Papers

This study addresses the optimal execution of large stock sell programs by introducing TT-DAC-PS (Twin-Target Deterministic Actor-Critic with Policy Smoothing), a deterministic actor-critic architecture that combines twin exponential-moving-average critic targets with pessimistic min backup, TD3-style target policy smoothing noise, delayed actor updates, and conservative Q regularisation to curb overestimation. Exploration uses Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) noise with a hybrid schedule: deterministic episode-wise decay, variance-guided adjustment based on recent reward dispersion, and a Soft Actor-Critic (SAC)-style temperature that is learned and mapped to the noise scale. The environment integrates Almgren-Chriss (AC) trade impact with Limit Order Book (LOB) prices and volumes, normalised state features, per-step volume participation caps, and a utility-based reward. The trade execution algorithm is applied to LOB data for ten U.S. stocks. Performance is assessed against reinforcement-learning baseline algorithms, including Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO), Soft Actor-Critic (SAC), and Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C), as well as alternative trade execution algorithms, including Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), and AC. The proposed model consistently reduces mean implementation shortfall percentage with competitive variance, outperforming classical baselines and standard reinforcement-learning benchmark models.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly deployed across socially consequential domains, reports of AI-related harms and failures have grown in frequency and diversity. Although existing governance frameworks articulate high-level principles for responsible AI, large-scale empirical resources for tracking and analyzing real-world AI risk incidents remain limited. Existing incident collections are often manually curated, relatively small in scale, and insufficient for continuous, data-driven monitoring and downstream computational analysis. To address this need, we present RiskNet, a large-scale dataset of AI risk incidents constructed from large-scale multilingual news sources. RiskNet applies a structured pipeline for AI risk news identification, event-level report screening, incident alignment, and multi-dimensional incident classification. The resulting resource organizes dispersed news reports into incident-centered records and provides benchmark datasets for event classification, incident alignment, and incident-level risk labeling. In its current release, RiskNet covers hundreds of millions of source records and yields a large-scale collection of AI risk-related reports, including aligned incident clusters and annotated benchmark subsets. The dataset is also accessible through an online platform for browsing and exploration. We describe the data sources, processing workflow, taxonomy design, and technical validation of the resource. RiskNet is intended to support downstream research on AI safety, governance, risk analysis, and benchmarking, as well as longitudinal and cross-source analyses of AI-related harms. By providing a structured and reusable empirical resource, RiskNet helps bridge the gap between high-level governance principles and the documented realities of AI risk incidents.

All-atom generative modeling of 3D biomolecular complexes has emerged as the dominant paradigm for predicting the structure of proteins and protein-ligand systems. Generating structures at the atomic level of fidelity, however, typically requires expensive iterative diffusion rollouts, making both conventional deployment and inference-time search techniques computationally costly. In this paper, we introduce the Denoiser Cofolding All-Atom Flowmap (DeCAF) framework for distilling state-of-the-art all-atom cofolding models into all-atom flow maps that produce high-quality samples in only a few inference steps. We build DeCAF on a denoiser-based formulation of flow maps with endpoint losses that naturally support SE(3) rigid alignment, which we show is critical for training accurate models. We further derive a simple change of variables that lets DeCAF operate in the {\sigma}-space noise schedule of EDM-style architectures, enabling direct distillation from pretrained cofolding diffusion models. Equipped with DeCAF's flowmap lookahead, we introduce a purpose-built inference-time framework that improves sampling through reward-guided search. Empirically, DeCAF-Boltz statistically improves over Boltz-1x in both accuracy (RMSD) and physical validity scores of protein-ligand poses at strict NFE budgets on the challenging Runs N' Poses, while also showing a more optimal Pareto frontier across all inference compute budgets on PoseBusters. Distilling the state-of-the-art Pearl cofolding model, DeCAF-Pearl outperforms diffusion-based cofolding models and matches its teacher on success rate while using 5x fewer NFEs. We release our code at https://github.com/genesistherapeutics/decaf.

Accurate oceanic forecasting is critical for climate monitoring and disaster early warning. However, ocean spatiotemporal forecasting encounters the double challenges of modeling complex dynamical systems and ensuring computational efficiency. We present Koopman Fourier Time-Differentiable (KFTD) Network, a time continuous twostage paradigm that decouples interpolation from prediction to achieve efficient and scalable spatiotemporal modeling. We map complex nonlinear dynamics into the Koopman linear space and exploit Fourier analysis to enable continuous time interpolation at arbitrary sub-steps. A lightweight residual network consumes the high fidelity intermediate states to yield the final forecast. Unlike diffusion models, KFTD eliminates multi step noise sampling and directly evolves the system in continuous time, yielding a 4 computational speedup. We further introduce a DPP Loss that supports arbitrary PDE constraints in an endtoend manner, breaking the physical consistency bottleneck of pure data-driven approaches. Empirical results on four ocean datasets confirm that our continuous time framework reduces MSE by an average of 5.6% (up to 12.7% for SST) and improves efficiency over MCVD by 76.25%.

Multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing the continuously evolving correlation structure among interacting variables. Existing state-space models process time series by scanning tokenized temporal or spatial sequences, discarding the evolutionary geometric structure. We address this limitation by introducing manifold constraints into state-space modeling: treating the cross-variable correlation structure as a continuous trajectory on the symmetric positive definite manifold, whose Riemannian geometric features, tangent space linearity, and Frechet mean centrality act as a principled geometric regularizer that guides and stabilizes the selective scanning dynamics of SSMs. We propose SPDM, a geometry-aware SSM architecture that realizes this principle through two cooperating mechanisms: a manifold trajectory path that projects dynamically evolving covariance matrices from the SPD manifold to a Euclidean tangent space, and a geometric gating scheme that directly modulates SSM's internal selective parameters based on geometric signals derived from the manifold trajectory. The parameterization preserves the linear-time complexity of the Mamba parallel scan while embedding rich structural constraints, making the architecture preserve prediction accuracy and computational efficiency simultaneously. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world benchmark datasets establish state-of-the-art forecasting performance, and further studies confirm that geometrically constrained state-space dynamics are the dominant architectural factor behind its performance gains.

Multi-turn LLM agents fan short queries into long trajectories of tool calls, search results, and intermediate reasoning. Both KV memory and KV read bandwidth grow by orders of magnitude across a single trajectory, making the key-value (KV) cache, not parameter compute, the dominant serving bottleneck for long-horizon agents. We introduce IntentKV, learned KV pruning that keeps the base LLM frozen. IntentKV maintains a session-level QueryMemory of cross-turn intent, scores live history tokens with a memory-attention rule, and adds a zero-initialized residual head with cross-attention over current-query K-vectors. To stay composable with prefix caches, eviction is a slot-map redirection: dropped positions route to a sentinel dead slot while surviving K/V rows, RoPE phases, and slot identities stay in place. IntentKV matches the no-pruning full-cache baseline with almost no accuracy drop under tight KV budgets: at an 8k KV budget, mean peak request tokens drop 23.9% on Qwen3-8B and 30.7% on Qwen2.5-14B. On the 100 longest BCP queries that all methods complete on Qwen2.5-14B, IntentKV-8k further cuts worst-case peak request tokens from 92.3k to 20.5k, a 77.8% reduction, and worst-case raw KV reads from 411M to 31M, a 92.6% reduction.

Choosing the wrong synthetic generator for time-series foundation model pretraining is costly: under identical training budgets, the best and worst generators produce up to a $2\times$ gap in forecasting error, yet the field has no principled way to make this choice. The problem is compounded by the fact that generator rankings are not stable across architectures: across 11 generator families evaluated on Chronos-T5-Mini and Moirai-Small trained from scratch, we find that which generators are useful depends on the model architecture. Rather than solving the generator selection problem, we sidestep it: a simple equal-weight mixture of all generators matches or beats the best individual generator for both architectures, and composing this mixture with real data yields the strongest pretraining corpora overall. Synthetic pretraining is therefore a corpus composition problem, not a generator selection problem, and composition choices should be validated per model family rather than assumed to transfer.

Multimodal clinical learning is increasingly important for integrating diverse patient data, including imaging, text, and personalised health records. However, it faces two fundamental challenges: i) modality missingness, where arbitrary subsets of modalities are unavailable at a given patient visit, ii) longitudinal dynamics, where the diagnostic significance of an observation depends on the patient's evolving disease trajectory over time. Existing methods address these challenges in isolation: missing-modality frameworks treat each visit as an independent static snapshot and discard temporal context, while longitudinal models often assume complete modality availability and degrade under systematic modality incompleteness. We propose LongMoE (Longitudinal Mixture-of-Experts), the unified framework to jointly address both challenges. LongMoE combines a context-aware imputation module with an attentional tokenization module that captures frequency-domain temporal patterns across irregular visit sequences, a trajectory-aware encoder for modeling disease progression, and context-conditioned Sparse MoE routing for patient-specific expert selection. Experiments on ADNI, OASIS-3, and MIMIC-IV show that LongMoE improves robustness under missing or weak contemporaneous modalities and remains competitive in full-modality settings, establishing a strong foundation for longitudinally-aware multimodal clinical learning.

We recast predictive coding as continuous-time proximal gradient descent applied to a regularized maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) objective. We study first a single-level problem and then a multi-level hierarchy. For the single-level problem, we show that proximal gradient descent is precisely a leaky firing-rate network: the membrane leak, the effective recurrent matrix, the local synaptic drive, and the static nonlinearity all follow from one optimization principle, and the resulting circuit is the one proposed by Rao and Ballard. The prior selects the nonlinearity through its proximal operator, and the likelihood precision sets the gain on the observation. For the hierarchy, we show that a classical variable-splitting relaxation of the deep MAP problem yields hierarchical predictive coding as the interconnection of local and distributed solvers. In probabilistic modeling terms, this relaxation replaces the directed generative chain by an undirected Markov random field whose node potentials are the level-wise priors. Each level then applies its own activation function, namely the proximal operator of its prior.

Synthetic data is increasingly promoted as a privacy-preserving substitute for releasing sensitive tabular records, yet its central adversarial threat (reconstruction, the recovery of an individual's hidden attribute values from a synthetic release and a handful of known quasi-identifiers) has been studied only in scattered, hard-to-compare settings. We systematize reconstruction (equivalently, attribute inference) attacks on de-identified and synthetic tabular data. We contribute a taxonomy that organizes attacks by the structure they exploit; a broad, controlled empirical evaluation, pitting fourteen attacks against thirteen synthetic data generation (SDG) methods across five benchmark datasets; and a set of new attacks that fill gaps in the taxonomy, one of which (CoBP-RA) is the strongest attack we measure. We also introduce a methodology for interpreting what attack success means: a memorization test that distinguishes reconstruction of the population distribution from memorization of training records, and a reduction that places reconstruction and membership inference on a single comparable scale. Our findings: the choice of SDG method governs risk far more than the choice of attack; differential privacy reduces reconstruction steadily up to epsilon approximately 10, above which reconstruction risk levels off for all six DP mechanisms we sweep, bounded by what each synthesizer can represent rather than by its noise; de-identification methods are the most exposed, with diffusion the only synthesizer close behind; and most reconstruction reflects distributional structure rather than memorization, concentrating individual risk on atypical records. Our attacks and infrastructure are externally validated by our first-place finish in the 2025 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Collaborative Research Cycle.

A growing body of work points to the great promise of AI systems that can continually expand their capabilities as they operate in an open-ended environment. But yet there is no coherent definition of open-endedness or theory about how an agent ought to explore an open-ended environment. We introduce an information-theoretic definition based on a new concept – the ${\textit bit-equivalent}$ – which quantifies the information required to attain each level of expected reward. We consider an environment to be open-ended if an agent can attain linear growth in the bit-equivalent. We establish that classical bandit environments are not open-ended and formulate a bandit environment that is. We also introduce an algorithm that achieves open-ended learning in this environment.

Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are increasingly used to steer language models, but feature steering is rarely clean: the same intervention can behave inconsistently across contexts and perturb unrelated features. We introduce a pre-intervention screening framework for forecasting SAE steering side effects from feature statistics computed before steering. We operationalize side effects along two axes of steering modularity, effect stability and collateral spread, and evaluate GPT-2-small, Pythia-70M-deduped, Gemma-2-2B, and Llama-3.1-8B across ReLU, JumpReLU, and TopK SAE dictionaries. Across these settings, decoder geometry, activation statistics, co-activation structure, and direct-logit footprint predict steering modularity better than frequency-only and activation-magnitude baselines. The signal is strongest in GPT-2-small, Pythia-70M, and Llama-3.1-8B, where it survives residualization against magnitude-related confounds, and weaker in Gemma-2-2B. Held-out screening shows that ranking unseen features by predicted cleanliness can select features that steer more cleanly on fresh contexts, but the successful axis varies by setting: GPT-2 improves most cleanly, Pythia improves mainly on stability, Llama mainly on collateral, and Gemma only partially. A controlled Llama Scope width comparison shows that the predictive signal persists under a 32K-to-128K dictionary-width change, although the screening payoff becomes less stable. Overall, SAE steering side effects are predictable in advance, but the useful predictor signature and transferred modularity axis are model- and dictionary-setting dependent.

Peer-referral programs help connect populations at high risk for HIV and other infectious diseases with testing and prevention services when conventional outreach is ineffective. However, referral vouchers and incentives are limited, and standard operational guidelines give each participant the same fixed number of vouchers, ignoring differences in referral capacity. Motivated by our collaboration with public health practitioners, we study how to allocate a fixed voucher budget adaptively across participants and rounds to maximize total recruitment. Prior work assumes future recruits are i.i.d. from a population-level distribution and summarizes the recruitment frontier only by its size, ignoring covariate-dependent recruitment potential. We propose Generative Frontier Planning (GFP), which learns referral capacity with a censored count model and referrer-conditioned recruit covariates with a conditional diffusion model. Its structured value function yields a deterministic Bellman backup shared by fitted value iteration and planning, while inducing diminishing returns that give intra-round greedy allocation a (1-1/e)-approximation guarantee for each fixed round budget. Cross-round selection then determines how much budget to spend. We evaluate GFP on two data-calibrated recruitment environments constructed from de-identified recruiter-recruit records: a public ICPSR respondent-driven sampling dataset and a dataset provided by FHI 360, an international global health nonprofit. GFP recruits up to 21.5% more individuals than the strongest baseline under the same budget, showing its potential for resource-limited peer-referral programs.

Modern language models represent text using discrete token-level embeddings, which forces recurring multi-token patterns to be learned implicitly across Transformer layers. Both Over-tokenized Transformers and Engram attempt to address this limitation by explicitly incorporating multi-token (n-gram) memories. However, they rely on separate hash tables for each n-gram order, which introduces hash collisions and prevents nested n-grams from sharing the underlying latent structures. To address these issues, we propose Tensorized Engram (TN-gram), a compact memory module that represents tensorized n-gram embeddings through shared factors in the Canonical Polyadic (CP) form. TN-gram learns shared token-position factors together with order-absorption vectors to encode the embeddings of different n-gram order. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TN-gram matches or even outperforms Engram-style n-gram modules while requiring much fewer parameters.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a dominant paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Recent tree-based methods such as TreeRPO extend flat trajectory sampling with tree-structured rollouts to obtain dense, step-level reward signals without a separate process reward model. However, not all trees are equally informative: trees where all leaves succeed, all leaves fail, or the policy already predicts the reward distribution contribute little to gradient updates, wasting compute. We introduce CATPO (Critique-Augmented Tree Policy Optimization), which diagnoses and addresses this waste at the tree level. CATPO first scores each tree via a tree informativeness score, F(T), combining leaf-outcome diversity with policy-reward decorrelation at zero extra compute. For dead-wrong trees where all branches fail, CATPO applies critique-guided healing: it locates the shallowest failure point, generates a natural-language critique, and grafts refined continuations to recover training signal. Finally, an informativeness-weighted loss scales each tree's gradient contribution by its normalized score, concentrating parameter updates on the most informative trees while preserving overall gradient magnitude. Experiments on Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B trained with the MATH dataset show that CATPO achieves 37.5% macro accuracy across four benchmarks (AIME24, MATH-500, OlympiadBench, and MinervaMath), improving over TreeRPO by 1.9% and GRPO by 4.8%.

We propose GENERIC-FNO, a neural operator that embeds the metriplectic (GENERIC) degeneracy structure of nonequilibrium thermodynamics in function space, coupling reversible, energy-conserving dynamics to irreversible, entropy-producing dynamics via the degeneracy conditions. Prior structure-preserving neural operators enforce at most one conservation law or a Hamiltonian form, and thermodynamically consistent learning has been confined to finite-dimensional, graph, or particle systems. GENERIC-FNO learns the energy and entropy functionals as neural operators and builds the reversible and irreversible operators as diagonal Fourier multipliers flanked by rank-one projections that enforce both degeneracy conditions exactly, by construction, with no penalty, update projection, or residual; the Jacobi identity is not enforced. The identities hold to machine precision (~10^-13) for any initialization, dimension, or resolution, so the continuous-time dynamics conserve the learned energy and produce the learned entropy exactly, with explicit time stepping adding only an O(dt^2) drift. These are guarantees about the learned functionals within GENERIC's scope of closed conservative-dissipative dynamics, not a certificate of physical accuracy, and the (E,S,L,M) decomposition is not unique; we make this gauge freedom explicit and propose a gauge-invariant dissipation diagnostic independent of the learned functionals. Across three backbones (1D/2D FNO, DeepONet) and four canonical scalar PDEs, the guarantees transfer zero-shot over a 4x super-resolution range and hold in 3D; the diagnostic identifies the reversible and the most dissipative system in every backbone; and over 200-step rollouts, where every unconstrained model we test diverges or collapses, GENERIC-FNO stays bounded, at half the parameters but 4-10x the compute, while losing accuracy on pure transport and on the smallest 1D backbone.

As language models are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents, they must coordinate with others over long horizons in open-ended interactive tasks. Yet existing evaluations rarely test these demands together, instead emphasising single-agent tasks, short interactions, or highly structured multi-agent settings. We introduce $alem$, a JAX-based benchmark for open-ended multi-agent coordination built on Craftax-like dynamics. Alem embeds procedurally generated coordination tasks, soft specialisation, communication, and controllable coordination difficulty into a long-horizon survival world with exploration, crafting, trading, and combat. We evaluate $13$ modern LLMs zero-shot within homogeneous teams, with trained MARL agents as reference points. Current LLM agents remain far from solving alem, averaging only ~6% normalised return, but their failures are not uniform. On the hardest coordination setting, zero-shot Gemini-3.1-Pro-High approaches MARL agents trained for one billion steps, while GPT-5.4-High achieves strong base-task reward but much lower coordination reward. This contrast shows that individual task competence does not imply coordination competence. Ablations show that communication is the largest contributor to coordination, while memory and reasoning help when used to maintain multi-step plans. Overall, our results identify coordination as a distinct bottleneck for frontier LLM agents, separate from single-agent capabilities. Alem makes this bottleneck measurable and provides a controlled testbed for developing agents that communicate, allocate roles, and execute shared plans. Code is available at https://github.com/alem-world/alem-env.

We introduce CHIAR-Former (CHIAroscuro Attention-based tRansFormer), an efficient transformer that routes each token to either DCT spectral mixing (O(d log d), sub-quadratic) or full self-attention (O(n^2 d), quadratic in sequence length n) based on per-token spectral entropy H(x) in [0,1], which measures the frequency-domain complexity of each token embedding x. We make three contributions: (1) we discover routing collapse – a three-operator system collapses to DCT+Attention, revealing the optimal operator subset; (2) we propose a learned task-level MetaRouter g = sigma(Linear(x-bar)) in [0,1], where x-bar is the batch-mean embedding and g soft-blends spectral and identity paths end-to-end; and (3) we demonstrate 35-40% FLOP reduction at 400M parameters with a 3.93 PPL cost on WikiText-103 (Test PPL 27.51 vs. 23.58). Under mixed-dataset training, CHIAR-Former dramatically outperforms full attention on small corpora, confirming the regularisation value of spectral mixing. The MetaRouter stabilises at g ~ 0.22, indicating that at scale the model reaches a robust compute-quality equilibrium: attention layers absorb representational complexity while spectral preprocessing efficiently anchors low-frequency structure.

This methodological study analyzes the effects of collinearity, effective dimensionality, and cluster stability in a 2023 study of US airline profit cycles from 1995 to 2020 by Renold et al., which uses k-means clustering, principal component analysis, and system dynamic modelling.We replicate their clustering experiment in three spaces – the original 7-dim. raw-variable space, a 3-dim. PC score space, and a 4-dim. PC score space using their dataset. We show that the six-cluster taxonomy is geometrically robust: k-means in 3-PC space produces bit-for-bit identical cluster assignments relative to 7D raw space. As a nonlinearity check we apply kernel PCA under six kernels spanning three families plus a linear baseline. The kernels confirm an intrinsically linear manifold with no detectable curvature. The silhouette criterion reveals that the dataset structurally supports only three clusters, not six. Collinearity in the raw 7D space suppresses the silhouette signal. A kernel ridge regression check confirms no nonlinear accuracy gain over linear ridge once the COVID19 year is excluded. Together, these results argue for clustering on PC scores rather than raw variables in collinearity-prone panel data.

Score-based generative models have had remarkable success over the last decade in generating a diverse set of visually plausible images. A variety of architectures including CNNs, U-Nets, and Transformers have been used as the score-approximation network in such diffusion modeling; however, to date, relatively little is known about how these architectural choices impact generative behavior. In this work, to provide insight into this area, we propose an analytically solvable parameterization of the score function using an expansion in a 2D orthogonal wavelet basis. In particular, we derive interpretable optimal score functions in terms of the moments of the data distribution. We use this parametrization to provide an architecture-agnostic, moment-based analysis that reveals which attributes of the data distribution tend to matter most for denoising. Our score machine is flexible enough to partially mimic the relevant inductive biases of multiple architectures, including U-Nets, and CNNs, taking a step towards understanding why different score architectures can exhibit distinct generative behavior. Since our score is solvable in terms of the moments of the data, we can begin to understand how the data distribution interacts with the score network to produce the behavior we observe in diffusion models.

Predicting the generalization performance of deep neural networks without relying on hold-out validation data is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. While Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) drives the optimization of these highly parameterized models, its heavy-tailed, non-Gaussian dynamics induce complex, scale-invariant trajectories in the parameter space. In this paper, we propose a novel generalization measure based on the Fourier fractal dimension of the network's weight variations. By analyzing the characteristic function of the Lévy-driven stochastic differential equations in the frequency domain, we extract a metric that robustly captures the geometric complexity of the learning process. Furthermore, we introduce a customized Fourier-based optimizer designed to actively regularize this fractal dimension during training. Extensive empirical evaluations on the CIFAR-10, SVHN, and MNIST datasets demonstrate that our proposed Fourier generalization measure exhibits a strong correlation with the actual generalization gap. Our method achieves state-of-the-art Kendall rank correlation coefficients, outperforming a wide array of existing norm-based, margin-based, and PAC-Bayesian measures. Ultimately, this work highlights the potential of frequency-domain fractal analysis as both a powerful predictor for model generalizability and a principled foundation for developing more stable optimization algorithms.

Network dynamics - including spreading, influence maximisation, and epidemic modelling - remain largely confined to the transductive paradigm, where models are trained on a single network and cannot be reused on unseen graphs without retraining. We argue that inductive cross-network generalisation is a necessary prerequisite for Graph Foundation Models (GFMs) in this domain and propose four design properties towards this goal. As a proof of concept, ts-net (TopSpreadersNetwork), trained solely on synthetic multilayer networks (MLNs), demonstrates zero-shot generalisation to real-world MLNs of varying size and layer count, outperforming classical heuristics and transductive baselines on three of four metrics. Based on ts-net's performance, we further outline five open challenges towards building GFMs for network dynamics: scale, many-layer generalisation, self-supervised pretraining, cross-task transfer, and node-attribute integration.

Externally controlled survival trials are increasingly used when concurrent randomized controls are infeasible, particularly in oncology and rare-disease settings with time-to-event endpoints. We target an average-treatment-effect-on-the-treated (ATT)-type marginal hazard-ratio estimand, comparing treatment with counterfactual control in the treated trial population, and estimate it using inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) Cox regression. Valid inference is challenging because IPW Cox regression depends on the weights through both event contributions and risk-set averages, making flexible machine-learning nuisance estimation difficult to incorporate directly. Building on machine-learning-assisted generalized entropy calibration (MEC) by Lee and Kim (2026), we propose MEC-Cox for ATT-weighted IPW Cox regression. The method begins with normalized source-propensity-score odds weights for external controls and then applies Bregman calibration to balance cross-fitted prognostic summaries between external controls and treated trial patients. The calibration basis may include control-survival predictions, Cox linear predictors, penalized-survival-model predictions, or other prognostic-score summaries. MEC-updated weights therefore play a dual role as source-transport and prognostic-score balancing weights. We establish consistency, characterize a calibration-induced efficiency gain, and develop a stacked sandwich variance estimator. Simulations show that MEC-Cox can reduce bias, increase efficiency, and improve coverage through flexible machine-learning-assisted adjustment.

This paper investigates a novel concept of time series geolocalization, where the goal is to infer the geographic origin of each raw time series. Successful geolocalization can provide spatial context to time series, enabling downstream location-aware applications. We formalize the problem, adapt core ideas from image geolocalization to establish strong baselines, and propose GeoGNN, a two-tower architecture. During training, GeoGNN's spatial tower learns embeddings of geographic cell candidates by leveraging the geographic adjacency graph, while the temporal tower extracts informative representations from time series. During inference, each temporal representation is matched against candidate geographic embeddings using dot-product similarity, combined with an auxiliary classification head, to predict the time series' associated geographic origin. Experiments on large-scale, countrywide electricity-consumption datasets demonstrate that GeoGNN achieves the best performance across datasets and enhances both fine- and coarse-grained geolocalization accuracy by ~27% on average.

Many real-world queries over personal data span multiple applications and require structured planning, as individual tools expose only partial information. While LLMs show strong reasoning and tool use, reliably executing multi-step, cross-tool queries remains challenging. We introduce a system that converts natural language queries into structured graphs and executes them via a deterministic planner. Our approach uses depth-first search to resolve dependencies and combine results across tools, improving reliability and enabling queries beyond traditional keyword-based search. We demonstrate high accuracy even with smaller or locally hosted LLMs.

A key premise in leading arguments for existential risk from artificial intelligence is that malfunctioning artificial agents could not be easily shut down. This motivates the catastrophic shutdown problem of ensuring that agents can be shut down before causing an existential catastrophe. A range of arguments and theorems are offered to suggest that solving the catastrophic shutdown problem is difficult, bolstering arguments for existential risk and motivating a search for solutions to the catastrophic shutdown problem. This paper argues for two conclusions. First, existing arguments require substantial additional assumptions and evidence to play the desired role in motivating existential risk concerns. Second, concern for the catastrophic shutdown problem has led to technical solutions that impose a high safety tax on model performance. These results redirect research towards the identified assumptions and provide guidance for technical alignment strategies.

We study the symmetric multi-type orthogonal non-negative matrix tri-factorization problem, where several symmetric non-negative matrices are simultaneously approximated by factors of the form $GS_{i}G^{\top}$, with a shared non-negative and orthogonal factor $G$. This model is motivated by clustering and network analysis, where non-negativity improves interpretability and orthogonality gives a natural assignment-type structure to the latent factor. Since the resulting optimization problem is highly non-convex, we develop two heuristic algorithms for computing high-quality local solutions. The first one is a fixed point method derived from the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions after adding a penalty term for the orthogonality constraint. The second one is a three-stage ADAM-based method that combines non-negativity-preserving optimization, orthogonalization, and restricted ADAM refinement on the feasible set. We evaluate both methods on synthetic data, including noisy instances, and on citation network benchmarks. The synthetic experiments show that both algorithms recover factorizations close to the optimum and remain stable under noise. On real networks, the learned embeddings are competitive with or better than standard baselines such as SVD, node2vec, and classical link prediction heuristics in link prediction, node clustering, and node classification tasks.

Finite element analysis (FEA) is essential for structural design but remains computationally expensive, particularly when evaluating multiple design iterations or load scenarios. Machine learning surrogate models offer a promising alternative, yet most approaches struggle with a critical limitation: generalizing across varying geometries. This work presents a mesh graph network (MGN) for predicting von Mises stress fields in 2D structural components with arbitrary hole geometries. Unlike traditional machine learning approaches that use absolute node coordinates as features, the proposed model builds on existing MGN frameworks that encode node types (e.g., fixed boundary, free surface, hole edge), relative edge features (distance between neighbors), and global features (applied load). This architecture is inherently translation- and rotation-invariant, enabling generalization to unseen geometries without retraining. The MGN was trained on 11 plate geometries under 20 load conditions and evaluated on 7 unseen geometries and 3 unseen loads. In the most favorable case, the model achieves $R^2 \geq 0.97$ on an unseen geometry and unseen load, compared to $R^2 \approx 0.01$–$0.86$ for conventional models (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting , K-Nearest Neighbors) trained on identical data. However, even in less favorable cases, the MGN model still outperforms conventional models. This work extends the mesh-based simulation framework of Pfaff et al. (arXiv:2010.03409) to structural mechanics, demonstrating that graph neural networks can serve as efficient surrogates for finite element analysis across varying geometries.

Quantum reinforcement learning (QRL) is a promising approach to learn effective decision strategies across several applications with stochastic environments. Instead of directly modeling the random variables that govern these environments, existing QRL architectures indirectly approximate environment behavior by estimating expected outcomes, which limits their expressive power and adaptive potential. Overcoming such challenges requires a novel QRL approach that exploits the distributional nature of quantum computers to directly model environment random variables as quantum state distributions. Hence, in this paper, a novel framework dubbed quantum-native reinforcement learning (QnRL) is proposed. QnRL is a distributional RL framework that learns conditional distributions naturally in Hilbert space via superimposed and entangled quantum states. Thus, QnRL can directly model the behavior of stochastic learning environments via the natural properties of quantum systems. QnRL accomplishes this via a novel, proposed quantum amplitude kickback (QuAK) algorithm that enables comparing the $n$-th power of the $m$-th moment of multiple superimposed distributions. It is theoretically proven that a conditional action policy distribution is distilled from the moments of a quantum generative model entirely within Hilbert space via QuAK, and optimized via QnRL. This complex distribution composition is also shown to provide extra dimensions for expressing environment correlations that are unknown to purely classical and classically-sampled quantum distributional models. Experimental results across diverse environments show that QnRL achieves up to $82.9\%$ higher evaluation scores, with up to $94.3\%$ fewer parameters on average, more accurately estimates the expected return for unseen observations, and better adapts to varying stochastic conditions compared to the baseline.

When an LLM agent fails – issues a refund it should not have, calls the wrong tool, leaks data – existing tooling answers what happened (observability) or whether it passed (evaluation), but not which step caused the failure. The obvious heuristics are wrong: the step that executes the harmful action is usually not the step that decided on it, and LLM-judge attribution is correlational and unreliable (state-of-the-art step-level accuracy on the Who&When benchmark is about 14%). We present Causal Agent Replay (CAR), which answers the question by intervention: it models an agent run as a structural causal model, applies a do-operation to a step, and re-executes the trajectory forward under the same stochastic policy, measuring the shift in the outcome distribution. We define an intervention algebra over agent steps, a single-step contrastive estimator whose point-of-commitment rule resolves a confound specific to stochastic run-forward, and a budget-bounded Monte-Carlo Shapley estimator that splits credit across interacting steps. Every effect is reported with confidence intervals. We validate against synthetic structural causal models with planted ground truth: the contrastive estimator recovers the pivotal step, and Shapley recovers a two-step interaction (0.44, 0.45, ~0; efficiency sum 0.909 versus the analytic 0.91). CAR is open source and runs on hosted or free local models.