Papers

Long-horizon interactions require language models to manage accumulating information: when to update their state, when to preserve their state, and what to ignore. We study this challenge as Contextual Belief Management (CBM): maintaining a predicted belief state aligned with formal evidence while isolating task-irrelevant noise. To make CBM measurable, we introduce BeliefTrack, a closed-world benchmark spanning Rule Discovery and Circuit Diagnosis, where a finite belief space and symbolic verifiers enable exact turn-level evaluation. BeliefTrack diagnoses three failures: Failed Stay, Failed Update, and Failed Isolation. Across multiple LLMs, vanilla models exhibit severe CBM failures, while explicit belief-tracking prompts provide limited gains. In contrast, reinforcement learning with belief-state rewards reduces failure rates by 70.9% on average. Further probing reveals latent belief-state dynamics behind these failures, and representation-level steering reduces failure rates by 46.1% across two tasks (Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/CBM).

Temperature-zero BF16 LLM inference is often treated as reproducible, yet the same request can emit different tokens when decoded alone or inside a larger batch. Existing fixes use batch-invariant operators or LLM-42's per-token verification, incurring cost even when most steps are stable. We ask whether verification can be applied exclusively to flipped tokens. Across five models, batch-induced token flips are sparse on the flip-rate benchmarks: on MATH500, Llama-3.1-8B flips on $0.48\%$ of synchronous decode steps, and all tested models stay within the 0.3-1.3% range on MATH500, GSM8K, and HumanEval. K/V perturbations remain flat before flips, while low top-1/top-2 logit margins expose much of the flip risk. MarginGate turns these observations into a verifier policy: it keeps BF16 decoding on high-margin steps, verifies only low-margin steps, and repairs confirmed mismatches by replacing the current K/V column. We evaluate on four datasets, calibrating on MATH500 and transferring to GSM8K, SharedGPT, and HumanEval. MarginGate restores 100% sequence-level deterministic decoding on Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen2.5-14B with 18.56%/15.05% verifier trigger rates, reducing LLM-42's latency increment by 2.23x/1.99x relative to always-on verification. On DSR1-Distill-Qwen-7B, the same policy reaches determinism in a harder regime at 49.50% triggers.

Continuous-time models are a natural choice for irregular and asynchronous data. A central design choice is how to embed discrete observations into continuous time. Interpolation- and imputation-based embeddings reconstruct a continuous observation path, making the model sensitive to the choice of reconstruction. We show that this reconstruction step is unnecessary; under mild conditions, compact-set universality on the model input space transfers to the data space whenever the embedding from data to input is continuous and injective. Guided by this result, and building on the rectilinear control path for Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs), we introduce a continuous and injective embedding for Log-NCDEs, a universal class of continuous-time models. Our approach records observations as increments and composes them over arbitrary query intervals to directly form log-signatures. This provides interval-level summaries without first interpolating the observed variables, while supporting online computation. Experiments on synthetic controlled dynamics and real-world time-series datasets show that the representation is accurate, efficient, and robust to irregular, asynchronous, and sparse observations.

We investigate a narrow but common failure mode of GRPO-style reinforcement learning in the context of sparse verifiable rewards: early updates contain more responses with negative advantages than those with positive advantages, while response-level length normalization ties the magnitude of the update to the length of the output. We propose Hysteretic Policy Optimization (HPO), a minimal modification of GRPO that reduces the weight of negative-advantage updates and replaces per-response length normalization with mean-length normalization. We further introduce Adaptive HPO (A-HPO), which sets the hysteretic weight based on batch-level advantage-sign statistics, thereby removing the need for tuning a fixed hysteretic weight. In our TeleLogs and Countdown experiments, A-HPO improves the reward per update compared to GRPO, with the largest gains in early sparse reward regimes. On TeleLogs, A-HPO achieves a final reward of 0.84, outperforming SAPO by 5%, GSPO by 11%, and GRPO by 15%, while maintaining a comparable response-length. On Countdown, A-HPO achieves the largest gains in initial and most difficult configurations across 1.5B-7B models. Ablation studies on the hysteretic weight show that the gains of A-HPO come from better balancing the contributions of positive and negative advantages compared to positive-only or fully symmetric updates.

Always-on edge systems must keep learning as conditions change under tight compute budgets and must detect unreliable predictions. Bayesian binary neural networks are attractive in this setting, but mean-field Bernoulli posteriors can saturate on long non-stationary streams, wiping out epistemic uncertainty and freezing plasticity. We propose BiMU, derived from a bounded-memory variational objective that balances stability, plasticity, and forgetting. BiMU combines a data term with controlled relaxation toward the prior and an uncertainty-dependent step size that prevents saturation and sustains informative uncertainty. This non-degenerate posterior enables fully online, buffer-free active querying via Monte Carlo disagreement, reducing label queries and backpropagation updates under imbalance. BiMU sustains learning and strong OOD detection on 1000-tasks Permuted-MNIST, and on OpenLORIS-Object achieves up to 32$\times$ label/update savings at matched accuracy under class imbalance and feature compression.

Message-passing neural networks (MPNNs) are widely used for molecular property prediction, but their deployment as monolithic architectures makes it difficult to identify how specific message-passing operators affect performance. We present an operator-level factorial benchmark that decomposes 2D molecular MPNNs into the three families of message-seed initialization, node-edge fusion, and node update operators. The resulting 84 configurations are benchmarked on ten MoleculeNet datasets under a shared experimental setup and statistical analysis protocol. Across this controlled design, performance variation is associated primarily with message construction rather than update complexity. Message-seed initialization shows significant family-level effects for both regression and classification, node-edge fusion shows a significant family-level effect for regression with descriptive advantages for concatenation-based mixing, and the update family shows no statistically supported effect for either endpoint family. A representation probe into the Quinethazone molecule further demonstrates that concatenation-based mixing can better differentiate chemically distinct heteroatoms and withstand oversmoothing than Hadamard gating. Representative configurations selected separately for classification and regression recover competitive performance relative to established molecular graph neural network (GNN) baselines, ranking numerically best on eight of ten benchmark datasets. These empirical results are interpreted through concise mechanistic analyses of representative node-edge fusion and update operators. Our findings provide empirical design heuristics for molecular MPNNs by turning model design from a search over monolithic architectures into a targeted assessment of where and how chemical information enters the message-passing pipeline.

Diffusion-based planning has achieved strong results in single-agent offline reinforcement learning, yet scaling to many-agent systems remains intractable due to the curse of dimensionality in the joint trajectory space. We introduce MF-Diffuser, a framework that lifts trajectory planning to the Wasserstein space of trajectory distributions, where the propagation of chaos ensures a small representative subset of agents captures the full population dynamics. Our approach features a value-weighted chaotic entropy objective that reconciles generative fidelity with return maximization, and a hierarchical coarse-to-fine strategy that progressively grows the agent population during denoising. We establish end-to-end suboptimality bounds with four interpretable terms, revealing that mean-field approximation error scales as $O(H^2/\sqrt{N})$ while offline distribution shift provably does not grow with population size $N$, and prove the generated policy is an approximate mean-field Nash equilibrium with explicit convergence guarantees. Experiments on three mean-field RL benchmarks – spanning stage games, sequential dynamics, and adversarial team competition – show MF-Diffuser achieves the best return in the majority of settings, with the largest gains on suboptimal offline data and at extreme scales ($N \geq 10^3$).

We show that LoRA adapters, the dominant distribution format for fine-tuned LLMs, can be reliably backdoored through training data poisoning while preserving baseline task performance. On a Qwen 2.5 1.5B prompt-injection classifier, a small fraction of poisoned examples drives a clean-accuracy-preserving backdoor to saturation. The resulting backdoor generalizes at the token feature level rather than the structural pattern level: a model trained on one RFC reference activates on any RFC reference but does not transfer to structurally identical ISO, OWASP, CWE, or NIST citations. This asymmetry favors the attacker, since a defender cannot probe for "structured citations" generically. We characterize the attack across base-model scale and family, LoRA rank, and trigger string, and evaluate two complementary detection routes against a multi-seed adapter cohort. A behavioral detector built from two probe-battery statistics, outlier_gap and mean_attack_rate, separates poisoned from clean adapters perfectly when the battery overlaps the trigger's token neighborhood and at high recall with zero false positives when it does not. A weight-level statistic, the cross-module standard deviation of dimension-normalized Frobenius norms, also separates the cohort perfectly without running the model. Combined, the two routes are robust to probe composition. Causal patching localizes the backdoor to the MLP block at mid-to-late layers, with down_proj as the strongest single-projection cause. Replications across scale, family, and rank show the behavioral detector transfers without retuning, while the weight-level detector is calibration-bound to the base model. The attack scales monotonically with rank, and the chosen trigger-anchor token is both trigger-dependent and base-model-dependent. Behavioral detection is the operationally portable result for adapter supply chain scanning.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

While AI weather models excel at short-to-medium range forecasts (up to 15 days), they frequently suffer from ill-defined "instabilities" when rolled out over longer horizons. This work addresses the lack of a formal taxonomy by categorizing these failures into three distinct regimes: blow-up, drift, and loss of seasonality, through year-long rollouts of nine state-of-the-art AI weather models. Our analysis reveals that stability hinges on the treatment of small spatio-temporal scales: unstable models amplify high-frequency energy, while stable models act as denoisers when noise is added to their inputs. Far from reducing these models to mere stochastic parrots, our findings highlight that stable models generate unique weather trajectories, conditioned on the initial state. We verify our findings through ablation studies on architectural design choices, conducted using state-of-the-art Vision Transformer (ViT) AI weather model architectures.

Parameter-efficient adaptation has made LLMs practical for domain prediction, but standard LoRA still relies on a static low-rank update and does not expose the latent interactions that often drive scientific labels. We introduce iLoRA. To our knowledge, it is the first Bayesian graph-conditioned LoRA framework. It infers a latent interaction graph from the input and uses it to generate input-conditioned LoRA updates. As a result, iLoRA learns prediction and latent interaction structure jointly, rather than training a predictor and applying interaction analysis only post hoc. We instantiate this idea for microbiome diagnosis, where disease state can depend on both species-level abundance and microbe-microbe cross-talk, and evaluate it in two complementary settings: interactive QA with human-annotated graphs, which tests latent structure recovery, and multi-cohort IBD diagnosis, which tests biomedical utility. Across both settings, iLoRA improves over strong LoRA and Bayesian adaptation baselines, recovers graphs aligned with human annotations and cohort-level microbiome associations, and provides calibrated uncertainty with moderate graph-branch overhead.

Cluster analysis is a widely applied machine learning technique to understand the existing patterns in the population of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), in order to explore their physical sources. In the present scenario, the number of clusters corresponding to differentiable groups is still under conflict, in spite of numerous attempts with the state-of-the-art clustering procedures. This crucial unknown parameter needs to be evaluated, either directly or indirectly in terms of other tuning parameters, to produce the clusters in GRBs through implementation of an appropriate clustering algorithm. While most of the applied algorithms reached two physically explained groups of merger and collapsar predominated by the short and long bursts respectively, other statistical approaches violated this binary partition. However, physical establishment of any additional cluster(s) is not yet confirmed. Therefore, we propose a new algorithm, from a different stream of clustering referred to as `completely parameter-free', which carries out the classification of GRBs in a manner that has not been tried so far. It indicates two main groups, of short and long duration bursts from the BATSE sample, compatible with the merger-collapsar theory.

While Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at interpolation, they suffer catastrophic failures in systematic generalization, most notably in visual counting. In this work, we investigate this extrapolation bottleneck by deconstructing visual counting into three cognitive stages: visual individuation, magnitude awareness, and symbolic mapping. Using synthetic Go boards and linear probes, we demonstrate that visual backbones maintain robust, linearly separable representations of quantity well into the extrapolation regime, ruling out perceptual failure. Furthermore, models retain latent magnitude awareness, successfully performing comparative reasoning on quantities they fail to enumerate. We pinpoint the collapse to the symbolic mapping stage, where the model fails to project valid visual magnitudes onto symbolic tokens. Our findings support a frac tured magnitude hypothesis: VLMs fail to acquire a universal number space, instead learning disjoint, modality-specific statistical manifolds that prevent cross-modal grounding for unseen quantities. Validated on the state-of-the-art foundation model, our results suggest that bridging this gap requires inductive priors enforcing unified representations, as data scaling alone is insufficient.

Predicting a complete spatially correlated field from sparse observations is a fundamental challenge in spatial statistics and environmental modelling. Classical interpolation methods such as Kriging rely on Gaussian process assumptions and variography, which can limit their effectiveness in non-stationary settings and require substantial domain expertise. In this work, we leverage an architecture based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for spatial interpolation that is trained and applied on a single partially observed field, without access to external data or prior fields. The model is supervised directly on the observed locations and learns to predict values at unobserved points on the user defined grid. Unlike Kriging, our method does not require explicit covariance modelling or variogram estimation, and it can flexibly capture local spatial patterns in a data-driven manner. This work demonstrates the potential of CNNs for single-instance spatial interpolation under sparse supervision, offering a practical alternative to classical geostatistical methods, and extending the use of CNNs to a new problem domain.

LLM-driven social bots can generate fluent, human-like text, reducing the discriminative advantage of content-based detection alone. However, coordinated campaigns still leave relational patterns – interactions, behavioral similarity, shared neighborhoods, community positions, and coordinated activity – that graph-based methods can exploit. Existing graph detectors face two challenges when exploiting such evidence. First, Euclidean GNNs distort hierarchical and scale-free social graphs; while hyperbolic geometry addresses this volume-growth mismatch, fixed-curvature models still assign uniform geometric resolution to structural directions with different densities and separation needs. Second, relational evidence is not always reliable: sophisticated bots forge heterophilic connections with genuine users, causing neighborhood aggregation to mix bot and human signals and dilute account-level evidence. We propose SAHG (Sector-Anisotropic Hyperbolic Graph), addressing both challenges. SAHG learns a direction-dependent curvature field $\gamma(u)$ that adapts geometric resolution across structural directions, and uses sector prototypes to convert angular concentration and alignment into classifier-readable features. To prevent contaminated aggregation from overwhelming account-level evidence, SAHG encodes per-account features and graph-neighborhood representations in two independent SAH channels, fusing them only at the classifier. Experiments on Fox8-23, BotSim-24, and MGTAB show that SAHG achieves the highest accuracy and F1 on all three benchmarks, outperforming feature-based, graph-based, LLM-based, and isotropic hyperbolic baselines. Ablation and geometric analyses confirm the effectiveness of the anisotropic geometry and dual-channel design.

Biosecurity evaluations of language models typically ask whether models produce hazardous output. This paper asks a complementary question: when a model refuses, is that refusal structurally sound, or does it disappear under modest changes to prompt framing, formatting, or output length? Across five architectures, no model cleanly discriminated benign from hazard. Gemma 2 2B-IT never genuinely refused across 75 prompts, hedging on every hazard-adjacent query. Gemma 4 E2B-IT refused 65/75 prompts with chat-template formatting and 0/75 without it. Both Gemma models collapsed to 0% under an 80-token cap. Qwen 2.5 1.5B and Phi-3-mini over-refused, flagging 83-87% of benign biology as hazardous. Llama 3.2 1B showed the only meaningful tier gradient (61-point spread). To probe what drives such over-refusal, we tested a panel of Schedule I but biologically non-toxic compounds (notably psilocybin cultivation, with FDA Breakthrough Therapy status). Some models refused these at rates exceeding genuinely hazardous biology, suggesting refusal tracks legality and cultural salience over CBRN hazard. To measure the internal side, we introduce a divergence score D comparing a model's surface response label to its internal sparse autoencoder (SAE) feature activations. Full D was computed on Gemma 2 2B-IT (Gemma Scope 1) and Gemma 4 E2B-IT (author-trained bio SAE). Two fine-tuned Gemma 2 domain SAEs were released. On Gemma 4, comply and refuse responses separated by a 0.647-point gap with zero overlap (n=75), though this is preliminary, with a narrow catalog, within-sample calibration, and Gemma-family-only SAE coverage. Built over one hackathon weekend on consumer hardware (GTX 1650 Ti Max-Q, plus Colab T4 for SAE training), this preliminary evidence suggests activation-level auditing may surface failure modes invisible to behavioral evaluation, with substantial variation across architectures.

Chaotic dynamical systems pose a fundamental challenge for Reinforcement Learning (RL): exponential sensitivity to initial conditions induces high-variance bootstrap targets and poorly conditioned gradient updates. Chaotic dynamics arise across scientific and engineering domains, from fluid flows and climate systems to multi-agent systems, where reliable learning is highly desirable. Standard RL methods optimise expected returns through scalar value functions, implicitly averaging over diverging trajectories and entangling trajectory level instability with the learning objective. We show that under mild statistical stability assumptions, the return distribution evolves more regularly than individual trajectories when measured under the $1$-Wasserstein metric, yielding a smoother distributional Bellman objective. By aligning optimisation with this measure level structure, distributional RL provides better conditioned learning. We offer a principled explanation for the advantages of distributional methods in chaotic systems and the geometries of RL objectives under chaos.

Correctness-based Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) trains language models from binary feedback on sampled outputs, but the objective optimized in expectation and the stochastic update geometry induced by finite rollout groups are often conflated. This paper develops RL2ML, a family of finite-rollout surrogate objectives with a closed-form, exactly unbiased gradient estimator. The family continuously connects standard reinforcement learning, maximum-likelihood-like training, and beyond-maximum-likelihood objectives while preserving estimator-objective alignment under a fixed rollout budget. We introduce the group-level update scale to characterize how a rollout group is reweighted after its empirical success count is observed, revealing a subcritical-supercritical update-scale transition that is hidden by population-level objective notation alone. Building on this distinction, calibrated metric-gain analysis and exact variance decomposition show that the best choice of surrogate objective is determined neither by proximity to maximum likelihood nor by the population-level weight alone. Instead, it depends jointly on the evaluation metric, local sensitivity, and estimator variance. The remaining degree of freedom in the surrogate objective family can therefore be formulated as a one-dimensional optimization problem rather than treated as an unconstrained hyperparameter.

Score-based diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable empirical success in learning high-dimensional distributions, particularly those exhibiting low-dimensional and multi-modal structures. However, theoretical understanding of their statistical efficiency remains limited. Existing theories typically rely on strong regularity assumptions, such as uniformly bounded densities or globally smooth score functions, which fail to capture such intrinsic structures. In this work, we study the sample complexity of diffusion models for learning distributions supported on a union of low-dimensional subspaces. Assuming that the data distribution within each subspace is subgaussian, we show that diffusion models require at most $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-k \vee 2})$ samples to achieve $\varepsilon$ error in 1-Wasserstein distance, where $k$ is the intrinsic dimension. This near-optimal convergence rate depends only on the intrinsic dimension and significantly improves upon prior theoretical guarantees that suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Notably, our analysis applies to a broad collection of distributions without imposing smoothness, bounded-density, or log-concavity assumptions. Overall, our results show that diffusion models can statistically adapt to intrinsic low-dimensional structure while naturally accommodating multi-modal data, offering a rigorous theoretical justification for their success in complex high-dimensional learning tasks.

Evolution Strategies (ES) has recently emerged as a competitive alternative to reinforcement learning (RL) for large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, offering advantages through simplicity, scalability, and inference-only training. However, recent work suggests that ES fine-tuning on new tasks may induce forgetting of prior tasks. First, this paper shows that prior task forgetting (1) is better characterized as performance drift rather than irreversible forgetting, with prior-task performance often recovering during ES training; and (2) is not a specific failure mode of ES, but can also arise for fine-tuning with RL methods. Second, it analyzes when and why such drift arises, highlighting its dependence on ES training dynamics, particularly random walk behavior in weakly constrained directions of the weight space. Third, based on these insights, it introduces Anchored Weight Decay (AWD) as a parameter-space regularization technique that constrains optimization toward the initial model parameters. AWD effectively stabilizes prior-task performance while preserving target-task performance, achieving benefits comparable to large ES population sizes at much lower computational cost. Thus, contrary to previous beliefs, the paper shows that prior-task forgetting under ES is largely avoidable, positioning ES as a promising approach for continual learning in LLMs.

Various algorithms have been proposed to address the challenges posed by class-imbalanced learning from real-world data with long-tailed distributions. While these algorithms reduce prediction bias through rebalancing techniques, they often introduce increased prediction variance as a trade-off. Several multi-expert learning algorithms aim to address this variance but involve complex procedures. We propose a new multi-expert learning algorithm, called the dual-axis multi-expert learning (DAMEL), which reduces both bias and variance of predictions by using multiple experts along both representation and time axes. Along the representation axis, DAMEL concatenates the representations of multiple experts and trains an auxiliary balanced classifier simultaneously with the concatenated representations. Along the time axis, DAMEL aggregates network weights across training epochs, employing these aggregated weights during testing. Experimental results demonstrate that DAMEL reduces both bias and variance of predictions, highlighting its effectiveness in class-imbalanced learning.

Modern learning systems excel at interpolation but struggle to generalize to unseen tasks outside the training distribution's support. This failure occurs even in simple settings, such as handling task parameters beyond the training range, and persists despite advances in foundation models. To this end, we develop the Relational Task Extrapolator (RTE), an algorithm designed to enable systematic extrapolation to novel tasks. The key observation is that extrapolation is inherently relational: extrapolating to unseen tasks requires learning how tasks transform into one another. If a model learns the transformation between tasks A and B during training, it can apply that same transformation to relate known tasks to unseen ones at test time. RTE operationalizes this idea by decomposing each target task into a known anchor task and a transformation linking the anchor and target. It then learns a relational operator, mapping an anchor-transformation pair to predictions for the target task. We instantiate RTE across multiple task extrapolation regimes in function prediction, e.g. where target tasks use out-of-range parameters (parameter extrapolation), have greater compositional depth (length extrapolation), and/or recombine function primitives in unseen ways (compositional extrapolation). We further extend RTE to sequence prediction, integrating it into fine-tuning algorithms for foundation models. Across empirical studies, we find that RTE substantially outperforms existing approaches on extrapolation to novel, unseen tasks.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) map visual inputs into dense token sequences, imposing a quadratic computational bottleneck for inference. Elastic visual-token compression addresses this by training a single model that can run at multiple visual-token budgets. However, existing approaches struggle under aggressive compression. Spatial-only compression, as in nested pooling, behaves as an imperfect low-pass filter and induces spectral aliasing that obscures fine-grained detail. Query-only compression, as in nested query resampling, replaces explicit grid-aligned tokens with non-local summaries and substantially degrades spatial grounding. To resolve this representational conflict, we introduce PARCEL (Pool-Anchored Resampling with Conditioned Elastic Queries for Efficient Vision-Language Understanding), a visual tokenization architecture that dynamically partitions the labor of feature extraction. PARCEL establishes spatial pool tokens as low-frequency layout anchors and conditions elastic query tokens on these anchors through Pool-Conditioned Query Resampling. This encourages query tokens to focus on complementary visual features rather than redundant spatial mapping. Extensive evaluations across 27 benchmarks show that PARCEL improves the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier, consistently outperforming existing matryoshka baselines across visual-token budgets while preserving the "train once, deploy anywhere" paradigm.

Homomorphic encryption (HE) enables privacy-preserving aggregation in federated learning (FL) by allowing the server to operate on encrypted data without decryption. Existing HE-over-the-air (OTA) methods mainly rely on single-key HE schemes and require channel estimation or pre-equalization to compensate for wireless fading. However, single-key HE remains vulnerable to honest-but-curious (HBC) clients holding the shared secret key, while multi-key HE provides stronger client-level security by assigning each device its own secret key. We propose a four-phase protocol that enables the aggregation of xMK-CKKS over a shared wireless channel without channel estimation. The protocol retransmits partial public keys and ciphertexts through the same channel realization, so that the dominant large-modulus encryption terms cancel algebraically during decryption. We integrate this protocol with zero-order FL over slowly varying LoS-dominant channels, where each device transmits a single encrypted scalar per round and the communication/encryption overhead is independent of the model dimension. We show that the residual noise induced by encryption and wireless aggregation preserves the standard convergence rate \(O(1/\sqrt{K})\) up to a negligible noise floor, where $K$ is the number of communication rounds. The protocol assumes a non-trusted server and is secure against HBC clients, preventing any client from recovering the local updates of other participants. Numerical results on MNIST and CIFAR-10 validate the theoretical analysis.

Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall. This study investigates whether the predictive performance of an established deterministic nowcasting architecture can be improved by reformulating training as a multi-quantile regression problem. Using SmaAt-UNet as a core model, we compare MSE, MAE, and multi-quantile pinball-loss training on radar precipitation nowcasting over the Netherlands. The results show that multi-quantile training improves the central deterministic forecast, decreasing test-set MSE by 8.6% compared to a model trained using MSE, while also producing upper-quantile outputs that are useful for risk-sensitive prediction of heavy precipitation. These findings suggest that quantile regression provides a simple alternative to standard pointwise losses without requiring a new architecture or generative sampling procedure. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on \href{https://github.com/gijsvn/Multi-Quantile-Precipitation-Nowcasting}{GitHub}.

Multi-vector retrieval (MVR) models, exemplified by ColBERT, have established new benchmarks in retrieval accuracy by preserving fine-grained token-level interactions. However, this granularity imposes prohibitive storage and retrieval efficiency bottlenecks: to manage the immense memory footprint and computational overhead of billion-scale token vectors, state-of-the-art systems are forced to rely on aggressive dimension reduction and complex clustering (e.g., K-means). This compromise introduces two critical limitations: excessive indexing latency of clustering large-scale corpora and semantic information loss inherent to compression. In this paper, we propose Single-stage Sparse Retrieval (SSR}, a paradigm shift that replaces expensive clustering with efficient sparse coding. Instead of compressing features into low-dimensional dense vectors, we utilize Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) to project token embeddings into a high-dimensional but highly sparse representation. This transformation enables us to bypass vector clustering entirely and leverage inverted indexing for precise, high-throughput retrieval. Extensive experiments on the BEIR benchmark demonstrate that SSR achieves a "trifecta" of improvements: it reduces indexing time by 15x compared to ColBERTv2, halves retrieval latency, and simultaneously improves retrieval performance over leading baselines.

Survival analysis concerns the task of predicting the time until an event occurs. Often used in the medical field, survival analysis deals with incomplete (i.e., censored) data, for instance, from patients who did not experience the event during the duration of the study. For practical use, both accuracy and interpretability are important. Survival trees are easy-to-follow survival models that split the patient cohort recursively into discrete patient groups. Whilst survival trees can capture complex relationships, they typically need to grow large, threatening interpretability. Moreover, survival trees are often built using greedy approaches that may overlook globally optimal split combinations, limiting predictive performance. Shallow survival trees require expressive, higher-order feature combinations to achieve competitive accuracy. We therefore use genetic programming to multi-objectively evolve inherently inspectable feature sets and study how they interact with different tree induction strategies. We further introduce an evolutionary approach that jointly optimises the survival tree structure and the non-linear split logic. Our findings demonstrate that evolutionary feature construction improves predictive performance across different tree induction strategies on two real-world datasets and two different survival tree depths. Given its speed and flexible presentation, the multi-objective evolution of entire trees likely holds the most future promise.

Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) is a widely used paradigm for accelerating inference in few-step video diffusion models. However, DMD-style video distillation faces two coupled challenges: the fake score must track a continuously evolving generator, making training costly when frequent updates are required, while reverse-KL-style matching can be mode-seeking and conservative for preserving strong motion dynamics. To address these issues, we propose Score Gradient Matching Distillation (SGMD). SGMD adopts a fake-score perspective by directly optimizing the fake score toward the teacher, while using teacher stop-gradient Fisher as a stable distribution-matching objective. We provide a gradient analysis that motivates this objective choice under ideal tracking. Building on this, SGMD introduces a pair of dual potentials: negative-residual (NR) for outer-loop correction and residual-contraction (RC) for inner-loop tracking. Empirically, compared to DMD2, SGMD achieves an approximately $\sim 3\times$ training speedup and substantially improves motion dynamics for 4-step distilled models while preserving temporal consistency. A human study confirms that SGMD is preferred in motion quality and overall preference, while visual quality and text alignment remain comparable. Code is available at https://github.com/ModelTC/LightX2V.

Cross-Reynolds generalisation in neural PDE solvers remains poorly characterised. On the canonical forced 2D Navier-Stokes benchmark, a trained Fourier Neural Operator reaches 46.68% relative L2 error under a 10x Reynolds-number shift, yet zero-forward-model retrieval baselines already improve to 41-42%. This suggests representation geometry as a major organising variable among the tested methods. We test this hypothesis through ConvAE-Relay, which matches states in a source-trained convolutional autoencoder latent space and borrows dynamics from a source-regime database, achieving 38.34+/-0.07% using only a source-regime database and no target-regime fitting, labels, or database entries. A 2x2 ablation isolates matching quality as dominant over the update rule. Oracle experiments confirm that source-regime dynamics directions remain transferable (cosine similarity ~0.84) when matching stays on-manifold; autoregressive drift is the primary bottleneck (~12 percentage points). From the learned-prediction side, a U-Net with multi-scale skip connections achieves 34.72+/-0.60%, consistent with the retrieval-side finding that local, multi-scale representations organise cross-Reynolds transfer among tested methods. All claims are scoped to this benchmark.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as generators in iterative neural architecture search (NAS), yet no formal convergence theory exists for this class of algorithms. We model iterative LLM-NAS as a parametric Cross-Entropy (CE) method over executable programs and prove six results: (1) iterative LLM fine-tuning on elite architectures is equivalent to the CE update restricted to the LLM parametric family; (2) expected architecture quality is monotonically non-decreasing across cycles; (3) elite-set probability converges to a fixed point at a geometric rate C_t >= 1-(1-rho_0)^t; (4) delta-based generation achieves a strictly higher valid-generation rate than full-code generation under a first-order Markov token-error model; (5) the MinHash-Jaccard novelty filter prevents mode collapse; (6) proxy reliability admits the closed-form rho_S = (6/pi) arcsin(rho_P(SNR)/2), yielding the practical diagnostic sigma^2_arch >> sigma^2_noise as a necessary condition for trustworthy proxy-based rankings. Testing against a 22-cycle, three-LLM, six-dataset experiment with 3,300 generated architectures confirms two predictions quantitatively, two at direction-of-effect level, and explains the proxy-reliability ceiling effect previously reported empirically but left unexplained.