Papers

Agentic forecasting is important for decision-making in dynamic environments, but it remains challenging because agents must reason from incomplete, time-limited evidence and produce calibrated probabilities before outcomes are resolved. Memory provides a natural mechanism for transferring experience from resolved forecasts to future prediction tasks. However, existing agent-memory methods are not tailored to forecasting, as they typically store past interactions, reflections, or factual associations without explicitly representing reusable predictive factors or calibration knowledge. We propose ForecastCompass (FoCo), an adaptive factor-based memory framework for agentic forecasting. FoCo organizes forecasting experience with a hierarchical forecasting-task taxonomy, enabling retrieval task-relevant forecasting knowledge. It maintains two complementary memory components: factor memory, which captures reusable predictive dimensions, and reasoning memory, which encodes probability updating, uncertainty handling, and calibration principles. Using retrospective analyses as learning signals, FoCo iteratively revises memory through a verbalized memory-revision procedure, enabling the agent to accumulate transferable forecasting knowledge over time. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX with GPT-5-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash show that FoCo improves both probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

In the forward reinforcement-learning problem, the reward is fixed and known; the learner is asked to find a good policy or value function. Here we turn the question around. Given offline data generated by an expert, can we recover the reward the expert was optimizing? This is the inverse reinforcement learning problem, and remarkably, two communities, structural econometricians studying dynamic discrete choice (DDC) and machine learners studying entropy-regularized IRL, have been working on exactly the same probabilistic model under different names. We begin by proving their equivalence. We then develop the classical identification result of Magnac and Thesmar and the classical computational paradigms that grew out of it: Rust's nested fixed-point algorithm, the conditional-choice-probability approach of Hotz and Miller, and the two temporal-difference approaches of Adusumilli and Eckardt: linear semi-gradient TD and approximate value iteration. Each route has its limits: dimensionality, transition-kernel estimation, the deadly triad, or projected fixed-point bias. We then walk through the modern ML/IRL strand: adversarial IRL, occupancy matching, IQ-Learn, and offline ML-IRL, deriving each method's actual objective and stating precisely what it does and does not identify. We close with the empirical-risk-minimization framework of Kang et al., which yields a gradient-based estimator for offline IRL/DDC.

Context management enables agentic models to solve long-horizon tasks through iterative summarization of previous interaction histories. However, this process typically incurs substantial decoding overhead for the extra summarization tokens, which significantly affect the end-to-end response latency at deployment. In this paper, we introduce CoMem, a novel framework that decouples memory management from the primary agent workflow, enabling these processes to execute in parallel. We propose a $k$-step-off asynchronous pipeline that overlaps the memory model's summarization with the agent's inference, effectively masking the latency of context processing. To ensure robustness under this asynchronous setting, we introduce a reward-driven training strategy that aligns the memory model to capture sufficient statistics for the agent's decision-making. Theoretical analysis confirms that CoMem offers a superior efficiency-effectiveness trade-off compared to coupled architectures. Our extensive experimental results on SWE-Bench-Verified show that CoMem provides 1.4x latency improvements upon vanilla long-context solutions while preserving most of the performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these latency gains scale favorably with increased system throughput, offering a modular path forward for the independent optimization of agent reasoning and memory compression.

Prompt-injection detectors are heterogeneous: each is strong on a different slice of attacks, and none is always reliable. Yet existing systems still treat detection as a fixed single-detector pipeline, committing every request to one detector's blind spots. We reframe defense as detector allocation: given a heterogeneous pool, decide per request which detectors to run and whether to escalate to an LLM judge. Our framework SCOUT (Scalable and Controllable Outcome-prediction for Uncertainty-aware Triage) makes this decision dynamic by predicting each detector's per-sample reliability and latency from how it behaved on similar past inputs, and exposes a single safety-utility threshold to the operator (where utility bundles benign-pass rate and wall-clock). To evaluate this setting, we build SCOUT-450, a benchmark that captures the structurally complex, agent-facing injections that older prompt-injection sets under-represent. On SCOUT-450, a safety-oriented operating point reduces attack-success rate by 46% and total wall-clock by 40% relative to an always-on GPT-4o judge, at a 5.1-point benign-utility drop. SCOUT also transfers to three external benchmarks (BIPIA, IPI, and IHEval), improving the safety-utility frontier.

Recent SVD based compression methods for large language models like SVD LLM and Basis Sharing can be unified under one optimization problem. While mathematical proofs and tests on Pythia models show this unified approach improves weight reconstruction error by up to 46% percent it fails in practical tasks. Downstream metrics like perplexity and accuracy severely degrade compared to standard per layer SVD LLM. The authors explain this failure mechanistically. Although the bundle method mathematically couples adjacent layers the transformer residual stream actually decouples them during forward passes. Thus per layer optimality matters more than joint cross layer optimization. The paper concludes that weight space reconstruction is a flawed objective for cross layer compression and future methods must focus on per layer activation reconstruction instead.

Activity cliffs, structurally similar compounds with large potency differences, are widely treated as intrinsic features of chemical datasets. We argue that apart from target biology, much of our cliff understanding is a consequence of the geometry induced by the chosen molecular representation, not a property of a molecule pair itself. We designed a six-step pipeline to systematically test this hypothesis. The pipeline consists of: assessing pairwise distance geometry, cliff enrichment, activity gradient distribution, persistent homology of the cliff subspace, predictive benchmarking for a chosen pair of an embedding and a metric, and eventually, analysis of the matched molecular pairs and stereoisomers. We applied the pipeline to fifteen configurations of embeddings and metrics to build a benchmark across three distinctive datasets known of activity cliffs challenges. No representation excels on all criteria: Morgan Tanimoto provides the strongest cliff enrichment and cross-scaffold generalization; MolFormer cosine provides the only meaningful stereochemical sensitivity; MACCS and RDKit Dice fingerprints are most sensitive to matched-molecular-pair transformations; ChemBERTa fails uniformly due to embedding collapse. These findings are not a ranking. They reflect the fact that different representations encode different aspects of molecular recognition, and that choosing one implicitly defines what an activity cliff actually is.

Unlearning in diffusion models aims to remove undesirable data or concepts while preserving the utility of pretrained models – two fundamentally conflicting objectives. We propose a principled constrained optimization framework that formulates unlearning as minimizing the deviation from a pretrained model, subject to explicit separation constraints from the unlearning distributions. Specifically, we formulate three constrained optimization problems based on reverse and forward KL divergences, and likelihood constraints. The first two generalize existing approaches for concept and data unlearning, while the third offers a novel and natural formulation for unlearning. Despite the nonconvexity of the KL constraints, we establish strong duality for all three problems, enabling us to explicitly characterize their optimal solutions as unlearning targets and develop primal-dual algorithms for each formulation. Experimental results demonstrate that our KL-constrained approach achieves superior retention-unlearning tradeoffs compared to weight-based baselines for concept and data unlearning, and that our likelihood-based approach matches unlearning effectiveness while better preserving retained concepts compared to baselines.

Accurately modeling the macroscopic dynamics of high-dimensional microscopic systems is of broad interest across the sciences. Many data-driven approaches learn a low-dimensional latent state through an autoencoder trained for pointwise input reconstruction. These methods typically assume a fixed ordering of microscopic degrees of freedom in the input. However, in many settings, such as particle systems, the microscopic state is inherently unordered. This motivates an autoencoder framework that learns permutation-invariant latent representations. To this end, we adopt a permutation-invariant encoder and design the decoder to reconstruct the mass distribution centered at the observed points rather than per-sample reconstruction. We then jointly learn the macroscopic dynamics of the observables together with the latent states. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method across a range of microscopic settings, including learning the energy dynamics in interacting particle systems, predicting mixing dynamics in Lennard-Jones fluids, and modeling the stretching dynamics from video data of polymers moving in an elongational force field.

Differentiating between oyster species is important for developing new commercial oyster species suited to production systems and is critical for traceability in seafood supply chains. Common methods, such as DNA profiling, are destructive and time consuming. The possibility of using hyperspectral imaging (HSI) for discriminating between Black-Lip rock (BL) and Sydney rock (SR) oysters was investigated. Live BL and SR samples (N = 156) were scanned with a HSI camera (950-2515nm). Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis and Convolutional Neural Networks were trained with Monte Carlo Cross Validation to distinguish BL and SR oysters from the spectral reflectance of their left and rights valves. The PLS-DA model successfully distinguished between the species from both the left and right valves with a median test set classification accuracy of 100%, out performing the CNN with 83% and 96% respectively. Elemental and mineralogical composition in the surface and cross-section of oyster valves were measured with electron microscopy. Analysis of the right valve revealed a greater number of layers in BL compared to SR (4 vs 2). The concentrations of carbon and oxygen varied in the outer layer of the right valves, with BL being rich in carbon and SR being rich in oxygen. The variation in carbon and oxygen concentrations observed between BL and SR right valves may reflect differences in the relative abundance or composition of chitin and glycoproteins. This is supported by model-derived wavelength importance corresponding to vibrational modes of functional groups characteristic of these compounds. Transmittance analysis revealed that light was transmitted through the valves, around the valve edges, indicating that the spectral signatures may have been influenced by the other valve or the meat. Ultimately, the findings highlight an effective rapid, non-destructive methodology for oyster species.

High-dimensional biomedical data, such as cell-by-gene matrices, are increasingly generated temporally. However, Manifold Learning algorithms, like t-SNE and UMAP, cannot incorporate time-ordering in their layouts, obfuscating the dynamics of cell types or other classes. As a solution, we present IRIS, a new Manifold Learning algorithm that structures layouts both chronologically and by manifold topology. IRIS can visualize a wide range of dynamic biomedical data, including scRNA-seq, comparative metagenomics, and literature.

Preference alignment is a crucial post-training step for large language models (LLMs) to ensure their outputs align with human values. However, post-training on real human preference data raises privacy concerns, as these datasets often contain sensitive user prompts and human judgments. To address this, we propose DPPrefSyn, a novel algorithm for generating differentially private (DP) synthetic preference data to enable privacy-preserving preference alignment. DPPrefSyn is a principled framework grounded in the Bradley-Terry preference model and the intrinsic geometric structure of pairwise human preference data. It first learns an underlying preference model from private data with formal differential privacy guarantees, and then leverages the learned model together with public prompts to synthesize high-quality preference data. It exploits the shared linear structure of per-cluster reward models to effectively capture heterogeneous human preferences in private datasets, and leverages DP Principal Component Analysis (DP-PCA) to improve learning accuracy. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that DPPrefSyn achieves competitive alignment performance under strong DP guarantees. These findings highlight the potential of synthetic preference data as a practical alternative for privacy-preserving preference alignment across a broad range of applications. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to generate DP synthetic preference data for LLM alignment. Our code is available at https://github.com/gfengyu/Differentially-Private-Preference-Data-Synthesis.

Conditional generative models have recently achieved remarkable success in various applications. However, a suitable metric for evaluating the reliability of these models, which takes into account their inherent uncertainty, is still lacking. Existing metrics, which typically assess a single output, may fail to capture the variability or potential risks in generation. In this paper, we propose a novel evaluation metric called reliability score based on conformal prediction, which measures the worst-case performance within the prediction set at a pre-specified confidence level. However, computing this score is challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the output space and the nonconvexity of both the metric function and the prediction set. To efficiently compute this score, we introduce Conformal ReLiability (CReL), a framework that can (i) construct the prediction set with desired coverage; and (ii) accurately optimize the reliability score within the constructed prediction set. We provide theoretical results on coverage and demonstrate empirically that our method produces more informative prediction sets than existing approaches. Experiments on synthetic data and the image-to-text and text-to-image tasks further demonstrate the interpretability of our new metric, and the validity and effectiveness of our computational framework. Source code can be found at https://ggc29.github.io/CReL/.

We identify a new dimension for enhancing rollout diversity in Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for LLMs. While GRPO relies on diverse rollouts, prevailing strategies primarily increase diversity by injecting more token-level randomness, which may introduce step-wise noise and lead to incoherent trajectories. We uncover that smaller models within the same model family inherently exhibit higher policy-level diversity, indicated by their superior pass@k relative to larger counterparts as sample counts increase. Unlike token-level noise, this diversity is temporally correlated, preserves logical consistency, and provides structured exploration signals for gradient estimation. We thus propose S2L-PO (Small-to-Large Policy Optimization), a framework that leverages fixed small models as natural explorers to train larger models. To balance exploration and exploitation, we design a progressive annealing strategy that transitions from offline small-model rollouts to the large learner's own sampling. This shift elegantly avoids mid-training performance drops caused by the small model's capacity limits, achieving faster convergence and unlocking a higher performance ceiling. S2L-PO improves accuracy on diverse mathematical reasoning benchmarks (e.g., +8.8% on AIME 24 using a 1.7B explorer to guide the 8B model) while reducing rollout compute.

We introduce a set of synthetic algorithmic tasks to detect cross-lingual gaps in the abilities of large language models. Our benchmark is commensurate across languages, since it requires models to perform the same underlying task in different languages; scalable, since each task can be generated at varying levels of complexity allowing it to be adapted to models with different capabilities; quantifiable, since every task admits an objective notion of correctness; and transparent, since tasks are generated from simple templates that can be readily audited for translation errors. Because our benchmark focuses on algorithmic tasks, differential performance is a sufficient – but not necessary – indicator of cross-lingual gaps. Nevertheless, we show through extensive experiments that our benchmark exposes persistent cross-lingual gaps in multiple state-of-the-art models.

Graph classification is a core task in graph data mining with widespread real-world applications. Recent advances in graph neural networks (GNNs) have led to substantial performance improvements for graph classification. However, existing GNNs are typically forced to make predictions even under high uncertainty or unknown conditions, resulting in unreliable decisions that can severely impact downstream tasks, particularly in safety-critical scenarios. To address this critical limitation, we propose AbstainGNN, a novel and theory-driven framework for graph classification with abstention, which enables GNNs to reject uncertain predictions instead of producing incorrect decisions. Specifically, AbstainGNN explicitly models both the predictive function and the abstention function, allowing for effective utilization of graph structural information. Moreover, unlike existing heuristic abstention methods, we theoretically characterize the trade-off between classification errors and rejection costs from a PAC-Bayesian generalization perspective, and derive a unified learning objective for model optimization. Guided by this theoretical insight, we further develop an efficient two-stage training strategy consisting of predictive function warm-start and abstention function calibration. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets show that AbstainGNN outperforms existing abstention methods, achieving superior classification performance under the same rejection rates.

Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning (O2O-RL) leverages an offline, pre-trained policy to minimize costly online interactions. Although data-efficient, O2O-RL is susceptible to shifts between offline and online distributions. Existing work aims to mitigate the harm of this shift by finetuning the policy on trajectory data sampled from a diffusion model. Inspired by this line of work, we propose DUAL: an efficient Diffusion Uncertainty-Aware framework for offline-to-online reinforcement Learning. DUAL utilizes the prior knowledge of the diffusion model to distill a fast-sampling diffusion actor policy and transition model in the offline phase. DUAL also employs a Laplace approximation and distance transition-state-shift detection, thereby using uncertainty quantification to improve exploration versus exploitation in the online phase. We formally show that our actor loss with the Laplace approximation provides a proxy for a principled estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Empirically, DUAL improves the online expected return over O2O-RL baselines across multiple settings and environments.

Pairwise preference data is widely used in language-model evaluation and alignment, often for model ranking, reward modeling, or preference optimization. This note formulates a more basic measurement question: given a reference distribution of pairwise preferences, what model-level quantity is estimated when we test whether a model ranks preferred responses above rejected responses? We define pairwise reference alignment as an ordinal observable induced by a model scoring function. Given a reference pair distribution $P_{\mathrm{pair}}$ over triples $(x,y^+,y^-)$, and a scalar model score $S_M(x,y)$, we define the alignment observable as the probability that the model-induced ordering agrees with the reference preference ordering. We further define a centered order-parameter-like statistic and discuss a margin-based extension. The resulting quantities admit simple finite-sample estimators and concentration bounds under independent sampling assumptions. This note does not introduce a new benchmark. It provides a conceptual and statistical formulation for pairwise reference alignment, clarifies the role of the reference pair distribution, and distinguishes the general ordinal observable from scoring choices such as normalized log-probability or energy-based scores. We also provide an initial empirical study on Qwen2.5 models and RewardBench, where the proposed statistics increase with model size and instruction tuning and vary across reference-pair subsets as predicted by the formulation.

Chain-of-thought prompting and looped Transformers both give a fixed model more test-time computation, but they differ in what they remember. Chain-of-thought stores intermediate state in generated tokens that remain in the context, whereas a looped Transformer carries state through recurrent hidden activations. We argue that this persistent mutable memory is a central resource for test-time reasoning. We compare three memory regimes, the compressed latent loop, the full sequence-state loop, and the chain-of-thought scratchpad. Our main result shows that a compressed loop is limited by the size of its recurrent state. Running the loop longer adds computation but does not by itself create a growing scratchpad, so a loop with a small recurrent state remains a small-space reasoner even when run for many steps. Under a standard complexity assumption, such loops cannot decide problems that are P-complete under logspace reductions, whereas polynomial-length chain-of-thought can. The separation is specific to compressed loops, as full sequence-state loops carry state at every input position and live in a memory-rich regime closer to explicit scratchpads. Controlled pointer-chasing and associative-recall sweeps illustrate this memory-budget view, with performance sensitive to whether the persistent-state budget matches the task's working-memory demand.

Maximum entropy reinforcement learning (MaxEnt-RL) enables robust exploration, yet practical implementations often restrict policies to simple Gaussians. While recent approaches incorporate expressive generative policies via importance-weighted supervised learning, they are prone to importance weight collapse, which limits their scalability in high-dimensional action spaces. Our key insight is to mitigate this limitation by localizing the sampling region, avoiding the weight degeneracy induced by importance sampling over the entire action space. To instantiate this insight, we introduce FLAG (Flow policy with Latent-Augmented Guidance). FLAG augments the state space with a flow latent variable and optimizes a provably consistent proxy MaxEnt-RL objective. We empirically demonstrate that FLAG enables expressive policy optimization with limited importance samples and scales to state-based high-dimensional control tasks. Furthermore, FLAG achieves state-of-the-art performance among expressive-policy MaxEnt online RL methods on state-based high-dimensional control benchmarks.

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) for deep neural networks (DNNs) is a requirement for safe adoption of AI in mission-critical settings. Several leading methods for UQ linearize DNNs to form Bayesian Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), where epistemic uncertainty is modeled via the predictive posterior distribution. Linearizing around the parameters of the final connected layer of a DNN is a commonly used approximation for reducing the computational burden of such GLMs, though it is often believed to come at the cost of degraded performance. In this work, we compare GLMs arising from full-network and last-layer linearization using both theoretical and empirical approaches. We first employ tools from random matrix theory to conduct a theoretical comparison; this analysis reveals no meaningful improvement in the UQ capabilities of full linearization. Coupled with a large-scale empirical evaluation across a range of modern machine learning tasks, we arrive at the following conclusion: a last-layer approximation yields comparable UQ performance while offering substantially improved computational efficiency.

The rapid development of large language models, each with distinct capabilities and inference costs, raises a practical deployment question: given an incoming request, which model should handle it? We present OrcaRouter, a production-oriented LLM router that combines a LinUCB-based contextual bandit over lexical and sentence-embedding features with a hybrid offline-online learning protocol. Offline, OrcaRouter obtains full-information feedback by evaluating each candidate model on a curated set of routing prompts, yielding a reward matrix used to fit one ridge regressor per arm. At deployment time, it initializes from these parameters and can optionally continue learning from bandit feedback, updating only the selected model's arm after observing its reward. At the time of our RouterArena submission (May 20, 2026), OrcaRouter-Adaptive ranked second on the public RouterArena leaderboard with an arena score of 72.08, achieving 75.54% accuracy at a cost of USD 1.00 per 1,000 queries.

Malaria remains a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, where scarce diagnostic infrastructure makes timely, accurate diagnosis particularly challenging. While deep learning offers a compelling path toward automated malaria screening, clinical adoption is hindered by computational cost and opacity in decision-making. This work benchmarks four deep learning models spanning a wide range of designed design architectures and model capacities on the NLM-Malaria dataset, jointly evaluating predictive performance, robustness, and post-hoc explainability. We find that lightweight, efficient-by-design models match their heavier counterparts in predictive performance, and the Friedman test confirms no statistically significant performance differences. CAM-based XAI methods consistently localize diagnostically relevant regions, while fine-grained attribution methods produce less targeted explanations, particularly with heavier backbones. Robustness evaluation under three types of image corruption further reveals that model confidence degrades faster than accuracy, providing a practical signal for human review. However, no XAI method is robust to corruption, with explanation reliability degrading at noise levels plausible in clinical practice, even when predictions remain accurate. These findings support the deployment of lightweight architectures for malaria diagnosis in resource-constrained settings, while highlighting the vulnerability of post-hoc explanations as an important consideration for responsible clinical deployment.

Schema matching is a fundamental step in integrating heterogeneous data sources. While Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) have revolutionized this task by capturing linguistic semantics, they typically process tabular data as serialized text sequences of standalone column descriptions. This serialization discards critical structural information – specifically, the row-level co-occurrences, i.e. the relational context – forcing models to rely solely on column header semantics or standalone distributions. To bridge this gap, we propose SemStruct, a framework that joins the semantic power of frozen PLMs with the structural inductive bias of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We model the table as a heterogeneous graph where columns and values are nodes connected by rows, allowing the GNN to propagate disambiguating context across the structure. Unlike other state-of-the-art methods that require proprietary LLM access and fine-tuning of language models, SemStruct keeps the language model frozen and trains only a lightweight structural encoder. Extensive experiments on the Valentine and SOTAB-SM benchmarks demonstrate that SemStruct achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming fully fine-tuned baselines on complex, semantically joinable datasets. Furthermore, our ablation studies reveal that row representations serve primarily as topological conduits rather than semantic entities, validating the necessity of explicit structural modeling in schema matching.

Machine learning (ML) training and inference often process data sets far exceeding GPU memory capacity, forcing them to rely on PCIe for on-demand tensor transfers, causing critical transfer bottlenecks. Lossy compression has been proposed to relieve bottlenecks but introduces workload-dependent accuracy loss, making it complex or even prohibitive to use in existing ML deployments. We explore lossless compression as an alternative that avoids this deployment complexity. We identify where lossless compression can be integrated into ML pipelines while minimizing interference with GPU execution. Based on our findings, we introduce Invariant Bit Packing (IBP), a novel lossless compression algorithm designed to minimize data transfer time for ML. IBP identifies and eliminates invariant bits across groups of tensors, improving throughput through GPU-optimized decompression that leverages warp parallelism, low-overhead bit operations, and asynchronous PCIe transfers. We provide easy-to-use APIs, showcasing them by adding IBP support to GNN training, as well as DLRM and LLM inference frameworks. IBP achieves, on average, 74% faster GNN training, 180% faster DLRM embedding lookup, and 24% faster LLM inference.

We propose CerT-MCMC, a framework that equips learned-transport Markov chain Monte Carlo with automatic, rigorous convergence certificates. A normalising flow maps a Gaussian reference to an approximation of the target posterior; the same flow then serves as both the independence Metropolis-Hastings proposal and the basis for a computable spectral-gap bound. We develop two complementary certificates. The covering certificate bounds the weight-ratio oscillation over the full proposal support via finite-sample covering arguments, yielding full-support spectral-gap bounds when a conservative gradient bound is available; its correction term scales as O(n^{-1/D}), making it rapidly weak and eventually vacuous as dimension increases. We prove a matching Omega(n^{-1/D}) lower bound, establishing that this barrier is intrinsic to pointwise Lipschitz certification. The quantile-core certificate restricts attention to a high-probability residual core on which the oscillation is controlled by one-dimensional empirical quantiles, with a finite-sample probability slack of O(n^{-1/2}), independent of the ambient dimension. On synthetic targets (D=2-20), structural-engineering posteriors (D=6,8), real-data logistic regression on the Heart Disease data set (D=13), and synthetic Bayesian logistic regression (D=20), the quantile-core certificate delivers non-vacuous spectral-gap bounds where the covering certificate is vacuous, and its spectral-gap proxy tracks empirical effective sample sizes within 7%. A negative control experiment confirms that the certificate discriminates flow quality by a factor exceeding 10x, whereas acceptance rates differ by only 1.15x. To our knowledge, the dual-certificate framework is the first to provide automatic, dimension-aware convergence certificates for learned-transport MCMC, distinguishing genuine transport failure from proof-technique limitations.

Forecasting agricultural commodity prices in emerging economies is difficult due to high volatility, frequent supply disruptions, and strong cultural influences on demand. This study introduces the Kalimati Vegetable Price Index (KVPI), a new inverse-volatility weighted composite index that aggregates 135 daily wholesale commodities from Kathmandu over ten years (2013-2023). By creating a stable macro-level signal, the KVPI reduces the noise inherent in modelling individual crops. A rich set of 64 causally valid features was developed, including festival lead-lag effects, rolling statistics, and calendar variables. Fourteen forecasting models spanning statistical, tree-based, deep learning, hybrid, and transformer architectures were rigorously evaluated across short (7-day), medium (14- and 30-day), and long-term (90-day) horizons. Tree-based ensembles proved notably robust, while classical statistical models and complex transformers struggled with the noisy dataset. The proposed Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble achieved the strongest performance, yielding a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.771, an exceptionally low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.68%, and explaining 84.5% of the variance (R-squared = 0.845) at the 90-day horizon. This open-source pipeline provides policymakers and supply chain actors in Nepal and similar markets with a practical, reliable tool for anticipating price movements and strengthening food security.

We study when large language models (LLMs) can serve as effective black-box policy optimizers for reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, i.e., when can we replace classical RL algorithms with an LLM? We explore this question by introducing Prompted Policy Optimization (PromptPO), an iterative method that prompts an LLM with Python descriptions of the state space, action space, and reward function, then has it generate and refine executable policies based on rollout feedback. Across hard exploration environments, Meta-World robotics tasks, and several real-world control problems, PromptPO often matches or exceeds the performance of standard RL baselines while using substantially fewer environment interactions. To maximize expected return, and without further explicit prompting, the policies PromptPO outputs range from tuned proportional controllers or rule-based plans to policies that run planning algorithms like value iteration. Our results demonstrate that LLM-based policy optimization is sufficient when the LLM can leverage prior knowledge about the environment or optimization strategy. PromptPO underperforms standard RL baselines in MuJoCo domains. This demonstrates possible limitations of LLM-based policy optimization to settings that requiring fine-grained continuous control.

Test-time compute (TTC) strategies have emerged as a lightweight approach to boost reasoning in large language models (LLMs). However, their application and benefits for vision-language models (VLMs) remain underexplored. We present a systematic study of TTC across seven VLMs and six benchmarks, specifically analyzing feature-based scoring and majority voting methods. We find that feature heuristics fail and voting yields only modest gains in single-model settings. We theoretically show that this limitation stems from a lack of prediction diversity: when outputs are highly correlated, voting provides little benefit. In contrast, multi-model ensembles offer richer diversity, yet standard majority voting fails to account for varying model capabilities. To address this, we propose Entropy-based TTC (ETTC), which selects the most confident prediction based on predictive entropy. Our method reduces to majority voting in the single-model case, but in model ensembles, it leverages confidence disparities to prioritize stronger models. We prove that ETTC outperforms majority voting under mild assumptions and empirically demonstrate that it consistently surpasses both voting and the best individual model. Crucially, our results show that smaller models can synergistically enhance larger ones, unlocking ensembling gains not achievable with standard strategies.

Agentic LLMs must continuously decide whether newly extracted facts should be added, merged with existing memories, or ignored, yet prior work has focused more on retrieval and storage than on principled write-side control. We frame memory evolution as a novelty-detection problem and propose SAGE, a Spherical Adaptive Gate for memory Evolution that scores candidate facts with a von Mises-Fisher-based density estimator over memory embeddings and routes them with an adaptive threshold that tracks memory-store geometry. SAGE resolves clearly novel facts as ADD, clearly redundant facts as NOOP, and sends only uncertain cases to an LLM merge step, reducing expensive write-time reasoning. On LoCoMo, SAGE achieves the best average token-F1 against Mem0 on all seven open-weight backbone comparisons, while on GPT-4o-mini it reduces add-phase API cost by 3.4$\times$ and add-phase latency by 2.5$\times$ with only a small average judge-score gap. As a drop-in binary gate for A-Mem, SAGE skips roughly 16-18% of LLM calls across five models with minimal quality change on open-weight backbones. These results suggest that novelty-aware write control is a practical lever for improving both memory quality and system efficiency in long-term agentic memory. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/swang1024/SAGE.

Geometry-aware generative models and novel view synthesis approaches have shown strong potential in visual fidelity and consistency. In parallel, equivariant representation learning has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing latent spaces where analytically known group transformations could act directly, capturing geometric structure in data and enhancing both interpretability and generalization in novel view synthesis. However, we identify that existing approaches often suffer from latent misalignment, a discrepancy between the intended group action and the actually required transformations in the latent space. Consequently, the learned latents often fail to consistently preserve the equivariant relations imposed by the underlying group symmetry. To address this, we propose Residual Latent Flow, a flow-based framework that corrects the misaligned latents, thereby improving compliance with the underlying equivariance relation. Our comprehensive experiments show that our method significantly reduces latent misalignment and improves novel view synthesis quality, under rotation groups SO(n).