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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Friday 24 July

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.HC

Unboxing Diffusion Models for the Arts: Interactive Model Bending and Practice-Based Explainability

Explainable AI (XAI) in creative practice can be less about technocentric explanation and more about enabling artists to inspect modify and debug models as part of making Yet largescale texttoimage diffusion systems are typically presented as opaque endtoend tools limiting this kind of material engagement We argue that even large models can function as creative materials when their internal structure is made visible and manipulable To support this we propose a handson approach to explainability centred on experimentation and intervention We instantiate this approach with a model bending and an interactive (inspection) interface integrated into ComfyUIs nodebased workflow including interactive layer selection and intervention controls Through qualitative and quantitative analysis of bending interventions in Stable Diffusion 15 we show how manipulating specific components of a diffusion pipeline produces relatively consistent families of visual effects allowing artists to build practical layerlevel intuition about how different parts of the model shape generated images
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

Reflector: Arrangement-Aware Harmonic Retrieval for Sample-Based Composition

Sample retrieval tools can help composers find harmonically compatible material, but querying from a fixed reference sample becomes less informative as arrangements evolve and the harmonic context shifts with each musical decision. We present Reflector, an interactive audio workstation that tracks harmonic combinations as they accumulate on the composer's timeline and adapts retrieval as the arrangement develops. The system is organized around a fixed interval-class oracle: a hand-designed table of weights that scores how pitch-class content combines between sources. An encoder trained entirely on synthetic audio learns to approximate the oracle in a 128-dimensional embedding space, where dot products stand in for compatibility scores at interactive speed. As the composer arranges material on a multi-track timeline, a sweep-line analysis discovers co-sounding regions, computes oracle-weighted centroids, and retrieves against the composite harmonic identity of the session as it evolves. Session centroids projected into a navigable 3-D space reveal structural harmonic relations across the composer's body of work. This paper is a systems account: we give the design rationale for each architectural decision, characterize Reflector's behavior through intrinsic measurements on a working sample library, and describe the implementation. The characterization yields a central finding: the learned embedding preserves the kernel's pairwise judgments while covering the whole library, something the kernel cannot do when used directly as a retrieval rule, because the embedding's normalized geometry cannot express the degenerate solutions that direct scoring favors. The entire pipeline runs locally with no copyrighted training data. Reflector is free, and the training pipeline is open source.
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Machine Learning

LunarFM: A Shared Multimodal Representation of the Moon's Surface

The renewed global focus on lunar exploration, driven by the prospect of in-situ resource utilization and a sustained human presence on the Moon, has created growing demand for accurate, large-scale characterization of the lunar surface. Although vast quantities of orbital remote-sensing data have been collected, scientific analysis and resource mapping remain fragmented by heterogeneous multiinstrument observations, sparse labels, and bespoke task-specific modelling workflows. Here we introduce LunarFM, a multimodal foundation model that learns a general representation of the lunar surface from diverse orbital measurements. LunarFM assimilates observations from six instruments across three lunar missions, mapping 18 input channels to a shared embedding space. We demonstrate that this embedding space supports a diverse range of downstream applications, including similarity search, few-shot resource mapping, mineral abundance regression, and geological unit classification, enabling efficient scientific investigation and resource-oriented analysis. We provide a machine-learning-ready dataset of co-registered multimodal observations spanning latitudes from 70{\deg}S to 70{\deg}N, a pretrained multimodal masked autoencoder, and a companion embedding dataset providing a joint 768-dimensional representation of lunar surface properties. All code and data are available at https://lunarfm.trillium.tech/
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All authors Marc Girona-Mata, Jakob Gawlikowski, Sumit Goski, Gautier Bardi de Fourtou, Valentin T. Bickel, Ben Moseley, Abigail Calzada-Diaz, Sylvester Kaczmarek, Raúl Ramos-Pollán

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Learning Ergodic Dynamical Systems from a Finite Trajectory

We consider the problem of learning from a single finite trajectory of an ergodic stochastic dynamical system. More precisely, we study discrete-time autonomous stochastic systems defining time-homogeneous Markov processes. We first focus on estimating the optimal one-step prediction function by nonlinear least squares, and derive high-probability guarantees measured with respect to the invariant measure of the process. These results make explicit how the non-independent and non-identically distributed nature of trajectory data modifies the classical statistical learning analysis. We then extend the framework to higher-order systems and finite-state spaces. Finally, we show that the same least squares and concentration arguments naturally extend to learning Koopman operators. Our approach combines tools from statistical learning theory and quantitative ergodic theory for Markov chains. It relies, in particular, on a concentration inequality for Hilbert-space-valued additive functionals of uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chains.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.HC

Universal BCI Personalization: One API for Frozen EEG Trunks and Foundation Models

Frozen EEG encoders proliferate; per-model fine-tune defaults do not scale. We present Nimbus Personalizer: one contract encode to Bayesian head to BrainState (optional affine mid-tier) that sits on heterogeneous frozen trunks without a new personalization stack per architecture. Thesis (systems): the contribution is the trunk-agnostic API - not LDA-on-embeddings as an ML novelty - so OEMs integrate once and swap trunks. Evidence: the same surface runs on five classical trunks EEGNet, Shallow, Deep, Conformer, ATCNet x four MI datasets (18 cells) and on a foundation encoder (REVE) under the same Personalizer. Where embedding capacity exists, the head is a cheap default mid-point versus warm-start fine-tune or PEFT, costing orders of magnitude less adaptation wall time while recovering much of the fine-tune accuracy gain; calibration-only-when-clean holds in 12/18 cells. Head gains are supporting evidence that the API is useful where capacity exists. Subject-level confidence intervals identify the clearest dataset and span zero elsewhere. All results are exploratory (subject-level bootstrap, no confirmatory tests); the decision logic for when to escalate adaptation is addressed in our companion work on the control layer.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AR

HiKV: Hierarchical Importance-Aware KV Cache with Hardware Acceleration for LLM Decoding

With the rapid adoption of long-context large language models (LLMs), the continuously growing KV cache during decoding has become the critical memory bottleneck. To tackle this challenge, we propose HiKV, a novel algorithm-hardware co-design that exploits KV cache redundancy through hierarchical importance awareness. Algorithmically, HiKV compresses the KV cache at two granularities: Stage I evicts unimportant tokens within a fixed budget, and Stage II further loads only the significant elements of each retained token, reaching compression ratios unattainable at a single granularity. Architecturally, we develop a dedicated accelerator centered on a reconfigurable importance sorter that switches between the distinct sorting datapaths each stage requires, unifying the two-stage acceleration in one circuit with minimal overhead. Evaluated on representative LLMs, HiKV achieves up to 7.95x speedup and 90% energy reduction in the attention computation over the vanilla KV cache baseline within negligible 1% accuracy loss. Under iso-accuracy constraints, HiKV outperforms state-of-the-art importance-based methods by achieving an additional 1.82~4.87x reduction in external memory accesses. These benefits are enabled by specialized hardware components that add only 8% to the system area.
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All authors Chao Fang, Jun Yin, Man Shi, Marian Verhelst

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Agentic Root Cause Analysis through Evidence-Grounded Reasoning

Diagnosing the root cause of anomalies is essential for safe industrial operation. Despite extensive sensor instrumentation, formulating hypotheses and gathering evidence remains a manual process, creating a major operational bottleneck. While existing data-driven approaches aim to automate this, two critical limitations restrict their deployment: their operate as black boxes unable to justify their diagnosis, and they require scarce labeled examples of faulty operation. To address this gap, we introduce AgentRCA, a zero-shot agentic framework for evidence-grounded root cause analysis. Rather than learning fault-specific mappings, AgentRCA performs inference-time reasoning by combining a data-driven digital twin (modeling normal system dynamics) with a tool-augmented large language model. The agent iteratively gathers statistical evidence, evaluates competing hypotheses, and identifies the physical fault that best explains the observed behavior. Evaluated on a real-world multiphase-flow facility and a large-scale chemical plant, AgentRCA achieves diagnostic performance competitive with fully supervised baselines without relying on fault-specific training. Crucially, it produces transparent reasoning traces that explicitly link observed symptoms to their underlying physical causes. These results establish autonomous hypothesis-driven reasoning as a practical foundation for scalable industrial root cause analysis.
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Machine Learning

Local-Global Geometric Insights for Graph Neural Networks via Entropic Curvature

Curvature notions on graphs, particularly Ollivier-Ricci and Forman, have emerged as powerful tools for addressing fundamental issues in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) such as oversmoothing and oversquashing, but rely almost exclusively on local edge-level comparisons and therefore fail to certify how information actually propagates over long distances. We introduce Entropic Curvature, a global, transport-based curvature obtained by extending the Lott-Sturm-Villani framework to graphs through the displacement convexity of entropy along Wasserstein geodesics. We define a tractable Weak Entropic Curvature proxy that lower-bounds the global entropic curvature, and from it derive (i) a Poincare-type inequality controlling oversmoothing, (ii) a transport-entropy generalization bound, and (iii) an expansion paradox proving that sparsity, strong spectral expansion, and positive entropic curvature cannot coexist in large graphs, unifying oversmoothing and oversquashing as opposite ends of a single curvature spectrum. We translate the theory into three practical mechanisms, the E-Gate aggregator, the ENT structural encoding, and Midpoint-Completion Rewiring (MCR), and benchmark them against SDRF, FoSR, BORF, LCP, and Graph Ricci Flow on six node-classification benchmarks, and graph-classification.
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Machine Learning

Interior interpretability with attention rollout: contraction and propagation profiles in Transformers

Feature-attribution methods assign scores relating input variables to a model's output, but do not by themselves characterize how explicitly defined interaction operators compose across its intermediate layers. We introduce interior interpretability, a propagation-based perspective on internal model organization, and instantiate it for tabular Transformers using attention rollout. We interpret rollout as a row-stochastic operator encoding attention-mediated propagation between feature tokens. By applying classical Doeblin–Dobrushin contraction theory, we show that a rollout operator with a small Dobrushin coefficient is quantitatively close to a rank-one stochastic matrix whose common row is determined by its normalized column sums. This result gives a structural interpretation to the corresponding rollout propagation profile. In Transformers trained for metabolomic age prediction, the measured rollout contraction strengthens with depth. Trained and randomly initialized models also exhibit different propagation profiles, although the present experiments do not establish the predictive relevance of individual rollout-ranked variables. Exploratory comparisons with PCA and GradientExplainer approximations to SHAP reveal localized agreement among highly ranked variables but weak agreement across complete rankings. Attention rollout is therefore used here as a diagnostic of attention-mediated propagation, not as a causal explanation or faithful attribution of the complete Transformer.
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Machine Learning

Indexing: the Beginning and the End

We study information bottlenecks in modern deep-learning architectures – RNNs, softmax transformers, linear-attention transformers and state-space models – through the lens of the indexing primitive. In this primitive, the input consists of $n$ bits and one integer $i$ from $1$ to $n$ called the index, and the output equals the value of the $i$-th bit. We introduce causal complexity for masked architectures. We show that architectures with low causal complexity cannot solve the indexing primitive in any constant number of layers when the index appears at the end of the input. In particular, this limitation applies to low-parameter RNNs, SSMs and masked linear-attention transformers. In contrast, small softmax transformers can solve it in one layer, while non-masked linear-attention transformers can solve it in 2, which separates them from their masked counterparts. In turn, when the index appears at the beginning, we show that small RNNs are capable of solving this task in 1 layer, while all the other architectures require 2. All our impossibility results are unconditional and apply even to models that employ infinite-precision real arithmetic. Moreover, experiments for up to $n=64$ qualitatively align with our theory: configurations with low-parameter theoretical solutions learn the indexing task easily, while configurations that do not admit such theoretical solutions struggle to learn as the sequence length grows.
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Machine Learning

Integrated Order Dispatching and Routing for Last-Mile Pickup via Deep Reinforcement Learning

In recent years, the growing complexity of last-mile pickup operations has increased the need for fast and accurate decision-making on logistics platforms. This challenge is fundamentally driven by two key and tightly coupled decision-making processes: order dispatching and routing. Solving them separately overlooks their interdependence, while fully end-to-end learning can be unstable and costly on large, variable-scale instances due to sparse rewards. To solve this problem, we propose an integrated optimization framework which couples a learned routing oracle with real-time dispatching heuristics. For the routing subproblem, we develop a Dynamic-Residual Graph Attention Network encoder with a Look-Ahead Courier-Personalized decoder. For the dispatching subproblem, we develop a routing-oracle-guided dispatching heuristic with local search, where the oracle provides near-optimal solutions to select candidate couriers while retaining real-time scalability. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets from Cainiao Logistics are used to test the performance of our approach, including an offline evaluation and an online rolling-horizon simulation. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms other benchmarks regarding solution quality and solving time, indicating it can effectively support logistics companies in solving real-time and large-scale last-mile pickup problems.
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All authors Yida Xu, Zhaofang Mao, Yuheng Miao, Jiaxin Zhang, Yiting Sun

Machine Learning

IQ-JEPA: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture with a Hermitian Vision Transformer for Sound Speed and Attenuation Estimation from Ultrasound IQ Data

The speed of sound in tissue is a prerequisite for well-focused imaging and has diagnostic value, but recovering it from raw pulse-echo channel data is fundamentally a nonlinear inverse problem. Learned solvers are fast yet label hungry. Simulated sound-speed labels are expensive, while abundant real channel data is unlabeled. We propose IQ-JEPA to exploit both data types. An encoder is pretrained without labels to predict the latent representation of masked in-phase and quadrature (IQ) regions from visible context, then fine-tuned on simulated maps. Sound speed appears in the IQ signal as a phase difference, invariant to the constant phase offset. The encoder is a Hermitian vision transformer that operates on the complex signal directly. Its attention is equivariant to that phase and its conjugate-product feed-forward is invariant to it, so the encoder reads a quantity analogous to the one classical coherence methods use. On 79,293 Fullwave 2.5 simulations at 2.5 MHz, pretraining on the 63,435 unlabeled acquisitions reaches 15.60 m/s at 10,000 labels. This is a roughly threefold gain in label efficiency over supervised training, growing to over fourfold at 1,000 labels. It is about 2.2x below an InversionNet baseline, and 8.71 m/s at full labels. The gain still grows with more unlabeled pretraining data. Our comparisons point to self-supervision as the dominant factor. The same encoder transfers. Its frozen features expose sound speed and attenuation, and cross-distribution pretraining between layered and abdominal phantoms costs little accuracy. We see this as a first step toward a foundation model for quantitative ultrasound.
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Machine Learning

Beyond Binary Rooftop Mapping: A Four-Class Deep Learning Framework for Green Roof Potential Assessment from Open Swiss Geospatial Data

The development of effective urban climate adaptation strategies requires comprehensive spatial information on rooftops and buildings, since such information underpins the assessment of ecosystem services provided by green infrastructure, particularly for urban heat island (UHI) mitigation. Although green roofs are widely acknowledged as a promising measure for improving urban thermal comfort, most existing research maps either current green rooftops or rooftops with greening potential, but not both. This study presents a modified deep convolutional neural network rooftop classification framework based on Roofpedia, developed by the Urban Analytics Lab at the National University of Singapore. The proposed model combines high resolution aerial imagery with rooftop slope information derived from a digital surface model and relies entirely on publicly available Swisstopo datasets: SWISSIMAGE orthophotos, swissSURFACE3D elevation data, and swissTLM3D building footprints. Applied to Bern, Switzerland, the model labels rooftops into four categories: existing green roofs, rooftops suitable for green roof installation, rooftops with solar panels, and flat rooftops unsuitable for greening. The framework identifies realistic opportunities for green roof expansion and supplies urban planners with evidence-based information for green infrastructure deployment in Bern and other Swiss cities. Because it is fully open source, the framework is transferable to cities worldwide.
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Machine Learning

Cross-Tokenizer On-Policy Distillation via Byte-Prefix Marginalization

Open-weight language models from different families exhibit complementary capabilities, motivating their consolidation into a compact student through on-policy distillation (OPD). However, full-vocabulary OPD typically assumes a shared tokenizer, while existing cross-tokenizer methods may discard teacher probability mass or assign it to student tokens with unrelated content. We introduce Byte-Prefix Marginalization (BPM), which re-expresses the teacher's next-token distribution over the student vocabulary in a shared byte space. Specifically, BPM assigns each teacher token's probability to the longest student token whose byte representation is a prefix of the teacher token's bytes, aggregates mass mapped to the same student token, and places otherwise unmatched mass in an explicit residual category. This produces a vocabulary-complete, byte-aligned, and mass-preserving target for dense OPD. The target exactly recovers the teacher-induced byte-prefix marginal when the relevant prefix does not span multiple teacher tokens (a condition satisfied at more than 99% of training positions) and uses a mass-preserving, chain-factorized lower bound otherwise. Across Qwen3-32B, GLM-Z1-9B-0414, and MiniMax-M2.7 as teachers, BPM consistently outperforms current cross-tokenizer methods on six mathematics and programming benchmarks, improving six-benchmark avg@8 by 3.7-6.6 points over the strongest baselines.
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All authors Hao Wang, Kun Yuan, Wenlin Zhong, Minglei Zhang, Han Xiao, Ming Sun, Honggang Qi

Machine Learning

Evolution-Aware MSA Reasoning for Subsampling via Factor Graphs

Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSAs) provide protein language models with explicit evolutionary context, but their large depth makes subsampling unavoidable under limited token budgets. Existing strategies, including random selection, identity-based filtering, and diversity-driven sampling, are effective heuristics, yet provide limited control over the evolutionary signals retained in the subset. In this work, we recast MSA subsampling as an explicit optimization problem, where key evolutionary measures, including query identity and diversity, are treated as controllable objectives. Building on this view, we introduce AP-REASONER, an Affinity-Propagation-based factor-graph approach. With evolution-aware unary factors, exemplar-consistency factors, and two control knobs, AP-REASONER performs factor-graph reasoning through message passing to infer a fixed-budget MSA subset. Experiments on long-range contact prediction and conformational ensemble prediction show that AP-REASONER outperforms baseline subsamplers on structure-sensitive downstream tasks and enables controllable recovery of alternative protein conformations. These results highlight the value of modeling MSA subsampling as a controllable optimization problem, where factor-graph reasoning offers an effective alternative to heuristic selection.
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All authors Zhangzhi Xiong, Minzhang Li, Haotian Yu, Sixian Shen, Kexin Zhang, Mingrui Li, Jie Zheng, Kewei Tu, Jingyi Yu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Learning Bidirectional Causal Interactions with Heteroscedastic Neural Networks

Estimating contemporaneous bidirectional interactions from observational data is difficult because each outcome is endogenous to the other, while flexible regressions may capture only reduced-form dependence. This paper proposes SEM-DNN, a heteroscedastic neural simultaneous-equation estimator that learns reciprocal structural interactions without external instruments. Identification exploits conditional covariance diagonalization: when structural shocks have zero conditional means, are conditionally uncorrelated given predetermined covariates, and exhibit nonproportional conditional variances, only the true interaction coefficients diagonalize the conditional residual covariance across the feature space. The method jointly approximates nonlinear structural mean functions and feature-dependent variances using a diagonal Gaussian quasi-likelihood that incorporates the simultaneous-system Jacobian. We establish unique identification and positive-definite local curvature of the profiled population criterion and show that, under neural-profile compatibility conditions, the implemented neural criterion inherits this curvature despite nonunique network parameterizations. The coefficients admit a causal interpretation when the structural equations represent autonomous mechanisms that remain invariant under the relevant interventions. Monte Carlo experiments with nonlinear, high-dimensional nuisance functions and non-Gaussian shocks show that SEM-DNN recovers structural effects more reliably than parametric, kernel-based, and separate-equation neural alternatives as information increases, although at greater computational cost. An application to ready-to-eat cereal scanner data illustrates how the method can study contemporaneous price-sales feedback and assess identification strength, residual diagonalization, variance calibration, and optimization sensitivity.
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Machine Learning

Synthetic Speech, Real Signal: Paralinguistic Preservation and Cross-Lingual Augmentation via Voice Cloning

Synthetic data augmentation in speech is common practice for linguistic tasks like ASR, but has seen far less work for paralinguistic ones, especially clinical tasks where labelled data is expensive and some patient groups are underrepresented. Voice cloning is one such augmentation approach, but is typically evaluated on speech intelligibility (WER) or speaker similarity (SS) rather than on downstream performance, and it remains unclear whether these preserve the paralinguistic signal such tasks depend on. We benchmark eight voice cloning models on five paralinguistic tasks across public and clinical datasets, showing most preserve signal with modest degradation. We then clone English clinical speech into Japanese and find that training on cloned data outperforms raw cross-lingual transfer for depression and anxiety detection on real Japanese speech, suggesting voice cloning is a promising direction for augmenting clinical speech data in low-resource languages.
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All authors Roseline Polle, Owen Parsons, George Fairs, Luis Miguel San Martin Fernandez, Cole Looney, Xiaoliang Wu, Alexandra Livia Georgescu, Stefano Goria

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Hopformer: Homogeneity-Pursuit Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting multiple time-series with high-dimensional covariates presents a core challenge: unifying common temporal patterns while retaining meaningful series-specific information. We introduce Hopformer (Homogeneity-Pursuit Transformer), a two-stage framework that addresses this challenge. In the first stage, we perform a Sparsity Pattern Aggregation (SPA) scheme extracting a common low-variance trend that incorporates the covariates. This acts as a homogenization layer. In the second stage, a LoRA-fine-tuned Transformer models the remaining complex dependencies in the residual. Our method is theoretically grounded. We prove that SPA achieves a near-optimal bias-variance trade-off via an oracle inequality. We also provide generalization bounds for the second stage under dependent time series data. Hopformer sets a new state of the art, improving MASE by an average of 6.56% across synthetic and real-world forecasting benchmarks.
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All authors Wan Zhang, Qinjie Lin, Chan Lee, Weijian Li, Han Liu, Kai Zhang

Machine Learning

Efficient Recommendations via Graph Coarsening and Label Propagation

Graph-based recommendations are widely adopted in real-world industrial applications. However, graphs in these systems often reach a massive scale, posing notable scalability and efficiency challenges. This requires techniques that can effectively balance predictive quality with computational cost. One promising approach is graph coarsening, an adaptive graph reduction technique that offers a way to systematically construct smaller, yet structurally representative, versions of the original large-scale graphs. In this work, we propose a flexible two-stage diffusion framework that combines graph coarsening with multi-step label propagation in the telecommunications domain. Domain-specific heuristics are applied to first aggregate nodes into meaningful communities, reducing graph size while preserving essential business-relevant relationships. An initial diffusion process done by a Label Propagation Algorithm (LPA) or a Graph Neural Network (GNN) propagates labels across the coarsened graph to produce coarse-grained predictions. Finally, a second LPA within subgraphs generates the final recommendations for individual users. On a real-world telecommunications dataset, when using LPA in both stages, our method achieves up to +24% NDCG@5 over the full-graph LPA baseline. Incorporating a lightweight GNN in the first stage further boosts NDCG@5 by more than 50%, but requires substantial training and inference time. Through extensive experiments and a detailed ablation, we quantify these trade-offs and demonstrate that our coarsening-driven approach delivers an optimal balance between scalability, latency, and recommendation quality.
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Machine Learning

An Insight on Evaluation Metrics Under the Imbalanced Case of Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection is inherently characterised by severe class imbalance, making the interpretation of evaluation metrics challenging. Although metrics such as AUROC, AUPR, F1-score, and MCC are widely used, their values convey different meanings depending on the anomaly ratio. In this work, we analyse the behaviour of those four common anomaly detection metrics under varying levels of imbalance. We focus on the study of metric landscapes, visualisations that relate metric values to true positive and true negative rates, providing an intuitive view of metric preferences and stability. Our analysis offers practical guidance for interpreting and comparing anomaly detection results across datasets with different imbalance ratios.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

General Value Functions for Remaining Useful Life and Failure-Mode Prediction

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction and failure-mode classification are central tasks in predictive maintenance. Many data-driven pipelines use fixed-window supervised learning with complete terminal labels; such routes do not naturally encode the temporal recursion linking successive degradation-state predictions when observations are partial or unit identities are unavailable. We formulate prognostics as vector General Value Function (GVF) prediction on an absorbing degradation process, treating RUL and failure-mode probabilities as temporally consistent targets rather than independent window-level labels, and estimate them with a multi-step temporal-difference estimator, TD($n,\lambda$). Supporting theory identifies the Bellman fixed point of the vector GVFs, characterizes the linear projected-TD limit and its relation to complete-return Monte Carlo regression under realizability, and explains when bootstrapped TD targets are less variable than Monte Carlo returns. On an event-triggered multimode simulation and NASA C-MAPSS label-scarce stitch data, TD improves RUL and failure-mode prediction relative to a supervised same-backbone Monte Carlo control, especially under scarce complete labels. Practically, fragmented, identity-free degradation records can contribute local Bellman transitions instead of being discarded until complete run-to-failure labels are available.
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All authors Hao Yan, Ali Sarabi, Qing Zou, Boyang Xu

Machine Learning

Autoregressive EHR Foundation Models with Multimodal Inputs

Autoregressive foundation models trained on tokenized electronic health records (EHRs) can support zero-shot clinical prediction, yet most operate on structured event codes alone, and do not incorporate multiple modalities in a principled way. We present a framework for conditioning such models on auxiliary clinical modalities, including ECG waveforms, chest X-ray images, and clinical notes, using modality-specific latent compression and gated cross-attention with temporal alignment. We investigate two key design choices: (1) how to compress long per-modality sequences (e.g., ECG time series) before they enter the multi-modal cross-attention. This feature may be essential to reduce compute overheads and may be beneficial for generalization; (2) how the choice of pretrained encoder for each modality impacts downstream performance. Through controlled ablations on MIMIC-IV, we show that the best latent-compression configurations outperforms both uncompressed cross-attention and mean pooling. Encoder choice has a clear within-modality effect, with stronger pretrained encoders consistently outperforming weaker alternatives. We further show that merely adding auxiliary modalities does not guarantee improvement on ICU mortality prediction over an EHR-only baseline. This implies that careful design of the fusion architecture and an appropriate evaluation in the clinical context are required.
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All authors Yuxuan Liu, Joshua Placidi, Jinpei Han, Alfred John Balston, Marek Rei, A. Aldo Faisal

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Explicit Iteration Complexity of Exact Data-Driven Inverse Optimization for Integer Linear Programs

A data-driven inverse optimization problem (DDIOP) is the problem of estimating the objective-function parameters (weights) that explain observed optimal-solution data, and it arises in many applications, including integer linear programming (ILP). It is known that, by applying gradient-based optimization methods to the suboptimality loss, the inverse optimization of ILPs can be solved exactly within finitely many oracle iterations, and that the required number of iterations is bounded as $T=O(1/\gamma(\ell_{\mathrm{sub}})^2)$ in terms of a problem-dependent geometric constant $\gamma(\ell_{\mathrm{sub}})$. However, no means of bounding $\gamma(\ell_{\mathrm{sub}})$ from below as a function of the problem size has been available, and hence the number of iterations could not be given as an explicit function of the problem size. We therefore give, when the forward problem is an integer linear program (ILP), the number of iterations sufficient for projected subgradient descent applied to the suboptimality loss to achieve exact consistency with the observed data, as a fully explicit function of the number of samples, the dimension of the features, the ranges of the features, and the structure of the constraint coefficient matrix, up to polynomial factors in the basic constants (the diameter of the weight set, the step-size parameter, and the Lipschitz constant of the suboptimality loss).
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Variational Low-rank Tensor Decomposition for Multisubject Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

Modeling shared and subject-specific structure in multisubject spatiotemporal data remains challenging, particularly in neuroimaging, where both spatial and temporal patterns exhibit rich variability across subjects. Existing matrix and tensor decompositions provide interpretable factorizations, but rely on fixed multilinear structures or coupling schemes that may limit their flexibility in capturing complex variability. In this work, we introduce a spatiotemporal variational tensor decomposition (ST-VTD) framework that combines a tensor factorization generative model with structured priors to jointly represent spatial maps and temporal dynamics. Spatial factors are regularized to promote a low-rank structure inspired by the LL1 decomposition, while temporal factors are modeled using a learned Long short-term memory (LSTM)-based prior, enabling flexible and adaptive dynamics. Posterior inference is performed using an amortized variational formulation by unrolling iterations of an optimization algorithm, leading to an interpretable and parameter-efficient architecture. The proposed inference framework employs a warm-start strategy based on group independent component analysis, which we found to improve optimization performance. Experiments on a realistic synthetic functional MRI (fMRI) dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves latent factor recovery compared with representative classical and probabilistic decomposition benchmarks.
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All authors Laura M. Montaldo, Ricardo A. Borsoi, Sebastian Miron, Tulay Adali

Machine Learning

Generalised Balanced Softmax: A Finite-Data Perspective on Logit Adjustment for Long-Tailed Recognition

Models trained on long-tailed data using standard softmax tend to exhibit higher training error and a larger generalisation gap for classes with fewer training samples. We characterise this class-wise disparity as the preference issue and quantify it using a new metric, the model imbalance level $I$. To understand this issue, we analyse how imbalanced training data adversely affects class-wise gradients under standard softmax training. This paper then develops a finite-data Generalised Balanced Softmax (GBS) framework for analysing and mitigating the preference issue. The framework uses the training-time logit adjustment $z_{nc}+\beta\log|N_c|$, which is algebraically identical to the training-time logit-adjusted loss of Menon et al. (2021) when $\tau=\beta$. The case $\beta=1$ also coincides with Balanced Softmax and with the unit adjustment supported by the Fisher-consistency argument under the true data distribution, corresponding to an idealised infinite-data setting. Building on this existing loss family, this paper uses a heuristic power-law assumption to motivate the adjustable coefficient and studies how $\beta$ affects trained models. Across the evaluated long-tailed benchmarks, $\beta=1$ does not attain the highest average testing recall on most datasets, showing that a different coefficient can be preferable when training on finite data. The selected values of $\beta$ reduce $I$ and improve average testing recall relative to the $\beta=1$ reference, while retaining negligible computational overhead and compatibility with existing representation-learning frameworks.
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All authors Yi-Hang Zhu, Rajeev Raman, Shiqi Su, Jianyuan Sun, Xinyu Yang, Nan Xing, Huiyu Zhou

2607.22258 · 24 Jul · 26 pages, 8 figures. Revised author version of the CBS work published in Pattern Recognition. Title and terminology updated to Generalised Balanced Softmax (GBS); theoretical presentation and relationship to existing logit-adjustment methods clarified. Underlying loss function and reported experimental results unchanged

Machine Learning

IFCLoRA: Topology-Aware Rank Allocation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a widely used approach to parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) of LLMs whose effectiveness depends on rank allocation. Existing adaptive LoRA methods derive ranks from local gradient, activation, or matrix statistics collected before or during fine-tuning; training-time variants add overhead, and local signals reveal little about each module's structural role in information propagation, giving weak global grounding for scarce-capacity allocation. We propose IFCLoRA, a topology-aware method for pre-fine-tuning rank allocation and adapter initialization. Using a small calibration set, IFCLoRA performs intervention tracing on the frozen model and constructs a sparse task-conditioned interaction graph over LoRA target modules. From this graph it extracts a global information-flow topology prior and fuses it with each node's local gradient sensitivity to form a topology-dominant Information-Flow Centrality (IFC) score, measuring participation in task-conditioned multi-hop propagation. The IFC scores then serve as module-level routing signals for one-shot discrete rank allocation under a rank-budget constraint. Reusing response vectors from tracing, IFCLoRA constructs a function-preserving flow-response subspace initialization, giving adapters task-relevant output subspaces. Across all settings, IFCLoRA achieves higher mean scores than standard LoRA with comparable fine-tuning time and peak memory; it requires a one-time offline calibration stage. On GSM8K, IFCLoRA attains the highest mean accuracy among compared PEFT methods on both base models, exceeding standard LoRA by 4.75 percentage points on LLaMA-3.1-8B. Resulting rank allocations are non-uniform and vary across tasks and base models, suggesting that task-conditioned global information-flow topology can serve as a useful structural prior for rank allocation in low-budget PEFT.
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Machine Learning

Optimization of time-consuming experimental conditions using pseudo-experimental data guided by adaptive polynomial regression

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an optimization method that sequentially proposes the next candidate explainable variables for optimizing target variables by balancing exploration and exploitation. BO is often used under a limited evaluation budget, such as hyperparameter tuning of deep learning. Despite its effectiveness, conventional BO may have poor convergence in practical experimental science where each evaluation is often costly and time-consuming. Recently, BO methods have been proposed that accelerate optimization by using pseudo-experimental data that simulate experimental data. However, when only a limited number of experimental data are available, the generated pseudo-experimental data may be of insufficient quality. In this study, we developed PolyBO to improve optimization time by generating high-quality pseudo-experimental data even when the number of trials is limited. PolyBO performs BO efficiently by generating pseudo-experimental data with an adaptively updated versatile parametric model. This low-capacity polynomial regression model is intended to enable efficient BO even with limited experimental data. PolyBO updates the BO surrogate model with a combined dataset consisting of experimental data and pseudo-experimental data and then performs optimization. Using synthetic benchmark functions with diverse landscapes, we found that PolyBO reduced the optimization time by a median of 42%. For a real-world material composition optimization problem, PolyBO reduced the optimization time by a median of 96% compared with conventional methods. Overall, PolyBO achieves efficient optimization in settings where each experiment requires a long time.
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All authors Hirotaka Sugawara, Yujin Taguchi, Kei Minagawa, Yusuke Hiki, Takashi Morikura, Akira Funahashi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Convergence analysis of a family of Zermelo-type iterations for the Bradley–Terry model

Zermelo's algorithm is a classical method for computing the maximum likelihood estimator in the Bradley–Terry (BT) model, but its convergence can be slow in practice. To accelerate computation, Newman introduced a family of Zermelo-type fixed-point iterations parameterized by $\alpha$, with Zermelo's algorithm recovered at $\alpha=1$. Empirical evidence suggests that the choice $\alpha=0$ often converges substantially faster, making it a promising alternative, yet the mechanism underlying this acceleration remains elusive. This paper provides theoretical insight into this phenomenon through a systematic local convergence analysis. We derive closed-form expressions for local convergence factors under synchronous and asynchronous updates and analyze their dependence on $\alpha$ via spectral analysis of the associated Jacobian matrices. For synchronous updates, we show that the algorithm may fail to converge when $\alpha<1$, and its local convergence factor is quasi-convex in $\alpha$ under the population BT model. In contrast, asynchronous updates are always locally convergent, and their local convergence factor is provably monotonically increasing in $\alpha$ under the population BT model of consistently ordered bipartite comparison graphs, establishing the optimality of $\alpha=0$ in this setting. We further establish asymptotic approximation results for the population convergence factors under the BT model, justifying their practical relevance. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the theory. Our analysis complements existing convergence results and shows that the acceleration of $\alpha=0$ arises not only from the parameter choice but, more importantly, from the use of asynchronous updates.
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Machine Learning

Latent PDE mapping for efficient physics-informed learning across geometries with limited data

In this study, we introduce latent PDE mapping, a broadly applicable physics-informed learning technique designed to enable efficient geometric generalization with sparse training data. Latent PDE mapping pulls back geometry-specific PDE residuals and boundary conditions to a predefined latent geometry via the deformation gradient, thereby enabling the automated calculation of geometry-consistent shape gradients that are missing in conventional physics-informed machine learning formulations. We demonstrate the utility of latent PDE mapping in solving the anisotropic Aliev-Panfilov PDE of cardiac electrophysiology using both physics-informed neural networks and physics-informed deep operator networks. The Aliev-Panfilov PDE serves as a challenging exemplar: a nonlinear, time-dependent PDE benchmark with sharp gradients that are expensive to capture using traditional numerical solvers. To represent the limited data regime, we train the networks using just fifteen geometric samples drawn from parameterized distributions in two and three spatial dimensions. While modest improvements appear for geometries parameterized by affine and shear deformations, latent PDE mapping demonstrates significant benefits on select geometric families, achieving a factor ~4-6 reduction in mean relative L2 error. Furthermore, our results show that the computational cost of applying latent PDE mapping was modest during network training, and negligible at inference. Taken together, our study highlights how latent PDE mapping facilitates the creation of generalizable physics-informed machine learning models from limited sets of training geometries.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Deep Convolutional Large-Margin $\ell_p$-SVDD for Visual Anomaly Detection

Visual anomaly detection requires adaptive representations and reliable decision boundaries, particularly when anomalous training samples are scarce and class distributions are highly imbalanced. Classical kernel-based methods yield principled geometric decision regions but typically operate on fixed features, while deep detectors learn task-specific representations but often fail to provide an explicit margin-aware kernel boundary. In this study, we propose DLM-SVDD, a deep large-margin novelty-detection framework that jointly learns convolutional features and an explicit kernel-based decision boundary. By drawing on the large-margin $\ell_p$-Support Vector Data Description ($\ell_p$-SVDD) approach, the proposed method performs explicit margin maximization and nonlinear slack penalization while adapting the representation to the target task. To train the proposed model, we present an optimization scheme that alternates between a Frank–Wolfe–based update of the convex dual boundary and a CNN update step operating on a smooth margin-violation loss induced by the recovered boundary. To improve scalability, we analyze the efficiency–accuracy trade-offs for different kernel approximation strategies, deriving practical propositions for large-scale anomaly detection. Extensive experiments on multiple standard benchmarks show consistent performance improvements over the baseline and strong overall performance compared with state-of-the-art methods while illustrating that the proposed joint representation–boundary learning scheme remains effective under severe imbalanced class distributions.
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