Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
VarRate: Training-Free Variable-Rate KV Cache Compression for Long-Context LLMs
Shahrzad Esmat, Dhawal Shah and Ali Jannesari
The key-value (KV) cache is the main
memory bottleneck in long-context large
language model (LLM) inference. Two leading training-free families are both structurally limited:
token-selection methods (SnapKV, Ada-KV) score importance from an observation window and evict low-scoring
tokens, but eviction is irreversible – so when the importance signal degrades under query-agnostic reuse, accuracy collapses by 11-15 points; uniform low-rank coding keeps every
token but spends equal rank everywhere, wasting budget. We observe that both failures share one cure: rank should be allocated, not evicted. We present VarRate, a training-free KV codec that assigns each
token a variable low-rank budget by its query salience, keeping every
token at a nonzero rank. Comparable adaptive-rank codecs reach this allocation only through training; VarRate requires none. Because no
token is dropped, it degrades by only 3.5-5.5 points where query-aware selection collapses. At a matched 20% budget on LongBench (16 tasks), VarRate stays within 0.8 points of the uncompressed model on both Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen2.5-7B. Averaged over the two, it is the strongest matched-
memory compressor. It significantly beats its uniform-rank ablation on both models. Against KVzip, a method purpose-built for query-agnostic reuse, it is accuracy-equivalent in three of four settings and within a point overall, at about one-eighth the prefill overhead.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Verbalizable Representations Form a Global Workspace in Language Models
Wes Gurnee, Nicholas Sofroniew, Adam Pearce et al. (+13 more)
Out of everything the human
brain processes, only a small fraction is consciously accessible, in the sense of being available for verbal report, deliberate control, and flexible
reasoning. In this paper, we present evidence that an analogous functional distinction has emerged in large
language models. Using a new interpretability technique, the Jacobian lens, we identify the representations a model is poised to verbalize at any point in its processing. These representations, which we collectively call the J-space, exhibit the functional properties characteristic of a global workspace: their contents can be reported, deliberately summoned and held, used to carry the intermediate steps of silent
reasoning, and passed as arguments to arbitrary downstream computations, while automatic processing such as text parsing and routine inference proceeds without them. The J-space also has structural signatures that global workspace theory associates with conscious access: it carries coherent content only in an intermediate band of layers, holds on the order of tens of concepts at a time, and is broadcast by the model's weights more widely than other representations. These properties make it a practical window into a model's unspoken thinking. In
alignment audits, it reveals strategic deliberation, evaluation awareness, and trained-in misaligned dispositions that never appear in the model's outputs. We find that post-training installs the Assistant's point of view in the workspace, and we introduce counterfactual reflection training, which improves behavior by training only what a model would say if interrupted and asked to reflect. These results indicate that
language models maintain a small, privileged set of representations bearing some of the functional hallmarks of conscious access, and that decoding these representations sheds light on ongoing cognitive processes.
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All authors Wes Gurnee, Nicholas Sofroniew, Adam Pearce, Mateusz Piotrowski, Isaac Kauvar, Runjin Chen, Anna Soligo, Paul Bogdan, Euan Ong, Rowan Wang, Ben Thompson, David Abrahams, Subhash Kantamneni, Emmanuel Ameisen, Joshua Batson, Jack Lindsey
Machine Learning
Diffusion models recover accurate mixture weights despite score function insensitivity
Andrew Dennehy, Ramchandran Muthukumar, Rebecca Willett et al. (+1 more)
Score-based generative models exhibit a puzzling behavior: they often appear to cover all modes of a target
multimodal distribution and yet may fail to learn the correct relative mode amplitudes, which can be interpreted as mixture weights. We resolve this apparent paradox by relating the
diffusion score matching (DSM) loss to the error in estimating mixture weights from generated samples. We show that, even when the target score is insensitive to mixture weights, generated samples can recover the weights accurately if the scores at intermediate noise levels are informative about the weights. Accordingly, we define the
diffusion score sensitivity index (DSSI) as the variation in the DSM loss relative to changes in a parameter. We then show that the DSSI governs the accuracy with which the parameter of the target distribution can be estimated from generated samples. For Gaussian mixtures in arbitrary dimensions, we prove that the mixture weight estimation errors are on the same order as the DSM loss under mild conditions. Empirically, we show the emergence of sensitivity during the noising process of
benchmark data distributions under typical noise schedules, and that these sensitivity values predict how well a well-trained model recovers mixture weights. Furthermore, we show that the choice of noise schedule can reduce
diffusion sensitivity, leading to mode amplification. Although we focus on mixture weights, the proposed sensitivity framework governs the recovery of any qualitative parameter of the target distribution.
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All authors Andrew Dennehy, Ramchandran Muthukumar, Rebecca Willett, Nisha Chandramoorthy
Machine Learning
Inpainting Insights: Elevating Visual XAI with Photorealistic Perturbations
Josef Lindl, Mariana Chaves and Damien Garreau
The increasing complexity of state-of-the-art machine learning models has made their behavior progressively harder to interpret, spurring rapid advancements in the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). Among many methods proposed, perturbation-based approaches play a major role. By systematically altering (perturbing) input features, these approaches measure the impact on the model's predictions. For image data, traditional perturbation techniques, often involve replacing pixel values e.g., with a pre-defined color. However, such approaches, but also more refined deterministic techniques, generate unrealistic out-of-distribution samples and often leave visible artifacts, which can mislead the model and compromise explanation quality. In this work, we adjust LIME, a widely used perturbation-based method, to demonstrate how generative inpainting can improve perturbation-based explanations for images. We achieve photorealistic perturbed samples that align better with the original data distribution and enhance explanation quality.
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Machine Learning
Deep Learning Approaches for Sleep Apnea Classification from Polysomnographic EEG Signals
Shashank Manjunath, Mukesh Cheemakurthi and Aarti Sathyanarayana
Sleep apnea diagnosis via polysomnography remains resource intensive and relies on time consuming manual data analysis and scoring. Recent work has demonstrated that central nervous system effects of sleep apnea events can be detected through electroencephalogram (
EEG) signals. However, most work uses a single feature type on various
datasets combined with different classification
algorithms. In this work, we present a comprehensive comparison of deep learning architectures and feature representations for automated sleep apnea detection from multichannel
EEG on a single
dataset of pediatric subjects. We evaluate
Vision Transformers and Graph
Attention Networks across distinct signal representations: raw temporal signals, short-time
Fourier transform spectrograms, coherence based graphs, and two topological data analysis (TDA) derived features. Using age and sex matching of our train and test sets, we train on 2410 pediatric subjects and test on 575 pediatric subjects. We achieve a best test AUC of 0.750 using a
vision transformer based model trained on TDA features. Stratified analysis across patient demographics (age, sex, AHI severity) and sleep stages (N1, N2, N3, REM) reveals significant performance variation. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of
EEG based automated OSA screening while highlighting essential challenges for clinical deployment.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.DS
Ptolemy's Equant Equates to a Universal Dynamical Clock via Machine Learning
Jingdong Zhang, Luan Yang, Murilo S. Baptista et al. (+4 more)
Oscillatory dynamics arise ubiquitously in nonlinear systems, yet identifying a physically interpretable phase and phase dynamics in nonlinear, high-dimensional oscillations remains a central unresolved problem. Here we establish the principle of a universal dynamical clock, a physical perspective in which oscillations of arbitrary dimensionality and geometry are equivalently represented as uniform rotation through an equant-induced nonlinear viewing coordinate, inspired by Ptolemy's equant and formalised through an areal-uniformity principle reminiscent of Kepler's second law. Using a machine-learning framework, we demonstrate the existence of such an equant for a broad class of oscillatory dynamics and construct the associated dynamical clock and phase dynamics under additive forces, including noise, periodic perturbations, and coupling. Its value in uncovering new physical rules and phenomena is demonstrated by four findings: (i) collective oscillations in Escherichia coli populations obey a previously unexplained superlinear scaling law, resolving a long-standing open problem posed in 2004; (ii) the response mechanisms of engineered genetic
circuits to changes in gene expression and environmental conditions; (iii) a classical-mechanics counterpart of the Berry
geometric phase emerges naturally from the phase of the dynamical clock; and (iv) optimal equant non-uniformity provides a
geometric early-warning signal for critical transitions and enables prediction of critical parameters. By providing operational and system-agnostic phase dynamics that can be constructed directly from data, the dynamical clock enables principled classification, comparison, and control of oscillatory systems, and offers a new route to understanding how specific dynamical regimes support distinct functional behaviours in networked systems.
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All authors Jingdong Zhang, Luan Yang, Murilo S. Baptista, Zefeng Zhang, Qunxi Zhu, Wei Lin, Celso Grebogi
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
FLINT: Fingerprinting Federated Learning Architectures from 5G PHY-Layer Side Channels
Md Nahid Hasan Shuvo, Mahmudul Hassan Ashik and Moinul Hossain
Federated Learning (FL) over 5G cellular networks protects raw data but remains vulnerable to side-channel leakage. Prior fingerprinting attacks assume packet-level network visibility, an assumption that does not hold at the 5G Physical (PHY) layer, where user payloads are encrypted and
Radio Network Temporary Identifiers (RNTIs) may change over time. However, we demonstrate that PHY-layer scheduling metadata broadcast over the Physical Downlink Control Channel (PDCCH) preserves architecture-associated temporal patterns. We introduce FLINT, a novel black-box fingerprinting framework that infers FL model architecture families, including CNNs, RNNs, and
Transformers, using only coarse PHY-layer observations. FLINT overcomes the lack of network-layer visibility by decoding PDCCH scheduling information, mapping changing RNTIs to physical user devices, and applying multi-view temporal modeling to distinguish architecture-specific training behavior. This leakage is security-critical because knowledge of a client's model architecture can transform passive reconnaissance into targeted downstream exploitation. Extensive experiments on an over-the-air srsRAN-based 5G testbed demonstrate that FLINT achieves a macro F1-score of 0.930 for architecture-family classification. To our knowledge, FLINT is the first work to fingerprint AI/ML model architectures using lower-layer 5G side-channel information obtainable by any protocol-aware adversary.
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Machine Learning
ADS-C: Antidistillation Sampling for Classification
Khawaja Abaid Ullah and Mohammad Javad Khojasteh
Knowledge
distillation enables an adversary to replicate a proprietary classifier by querying its prediction interface and training a surrogate on the returned probability vectors. Antidistillation sampling, proposed for large
language models, counters this threat with an input-dependent, gradient-directed perturbation of the served distribution; its transfer to classification has not been studied. Adapting the defense to classification, we show its behavior is governed by the distribution of the teacher's per-input confidence margins. Because well-trained classifiers are severely overconfident, the direct transfer exhibits an inert window: below a closed-form-predictable threshold, it affects neither attacker nor defender; beyond it, the defense undergoes a phase transition and degrades the teacher faster than the attacker's student. Temperature softening rescales the transition in closed form, and every temperature configuration lies on the same unfavorable trade-off curve. Our method, ADS-C, composes the perturbation under a closed-form, per-input margin budget that provably preserves every served top-1 prediction, so the defended teacher's accuracy equals the undefended teacher's identically. Under this guarantee the distilled student still loses 17.4 percentage points on CIFAR-100, 29.6 on CIFAR-10, and 13.3 on Tiny-ImageNet; matching this degradation with the unmodified defense costs 27.5, 32.9, and 22.2 points of teacher accuracy. Because served labels are unchanged, a hard-label attacker gains nothing, while the defended soft output trains a student up to 29.7 points below that floor: the incentive to distill served probabilities is not merely removed but reversed. To our knowledge, ADS-C is the first antidistillation defense for classification whose utility cost is exactly zero.
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Machine Learning
Robust Peak-cost Constrained Reinforcement Learning
Shilpa Mukhopadhyay, Sourav Ganguly, Santosh Mohan Rajkumar et al. (+3 more)
We study robust peak-cost constrained reinforcement learning (\ours), where the objective is to maximize expected reward while controlling the maximum cost encountered along a trajectory. This setting is motivated by safety-critical applications in which a single large violation can be catastrophic and therefore cannot be adequately captured by the standard CMDP framework based on expected cumulative cost. Existing reachability-constrained RL methods adopt Lagrangian-based approaches, yet the underlying duality properties of peak-cost constrained MDPs remain unclear. We show that, unlike standard CMDPs, peak-cost constrained MDPs may not admit zero duality gap. We further consider a robust formulation to address simulator-to-real-world mismatch in the transition dynamics. To solve this problem, we develop a surrogate optimization framework and a robust value estimation method based on integral probability metrics. We prove that, with appropriate hyperparameter choices, the surrogate solution attains the same robust reward value as the original problem while violating the constraint by at most \(\epsilon\). Experiments show that the proposed method effectively enforces safety under dynamics perturbations while retaining strong reward performance across diverse environments.
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All authors Shilpa Mukhopadhyay, Sourav Ganguly, Santosh Mohan Rajkumar, Honghao Wei, Debdipta Goswami, Arnob Ghosh
Machine Learning
Looped Latent Attention: Cross-Loop KV Compression for Looped Transformers
James O' Neill and Fergal Reid
Looped, weight-tied
Transformers reduce parameters by reusing a single block, but decoding still stores a separate K/V cache for every recurrence step. We show that this loop-indexed cache is highly structured. For a fixed
token, layer and head, K/V vectors trace a short low-rank trajectory across loops, while the head and layer axes remain much flatter. We introduce Looped Latent
Attention (\lla{}), a post-training cache codec that stores compact K and V latents and reconstructs loop-specific K/V vectors only when
attention reads them. The default per-head codec compresses recurrence, while \lla{}-2D also folds heads into one latent for the extreme-compression regime. The codec is initialized from the SVD of teacher activations and refined with logit and
attention-output
distillation. At matched cache budget, per-head \lla{} outperforms head-axis MLA, cross-layer sharing, KV quantization and final-loop reuse, showing that the recurrent cache is low-rank but not safely collapsible to a single state. The same axis advantage holds on Ouro-2.6B-Thinking and transfers to Huginn-3.5B, where an SVD codec remains near-lossless to $32\times$ compression in decoder-independent evaluation. The cache reduction is exact. On one H200, the latent-store path increases measured Ouro-1.4B batch capacity at 4k context from 32 to 768 sequences at $21.3\times$ compression. Lastly, for long
reasoning rollouts such as in MATH-500, on-policy refinement on student-generated prefixes raises accuracy at $4\times$ compression from 0.43 to 0.66 and reduces no-answer generations when compared to
token-level off-policy
distillation.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Design-Based Supervised Learning with Noisy Human Labels
Robert Chew and Matthew R. Williams
Researchers increasingly use automated classifiers to label unstructured data for statistical analysis. Existing rectification methods can correct errors in these automated labels using a probability-sampled audit set, but they usually treat the audit labels as correct. In practice, human audit labels are often noisy, and only some audited items are reviewed by an expert or adjudicator. We propose Partially Adjudicated Design-Based Supervised Learning (PA-DSL), a method for this setting. It uses adjudicated cases to correct noisy human labels and then uses the corrected audit information to debias analyses based on the full set of automated labels. The
estimator is valid for a broad class of downstream analyses when the audit and adjudication probabilities are known. In synthetic and Wikipedia Detox semi-synthetic experiments, PA-DSL maintains nominal coverage and reduces RMSE by 10-17% relative to using only adjudicated labels when noisy human labels contain recoverable signal.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.ST
Prediction-Only Distillation in Linear and Logistic Regression
Hien Dang, Pratik Patil and Alessandro Rinaldo
Self-
distillation (SD) is typically studied when the student is retrained on the teacher's original training inputs. In many practical deployments, however, the labeled training data are no longer available, and one has access only to the trained predictor and fresh unlabeled
covariates. We study SD in this prediction-only regime through a fresh-X prediction-mixed scheme: a pure-distilled student is trained on fresh
covariates pseudo-labeled by the teacher, and the final predictor is an affine combination of the teacher and student predictions. For ridge regression under proportional asymptotics, we derive deterministic equivalents for the optimally mixed prediction risk under general anisotropic covariance and deterministic signal. We show that this risk is strictly smaller than the teacher risk for almost every pair of teacher and student regularization levels, including when the fresh
covariates are out-of-distribution and even when their covariance is isotropic. We further show that the optimal mixing weight cannot be identified from unlabeled data alone, but can be consistently estimated in a single post-training step using a small independent labeled calibration set, without additional model fitting. Finally, for binary logistic regression, we show that prediction mixing can outperform both the teacher and the pure-distilled classifier.
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Machine Learning
Relevant and Irrelevant: A Renormalization Group Analysis of Transformer Attention
Parviz Haggi-Mani and Irina Rish
Using the
language of Wilsonian renormalization group theory (RG), we treat the
Transformer's
attention mechanism as a perturbation of the trained MLP residual-stack fixed point and ask whether it constitutes a relevant, marginal, or irrelevant operator. We derive a fixed-point shift formula and obtain four testable predictions for the fixed-point geometry, effective rank profile, layer specificity, and perturbation decay spectrum. Testing these on synthetic Markov chain sequences with controlled correlation length, we find: (1) For large chains(long correlation),
attention is strongly relevant: it closes a residual loss gap the MLP cannot bridge and drives a phase transition in representation space, with effective rank jumping above input dimensionality at layer 1 and stabilizing at a high-dimensional plateau. (2) For short chains(short correlation),
attention is irrelevant: the
Transformer converges to the same loss and fixed-point geometry as the MLP, though it contracts perturbations faster. (3) The transition is dominated by the first-layer head (L0H0), which accounts for more than 4 times the representational shift of any subsequent head, consistent with the prediction that the relevant operator acts before the MLP begins integrating out positional variation. (4) Perturbation decay experiments reveal a regime reversal: in the long correlation regime the
Transformer selectively preserves slow Markov modes (5.4 times the dynamic range in decay length vs. 1.3 times for the MLP); in the short correlation regime it suppresses all modes faster than the MLP, with no spectral selectivity. Together, these results show that the relevance of
attention is not a property of the architecture but of the spectral structure of the data-generating process, and that a first-order RG perturbation framework provides a predictive account of that difference.
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Machine Learning
LLM4EHR: Aligning Clinical Time Series with Medical Event Sequences via Large Language Models
Jingteng Li, Alexander Capstick, Louise Rigny et al. (+3 more)
Recent research in clinical machine learning, focusing on outcome predictions in intensive care unit (ICU), has shifted from bespoke supervised models to foundation models, utilising modern representation learning methods. Here, foundation models are pre-trained on mixtures of complex clinical data modalities, useful for various downstream tasks. Existing works often utilise Electronic Health Records (EHR) to provide rich and diverse patient observations to train clinical foundation models. However, existing methods do not sufficiently explore the shared temporal structures between clinical events and time series (TS) observations recorded in EHRs. This limitation potentially leads to less robust and adaptive clinical foundation models, resulting in reduced performance on downstream tasks. To fully exploit this temporal structure, we propose LLM4EHR, a new clinical foundation model trained on ICU EHR data. Combining domain adapted large
language models with a
transformer TS encoder, we pre-trained LLM4EHR by temporally aligning the EHR events and TS. For this, we propose a regularised contrastive objective to learn robust EHR TS representations conditioned on EHR event
embeddings produced by the domain adapted LLM. Supported by an ablation study, we find that learnt EHR TS
embeddings from LLM4EHR improve performance on various downstream clinical tasks with competitive performance. Further, we empirically demonstrate that LLM4EHR learns transferable clinical TS
embeddings that can be deployed to new cohorts via k-shot adaptation. These findings provide a step towards building more generalisable and performant clinical foundation models.
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All authors Jingteng Li, Alexander Capstick, Louise Rigny, Iona Biggart, Neil J Sebire, Payam Barnaghi
Machine Learning
Who Became Financially Vulnerable After COVID-19? A Population-Level Machine Learning Analysis Using MEPS Data
Alexey Kresin, Zien Cheng, Ammar Ahad et al. (+6 more)
The cost of healthcare remains a concern in the United States and may have been influenced by disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines healthcare financial vulnerability before and after the pandemic using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data from 2019 and 2021. High financial burden was defined as out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures exceeding 10% of family income. Survey-weighted subgroup analyses were performed to obtain nationally representative estimates across demographic and socioeconomic groups. Descriptive analyses were complemented by interpretable logistic regression and machine learning models. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios, while random forest and gradient boosting models were used to evaluate predictive performance. Temporal generalization assessed whether models trained on pre-pandemic data remained predictive when applied to post-pandemic observations. Financial vulnerability was strongly associated with poverty status, insurance coverage, and prescription drug spending. Subgroup analyses indicated persistent disparities across population groups, with some evidence of increased burden among vulnerable populations in 2021. Despite these differences, models trained on pre-pandemic data exhibited only modest reductions in predictive performance when evaluated on post-pandemic data, suggesting that the principal predictors of healthcare financial vulnerability remained relatively stable over time. These findings provide a population-level assessment of healthcare financial vulnerability during the COVID-19 period and demonstrate the value of combining interpretable statistical modeling with machine learning for population health research. The results may support future population health surveillance, risk stratification, and healthcare policy research aimed at reducing financial barriers to care.
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All authors Alexey Kresin, Zien Cheng, Ammar Ahad, Ebiyomare Kelvin, Manish Sivaratri, Prabhjeet Singh, Omar Aljawfi, Olabisi Ojo, Nawar Shara
Machine Learning
Stochastic Reset Pathfinding: Path-Level Regret for Cascading Bandits over Graph Paths
Guni Sharon and Wei Zhang
We introduce
Stochastic Reset Pathfinding (SRP), an episodic learning problem on a known directed graph with unknown stationary edge success probabilities. In each episode, the
agent commits to a source-to-goal path, and any edge failure during execution resets it to the source. SRP captures settings such as
entanglement distribution in
quantum repeater networks, payment routing on the Lightning Network, and delivery in unreliable mesh networks. We show that the global-reset structure makes the optimal policy open-loop, placing SRP within the combinatorial cascading bandit (CCB) framework. We propose a Log-Dijkstra meta-
algorithm with UCB (PathUCB) and Thompson Sampling (PathTS) instantiations. Our main technical result is a path-level regret bound for PathUCB that decomposes regret over suboptimal paths via a per-path complexity C(pi) combining each edge's prefix and suffix reliability. The bound is complementary to the edge-level CCB bound and more informative on structured graphs with polynomially many source-to-goal paths. Experiments on
quantum-network, layered-DAG, grid-world, and Erdos-Renyi domains support the theory and show that PathTS typically achieves the best empirical performance among the
algorithms tested. We then exhibit an
adversarial instance on which PathTS fails to converge, consistent with a known exponential obstruction for combinatorial Thompson Sampling on multiplicative-reward problems. We recommend PathTS as the practical default while cautioning that
adversarial instances exist.
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Machine Learning
From hyperplanes to hyperellipsoids: a pedagogical bridge from linear classifiers to single-qubit mixed-state classifiers
Kaitlin Gili
Quantum machine learning ideas are typically absent from traditional machine learning curricula and are instead introduced in upper-level courses on
quantum information processing and
quantum computing. We propose a route for bringing
quantum ideas into the standard machine learning classroom directly after the introduction of binary linear classifiers. Specifically, we develop a pedagogical bridge between linear classifiers and single-
qubit mixed-state classifiers by characterizing their
geometric model structure. This characterization reveals that a single-
qubit mixed-state model for binary classification can be viewed as the “ellipsoidal version” of a standard linear classifier: rather than learning a hyperplane that separates data, the model learns a hyperellipsoid.. We present this connection as an accessible bridge from familiar classical machine learning concepts to
quantum machine learning, and encourage instructors to use it as a natural entry point for introducing
quantum ideas in the undergraduate machine learning classroom.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.AP
Proactive Inpatient Bed Requests for Emergency Department Admissions
QIan Cheng, Nilay Tanik Argon, Aniruddhan Ganesaraman et al. (+1 more)
Emergency department (ED) boarding occurs when admitted patients remain in the ED while awaiting inpatient beds. Boarding is a major driver of ED crowding and has been associated with poor patient outcomes. We propose a framework to help EDs reduce boarding time and length of stay by using information about current patients and bed availability to proactively request inpatient beds before admission decisions are finalized. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process in which predictions of each patient's admission probability and time to disposition are aggregated to guide early inpatient bed requests. This formulation leads to three data-driven policies based on approximate dynamic programming, reinforcement learning, and a newsvendor-type approach. Using a simulation model based on data from a large ED, we evaluate these policies across a wide range of settings. The simulation study shows that proactive aggregate bed requests can reduce average boarding times for admitted patients by 30-70% and average length of stay for all ED patients by 6-15%, while creating only modest idle time for prepared inpatient beds. The newsvendor heuristic provides the most attractive tradeoff between ED performance and inpatient bed idle time, whereas the reinforcement learning heuristic produces smoother bed-request patterns when stability in downstream hospital processes is especially important. Our work shows how EDs can use prediction tools to make proactive bed-request decisions that improve ED operations while helping managers balance reductions in ED delays against inpatient bed idle time. Our findings also illustrate the value of evaluating both simple myopic heuristics and more sophisticated reinforcement learning-based approaches, since each can offer distinct advantages depending on the performance measures and implementation constraints most important to managers.
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All authors QIan Cheng, Nilay Tanik Argon, Aniruddhan Ganesaraman, Serhan Ziya
Machine Learning
qZACH-ViT: Quantization-Aware Intrinsic Explanations with Recursive Attribution-Stabilized Optimization
Athanasios Angelakis
Compact medical-image classifiers need efficiency and interpretable evidence, yet these goals are often addressed separately. We introduce qZACH-ViT, a quantization-aware extension of the zero-
token (CLS-
token-free), position-free ZACH-ViT backbone with recursive intrinsic patch-level class evidence. We also introduce Recursive Attribution-Stabilized Optimization (RASO), which norm-matches classification and attribution gradients and removes attribution components that conflict with classification. We evaluate four controlled conditions on seven MedMNIST
datasets using 50 training images per class and ten fixed seeds, completing 280 runs. All 210 qZACH-ViT checkpoints are converted to executable mixed-precision ONNX INT8 graphs containing 16 signed INT8 MatMulInteger projections with INT32 accumulation. Deployed mixed-precision INT8 qZACH-ViT with Adam improves the FP32 ZACH-ViT baseline mean on all seven
datasets, with a mean paired gain of 0.0313 in the
dataset-specific primary metric; qZACH-ViT with RASO yields a mean gain of 0.0368. Across 964,920 source-to-INT8 test comparisons, prediction agreement is 99.9751%, with a mean absolute primary-metric change of 0.000133 and a maximum of 0.004386. Across 3,600 matched intrinsic maps, mean cosine similarity is 0.999955, mean rank correlation is 0.9944, and mean top-10% overlap is 0.9692. ONNX artifacts are 70.0% smaller than source checkpoints and provide $1.41\times$ and $2.39\times$ end-to-end CPU speedups with one and four threads. RASO significantly reduces sufficiency error and improves input-noise stability over Adam with the same attribution loss, but does not dominate every predictive or explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) metric. These results establish qZACH-ViT as a deployable compact intrinsically explainable model and RASO as a targeted stability-oriented optimization procedure.
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Machine Learning
AI Trading: Evaluating Large Language Models for Technical Market Analysis
Geofrey Ntale
Large
Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for processing the heterogeneous information environments of modern financial
markets. This paper presents a systematic, comparative evaluation of five prominent LLMs: GPT-4 Turbo, Claude 3 Opus, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Llama 3 70B, and the domain-specialized FinGPT, with respect to their capacity for technical
market analysis. The evaluation spans four structured tasks: candlestick pattern recognition from OHLCV data, directional signal generation (BUY/SELL/HOLD), backtesting of signal quality through a simulated execution pipeline, and financial report comprehension. Our experimental framework employs rigorous quantitative metrics, including Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, Sortino ratio, information coefficient, F1-score, and BLEU score. Findings from simulated backtesting indicate that GPT-4 Turbo achieves the highest annualized return and Sharpe ratio among general-purpose models, while FinGPT demonstrates competitive risk-adjusted performance due to domain-specific fine-tuning. Both models outperform a passive S&P 500
benchmark under the tested conditions. The study identifies persistent failure modes across all evaluated models, including numerical
hallucination, context-window limitations, and inconsistent performance in sideways
market regimes. We conclude that while LLMs hold genuine promise within AI trading systems, robust deployment requires careful task decomposition, rigorous backtesting protocols, and domain-aware fine-tuning strategies.
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Machine Learning
Regularity-Aware Stochastic MGDA with Adaptive Per-Iterate Conflict-Avoidant Update
Chentong Huang and Lisha Chen
Multi-objective learning (MOL) aims to optimize multiple objectives simultaneously. The multi-gradient descent
algorithm (MGDA) constructs a common descent or conflict-avoidant (CA) direction by solving a gradient-aggregation subproblem. In
stochastic settings, the vanilla
stochastic MGDA method, SMG, replaces full-batch gradients with mini-batch estimates, causing bias in the resulting CA direction. Existing analyses control this error using continuity of the CA-direction mapping, but do not distinguish how its sensitivity varies with the geometry of the MGDA subproblem. Motivated by this limitation, we show that the MGDA direction map is Lipschitz continuous under reduced nondegeneracy, whereas its general \(1/2\)-Hölder exponent on bounded sets is sharp. This geometry motivates the Multi-objective Regularity-aware (MoRe) method, which retains adaptive MGDA aggregation in the regular regime and switches to a fixed-weight linear scalarization (LS) near degeneracy. The fallback branch skips the MGDA subproblem solve, which can reduce aggregation cost on fallback iterations while avoiding a potentially noise-sensitive update. Theoretically, we establish a per-iterate CA guarantee, and a \(\widetilde{\mathcal O}(T^{-1})\) convergence rate, improving upon the previously established \(\widetilde{\mathcal O}(T^{-1/4})\) SMG guarantee, where \(\widetilde{\mathcal O}\) hides logarithmic factors. Experiments demonstrate favorable multi-task performance and convergence behavior consistent with the theoretical rate.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT
Closed-Loop Bayesian Bandit Encoder with GRAND Receiver for a Bursty Interference Channel
Bhaskar Krishnamachari
Interleaving mitigates burst errors but introduces decoding delay and removes temporal error structure that a channel-aware decoder could exploit. We consider packet-level selection between a random linear code and the same code used with cross-codeword interleaving, over a channel with an unknown number of on/off interferers. The receiver uses Guessing Random Additive Noise Decoding (GRAND) with a replaceable noise model and feeds aggregate channel statistics back to a
Bayesian estimator at the transmitter. Once the interference amplitudes and timing parameters are estimated, the receiver's noise model is replaced: it computes hidden-Markov-model posterior bit-flip probabilities and uses them to order GRAND queries. A discounted Thompson sampler selects between the two transmission modes using a goodput-minus-latency reward whose distribution is endogenously nonstationary: receiver adaptation, rather than channel change, alters the value of each mode. Across five simulation seeds, the interleaved mode is preferred before channel estimation converges. After the learned decoder is activated, the non-interleaved mode becomes preferable because it achieves lower block error rate without interleaving delay. In the reference configuration, the learned noise model reduces block error rate by approximately one order of magnitude relative to ORBGRAND. Using partial channel estimates before full convergence reduces pre-convergence block error rate by up to $4.5\times$. Adding model-predicted utilities as confidence-weighted pseudo-observations reduces post-transition selection of the inferior arm by approximately $65\%$. Under an idealized airtime conversion at a 100~MHz 5G~NR-like symbol rate, the learning transient corresponds to a few milliseconds of occupied symbol time.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Unsupervised Keypoints for Real-Time Fall Detection: Comparative Analysis Under Real-world Conditions with Predictive Bandwidth Reduction
Tasmiah Haque, Jacob Kosinski, Sumit Mohan et al. (+2 more)
Falls among older adults are a major safety and health-systems challenge, yet continuous in-person monitoring is difficult to sustain across home and clinical care settings.
Video-based monitoring can capture fall-relevant motion, but scalable real-time deployment is limited by
privacy, compute, and bandwidth constraints, and existing keypoint-based methods typically rely on supervised or anatomical pose representation, which is vulnerable to occlusion and partial body visibility. We propose a fall-monitoring framework that replaces continuous
video transmission with compact motion representations, using unsupervised keypoints which are extracted locally, and a variational recurrent model is used to forecast motion at the staff end, followed by fall classification. We evaluate the framework on the UR Fall and Human Fall
datasets under random, subject-disjoint, and occlusion-based splits to systematically characterize when each representation has an advantage. We find that random splits do not discriminate between representations, and under subject-disjoint evaluation no uniform advantage emerges; performance varies across held-out subjects with their visual characteristics. Under occlusion, however, unsupervised keypoints substantially outperform supervised keypoints, retaining strong detection sensitivity where supervised keypoints miss approximately half of falls; this advantage reflects their anatomical independence and persists under bandwidth-constrained prediction. The unsupervised detector also requires roughly two orders of magnitude less computation, supporting
privacy-preserving, bandwidth-aware, always-on fall monitoring.
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All authors Tasmiah Haque, Jacob Kosinski, Sumit Mohan, Mohammad Abdullah Al-Mamun, Srinjoy Das
Machine Learning
Interpretable and Calibrated Classification of Clinical Data Using Supervised Feature Binarization
Antony Garcia, Adrian Noriega, Gabrielle Britton et al. (+1 more)
Black-box models limit the adoption of artificial intelligence in medicine because their predictions are difficult to interpret and reproduce. We present a statistically grounded framework for interpretable, rule-based clinical classification using the Bernoulli Naïve Bayes (BNB) model. Supervised chi-square-guided binarization converts continuous variables into binary indicators by selecting thresholds that maximize association with the clinical outcome within the training folds, which allows BNB to operate on continuous medical data without sacrificing transparency. On three
benchmark datasets, Pima Indians Diabetes, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Heart Failure Prediction, the framework reached areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.800, 0.984, and 0.919, respectively. Probabilistic reliability was assessed with a leakage-safe cross-validated calibration analysis reporting Brier score and calibration intercept and slope, and post-hoc beta calibration improved probability calibration across
datasets. These results indicate that an interpretable, statistically motivated framework can perform comparably to more complex models while providing explicit decision rules expressed in clinical units and calibrated risk estimates. A complete worked example further shows that model inference can be reproduced from a printed reference table using only basic arithmetic, without software or proprietary tools, supporting trustworthy and auditable use of artificial intelligence in clinical settings.
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All authors Antony Garcia, Adrian Noriega, Gabrielle Britton, Xinming Huang
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
Improving Network Anomaly Detection via Choquet-Integral-Based Feature Aggregation
Abreu Quevedo, Roger Immich, Giancarlo Lucca et al. (+2 more)
This work investigates a generalized Choquet-integral-based feature aggregation framework to improve anomaly detection in high-dimensional network traffic data. The approach combines adaptive weighting with incremental feature selection to address feature redundancy. Using Random Forest and XGBoost classifiers, we evaluate models trained with both raw and Choquet-aggregated features under varying feature subset sizes. The proposed aggregation achieves up to $7\%$ higher accuracy while reducing data volume by $77.5\%$ (from $214$~MB to $48$~MB), without degrading precision and recall. Results averaged over multiple stratified repetitions indicate that Choquet-based aggregation yields statistically significant gains ($p < 0.05$) in scenarios with limited feature availability, highlighting its suitability for real-time intrusion detection under bandwidth and feature-availability constraints.
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All authors Abreu Quevedo, Roger Immich, Giancarlo Lucca, Graçaliz Dimuro, Bruno L. Dalmazo
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
On the Impact of Entropy-based Features
Iuri Mundstock, Abreu Quevedo, Jéferson Campos Nobre et al. (+3 more)
Network anomaly detection is increasingly challenging due to the growing diversity and variability of traffic patterns, which are not always well captured by traditional statistical features. In this work, we explore the use of
entropy as an additional feature to support supervised network traffic classification. The main idea is to use
entropy to represent variability in selected traffic attributes, complementing conventional descriptors rather than replacing them. We integrate the
entropy-based feature into a standard machine learning pipeline and evaluate its impact through a direct comparison between models trained with and without this feature. Experiments conducted on a public intrusion detection
dataset show consistent improvements in classification performance, while the additional computational cost remains low. The analysis of confusion
matrices indicates a reduction in misclassifications, especially in traffic scenarios with higher variability. Overall, the results suggest that
entropy-based features offer a simple and practical way to enhance existing anomaly detection pipelines. This approach is particularly attractive in settings where lightweight feature engineering and interpretability are important, making
entropy a useful complement to commonly used traffic features.
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All authors Iuri Mundstock, Abreu Quevedo, Jéferson Campos Nobre, Roben C. Lunardi, Thiago L. T. da Silveira, Bruno L. Dalmazo
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
RoboTTT: Context Scaling for Robot Policies
Yunfan Jiang, Yevgen Chebotar, Ruijie Zheng et al. (+8 more)
Recent
robot foundation models operate with single-step or short-history visuomotor context. We introduce Test-Time-Training
Robot Policies (RoboTTT), a
robot model and training recipe that scale visuomotor context to 8K timesteps, three orders of magnitude beyond state-of-the-art policies, without growing inference latency. At this context length, we unlock new
robot capabilities: one-shot in-context imitation from human
video demonstrations, on-the-fly policy improvement, robustness to perturbations, and stronger performance on multi-stage, long-horizon tasks. We also observe, for the first time, steady gains in closed-loop performance as pretraining context length scales. At its core, RoboTTT integrates Test-Time Training into
robot foundation models such as
Vision-
Language-Action policies, yielding a sequence model whose recurrent state consists of fast weights, parameters updated by gradient descent during both training and inference, compressing histories into weight space and retrieving contextual information for long-context conditioning. To scale training context length, the recipe combines sequence action forcing with truncated backpropagation through time. On challenging real-
robot manipulation tasks, RoboTTT improves overall performance by 87% over the single-step context baseline and fully completes a five-minute, ten-stage assembly task, which no baseline ever does. RoboTTT trained with 8K-timestep context outperforms the same model pretrained with 1K timesteps by 62%, suggesting context length as a new scaling axis for
robot foundation models.
Videos are available at https://research.nvidia.com/labs/gear/robottt/
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All authors Yunfan Jiang, Yevgen Chebotar, Ruijie Zheng, Fengyuan Hu, Yunhao Ge, Jimmy Wu, Tianyuan Dai, Scott Reed, Li Fei-Fei, Yuke Zhu, Linxi "Jim" Fan
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
MeanFlowNFT: Bringing Forward-Process RL to Average-Velocity Generators
Yushi Huang, Xiangxin Zhou, Jun Zhang et al. (+2 more)
MeanFlow generators achieve fast few-step sampling by predicting average velocities over time intervals, making them attractive for efficient generation. Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a powerful way to align
diffusion and flow models with human preferences and task-specific objectives. In particular, DiffusionNFT offers an efficient forward-process RL framework that does not require reverse-process trajectories or likelihood estimation. However, applying such RL methods to MeanFlow remains underexplored. DiffusionNFT optimizes instantaneous velocities, whereas MeanFlow samples with average velocities. To bridge this gap, we introduce MeanFlowNFT. Inspired by the MeanFlow identity, which bridges average and instantaneous velocities, we construct an induced instantaneous-velocity predictor. We apply the DiffusionNFT objective to this predictor, making reward optimization well-defined for MeanFlow. Sampling remains based on the average velocity, preserving MeanFlow's fast few-step generation. We further prove that MeanFlowNFT inherits DiffusionNFT's strict policy-improvement guarantee. Experiments on image and
video generation show that MeanFlowNFT consistently improves baselines. Moreover, it outperforms prior state-of-the-art RL-tuned few-step generators on most metrics ($6$ of $8$ on SD3.5-M), and can even surpass multi-step RL-tuned
diffusion while using only a few sampling steps. For instance, on Wan 2.1, $4$-step MeanFlowNFT reaches a VBench score of $84.33$, surpassing $50$-step LongCat-
Video RL ($82.57$).
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All authors Yushi Huang, Xiangxin Zhou, Jun Zhang, Liefeng Bo, Tianyu Pang
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Online Neural Space Time Memory for Dynamic Novel View Synthesis
Baback Elmieh, Lynn Tsai, Zeman Li et al. (+8 more)
Online novel view synthesis from multi-view streaming
videos faces a fundamental trade-off: maintaining a persistent, long-horizon
memory to reconstruct temporarily occluded regions while operating under strict real-time constraints. While Test-Time Training (TTT) offers a powerful
memory mechanism, standard models mandate gradient-based
memory updates at every frame to adapt to the changing motion in dynamic scenes. The computational cost of heavy
memory updates precludes real-time application and can lead to instability over long contexts. Given that
memory updates are more demanding than
memory application and
video content is largely redundant, we propose to decouple the frequencies of these two processes. Our approach performs periodic
memory updates while applying the
memory on a per-frame basis, using cross-view
attention to manage deformations between the prior
memory state and the current frame. To lock in the historical context, we introduce two critical mechanisms: an auxiliary
Memory Loss that forces persistent internalization of the scene, and a
Memory Caching strategy that regularizes active weights against catastrophic drift. Our method demonstrates state-of-the-art minute-scale
memory persistence in online dynamic human scenes at amortized real-time speed.
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All authors Baback Elmieh, Lynn Tsai, Zeman Li, Srinivas Kaza, Tiancheng Sun, Gabor Csapo, Ali Behrouz, Yuan Deng, Stephen Lombardi, Steven M. Seitz, Xuan Luo
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DM
New Snake-in-the-Box Records via Snakepit Surgery and Learned Construction
Paul Orland, Lucas Fagan, Michele Tarquini et al. (+7 more)
The snake-in-the-box problem asks for a longest induced path in the hypercube graph $Q_n$. We find a length-191 snake in dimension $n=9$, the lowest dimension where the maximum is unknown, improving the previous record of 190 that had stood for 14 years. We also establish new lower bounds in dimensions 10-13. To find these records, we introduce snakepits, collections of disjoint snakes, to expand the search space and open new routes between snakes. This motivates our new Snakepit-in-the-Box
benchmark, which seeks maximal edge counts when allowing multiple components. Finally, we introduce Beam Anchor, a search-supervised learned constructor
algorithm that finds 100 inequivalent length-190 snakes in dimension 9.
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All authors Paul Orland, Lucas Fagan, Michele Tarquini, Davide Passaro, Maksymilian Manko, Elli Heyes, Angus Gruen, Giorgi Butbaia, Justin Tan, Sergei Gukov