Papers

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as critical decision-making components in high-stakes real-world AI systems, rendering LLM reliability a foremost practical concern. In this paper, we focus on enhancing LLM reliability through selective prediction (SP), a strategy that allows an LLM to only predict for inputs where it is likely to be correct (i.e., coverage) and hence reduce the error rate (i.e., risk) on that portion of inputs – flagging the remaining inputs for future human discretion. In other words, SP improves LLM reliability by balancing the risk-coverage trade-off and enabling seamless human-AI collaboration. To integrate SP into LLMs, we focus on the LLM post-training alignment stage and propose to align LLMs with SP performance metrics, in contrast with existing LLM alignment methods that focus primarily on correctness or calibration metrics. Specifically, we propose a novel alignment framework, Reinforcement Learning for Selection Reward (RLSR), which targets the area under the risk-coverage curve (AURC) – a popular SP performance metric – as its alignment objective. RLSR achieves substantially better risk-coverage trade-off compared to multiple alignment baselines on both in-domain and out-of-domain tasks.

Fine-tuning a single low-rank adapter on many domains at once is multi-task learning: the domains must be co-learned, and how they share the adapter decides whether they help or hurt one another. Most efficient fine-tuning pipelines ignore this and train on a fixed, uniform mixture, leaving two coupled questions unanswered: how much should each domain participate, and which domains should be co-trained given that some transfer positively and others interfere? We show that both answers can be read off cheaply and without labels. A forward pass of the current shared adapter over a small unlabeled probe yields, per domain, a competence signal whose level tracks remaining headroom and whose trajectory tracks learning speed; the drift of these probe representations yields a signed cross-domain affinity that predicts pairwise transfer. We fold both into CoDA, a co-adaptive controller that solves a small entropy-regularized quadratic program on the simplex to set each domain's participation – jointly its loss weight and its share of the sampled data – rewarding high-headroom, still-learning, mutually synergistic domains and damping interfering ones. The controller is forward-only, adds no trainable parameters, and wraps any multi-task LoRA pipeline. Across five heterogeneous domains and two backbones, CoDA improves the average over uniform mixing, learned mixtures, gradient-surgery multi-task optimizers, and online data selection while using half the data, and lowers cross-domain gradient conflict. We prove that the competence signal tracks domain risk, that the participation program has a unique fixed point reached by a contraction, and that its solution performs transfer-aware water-filling; analysis, ablations, and controls corroborate each claim.

We show that projected Adam for online optimization with arbitrary moment decay parameters $\beta_1,\beta_2\in[0,1)$ can have average regret bounded away from zero. A similar result of Reddi-Kale-Kumar from 2018 required $\beta_1<\sqrt{\beta_2}$. Similar to their result, we use a three-periodic sequence of linear functions on $[-1,1]$ with slopes $c,-1,-1$, though we use $c$ slightly larger than $2$. This nonzero average regret result extends to Adam variants such as AdamW, RMSProp, NAdam, Adan, AdaMax, Muon, and to an i.i.d. variant of the three-periodic sequence of slopes for Adam.

Brownian Bridge Diffusion Models (BBDM) offer an appealing framework for image restoration and inverse problems by constructing a stochastic bridge from the clean signal directly to the degraded observation, rather than to pure noise. Despite their promise, the choice of bridge schedule is typically inherited from heuristics, and a principled analytical framework for schedule design has been lacking. In this work, we develop such a framework by offering a novel analysis of BBDM reverse dynamics under a Mixture-of-Gaussians (MoG) prior. This setting yields a closed-form ideal posterior and a corresponding MMSE denoiser, while the BBDM-induced reconstruction law is captured analytically through a tractable surrogate. Building on these expressions, we formulate two complementary schedule-design objectives: a Wasserstein criterion targeting perceptual quality and an MSE criterion targeting reconstruction fidelity. Our work exposes an inherent tradeoff between the two and proves the existence of universal schedules for both that are independent of the degradation and prior. Extensive experiments on controlled MoG settings confirm full alignment between theory and practice, and experiments on the FFHQ dataset across inpainting, deblurring, and super-resolution tasks validate the practical value of our schedule-design criteria.

In many machine learning applications, the most relevant items for a query should be efficiently retrieved. The relevance function is usually an expensive similarity model, making the exhaustive search infeasible. A typical solution is to train another model that separately embeds queries and items to a vector space, where similarity is defined via the dot product or cosine similarity. This allows one to search the relevant items through fast approximate nearest neighbor search at the cost of some reduction in quality. To compensate for this reduction, the found items (candidates) are re-ranked by the expensive ranking model. In this paper, we investigate an alternative approach to candidate selection that utilizes the scores of the expensive model to improve the representations of queries and items. The idea is to describe each query (item) by its relevance to a set of support items (queries) and use these new representations to obtain query (item) embeddings. We theoretically prove that such embeddings are powerful enough to approximate any complex similarity model (under mild conditions). We also investigate the choice of support items, which is a crucial ingredient of the proposed approach. The experiments on diverse academic and production datasets illustrate the power of our method.

We present AquaGen, the first all-atom, explicit solvent, periodic-boundary-condition-aware generative model that produces molecular configurations from the Boltzmann distribution at a fraction of the cost of molecular dynamics (MD). This is in contrast with existing generative models that remove degrees of freedom by operating on coarse-grained, vacuum, or implicit solvent systems. Operating at this resolution allows for post-processing through force field energy evaluations and MD simulations, and enables the prediction of relevant properties in a gray-box manner (as ensemble averages of potential energy evaluations over generated samples). We demonstrate the utility of this paradigm on absolute hydration free energy (AHFE), producing estimates 4-10x faster and with comparable accuracy to standard GPU-based MD. By generating uncorrelated samples from alchemical Boltzmann distributions, we create more accurate, interpretable, and refinable ensemble predictions with calibrated uncertainty estimates, unlike regression methods which are entirely black-box predictors. Our approach also yields predictable benefits from increasing train- and test-time compute, realized by scaling model size and generating more samples, respectively. We believe that this approach demonstrates the utility of high-resolution ensemble generation for free energy estimation, with future potential to replace MD in tasks such as the prediction of lipophilicity, membrane permeability, or absolute binding free energy (ABFE) – whose grounding and interpretability may be critical for the development of new drugs and materials.

Graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) propagates a few labels over a similarity graph by minimizing a Dirichlet-type energy. The standard quadratic ($p=2$) energy reduces to a single graph-Laplacian solve, but it degenerates exactly where SSL is most useful when labels are scarce: gathering more unlabeled data drives the $p=2$ estimate to a near-constant function whenever $d\ge2$ (Nadler-Srebro-Zhou). Well-posedness requires the nonlinear $p$-Laplacian energy with $p>d$. Existing solvers reduce this to a sequence of weighted Laplacian solves, but their reference implementations use a direct sparse factorization or ichol-preconditioned CG instead. Plugging a near-linear Laplacian solver is not straightforward: at large $p$ the conductance weights degenerate near flat-gradient edges, making the system nearly singular and causing stagnation without a damped outer iteration. We close this gap. Recasting $p$-Laplacian SSL as a source-form nonlinear Laplacian flow $B\rho_p(B^\top x)=b$ and solving by damped chord-Newton continuation in $p$, every linearized system stays well-conditioned and can be delegated to a near-linear Laplacian engine. On size-scaled graph families the wall-clock is empirically $m^{0.96}$-$m^{1.02}$ per family (approximate Cholesky default), and a pooled fit across 228 SuiteSparse graphs gives $m^{1.19}$ vs.\ $m^{1.45}$ for direct factorization; the solver handles a $6.8\times10^7$-edge social network in minutes. Memory is the binding constraint: Cholesky fill reaches $10$-$280\times$ the graph nonzeros vs.\ our $O(m)$ hierarchy. Against the released FCL solver we are $1.5$-$14\times$ faster at matched accuracy. On MNIST $10$-NN, $p=3$ scores $64\%$ at one label per class vs.\ $36\%$ for $p=2$. Code: https://github.com/orenlivne/np.

Frontier LLMs can perform multi-step reasoning over content-free filler tokens like dots or counting sequences, producing correct answers with no visible chain-of-thought (CoT). This is a limit case for behavioral oversight, where surface tokens carry no information about the underlying reasoning. But hidden from the output is not the same as hidden from us. On four task families (fact retrieval, parallel numeric composition, string manipulation, and in-context computation), two open-weights frontier models (DeepSeek V3, Kimi K2) compute over filler tokens in a legible way: attention routes the question through the filler region to the answer, logit-lens readouts show retrieved facts emerging early and their composition crystallizing in late layers, and KV-cache transplants at filler positions causally swap outputs between examples. We introduce an unsupervised decoding pipeline that takes only hidden states as input and recovers intermediate values with 82-94% accuracy (best LLM judge) across both models and all four tasks, without ground-truth labels or training. Even without a judge, the hidden values are already directly in the pipeline's top-2 tokens 35-85% of the time. The uplift persists whether the filler is prefilled or the model generates the filler itself. On these cleanly decomposable tasks, hidden computation that defeats behavioral CoT monitoring is readable from the residual stream, which suggests that monitorability is a property of the model's full computational trace rather than only its surface tokens.

Mutual information estimation is a central problem in machine learning and statistics; however, existing benchmarks typically evaluate estimators on simplified, low-dimensional distributions, leaving their performance on complex, realistic data largely unexplored. We address this gap with a comprehensive benchmarking framework grounded in a unified copula-theoretic perspective that subsumes existing benchmarks as special cases. Within this framework, we propose two complementary families of tests: a copula-first family that systematically varies ground-truth mutual information, dimensionality, and marginal complexity using synthetic and flow-based transformations; and a marginals-first family that couples real-world image data with controlled dependency structures, extending the classic same-class-pairing paradigm. We use this suite to extensively evaluate three classes of estimators: non-parametric, variational, and generative. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, our results indicate that there is no universal winner: each category can systematically outperform all other estimators under specific setups. By analyzing these cases, we identify fundamental estimation barriers and propose new tests that more effectively stress these specific limitations. We share the open source code at https://github.com/VanessB/mutinfo.

This study aims to predict Tumor, Node, and Metastasis (TNM) stage labels independently, with the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) pathology report as the sixth shared task of SMM4H-HeaRD 2026. The problem is framed as three multi-label classification tasks. We explore both classical and deep learning approaches using Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) features and embeddings from ClinicalBERT, BioBERT, and PubMedBERT. These representations are used with Logistic Regression (LR), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNN), and Wide Residual Networks (WRN). Our results show that individual embeddings perform similarly to the TNM label classification, while their combination improves its predictive ability. WRN achieves AUROC scores of 0.839 (T), 0.8502 (N), and 0.803 (M) with F1-scores of 0.622, 0.702, and 0.9337, respectively, for the training phase. LightGBM with TF-IDF performs best with AUROC scores of 0.9368 (T), 0.9524 (N), and 0.8311 (M) and F1-scores of 0.7559 (T), 0.7384 (N), and 0.7017 (M) during the training phase. Furthermore, the result of the Codabench for the test sets indicates a Macro-F1 score of 0.978, 0.957, and 0.879 for the T, N, and M categories respectively for test set 1; while test set 2 records a Macro-F1 score for T, N, and M is 0.807, 0.767, 1.0 respectively. However, performance declined during the evaluation phase of the test sets, a drop from 0.938 to 0.858 of test set 1 to 2, for the Macro-F1 score across all stages; suggesting limitations in model generalizability, sensitivity to class imbalance, and challenges in processing lengthy clinical documents. Although this study provides an efficient baseline model and a reproducible pipeline, further optimization and validation are required before it can be considered suitable for use in a real-world clinical setting.

World models aim to capture environment dynamics in ways that support perception, reasoning, and action, and have recently become a central direction in Vision-Language-Action-World (VLAW) modeling. Meanwhile, unified vision-language models have demonstrated strong multimodal generation capabilities, yet their potential as world models remains underexplored. In this work, we introduce WorldBagel, a unified VLAW framework built on BAGEL, a modern multimodal unified model, and use it to systematically investigate the role of unification in world modeling. Across multi-task robotic manipulation and cross-domain experiments, WorldBagel consistently outperforms task-specific alternatives and learns action representations that are more structured and semantically aligned with visual and linguistic context. Experiments on LIBERO, Language Table, and Franka show that unification is not only an architectural convenience, but also a key factor in learning effective VLAW models, leading to consistent empirical gains and deeper insights into multimodal world modeling. Code and model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.

In this paper, we propose Adversarial Dynamics Priors (ADP) for perturbation-resilient humanoid locomotion control. Existing motion prior-based methods induce natural motion styles by imitating kinematic motion features, but they do not directly regularize dynamics features, such as CoM motion, centroidal momentum, contact forces, and contact states. To address this limitation, we replace kinematic motion-style feature with selected dynamics features extracted from locomotion trajectories as the target of adversarial regularization. To this end, we use trajectory optimization to construct a reference dataset and train a discriminator to evaluate whether policy-induced temporal windows are consistent with the resulting reference distribution. Without explicit motion tracking, ADP encourages policy rollouts to remain close to the reference support, even after perturbations. Experimental results show that, compared with AMP, the strongest baseline in our evaluation, ADP improves the $80\%$-success impulse threshold ($J_{80}$) by $16.7\%$, while reducing direction-averaged recovery time and velocity tracking error by $47.9\%$ and $35.4\%$, respectively.

Inference-time alignment methods, such as Best-of-$N$, offer a flexible alternative to training-based alignment by using reward models to select high-quality responses generated by a reference LLM. However, the efficacy of these methods is inherently limited by the response quality: if the reference LLM assigns negligible probability to high-reward responses, no selection strategy will succeed in finding aligned outputs. In this work, we propose Best-of-Better-$N$ (BoBN), an in context learning-based generation framework to address this challenge. Our method utilizes retrieval from high-reward examples relevant to the input query and task. Crucially, we introduce a restyling step where retrieved responses are rewritten by the reference LLM to align with the target task's format and style. These restyled examples are used in-context to shift the sampling distribution toward the high-reward region. We analytically characterize how in-context learning shifts the output distribution of pretrained transformers toward the high-reward region, resulting in provable benefits on the target task. We then evaluate BoBN on safety alignment and mathematical reasoning benchmarks across several reference LLMs. BoBN's higher-quality responses enable better performance to be achieved when the number of responses $N$ is fixed, and smaller $N$ required to achieve a target performance.

While skill optimization for autonomous agents has gained traction, existing methods rely on complex pipelines. This leaves a fundamental question unaddressed: What constitutes a minimal viable pipeline for skill optimization, where every component is justified by theory or empirical necessity? We formalize skill optimization via Zeroth-Order (ZO) optimization, mapping classical counterparts (central difference, trust regions) to recent literature. Noting that unlike blind numerical perturbations in classical ZO, skill trajectories serve as interpretable debugging feedback. Grounded in Claude Code philosophy and PAC learning, we establish three principles for convergence and generalization: file-system-based trajectory exploration, consensus attribute mining, and independent validation gating. Eliminating redundancies, we propose SkillOpt-Lite. It accelerates convergence and outperforms full SkillOpt: improving LiveMath by +8.8 points on GPT-5.5 and +25.4 points on GPT-5.4-nano, allowing the nano model to surpass standard GPT-5.4 optimized by SkillOpt. Finally, we integrate our framework into production coding agents like VSCode Copilot, enabling developers to evolve agent skills via one line of vibe. Because our framework treats all agent components simply as standard editable code, this minimal pipeline naturally generalizes to full harness optimization (HarnessOpt). On SpreadsheetBench, HarnessOpt enables GPT-5.4-nano to achieve 0.7758 accuracy, outperforming the larger GPT-5.5 running standard pipelines (0.7620). Code is available at https://github.com/EvolvingLMMs-Lab/SkillOpt-Lite.

LLM agents often degrade over long episodes: as trajectories grow, they revisit explored states, repeat failed actions, and lose strategies that previously worked. Test-time training (TTT) offers a way to adapt model weights to the evolving task state, but existing LLM TTT methods largely adapt once to a fixed input. We study continuous TTT in multi-turn agent episodes, where each update changes the policy that generates later training text. This creates a self-training loop that helps when new trajectory information appears, but can amplify drift when the agent gets stuck and repeatedly trains on similar text. We find that update-text repetition distinguishes these regimes and introduce Agentic Test-Time Training (aTTT), a token-level reweighting method that downweights the loss on tokens appearing in repeated $n$-grams from prior updates while leaving novel tokens fully weighted. To run such updates inside live episodes, we build a concurrent serving system using vLLM's runtime LoRA API, limiting overhead to 1.9$\times$ the no-TTT cost. aTTT improves success by up to 5.0 points on ALFWorld and 4.9 points on SWE-bench Lite. The gains concentrate where models already have task competence but drift over long trajectories, suggesting that aTTT mainly preserves existing competence rather than teaching new abilities.

Routing benchmarks often compare a policy that commits to one model before seeing its response with a hindsight oracle that credits any correct recorded output. Under stochastic decoding these are different decision classes. For success marginals $p_{im}$ under a frozen query–model–decoder–scorer protocol, we distinguish the clairvoyant single-commit ceiling $R_i=\max_m p_{im}$, product-coupling union $U_i^\perp=1-\prod_m(1-p_{im})$, and premium $\Delta_i^\perp=U_i^\perp-R_i$. The marginals alone identify exactly the union interval $[R_i,\min\{1,\sum_m p_{im}\}]$: zero premium is attainable over compatible couplings, not established for an actual deployment. If generation is independent across models, product is the specified protocol's union probability. We audit frozen correctness tensors from 11 open models and 30 archived responses per query–model cell on GSM8K, MATH-500, and GPQA-Diamond. Full-pool display-channel product premiums are 0.371, 3.542, and 5.100 percentage points; the premium intervals from empirical marginals are $[0,0.473]$, $[0,4.787]$, and $[0,7.744]$. Their zero lower endpoints are algebraic. All retained scorers, eight finite-draw paths, and all 2,047 nonempty subpools expose scorer, estimator, and pool sensitivity, not confidence intervals. The GSM8K and GPQA display scorers were developed after limited output inspection. A separate retrospective held-out policy illustration instantiates the policy-specific gap decomposition without establishing new-data generalization. A limited reference-based human check supports scorer agreement only on definite-consensus subsets. Hash-bound evidence supports number checks, not end-to-end reproduction. The contribution is a measurement contract for interpreting oracle gaps conditional on coupling, decision class, scorer, pool, and finite draws, not a population effect or an equal-cost routing gain.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong reasoning and world-knowledge capabilities, yet often struggle to gather information effectively across the multi-turn interactions required in sequential decision-making settings. We introduce Amortised Sequential Information Gathering (ASIG), a fine-tuning approach that amortises Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) into LLM policies via a multi-turn extension of Group Relative Policy Optimisation with an Expected Information Gain reward. Evaluated on the 20 Questions task, ASIG more than doubles the success rate of the 7B base model and reduces inference cost by over $25\times$ relative to BED-LLM, a competitive inference-time baseline. Applied to MediQ, a medical diagnosis benchmark unseen during training, ASIG improves information-seeking performance at the 7B scale, suggesting that the learned strategies can transfer out of distribution. Our findings show that amortising BED into LLM policies provides an effective and computationally efficient approach to sequential information gathering.

Real time location data derived from mobile applications is a powerful tool for addressing various urban challenges, including tourism planning, parking management, bus route optimization, and resource allocation. Besides, it offers invaluable insights for shaping strategic decisions in commercial domains such as location based services, market share analysis, and behavioral profiling. In this expansive study, we aim to address all of the aforementioned challenges by investigating the behaviors and patterns of smartphone users within urban environments, particularly in the domains of tourism, transportation, and retail. Our approach encompasses the development of a sophisticated data platform from inception to implementation, which includes the formulation of use cases, architectural design, and implementation of modules. We employ state of the art techniques and technologies, including data anonymization, ETL pipelines, and utilizing Google BigQuery and Vertex AI for data processing and machine learning model development. A modular architecture based on reusable analytical building blocks was developed to generate data products that support multiple stakeholder driven use cases. Additionally, we apply interactive data visualization techniques via Power BI to facilitate the effective interpretation of analytical findings by stakeholders. The developed models address a wide range of mobility analytics tasks, including mobility profiling, frequent trajectory mining, area of influence analysis, traffic anomaly detection, and origin destination pattern analysis. The results demonstrate the framework's ability to capture user mobility dynamics at fine spatial and temporal resolutions, providing actionable insights for urban planning and strategic business decision making.

The ever-increasing collection of personal data has created mounting pressure to develop technologies that protect sensitive aspects of individual identity. Differential privacy (DP) provides a principled framework with strong formal guarantees and has already achieved practical success. However, releasing high-dimensional data, such as images, has remained elusive: releasing uncompressed privatized data requires significant storage. At the same time, no effective data compression scheme exists that can compress high-resolution data with privacy guarantees. We address this challenge with DP-DiPP, a compression pipeline that combines stochastic codes with diffusion models. DP-DiPP is highly flexible: the practitioner has direct control over the compression rate-privacy-utility tradeoff. As the theoretical backbone, we extend the Poisson private representation (PPR) to encode the outputs of privacy mechanisms. We then combine it with DiffC, a diffusion-based lossy data compression method, to obtain a differentially private image compressor. Our experiments on privatized image classification on CIFAR-10 demonstrate that DP-DiPP significantly outperforms the baseline, achieving a 10-30 times better compression while retaining comparable privacy guarantees and utility.

Agentic AI systems are increasingly used to edit, refine, and repair decision policies, but evaluating these edits is difficult when per-state expert action labels are unavailable. We study this problem in a hotel-pricing simulator where an agentic policy editor receives only region-level diagnostic feedback: summaries of how its price distribution differs from a benchmark policy across time, inventory, and market regions. The editor cannot observe benchmark actions, benchmark source code, reward numbers, or held-out outcomes, and may only propose constrained edits to a target-action table. On 5,000 held-out episodes, a multi-restart LLM editor reaches RevPAR 108.47 (95% CI 107.61 - 109.34), close to the benchmark policy's 108.75 (107.81 - 109.68), with paired gap (LLM minus benchmark) -0.276 and 95% CI [-0.692, 0.146]. A cheap diagnostic projection already recovers much of the revenue (107.90), so the LLM editor's distinctive gain is not raw revenue lift alone: it also reduces episode composition distance from 1.153 to 0.609. This is the strongest non-benchmark repair result. This profile is not explained by restart search alone: non-semantic proposers with up to 2,500 evaluations fall 8.77 - 14.57 RevPAR points short. Nor is it explained by plausible prompt format: a shuffled-diagnostic control breaks region-error correspondence and falls to RevPAR 94.30. The match is genuine but partial. A tree editor achieves stronger pooled alignment, 0.214 versus 0.266, and stronger reference-state D1, 0.328 versus 1.197, yet revenue falls to 98.91. These results show that agentic policy repair should be evaluated by whether diagnostic feedback becomes reliable closed-loop outcome, not by a single behavioral distance.

Policy learning has received substantial attention with the goal of learning policies from observational data for decision-making. A majority of work in this space has focused on developing algorithms for computing policies that minimize regret compared to the optimal policy. However, in many practical settings, there is insufficient data to obtain low regret. As a result, recent work has shifted attention to alternative objectives, most notably, studying whether it is possible to learn an improving policy that statistically significantly outperforms baseline policies. We argue that there is substantial merit in studying a broader range of policy learning problems. When there is insufficient data to learn an improving policy, there may still be useful questions that can be answered. To this end, we provide a mathematical framework for studying the relationships between policy learning problems. We formalize three problems within our framework: beyond the optimal policy problem and the improving policy problem, we also propose the policy existence problem, which aims to determine if an improving policy exists. Within our framework, we show that the policy existence problem reduces to the improving policy problem, which in turn reduces to the optimal policy problem; these reductions prove that each problem is at least as easy as the next one (in sample complexity). A key question remains: is this hardness strict? We provide partial answers. First, the gap between the optimal policy and improving policy problems is strict. For the improving policy and policy existence problems, we prove that a sublinear polynomial gap exists under natural conditions on improving policy learning algorithms. Thus, we may be able to answer questions about the existence of an improving policy even when we cannot find one. These results highlight the value in studying a broader range of policy learning problems.

We propose CaSPECT, a causal spectral clustering framework for discovering causally homogeneous subgroups from observational data. Rather than clustering in covariate space, CaSPECT defines similarity through the topology of a learned directed acyclic graph (DAG); a bootstrap-stabilised PC algorithm recovers the causal skeleton; a novel Orientation Validation Score (OVS) combines PC bootstrap evidence with DirectLiNGAM to orient edges robustly; directed edges are weighted by backdoor-identified average treatment effects estimated via OLS or double machine learning. Chung's directed Laplacian provides a spectral embedding in which individuals close together share the same causal propagation pathways. We establish almost-sure consistency of the full pipeline and validate the method through a controlled simulation study and on LaLonde CPS1, IHDP, and 401(k) datasets, where CaSPECT recovers a positive and statistically significant treatment effect within the causally comparable subpopulation and corrects for severe confounding without requiring a pre-specified propensity score model.

We study how visual information is routed in vision-language models (VLMs). Using causal patching on controlled synthetic and natural datasets, we find that models rely on two distinct pathways to solve visual tasks: A direct pathway, where visual information is retained in image token representations and read out by the final token at later layers, and a text-mediated pathway, where visual information is first transferred to the query tokens and then read out by the final token. Across three visual tasks, we show that pathway selection is task-dependent, and that data distribution and prompt design can also modulate which pathway is used to solve the image-based query. Moreover, using attention knockouts and corrupted-input patching, we find that these pathways are flexible, under certain interventions, models can rely on the text-mediated pathway as a fallback when the usual pathway is ablated. This behavior unifies findings in prior work and shows that ablation-based interventions can reveal what models could do rather than what they normally do. Together, our results provide a mechanistic characterization of visual information flow in VLMs and highlight the flexibility of their internal mechanisms under intervention.

The accuracy of consumer-grade inertial navigation is bottlenecked by the stochastic noise of Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS). Traditional deterministic neural architectures often succumb to “estimation jittering,” sacrificing high-frequency kinematic fidelity for numerical stability. We propose PedestrianDiffusion, a multimodal spectral-domain generative framework reformulating dense 6D state estimation as a continuous conditional denoising process. By operating in the frequency domain, our formulation bounds the spectral covariance, acting as a mathematical preconditioner to stabilize the reverse diffusion trajectory. Furthermore, we introduce a zero-shot semantic conditioning mechanism leveraging vision-language embeddings as categorical priors to generalize across heterogeneous sensor noise profiles. To address the computational intractability of generative tracking, we deploy a single-step deterministic probability flow ODE solver ($T=1$). This yields high-capacity asynchronous batch trajectory refinement, establishing the viability of generative architectures for asynchronous batch trajectory refinement on edge hardware. Extensive evaluations on the OxIOD, RIDI, RoNIN, and TLIO benchmarks demonstrate that PedestrianDiffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance, exhibiting unprecedented robustness to impulse perturbations and coupled 6D kinematic drift. This work provides a rigorous algorithmic blueprint for next-generation Neural Inertial Measurement Units (N-IMUs).

We consider the Multiscale Single-Index Model (MSIM), first introduced in \cite{oymak2021learning}, as a stylized model for hierarchical learning with scale separation. Each layer extracts a shared single-index feature at one physical scale and passes it to the next, thus defining a tractable setting in which to study how deep architectures learn multiscale representations. Under non-degeneracy and delocalization assumptions on the link function and planted features respectively, for fixed depth $K$ and local scale $d$, the first Wiener chaos of the target behaves as a perturbed spiked tensor, where the perturbation of order $d^{-1/2}$ comes from the non-linearity – revealing the MSIM as a natural non-linear analogue of the Tensor PCA model \cite{montanari2014statistical}. While this perturbative picture is sufficient to enable efficient spectral recovery based on Tensor unfolding (as already observed in \cite{oymak2021learning}), it is not precise enough for the analysis of backpropagation gradient-based methods. In this work, we address this limitation by performing a fine-grained analysis of the Wiener chaos using Edgeworth expansions. In the first chaos, this gives a finite-rank hierarchy at scales $d^{-q/2}$. In higher chaoses, balanced flattenings exhibit staircase singular-value plateaus of size $d^{-\rho/2}$ and multiplicity $d^{\rho}$ under a natural higher-chaos non-cancellation condition. Using this higher-chaos structure, and under an additional slow Hermite-energy tail condition, we first establish shallow-network approximation lower bounds, quantifying the benefit of depth in this model. Next, and most importantly, we prove that online SGD on the correlation objective, where all layers evolve in the same timescale, achieves $1 - o_d(1)$ recovery with $n = \widetilde{O}( d^{K-1})$ samples, recovering the same sample complexity as in the linear counterpart.

Accurate and efficient dataset valuation is essential for enabling fair and transparent data marketplaces, especially when multiple contributors provide data for training multi-task models. Most existing valuation methods, however, are limited to single-task settings, overlooking scenarios where a buyer aims to optimize performance across multiple downstream tasks. Moreover, traditional valuation approaches, such as Shapley-based or retraining-based methods, are computationally expensive and poorly suited for decentralized environments without a trusted central coordinator and with strict privacy constraints. We propose DMVM (Decentralized Multi-task Valuation via Model Merging), a novel framework that bypasses retraining and data sharing by leveraging task arithmetic to infer dataset contributions directly from model combinations. Instead of retraining or sharing raw data, DMVM quantifies how models trained on different datasets combine in parameter space to infer each dataset's marginal utility across multiple tasks. This formulation yields a valuation process that is scalable, computationally efficient, and explicitly aligned with multi-task generalization behavior. To support decentralized deployment, we introduce a secure aggregation protocol that enables collaborative valuation without revealing individual model parameters or private data. We also provide theoretical error bounds characterizing the approximation quality of DMVM and validate our framework through comprehensive experiments on computer vision and natural language processing tasks.

Learning dissipative dynamics from discrete observations is essential for reliable long-horizon prediction and physically meaningful parameter identification. For linearly damped Hamiltonian systems, the exact flow is generally not symplectic but conformally symplectic, contracting the canonical symplectic form by a scalar factor that reflects the net dissipation. We propose Conformal Symplectic Networks with damping identification (CSympNet-ID), a discrete-time map-learning framework that learns the one-step flow map directly from snapshot pairs while enforcing exact discrete conformal symplecticity by construction, without penalty terms or projection. The architecture composes an exact symplectic neural core with explicit diagonal scaling layers whose factors are parameterized exponentially by a scalar damping-rate parameter, thereby guaranteeing positivity and interpretability of the learned dissipation factor. We establish a scaling-conjugacy factorization for conformal symplectic maps and derive a pointwise-in-step density result for CSympNet-ID. We evaluate an irregular-step damped oscillator, a damped spring-mass chain, a damped nonlinear cubic oscillator, and additional high-dimensional extensions. CSympNet-ID gives the most favorable overall results among the compared models in the reported experiments, particularly in data-scarce regimes, target contraction-law recovery, and high-dimensional tests where unstructured baselines degrade rapidly.

The federated learning (FL) paradigm fosters distributed pervasive computing combined with artificial intelligence techniques, allowing for optimized data usage and improved mitigation of privacy concerns. Indeed, model training occurs on the client's local devices, and model parameters are subsequently shared with a centralized server. However, there is a need to find a tradeoff between models' personalization and generalization capabilities. In this paper, we design and implement several testing scenarios devoted to evaluating and comparing the centralized, local, and federated paradigm performances. We also design and implement a scenario that emulates a change in clients' data. We then present experimental results of the FedAvg algorithm applied to the Human Activity Recognition (HAR) domain to understand the trade-off between personalized and generalized accuracy. Results show that, although FedAvg confirms a higher degree of personalization capabilities while keeping a high degree of generalization with respect to the traditional centralized learning, this result is not so obvious under stressful conditions, such as when varying class distribution over clients.

LLM agents are becoming a common interface for research, coding, and question answering, yet their Thought-Action-Observation loop is often serial: the model reasons, emits a tool call, then idles the GPU until the result returns. This wait consumes 16-37% of wall time in our workloads and 35-61% in prior reports. Speculative tool execution can hide this wait, but existing systems need auxiliary predictors, historical traces, or static workflow graphs, leaving a gap for training-free, day-one deployment. We observe that the model can be its own predictor: a probe forked at the start of generation predicts Qwen3-32B's upcoming tool name with 74.6-99.6% accuracy across five benchmarks. We present SPORK (Self-sPeculative fORKing), a training-free controller that dispatches the speculated tool call early, overlapping its execution with the remaining chain-of-thought decode. A cost model captures when speculation breaks even, and each component improves one of its terms: a prefix-cache fork cuts probe cost, a confidence gate filters mispredictions, and partial-token accept turns rejected probes into speculative-decoding drafts. On acceptance, the tool result is ready when reasoning ends; on rejection, SPORK falls back to serial execution with no correctness penalty. On real-tool benchmarks, SPORK cuts Qwen3-32B's GAIA P95 by 18% (131.9 to 108.1 s); the mechanism holds across model sizes from 4B to 32B and across dense and mixture-of-experts models, with task accuracy within 1 pp of baseline or better wherever measured. SPORK deploys as a thin controller over standard completion APIs (no retraining, no auxiliary models, no offline traces) and is orthogonal to token-level speculative decoding. SPORK is open source at https://github.com/baihuajun24/spork.

Conventional uniform convergence bounds and empirical risk minimization break down in massive over-parameterized models, such as large language transformers and biological sequence networks. With near-infinite unconstrained internal degrees of freedom, their optimization landscapes develop flat vertical gauge valleys, rendering classical generalization metrics vacuous and inducing severe pathologies, specifically generative hallucination and catastrophic forgetting. We introduce the Statistically Meaningful Geometry (SMG) framework, an information-geometric paradigm lifting deterministic parametric models into infinite-dimensional non-parametric Orlicz statistical manifolds. Modeling the total state space as a differential fiber bundle ($\mathcal{M}, \mathcal{B}, \pi, \mathcal{V}, \mathcal{H}, \omega$), we establish a Two-Fold Inference Paradigm. We formalize an Ehresmann connection 1-form $\omega$ as a dynamic geometric filter that strips away vertical gauge noise (Structural Internal Directions, or SID) and isolates learning trajectories along the strictly non-degenerate horizontal distribution (Statistical Variational Directions, or SVD$\chi$). We prove that under connection-filtered pre-training, out-of-distribution predictive variance is strictly upper-bounded by the finite diameter of the identifiable quotient base manifold $\mathcal{B}$, establishing a hard geometric containment of generative hallucinations. By projecting downstream updates onto the orthogonal complement of the historical horizontal carriage, we formalize the SMG Sequential Adaptation Flow, proving the total non-asymptotic elimination of catastrophic forgetting. SMG replaces empirical fine-tuning heuristics with coordinate-free topological constraints, bridging advanced differential geometry with structural reliability in AI.