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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Tuesday 14 July

Machine Learning

Robust XGBoosting for Regression

XGBoost is a very popular and powerful method for prediction. It iteratively fits simple decision trees to the residuals of the previous step. An efficient and scalable implementation is available. The standard loss function for XGBoost is the quadratic loss, but a Huber loss can also be used. In this paper, we study the robustness of XGBoost and show that its performance can be affected by vertical outliers and leverage points. To address this, we explore alternative loss functions, based on M-, S-, and {\tau} -estimators from robust regression. Our results indicate that a two-step procedure, referred to as MM-XGBoost, provides the best trade-off between robustness and prediction accuracy.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Detecting a Route Flip Is Easier Than Knowing Whether to Fix It: Causal Route-Mediated Damage in Quantized Mixture-of-Experts

Top-k Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) routing is discontinuous, so a deployment-motivated numerical disturbance – simulated 4-bit KV-cache quantization read by a protected BF16 gate – pushes tokens across decision boundaries and flips which experts fire. This paper proposes no new mitigation; it supplies a causal apparatus, empirical findings, and a detection-limit result. A four-run apparatus prices the route-mediated fraction (RMF) of quantization damage, a token-level attribution decomposes it by mechanism, and pre-registered probes carry the findings across three architectures. On OLMoE-1B-7B at 4-bit KV (pilot), about a third of the damage is routing-mediated: RMF ~ 0.31 (discovery 0.31 [0.20, 0.41]; process-replicated mean 0.313 +/- 0.020; pre-registered re-execution 0.231). The deployable router margin detects that a flip occurred (AUC 0.772) but cannot tell a harmful flip from a helpful one (at chance): among the tested local, inference-observable router statistics we find no predictor of a flip's loss sign above chance – an empirical benefit-detection barrier bounding selective repair restricted to this feature family. The signed-flip tax and sign-inseparability carry cross-model; the clean-reference remedy's payout is architecture-modulated; a controlled same-checkpoint flag-swap re-scopes the gate's normalization convention to a damage-magnitude moderator, not a route-recoverability mechanism. A real int4 KV kernel yields a fraction compatible with the fake-quant dose curve but underpowered (95% CI [-0.111, 0.394] includes zero) – ruling out gross disagreement, not an independent replication. Hypotheses, thresholds, and evaluations were pre-registered before measurement, with misses reported; a pre-registered held-out read replicates the partition and the near-cancelling tax out of sample, while the strict impossibility exclusion narrowly misses.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Training Variable Long Sequences with Data-Centric Parallel

Training deep learning models on variable long sequences poses significant computational challenges. Existing methods force a difficult trade-off between efficiency and ease-of-use. Simple approaches use static configurations that cause workload imbalance low efficiency, while complex methods introduces significant complexity and code change for new models. To break this trade-off, we introduce Data-Centric Parallel (DCP). Its core principle is to let the data itself drive the runtime. It achieves this by dynamically adjusting direct runtime settings (e.g., parallel size, gradient accumulation, recomputation) based on each batch's sequence length. Empirical results demonstrate that our method achieves up to a 2.88$\times$ speedup on 32 H200 GPUs. Designed for generalization, it can be integrated into any model with 10 lines of code. We anticipate this simple yet effective approach will serve as a robust baseline and facilitate future advancements in distributed training for variable long sequences.
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All authors Geng Zhang, Xuanlei Zhao, Kai Wang, Yang You

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Aletheia: An Offline-First Clinical Decision Support System for Differential Diagnosis in Low-Resource Healthcare Settings

Access to specialist clinical expertise remains severely limited across sub-Saharan Africa, where physician-to-patient ratios can fall below 1:25,000 in rural settings. Existing AI-assisted diagnostic tools predominantly require reliable internet connectivity and high-specification hardware, rendering them impractical for frontline healthcare workers in district hospitals and health centres. This paper presents Aletheia, an offline-first clinical decision support system designed for low-resource healthcare contexts across sub-Saharan Africa. Aletheia is built upon Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, fine-tuned using Quantised Low-Rank Adaptation (QLoRA) on a curated dataset of 27,000 clinical reasoning samples spanning 50 disease conditions with elevated prevalence in East Africa. Evaluation demonstrates a Top-1 diagnostic accuracy of 80% (8 of 10 cases; 95% CI: 49.0-94.3%), Top-3 accuracy of 100% (10 of 10 cases; 95% CI: 72.2-100%), BERTScore-F1 of 0.909, and METEOR of 0.467. These diagnostic figures are computed over a deliberately small set of ten representative clinical case categories, one case each, and are therefore indicative rather than statistically robust; the wide confidence intervals should be read alongside them. The system achieves an Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of 0.275 and passes the Africa Deep Tech Challenge 2026 (ADTC 2026) memory budget constraint of 7168 MB, achieving a peak inference RAM of approximately 3630 MB on the standardised benchmark laptop. These results demonstrate the feasibility of deploying large language model-based clinical reasoning at the primary care level in resource-constrained settings without cloud infrastructure.
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All authors Joseph Walusimbi, Ann Move Oguti, Abubakhari Sserwadda, Precious Boss Kasasira, Charles Brian Okoboi

Machine Learning

Beyond SBDD: Geometric Deep Learning in Polypharmacology and Multi-target Drug Design

The traditional "one drug, one target" paradigm of structure-based drug design (SBDD) frequently proves inadequate for treating multifactorial diseases such as cancer and neurodegenerative disorders, owing to compensatory signaling pathways and the emergence of drug resistance. While polypharmacology offers a synergistic therapeutic strategy, the rational design of ligands capable of simultaneously satisfying the geometric constraints imposed by multiple targets remains a major computational bottleneck. This review positions geometric deep learning (GDL) as a powerful integrative approach to overcome these limitations. We systematically survey GDL architectures ranging from invariant graph neural networks to SE(3)-equivariant diffusion models that harness non-Euclidean molecular data to capture intrinsic three-dimensional (3D) structural interdependencies. We critically analyze GDL applications across three core dimensions, including the characterization of shared binding pockets via geometric embeddings, multi-target bioactivity prediction through heterogeneous graph fusion, and de novo generation of dual-target ligands. Particular emphasis is placed on emerging structure-conditioned generative algorithms that integrate diffusion models with reinforcement learning to autonomously resolve complex geometric conflicts between competing binding sites. Furthermore, we evaluate the pivotal role of multimodal omics integration and specialized geometric benchmarking infrastructures in validating these models. By synthesizing these methodological advances, this review elucidates the paradigm shift in drug discovery from serendipitous exploration to rational, structure-driven polypharmacological molecular engineering, thereby providing a clear, structured guide for navigating the complexities of next-generation therapeutics.
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All authors Tianming Han, Zhijie Pan, Wenchi Ge, Qi Zhao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GT

On Incentivized Exploration beyond Bayesianism and Full-Information

We extend Incentive Compatible Exploration beyond the Bayesian full-information setting of Kremer et al. [2014]. We consider agents that may possess external information unknown to the principal. We show such settings require new notions of incentivized exploration, as well as going beyond a Bayesian perspective, and we introduce a definition where agents choose any reasonable (undominated) action. Furthermore, our framework provides for a more robust treatment of ties, and extends to settings where agents lack a single common prior and instead only know that reward distributions belong to a collection of potential priors.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Deep-learning Causal Retrieval Optimization for Efficient e-commerce Distribution in Pinterest

Pinterest is where people turn inspiration into action as users browse ideas, then take steps toward realization, often by discovering shoppable content. To support this journey, we must distribute commerce content when it helps, not when it distracts. We frame this as a causal decision of triggering shopping candidate generators in early retrieval and deploy a production system at Pinterest that learns personalized and contextualized triggering policies. A deep multi-task model jointly predicts outcomes and uplift of multiple events, trained with a doubly-robust pseudo-outcome alongside calibrated outcome losses for stable, single-robust uplift learning. A randomized data logging supplies counterfactual coverage, and the model is evaluated by both regular and reverse metrics for full assessment. A linear-time offline replay is designed to select thresholds and forecast policy impact with extremely high consistency with online results. For productionization, the model runs in parallel with remote retrieval calls without end-to-end latency regression. At web scale, we cut shopping triggers by up to 85% while holding key shopping sessions neutral, improving important total sessions (+0.26%) and Pin saves (+1.10%), with significant infrastructure savings. By unifying deep causal learning with reliable offline replay and demonstrating production-grade deployment, this work provides a generally practical recipe for early-retrieval optimizations in modern cascading recommenders beyond shopping, aligning exploration and cost with user intent at scale.
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All authors Junpeng Hou, XianXing Zhang, Sai Xiao, Derek Cheng, Darren Reger, Olafur Gudmundsson, Mehdi Ben Ayed, Zhiqing Rao, Huizhong Duan

Machine Learning

QFireNet: A Quantum-Enhanced U-Net for Wildfire Segmentation from Sentinel-2 Imagery

Wildfire detection from satellite imagery is a semantic image segmentation problem that has proven to be difficult due to challenges such as class imbalance, feature complexity, and atmospheric interference. In this paper, we build on the foundational U-Net image segmentation model to develop a quantum-hybrid solution in hopes of more effectively modeling the high-dimensional spectral feature space of the Sen2Fire dataset. We inject a variational quantum circuit in the bottleneck portion of U-Net, specifically the QuFeX and QB-Net ansatzes. We test a classical Feature Pyramid Network (FPN) for further comparative analysis of the model, and we also explore classical improvements to the U-Net model and its training process, including a compression of parameters, alternative loss functions, and uniform mixing of input data. Our primary finding is that under matched conditions, both QB-Net (with an $F_1$ score of 31.18) and QuFeX ($F_1 = 30.79$) outperformed the classical U-Net baseline results ($F_1 = 28.71$). Additionally, the classical FPN achieved a comparable score of 31.13. A crucial finding was that data mixing removed a significant domain shift between the geographically-separated train and test sets, which boosted the classical FPN $F_1$ score to 39.76. We validate the architecture's robustness and generalizability to the wildfire detection problem via cross-dataset transfer on the California Burned Areas (CaBuAr) dataset. Overall, we find that quantum machine learning has potential to provide an advantage in the problem of wildfire image segmentation, and further experiments will continue to validate and expand upon this finding.
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All authors Jaiman Munshi, Tanvi Tewary, Sawyer Bloom, Aidan Chu, Chetan Maviti, Kyon Winston-Bey, Harshit Badjatia, Farhan Kittur, Vardhan Madhavarapu, Varun Kota, Joshua Kwon, Nazia Rangwala-Vohra, Franz Klein

Machine Learning

Certified Domain Consistency for Multi-Domain Retrieval: Label-Free Per-Domain Contamination Control with Conformal Risk Guarantees

Retrieval over corpora that mix several domains often returns relevant but wrong-domain evidence that ranking metrics miss and that conformal risk control bounds only marginally, under-covering the worst domains. This work introduces C3R, a drop-in control layer that, from an inferred domain posterior and no query-time label, certifies a per-domain contamination budget where feasible and otherwise abstains rather than silently violating; on the hardest domains it guarantees a reduction, not a tight bound. The core is a two-split scheme built on risk-controlling prediction sets, whose finite-sample transfer bound crosses from the inferred to the true domain with fully estimable slack, supports heterogeneous budgets, and inverts for deployment. Population validity rests on this bound and a controlled simulation; across a thousand resampled calibrations the certificate never violates (a stability result) while marginal control violates the most-contaminated domain in every draw, and soft demotion retains more recall than the strongest calibrated cascade at equal certified contamination. The method replicates across open testbeds including an independent one from public federal regulations, and an LLM-judged downstream probe indicates wrong-authority grounding rises with contamination and falls under control. The layer is frozen-stack and reranker-agnostic.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Enhancing Small Language Models Reasoning through Knowledge Graph Grounding

Although large language models (LLMs) have set benchmarks for zero-shot reasoning, their deployment remains cost-prohibitive and environmentally taxing. Small Language Models (SLMs) offer a sustainable alternative, but prone to errors, on tasks requiring complex, multi-hop logical grounding. We investigate a neuro-symbolic agentic framework to enhance the reasoning capabilities of SLMs, specifically Gemma 3 (1B, 4B) and Llama 3.2 (3B), using the CLUTRR kinship benchmark. Our approach transforms the SLM into a minimalist agent utilizing two specialized tool calls: extract_facts for symbolic triplet extraction and get_hint for expert reasoning via a Relational Graph Convolutional Network (RGCN). We evaluate these models across two configurations, both in an Oracle scenario with ground-truth triplets and a Realistic scenario relying on self-extracted knowledge. Our results reveal that while RGCN-derived hints provide a 1.5 - 2x performance gain over story-only baselines, the system is constrained by the extraction bottleneck and sequential deductive fragility, where early extraction errors compound over multi-hop chains. Furthermore, we identify a "distraction effect" in specific architectures where noisy, self-generated facts degrade performance despite the presence of expert hints. This work characterizes the challenges of symbolic grounding in low-resource agentic systems and provides a roadmap for iterative verification in neuro-symbolic agentic pipelines.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

ITGPT: A Transformer Based Architecture for the Generation of Dance Dance Revolution and In the Groove Charts

Dance Dance Revolution and In the Groove are rhythm games consisting of songs and accompanying choreography, referred to as charts. Players press arrows on a device referred to as a dance pad in time with steps determined by the song's chart. The process of manual chart generation is timestaking and difficult, motivating interest in automation. We propose ITGPT, a new transformer based architecture for the generation of DDR/ITG charts, and demonstrate significant improvements to generation accuracy and computational cost in comparison to predecessor work.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Breaking Refusal in the First Half: A Mechanistic Study of the Prefill Jailbreak

Aligned language models refuse harmful requests, but a one-line prefill ("Sure, here is") strips the refusal. We ask where and how it fails. The harm representation stays intact: on the prompts the attack flips to compliance, a linear probe reads harm as high as on the refused ones (0.91-0.98), while behavioral refusal drops to chance. This holds across four models and three families (1.5-3.8B, and at 14B). Refusal is therefore a shallow, response-site computation. We localize it to an early window: a dose-matched position control shows the first half of the response suffices to break refusal, while the second half is nearly inert. Three causal probes converge on that window. Restoring the harm direction there partially re-engages refusal. Injecting the model's own refuse-state reverses the jailbreak (74%, held-out). And knocking out the early response's attention to the prefill, but not an equal attention mass elsewhere, selectively collapses the harmful continuation. A base-model control identifies the mechanism: the same knockout collapses the continuation prefill-specifically even in a non-safety-tuned base model (64% to 25% harmful content vs a matched control's 64%, replicated at 7B). So the prefill's grip is generic autoregressive conditioning, not safety-specific suppression, and "refusal restoration" is a model-dependent fallback. The dominant mechanism is passive. A small safety-specific attractor remains on top (logit-trace concentration 0.24 vs 0.03), whose active-vs-passive character we size but do not fully separate. No single direction or component is a clean handle either: the decision is decodable but distributed, and refusal tracks harm rather than scary surface. The consequence is structural: a monitor reading the untouched prompt-side representation is immune by construction, but only to response-site attacks. The mechanism is diffuse; the failure surface is local.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

ToolAnchor: Anchoring Counterfactual Context to Boost Agentic Tool-use Capability

Tool-augmented large language model agents excel at long-horizon tasks, yet they are typically post-trained on fixed toolsets. When tasks demand new tools, these agents struggle to incorporate them effectively, and retraining from scratch is often impractical. We identify the core obstacle in such toolset expansion problem as behavioral inertia: the tendency of agents to fall back on familiar tools and established reasoning patterns despite having access to new ones. We demonstrate that injecting counterfactual anchor contexts at critical decision points can break this inertia, recovering failed trajectories by eliciting suppressed agent capabilities. To scale this insight, we propose ToolAnchor, a framework that uses teacher models to hypothesize these counterfactual contexts, verifies them via student rollouts, and internalizes the successful interventions through agentic post-training. Extensive evaluations across general AI assistant (GAIA), textual search (BrowseComp), and visual search (VDR-Bench) tasks demonstrate that ToolAnchor consistently exhibits competitive performance under expanded toolsets. Our work bridges the gap between static post-training and dynamic adaptation, charting a new path for scalable agentic reinforcement learning.
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All authors Weiting Liu, Jieyi Bi, Wanqi Zhou, Jianfeng Feng, Yining Ma, Ai Han, Wenlian Lu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Delving into the Temporal Challenges of Unified Video Protection Against Image-to-Video and Fine-Tuning-based Customization

Recent diffusion-based video generation models have enabled high-quality personalized video customization through both tuning-based pipelines, which fine-tune a video diffusion model, and reference-based pipelines such as image-to-video generation. However, these capabilities raise serious concerns about personal privacy, identity ownership and intellectual property protection. Existing anti-customization works focus on protecting images, while protection for videos against both reference- and tuning-based customization remains largely underexplored. Protecting videos in this setting raises three challenges: (i) Image-level perturbations, optimized frame by frame, cannot survive temporal compression by 3D video VAE. (ii) A video-level perturbation optimized on a single video is vulnerable to temporal editing and fails to protect unseen videos. (iii) Temporally inconsistent perturbations are not robust to temporal attacks. To address these challenges, we propose Temporally Consistent Universal Adversarial Perturbations (TC-UAP), the first protection method against both reference- and tuning-based video customization. TC-UAP optimizes an identity-level multi-frame UAP over sliding windows from multiple videos, accounting for local temporal dependencies induced by temporal compression in video VAE and enabling a single perturbation to protect unseen videos of varying lengths. Moreover, we introduce intrinsic temporal modeling and an extrinsic surrogate temporal-attack loss, which make the perturbation temporally consistent and robust to unseen temporal attacks. Empirically, quantitative and qualitative results show that TC-UAP achieves the strongest identity protection compared with existing methods under both reference- and tuning-based video customization, and remains robust under multiple unseen temporal attacks.
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All authors Yuxin Huang, Ziming Hong, Mingming Gong, Wanyu Wang, Jing Zhang, Tongliang Liu

Machine Learning

Agora: Collective and Permissionless Internet-Scale Pretraining of Large Language Models

Training large language models at the multi-billion to trillion parameter scale is confined to datacenters, where data-parallel (DP) and model-parallel (MP) techniques presume homogeneous accelerators, high-speed interconnects, and a single orchestrating entity. Frontier model development is thereby concentrated among the few groups able to assemble such clusters. Meanwhile, an enormous pool of compute remains unusable for training: consumer and professional GPUs that are heterogeneous, preemptible, individually owned, and connected only by the internet. We present Agora, a system that makes efficient use of this compute. Agora combines bandwidth-efficient pipeline-parallel model sharding over internet-grade links with multi-party, fault-tolerant collective operations. Each participant holds only one stage of the model, and no single party ever possesses the full weights. We term this setup Protocol Learning: it enables collectively trained, collectively owned models, opening a path to open-source frontier training with economic sustainability. This report presents the outcome of a research effort spanning communication-efficient parallelism, asynchronous optimization, and fault-tolerant systems design. It culminates in the first demonstration of its kind: Pluralis-8B, an open, permissionless pretraining run of an 8.6B-parameter model on 500B tokens of FineWeb-Edu. The model was trained over 40 days by 330 contributor nodes, predominantly consumer GPUs on internet connections, joining and leaving throughout. The run sustained ~170k tokens/s and 4.2 tokens per TFLOP of pooled compute, 63% of the efficiency of a centralized H100 baseline, and converged to within a small margin of a centralized reference run.
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All authors Gil Avraham, Violetta Shevchenko, Hadi Mohaghegh Dolatabadi, Karol Pajak, James Snewin, Harry Xi, Rodney O'Donnell, Thalaiyasingam Ajanthan, Sameera Ramasinghe, Chamin Hewa Koneputugodage, Shamane Siriwardhana, Alexander Long

Machine Learning

Accuracy-Preserving Stability Regularization for Large-Scale Retail Demand Forecasting

Retail demand forecasts are reused across replenishment, capacity, labor, and transportation planning cycles. Point-error objectives do not constrain abrupt movement between adjacent forecasts, while post-hoc smoothing acts only after model fitting. We ask whether a training-time penalty on consecutive within-series movement can improve horizontal forecast-path stability without materially changing point accuracy. The penalty is evaluated in a temporal-structured pipeline combining recent-demand embeddings with calendar, price, hierarchy, item, and store features. On selected M5 demand series at 1000, 3000, and 4000-series scales, the stability-aware hybrid model improves Forecast Stability Score over XGBoost by 6.91%, 6.66%, and 7.68%, respectively, while RMSE changes remain within 0.72% across three random seeds. Post-hoc exponential smoothing attains lower raw movement but incurs a larger RMSE cost; training-time regularization preserves more point accuracy and performs favorably under normalized stability. These findings extend forecast evaluation from point-error minimization toward an accuracy-stability trade-off perspective for operational retail forecasting.
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All authors Jize Li, Jiani He, Dishu Yang, Dingyan Shang, Jingjing Liu, Shiqi Huang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Privacy Preserving Recommender Systems Balancing Personalization with Privacy

Personalized recommendation systems are central to modern e-commerce and retail platforms, but they typically rely on centralized storage of detailed user interaction data, creating significant privacy and regulatory challenges. With increasing requirements from regulations such as GDPR, CCPA, and CPRA, organizations must develop recommendation systems that preserve user privacy without substantially degrading recommendation quality. This work presents and evaluates a privacy-preserving recommendation framework that combines federated learning, differential privacy, cohort-level modeling, and privacy-aware intelligent agents. The framework keeps raw user data decentralized while introducing mathematically bounded noise to model updates. Experiments were conducted on synthetic retail datasets that emulate customer clickstream and purchase behavior. Recommendation quality was evaluated using Click-Through Rate (CTR), Precision@K, Recall@K, and Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG@K) across multiple differential privacy budgets. We evaluate matrix factorization, neural collaborative filtering, and GRU4Rec under varying privacy constraints and analyze the trade-off between privacy and utility. An interactive Streamlit dashboard was developed to visualize recommendation performance, ranking stability, privacy-utility trade-offs, and fairness metrics. Results show that the proposed framework maintains competitive recommendation quality at moderate privacy budgets (approximately $\epsilon \approx 5$), demonstrating that strong privacy guarantees can be achieved with limited impact on recommendation effectiveness. This work provides a practical framework for deploying privacy-preserving recommendation systems that balance personalization, regulatory compliance, and business objectives, offering a scalable approach for next-generation AI-driven retail platforms.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Adapting Generalist Vehicle Models for High-Speed MPC Across Terrains

High-speed off-road autonomy requires precise closed-loop control for a target vehicle while remaining robust across changing terrains. Recent forward kinodynamic (FKD) prediction foundation models suggest a promising path, starting from a generalist model and specializing it to the target platform. However, effective specialization remains challenging, as it often requires substantial real-world data, and models adapted to one setting can still overfit to specific terrains or driving regimes. We present OptCar (Optimized Car), a recipe for bridging the gap from generalist to specialist FKD models that preserves cross-terrain generalization while optimizing performance for a specific vehicle. OptCar introduces a transformer FKD architecture that uses FiLM to condition multi-step predictions on a single dynamics context token summarizing recent state-action history. It then specializes the generalist model using limited real-world data and targeted synthetic rollouts from environment-specific system identification. In closed-loop model predictive control (MPC) experiments across three terrains and an out-of-distribution cart-pulling task, the largest gains appear at 6 m/s, the highest speed evaluated and the regime in which slip dominates tracking error. On vegetation + dirt, the most slip-diverse terrain, OptCar reduces 6 m/s trajectory tracking error by roughly 55% relative to AnyCar fine-tuned on real data alone, and remains the most accurate even when an unseen cart payload changes the dynamics. With 5 minutes of real data per terrain, OptCar is competitive on road with a specialist trained on 30 minutes of road data and outperforms it when the terrain changes. Project Page : https://amrl.cs.utexas.edu/optcar/
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All authors Rwik Rana, Jesse Quattrociocchi, Christian Ellis, Nathan Tsoi, Garrett Warnell, Joydeep Biswas

Machine Learning

Tabular Foundation Models for Discrete Choice Estimation

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) generate predictions on structured data via in-context learning, without task-specific estimation. We ask whether TFMs can be effectively applied to discrete choice, a central demand estimation framework in marketing and operations, and find that directly applying TFMs yields limited performance. The gap is structural: TFMs assume row-independent observations, whereas discrete choice is inherently set-valued and subject to persistent consumer preference heterogeneity. We propose a reformulation that encodes both choice-set dependence and individual heterogeneity within a row-based learning framework. Evaluated on a yogurt scanner panel, individual-level heterogeneity encoding is the dominant driver of predictive accuracy. The best reformulation outperforms hierarchical Bayesian estimation on both holdout log-likelihood and hit rate, running 16 times faster, a practical advantage for large-scale demand estimation. The advantage is largest in the medium-data regime (10–40 purchase occasions per consumer), where parametric Bayesian shrinkage most distorts estimates for atypical consumers. Fine-tuning on population choice data provides additional gains for consumers with shallow purchase histories, where in-context learning has limited individual-specific signal to condition on. These results establish a principled approach for applying foundation models to consumer choice problems more broadly.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Theory-Level Autoformalization: From Isolated Statements to Unified Formal Knowledge Bases

Autoformalization translates informal natural language into formal, machine-verifiable languages. While most work focuses on individual statements, real formalization efforts are inherently theory-level: they require an entire web of axioms, definitions, and lemmas before target theorems can even be stated. In this position paper, we argue for theory-level autoformalization: formalizing complete theories, including all their inter-dependencies, as structured libraries. We examine the significance of this shift, address alternative views, identify open challenges, and propose three promising paths forward. Our survey of autoformalization is available at https://github.com/marcusm117/Awesome-Autoformalization.
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All authors Marcus J. Min, Mike He, Zhaoyu Li, Zixuan Yi, Sharad Malik, Aarti Gupta, Xujie Si, Osbert Bastani

Machine Learning

Deconstructing Actor-Critic: A Large-scale Empirical Study of Design Components for Practitioners

Reinforcement learning is increasingly being considered for controlling real-world systems, from fusion plasma and autonomous vehicles to drug discovery and drinking water treatment, where reliability is essential and tuning budgets are limited. Actor-critic algorithms share a set of design decisions, such as how the policy is updated, how it represents the distribution over actions, how its gradient is estimated, and how often it is updated relative to the value estimator. Using a control task derived from a real water treatment plant, we analyze over 33,000 experiments to determine how these components affect variability across runs and sensitivity to hyperparameters. Common defaults, such as Gaussian action distributions with pathwise gradient estimators, are among the least reliable configurations, whereas bounded distributions with adaptive update schedules remain robust across a wide range of settings. These findings offer empirical guidance to practitioners across scientific and engineering domains for understanding and making component-level decisions when adapting actor-critic methods to new real-world control settings.
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All authors Haseeb Shah, Lingwei Zhu, Adam White, Martha White

Machine Learning

Reassessing Muon for Matrix Factorization

Muon has recently emerged as a strong optimizer for large-scale deep learning, where it reshapes gradient updates through approximate orthogonalization and has been reported to outperform Adam and AdamW in large language model training. Its empirical success has motivated a growing body of theoretical work that interprets Muon as steepest descent under the spectral norm. Yet it remains unclear which of Muon's advantages stem from its update rule itself and which are artifacts of the scale, architecture, and data of modern deep networks. In this work, we isolate the optimizer from these confounding factors by studying Muon on a simple, well-understood, and spectrally structured problem: low-rank matrix factorization. Through a controlled comparison against carefully tuned adaptive baselines, we find that Muon does not consistently outperform AdamW in this setting and that several previously reported advantages are sensitive to hyperparameter choices. Our results provide a more nuanced picture of when spectrum-aware orthogonalization is beneficial and argue for evaluating modern optimizers on controlled problems in addition to end-to-end benchmarks.
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Machine Learning

EMAGN: Efficient Multi-Attention Graph Network via Learned Clustering for Scalable Traffic Forecasting

Traffic forecasting is highly challenging due to complex and nonlinear spatial and temporal dependencies. Self-attention mechanisms have been widely adopted to model dynamic and long-range dependencies, achieving state-of-the-art performance, but suffer from limited scalability due to quadratic computational and memory complexity. To address this, we propose an Efficient Multi-Attention Graph Network (EMAGN) that linearises the spatial attention mechanism itself, inspired by the theory of fast high-dimensional Gaussian filtering. Two learned clustering matrices C_k and C_v adaptively group key and value vectors into M super-clusters, reducing complexity from O(N^2 d) to O(NMd) without sacrificing the flexibility of attention for dynamic dependency modelling. Experimental results on PEMS-BAY and METR-LA show that EMAGN achieves accuracy within 2.7-3.2% MAE of full-attention GMAN while reducing training time by 32%, inference time by 38%, and GPU memory by 58%. Critically, at K=16 attention heads, full-attention GMAN runs out of memory on a standard 11 GB GPU entirely while EMAGN continues to operate, demonstrating a categorical expansion of feasible model configurations. EMAGN also surpasses Linformer and Performer in both accuracy and efficiency within the same backbone, owing to its traffic-network-aware adaptive clustering.
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All authors Mingxing Xu, Rakesh Chowdary Machineni, Ke Liu, Xi Cheng, Chengqi Lu, Xin Hu, Lyuhao Chen, Xiangyu Li, Junwei You, Oliver Gao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Active Learning for Efficient Annotation of Surgical Videos with Weak Supervision

Precise spatial-temporal annotation of laparoscopic videos is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. We propose a human-in-the-loop knowledge acquisition framework that combines active learning with dual-loss optimization to significantly reduce the annotation effort needed for automatic localization and segmentation of objects in the surgical field. Our method employs a foundation model to generate temporally consistent class activation maps (CAMs) from video using two complementary training objectives: a weak supervision loss on video-level tool presence labels for weakly annotated data, and an image-level mask loss on human-corrected annotations obtained through active learning. Rather than requiring dense pixel-level annotation upfront, our pipeline iteratively proposes pseudo-masks that guide the expert annotator to refine the knowledge previously captured by the model. We demonstrate that our framework reduces the effort of surgical video annotation by 50% by the end of training in comparison to fully manual annotation. Through eliminating the need for large, fully annotated datasets from the start, this framework enables scalability to the development of surgical tool segmentation models. This iterative human-in-the-loop refinement supports efficient knowledge acquisition with minimal expert input, providing a practical and deployable strategy for expanding tool segmentation to larger, more diverse datasets and real-world clinical settings.
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All authors Manasa Dendukuri, Matjaz Jogan, Daniel A. Hashimoto, Guiqiu Liao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY

Audited Selective Verification for Risk-Controlled N-1 Thermal Contingency Screening under Deployment Shift

Real-time N-1 contingency screening in an energy management system trades assurance against cost: verifying every credible outage with full power flow is too slow, while fast linear-sensitivity screening gives no statistical guarantee and can silently pass unsafe operating points, especially when a controller drives the system into unfamiliar regimes. This paper introduces Audited Selective Verification, a risk-budgeted screening and triage layer for any controller's output (optimization, model-predictive, or learned). A cheap surrogate proposes which outages to skip; an online audit runs full power flow on a small random sample each window; and a calibrated threshold certifies a thermal-violation-rate bound for the skipped set at a chosen budget and confidence, with a corresponding bound for the unverified trusted subset. Validity rests on real verification and the audit rather than on surrogate accuracy, so it holds under arbitrary deployment shift. It is a risk-budgeted screen, not a replacement for deterministic verification when policy requires checking every credible contingency. On three public transmission systems up to 1354 buses, the realized violation rate stays within budget, standard deterministic and calibrated screens become unsafe under shift, and the method cuts full power-flow studies by 29 to 75 percent per real-time operating point.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DS

Graph Partitioning with Demands: Generalized Conductance and its Applications

We study various graph partitioning tasks subject to general demands. In Graph Partitioning with Demands (GPD), the goal is to delete minimum cost supply edge set so that each remaining component contains at most a prescribed fraction of the total demand. In the hierarchical analogue of this problem, Hierarchical Clustering with Demands (HCD), the goal is to build a hierarchy of clusters, charging each supply edge by the demand in the smallest cluster containing its endpoints. Our main general-graph results are approximation algorithms for GPD and HCD. For every fixed $0<\rho<\eta<1$, we give a polynomial-time bi-criteria algorithm for GPD whose components have demand at most $\eta \cdot W$ and cost at most $\mathcal{O}_{\rho,\eta}(\sqrt{\log n})$ times the optimum cost for threshold~$\rho$. This procedure can then be applied recursively to obtain an $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\log n})$-approximation for HCD. The algorithm for GPD itself uses a crucial subproblem called Generalized Conductance (GC), a new generalization of the Sparsest Cut. On supply trees, we show that GC can be solved exactly in polynomial time. We also give bi-criteria algorithms for GPD based on anchored-LP rounding and separator recursion, as well as a single-criterion $(4+\epsilon)$-approximation in $n^{O(1/\rho)}$ time. Moreover, through previous reduction, these GPD algorithms yield a $\frac{4e}{e-1}$-approximation for HCD on trees. We also prove that HCD and GPD and GC are SSEH-hard to approximate within any constant factor. On trees, assuming the Unique Games Conjecture (UGC), GPD is hard to approximate within a factor of $2-\epsilon$ by reduction from Vertex Cover, while HCD is hard to approximate within a factor of $1.0748$, by reduction from Min-Sum Vertex Cover.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DS

Hierarchical $\mathcal{F}$-Clustering: Approximation and Hardness of Clustering into Trees and Bounded Diameter Graphs

Consider the following variation on the Hierarchical Clustering problem: Usually, while building a hierarchical clustering, one recursively partitions the data until each cluster becomes a singleton. We relax the halting condition of the recursive process to stop whenever the remaining cluster is a graph belonging to a class $\mathcal{F}$. We call this problem Hierarchical $\mathcal{F}$-Clustering and we measure the quality of any solution using adapted Dasgupta's clustering objective. We study two natural choices of $\mathcal{F}$: trees and graphs of bounded diameter. We present the first polynomial time $\mathcal{O}(\log n\cdot\log\log n)$ and $\mathcal{O}(\log n)$-approximation algorithms for clustering into trees and bounded diameter graphs respectively. Our main technical contribution is a framework for approximating such problems based on linear programming. In fact, we characterize graphs classes $\mathcal{F}$ for which our approach can be applied and show that it includes both trees and bounded diameter graphs. However, our ideas are not limited to them and might be useful for other structures as well. Broadly speaking, our framework applies whenever the corresponding flat clustering problem, which we call $p_{\mathcal{F}}$-Partitioning, admits a natural ILP formulation together with a rounding procedure with provable approximation guarantees. Intuitively, given a set of vertices called terminals, the problem is to find an edge set whose removal results in satisfying certain vertex-dependent structural predicate for each terminal. We then use these ingredients to build clustering trees with the aforementioned approximation guarantees. To complement these results, we show that both Hierarchical Clustering into trees and into bounded diameter graphs cannot be approximated within any constant factor under the Small Set Expansion Hypothesis.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.NC

Classifying daily activities needs posture, reconstructing them needs motion

Humans recognize movements effortlessly, even from noisy and complex visual input. But what information in the stimulus allows humans to rapidly classify movements? No framework has systematically compared different strategies of movement analysis to address this question. Here, we used videos of 16 daily activities from the MoVi dataset and compared three strategies: Temporal Movement Primitives (TMPs), which decompose movements into weighted sums of temporally smooth basis functions; Legendre polynomial coefficients, which project joint-coordinate trajectories onto an orthogonal polynomial basis; and Autoencoder latent embeddings. Legendre coefficients and TMPs achieved the highest classifier accuracy, followed by autoencoders. We found two discriminative features for movement classification. The most informative is the general posture of the body, the average spatial configuration that distinguishes one activity from another. Additionally, we identified 9 critical joints that are most predictive for movement classification. Interestingly, good classification accuracy did not automatically lead to good movement generation: when we reconstructed movements for each activity, TMPs preserved the temporal dynamics and produced perceptually natural motion, whereas reconstructions from Legendre coefficients retained only the average posture and appeared frozen. These results reveal a dissociation in how movement information is organized: the static configuration of the body suffices to classify what activity is performed, but the temporal dynamics of movement are required to reconstruct how it unfolds. This distinction clarifies which features the visual system may rely upon for rapid action recognition, and suggests that postural features could enable efficient movement screening in clinical applications, while dynamic information remain essential wherever movement generation is the goal.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Adaptive Filtering of the KV Cache: Diagnosing and Correcting Structural-Role Bias in LLM Inference

Attention-based KV cache eviction (H2O and its descendants) compresses the memory-constrained state of a long-context model by ranking tokens on accumulated attention mass, treated here as signal energy, and keeping the heaviest. On schema-dense input streams such as nested JSON, this score acts as a non-stationary filter that disproportionately retains noise: a non-content sink role (delimiters or whitespace) carries an order of magnitude more energy than any content role, and structural KEY tokens are over-retained at roughly 1.8x the rate of the answer-carrying VALUE tokens, collapsing exact-match accuracy from 88% to 0% at a 5% budget as the signal-to-noise ratio of the retained state degrades. A counterfactual experiment establishes that suppressing KEY tokens is the best deployable filter. Our retraining-free, role-conditional allocation over SnapKV's windowed score, governed by a single tuned hyperparameter, closes 63-98% of the H2O gap at sub-20% budgets and, at higher budgets, modestly matches or exceeds full-cache accuracy – a small, seed-sensitive denoising effect (borderline significant at B=0.50; not distinguishable from zero at B=0.30 over four seeds). A 15 MB linear role probe supplies these labels at negligible inference cost, though matching parser-level downstream accuracy remains open.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

BARS: Benign-Anchored Ranking and Selection for False Alarm Reduction in Network Intrusion Detection

False alarms remain a major barrier to deploying network intrusion detection systems (NIDS). In high-volume environments, even a sub-1% false positive rate can generate tens of thousands of daily alerts. Filter-based feature selection is attractive because it operates upstream of the classifier and adds no inference-time cost. However, classical filters use class-symmetric criteria that ignore the asymmetry of intrusion detection, where benign traffic defines the baseline and attacks are deviations from it. A recent class-asymmetric filter, Classwise Mean Deviation (CMD), addresses this issue but anchors its score to a global mean that shifts toward attack distributions under class imbalance, weakening the deviations it aims to capture. We propose Benign-Anchored Ranking and Selection (BARS), a two-stage filter that replaces CMD's global anchor with the benign-class mean and applies an order-preserving decorrelation step. We evaluate BARS on CICIDS2017, CICDDoS2019, and UNSW-NB15 using feature budgets k = {5, 10, 20, 30, 40}. On attack-majority datasets, where global-anchor bias is strongest, BARS reduces false positive rate relative to CMD by 15.4% on UNSW-NB15 at k = 20 and by 21% to 23% on CICDDoS2019 at small feature budgets while preserving true positive rate and macro-F1. On benign-majority data, BARS and CMD converge, consistent with the theoretical limit where global- and benign-anchored scores coincide. BARS reduces false alarms by up to 32% while maintaining similar detection rates, with larger gains under stronger imbalance. Ablation results show that the two stages provide complementary benefits and select a consistent set of robust features. BARS retains linear-time scoring and a low memory footprint, making it suitable for resource-constrained deployments.
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