Papers

This paper introduces a new systematic framework for detecting anomalies in maritime Automatic Identification System (AIS) datasets. These anomalies include abnormal vessel behaviours related to speed, position jumps, time gaps, and turn angles. Although unsupervised learning algorithms such as Isolation Forest are widely used for detecting anomalous vessel movements, they often lack systematic and meaningful evaluation measures. To address this limitation, we propose a novel quality metric called Maritime Anomaly Detection Quality Index (MADQI). The prosed MADQI is a composite index designed to evaluate the anomaly detection performance of machine learning models without requiring labelled data. The proposed framework uses Haversine distance calculations to analyse AIS datasets and identify anomalies based on their spatial and behavioural characteristics. The proposed MADQI evaluation framework integrates four interconnected metrics: Anomaly Rate Consistency (ARC), Physical Plausibility Score (PPS), Score Distribution Separation (SDS), and Extreme Case Evidence (ECE). These metrics are combined through automatic normalisation using multi-chunk evaluation and adaptive scaling techniques. Experimental results on the AIS dataset show that the proposed framework achieved a MADQI score of 80.37%, demonstrating its effectiveness for unsupervised anomaly detection. In particular, the algorithm performed strongly in identifying abnormal vessel behaviour. Among the individual MADQI components, ECE and ARC achieved scores of 0.907 and 1.000, respectively, indicating excellent capability in detecting extreme anomalies and maintaining anomaly rate consistency. Overall, these results are encouraging and demonstrate that the proposed framework provides a reliable and meaningful approach for evaluating unsupervised anomaly detection in maritime AIS data.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides non-invasive access to dynamic brain activity by measuring blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signals over time. However, the resource-intensive nature of fMRI acquisition limits the availability of high-fidelity samples required for data-driven brain analysis models. While modern generative models can synthesize fMRI data, they often remain challenging in replicating their inherent non-stationarity, intricate spatiotemporal dynamics, and physiological variations of raw BOLD signals. To address these challenges, we propose Dual-Spectral Flow Matching (DSFM), a novel fMRI generative framework that cascades dual frequency representation of BOLD signals with spectral flow matching. Specifically, our framework first converts BOLD signals into a wavelet decomposition map via a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to capture globalized transient and multi-scale variations, and projects into the discrete cosine transform (DCT) space across brain regions and time to exploit localized energy compaction of low-frequency dominant BOLD coefficients. Subsequently, a spectral flow matching model is trained to generate class-conditioned cosine-frequency representation. The generated samples are reconstructed through inverse DCT and inverse DWT operations to recover physiologically plausible time-domain BOLD signals. This dual-transform approach imposes structured frequency priors and preserves key physiological brain dynamics. Ultimately, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through improved downstream fMRI-based brain network classification. The code is available at https://github.com/htew0001/DSFM.git .

The purpose of this article is to provide validation to my deep neural network alternative in the context of LLMs. Very recently, there has been a significant interest by Chinese researchers in a model called RBF network, as a substitute to standard DNNs, with increased explainability and higher accuracy. It turns out that my new model, discovered independently, is based on the exact same machinery. But with a major twist: it does not need DNN as it finds the global optimum of the loss function in closed form, in one iteration, thus eliminating the tedious training step. Here I provide a high-level overview of my technology, with case study and comparison to similar methods.

When a language model is fine-tuned to produce systematically incorrect responses, does this training leave a structured, linearly recoverable trace in its internal activations? We study this question in a controlled model-organism setting using five transformer architectures spanning 1.4 to 9 billion parameters. For each model, an "honest" and a "dishonest" LoRA fine-tuned variant are constructed using identical question distributions but correct versus plausible-but-incorrect answers. Linear probes reach near-ceiling separability (AUC >= 0.9997) within the first few layers in four of five architectures. This separability transfers from TruthfulQA to held-out MMLU subjects for four models, but substantially less so for Pythia-1.4B. Six geometric analyses reveal an architectural dichotomy in representation structure. A control experiment further shows that LoRA fine-tuning itself leaves a strong activation fingerprint that is largely dissociable from the honesty-related signal, independent of fine-tuning data content. Two supplementary experiments qualify these findings: the identified direction transfers poorly to paraphrased questions, with AUC approaching chance, and norm-calibrated activation steering provides no reliable evidence of a causal role in generation, partly because stronger interventions disrupt output fluency. These results characterize what supervised fine-tuning on incorrect responses induces in activation space while clarifying important limitations on interpretation and causal significance.

Robot manipulation critically depends on perception that preserves the action-relevant aspects of a scene. Yet most robot learning pipelines are built upon visual encoders pre-trained for static recognition or vision-language alignment, leaving motion understanding to downstream policies. We introduce DynaFLIP, a dynamics-aware multimodal pre-training framework that pushes motion understanding upstream into perception. We construct image-language-3D flow triplets from heterogeneous human and robot videos, and use these triplets as training-time supervision to shape an image-only encoder. Our key idea is to encourage the three modalities to span a small simplex volume in the shared hyperspherical space – a smaller simplex volume indicating stronger alignment. To avoid the geometric ambiguity and trivial collapse of naive volume minimization, we combine simplex-volume minimization with a cosine regularizer and a contrastive objective. Our analyses show that DynaFLIP focuses on control-relevant regions critical for manipulation. The resulting dynamics-aware representations serve as reusable visual backbones and consistently outperform baselines across diverse downstream policies, including VLAs. We validate this across diverse simulation and real-world setups, with gains reaching +22.5% under out-of-distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that robot generalization improves when visual representations are trained to encode not just what is present, but how the world changes under action.

The pretraining data mixture of Large Language Models (LLMs) constitutes their "digital DNA", shaping model behaviors, capabilities, and failure modes. Yet this composition is rarely disclosed, making post-hoc auditing of data combination or provenance difficult. In this work, we formalize Data Mixture Surgery (DMS): given only generated text from a target LLM, estimate the domain-level distribution of its pretraining corpus under a predefined taxonomy. We propose $\textbf{{LLMSurgeon}}$, a strong framework that casts DMS as an inverse problem under the label-shift assumption. Rather than directly aggregating classifier outputs, LLMSurgeon estimates a calibrated $\textit{soft}$ confusion matrix and solves a constrained inverse problem to correct systematic domain confusion and recover the latent mixture prior. To evaluate, we introduce $\textbf{{LLMScan}}$, a recipe-verifiable evaluation suite built from open-source LLMs with transparent pretraining mixtures. Across LLMScan, LLMSurgeon recovers domain mixtures with high fidelity under fixed protocols. Our work presents a practical, post-hoc approach for auditing the digital DNA of foundation models without access to their training data.

Printed circuit board (PCB) schematic design defines nearly all electronic hardware, but it remains manual and expertise-intensive. While generative AI has advanced digital and analog IC design, PCB schematic generation from natural-language intent is largely unexplored. This paper presents SchGen, the first large language model that generates editable PCB schematics from natural-language requests. The key challenge lies in the lack of an LLM-suited representation and a large-scale dataset. Current schematic formats are dominated by verbose, tool-specific syntax and geometry-heavy descriptions, making them difficult to generate reliably. We introduce a semantically grounded code representation that encodes schematic editing primitives with relative placement and pin-name-based wiring, transforming a geometry-driven generation problem into a semantics-driven matching task amenable to LLMs. We further construct a large-scale dataset of PCB schematics paired with user prompts via a human-agent collaborative pipeline that converts open-source hardware designs into our representation. Experiments show that SchGen significantly outperforms alternative representations and even larger general-purpose LLMs on wire connectivity accuracy and functional correctness. Our results highlight the critical role of representation design in enabling generative models for complex hardware design tasks.

Test-time finetuning (TTFT) is a rapidly evolving paradigm that adapts a language model to each prompt by retrieving related sequences, updating the model on them, and then evaluating the prompt. However, TTFT is only practical if it is fast: selection and finetuning both happen per query, making each a direct bottleneck. Existing methods trade speed for quality: fast retrieval is often redundant, while stronger diversity-aware selection adds prohibitive per-query cost. We introduce HullFT, a geometric approach to TTFT that addresses both bottlenecks. Given a query, HullFT first represents the query embedding as a sparse convex combination of few training sequences, using efficient projection-free Frank-Wolfe optimization. This yields a support set that is inherently relevant and diverse. We then convert the fractional convex weights into an exact integer multiset for finetuning through a geometric integerization procedure. The resulting multiplicities naturally create repeated examples, which we exploit with Gradient Reuse to amortize forward-backward computation across repeated finetuning steps. Our experiments show that HullFT improves the quality-efficiency tradeoff over current state-of-the-art TTFT methods, achieving lower bits-per-byte at substantially lower total runtime.

Federated learning is an emerging distributed paradigm that addresses the challenges posed by heterogeneous, privacy-sensitive data. It enables multiple clients to train a model collaboratively by aggregating their local updates at a server. However, conventional aggregation schemes typically use fixed weights that fail to reflect unequal and time-varying client contributions, leading to biased and unstable learning. To improve fairness and stability, we propose the Trajectory Shapley Value (TSV), a contribution metric that evaluates how each client influences the optimization trajectory of the global model using a validation-based, temporally consistent utility. Building on TSV, we design FedTSV, an adaptive aggregation method that converts per-round evaluations into dynamic client weights, allowing the server to respond to heterogeneous and adversarial participation in real time. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that FedTSV accelerates convergence, improves robustness, and yields more equitable contribution assessments, thereby providing a principled foundation for fairness-aware federated optimization.

Diffusion models have excellent capacity to model complex distributions of natural data, which has made them a popular and effective choice for posterior sampling in imaging inverse problems. Existing methods can incorporate any measurement model at inference time but must use an inexact approximation for the likelihood at intermediate timesteps for computational tractability. Although these approximations can often work well empirically, their downstream effect on the sampled posterior is poorly understood and can result in unexplained failures. To understand when, why, and how these likelihood approximations propagate to erroneous posterior distributions, we introduce a finite-sample perspective on posterior sampling that approximates the posterior to arbitrary precision as training set size tends towards infinity, for any forward model and prior distribution. Using this finite-sample lens, we observe that popular posterior sampling approximations tend to under- or over-estimate the spread of the posterior at intermediate timesteps, causing downstream consequences including sensitivity to early stopping time, inaccurate relative weighting of posterior modes, and hallucination, both of prior modes that are not in the posterior and likelihood modes that are not supported by the prior. Moreover, we find that the cause of these posterior errors requires neither a nonlinear measurement model nor a multimodal posterior, but can arise solely due to a multimodal prior and inaccurate posterior spread at intermediate sampling times. Our finite-sample posterior sampling approach is agnostic to the type of likelihood approximation and the type of (linear or nonlinear) forward model, and can thus serve as a drop-in diagnostic to evaluate the accuracy and failure modes of existing and future posterior samplers.

Autonomous AI research agents aim to speed up scientific discovery by automating the research pipeline from hypothesis generation to peer review. However, existing benchmarks rarely test a fundamental bottleneck whether LLMs can judge the methodological viability of a research idea $\textbf{before}$ investing time and computational resources. Without a reliable “first-gate” filter, autonomous agents risk scaling flawed methodology rather than accelerating meaningful science. We introduce $\textbf{SoundnessBench}$, a curated benchmark of 1,099 real research proposals, with source verified extraction, reviewer-derived proxy labels, and proposal-only expert judgments on a subset of 327 proposals. Across 12 frontier LLMs, our evaluation reveals a pervasive $\textbf{optimism bias}$: standard prompting yields a $74.0\%$ mean false-positive rate. Aggressive prompting reduces false approvals but substantially increases false rejections. Additional analyses show that optimism persists under controls for public corpus contamination, and surface features, as well as in literature-grounded agent evaluation. These results suggest a limitation in judging scientific soundness, indicating that current LLMs are not yet reliable as standalone gatekeepers for scientific rigor.

Frontier reasoning models are produced by post-training base language models with reinforcement learning. Recent work has challenged this by showing that sampling from a sharpened version of the base model's distribution, a so-called power distribution, elicits comparable reasoning without additional training, curated datasets, or verifiers. However, making this method practical requires efficiently sampling from the power distribution. A sampler needs to "mix" to the power distribution, which necessitates moving between modes of the target distribution; intuitively, e.g., trying different reasoning strategies. The samplers proposed in prior works repeatedly select a "cut" position in the current reasoning trace uniformly at random and resample the suffix from that position onward. However, reasoning traces typically contain a few consequential decisions (e.g., the choice of proof strategy or algorithm), and we observe that a uniformly chosen cut tends to rewrite local details rather than revisit decision points. We introduce an algorithm (Entropy-Cut Metropolis-Hastings) that uses the base model's next-token entropy as a proxy to identify key decision points and resample from those positions. We empirically verify that entropy jumps are a useful proxy for decision points and, in a stylized model of reasoning, prove that our method's mixing time scales with the number of decisions in a trace rather than with the number of tokens, which can be much larger. Across MATH500, HumanEval, GPQA Diamond, and AIME26, our method consistently improves over baselines and RL-trained models, including best-of-N at the same token budget.

We study language generation in the limit under bounded memory. In this task, a learner observes examples from an unknown target language one at a time and must eventually output only new valid examples. Prior work assumes access to the entire history, a strong assumption since realistic algorithms retain limited past information. Classical work in learning theory shows memory constraints dramatically alter learnability; we extend this to language generation. First, we study memoryless generators. Under a mild enumeration restriction, every countable collection of infinite languages remains generable without memory. Without this restriction, we exactly characterize when memoryless generation is possible. For finite collections, we characterize the optimal minimax density achievable by memoryless generators – the best density guaranteed against any collection of a given size. This combinatorial bound relies on Sperner's theorem and symmetric chain decompositions. We further show that a sliding window of the last $W$ examples does not improve this worst-case density, whereas allowing it to store $b$ adaptively chosen past examples improves the achievable density for every $b \geq 1$. Finally, we revisit identification in the limit, where the learner must converge to a single correct hypothesis for the target language. We focus on its incremental variant, where the learner remembers only its previous guess. Here, although exact identification fails on a collection of just three languages, a mild relaxation requiring convergence to an “approximate” version of the target is achievable for every finite collection. These results show bounded memory affects these tasks differently: generation remains achievable for every countable collection, while density and identification are confined to finite collections, with guarantees weakening as the collection grows.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) typically relies on static reward models to align Large Language Models with human preferences. However, human values are inherently diverse and heterogeneous, and a single reward model often lacks the robustness required to generalize to unseen preference domains. While existing multi-reward frameworks attempt to address this, they are often restricted to a fixed set of known domains and fail to adapt to unseen human distributions without costly retraining. In this work, we propose In-Context Reward Adaptation, a transformer-based framework designed to model diverse and unseen human preferences on the fly. By leveraging the in-context learning capabilities of transformers, our approach adaptively infers the underlying reward structure from a small set of preference demonstrations. We demonstrate that while a standard transformer architecture is insufficient for this task by characterizing an asymptotic bias to the ground-truth, incorporating human response time as an auxiliary input signal enables the model to successfully adapt to preferences from previously unseen domains. Our findings show that this approach provides a more robust foundation for preference modeling, allowing for the representation of heterogeneous rewards and preference distribution shift, and offering a scalable path toward more flexible human-AI alignment.

We introduce Gram, an automated alignment auditing framework to assess the propensity of AI agents to engage in sabotage. We evaluate Gemini models across 17 simulated agentic deployment scenarios that incentivize sabotage. We find Gemini models misbehave in about 2-3% of our simulated trajectories. Many of these cases are explained by "overeagerness" in Gemini models resulting in both excessive role-playing and goal-seeking behavior. In contrast to other alignment auditing approaches, Gram is designed to specifically evaluate misalignment and intentional sabotage in agentic coding and research agents. We additionally introduce an experimental investigator agent pipeline which enables fine-grained targeted experiments to identify the drivers of misbehavior. We find that increasing realism of environments and removing nudges to misbehave tends to reduce sabotage rates close to zero.

A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we observe $n$ units across $m$ times under unknown, non-uniform treatment assignments. The data in this setting is naturally represented as a matrix of all unit–time treatment effects. Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects can then be expressed as obtaining a good estimation of each row's average in this matrix. This allows us to formulate the problem as matrix completion, which can be solved under natural low-rankness assumptions. However, existing matrix-completion guarantees are not powerful enough to get meaningful bounds for the per-row guarantee required for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effect; roughly speaking, they are only useful for estimating average treatment effect bounds, as also illustrated in a recent line of work. We give a simple, computationally efficient estimator that, without knowledge of the propensities and under standard low-rankness and regularity assumptions, achieves a row-wise $\ell_2$ error of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{\frac{1}{n} + \frac{n}{m^2}})$. Technically, our analysis establishes the first sharp row-wise $\ell_2$-perturbation bound for low-rank approximation, complementing existing spectral-, Frobenius-, and entrywise perturbation theory.

Across two public LLM leaderboards, many displayed pairwise rankings do not meet a conventional paired-test resolution target under the actual paired evaluation design: 11 of 40 Open LLM Leaderboard v1 pairwise comparisons and 4 of 9 MMLU-Pro top-10 adjacent-rank pairs are unresolved at (alpha, 1-beta) = (0.05, 0.8). The MMLU-Pro count rises to 6/9 under real subject-level clustering and stays at 5-6 out of 9 in 99.9% of category-bootstrap resamples. We frame paired LLM evaluation as a hypothesis-testing problem, invert level-alpha, power-(1-beta) tests, and report a per-pair resolution ratio q = N/N* as the primary diagnostic. A sharp small-effect expansion with an explicit second-order constant shows that the widely-used unpaired Cohen-h-plus-(1-rho) shortcut deviates from the correct N* by approximately a factor of two in the close-comparison regime, a deficit that three of five off-the-shelf calculators(Cohen 1988, G*Power, R pwr) silently inherit when the user post-multiplies their per-arm output by (1-rho). The unresolved-pair pattern remains under multiplicity correction and anytime-valid sequential testing.

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable and is treated symmetrically during training. However, these assumptions are impractical in many settings, such as time series, where temporal dependence violates exchangeability and it is preferable to use predictors that leverage dependence by treating data asymmetrically. Recent work shows that split conformal prediction is robust to these issues, but sample splitting can reduce accuracy, motivating the study of methods that do not rely on data splitting in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a modification tailored to such settings, which we term the leave-a-window-out (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from cyclic exchangeability, which we introduce new coefficients to measure. Experiments on time series demonstrate that our method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

Self-improvement at scale has been a longstanding goal for reasoning models, and there are two natural places to do it: at test time, through verification-refinement (V-R) loops; and at training time, through self-training methods. Both are gated by the same bottleneck: the verifier. V-R loops stall when verifier scores inflate while accuracy stagnates, and when feedback is too generic to act on; self-training fails similarly when bad self-generated data are added to training. Better verification would unlock both, but the capability we want to train, i.e., catching self-generated errors, lacks training signal. To address this challenge, we propose self-trained verification (STV). Our key observation is that, while a model cannot catch these errors alone, it can when shown the reference solution. We turn this asymmetry into a supervision target and train the verifier to imitate a more informed version of itself. At test time, STV substantially improves V-R loops on hard problems, while alternatives (e.g., SFT, RL on verifier scores, and even meta-verifiers) do not. STV roughly doubles accuracy on hard math and lifts it 14x on scientific reasoning tasks (1.5% to 21%). At training time, we additionally train the generator using RL with STV verifier's feedback inside the V-R loop - a procedure we call verifier-in-the-loop training (ViL). Starting from an RL-converged generator, ViL yields a further 33% gain in pass@1. More notably, the generator's standalone pass@1, with no verifier at test time, climbs 30% relative past where standard RL had converged. Hence, the next frontier in reasoning on hard problems may lie in how we train for and with verification. Website: https://ar-forum.github.io/stv-webpage

Numeric tabular datasets are the dominant data format in scientific practice, yet large language models lack native mechanisms for representing numeric datasets in a meaningful way across heterogeneous feature spaces. Existing approaches either target predictive modeling over individual datasets, which requires a shared set of variable definitions, or lack mechanisms for interpretable cross-dataset alignment. The proposed methodology characterizes numeric tabular datasets through structured exploratory data analysis descriptors, embeds those descriptors into a shared vector space using a pretrained sentence transformer, and quantifies cross-dataset similarity via Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Furthermore, a penalized formulation of CCA is applied to recover sparse, interpretable variable-level correspondences between datasets, identifying which statistical descriptors or variable-level quantities drive cross-dataset alignment without requiring shared variable names or feature conventions. Differential privacy is optionally applied to the descriptor set prior to embedding, supporting deployment in sensitive data contexts without requiring access to raw observations at time of comparison. The methodology is evaluated across 15 datasets spanning general-purpose benchmarks, materials informatics, and nuclear-grade graphite characterization. Results demonstrate a total P@1 score of 0.9, with known nearest-neighbor retrieval and cluster structure remaining robust across embedding ablations and differential privacy budgets. The proposed framework provides a principled pathway for integrating heterogeneous numeric data into retrieval-augmented generation pipelines while preserving statistical context, with direct applications to data-driven algorithm selection and simulation model initialization for unknown datasets.

Real-time thermal-hydraulic simulation is essential for digital twin (DT) technology that supports the safe and efficient operation of small modular reactors (SMRs). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides high-fidelity flow analysis, but its computational cost prevents direct use in DT applications. AI-based surrogate modeling has been actively investigated to address this limitation, yet neural operator–based surrogates for CFD-level transient analysis of SMR-specific geometries have not been reported. This study presents an integrated framework that combines a reduced-order model (ROM) with neural operators, applied to the helical coil steam generator (HCSG) of the System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor (SMART). Two ROM strategies tailored to each CFD data type were compared, an MLP-based autoencoder (AE) for unstructured mesh data and a convolutional autoencoder (CAE) for structured mesh data, and each was coupled with the deep operator network (DeepONet) to construct the latent DeepONet (L-DeepONet). The Fourier neural operator (FNO) was additionally adopted for comparison. A multi-scale technique was incorporated into both frameworks to mitigate spectral bias and improve the prediction of Kármán vortex streets developing inside the HCSG. The multi-scale L-DeepONet captured the instantaneous periodic vortex dynamics in both velocity and pressure fields, while the FNO and its multi-scale variant predicted the time-averaged mean flow and provided reliable pressure drop estimates. These complementary characteristics provide a practical model-selection guideline that links each architecture to specific DT objectives based on CFD data type and the required level of flow resolution.

Earlier detection of pancreatic cancer is key to enabling wider access to curative treatment and reducing cancer deaths; however, screening is presently not viable. Latent digital indicators of pathology are evident in an individual's disease and blood test trajectories and may predict the development of pancreatic cancer. Longitudinal sequences of coded diagnoses and blood test values accrued by patients throughout their clinical interactions were used to train a custom Transformer-based neural network with a multi-head attention mechanism to predict risk of pancreatic cancer with a multi-year lead time and risk-stratify populations for targeted screening. Mayo Clinic Platform with trained model from Mayo Clinic Rochester validated at Mayo Clinic Arizona, Mayo Clinic Florida, and Mayo Clinic Health Systems. The cohort comprised 6,017 adults with pancreatic cancer and 177,081 controls (median age 75, 45% female) with median 12 years (interquartile range 6.9-16.2) of medical history prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis. External validation via leave-one-site-out, out-of-sample testing predicting pancreatic cancer 1-, 2-, and 3-years prior to diagnosis demonstrated mean area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.837 (95% confidence interval 0.827-0.848), 0.797 (95% confidence interval 0.782-0.813), and 0.760 (95% confidence interval 0.745-0.776), respectively. Estimated pancreatic cancer risks were well-calibrated (calibration plot slope 1.08, intercept of -0.077; Brier score 0.025), and a Bayesian population pancreatic cancer prevalence update allows estimated cancer risk outputs to be transportable across settings. At testing, a screening threshold of >3.3% risk of pancreatic cancer in 1-year offered a diagnostic odds ratio of 18.2. Our work therefore lays the foundation for a digital population-level risk enrichment tool that could widen access to curative-intent management.

Large Language Models (LLMs) must continuously learn and update knowledge to remain effective in dynamic real-world environments. While Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is widely used for such memory updates, existing studies mainly rely on qualitative downstream evaluations, leaving the quantitative capacity limits and underlying dynamics of exact parametric memory largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we employ LoRA as a controlled memory capacity probe within the latent space to systematically quantify exact parametric memory. We introduce the Parametric Memory Law, a robust power law linking loss reduction Delta L to effective parameters and sequence length. At the token level, fine-grained analysis reveals a deterministic phase transition, demonstrating that a prediction probability of p > 0.5 constitutes a sufficient condition for verbatim recall under greedy decoding. Driven by these insights, we introduce MemFT, a threshold-guided optimization strategy that dynamically redistributes the training budget toward sub-threshold tokens. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that MemFT can enhance memory fidelity and efficiency. Code will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/ParametricMemoryLaw.

We study the non-asymptotic contraction in Wasserstein distance of the sequential, parallel, and random-scan coordinate ascent variational inference algorithms. This is shown to hold under a functional smoothness condition of the optimality maps and a transportation-information inequality at their fixed points. Our results are sharp and general, and as opposed to those based on global strong log-concavity assumptions, they allow for local convergence on smooth, non-smooth, and discrete manifolds, including within the context of data augmentation. We consider many applications in statistical physics and Bayesian statistics. These include pairwise Markov Random field models such as Ising and Curie-Weiss, unbalanced Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Models, high-dimensional Bayesian Probit Regression, and high-dimensional Logistic Regression with Pólya–Gamma random variables (i.e. Jaakkola-Jordan's algorithm). In many of these models, these represent the first available convergence results of their kind.

Drug synergy prediction (DSP) aims to identify efficacious drug combinations under various cellular contexts with different targets. However, the continual emergence of novel compounds results in variations in molecular scaffolds and sizes, causing drug synergy data to exhibit out-of-distribution (O.O.D.) shifts with respect to topological structure. Existing works rely on in-distribution (I.D.) assumption, failing to handle the O.O.D. shifts. To solve this problem, we study out-of-distribution generalized drug synergy prediction through a graph large language model for the first time. Nevertheless, O.O.D. generalized DSP is highly non-trivial, posing several challenges: i) how to discover structurally relevant and irrelevant molecular representations with respect to cell targets; ii) how to find the optimal graph neural architectures that accurately calculate molecular representations; and iii) how to jointly leverage molecular structural and semantic information in LLMs. To address these challenges, we propose OOD-GraphLLM, a novel graphLLM framework which is able to accurately predict drug synergy under O.O.D. settings via jointly optimizing molecular graph representation and biomedical semantic language representations in a unified manner. Furthermore, we finetune DrugSyn-LLM, a biomedical LLM, and employ a retrieval-augmented biomedical instruction tuning strategy to align molecular topological information and molecular semantic information with language-based reasoning for O.O.D. generalized DSP. Both the source code (https://github.com/EkkoXiao/Bio-GraphLLM) and released model (https://mn.cs.tsinghua.edu.cn/bio-graphllm/) are publicly available, where users are allowed to download model resources and interactively use the system through a web interface.

Retrieval over semi-structured knowledge bases (SKBs) must handle both textual descriptions and relational constraints. Text-based retrievers capture the overall semantics of a query but struggle with multi-hop relations, whereas graph-based retrievers follow relational paths precisely but miss the broader meaning. We propose GRASP, a hybrid retriever that learns to fuse the two. A small LLM planner translates the query into an executable graph plan in a single call, its graph ranking is fused with a text ranking, and a fine-tuned reranker reorders the fused candidates. Instead of training the planner to be accurate on its own, we optimize it with reinforcement learning to maximize the gain its graph ranking brings to the fused ranking. On three STaRK benchmarks, GRASP achieves the best results on all metrics, improving the average Hit@1 by 18.6 points over the strongest baseline, while taking only 2.47 seconds per query.

How does reinforcement learning shape a language model's internal representations? We present evidence that RL recruits a pre-existing representation of functional welfare: an estimate of how well or badly the system is doing, relative to its goals. We train several language models in a novel, semantically neutral maze environment. We then extract concept vectors for rewarded and punished trajectories, and evaluate those vectors in settings unrelated to the maze environment. The punishment vector behaves like a representation of negative welfare: it promotes failure and impossibility tokens, it aligns with negative emotion concepts, it negatively tracks goal-achievement, and steering with it induces negative self-reports, pathological backtracking, refusal, and uncertainty. The positive reward vector behaves as the mirror image, and the two are nearly antiparallel. These effects are robust when controlling for tile-to-reward mapping, scale, instruct tuning, RL training algorithm, model family, and LoRA versus full-finetuning, and largely persist when we replace RL with supervised fine-tuning. Importantly, the vectors are effective in models before they have undergone maze training. Combined with observations that the effects also appear in pretrain-only models, we therefore argue that this functional welfare axis pre-exists post-training: it is recruited, rather than created, by post-training. While we make no claims about any experience of welfare, the axis offers a demonstration that minimal reward signals can broadly affect model behavior by recruiting pre-existing welfare-like representations, with implications for interpretability, post-training dynamics, and alignment.

We use a mean-field-based transformer model to theoretically investigate how auxiliary variables, such as positional encoding, prevent mode collapse of self-attention mechanisms. The use of mean-field transformers to analyze the properties of self-attention mechanisms has garnered significant attention in recent years due to their ability to comprehensively analyze token interactions. However, analysis of this simple model suggests that mode collapse, where token distributions degenerate to a single point, occurs during long inferences (i.e., many layers), indicating a discrepancy with reality. This study investigates this mean-field transformer model and demonstrates that the introduction of auxiliary variables, such as positional encoding, acts as a counterforce against theoretical mode collapse. Specifically, we show that in the theoretical scheme, the energy-maximizing distribution does not degenerate to a single point; instead, it is characterized by a pushforward of the auxiliary variable distribution, thereby avoiding concentration in the Dirac measure. Our main examples are the positional encoding and the fixed prompt insertion treated as a parallel auxiliary-variable mechanism. Furthermore, we demonstrate that positional encoding and prompt insertion possess universality of representation in the limit, meaning that the limit distribution of inference can exactly represent a wide class of distributions. We also analyze several key properties of positional encoding and metastability, and validate our theoretical results through mathematical experiments.

Clustering is an unsupervised technique for grouping data points by similarity. While explainability methods exist for supervised machine learning, they are not directly applicable to clustering, making it challenging to understand cluster assignments. This interpretability gap is particularly evident in the popular density-based method DBSCAN, which assigns points as inliers (cluster members in dense regions) or outliers (noise points in sparse regions). DBSCAN does not provide insight into why a particular point receives its assignment or whether its assignment is robust to small changes in the data. To address the lack of explainability, we introduce ExDBSCAN, a density-aware, post-hoc explanation method. ExDBSCAN offers actionable counterfactual explanations, with theoretical guarantees for validity. It generates multiple counterfactuals using a density connected weighted graph, adopting a physics-inspired model that repels counterfactual candidates from one another (diversity), while pulling them toward the instance to explain (proximity). Empirical evaluation on 30 tabular datasets comparing against four baselines shows that ExDBSCAN outperforms all baselines while attaining perfect validity and retrieving diverse, proximal counterfactuals.

We introduce TriSearch, a reinforcement learning framework for optimizing objectives over triangulations of a polytope via bistellar flips. The key idea is a circuit-supported subtriangulation action representation: feasible flips are encoded by their supporting circuit and realized local subtriangulation, enabling a learned policy to rank them using local geometric and combinatorial features. This yields a dimension-agnostic interface and enables efficient traversal of the flip graph without explicit enumeration of the full triangulation space. Instantiated in 3D and 4D, TriSearch generalizes zero-shot from small training instances to larger polytopes with exponentially larger search spaces. It achieves top performance on metric objectives in 3D and, in 4D, discovers more distinct Fine, Regular, Star triangulations of reflexive polytopes, corresponding to Calabi-Yau threefolds, than existing samplers under a fixed budget.