we introduce OVI, an interactive on-policy IL algorithm that is statistically efficient whenever the learner can represent the expert's value function and computationally efficient given access to a linear maximization oracle. We complement this with a negative result showing that interaction is necessary. Namely, without stronger assumptions beyond expert-value realizability alone, any offline IL algorithm must scale with the complexity of the expert policy class. Our findings bear out empirically. OVI outperforms offline policy-based (BC), interactive policy-based (DAgger), and offline value-based IL methods, with the largest gains when the learner network is substantially less expressive than the expert's.

The rapid adoption of deep learning models in high-risk domains has intensified the need for trustworthy Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). However, objectively evaluating explanation fidelity and aligning XAI metrics with human-centered understanding remain critical open challenges. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic metric, the EPC score, which is an extension of the Explainability-Performance Coefficient (EPC), that quantifies explanation quality by explicitly balancing the trade-off between feature selection sparsity and preserved model performance. Through an empirical validation across tabular, text, and image modalities, we show that the EPC score effectively uncovers operational dependencies among network activations, data dimensionality, and explainer performance. Furthermore, we validate the EPC score against independent human-based explanations, proving that higher EPC scores strongly align with human lexical sentiment judgments and spatial visual annotations.

A fundamental challenge of vector search is achieving consistently high recall while minimizing computational costs. Fixed search parameters cause significant performance variance across queries, and conventional evaluation on average recall masks these per-query disparities. We introduce QASP (Query-Adaptive robust vector Search Policy), which predicts the complete recall progression curve per query via a single upfront supervised regression, from which a search policy is derived for any recall target; this avoids iterative model invocations during search or separate predictors per target. By predicting normalized recall values with scale-invariant features and pre-search inference, QASP generalizes across recall targets, index configurations, and datasets. The fine-grained progress predictions further enable a lightweight reactive complement that adjusts search depth based on predicted-versus-observed deviations without additional inference. We prove that QASP requires a finite training sample independent of dataset size and dimensionality, that it matches or improves on the best fixed-policy loss up to a vanishing statistical error, and that its data access savings over fixed probing grow exponentially in intrinsic dimensionality. Experimentally, QASP achieves significantly lower recall variance and deviation from target, higher query satisfaction rate, and scales to large data and hierarchical indices without retraining, achieving 99% recall with 80% less data access. Our implementation can be found at https://github.com/amazon-science/QASP.

Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) commonly adapts large language models using a single shared Low-Rank Adapter (LoRA). This shared optimization space often suffers from interference when adapting heterogeneous task sequences, leading to poor transfer and catastrophic forgetting. Existing approaches mainly improve adapter expressiveness by increasing parameter capacity or composing multiple adapters, yet they still rely on a shared optimization path. In this paper, we propose an optimization-path organization framework for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large language models, implemented as an automatic multi-policy PEFT architecture. Specifically, optimization-compatible adaptation paths are automatically organized through task grouping and task sequencing under a fixed parameter budget. The organized optimization paths are implemented as independent Quantized Low-Rank Adapters (QLoRA), enabling heterogeneous tasks to be optimized in decoupled adaptation spaces while preserving positive transfer among compatible tasks. Experiments on the TRACE benchmark demonstrate that performance consistently improves from conventional single-policy PEFT to multi-policy PEFT, with the proposed automatic multi-policy framework achieving the best performance of 44.78 under the same trainable capacity. This suggests that optimization-path organization is more effective than simply increasing adapter capacity for heterogeneous parameter-efficient fine-tuning.

This paper studies the policy gradient update for a multi-arm bandit problem in diffusion environment that is described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) under the continuous-time reinforcement learning framework by Wang et al. (2020), Jia and Zhou (2022b). With the logit parameterization for the stochastic policy, we show that it converges almost surely to the optimal arm under an arbitrary constant learning rate. Furthermore, we derive the non-asymptotic regret upper bound when the constant learning rate is below a time-invariant threshold; and the regret bound has order $O(\log T)$. We improve the analysis in Lattimore (2026a) for the same SDE by constructing a novel Lyapunov function and demonstrate the transparency of analyzing policy gradient using the tools in SDEs. In addition, the same Lyapunov function is also helpful in analyzing the discrete-time policy gradient algorithm.

The primary challenge of continual learning (CL) systems is to learn new tasks while remaining performant on previously learned tasks. A similarly important though less well-studied aspect of CL systems is their ability to distinguish inputs that are unlikely to come from within the set of tasks the system has already encountered, often called out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. This paper presents several findings related to the dynamics of OOD detection in CL systems, causes of performance degradation over time which we call OOD forgetting (OODF), and proposed mitigation strategies for this degradation. Chiefly, we find the unintuitive result that OODF is only weakly anti-correlated with classification performance on previous tasks, suggesting that the underlying mechanisms producing OODF are distinct. Moreover, this effect is observed for both energy-based and feature-based OOD detection methods. Energy-based detectors suffer a drop in logit scale as additional tasks are learned, which we term the Confidence Gap, while feature-based detectors also degrade under a complementary effect we call Manifold Crowding. Motivated by these observations, we propose TOOD, a training-free post-hoc method that decomposes logits into per-task energy scores and re-calibrates them using replay-buffer statistics. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and a 100-task ImageNet-1K stream show that TOOD improves OOD detection performance over uncalibrated energy in most settings and ranks first or second in nine of ten CIFAR configurations, with the largest gains when the confidence gap is most severe. These results suggest that a substantial portion of OOD deterioration in continual learning arises from score miscalibration rather than from a complete loss of discriminative structure.

Games and simulators make valuable benchmarks by turning decisions into measurable outcomes, but many current suites under-test rules-rich tactical reasoning: the ability to choose well when geometry, timing, resources, objectives, and rule interactions all matter at once. We introduce DungeonBench, a benchmark for tactical reasoning in Dungeons & Dragons combat, built to cover the vast majority of combat-relevant 2014 System Reference Document content whose effects can be resolved by the simulator while retaining mechanics that simplified combat simulators often abstract away. At each step, DungeonBench exposes a complete tactical observation, a pending decision, and an indexed list of executable options spanning movement, attacks, spells, reactions, objectives, preparation, and scarce resources. The task is to value legal choices whose consequences depend on action economy, creature traits, battlefield geometry, timing windows, and future encounters. DungeonBench has two tracks: Encounter, which evaluates local tactical play in single fights, and Day, which links encounters through persistent hit points, spell slots, consumables, preparation, and short-rest timing, forcing policies to trade off immediate tactical advantage against future survivability. The same engine-generated decision stream supports heuristic controllers, language-model policies, learned option rankers, and masked-action reinforcement-learning agents. We evaluate frontier language-model policies on this shared decision stream. Results show that full tactical observations do not saturate the benchmark: frontier policies often win direct encounters, but linked encounter days expose failures in resource budgeting, rest timing, and rule-aware tactical discipline.

Symbolic Regression (SR) aims to discover analytical equations from observational data and plays a central role in scientific modeling. While recent Large Language Model (LLM) based approaches show promise, they face two limitations. First, they lack data analysis mechanisms for uncovering variable dependencies, which reduces the efficiency of equation discovery. Second, most methods rely on single-objective evaluation focused solely on fitting error. This neglect of structural complexity and generalization often causes models to converge prematurely to local optima, limiting their ability to explore the broader equation space. We propose Multi-Objective Tool-augmented Symbolic Regression (MOT-SR), a unified framework that integrates external analytical tools to extract structural priors and guide equation generation, while jointly optimizing for accuracy, complexity, and generalization via a multi-objective evaluation module that maintains a dynamic Pareto front. MOT-SR employs two collaborative LLM modules: a Meta Strategy Generator, which selects tools and synthesizes structural optimization strategies based on Pareto-optimal equations, and an Equation Generator, which produces new candidate equations accordingly. The system operates in a closed-loop manner, continuously refining both strategies and equation structures. Across 40 standard tasks, MOT-SR outperforms existing SR methods in accuracy, generalization, and efficiency. We further validate MOT-SR on extreme mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) orbital modeling, an important problem in space-based gravitational-wave astronomy where small local errors can accumulate substantially over long-term evolution. The discovered interpretable correction achieves the lowest trajectory-level integration error on held-out configurations. These results demonstrate the potential of MOT-SR to enable reliable modeling of long-horizon scientific dynamics.

Lacoste-Julien and Jaggi conjectured in 2015 that the pyramidal width of a polytope cannot increase when a vertex is added, provided that every old point remains a vertex. We give an exact counterexample with six integer points in $\R^3$. For \[ P=\conv\{v_0,\ldots,v_4\},\qquad Q=\conv\{v_0,\ldots,v_5\}, \] where \[ \begin{aligned} v_0&=(-1,-3,-1), & v_1&=(3,2,-2), & v_2&=(0,2,1),\\ v_3&=(-1,-3,3), & v_4&=(-2,0,1), & v_5&=(-1,0,-2), \end{aligned} \] all five vertices of $P$ remain vertices of $Q$, but \[ \PWidth(P)^2=\frac{48}{353} \quad\text{and}\quad \PWidth(Q)^2=\frac{36}{133}. \] Thus vertex insertion increases pyramidal width by the factor $\sqrt{1059/532}\approx 1.410886779$. The proof uses the equivalence between pyramidal width and facial distance, certifies both face lattices by integer supporting hyperplanes, and evaluates every facial distance by a finite rational calculation. A dependency-free exact verifier accompanies the paper.

Identifying reliable Alzheimer's disease (AD) markers typically requires manual, labor-intensive transcription and expert analysis, limiting its scale. We introduce an automated pipeline that extracts qualitative knowledge about potential AD progression indicators directly from audio recordings of verbal fluency tests. Our method uses pretrained foundation models to process raw audio and extract clinically relevant variables to construct a Bayesian Network (BN); this BN is used to reason about the AD progression markers and infer their qualitative relationships. Our system successfully recovers known clinical knowledge and identifies novel relationships between linguistic markers.

A defining problem of the Anthropocene is to model the physical Earth and human societies as one coupled system, yet no learned representation spans their observational breadth. We argue the obstacle is geometric: the physical Earth is measured as continuous fields that ignore political borders, whereas societies are reported for administrative units. Earth-system foundation models serve the first geometry; coupling it to the second has required lossy averaging over borders. We introduce TerraNova, a foundation model trained on 1,024 physical and societal records in their native geometries: 512 gridded Earth-system fields and 512 national indicators. Dedicated encoders represent location, country, time and task, cross-modal transformers fuse them into a shared spatiotemporal state, and a hypernetwork generates a per-query decoder whose evidential head returns a predictive distribution. Two contrastive objectives couple the representation: a population-weighted alignment between each country and coordinates in its territory, and one to pretrained geospatial embeddings carrying image-derived semantics. Read out through that decoder, the representation is competitive with purpose-built geospatial encoders while spanning axes they do not represent (time, oceans and uncertainty) and supporting country-level capabilities. The frozen backbone reconstructs dense fields from sparse observations and adapts to unseen variables in minutes on consumer hardware.

High-entropy perovskite oxides (HEPOs) represent a chemically complex class of materials with promising functional properties, yet their vast compositional space and, chemical/structural disorder pose significant challenge for accurate property prediction. Graph neural networks (GNNs) enable rapid exploration of materials space but are often limited by the availability of representative training data. Here, we investigate ordered-to-disordered transfer learning using GNNs for formation-energy and HOMO-LUMO gap prediction in HEPOs by transferring knowledge learned from chemically ordered perovskites. Four representative GNN models, including CGCNN, GATGNN, ALIGNN and M3GNet are evaluated to understand the role of structural representations, spanning pairwise two-body and angular three-body interactions in transfer performance. We find strong property-dependent transfer behavior: formation-energy prediction transfers effectively to disordered HEPOs, whereas HOMO-LUMO gap prediction shows limited transferability due to its sensitivity to local chemical environments. Incorporating a small HEPO-specific training dataset substantially improves HOMO-LUMO gap prediction. Representation-level analysis using UMAP further highlights the importance of encoding three-body geometric information such as in ALIGNN for capturing complex structure-property relationships and improving transferability.

Effective multi-organ segmentation in surgical data requires learning the intricate anatomical features and alleviating the challenge of class imbalance, which results from relatively lower proportions of small and limitedly exposed structures. Recent works on laparoscopic multi-organ segmentation focus on learning structure-specific features through class-specific decoder architectures and report favorable results. This work extends the decoder-focused architectures to investigate knowledge sharing in the cross-surgical domain. We utilize two datasets representing different surgical domains, rectal and cholecystectomy surgeries, to explore how surgical conceptual knowledge transfers under partially common anatomical representations. Additionally, we compare the feature adaptation for the encoder and decoder at different training stages to analyse the knowledge adaptation and retention in the network. Our results corroborate previous findings on decoder-specific architectures and demonstrate that the organ-specific decoder model (CEMD), fully fine-tuned after cross-domain pre-training, achieves the highest segmentation performance (62.4% dice) while converging substantially faster than training from scratch. However, we also find that class imbalance in surgical data remains a persistent challenge that transfer learning does not fully resolve for underrepresented anatomical structures.

While neural networks are typically evaluated by their training and test performance, these metrics do not reveal how robust a learned representation is. Recent studies have shown that solutions occupying larger volumes in parameter space, as quantified by Boltzmann entropy, often exhibit superior generalizability compared to those reached by conventional optimization, a phenomenon known as the high entropy advantage. Here we ask whether this advantage persists beyond generalization. Specifically, we investigate models' robustness, the ability to retain the learned knowledge when the model is subsequently trained to acquire new information. Using grokking in modular arithmetic as a controlled setting, we design a noise injection experiment to evaluate the robustness difference between AdamW-trained transformers and high-entropy model sampled from Wang-Landau Molecular Dynamics with identical saturated performance. By forcing both models to fully remember new data with random labels, we find that AdamW-trained models suffer from catastrophic forgetting, with original task test accuracy dropping from 100% to below 75%, whereas the high-entropy models maintain approximately 95% test accuracy. We term this hidden fragility behind apparent generalization the "grokked illusion." Through singular value decomposition of the neural network weights, we discover that high-entropy neural networks possess significantly higher effective rank in attention and MLP layers both before and after noise injection, indicating richer feature representations can serve as a buffer against catastrophic forgetting. Our findings demonstrate that perfect generalization does not imply equal robustness, offering a new perspective on what makes a trained model robust to interference.

We study transcript management for fixed, finite-precision causal Transformers. A transcript is partitioned into channels of bounded blocks. Each transition consults a fixed visible suffix and may append one block, leaving the model, weights, and token protocol unchanged. The operation $P_c:=\PopContext(c)$ deletes the newest block on channel $c$ and exposes its predecessor. We model the layer by the Transcript-Managed Transducer $\TMTn{k}$: one finite controller, $k$ channels, and per-round actions from stay, push, and pop under a caller-driven status map. Fixed visible windows encode as finite symbols. The pop-free Restricted Transcript-Managed Transducer $\RTMTn{k}$ is the standard append-only layer and, for every fixed $k$, realizes exactly the deterministic finite-state transductions. The same holds for every fixed finite agent population under a monotone protocol that appends, routes, and copies visible blocks. Admitting $\{P_c\}_{c=1}^k$ restores pop. Newest-first, a pop-enabled channel is a stack; compiling to the Hopcroft–Ullman presentation transfers the classical hierarchy: $\DCFL$ for $k=1$ and $\RE$ for every $k\ge2$. Orchestrated one-channel agents match one controller with $k$ channels, so two pop-enabled transcripts—in one agent or two—suffice for universality. Simulation costs and invariance to fixed block size and visible radius are stated. The bounds fix precision, alphabets, blocks, visibility, controller state, and population; growing exact context, hidden-block access, writable stores, and unbounded Spawn add further state.

On-policy distillation (OPD) provides dense teacher supervision along student-generated trajectories, but its online rollout process incurs substantial computational cost, particularly when a few long responses delay batch completion. Existing acceleration methods typically control rollout length using fixed budgets or absolute teacher–student agreement thresholds, which may not reflect learning progress across different models and training stages. We propose Adaptive FastOPD, a progress-aware strategy that expands the rollout horizon only when learning near the current boundary region has plateaued and the current horizon is sufficiently utilized. The former is determined from four teacher–student signals measured relative to their values upon entering each horizon, making expansion responsive to stage-specific progress rather than a predefined step interval or an absolute threshold on the raw agreement signals, while the latter prevents a small number of long responses from triggering increases in rollout cost. Across two teacher–student pairs, Adaptive FastOPD achieves the highest average performance while reducing training time by 49.1–71.2% relative to OPD 15K, and remains robust across a range of hyperparameter settings.

Reinforcement-learning-based quantum architecture search (RL-QAS) repeatedly invokes a variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) after each gate addition even though circuit transitions and action legality are known. DreamQAS preserves these exact dynamics and learns only expensive post-VQE feedback through a recurrent ensemble that predicts a frontier-relative feedback score without requiring the exact ground-state energy, enabling uncertainty-controlled multi-step imagination. Under a common 15,000-episode budget and frozen evaluation, DreamQAS has the lowest reported mean error among RL methods on all five main molecular tasks. At fine-error targets reached by all seeds of DreamQAS and a matched non-imaginative control, it uses 1.6-2.0 times fewer real VQE calls on four tasks. Holding LiH-4q feedback-model weights fixed, its imagined-policy actor attains 0.073 mHa, versus 4.280 mHa and 4.434 mHa for greedy and beam deployment. Learned-transition and end-to-end predictor controls further show that preserving exact circuit structure and using feedback through policy learning are both important. Counterfactual action-ranking improves throughout training on all five probed tasks, while ensemble disagreement improves risk-coverage over random rejection on three tasks. DreamQAS therefore learns decision-useful feedback for QAS without modeling already-known circuit dynamics or requiring the exact ground-state energy.

Interventional data is widely regarded as the gold standard for teaching models causal reasoning. We test this assumption in a fully controlled synthetic environment pitting observational correlation against causal effect, and find it fails instructively. In Simpson's-paradox worlds, where the two have systematically opposite signs, increasing the fraction of interventional samples in pretraining does not improve causal direction: the magnitude of the model's do()-response grows monotonically, yet its sign is copied from the observational context. What governs whether interventional evidence is used is not the training mixture but the evidence type present in the context at inference time. Under an identical training recipe, a purely observational context induces systematic sign reversal in 29/50 worlds, a mixed context in 19/50, while aligned interventional probes alone yield 41/50 correct. Erasing observational evidence from the context immediately releases the suppressed causal interpolation ability (ratio_true = +0.56); a four-state content manipulation shows the switch is content-mediated and graded. The suppression is stable across training seeds (11/11 strong reversals persist on a matched-protocol second seed) and robust as a rate at 0.93B parameters (31.8% vs. 6% reversals in the matched probe-only arm), even as absolute gains shrink four-fold. An external audit on CLadder exposes a learned positive-effect prior with a two-layer structure: sign-randomized retraining removes it in-distribution but not out-of-distribution. We summarize: the capability lives in the weights; the switch lives in the context, and activation patching localizes the switch to the middle layers' observational rows. We further quantify the sampling noise floor of probe-based causal evaluation and an evidence-averaging protocol that cuts sign errors from 26% to 9%.

Text-to-molecule generation is typically formulated as a one-shot sequence generation problem, where a model directly maps target descriptions to molecular representations. However, molecular descriptions often contain informative structural constraints, and violating such constraints can change the molecular identity. This makes chemical verification and error correction important but underexplored. To fill this gap, we propose MolGVR, a chemistry-grounded Generator–Verifier–Refiner framework. The Generator infers structural evidence and generates candidate molecules. The Verifier addresses the lack of chemical validation by converting descriptions into chemical constraints and checking candidates against them. The Refiner addresses generation failures by revising candidates rejected by the Verifier. Experiments on ChEBI-20 and PCDes show that MolGVR improves exact-match performance. These results suggest that coupling generation with executable verification and feedback-guided refinement is an effective way to improve text-to-molecule generation.

The deployment of deep neural networks for visual affordance segmentation on wearable robots poses may prove critical, due to some conflicting aspects of the problem. On one hand, affordance segmentation requires high-level abstraction capabilities, that typically involve large-size models. On the other hand, computing resources hosted on wearable robots prevent to run large-size models in real-time. The paper presents an analysis of the role of the segmentation head in the trade-off between generalization performance and compute cost. The obtained models outperform modern baseline solutions in well-known, real-world datasets while meeting low computing requirements.

Adapting deep learning models to profound clinical heterogeneity typically relies on parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) to avoid the severe overfitting associated with full end-to-end network updates. Although PEFT successfully navigates limited data scenarios, it inherently forces the training of a separate, isolated adapter for every specific diagnostic task. Consolidating these isolated adapters into a single generalist network risks negative transfer, as optimization gradients from conflicting visual domains interfere. To address this, we propose MoPET, a mixture-of-experts (MoE) method that uses a learned sparse router to direct each input through a small subset of low-rank PEFT experts injected into a frozen foundation model, sharing capacity across datasets while limiting cross-domain gradient conflict. Through selected evaluations on the MedMNIST benchmark, we first establish that PEFT outperforms full network updates, improving average accuracy from 86.50% to 88.97%. We then show that a single MoPET model consolidates four heterogeneous datasets into one network, improving average accuracy over the best isolated PEFT adapters (93.46% versus 92.83%). Finally, we show that co-training with auxiliary datasets improves accuracy on data-constrained clinical targets, raising average target accuracy over the strongest isolated adapter from 81.58% to 83.58%. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/sdoerrich97/mopet.

Heavy-tailed distributions arise naturally in sequential decision-making problems such as financial investment, online advertising, and network management, where rare but extreme outcomes can dominate performance. Heavy-tailed bandits model online decision-making in these settings by assuming only that rewards $X$ satisfy $\mathbb{E}[|X|^{1+\epsilon}]\leq u$, for some tail exponent $\epsilon\in(0,1]$ and moment bound $u<+\infty$. However, most existing regret minimization algorithms require these parameters to be known. This assumption is particularly restrictive in practice: $\epsilon$ and $u$ govern the frequency and magnitude of rare events and are therefore precisely the quantities that are hardest to infer reliably from limited observations. Motivated by an open problem posed by Genalti and Metelli at COLT 2025, we resolve the assumption-free adaptation problem for heavy-tailed bandits and characterize the price in the regret of not knowing the tail parameters. We first study adaptation to the moment bound $u$ for a fixed tail exponent $\epsilon$. We prove that every algorithm unaware of $u$, or of any upper bound on it, must obey a sharp trade-off between its distribution-dependent and distribution-free regret guarantees. We then introduce a scheduled-exploration algorithm that requires no knowledge of $u$ and matches the resulting adaptation frontier up to logarithmic factors. Finally, we show that the same algorithm can be instanced without knowing $\epsilon$ by calibrating its exploration schedule to the endpoint $\epsilon=1$. It achieves sublinear regret for every fixed $\epsilon>0$, while no algorithm can guarantee sublinear regret uniformly over all $\epsilon\in(0,1]$. Altogether, our results resolve the COLT open problem without additional distributional assumptions and provide a sharp characterization of the statistical cost of adapting to unknown heavy tails.

Large-scale multivariate time series from heterogeneous IoT sensors demand accurate long-term forecasting for resource scheduling and predictive maintenance. While recent time series foundation models exhibit strong generalization, they rely on static parametric knowledge and lack dynamic access to external historical patterns during inference. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) offers a potential remedy, yet its application to time series forecasting is challenged by magnitude variations across heterogeneous sources and the mismatch between historical similarity and future consistency. We propose CrossRAG, a retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that integrates Shape-Aware Memory (SAM) with RevIN normalization for magnitude-robust shape-level retrieval, Future-Consistent Contrastive (FCC) learning to distinguish informative references from hard negatives with similar history but divergent futures, and Cross-Attention Temporal Fusion (CATF) to fuse retrieved historical–future reference pairs into the backbone's representations at the representation level. Experiments on seven public benchmarks show that CrossRAG consistently outperforms both parametric-only baselines and existing retrieval-augmented forecasting methods.

Double Machine Learning (DML) is a popular approach for treatment effect estimation in various settings, which allows a wide range of flexible machine learning methods to be used for nuisance parameter estimation while preserving valid inference. In practice, however, applied researchers must choose among many machine learning algorithms for nuisance models, and the impact of this choice on the variance estimation of DML is not well characterized. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study to compare the coverage probability of DML confidence intervals across different machine learning algorithms. In this study, we compare (1) analytical confidence intervals derived by DML theory versus (2) bootstrap confidence interval. We use a set of learners including ordinary least squares, LASSO, Random Forest, LightGBM, and Neural Networks under different data generation settings. We evaluate the performance across difference settings by bias, confidence interval width, and most importantly, coverage probability. Our results show substantial variability in coverage performance across analytical and bootstrap confidence intervals, highlighting that learner choice plays a critical role in reliable DML inference. Surprisingly, we find that in many settings, when sample size increases, the coverage probability of both DML analytical and bootstrap confidence interval decreases. We further investigate coverage probabilities using a real dataset on rural urban differences among U.S. counties. The real data analysis discovers that (1) the model performance still varies by the learner choices and (2) greater rurality has a statistically significant increasing effect on county level obesity prevalence.

Many real-world systems rely on predictive models to inform decisions, and fairness concerns arise in both the prediction and decision stages. We introduce end-to-end fairness optimization (E2EFO) as a unifying framework that integrates fairness across the prediction-to-decision pipeline. We focus on resource allocation with group-based fairness: the prediction task estimates allocation impacts while limiting accuracy disparity across groups, and the decision task distributes those impacts equitably by optimizing a group-based alpha-fairness measure. Within this framework, we propose fair decision-focused learning (FDFL), a training paradigm that jointly accounts for prediction accuracy, prediction fairness, and decision regret – the loss in decision fairness due to imperfect predictions. FDFL trains the predictor by gradient descent, combining the objective gradients through multi-task learning techniques. The core computational challenge is the decision Jacobian with respect to the predictor parameters: we derive exact closed-form formulas for a tractable class of fair allocation and apply a differentiable optimization layer in the general case. We further establish a finite-sample generalization bound for the scalarized FDFL objective. Numerical experiments on a healthcare-based single resource allocation and a synthetic multiple resource allocation illustrate the value of jointly accounting for prediction fairness and decision fairness in prediction-informed decision-making.