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Thursday 28 May

Machine Learning

DisasterLex: An Expert Concept-to-Schema Knowledge Graph for Geospatial Reasoning in Disaster Analytics

Disasters are inevitable and increasingly costly, and effective response depends on querying structured tabular data: precise, information-dense records of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and lifeline infrastructure that underpin disaster management. Current text-to-SQL methods enable natural-language access to such tables but transfer poorly to the disaster domain, where queries span heterogeneous geospatial schemas and require reasoning over causal relations. We introduce DisasterLex, a knowledge-graph-mediated framework that inserts an Expert Knowledge Graph (EKG) of curated concepts and typed causal edges between the user query and the database, bridged to schema by concept-to-table links. The orchestration runs four stages (identifying query entities, routing to the operational domain, planning over causal edges, and grounding the SQL), restricting the schema passed to the model at each step. We instantiate it on a disaster-analytics database (36 geospatial tables, 150 columns) with an EKG of 107 concepts, 117 causal edges, and 52 concept-to-schema links, evaluated on a 75-query test set. On all seven base models spanning proprietary and open-weight families, DisasterLex beats four state-of-the-art baselines (LightRAG, HippoRAG 2, ReFoRCE, CHESS) by 1.4x to 2.75x, with absolute scores of 1.65 to 3.56 (of 5.0). Error analysis shows baseline failures cluster in routing and multi-table SQL composition, the operations our orchestration explicitly addresses. Code, data, and the EKG artifact are available at https://github.com/YimingXiao98/DisasterLex and on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20388029.
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All authors Yiming Xiao, Ankit Basu, Kai Yin, Sahil Vartak, Christian Swords, Ali Mostafavi

Machine Learning

The Long-Term Effects of Data Selection in LLM Fine-Tuning

Data selection is increasingly used to reduce the cost of large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, with recent methods prioritizing samples by current utility, diversity, quality, or influence. This paper studies a different question: when fine-tuning occurs over multiple stages, can selection strategies that look optimal now make the model less adaptable later? We introduce a long-horizon view of LLM data selection in which a selector is evaluated not only by immediate task performance, but also by future adaptation speed, forgetting, capability imbalance, and out-of-distribution robustness. We compare representative random, loss-based, gradient-based, diversity-based, quality-based, and utility-diversity selection families under a unified multi-stage protocol. Through controlled experiments designed to instantiate this protocol, we show how short-term selectors can exhibit rank reversal: they improve the current stage while slowing subsequent learning and increasing forgetting. We formalize this behavior as myopic selection, provide a simple local analysis of why it can occur, and propose a diagnostic Long-Horizon Aware Selection (LHAS) objective that augments immediate utility with coverage, future-proxy transfer, and anti-concentration terms. The study argues that data selection should be evaluated as a training intervention that shapes the model's learning trajectory, rather than only as a local data-efficiency mechanism.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.CO

True Self-Avoiding Walk for Accelerating Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Integration

We study true self-avoiding walk (TSAW) as a mechanism for improving empirical integral estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We consider finite-state adaptive sampling dynamics associated with an irreducible Markov kernel $P$ on a finite set, with stationary distribution $\pi$, in which the transition probabilities are penalized according to empirical overuse. Our main result is that the empirical occupation counts $L_t(i)$ and transition counts $N_t(i,j)$ of the resulting TSAW-based walk satisfy \[ L_t(i)-t\pi_i = O(\sqrt{\log t}) \quad\text{and}\quad N_t(i,j)-t\pi_iP_{ij}=O(\sqrt{\log t}) \qquad\text{almost surely} \] for every state $i$ and every edge $(i,j)$ with $P_{ij}>0$. Consequently, for every bounded function $f:V\to\mathbb R$, the error of our integral estimator converges as \[ \left|\frac1t\sum_{s=0}^{t-1} f(X_s)-\sum_{i\in V}\pi_i f(i)\right| = O\left(\frac{\sqrt{\log t}}{t}\right) \qquad\text{almost surely}. \] These results show that, in contrast with the usual $t^{-1/2}$ error scaling for empirical averages under standard random-walk-based methods, TSAW-based estimator yields empirical integral errors of order $O(\sqrt{\log t}/t)$ almost surely, thereby achieving a substantially sharper dependence on the sample size $t$.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Generalistic or Specific Embeddings, Which is Better? An Empirical Study on Search for Clinical Coding in Non-English Languages

Sentence-embedding models for semantic search are overwhelmingly developed and evaluated on English corpora. When applied to clinical retrieval in other languages – particularly retrieval of ICD-10-CM / CIE-10 codes – recall degrades in ways often masked by aggregate benchmarks. We study whether large generative language models can serve as data factories to close this gap. We build a two-stage retriever (bi-encoder followed by cross-encoder reranker), fine-tuned from a Spanish biomedical encoder (PlanTL-GOB-ES/bsc-bio-ehr-es) on Gemini-generated synthetic data covering English, Spanish, Catalan, Italian, Portuguese and French, and evaluate against BioBERT-ST and the un-tuned Spanish encoder. The bi-encoder alone matches BioBERT-ST on MRR (0.876 vs. 0.866) and overtakes it on R@3 (0.650 vs. 0.626) and R@5 (0.804 vs. 0.790) without English biomedical pretraining. Adding a cross-encoder reranker lifts aggregate R@5 to 0.822 and dominates on four of five languages (+0.017 Spanish, +0.033 Catalan, +0.018 French, +0.037 Portuguese) at the cost of a small English regression. The trade-off is clinically acceptable: Portuguese reaches R@5 = 0.829 vs. BioBERT-ST's 0.714. Contributions: an open recipe for building domain-specific medical retrievers from LLM-generated data; quantification of the learning gain (MRR 0.755 to 0.876, +15.9% with ~19,500 synthetic pairs); and a characterisation of where gains concentrate by language and rank.
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Machine Learning

Measuring, Localizing, and Reducing the AI-Like Writing Style of Post-Trained LLMs

Post-trained language models often exhibit a recognizable AI-like writing style, yet its connection to post-training and internal representations remains poorly understood. In this work, we study whether post-training introduces or amplifies AI-like stylistic regularities and whether these regularities have a localized internal signature. To this end, we compare human text, base-model generations, and aligned-model generations under matched human-source prefixes. Aligned generations show lower human-corpus affinity and higher AI-detection rates than base generations, suggesting that post-training shifts generated text away from human-corpus style and toward detector-visible AI-like text. We then introduce PASTA (Post-training Alignment Signature Targeted Ablation), a training-free method that estimates a post-training alignment signature from aligned-base residual contrasts and ablates the corresponding direction during decoding. Across 11 aligned models and 6 AI-detectors, PASTA lowers the detection rate for most aligned models; this effect transfers well across detectors and is not reproduced by random directions. Qualitative analysis suggests that PASTA generations remain relevant and coherent while exhibiting greater stylistic variation. Together, these results show that AI-like stylistic effects of post-training can be measured, localized, and causally tested through activation ablation.
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All authors Aniket Anand, Janvijay Singh, Zhewei Sun, Dilek Hakkani-Tür, Nick Feamster

Machine Learning

Representation Collapse in Sequential Post-Training of Large Language Models

Large language models are now adapted through chains of post-training stages rather than through a single instruction-tuning pass. This paper studies whether such sequential post-training gradually compresses internal representations into low-rank, anisotropic, and homogeneous feature spaces. We define a measurement suite for hidden states, logits, token trajectories, and LoRA updates, and we use it to analyze supervised fine-tuning, preference optimization, safety/refusal tuning, math and code specialization, and long chain-of-thought tuning under controlled stage orderings. The central hypothesis is that excessive representation concentration is not merely a geometric curiosity: it predicts reduced plasticity during later adaptation, weaker out-of-domain generalization, and poorer calibration. We further evaluate lightweight interventions, including mixed-domain replay, feature refresh, representation diversity regularization, and LoRA update decorrelation, as ways to preserve future learnability without giving up the behavioral gains of post-training.
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All authors Yichen Liu, Mingyu Chen, Hao Wang, Xiaoran Xu, Chenxi Lin, Rui Zhang, Yutong Zhou, Yuxin Yang, Jiarui Wu, Wei Sun

Machine Learning

Revisiting Padded Transformer Expressivity: Which Architectural Choices Matter and Which Don't

Recent work describes what transformers can and cannot compute through connections to boolean circuits, but existing results lack exact characterizations and are sensitive to modeling choices. Padded transformers – to whose input filler symbols such as “...” are appended – emerge as a useful gadget for establishing equivalences to circuit classes by providing polynomial space for adaptive parallel computation. However, only a limited set of padded transformer idealizations has been studied, leaving open how robustly these equivalences hold under changes to attention type, model width, and uniformity. We find that, under practical assumptions, padded transformers are surprisingly robust to all of these, and identify numeric precision and model depth as the main factors affecting expressivity. Concretely, we prove that polynomially padded $\text{L-uniform}$ constant-precision transformers are equivalent to $\text{L-uniform AC}^0$, while growing-precision ones achieve $\text{L-uniform TC}^0$ regardless of width. Furthermore, looping enables sequential processing analogous to circuits: $\log^d N$-looped constant-precision transformers reach $\text{FO-uniform AC}^d$, and growing-precision ones reach $\text{FO-uniform TC}^d$. Interestingly, growing width or precision beyond logarithmic does not increase expressivity, and all our results hold for both softmax and average hard attention transformers.
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All authors Anej Svete, William Merrill, Ryan Cotterell, Ashish Sabharwal

Machine Learning

MAAT: Multi-phase Adapter-Aware Targeted Unlearning

Machine unlearning evaluation is structurally skewed: Why-type questions, which probe causal and relational knowledge, comprise less than 0.06% of CounterFact, 0.6% of ZSRE, and less than 1.3% of TOFU, MUSE, and WMDP-Cyber. This near-zero representation means that methods that fail on causal knowledge can score highly in aggregate, and this failure is undetectable without balanced evaluation. We present 5WBENCH, a balanced 5,000-sample benchmark with 1,000 examples per 5W category (Who, What, When, Where, Why), making causal unlearning failures quantifiable for the first time. Using 5WBENCH, we show that no existing baseline simultaneously achieves high forgetting and high retention on Why-type questions: aggressive forgetting degrades retained knowledge, while conservative methods fail to forget causal facts. Why-type difficulty stems from multi-hop reasoning chains (44% of Why entries vs. less than or equal to 2% for others) and gradient dilution over 40.1-token answer spans. We present MAAT (Multi-phase Adapter-Aware Targeted Unlearning), a three-phase framework operating on LoRA adapter weights, combining gradient-projected ascent, SVD rank-dimension pruning, task vector negation, and hybrid KL-hidden-state retain repair. MAAT is the first method to simultaneously achieve high forgetting and high retention on Why-type causal knowledge, reaching a new operating point on the forget-retain Pareto frontier. We make our code publicly available.
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All authors Suryash Yagnik, Shubham Gaur, Saksham Thakur, Vinija Jain, Aman Chadha, Amitava Das

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Improved Distribution Estimation in $\ell_\infty$

We present improved bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These include minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds. We resolve some of the open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025) – including a fully empirical version of the tightest risk bound they presented and identifying the form of the worst-case extremal distribution. Encouraging empirical results are reported as well.
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Machine Learning

Graph-Conditioned Mixture of Graph Neural Network Experts for Traffic Forecasting

Spatio-temporal forecasting on sensor graphs is commonly tackled with a single backbone architecture applied uniformly across all nodes, although graph regions can exhibit different dynamics. Road segments differ in functional class, structure, and traffic behavior, suggesting that node-wise expert specialization can be useful. We propose GC-MoE, a graph-conditioned mixture of experts framework that assigns each node a personalized combination of frozen forecasting experts based on graph topology and the recent traffic input window. GC-MoE combines frozen pretrained spatio-temporal GNN experts with an input-aware, spatially contextualized router while training only a lightweight routing module. We also study a bounded graph-conditioned output refinement layer as an optional extension and include node-adaptive ST-LoRA adapters only as an ablation diagnostic. Across four standard benchmarks (PEMS04, PEMS07, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY), GC-MoE improves MAE over a zero-parameter ensemble baseline, with competitive RMSE and MAPE, while training only ~17K parameters on top of 1.5M frozen expert weights. The implementation is available at https://github.com/Ahghaffari/gc_moe.
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Machine Learning

Discovering a Zeta Map Algorithm on Dyck Paths via Mechanistic Interpretability

Machine learning is increasingly used in mathematical discovery, but in mathematics the desired output is often not a prediction itself, but an explicit construction that can be checked independently. We study this setting through the zeta map on Dyck paths, a classical bijection in the combinatorics of the q,t-Catalan numbers. We train a deliberately small one-layer, one-head encoder-decoder transformer on this map and analyze its learned computation using mechanistic interpretability tools, including decoder cross-attention analysis, linear probing, and causal intervention. The analysis reveals a level-based mechanism: encoder representations make path levels linearly accessible, while the decoder selects and traverses input positions in a structured way. Translating these signals into combinatorics leads to the scaffolding map, an explicit peak-centered traversal algorithm for Dyck paths. We prove that this algorithm agrees with the zeta map, modulo a reversal convention in the labeling. This gives a controlled example of AI-assisted mathematical discovery in which mechanistic interpretability turns model behavior into a precise, human-verifiable combinatorial algorithm.
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Machine Learning

Universal Multiclass Transductive Online Learning

We consider the problem of universal transductive online classification with a possibly unbounded label space. This setting considers online learning, with the sequence of instances (without labels) known to the learner in advance. We say a concept class $\mathcal{H}$ is learnable if there is a learning algorithm $\mathcal{A}$, such that for every realizable sequence, the number of mistakes made by $\mathcal{A}$ grows at most sublinearly with the number of predictions. We characterize the learnability of this setting and show that there are only two possible optimal rates for the learnable classes: either bounded or increasing logarithmically. We introduce a new combinatorial structure, called “Level-Constrained-Littlestone-Littlestone (LCLL) tree”, which, along with the indifference property, characterizes the learnability. We also extend the learnability result to the agnostic case and the case where only the stochastic process that generates the instance sequence is known.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Local Differential Privacy with Correlated Noise Achieves Central-DP Optimal Cost

We study privately estimating the sum of $n$ user-held values in the presence of an honest-but-curious server. This motivates requiring privacy not only at data release but also throughout server-side computation. We therefore adopt the local (pure) differential privacy model, in which each user transmits a noise-perturbed value. It is well known that independent local noise typically incurs a substantial utility loss compared to the centralized model, where noise is added only after aggregation. We show that this gap is not fundamental. By carefully designing correlations among the locally added noise variables, we construct $\varepsilon$-DP mechanisms whose estimation cost matches the optimal cost achievable in the centralized setting, up to an arbitrarily small error.
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All authors Madhura Pathegama, Srikanth Avasarala, Viveck R. Cadambe, Juba Ziani

Machine Learning

Can Subgraph Explanations Be Weaponized to Steal Graph Neural Networks?

Graph Machine Learning as a Service (GMLaaS) platforms increasingly implement explainability interfaces to meet regulatory transparency requirements. However, this transparency creates exploitable vulnerabilities for model extraction attacks. We present the first model extraction attack specifically designed for graph classification under strict black-box constraints where the attacker observes only discrete class labels and binary explanation masks (no probability scores, gradients, or confidence values). Our method (1) uses model explanation outputs to guide Monte Carlo edge sensitivity estimation toward decision boundaries, with Hoeffding concentration guarantees on estimation accuracy and (2) exploits explanation subgraphs to efficiently narrow the boundary search space. Extensive experiments on benchmark graph datasets across multiple domains demonstrate our method's superiority over comparable baselines. These findings demonstrate that such explainability interfaces create exploitable attack surfaces, informing both defensive mechanisms and policy frameworks for explainable AI mandates. The implementation code is provided in https://github.com/LabRAI/XSTEAL/.
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All authors Ojas Nimase, Jiate Li, Yue Zhao, Yushun Dong

Machine Learning

idSCD: Identifying Training Datasets through Semantic Correlation Descriptors

Can a dataset be recognized from the spurious correlations it induces during training? We argue that datasets leave dataset-specific traces in a model's learned semantic correlation structure: incidental regularities that are predictive within a dataset, but not causal for the underlying task, can be internalized during training. We use this insight to study dataset-level membership inference, moving beyond existing methods that rely on behavioral or distributional evidence such as confidence scores, losses, margins, generated samples, or query responses. We introduce a white-box semantic fingerprinting approach based on semantic correlation descriptors (SCDs), which capture the semantic correlation structure learned by a model and make it comparable across dataset mixtures. In a controlled leave-one-dataset-out diagnostic, SCDs recover dataset-specific changes and perfectly separate matching from non-matching dataset pairs. We then propose a practical SCD-based membership score that tests whether a target dataset is part of a model's training mixture using only the model's SCD and the target dataset's standalone SCD, without requiring leave-one-dataset-out models. Across three diverse experimental settings, with dataset groups for natural language inference, emotion classification, and medical text classification, we test both the advantages and limitations of SCD-based membership inference with different degrees of semantic separation and keyword support between dataset splits. On average, the classifier based on this score achieves the highest performance and the lowest std, outperforming black-box baselines RMIA, Attack-P, and LiRA, as well as the white-box SIF baseline. These results show that dataset membership can be traced through internal semantic correlations, with the largest relative gain exceeding 60% in ROC-AUC when dataset groups expose distinct semantic particularities.
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All authors Andrada Gobeaja, Ionut Hodoroaga, Marius Leordeanu, Elena Burceanu

Machine Learning

Scalable Constrained Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning via State Augmentation and Consensus for Separable Dynamics

We present a distributed approach for constrained Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) that combines state-augmented policy learning with distributed consensus over dual variables. Our method targets systems where agents have separable dynamics but must coordinate to satisfy global resource constraints, a setting in which, as we demonstrate empirically, independent learning fails to produce feasible solutions because agents cannot determine appropriate individual contributions toward collective constraint satisfaction. The key technical contribution is showing that lightweight neighbor-to-neighbor consensus over Lagrange multipliers suffices for globally coordinated constraint enforcement while preserving the scalability of independent training. Each agent learns a single augmented policy offline, conditioned on both its local state and a dual variable encoding constraint feedback. During execution, agents reach agreement on this dual variable through local communication alone. We prove that under mild connectivity assumptions, the consensus error among agents' multipliers is bounded, and show that this translates to a bounded constraint violation that decreases with graph connectivity and the number of consensus rounds. Unlike centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) approaches, whose complexity grows at least quadratically with agent count, our method scales linearly in both training and execution. Experiments on smart grid demand response demonstrate that consensus coordination is essential for feasibility: without it, agents satisfy grid capacity constraints only by indefinitely postponing demand, a degenerate non-solution. With consensus, agents converge to a shared dual variable and satisfy both grid constraints and demand fulfillment, scaling to thousands of agents while CTDE baselines are limited to dozens.
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Machine Learning

DisjunctiveNet: Neural Symbolic Learning via Differentiable Convexified Optimization Layers

Many learning tasks in science and engineering are characterized by sparse datasets, which limits the effectiveness of purely data-driven approaches. At the same time, these problems are often accompanied by rich domain knowledge derived from physical laws, operational requirements, and expert heuristics. Such knowledge is frequently expressed as rules involving logical propositions and linear inequalities. Existing neuro-symbolic methods typically enforce these rules approximately through soft penalties, assume input-independent rules when designing specialized architectures, or rely on non-differentiable post-processing at inference time to achieve hard constraint satisfaction. While recent advances in differentiable optimization layers enable end-to-end feasibility enforcement within neural networks, extending these approaches to logical or mixed-integer rules remains challenging due to inherent nonconvexity. In this work, we propose a unified end-to-end framework for enforcing hard, input-dependent mixed integer linear constraints within neural networks. Our approach represents rules as disjunctive constraints and applies hierarchical convex relaxations to obtain convex hull formulations. These relaxations yield tractable linear constraints that can be embedded as differentiable optimization layers while enabling exact rule satisfaction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework on real-world datasets, achieving perfect rule satisfaction and strong predictive performance.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from hep-ph

Generative Models and Statistical Validation

Generative machine learning has become an essential tool in theoretical and experimental physics, especially in the context of fast surrogates and density estimators. In this work, we first introduce the underlying framework of modern generative networks and then discuss challenges in quantifying their accuracy, precision, and statistical power.
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Machine Learning

A Unified Framework for Gradient Aggregation in Multi-Objective Optimization

Many machine learning problems involve multiple inherent trade-offs that are best addressed by gradient-based multi-objective optimization (MOO) algorithms. Existing methods are often proposed with various motivations, analyzed case by case, and differ algorithmically in how the component gradients are aggregated at each step. In this work, we develop a unifying framework for gradient aggregation in MOO, establishing (optimal) rates of convergence to Pareto stationarity, the standard measure of performance in MOO. Central to our analysis is a sufficient alignment condition, from which we derive a theorem showing that non-conflicting directions, when chosen within the convex hull of gradients, form a fundamental sufficient condition for convergence. We further show that feasibility can be ensured through projection onto the dual cone, broadening the scope of methods that admit convergence guarantees. In parallel, we present a primal optimization perspective of gradient aggregation that encompasses established algorithms, clarifies their theoretical relationships, and enables the design of new variants. As an illustration, we introduce capped MGDA, derived from a CVaR-based formulation, and demonstrate its robustness in adversarial federated learning. Finally, we validate our theory through experiments on synthetic problems and practical benchmarks.
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Machine Learning

VeriGate: Verifier-Gated Step-Level Supervision for GRPO

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is an effective recipe for training reasoning models with verifier-based outcome rewards, but its supervision is sparse: when all sampled trajectories for a prompt receive the same verifier reward, the group-relative advantage collapses to zero and learning stalls. Outcome-only rewards also provide no step-level credit assignment, limiting exploration and making it harder to learn robust reasoning. We present VeriGate (Verifier-Gated Step-Level GRPO), a verifier-gated extension of GRPO that addresses these limitations with three design choices. First, VeriGate keeps the verifier in charge whenever verifier rewards induce a meaningful preference among sampled trajectories, and uses process supervision only when verifier rewards are degenerate. Second, instead of collapsing Process Reward Model (PRM) step scores into a single trajectory reward, VeriGate converts them into future-cumulated rewards to assign continuation-aware credit. Third, VeriGate transforms these rewards into group-normalized token-level advantages, restoring informative gradients and fine-grained credit assignment while remaining less susceptible to reward hacking than methods that optimize aggregated PRM scores. Empirically, training on MATH with 1.5B and 7B Qwen2.5-Instruct models and evaluating on six reasoning benchmarks, VeriGate improves average accuracy by about 20% and 12% for 1.5B and 7B models respectively, substantially reduces zero-gradient failures, decreases reward-hacking behavior, and improves reasoning quality relative to outcome-only GRPO and PRM-as-outcome baselines.
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Machine Learning

Bounded Behavioral Indistinguishability for Black-Box LLM Distillation

Black-box LLM distillation is usually evaluated as an output-matching problem: a student is considered successful when its responses are semantically similar to, or task-consistent with, those of a teacher. However, output similarity does not imply that the student is behaviorally indistinguishable from the model it imitates. We introduce bounded behavioral indistinguishability, formalized as $(\epsilon,q,t,\mathbb{A})$-behavioral indistinguishability over an explicit prompt distribution, where $\epsilon$ bounds distinguishing advantage, $q$ bounds oracle queries, $t$ bounds computation, and $\mathbb{A}$ denotes the adversary class. We instantiate this notion on Qwen and Llama teacher-student pairs using a controlled $5,000$-prompt behavioral probe suite. For each family, we compare the teacher with both the base student and the LoRA-distilled student, measuring whether distillation reduces distinguishability rather than merely improving similarity. LoRA raises semantic similarity from $0.788$ to $0.862$ for Qwen and from $0.814$ to $0.874$ for Llama. Yet adversarial evaluation reveals remaining behavioral differences: learned discriminators retain nonzero advantage, and pairwise category analysis shows artifacts concentrated in style/format, robustness, and domain-technical prompts. A pairwise teacher-identification adversary confirms this trend. With a different-family Llama judge and A/B-swap consistency filtering, Qwen distinguishing advantage drops from $0.158$ for the base student to $0.081$ after LoRA distillation. Query-budget experiments show that disagreement-guided acquisition does not consistently outperform stratified random sampling, indicating that coverage and diversity remain strong baselines. Our results show that semantic fidelity is useful but insufficient: black-box LLM distillation requires bounded, adversarial, and category-aware evaluation.
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Machine Learning

Calibrated Preference Learning: The Case of Label Ranking

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.
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All authors Santo M. A. R. Thies, Viktor Bengs, Timo Kaufmann, Sebastian J. Vollmer, Eyke Hüllermeier

Machine Learning

LongDS-Bench: On the Failure of Long-Horizon Agentic Data Analysis

Real-world data analysis is inherently iterative, yet existing benchmarks mostly evaluate isolated or short interactive tasks, leaving agents' ability to track evolving analytical context over long horizons untested. We introduce LongDS, a benchmark for long-horizon, multi-turn data analysis where agents must maintain, update, restore, and compose evolving analytical states. LongDS comprises 68 tasks constructed from real-world Kaggle notebooks, spanning 2,225 turns across six domains including Geoscience, Business, and Education. Tasks are designed around state-evolution patterns (e.g., counterfactual perturbation, rollback, multi-state composition), with an average dependency span of 11.3 turns. Evaluating five state-of-the-art models, we find that the best model reaches only 48.45% average accuracy, performance drops nearly 47 points from early to late turns, and long-horizon errors account for 52%–69% of failures. Further analysis shows that additional agent steps do not necessarily improve performance, suggesting that the key bottleneck is maintaining a correct analytical state rather than increasing interaction budget. We release LongDS to support research on reliable long-horizon agentic data analysis. Code and data are released at https://github.com/zjunlp/DataMind.
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All authors Kewei Xu, Xiaoben Lu, Shuofei Qiao, Zihan Ding, Haoming Xu, Lei Liang, Ningyu Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.DS

Learning effective models from network dynamics data with multiple initial conditions using weak form SINDy

Social systems consist of networks of individuals who influence one another through social interactions. Studying how processes evolve on these networks can help us better understand patterns of social behavior. We study a system that couples online and offline social activity and investigate how to learn effective models directly from data using Weak Form Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (WSINDy), a method for discovering governing equations. We assess learning performance using data generated by a mean-field approximation model of a stochastic interaction process on networks and test how accurately the system can be recovered under different noise levels. Our results show that using more trajectories improves accuracy when noise is high, but only a small number of additional trajectories is needed to gain most of the benefit, with little improvement beyond that. We also learn effective ODE models from averaged stochastic data on networks. When traditional mean-field approximations fail, identifying continuum ODEs directly from stochastic processes yields efficient models that better match the data and provide deeper insight into the underlying dynamics.
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All authors Moyi Tian, Daniel A. Messenger, Vanja Dukic, Nancy Rodríguez, David M. Bortz

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Attention-based optimizer for symmetry finding

Finding symmetries is crucial for understanding physical models. In this work, we present an optimization framework that searches Pauli symmetries of Hamiltonians, merging the fields of machine learning with automated symmetry finding. Built on a Set-Transformer architecture, our framework uses self-attention to encode the pairwise and higher-order correlations among the Pauli-Strings. The relations are then decoded as a candidate, which is further optimized with a custom commutation-based objective, and mapped to a symmetry of the input Hamiltonian. We apply our method to random Pauli Hamiltonians, periodic one and two dimensional transverse-field Ising model and the Toric code. We show that for physical Hamiltonians (Ising and Toric), our framework succeeds with near-deterministic probability while providing substantial advantage compared to state-of-the-art strategies. For random Pauli Hamiltonians, we estimate the required computational resources, specifically the number of parallel starts and the number of GPUs, to find a symmetry with high success probability under fixed design specifications.
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All authors Shreya Banerjee, Vinodh Raj Rajagopal Muthu, Charlie Nation, Rick P.A. Simon, Francesco Martini, Alessandro Ricottone, Federico Cerisola, Luca Dellantonio

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Exploring Autonomous Agentic Data Engineering for Model Specialization

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on general tasks, while often struggling to adapt to specialized domains without high-quality domain-specific data. Existing LLM-based data curation methods primarily rely on human-designed workflows, leaving it unexamined whether LLMs can autonomously execute an end-to-end data engineering pipeline for model specialization. We formalize Autonomous Agentic Data Engineering, a novel task designed to evaluate LLMs as autonomous data engineers that drive model specialization through end-to-end data curation. We frame data as an optimizable component and study agents that plan, generate, and iteratively optimize training data across multiple domains, guided by post-training performance improvement. Experiments show that autonomous LLM data engineers yield substantial gains, as GPT-5.2 constructs a training curriculum that improves a student model by 57.29%, entirely through iterative, agent-driven data adaptation. By illuminating both potential and bottlenecks, our study establishes autonomous data engineering as a measurable capability and charts a path toward agent-driven model specialization (Code will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/DataAgent).
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All authors Yujie Luo, Xiangyuan Ru, Jingsheng Zheng, Jingjing Wang, Yuqi Zhu, Jintian Zhang, Runnan Fang, Kewei Xu, Ye Liu, Zheng Wei, Jiang Bian, Zang Li, Shumin Deng

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.QM

A Novel Computer Vision Approach for Assessing Fish Responses to Intrusive Objects in Aquaculture

The aquaculture industry needs to address several challenges to secure sustainable seafood production that can serve an increasing global demand. One major challenge is to ensure good fish health and acceptable welfare during production since the improvement of fish welfare is of vital importance in current and future production systems. In this study, this is addressed by developing and implementing methods to identify fish behaviors in response to intrusive objects both on individual and on a group basis. A novel approach for detecting, tracking, and estimating the 3D position of individual fish has thus been developed, and specifically designed to track the caudal fins of farmed fish in industrial sea cages. The tracking data was subjected to a novel stereo-vision method adapted to estimate fish positions, velocities, accelerations, and turning and pitch angles. Datasets obtained from industrial-scale fish farms were then analyzed to identify the impact of structures of varying shapes, sizes, and colors on fish behavior. The method was trained using manually labeled caudal fins, and used YOLOv8 with ByteTrack as an object detector and tracker, SuperGlue for matching detections in the left and right frames, and triangulation to reconstruct the 3D positions of the fish. Different image pre-processing and augmentation methods for enhancing object detection accuracy were tested and their performance compared, while RAFT-Stereo was tested for depth estimation purposes. The obtained results both validate the method's performance against previous research efforts, and demonstrate the novelty and potential of this method in providing more insight into behavioral dynamics in sea-cages.
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All authors Hanne-Grete Alvheim, Stian Mjelde Jakobsen, Martin Føre, Eleni Kelasidi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GR

Smaller and Faster 3DGS via Post-Training Dictionary Learning

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) is a promising neural scene representation for real-time rendering, but trained models often suffer from large memory footprints, limiting deployment on less powerful devices. Existing compression techniques often lead to architectures with several additional trainable parameters. While achieving outstanding compression ratios, they introduce noticeable drops in image quality. In this work, we introduce the first dictionary-learning-based compression framework for 3DGS. The proposed post-training compression pipeline can be deployed in virtually any 3DGS model without the need for re-training or modifications to existing 3DGS models. Our compression framework is straightforward to implement, yet provides significant compression capabilities, preserves image quality, and improves real-time rendering performance. Across 13 benchmark scenes, our approach achieves an average compression ratio of 3.95x, 3.10x, and 4.55x when applied to 3DGS, 3DGS-MCMC, and PixelGS, respectively. This yields consistent rendering speedups of 23.3%, 24.3%, and 25.3%, while maintaining image quality.
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Machine Learning

NumLeak: Public Numeric Benchmarks as Latent Labels in Foundation Models

Public numeric benchmarks appear in pretraining, so an evaluation that conditions on a date may be measuring memorized recall rather than out-of-sample skill. We introduce NumLeak, a measurement framework that combines API-boundary probes on production models with a white-box controlled validation on an open causal LM. Top-tier frontier LLMs recall the Fama-French market excess return at 3-seed pooled Pearson r=0.97-0.99 while staying within 0.15 within-25bps on the five sibling factors; comparable fidelity appears on U.S. unemployment, CPI inflation, and NOAA temperature. On a recent-release holdout, parse rate collapses to 21-57% but r stays at approximately 0.99 on months answered, the refuse-or-recall asymmetry a memorized channel predicts. The white-box experiment reproduces the dose-response, and logprob ranking detects memorization that open-ended generation misses, implying closed-API black-box probes understate the channel. A Sonnet "date to market-sentiment" regression that correlates with true Mkt-RF at r=0.74 collapses to r=0.02 once the model's own recall is residualized out. A one-line system-prompt defense blocks 99.8% of a non-adaptive single-turn suffix attack set at near-zero utility cost on conceptual and historical-narrative queries
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.FL

The Inclusion Depth of Pattern Languages: An Open Problem in Algorithmic Learning Theory

Pattern languages are a classical model in formal language theory and algorithmic learning theory. This note formulates the problem of computing the inclusion depth of a pattern language: the length of the longest strict inclusion chain from the universal pattern language to the language generated by a given pattern. Inclusion depth captures the mind-change complexity of pattern identification from positive data. The central open question is whether the inclusion depth ID_Sigma(p) is computable for every pattern p over every finite alphabet Sigma with at least two symbols, and whether it is computable in polynomial time. A simple conjectured formula, ID_Sigma(p) = 2|p| - #var(p) - 1, would imply a linear-time algorithm. The problem connects pattern language inclusion, combinatorics on words, language identification in the limit, and mind-change-bounded learning.
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