Papers

Human cognition does not separate understanding and generation. A teacher at a whiteboard speaks and draws $\textit{together}$, each modality reshapes the other. In this paper, we bring this coupled loop to artificial systems. Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) are ideally suited to this task, yet existing samplers either decode text and image interleavedly or independently update them in parallel branches that share only previous-step history, but not the other modality's latest decisions $\textit{within}$ the same step; combined with MDMs' inability to remask, cross-modal contradictions are neither detected nor repaired. We introduce $\textbf{Self-Correcting Coupled Markov Jump Processes (SC-CMJP)}$, a framework in which one modality's transition rates are functionals of the other modality's confidence score, as weighted by cross-modal attention. Furthermore, a remasking jump retracts commitments the moment cross-modal evidence turns against them. In conjunction with SC-CMJP, we introduce $\texttt{CO}_\texttt{2}\texttt{Jump}$ (Self-$\underline{\text{CO}}$rrecting $\underline{\text{CO}}$upled $\underline{\text{Jump}}$), a novel training-free single-pass sampler for joint multimodal geneneration. For training and evaluation purposes, we have created and will release three large-scale joint multimodal generation corpora: $\text{JEdit-1M}$, $\text{JMaze-200K}$, $\text{JNono-200K}$, with matching in- and out-of-distribution benchmarks. $\texttt{CO}_\texttt{2}\texttt{Jump}$ achieves best joint performance for image understanding and editing as well as visual reasoning (maze and nonogram solving). The performance of the sampler scales monotonically with the number of denoising steps, evidence that the benefits of cross-modal coupling $\textit{compound}$ across the trajectory. Project page: https://coupled-jump.github.io

Safe reinforcement learning typically enforces safety by bounding expected cumulative costs, a criterion that often fails to detect rare but catastrophic tail events. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces SteinGate, a boundary-aware distributional safety certificate that replaces fragile tail fitting with a robust consistency check using Kernelized Stein Discrepancy while accounting for boundary atoms induced by clipped costs. SteinGate evaluates whether observed policy rollout costs remain consistent with a safe reference distribution, providing a non-parametric safety certificate. This certificate is used to dynamically adapt the learning regime: favoring reward-improving policy updates when rollouts remain consistent with the safe reference and switching to recovery behavior when the cost tail deviates. Experiments on continuous-control benchmarks demonstrate that SteinGate significantly reduces both the frequency and severity of constraint violations during training while maintaining competitive returns relative to state-of-the-art baselines.

We address the problem of safely training an agent policy and deploying a good and safe policy, in settings where the environment dynamics are unknown and no suitable reward function is available. In the context of safety-critical environments, we consider traditional reinforcement learning impractical and resort to the resource of human input. We introduce DROPJ, a human-centred method for both safe training and deployment. We first learn a world model (a learned simulator) from a dataset of prior real-world trajectories. A human then plays the game in this learned simulator to extract several informative simulated trajectories. From these, we sample pairs of simulated trajectory segments and elicit from a human their preference over these segments, as well as a reason (justification) for their choice. We then train a reward model from these justified preferences and use it, together with the world model, to directly deploy the agent using model predictive control. Running real-user experiments, we find that generating informative simulated trajectories from a user significantly reduces the computational cost during training compared to other strategies, and can also improve the performance during deployment. In the context of training within a learned simulator, we show that the use of preferences rather than other types of feedback substantially improves the performance during deployment. We further demonstrate that safety justifications accompanying preferences can significantly enhance safety or prioritise user-prescribed aspects of safety associated with them during deployment.

Sign language is a primary communication channel for millions of Deaf and hard-of-hearing people, yet text-to-signer video generation remains costly because video diffusion models are expensive to train and evaluate. This paper presents Text2Sign, a text-conditioned diffusion model for short sign-language clips that runs on a single NVIDIA L4 GPU. It combines a frozen vision-language text encoder with a 3D encoder-decoder and factorized spatiotemporal attention to reduce the cost of full-video attention while preserving motion coherence. We compare convolution-only and transformer-style backbones, frozen pretrained and task-specific text encoders, and factorized versus full attention. On a signer-disjoint How2Sign split, the best short-run ablation reaches a validation loss of 0.0648, while a longer-run checkpoint reaches 0.00999. On a compact evaluation slice, the latter achieves an SSIM of $0.2403 \pm 0.0238$, a PSNR of $15.11 \pm 0.42$ dB, and temporal consistency of $1.0000 \pm 0.0000$ using 8-step DDIM sampling with a guidance scale of 5.0. It generates a 32-frame, $64 \times 64$ clip in 12.60 seconds, or 2.54 frames per second, with peak inference memory of 3.12 GB. A held-out denoising audit shows only weak prompt sensitivity: removing text increases late-timestep loss from 0.9875 to 0.9891, while shuffled prompts perform similarly to correct prompts. Frozen text conditioning therefore improves short-budget validation loss, but prompt-specific separation remains limited. The system is restricted to low-resolution, short clips and lacks expert linguistic evaluation, so it should be viewed as a single-GPU research baseline rather than a complete sign-language production system. Code is available at https://github.com/xiaruize0911/text2sign.

Generative molecular models can support early drug discovery by proposing new candidate compounds de novo. In practice, useful candidates must balance target-relevant activity, physicochemical properties, and other multiparameter design constraints. However, standard metrics commonly used to evaluate molecular generators only weakly reflect whether the generated compounds are medicinally plausible and suitable for downstream computation. This can produce an incomplete view of model performance and inefficient use of computational resources. We introduce HEDGEHOG, a unified six-stage filtration benchmark that is constructed as a hit identification workflow: (i) preprocessing; (ii) physicochemical descriptor screening; (iii) structural alerts and graph-sanity checks; (iv) synthesis feasibility; (v) docking; and (vi) three-dimensional pose and interaction checks. We evaluated 22 generative models in a KRAS G12D case study, using three runs of 1,000 requested generation attempts per model. The models showed different patterns of attrition, and final survival ranged from 0 to 127 molecules per run. None of the standard metrics showed a significant association with final survival after correction for multiple testing. HEDGEHOG provides a reproducible benchmark for evaluating molecular generative models by measuring molecule survival through chemical filters. The framework identifies stage-wise failure modes across generator classes and provides a practical basis for developing molecular generators better aligned with early drug discovery.

Structured pruning is a hardware-friendly way to compress LLMs, but it is mostly validated on multiple-choice recognition tasks, while the same compressed checkpoints can collapse on the free-form generation that deployment actually requires. Two observations trace this gap. First, greedy pass@$1$ nearly vanishes after compression, yet pass@$k$ recovers substantially under repeated sampling: useful generations are demoted, not erased. Second, the recoverable regime fails mainly through suffix repetition. Recovery should therefore train on the compressed model's own on-policy states with dense token-level supervision, which On-Policy Distillation (OPD) provides by reusing the pre-compression model as a frozen teacher. However, long on-policy rollouts spend early recovery budget on low-information repetitive suffixes, delaying loss descent. To mitigate this waste, we propose \shortopd, a short-to-long OPD schedule that detects teacher-confirmed repetitive suffixes, treats the surviving prefix as each rollout's effective length, and allocates future rollout budgets to the effective lengths the policy can currently use. Across math, code, and open-ended generation, \shortopd\ raises the compressed model's score to about $9\times$ its unrecovered value and $1.6$–$4.4\times$ standard recovery recipes (SFT w/o KD, KD, and SeqKD), and it matches a fixed $8192$-token rollout horizon within two points using a quarter of the training time ($8.5$ vs.\ $35.9$ hours) and $71\%$ fewer rollout tokens. We hope this recipe helps move structured pruning beyond marginal gains on perplexity and multiple-choice benchmarks, a step closer to deployment-ready generation quality.

Inferring gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from single-cell transcriptomic data is crucial for biological discovery, yet existing approaches suffer from a fundamental misalignment with real-world needs. Researchers typically seek a small set of high-confidence regulatory interactions for experimental validation, often involving previously unseen genes. However, current benchmarks rely on transductive splits with global classification metrics, while prevailing models struggle to generalize under inductive settings. To bridge this gap, we reformulate GRN inference as an inductive, ranking-centric graph completion problem and introduce \benchmark, a new benchmark that incorporates an inductive gene-holdout split together with knowledge graph completion metrics to better evaluate top-ranked predictions. Building on this, we propose \method, the first co-evolutionary discrete diffusion framework that jointly models biologically coherent discretized gene expression states and regulatory interactions for robust inductive generalization and improved top-ranked regulatory discovery. We further introduce TF-ALL Subgraph Sampling (TASS) for scalable training. Extensive experiments on {\benchmark} show that {\method} establishes new state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing methods in novel regulatory discovery, and ablation studies further verify the effectiveness of our design.

In standard federated learning systems, the parameter server broadcasts the global model to the participating devices in every iteration. Motivated by the temporal correlation between consecutive global models, differential coding can be applied to global model dissemination to reduce the information magnitude, thereby enabling communication with fewer quantization bits. However, due to wireless link failures, devices may occasionally miss differential updates and consequently fail to reconstruct the global model. As a result, they either continue local training based on an outdated model or remain idle until the next full-model broadcast becomes available. To address this challenge, we propose a mixed-timescale differential coding (MTDC) scheme that performs differential coding at two different levels by adjusting the reference model. With MTDC, a device can reconstruct the latest global model between two full-model broadcasts even if it misses a differential update. We provide a convergence analysis that motivates the design of an age-aware variant of MTDC, along with a device scheduling policy to further improve communication efficiency. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed MTDC schemes achieve superior learning performance compared to baseline methods under similar communication resource budgets in the presence of downlink transmission failures.

Small language models (SLMs) have shown promise for zero-shot molecular property prediction from SMILES strings, yet they often suffer from structural blindness because sequence representations under-specify key graph-topological cues. We propose a modular Context-Augmented Prompting framework that enables agentic tool use at inference time: a trained GNN expert model provides a predictive hint with confidence, and a GNN extracts an instance-specific explanatory subgraph (e.g., a subgraph SMILES and an accompanying explanatory paragraph). We evaluate three commonly used SLMs on MUTAG and Tox21 under five prompting configurations ranging from SMILES-only to using all available tools at hand. Across two datasets, enriching prompts with graph-derived context yields substantial accuracy gains, often exceeding 25% relative improvement and up to 74% on Tox21. We further validate the functional relevance of the extracted motifs via a necessity-based edge-drop intervention. Despite the observed gains, a persistent gap remains to specialized GNN models, highlighting both the value and limits of text-conditioned reasoning for molecular structure.

Since the paradigm centered on convolutional neural networks and recurrent architectures was established in 2020, the fundamental backbone networks for audio-visual navigation have undergone no essential changes for more than five years, making them inadequate to support efficient representation of dynamic multimodal sequences. This paper proposes Samba(A Hybrid Mamba for Audio-Visual Navigation). It uses the adaptive selection-enabled Mamba State Encoder (M-SE) to replace conventional GRUs for temporal aggregation, and constructs an Audio Mamba Encoder (AME) to remedy the limitations of convolutional operators in capturing global time-frequency dependencies in spectrograms. Experiments demonstrate that Samba exhibits exceptional generalization performance when facing unheard sound sources and unseen scenes. On the Matterport3D dataset, it improves the navigation success rate (SR) by 11.3% compared with existing state-of-the-art models, and the performance gain is even more pronounced on the Replica dataset, which features finer scene structures. Such modernized architectural reconstruction unlocks stronger embodied representation capabilities at a lower computational cost, thereby providing a highly robust technical pathway for paradigm evolution in the field of audio-visual navigation.

Real-world traffic data exhibit heterogeneous spatial correlations and nonlinear temporal dynamics, posing substantial challenges for accurate spatio-temporal forecasting. Existing approaches have developed increasingly sophisticated graph, attention, and decomposition architectures, while the influence of the underlying nonlinear function approximator has received comparatively less attention. In this work, we propose STKAN, a spatio-temporal forecasting architecture that introduces Taylor-polynomial Kolmogorov–Arnold Network modules into spatial and temporal token mixing. STKAN first constructs high-level spatial representations through a learnable soft node-group assignment mechanism, applies group-wise spatial mixing, and subsequently models temporal dependencies over the compressed sequence. Spatial and temporal self-attention layers are further employed to capture long-range interactions. Experiments on five traffic forecasting benchmarks show that STKAN achieves competitive performance and performs better than the evaluated MLP-based variant in the tested settings. These results suggest that the design of nonlinear function approximators can serve as a useful complement to architectural design in spatio-temporal forecasting.

The experimental reconstruction of the 3D two-photon momentum density (TPMD) via angular correlation of electron-positron annihilation radiation (ACAR) is a particularly useful method for studying material Fermi surfaces. It does not rely on low temperatures, UHV conditions, or strong magnetic fields, and enables the study of the spin-resolved electronic structure of materials. Yet, it remains a challenging inverse problem. Typically, 10^8 positron annihilation events are measured for 3–6 projections of the TPMD at different angles. The standard reconstruction approach is an ACAR adaptation of Cormack's method (the MCM) that leverages the inherent symmetry in the crystal's structure. However, the poor signal-to-noise ratio means collecting data of sufficient quality for Fermi surface studies can take months per sample. We present DeepCormack, a family of data-driven model-based reconstruction algorithms that augments the MCM by integrating supervised deep-learning models (CNN, MLP, and UNet) at various stages. To overcome the lack of large experimental training sets, we propose a method which leverages singular value decomposition with dynamic mode decomposition to generate realistic synthetic TPMD volumes, requiring only a single reference momentum density computed via density functional theory. On test data, DeepCormack improves reconstruction quality over MCM by about 8.5 dB PSNR at 200M counts and remains stable at reduced counts, enabling significantly faster acquisition times. Generalisation to experimental data depends strongly on how well the training distribution from the reference momentum density matches the sample. We therefore recommend pairing DeepCormack with a DFT calculation of the target material to create sample-specific training data. Our proposed method offers either much higher quality reconstructions, or enables significantly faster ones, on the order of weeks.

Self-improving autonomous agents are moving from research prototypes to deployed systems. The primary goal is controllable evolution, or adaptation, from experience with minimal or even no human input. This survey frames modern self-improving agents as adaptive systems that convert experience into accumulated capability gains. We offer a system-level framework that represents a modern agent as a configuration coupling a foundation model with an operational scaffold of prompts, memory, tools, and control logic. Within this framework, self-improvement is formalized as a self-induced update operator that obtains and commits updates to model parameters or scaffold components. We organize prior work by update target and by the signals that drive change, then review applications and discuss evaluation, before closing with open problems and future directions. For convenience, we track technical updates on https://github.com/selfimproving-agent/awesome-Self-Improving-Agents.

Knowledge tracing (KT) aims to predict students' future performance by modeling their evolving knowledge states from historical interactions. Existing KT methods usually treat the raw interaction sequence as a unified behavioral process, overlooking the phase-specific nature of learning behaviors. Our preliminary observations show that students are more likely to correctly answer previously failed knowledge concepts after sufficient practice, suggesting a transition from ability-building to proficiency-oriented learning. Motivated by this, we propose Phase-Aware Knowledge Tracing (PAKT), a KT framework that decomposes student interactions into ability and proficiency phases based on the tailored decomposition mechanism. To effectively exploit the decomposed sequences, we design a multi-branch Transformer with a type-aware readout module to jointly capture phase-specific and holistic knowledge states. We further provide a causal analysis to reveal the confounding bias caused by entangling complex learning behaviors in phase-agnostic KT models. Extensive experiments on six public benchmarks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms representative baselines, with a maximum AUC gain of 1.33% and an average gain of 0.82%.

Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF) is pivotal for localized and extreme weather prediction over key regions. Despite efforts to exploit look-back windows, existing methods show limited accuracy gains and struggle with extreme events and error accumulation. These limitations stem from overreliance on short-term patterns, which are insufficient to capture chaotic weather dynamics, especially under partial observations. To address this problem, we propose a novel Triaxial State Space Model (TSSM) with a history-enhanced Temporal-VariableHistorical paradigm, which incorporates period-aligned historical weather data to compensate for long-term, large-scale periodic, and full-window weather patterns beyond the temporal lookback window. Specifically, TSSM stacks historical samples into period-aligned batches, where forecasting is causally supported by historical and current observations. Temporal, variable, and historical scanning are designed to capture axial temporal dependencies, variable correlations, and historical evolution. This structure is hierarchically shared to model seasonal to extreme events while alleviating misalignment across historical patterns. TSSM achieves SOTA performance on Weather-5K, the largest station weather dataset to date, with 10% and 61% gains in accuracy and extreme event metrics, and obtains 95% best or second-best results on human-involved datasets. Its advantages are more pronounced in long-horizon and iterative forecasting, reaching a 37.5% gain at 240h and up to 103.5% under a 48h times 5 iterative setting. Moreover, TSSM retains > 90% performance under up to 80% missing observations, compared with < 43% for baselines, demonstrating robustness and practical potential for reliable GSWF in global in-situ observation networks.

When one ball strikes another, then another, video models should predict the consequences of each bounce. In controlled experiments on multi-ball hard-sphere dynamics, we find that the performance of standard bidirectional video diffusion degrades as the causal chain lengthens, even when provided more denoising steps. In a length-matched single-ball control, where ball-ball interactions are absent, the degradation largely disappears, isolating dependent-event structure rather than video length as the cause. Across intervention studies, methods that increase effective serial computation improve performance disproportionately, including autoregressive/blockwise generation and architectural depth. We identify this pattern as the seriality gap: a mismatch between tasks requiring growing serial computation and video diffusion models whose denoising loop does not provide scalable serial compute. We then prove that, for deterministic video prediction, denoising steps do not add serial computation beyond the backbone, indicating a structural obstacle for video diffusion on serial reasoning and simulation tasks.

We study online control of a known linear dynamical system with adversarial costs and bounded disturbances, measuring regret against a general class of benchmark policies. We introduce counterfactual tracking, which separates the challenge of learning from the challenge of controlling the system. An online learner builds a reference trajectory by selecting or averaging the trajectories that the benchmark policies would have generated under the realized costs and disturbances, and a corrective law steers the system toward that reference. Charging each change in the reference its recovery cost (the cost of steering the system onto the new reference) reduces the problem to online learning with switching costs. Conversely, under additional natural assumptions, we show that this reduction is tight: the two problems have the same minimax regret up to a system-dependent factor, uniformly over horizons and policy classes. The reduction gives sharp regret guarantees for policy classes beyond standard finite-memory parameterizations. For a class of $N$ possibly nonlinear or history-dependent policies, it achieves $O(\sqrt{T\log N})$ regret over $T$ rounds, provided their trajectories remain within a bounded distance of one another and recovery costs are bounded. For the full $\ell_1$ ball of disturbance-response controllers, it achieves $O(\sqrt{T\log T})$ regret, which is minimax optimal in $T$, without assuming a common decay rate for disturbance effects. The framework also improves the best known regret bounds for linear state-feedback policies.

Training robust autonomous driving agents requires a simulator fast enough for reinforcement learning at scale, realistic enough to ground behavior in real-world map structure, and diverse enough to cover the safety-critical long tail that logged data rarely contains. We present TerraZero, a procedural driving simulator and self-play training stack that meets these goals. A configurable C engine runs simulation on the CPU and policy inference on the GPU over a zero-copy path, sustaining 1.3M agent-steps per second on a single server-grade GPU, far faster than existing object-level simulators, while keeping fidelity lighter single-agent systems omit: heterogeneous agents, multiple dynamics models, and full traffic-rule enforcement. TerraZero uses logged data only as a source of real-world map geometry, populating each map with randomized rule-based road users and signal controllers and randomizing agent dynamics, rewards, and sizes per episode, so one map yields an effectively unbounded set of scenarios. Every reported policy trains from scratch by reinforcement learning alone, with zero human demonstrations, no imitation, no logged trajectories, and no fallback planner at inference, on a compute-efficient self-play recipe scaled across GPUs. The policies generalize zero-shot across cities and datasets, including emergent left-hand-traffic driving without explicit supervision. As an ego policy, a single checkpoint is, to our knowledge, the first fully learned policy to top both val14 and the interactive long-tail InterPlan suite. On Waymo Open Sim Agents realism the same recipe outperforms other demonstration-free methods and is competitive with the strongest reference-anchored self-play method. One stack serves both roles: state-of-the-art demonstration-free driving policies across dynamics for cars and trucks, and sim agents that jointly control vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists.

Many nonlinear physical systems exhibit an initial transient phase in which perturbations grow before nonlinear interactions lead to a statistically steady state. While this saturated regime is of primary interest, direct numerical simulations must resolve the full transient dynamics before reaching it, incurring significant computational cost. In Computational Fluid Dynamics, reduced-order approaches such as Large Eddy Simulation mitigate computational cost by modeling small-scale dynamics, enabling tractable approximations of turbulent flows. In contrast, for systems such as gyrokinetics, comparably effective closures for the full dynamics are not generally available, and high-fidelity simulations remain necessary. Existing surrogate modeling approaches for these systems are autoregressive, hence they suffer from accumulating error. We instead propose to bypass explicit time evolution by directly modeling the distribution of saturated states under an ergodicity assumption, stating that ensemble averages over samples are equivalent to time averages of a single long simulation. We introduce GyroFlow, a latent generative model that directly estimates steady-state statistics of gyrokinetic turbulence in 5D phase space, without resolving the transient phase. GyroFlow generates saturated snapshots from noise, conditioned on dimensionless operating parameters and outperforms autoregressive, reduced-order, and other generative approaches, while providing substantial speedup. To evaluate generation quality we propose FGyD, a distributional metric computed in the latent space of a pretrained gyrokinetic model, and show that it correlates with downstream flux accuracy and solver convergence. Finally, GyroFlow can be used to warm-start the numerical code used to produce the data.

A growing family of indices scores how predictable a series is from its spectrum. Practitioners increasingly read these scores as answering a different question: whether adding context, a longer lookback, a retrieval plug-in, or a pretrained model, will help. These are not the same question. The value of context is a property of the operating point, not of the series. Any index built from the power spectrum is invariant under phase randomization, whereas the beyond-second-order value that retrieval and foundation models supply is not, because a phase-randomized series is asymptotically Gaussian. We state this as an impossibility result and isolate it with surrogate pairs that fix the spectrum and the marginal by construction. We then give a label-free, configuration-level diagnostic, the coverage deficit, whose principal term measures beyond-spectrum structure as the gain of analog over linear prediction. On seven benchmarks the prediction holds: window-keyed retrieval's value collapses across surrogate pairs (ECL median $+33\%\!\to\!-35\%$, $p{<}10^{-40}$) while every spectral index stays frozen; a foundation model's value splits into a surviving second-order part and a small beyond-linear margin that collapses; a longer linear window's value survives. Leave-one-dataset-out, the structure term predicts the sign of beyond-spectrum value where the spectral indices trail it, and the reverse holds for the second-order mechanism. We introduce no new forecaster; the contribution is the distinction, a controlled comparison, and a diagnostic for the deployment decision. Code: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/SINE

A watermark in a generative model's output is usually asked only whether a text is machine-made. The same mark can do more: attribute it to the user who produced it, extract a hidden payload, or localize the part that survives editing. These form a forensic ladder, and we ask what each rung costs in the sample length $n$. One object organizes the answers. Let $S$ be the secret the mark carries (a user's identity or payload), and let the information profile $\nu(t)=I(S;X_t\mid X_{<t})$ record how much the $t$-th token reveals about $S$ given the earlier ones. Its total mass pays for attribution and extraction; how that mass is spread pays for localization; and detection alone is paid for not by information but by presence, the distance from the marked to the unmarked distribution. The literature's two quality models, a mark subtle on every token and one that stamps a few tokens loudly, are two incomparable ways of capping this profile. Our main theorem settles the ladder's entropy column. For statistically distortion-free schemes, attributing a text to one of $N$ users costs $\Theta(\log N/h)$ tokens over every stationary-ergodic source of entropy rate $h$, sharp to a $(1+o(1))$ factor: to our knowledge the first tight entropy-rate law for multi-user attribution (via exact alignment). The natural collision-counting analysis overcharges without bound; only a decoder thresholding each candidate by its own realized surprisal attains the rate while almost never implicating an innocent user. A matching converse makes the law two-sided, and extraction of an $\ell$-bit payload costs $\Theta(\ell/h)$. Two gaps are real, not modeling artifacts: a $\Theta(\log N)$-token window in which a text is provably machine-made yet unattributable, and a footprint-resolution uncertainty principle. Experiments on GPT-2, Pythia-410M, and Qwen2.5 recover the predicted constants.

Data assimilation estimates the state of a dynamical system from model forecasts and incoming observations. Many observation mechanisms, however, are many-to-one, implicit, non-smooth, or accessible only through simulation, and need not provide the residual structures or likelihood guidance required by existing ensemble filters. We introduce implicit data assimilation, in which the analysis law is defined as an energy tilt of the forecast distribution. We then propose the Ensemble Controlled-flow Filter (EnCF), which realizes this update through a stochastic controlled flow and learns the observation-dependent control by adjoint matching from terminal energy gradients. For simulator-defined observations, EnCF-LF learns a surrogate conditional energy from samples and applies the same controlled-flow solver. We prove ideal exactness, derive a one-step error decomposition, and establish non-accumulation of local errors under filter stability. Numerical results show that Kalman-type filters remain preferable for smooth additive-Gaussian observations, while the proposed methods are better suited to non-Gaussian, many-to-one, multimodal, and implicit observation models.

Frozen small code LLMs are deployed locally, yet the information guiding a retry after a failed attempt is still measured without placebo controls in the self-repair literature. We treat a failed program as a conjecture and an execution counterexample as an oracle-relative refutation, and introduce PoPE (Popperian Placebo-controlled Evaluation): a methodology for measuring whether evidence that falsifies LLM-generated code can be used operationally by that same model. In PoPE, error content is paired with channel-specific placebos that keep the predeclared scaffold while ablating task-relevant content or deranging the task-error assignment. Frozen small code models (0.5-1.5B) are evaluated under preregistered rules through a prompt channel and a weight channel (small-data adapter training), with four generations per arm-unit pair. In the prompt channel, public-tier screening unlocked 12 units under the content-ablated form placebo versus 10 under the live error-pattern arm on a 40-unit resistant band; the result was recorded as mechanism-null. In the weight channel, an 8-8 tie was observed between the error-content adapter and the intervention-free baseline (p=1.0), while the SHA-deranged placebo adapter stayed ahead with 10 unlocks; content-attributable superiority was not confirmed. These results do not constitute evidence of equivalence or non-inferiority. Equivalence was not tested separately. Findings are restricted to the public-tier screening endpoint; hidden-tier confirmation was deferred by design. We read this not as compiled criticism disappearing as information, but as the loss of its external role in testing a new conjecture: when a representation learned from the oracle is written back into the generation state, testing is replaced by conditioning. No working JEPA-RL controller is claimed. PoPE is presented as a placebo-controlled, retestable measurement standard.

Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables. Existing evaluations, however, often rely on perfect forecast assumptions or simplistic perturbations that do not reflect these characteristics. This study presents a physically constrained robustness evaluation framework based on simulation, using virtual PV power as a controlled response variable to isolate the propagation of input uncertainty from confounders at the plant level. Six representative machine learning and deep sequence models, including PatchTST, GRU, N-HITS, and LightGBM, are evaluated under dynamic NWP perturbations with heteroscedasticity modulated by clear-sky conditions and Erbs reconstruction that preserves radiation consistency. The results show that sequence models provide stronger noise filtering and temporal resilience than a strong tabular baseline under medium to high disturbance regimes. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Integrated Gradients (IG) further support a feature reallocation tendency at the case level, in which predictive reliance shifts from corrupted future forecasts toward more stable historical observations and deterministic physical priors. A Pareto analysis of accuracy under clean conditions, robustness, and computational latency then translates these findings into engineering implications for robustness assessment and model selection under forecast uncertainty.

We study the online binary sequential calibration problem. A recent breakthrough by \citet{dagan2024breaking} overcomes the classical \(T^{2/3}\) barrier for calibration error. Building on this result, we present an efficient randomized forecaster that achieves an expected calibration error \(O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})\) for some constant \(\varepsilon>0\). Our forecaster combines the SPR-Calibration procedure \citep{dagan2024breaking} with an outer Blackwell-style correction layer. The SPR-Calibration procedure controls calibration with respect to a surrogate sequence of conditional-mean estimates, while the correction layer controls the additional error incurred when these surrogates are used to approximate the true outcomes. The analysis decomposes the total calibration error into the surrogate calibration error and the residual discrepancy between the surrogate sequence and the true outcomes. The former is bounded by the SPR-Calibration guarantee in \citet{dagan2024breaking}, and the latter is controlled using a quadratic potential argument together with the sparsity of the SPR-Calibration forecaster.

Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition. Non-linear observations, non-Gaussian likelihoods, black-box information, and global constraints all induce intractable conditional laws, requiring bespoke, model-specific constructions. We introduce LatentFlow, a single framework for conditioning stochastic processes, with no learned neural approximations and no training. Our starting point is to write the stochastic process as the deterministic image of a tractable latent innovation, $f_0 = T_{\vartheta}(\xi_0)$, with $\xi_0$ sampled from a simple reference distribution. This reduces process-level conditioning to latent-space inference: pull the likelihood back through $T_{\vartheta}$, sample the resulting latent law with a tractable guided probability flow, and push the samples forward. This construction is provably exact at the level of the target law; in practice, approximation enters only through finite terminal noising, Monte Carlo guidance, and time discretisation of the continuous-time dynamics, each of which is explicit and systematically reducible. As LatentFlow is training-free, conditioning reduces to solving a single reverse-time SDE. This enables conditional sampling in seconds on a single desktop CPU across model classes that have never shared a scalable method: classical spatial priors, nonlinear stochastic dynamics, mechanistic models from the physical and life sciences, stochastic PDEs, heavy-tails and extremes, point and discrete-state processes, and neural or simulator-defined processes.

In this work, we introduce CoCo, a loss function aimed at learning normalized and well-structured representations. The proposed loss encourages intra-class collapse and inter-class contrast while preserving sufficient flexibility for neural networks to approximate geometrically optimal embeddings with large angular separation between classes. We provide a theoretical analysis positioning CoCo with respect to related objectives such as dot regression and cross-entropy, showing that the new proposed loss benefits from closer initialization to the optimal configuration, more informative gradients, and stronger incentives for class-wise representation collapse. Extensive experiments on diverse tabular datasets from the OpenML-CC18 benchmark show that CoCo achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art methods, including kernel SVM, Random Forest, dot regression, and cross-entropy-based neural networks. In addition, both theoretical arguments and empirical analyses demonstrate that the proposal promotes tighter class clustering and faster convergence. These results highlight CoCo loss as an effective objective for learning discriminative representations while maintaining competitive predictive performance.

We show the Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RHMC) algorithm has accelerated mixing time guarantees for sampling from log-concave probability distributions. RHMC proceeds by repeatedly simulating the continuous-time Hamiltonian dynamics for some random integration times, and resetting the velocity to be an independent Gaussian random variable between each simulation. We show that when the target distribution is log-concave and satisfies an $\alpha$-Talagrand inequality (for example, if the target distribution is $\alpha$-strongly log-concave), if we use a random integration time from either the triangular or the exponential distribution with mean $\Theta(\alpha^{-1/2})$, then RHMC converges exponentially fast in KL divergence, and the total integration time to reach error $\varepsilon$ in KL divergence scales as $O(\alpha^{-1/2} \log(\varepsilon^{-1}))$. We also show that when the target distribution is log-concave, if we use a sequence of random integration times from the triangular distribution with exponentially increasing means, then the total integration time to reach error $\varepsilon$ in KL divergence scales as $O(\varepsilon^{-1/2})$. Our analysis relies on a bound on the average KL divergence along Hamiltonian dynamics, which is inspired by an analogous result on accelerated optimization methods based on Hamiltonian dynamics.

Tensegrity form-finding and physical property prediction are fundamental problems in structural mechanics, which aim to determine equilibrium configurations and internal force distributions. These problems are challenging due to strong nonlinearity arising from the coupling between geometry and forces, and the need to satisfy equilibrium, stability, and structural constraints. This paper proposes an energy-based learning approach for clustered tensegrity form finding and physical property prediction. The proposed approach incorporates total potential energy minimization and constitutive relations into the training objective, enabling the prediction of equilibrium nodal configurations and the reconstruction of physical quantities such as member forces and force densities. By integrating energy-based physical losses directly into the learning process, the method promotes physical consistency while combining data-driven learning with physics-based constraints. Numerical experiments on tensegrity prism and lander structures demonstrate accurate prediction of equilibrium configurations and internal forces across different training-data ratios, indicating the potential of the proposed approach for nonlinear tensegrity form finding and structural analysis.

Deep learning systems often fail due to subtle implementation faults that alter training behavior. Recent work has studied how to detect and diagnose such failures from changes observed across training epochs. However, the software engineering community still lacks a public dataset of per-epoch training runs with documented fault history, feature extraction details, and clear reuse support for fault detection and diagnosis tasks. We present Deep4ge, a controlled benchmark of 14,227 training runs generated from 59 adapted TensorFlow/Keras deep neural network (DNN) programs collected from Stack Overflow. We generated faulty variants using 27 source-code transformations that introduce known faults across seven categories. The dataset contains 9,845 faulty runs and 4,382 correct baseline runs. For each run, we record 4 evaluation metrics and 26 features that measure training behavior at every epoch. These features capture weights, gradients, activations, accuracy and loss trends, learning rate, and hardware use. Deep4ge supports binary fault detection, multi-class fault diagnosis, and early fault prediction from partial training runs. We release the dataset and fault-injection framework at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20337241.