Machine Learning
Alternate loss functions and regression models that achieve robustness to outliers by modulating the learning rate
Mathew Mithra Noel, Arindam Banerjee, Yug D. Oswal et al. (+2 more)
Most real-world
datasets used for training supervised learning models are contaminated with noisy data and outliers leading to large prediction errors. This paper proposes a new approach for achieving robustness where the learning rate is modulated by a factor that is sensitive to outliers. In this approach a reduction of the learning rate is shown to be achieved by using alternate loss functions that are infinitely differentiable, strictly convex or quasiconvex and more closely approximate the absolute error than Huber and log-cosh losses. A comparison of the performance of regression models trained with different loss functions on a wide variety of
benchmarks and
datasets is presented to demonstrate the superior performance of the Square Root Loss (SRL) and Smooth Mean Absolute Error (SMAE) losses proposed in this paper. Two new robust linear regression models are presented. Highly vectorized robust parameter update formulae that take advantage of modern GPUs for both
stochastic and batch gradient descent are presented.
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All authors Mathew Mithra Noel, Arindam Banerjee, Yug D. Oswal, Geraldine Bessie Amali D, Venkataraman Muthiah-Nakarajan
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
How Should a Simulation-to-Reality Transfer Budget Be Spent?
Syed Hamzah Rizvi and Yash Vardhan Tomar
Simulation-to-reality transfer, often called sim-to-real transfer, is a central challenge in
robot learning. Yet, the tradeoff between measuring a system more accurately and training over a broader range of simulated dynamics is still poorly understood. In this work, we focused on the allocation of real-
robot measurement time between system identification and domain randomization. We studied this tradeoff in a controlled sim-to-sim pendulum setting, where a hidden-parameter model stands in for the physical
robot, and the experiment sweeps identification rollouts against the width of the randomization distribution. Across the reality gaps and noise levels we tested, the measurement budget did most of the work. A small number of identification rollouts closed most of the transfer gap, and once any real data was available, policies performed best when trained at the estimated parameters rather than over a widened randomization band. Broad randomization that contained the true system still did not substitute for measurement. These results hold in a benign regime where the dynamics are identifiable and only two parameters are unknown, so structural model mismatch remains the setting where randomization breadth may become more valuable. Overall, our results suggest that sim-to-real pipelines should first measure the parameters they can and reserve randomization for the uncertainty that remains.
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Machine Learning
Provably Efficient Policy-Reward Co-Pretraining for Adversarial Imitation Learning
Tian Xu, Zexuan Chen, Zhilong Zhang et al. (+4 more)
Adversarial imitation learning (AIL) achieves high-quality imitation compared to behavioral cloning (BC), but demands substantial online environment interaction. Recent empirical work has explored initializing AIL
algorithms with BC pretrained policies to address this limitation, yet a rigorous theoretical understanding of pretraining's role in AIL remains elusive. This paper provides a systematic theoretical analysis and introduces principled pretraining
algorithms for accelerating AIL. We begin by analyzing AIL with policy pretraining alone, identifying reward error as the dominant source of suboptimality. This reveals a critical and previously overlooked gap: the absence of reward pretraining. Motivated by this finding, we develop a principled policy-reward co-pretraining approach grounded in a reward shaping analysis. Our analysis uncovers a fundamental connection between expert policies and shaping rewards, which naturally gives rise to CoPT-AIL, an approach that jointly pretrains both policy and reward through a single BC procedure. We prove that CoPT-AIL achieves an improved imitation gap bound over standard AIL, establishing the first theoretical guarantee for the benefits of pretraining in AIL. Experimental results confirm CoPT-AIL's superior performance over existing AIL methods.
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All authors Tian Xu, Zexuan Chen, Zhilong Zhang, Yi-Chen Li, Chenyang Wang, Lei Yuan, Yang Yu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP
Anticipating the Optimism Gap: Predicting Distribution-Shift Degradation of RF-Impairment Detectors from In-Distribution Statistics
Chakshu Baweja
Detectors for GNSS
radio-frequency impairments (jamming, spoofing, multipath) are usually reported with a single AUC measured on the distribution they were tuned on. That number falls once conditions move, and the size of the drop is rarely known in advance because labelled field data is scarce. We ask whether this optimism can be predicted before any out-of-distribution data is seen. On an open, parameter-grounded synthetic testbed with a tunable severity shift, we evaluate thirteen detectors (five physics baselines, full-feature logistic regression and multilayer perceptrons, and single-feature learned controls) across four impairment classes. The optimism gap, the difference between in-distribution and shifted AUC, grows monotonically as the shift deepens (mean Spearman correlation 0.50). It is driven by how many observables a detector uses rather than by whether it is learned, and it varies systematically by class. Centrally, a ridge model built only from in-distribution score statistics predicts the gap for a detector it has never seen (R^2 = 0.47) and for an impairment class it has never seen (R^2 = 0.46); both are significant against a 2000-fold permutation null (p < 0.001) and survive removing the feature that is, by construction, part of the target. The headline findings are synthetic. We then run the pre-registered protocol on three open field corpora: on Jammertest 2024 the cross-detector prediction holds (R^2 = 0.11, p = 0.009), and on SatGrid, whose spoofer power sweep gives a calibrated severity axis, in-distribution AUC overstates higher-severity AUC by up to 0.22 and to the point of sign inversion, with in-distribution AUC and realised gap perfectly rank-correlated (Spearman rho = 1.0). The mechanism survives contact with real data, at smaller magnitude than in simulation. We release the testbed, a software-receiver front end, the ingest adapters and the protocol.
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Machine Learning
Gradient-Descent Steps to Success over Mean Accuracy: A Paradigm Shift for ML
Riccardo Poli and Ahmet Yilmaz
Traditional evaluation of machine learning (ML) models typically focuses on achieving the maximum possible accuracy irrespective of the computational cost. In this article, we propose a paradigm shift towards evaluating performance based on computational effort-explicitly defined here as the total number of gradient descent steps required to reach an acceptable level of accuracy with high probability. Building upon the concept of computational effort originally introduced by Koza for Genetic Programming, we extend this metric to any ML model trained via gradient descent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that minimising this effort acts as a novel form of Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML). By evaluating it across 11 diverse ML models and five standard classification
datasets, we uncover significant insights into the dynamics of gradient-based learning. Our findings reveal that optimal hyper-parameters consistently favour unusually large learning rates. Crucially, we demonstrate that the rapid, aggressive landscape traversal enabled by these large rates not only promotes generalisation-as seen in phenomena like superconvergence-but also statistically minimises the expected computational effort for training. Furthermore, we identify distinct phase transitions in the optimal search strategy: while a single training run suffices for lower accuracy targets, reaching a model's performance limit requires a dramatic shift towards conducting numerous independent, short restarts. Finally, we illustrate how this effort-based paradigm provides a robust framework for model selection, allowing practitioners to choose optimal
algorithms based on the difficulty of a problem as perceived by different models for a given target accuracy, or to maximise the achievable accuracy for a fixed budget of gradient descent steps.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
When Does a Video-Language Model Stop Watching? Reward Strength Controls the Formation and Reversal of Visual Shortcuts in Multimodal RLVR
Zekun Xu
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is increasingly applied to large
vision-
language models (LVLMs), yet outcome-only optimization can drive a model to stop attending to the
video and instead exploit linguistic priors – a failure we call a visual shortcut. While the existence of such perception bypass is by now documented, how it forms, whether it can be undone, and when intervention still helps remain open. We treat the strength of a grounding penalty, lambda, as a control knob and characterize the formation-reversal dynamics of visual shortcuts along the training time axis. On a held-out, out-of-distribution diagnostic set, we find: (i) a sharp onset – shortcut reliance emerges abruptly over a narrow window of optimization steps and is robust across random seeds; (ii) a monotone dose-response – increasing lambda progressively suppresses the shortcut, and at an intermediate dose the trajectory first forms and then reverses the shortcut, exposing a hysteresis-like asymmetry between acquiring and removing it; and (iii) a critical intervention window – applying the penalty before onset arrests shortcut formation, whereas the same penalty applied after consolidation is markedly less effective. Together these results recast visual-shortcut collapse not as a binary defect but as a controllable, time-dependent, and asymmetric process, with direct implications for when and how strongly to regularize
multimodal RLVR.
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Machine Learning
A Completion-Aware Framework for Impactful Counterfactual Explainability in Graph Neural Networks
Maria Myrto Villia, Filippos Gouidis, Theodore Patkos et al. (+1 more)
In this study, we propose a novel pipeline for generic, model-agnostic, local-level counterfactual explainability in graph neural networks (GNNs). Although counterfactual explainers capable of both adding and removing edges have emerged in recent years, the need for generic and efficient solutions remains unmet, particularly concerning qualitative explanation generation. Our approach couples progress in factual explainability with missing edge prediction models rooted in link prediction research, in order to enhance the quality, robustness and intuitiveness of explanations. A multi-faceted experimental analysis conducted on real-world and synthetic graph classification
benchmarks, both binary and multi-label, demonstrates the advancements in comparison to state-of-the-art baselines across diverse metrics.
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All authors Maria Myrto Villia, Filippos Gouidis, Theodore Patkos, Panos Trahanias
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
When Does Belief-Based Agent Memory Help? Reliability-Conditional Updating and Provenance-Capped Poisoning Defense
Pranav Singh
We investigate when belief-based
memory actually improves large
language model (LLM)
agents. Our vehicle is Nous, a long-term
memory architecture that represents each entity-attribute pair as a categorical probability distribution updated through closed-form
Bayesian inference, with information-theoretic surprise driving belief revision and
entropy-based forgetting. A controlled ablation on the LoCoMo
benchmark shows that
Bayesian belief updating alone provides little benefit over naive last-write-wins because existing conversational
memory benchmarks rarely contain contradictory or differently reliable evidence. We then introduce reliability-conditioned updating, estimating per-observation reliability from epistemic
language, and show on a controlled contradiction
benchmark that belief updating substantially outperforms last-write-wins and raw-
memory retrieval when observations differ in trustworthiness. Because content-derived reliability is itself vulnerable to manipulation, we further propose provenance-capped belief updating, where trust is bounded by source provenance rather than textual confidence. Under controlled
memory-poisoning experiments, this approach resists volumetric poisoning attacks while revealing the utility costs and implementation requirements of provenance-aware
memory. Finally, we quantify a 27.5-point discrepancy between strict
token-F1 and LLM-as-judge evaluation on identical outputs, highlighting important reproducibility concerns for long-term
memory benchmarks. Our results suggest that probabilistic belief-based
memory is most beneficial in environments requiring
reasoning over conflicting and differently trustworthy evidence, rather than conventional conversational recall alone.
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Machine Learning
Cluster-Specific Localized Drift Detection for Efficient Batch Model Adaptation under Controlled Distribution Shift
Ignacio Cabrera Martin, Marcello Trovati, Almas Baimagambetov et al. (+1 more)
Machine learning systems deployed in dynamic environments frequently operate under nonstationary data distributions, where controlled distribution shift can progressively degrade predictive performance. However, many widely used tabular
benchmark datasets lack explicit temporal structure, limiting reproducible evaluation of drift adaptation methods. This work proposes a cluster-induced distribution shift simulation framework that transforms static tabular
datasets into controlled evolving data streams through structured perturbations across featurespace partitions. Using this framework, six adaptation strategies are systematically evaluated: static learning, sliding-window retraining, global ADWIN retraining, cluster-local ADWIN retraining, random subspace drift detection, and feature-partitioned drift detection. Experiments are conducted on five
benchmark datasets covering both classification and regression tasks using diverse predictive model families, including linear models, k-Nearest Neighbours, tree ensembles, boosting methods, and adaptive online learners.
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All authors Ignacio Cabrera Martin, Marcello Trovati, Almas Baimagambetov, Nikolaos Polatidis
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD
What Do Neural Networks Learn for TDOA Estimation? A Cross-Architecture Probing Study
Yaozhong Kang, Jiang Wang, Runwu Shi et al. (+3 more)
Neural networks outperform classical GCC-PHAT for Time-Difference-of-Arrival (TDOA) estimation in noise and reverberation, yet their internal strategy remains unexplored. To uncover it, we turn GCC-PHAT's mathematical steps into diagnostic targets, probing hidden layers of three architectures (MLP, CNN,
Transformer) and complementing with gradient attribution and causal frequency masking. We find that cross-power computation consistently emerges across all architectures and conditions, while PHAT whitening, the defining step of GCC-PHAT, fails to emerge. Instead, networks learn a magnitude-aware frequency weighting that preserves per-frequency reliability information discarded by PHAT. This makes PHAT an information bottleneck: removing it from both classical and neural GCC pipelines improves performance under additive noise. On real-world reverberant data, PHAT remains the best classical weighting, but end-to-end networks achieve lower error by learning data-adaptive weighting.
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All authors Yaozhong Kang, Jiang Wang, Runwu Shi, Takeshi Ashizawa, Benjamin Yen, Kazuhiro Nakadai
Machine Learning
Channel Location Constrains the Auditability of Subliminal Learning
Tamas Madl
Subliminal learning lets a student inherit a teacher's hidden trait from
distillation data that never names it. We ask when such transfer can be audited before training. The answer is not model identity or scale alone, but channel location: the carrier through which the trait reaches the student. We find three regimes. In a controlled initialization-dependent body channel, a pre-training screen works. Coverage, the cosine between the student's initial
distillation update and the teacher's fine-tuning displacement, predicts held-out transfer (Spearman $\rho \approx 0.95$; AUROC 0.997). In pretrained
language models, masked single-
token traits instead ride convergent vocabulary geometry. This channel is initialization-independent, so initialization-
alignment screens, including coverage, are not mechanistic; the useful handles are post-hoc detection and targeted mitigation. Even when a single-
token named entity is removed from the loss, the student's held-out probability for that entity rises to 0.40 on average ($\sim 2500\times$), and a related semantic class transfers. In an untied-head model, orthogonalizing the trait's output row against entangled neighbours collapses leakage, while equal-size random-subspace edits do not. Thus removing a target string from
distillation labels does not remove the corresponding preference: neighbouring
tokens can carry it. Finally, conditional behaviours can route through the network body. For sycophancy, with agreement and correction markers masked from the loss, transfer reaches about 0.63 of the teacher's effect, localizes to body computation, and evades four audits across two model families. We scope this as masked transfer of a condition-present policy. Channel location is necessary for deciding which audits can be sound. It is not a deployment-ready screen: an audit used outside its carrier regime can give false assurance.
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Machine Learning
Load Testing for Machine Learning Model Serving Systems at Scale
Amr S. Abdelfattah, Nakul Tirumalai, Indu Mohanan et al. (+4 more)
Machine learning (ML) model serving has become a dominant consumer of GPU infrastructure, yet capacity planning in these systems remains largely ad hoc. Under-provisioning leads to service-level objective (SLO) violations and production incidents, while over-provisioning results in substantial resource waste. This paper presents \sys, an industrial load testing framework for ML serving systems that systematically estimates serving capacity through an adaptive, feedback-driven search strategy. The approach leverages real-time performance signals, incorporating dampening, spike tolerance, and convergence detection to efficiently identify maximum sustainable throughput under SLO constraints. We evaluate \sys through a longitudinal analysis of 14 industrial case studies spanning four ML architecture classes: recommendation, ranking,
vision, and NLP. This study demonstrates that systematic load testing leads to substantial improvements in GPU resource efficiency and operational reliability. Prior to adopting \sys, a significant fraction of model launches were under-provisioned, resulting in recurring incidents; these issues were substantially reduced after deployment. Our results show that ML-specific design decisions are critical to accurate capacity estimation: workload calibration using recorded traffic reduces estimation error from approximately 30% to 2–6%, while proper warmup handling yields a 22.2% improvement in accuracy. Further analysis reveals key factors influencing prediction error, including model size and co-location effects. This paper distills six lessons and derive architectural guidelines for ML load testing, offering actionable insights for building reliable and efficient ML serving systems.
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All authors Amr S. Abdelfattah, Nakul Tirumalai, Indu Mohanan, Xiao Li, Pengchao Wang, Dinakar Dhurjati, Eric Sung
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
One-Shot Data Selection for Medical Image Classification via Graph Coverage
Zahiriddin Rustamov, Nadia Badawi, Rafat Damseh et al. (+1 more)
Training medical image classifiers on entire
datasets is wasteful when annotation budgets are limited: not all samples contribute equally, yet acquiring expert labels is expensive. Active learning reduces annotation cost through iterative querying, but assumes repeated access to an oracle and requires multiple rounds of model training. One-shot geometry-based methods such as facility location avoid retraining but operate on pairwise distances that ignore the local structure of the data
manifold. We propose a graph-based one-shot selection method that operates entirely on frozen foundation model
embeddings. Given
embeddings from a pretrained encoder, we construct a k-nearest neighbor graph over all training samples and derive a two-term coverage kernel from the heat
diffusion kernel, capturing both direct and two-hop neighborhood relationships. Greedy facility location on this kernel selects class-balanced subsets that maximize coverage of the data
manifold. The two-term kernel matches the full spectral heat kernel in selection behavior while reducing computation to sparse
matrix operations with a single hyperparameter. We evaluate on five MedMNIST
datasets spanning histopathology, radiology, and microscopy, comparing against both training-dynamics and geometry-based baselines. Our method achieves the highest balanced accuracy on nine of ten
dataset-ratio conditions, with the largest gains on class-imbalanced
datasets where global graph construction captures cross-class structure that per-class methods miss, all without any model training during selection. Code is available at https://github.com/zahiriddin-rustamov/graph-coverage-selection.
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All authors Zahiriddin Rustamov, Nadia Badawi, Rafat Damseh, Nazar Zaki
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
CFAgentBench: A Reproducible Environment and Benchmark for Autonomous Construction-Finance Agents
Rishi Srivastava
We introduce CFAgentBench, a reproducible, self-hostable environment and
benchmark for autonomous construction-finance
agents: a CFO/controller-class
agent operating across the real software stack a US construction finance team runs - ERP, project management, email, documents, pay applications, payroll, certified payroll, lien waivers, and bank/treasury portals. It contains 1,014 machine-gradeable task specifications across 8 domains and 77 families, every family grounded in a real source; a self-validated subset of 40 tasks (54 with a project-management extension) is compiled into oracle-validated executable evaluators, the runnable suite reported here. Following WebArena, the
benchmark runs on an executable environment rather than static traces: 35 mock applications (31 reconciled to one company book, plus 4 PM platforms) over 9 archetypes, each implementing a uniform self-hostable app contract, so every task is graded by functional correctness - a state diff plus forbidden-side-effect checks plus required-output regexes - with an LLM judge used only for reply quality, never as reward. A distinguishing principle is a money-movement guard: 278 instances embed a payment, payroll, e-signature, or e-filing step where the correct behavior is to stop and stage for human approval, and executing even the correct transaction fails the task. The public split (n=711) is sized for a 95% Wilson half-width of +/-4.1%; a private, contamination-protected split (n=303) is reserved for remote scoring. In a first three-model open-weight sweep (k=5), the strongest
agent reaches pass^1 = 0.67 but only pass^5 = 0.38 - losing 43% of its successes when required to repeat them under temperature-0 decoding. The within-model pass^1 to pass^5 collapse and sharp per-domain heterogeneity are clear evidence that single-attempt accuracy overstates deployable construction-finance competence.
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Machine Learning
Prefix-Guided On-Policy Distillation: Mining Golden Trajectories from Rollouts
Qingfei Zhao, Huan Song, Shuyu Tian et al. (+2 more)
On-policy
distillation (OPD) improves
reasoning models by applying dense teacher supervision on student-sampled trajectories. However, scaling OPD to long-horizon
reasoning exposes a reliability and efficiency problem: standard OPD assigns every candidate the same long rollout budget, even though some trajectories may quickly become weakly aligned with the teacher and provide less useful supervision. Prior analyses suggest that teacher–student compatibility is important for OPD success, motivating early-prefix top-k overlap as a proxy for continuation value. Continuing low-overlap trajectories to the full rollout length may cause them to drift further from the teacher as generation proceeds, increasing computational cost while providing limited
distillation benefit. To address this, we introduce Prefix-Guided On-Policy
Distillation (PG-OPD), a rollout-allocation framework that estimates continuation value from fixed-length prefixes. PG-OPD computes teacher-student top-k overlap in an early probe window and allocates long rollouts only to high-overlap candidates, while stopping the rest at the prefix length. Across teacher–student combinations on AMC, AIME, and HMMT
benchmarks, PG-OPD achieves up to a 4.80-point accuracy gain and up to a 2.46x wall-clock speedup across configurations. These results demonstrate that using early-prefix compatibility to guide candidate
pruning can improve both training efficiency and
reasoning performance.
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All authors Qingfei Zhao, Huan Song, Shuyu Tian, Jiawei Shao, Xuelong Li
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Can LLMs Control Readability? A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation Framework for CEFR-Controlled Arabic Generation
Nour Rabih, Chatrine Qwaider and Ted Briscoe
While Large
Language Models (LLMs) can generate fluent Arabic text, their ability to reliably control readability levels remains unclear. We propose a multi-dimensional evaluation framework for Common European Framework of Reference for
Language (CEFR)-controlled Arabic text generation, assessing whether instruction-following LLMs can serve as reliable generators for adaptive
language learning. Our framework integrates controlled prompting, automatic readability prediction using a validated Taha-19 model, lexical constraint validation, and syntactic complexity profiling. Results show that structured prompting substantially improves CEFR
alignment. In particular, CEFR-guided prompting with lexical constraints achieves the highest conformity to reference linguistic profiles (0.91 cosine similarity) and near-perfect agreement with predicted readability levels (0.99), while unconstrained prompting exhibits weak control. These findings establish an empirical foundation for integrating readability-aware Arabic text generation into adaptive educational systems.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
IRumAI: Reinforcement Learning for Indian Rummy
Vignesh Mohan
Despite its massive player base and complex hidden-information dynamics, Indian Rummy has received no reinforcement learning
attention. Existing
agents rely on combinatorial search, which is tactically strong but slow at inference. We present IRumAI, the first RL
agent for the domain. IRumAI integrates Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), meld-aware observation encoding, deadwood-driven reward shaping, and a dual-branch convolutional architecture. IRumAI is RL-trained solely against weak heuristics, after a one-time behaviour-cloning warm-start on stronger demonstration data. It generalises to defeat the entire baseline hierarchy, including a 53.9% win rate against the strongest search-based opponent unseen during RL training. Bypassing explicit search, IRumAI requires just 0.33 ms per action, which is over 7,000x faster than the state-of-the-art heuristic. Ablations validate our architectural choices, and linear probing reveals that the network implicitly models the opponent's hidden hand from public interactions.
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Machine Learning
SPOTR: Spatio-temporal Pooling One-Token Reconstruction for Universal Physiological Signal Self-supervised Learning
Yiyu Gui, Mingzhi Chen, Yuesheng Zhu et al. (+2 more)
Physiological signals such as
EEG, ECG, and PPG are widely used in clinical monitoring. Recent self-supervised learning (SSL) methods offer an attractive way to leverage unlabeled recordings, yet they still fall short in practice. In particular, current SSL methods struggle across heterogeneous
datasets, often distorting clinically meaningful structures or learning shortcuts from temporal and cross-channel redundancy. Consequently, existing SSL methods often deliver limited performance under linear probing, a lightweight adaptation setting that better matches real-world medical scenarios. Moreover, most
Transformer-based SSL models encode a flattened spatiotemporal
token sequence, incurring high computation and
memory cost, and are typically developed within a single modality. To address these limitations, we present SPOTR (Spatio-temporal Pooling One-
Token Reconstruction), a compress-reconstruct pretraining framework that introduces a single-
token global bottleneck for physiological signals. SPOTR compresses each waveform into a single-
token representation and reconstructs the signal conditioned only on this representation. Meanwhile, SPOTR introduces an efficient spatio-temporal compaction module to reduce computation and
memory cost. Pretrained on 20
datasets spanning
EEG, iEEG, ECG, and PPG, SPOTR consistently outperforms the strongest baseline under linear probing, improving average AUC by 18.49%, 21.71%, 17.86%, and 4.64%, respectively. Compared with a representative general-purpose time-series foundation model, SPOTR achieves around 78% lower latency and 52% lower peak GPU
memory on average. The code can be found at https://github.com/5GYYYYY/SPOTR.
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All authors Yiyu Gui, Mingzhi Chen, Yuesheng Zhu, Guibo Luo, Yuchao Yang
Machine Learning
VegSim: A Geospatial World Model for Scenario-Conditioned Vegetation Simulation
Irene Iele, Elena Mulero Ayllón, Paolo Soda et al. (+1 more)
Vegetation monitoring under
climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions.
Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological
covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI
quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic
forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatio-temporal shifts, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth Observation
forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under two contrasting meteorological scenarios, obtaining a weak but broadly positive response under winter wet warming and a widespread negative response under summer drought. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.
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All authors Irene Iele, Elena Mulero Ayllón, Paolo Soda, Matteo Tortora
Machine Learning
A Standard Processing Pipeline for High-accuracy Measurement of Few-shot Regression on Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy
Hao Li
Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) faces challenges in high-accuracy quantitative measurement under few-shot scenarios due to spectral noise and data scarcity. Traditional preprocessing methods often fail to preserve subtle spectral features or capture nonlinear correlations. This work proposes a standardized processing pipeline integrating
diffusion-based denoising,
attention-based autoencoder for dimensionality reduction, group shuffling data augmentation, and ordinary least squares regression. The
diffusion module employs a 3D UNet architecture to remove spectral noise while preserving essential emission features. The
attention-autoencoder captures nonlinear spectral correlations, effectively reducing high-dimensional spectral data to compact latent representations. Group shuffling data augmentation enhances model robustness by creating synthetic samples through feature group permutation. Experimental results on multiple elemental concentrations demonstrate that our
Diffusion-DA-AE pipeline achieves superior performance with a mean RMAE of 0.2847, representing 37.7% and 37.6% improvements over baseline autoencoder and traditional PCA-PLS regression, respectively. The framework's effectiveness validates its generalizability and establishes a new
benchmark for few-shot LIBS regression.
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Machine Learning
Learning by Shifting: Temporal View Construction for Time Series Contrastive Learning
Abdul-Kazeem Shamba, Kerstin Bach and Gavin Taylor
Supervised learning demands large quantities of labeled data, a bottleneck that is expensive and reliant on domain-specific expertise. Self-supervised learning, particularly contrastive learning, has emerged as a compelling alternative, enabling rich representation learning directly from unlabeled data. Yet its success hinges critically on the design of positive and negative sample pairs. Existing approaches for time series rely on hand-crafted augmentations and masking heuristics that embed strong domain assumptions, often limiting generalization across diverse temporal patterns and potentially introducing spurious correlations. In this work, we challenge this paradigm by demonstrating that explicitly encoding temporal shift invariance through a simple, deterministic view construction is sufficient to learn strong representations for time series classification. By exploiting temporal structure, our method, Shift Invariant Feature Training (ShiFT), achieves state-of-the-art performance on six diverse real-world time series
benchmark datasets, as well as the UCR and UEA archives, while reducing training time. Beyond empirical performance, we present a systematic analysis of contrastive learning dynamics in time series settings, examining the effects of batch size and the number of negatives on downstream performance. Our findings provide practical insights for designing efficient contrastive learning frameworks for time series representation learning. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/sfi-norwai/ShiFT.
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Machine Learning
On the Curse of Dimensionality in Private Sparse Covariance Estimation and PCA
Syamantak Kumar, Shourya Pandey, Purnamrita Sarkar et al. (+1 more)
We study high-dimensional differentially private (DP) covariance estimation in the operator norm, and principal component analysis (PCA), under $k$-row-column sparsity ($k$-RCS) of the covariance
matrix. In the non-private setting, it is known that $\mathsf{poly}(k, \log d)$ samples suffice to solve both of these problems. However, the only comparable result known under DP (Wang et al. 2021) requires $\Omega(d)$ samples under standard parameterizations of the problem. We investigate when this curse of dimensionality is inherent for sparse covariance estimation tasks under DP. On the upper bound front, we show that a $\mathsf{poly}(k, \log d)$ sample complexity for PCA is possible under DP, if we also posit sparsity of the leading eigenvector. We complement this result with $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ lower bounds under DP for both sparse covariance estimation and PCA, establishing an exponential gap between the private and non-private variants of these problems when $k = \mathsf{polylog}(d)$. To our knowledge, no such separation has previously been demonstrated for any sparse estimation problems in private high-dimensional statistics. Our techniques are flexible enough that they imply stronger lower bounds even for the well-studied problem of standard DP PCA, without sparsity assumptions.
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All authors Syamantak Kumar, Shourya Pandey, Purnamrita Sarkar, Kevin Tian
Machine Learning
Modularized Reinforcement Learning on LLMs: From MDP Creation to Exploration and Learning
Zhao Yang, Yuxuan Jiang, Ting-Chih Chen et al. (+18 more)
Reinforcement learning (RL) has become central to LLM post-training, yet the methods that dominate current pipelines, PPO and GRPO, represent only a narrow slice of what RL offers. Understanding why these methods prevail, and what alternatives exist, requires a principled examination of the design decisions that underlie any RL
algorithm. This survey organizes that examination around three stages of
algorithm construction. We begin with MDP creation: how the reward function, state space, action space, termination condition, and discount factor are, or could be, defined for LLM training. We then turn to exploration, covering temperature sampling,
entropy regularization, intrinsic motivation, tree search, and curriculum learning. Finally, we address learning along four classical RL dimensions: model-free versus model-based, value-based versus policy-based versus actor-critic, on-policy versus off-policy, and credit assignment, including both Monte Carlo methods, which rely on full return estimates, and bootstrapping methods, which update estimates using other learned predictions. Mapping the LLM literature onto this taxonomy reveals a strikingly non-uniform distribution of research effort. Critic-free policy gradients and Monte Carlo credit assignment are densely populated, while value-based methods, off-policy actor-critic training, and bootstrapping-based credit assignment remain largely unexplored despite well-established counterparts in classical RL. These gaps represent concrete opportunities for transferring proven RL techniques to LLM training. By making these gaps explicit alongside the methods that have proven effective, this survey offers researchers in both RL and LLMs a shared framework for understanding current practice and identifying promising directions for future work.
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All authors Zhao Yang, Yuxuan Jiang, Ting-Chih Chen, Lincen Yang, Annie Wong, Chao Gao, Jacob E. Kooi, Zhong Li, Jiayang Shi, Kevin Qiu, Qi Huang, Xinrui Zu, Shiping Yang, Hengyuan Zhang, Ngai Wong, Filip Ilievski, Shujian Yu, Aske Plaat, Zhaochun Ren, Mark Hoogendoorn, Vincent François-Lavet
Machine Learning
DevoTG: Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Modeling C. elegans Developmental Connectomics
Jayadratha Gayen and Bradly Alicea
Understanding how a nervous system wires itself from birth to adulthood is a fundamental challenge in developmental neuroscience. We present DevoTG, a temporal graph framework that applies Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNs) to two complementary representations of C. elegans neural development: a Continuous-Time Dynamic Graph (CTDG) of
cell division events derived from
cell lineage data, and a Discrete-Time Dynamic Graph (DTDG) of the developing synaptic connectome spanning eight reconstructed electron-microscopy
datasets. On the lineage prediction task, our TGN achieves a mean test AUC of 0.839 +/- 0.007 (5 seeds; validation AUC 0.937 +/- 0.001), outperforming a static GNN with the identical architecture by 26 AUC points (0.577 +/- 0.080), demonstrating that temporal
memory is the decisive factor. Applied to the connectome DTDG, DevoTG identifies three connection stability classes (stable, developmental, and variable) across 225
neurons and 858 to 2,496 connections over development (L1 birth to adult), providing a temporal-graph-theoretic complement to the individual-variability classification of Witvliet et al. Analysis of hub command interneurons AVA, AVB, and AVE reveals their persistent centrality and how their integration roles are progressively reinforced across larval stages. Accompanying interactive visualizations (3D animated networks, centrality heatmaps, and a spatiotemporal lineage graph) make developmental dynamics accessible for biological hypothesis generation. DevoTG is open-source and designed for extension to other developing nervous systems. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/DevoLearn/DevoGraph/tree/main/DevoTG.
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Machine Learning
Selective Ensemble Based on Preference-Directed Multi-Objective Bandits
Lanjihong Ma, Zhen-Yu Zhang, Masashi Sugiyama et al. (+1 more)
Selective ensemble for modern machine learning systems requires choosing promising model candidates under limited evaluation budgets, while downstream tasks often specify only partial preferences over capabilities such as accuracy, robustness, and
reasoning. This setting naturally gives rise to a sequential decision problem under partially specified linear preferences. We formalize it as preference-directed multi-objective bandits (PDMOB), where admissible trade-offs are represented by a polyhedral preference cone. Based on this formulation, we introduce Pareto $C$-optimality, which recovers standard Pareto optimality and single-weight scalarization as special cases. We then propose the preference-directed upper confidence bound (PrefUCB)
algorithm, which maintains directional confidence intervals to guide exploration. We analyze both indicator-based and gap-weighted regret, and establish instance-dependent logarithmic bounds for both criteria, recovering the optimal logarithmic dependence on the horizon $T$ in classical special cases. Experiments on large pre-trained model selective ensemble tasks and online asset allocation under institutional mandates validate the efficacy of our method.
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All authors Lanjihong Ma, Zhen-Yu Zhang, Masashi Sugiyama, Zhi-Hua Zhou
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Pre-Generation Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models via Soft-Target Attention Probing
Amina Miftakhova and Alexey Zaytsev
Detecting
hallucination risk before generation enables abstention,
retrieval augmentation, and routing decisions without incurring the cost of decoding. While prior work has shown that such risk can be estimated from a model's internal representations, existing approaches treat this as binary classification over a single decoded output. We instead formulate it as a risk-estimation problem. Under this formulation, we introduce soft-target supervision based on the empirical answer error rate over stochastically sampled outputs - an
estimator we prove to be the unique unbiased minimum-variance
estimator of the model's per-
prompt error probability under its sampling distribution. We further adapt
attention probing to the pre-generation setting, enabling the detector to selectively aggregate
hallucination-relevant
prompt representations. Across three question-answering
benchmarks and five models,
attention probing outperforms linear probing on short-answer tasks. Replacing binary labels with soft-target supervision further and consistently improves detection quality.
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Machine Learning
Data Pruning: Redundant, Problematic, and Interdependent Samples
Leon Freese and Marthinus W. Theunissen
The performance of deep learning models is affected by not only data quantity but also data quality. Data
pruning is a process by which practitioners can reduce the size of a
dataset by only keeping the most important training data points, thereby achieving similar test set performance. We empirically investigate two popular data
pruning methods under noisy and noiseless conditions and show that these methods fail in the presence of significant label noise. We highlight that the success of data
pruning is distinctly affected by three factors: redundancy in the
dataset, the presence of problematic samples, and interdependence between samples. We perform a detailed investigation on commonly used
benchmark classification
datasets and neural network architectures. We find that our observations are consistent across data distributions and training protocols.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR
The Pitfall of Scaling Up: Uncovering and Mitigating Popularity Bias Amplification in Scaling Transformer-based Recommenders
Weiqin Yang, Yue Pan, Chongming Gao et al. (+4 more)
We identify a critical pitfall in scaling
transformer-based sequential recommenders: while increasing model size improves recommendation accuracy, it simultaneously amplifies popularity bias. This bias drives systems to over-recommend popular items at the expense of niche ones, which not only undermines
fairness but also degrades the broader ecosystem by reinforcing the Matthew effect and filter bubbles. Consequently, this bias amplification emerges as a fundamental obstacle to sustainable model scaling. Through comprehensive theoretical and empirical analyses, we uncover the root cause of this amplification. Our findings reveal that as model depth increases, the two core components of the
transformer architecture, i.e.,
attention aggregation and feed-forward projections, synergistically induce severe spectral collapse in model predictions, which directly translates to the amplification of popularity bias. To address this challenge, we propose SPRINT (Scalable Popularity Regularization IN
Transformers), which mitigates spectral collapse during scaling by constraining (i) the maximum column-sums of the
attention score
matrices and (ii) the spectral norms of the feed-forward parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SPRINT significantly improves both accuracy and long-tail
fairness. Crucially, it yields more favorable scaling behaviors when expanding model sizes from 0.05M to 0.34B parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/GenRec.
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All authors Weiqin Yang, Yue Pan, Chongming Gao, Sheng Zhou, Xiang Wang, Can Wang, Jiawei Chen
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
Continuous Behavioral Authentication via Multi-Expert BERT Log Analysis for Secure Data Sharing
Stergios Lantzos, Ilias Syrigos, Apostolos Apostolaras et al. (+1 more)
Continuous authentication for mobile and zero-trust systems requires nonintrusive evidence confirming the enrolled user-device context remains valid after initial login. This paper presents a BERT log analysis framework for continuous behavioral authentication using Android system logs. The proposed pipeline parses logcat streams into event templates and dynamic variables, pre-trains a domain-adapted BERT encoder on Android log syntax, and fine-tunes three expert models for network/device identity, battery-transition timing, and Wi-Fi
topology. The expert confidence scores are fused through a log-space transformation and a 5-nearest-neighbor distance classifier to generate a normality score that is provided to a Policy Decision Point (PDP) for risk-aware access control. Experiments on normal traces, controlled anomaly injections, and benign Wi-Fi perturbations indicate that multi-expert BERT log analysis can detect semantic, battery-timing, and
topology deviations in the evaluated setting while maintaining sub-1% False Positive Rate (FPR). The results suggest that Android system logs are a practical sensor-free signal for continuous authentication and user-device context assurance.
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All authors Stergios Lantzos, Ilias Syrigos, Apostolos Apostolaras, Thanasis Korakis
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from astro-ph.SR
Prediction of Solar Flares Using Photospheric Magnetic Field Parameters with Deep Learning
Yash Chaudhary, Jason T. L. Wang, Chunhui Xu et al. (+2 more)
Solar flares, particularly those of the M- and X-class, have a significant impact on human life because of their potential to disrupt critical infrastructure and communication systems on Earth. Accurate prediction of
solar flares is crucial for mitigating these risks, but the black-box nature of conventional deep learning models used in
flare prediction limits their trustworthiness and interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new approach to
solar flare prediction using photospheric
magnetic field parameters or features with deep learning. To improve model interpretability, we integrate explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs), into our prediction framework. XAI methods provide transparency by analyzing the importance and interactions of features used by our model. Specifically, SHAP values offer a global and local understanding of the features, while PDPs provide insights into feature-level trends. These techniques demonstrate the potential of XAI in deploying AI-driven solutions in high-impact applications such as
solar flare prediction, paving the way for more informed decision-making in
solar physics and space weather studies.
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All authors Yash Chaudhary, Jason T. L. Wang, Chunhui Xu, Yan Xu, Sen Zhang