Papers

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated notable success in general-purpose forecasting tasks; however, their adaptation to specialized classification problems remains constrained by the computational bottleneck of standard attention and the systematic omission of classical statistical knowledge. This technical report introduces KairosHope, a next-generation TSFM designed to reconcile massive generalization with analytical precision in classification tasks. The core of the proposal is the HOPE block, an architecture that replaces quadratic attention with a dual-memory system: Titans modules for dynamic short-term retention and a Continuum Memory System (CMS) for the abstraction of long-term historical context. To enrich the inductive bias, a Hybrid Decision Head is introduced, which fuses deep latent representations with deterministic statistical features extracted via tsfeatures package. KairosHope undergoes self-supervised pre-training on the massive Monash archive, combining Masked Time Series Modeling (MTSM) and contrastive learning (InfoNCE). Its subsequent adaptation to the UCR benchmark datasets is conducted through a rigorous Linear Probing and Full Fine-Tuning (LP-FT) protocol to prevent catastrophic forgetting. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in domains characterized by strict temporal causality such as HAR or Sensor data. Consequently, KairosHope establishes a robust and efficient framework for the adaptation of foundation models to time series analysis.

Federated Learning is a leading framework for training ML and AI models collaboratively across numerous user devices or databases. We study the trade-offs among estimation accuracy, privacy constraints, and communication cost for differentially private (DP) federated M estimation. The two standard methods in the literature are FedAvg, which may suffer from high federation bias, and FedSGD, which can incur high communication cost. Aimed at improving accuracy at a reduced communication cost, we propose FedHybrid, which uses FedSGD starting with an improved initialization by the FedAvg estimator. We propose FedNewton, which averages local Newton iterations to reduce bias in FedAvg, achieving an estimation accuracy comparable to FedSGD with much fewer communication rounds when the number of clients grows sufficiently slowly. We establish finite sample upper bounds on the mean-squared error rates of the DP versions of these estimators as functions of the number of clients, local sample sizes, privacy budget, and number of iterations. We further derive a minimax lower bound on the MSE of any iterative private federated procedure that provides a benchmark to assess the optimality gap of these methods. We numerically evaluate our methods for training a logistic regression and a neural network on the computer vision datasets MNIST and CIFAR-10.

A fraud scorer needs to answer in under 2 ms. The best tabular foundation models (TFMs) take 151-1,275 ms on GPU. We close this gap by distilling the TFM offline into an XGBoost or CatBoost student that runs natively on CPU. The central obstacle is specific to in-context learning (ICL) teachers: they leak labels when scoring their own training set, so the soft targets collapse to near-one-hot vectors with no inter-class structure left to distill. Stratified out-of-fold (OOF) teacher labeling prevents this. Across 153 classification datasets drawn from TALENT, OpenML-CC18, TabZilla, and TabArena, distilling TabICLv2 into XGBoost gives 0.882 macro-mean AUC (96.5% of teacher AUC) at 1.9 ms on CPU, a 38x to 860x speedup across teacher-student pairs with a statistically significant edge over a tuned CatBoost baseline (Wilcoxon p = 0.0008; 51% win rate). Four further findings: teacher rank transfers exactly to student rank; gains concentrate on low-dimensional data (< 21 features: +0.011 over CatBoost vs. >21 features: +0.001); multi-teacher averaging helps MLP students (+0.006, p = 0.003) but adds less than 0.001 for tree students; and on high-dimensional tasks where the teacher itself trails CatBoost, distillation makes things worse rather than better. The full pipeline is open-sourced as part of the TabTune library.

Central to human-aligned AI is understanding the benefits of human-elicited labels over synthetic alternatives. While human soft-labels improve calibration by capturing uncertainty, prior studies conflate these benefits with the implicit correction of mislabeled data (mode shifts), obscuring true effects of soft-labels. We present a controlled audit of soft-label learning across MNIST and a synthetic variant, re-annotating subsets to extract human uncertainty. By decoupling soft-label supervision from underlying label mode shifts, we show that while human soft-labels do provide accuracy gains, their larger value lies in acting as a regularizer that improves model calibration on difficult samples and promotes stable convergence across training runs. Dataset cartography reveals models trained on human soft-labels mirror human uncertainty, whereas those trained on synthetic labels fail to align with humans. Broadly, this work provides a diagnostic testbed for human-AI uncertainty alignment.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) scales language models efficiently through sparse expert activation, and its dynamic variant further reduces computation by adjusting the activated experts in an input-dependent manner. Existing dynamic MoE methods usually rely on pre-training from scratch or task-specific adaptation, leaving the practical conversion of fully trained MoE underexplored. Enabling such adaptation would directly alleviate the inference costs by allowing easy tokens to bypass unnecessary expert during serving. This paper introduces Zero-Expert Self-Distillation Adaptation (ZEDA), a low-cost framework that transforms post-trained static MoE models into efficient dynamic ones. To stabilize this architectural conversion, ZEDA injects parameter-free zero-output experts into each MoE layer and adapts the augmented model through two-stage self-distillation, utilizing the original MoE as a frozen teacher and applying a group-level balancing loss. On Qwen3-30B-A3B and GLM-4.7-Flash across 11 benchmarks spanning math, code, and instruction following, ZEDA eliminates over 50% of expert FLOPs at marginal accuracy loss. It outperforms the strongest dynamic MoE baseline by 6.1 and 4.0 points on the two models, and delivers ~1.20$\times$ end-to-end inference speedup.

Credit default prediction is a tabular learning problem with severe class imbalance, heterogeneous features, and tight latency budgets. Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) approach this problem through in-context learning, which makes their predictions sensitive to how the context window is built. We benchmark four classical models and five TFMs on the Home Credit and Lending Club datasets, varying the context-construction strategy (seven options) and the context size (1K to 50K). On both datasets, the choice of context strategy explains more variance in AUC-ROC than the choice of TFM family: balanced and hybrid sampling add 3 to 4 AUC points over uniform sampling, and the gap exceeds the spread between TFMs. With a balanced context of 5K to 10K examples, the strongest TFMs reach the AUC of classical baselines trained on the full data, while also recovering meaningful default-class recall that default-threshold GBDTs do not. We frame this as evidence that context construction, rather than architecture choice, is the primary deployment lever for TFMs in imbalanced credit-risk settings.

Neural network checkpoints have quietly become a large-scale data resource: millions of trained weight vectors now exist, each encoding task-, domain-, and architecture-specific knowledge. This position paper argues that model checkpoints should be treated as a first-class data modality, and that generative modeling in weight space should be standardized as a core machine learning primitive. Recent advances demonstrate that neural weights can be synthesized on demand, often matching fine-tuning performance while reducing adaptation cost by orders of magnitude. We contend that these results reflect an underlying structural fact: high-performing models occupy low-dimensional, highly structured regions of weight space shaped by symmetry, flatness, modularity, and shared subspaces. Building on this view, we organize existing methods into a five-stage pipeline, survey applications where the approach is already practical, and clarify current limits: adapter-scale and conditional generation are advancing rapidly, while unrestricted frontier-scale checkpoint synthesis remains open. Our goal is to shift the community's default mindset from optimizing models per task to sampling models from learned weight distributions, accelerating toward an era in which AI systems routinely improve or create other AI systems.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are one of the main methods to interpret the inner workings of deep neural networks (DNNs), decomposing activations into higher-dimensional features. However, they exhibit critical shortcomings where a large fraction of features are never activated and are unstable. Despite variants of SAEs that attempt to mitigate these issues, they require additional data, resampling, or training. We propose the aligned training, a parameter-free reparameterization of SAEs that simultaneously improves reconstruction quality, eliminates dead features, and significantly enhances stability across training seeds. Our approach is motivated by an overlooked observation that SAE feature quality, measured by the inner product between encoder and decoder directions (which we call the alignment score), follows a bimodal distribution across all modern architectures. The proposed aligned training enforces a geometric constraint between the encoder and decoder such that their inner product equals one for every feature, which removes a source of degeneracy in the SAE training without adding any hyperparameters. Across multiple models, dictionary sizes, and sparsity levels, the aligned training shows Pareto improvements on the SAEBench benchmarks. Beyond improving dead features, stability and reconstruction, our method readily integrates with techniques in mechanical interpretability such as Top/BatchTop-K architectures and p-Annealing. Overall, the aligned training substantially improves feature quality and stability of SAE without computational complexity or cost.

Machine learning-based malware detectors are widely deployed in antivirus and endpoint detection systems, yet their reliance on static features makes them vulnerable to adversarial manipulation. This paper investigates whether a malware sample can be intentionally misclassified as a specific benign software category, not merely as "not malware", by adding a small number of Win32 API imports characteristic of that selected category, without removing any existing imports or retraining the detector. We propose a framework centered on a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) whose decoder is strictly additive. It can introduce new API calls but never remove existing ones, preserving malware functionality by design. For each malware sample, the framework automatically identifies which benign category it most closely resembles and uses that as the evasion target. A knowledge-distilled differentiable proxy enables gradient-based training against the non-differentiable ensemble detector. Experiments on a six-class dataset of binary Win32 API import vectors extracted from 3,799 Windows executables (five benign categories, one malware class) show that, against a detector achieving 87.5% malware recall, adding just 20 API imports reduces recall to 30%. At k=20, among samples that evaded detection, 99% are classified as the intended target category. The CVAE outperforms both a frequency-based baseline and random selection at every tested injection size (k = 5 to 50). Validation on real PE files submitted to VirusTotal confirms that the attack transfers to commercial static detection engines, with an average 54.5% reduction in flagging engines. These findings expose a concrete vulnerability in API-based malware classifiers and demonstrate that targeted evasion into a chosen benign category is achievable with minimal, functionality-preserving modifications.

In the graph label selection problem, one is given an $n$-vertex graph and a budget $k$, and seeks to select $k$ vertices whose labels enable accurate prediction of the labels on the remaining vertices. This problem formalizes distilling a small representative set from the whole graph. We present the first $\tilde{O}(\log^{1.5} n)$-approximation algorithm for graph label selection under the standard budget constraint. Prior work either relies on resource augmentation, allowing substantially more than $k$ labeled vertices, or consists primarily of heuristics without provable guarantees. Finally, we demonstrate that practical heuristic variants of our algorithm scale to significantly larger graphs than previous methods, while essentially retaining their quality.

Constrained Machine Learning (CML) enables fairness-aware training, physics-informed neural networks, and integration of symbolic domain knowledge into statistical models. In this work, we introduce the Stochastic Penalty-Barrier Method (SPBM) for CML problems. SPBM extends classical penalty and barrier methods by incorporating an exponential averaging of the dual variables, a stabilized penalty schedule, and the Moreau envelope to handle non-smoothness. We analyze the bias that mini-batching introduces in the barrier function and show that the feasible set of the resulting transformed problem is contained within the original one. We compare SPBM with CML baselines across multiple fairness and physics informed neural networks experiments. We find that SPBM is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. We also observe, on our fairness-based computational benchmark, that the per-epoch runtime of CML methods is largely independent of the number of constraints, and within $1.3\times$ of the per-epoch runtime of regularized Adam, for a number of constraints ranging from $90$ to $9900$.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have shown remarkable ability in aligning visual and textual representations, enabling a wide range of multimodal applications. However, their large-scale training data inevitably raises concerns about privacy, copyright, and undesirable content, creating a strong need for machine unlearning. While existing studies mainly focus on single-shot unlearning, practical VLM deployment often involves sequential removal requests over time, giving rise to continual machine unlearning. In this work, we make the first attempt to study continual unlearning for VLMs and identify three key challenges in this setting: effectiveness in removing target knowledge, fidelity in preserving retained model utility, and persistence in preventing knowledge re-emergence under sequential updates. To address these challenges, we propose CATA, a conflict-averse task arithmetic method that represents each forget request as an unlearning task vector. By maintaining historical task vectors and performing sign-aware conflict-averse aggregation, CATA suppresses conflicting update components that may weaken previous forgetting effects. Extensive experiments under both single-shot and continual settings show that CATA outperforms baselines in terms of forgetting effectiveness, model fidelity, and forgetting persistence.

Accelerating stochastic gradient methods with classical momentum schemes, such as Polyak's heavy ball, has proven highly successful in training large-scale machine learning models, particularly when combined with the hardware acceleration of large mini-batch computations. Yet, the effect of classical momentum on stochastic mini-batch optimization has been poorly understood theoretically, with prior works requiring strong noise assumptions and extremely large mini-batches. In this work, we develop a general theory of stochastic momentum acceleration for optimizing over quadratics in the interpolation regime, a popular abstraction for studying deep learning dynamics which also includes classical methods such as randomized Kaczmarz and coordinate descent. Our framework encompasses both heavy ball and Nesterov-style momentum, allows for arbitrary mini-batch sizes, and makes minimal assumptions on the stochastic noise. In particular, we show that acceleration from classical momentum is directly proportional to the gradient mini-batch size (up to a natural saturation point), thereby enabling perfect parallelization of mini-batch computations. Our theory also provides a simple choice for the momentum parameter, which is shown to be effective empirically.

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly $10{,}000\times$ less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an $18\times$ compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Neural operators are often tested on states that differ physically from training data. A distinct failure occurs when the physical dynamics are unchanged but the observed coordinate frame differs from training. PACE-FNO addresses this case by estimating the frame, predicting after pulling the field to a canonical representative, and restoring the requested terminal frame. The default inference path uses one forward prediction; optional test-time adaptation (TTA) updates only the low-dimensional coordinate. On translated and Galilean-shifted Burgers and shallow-water systems, PACE-FNO lowers out-of-distribution (OOD) relative error by up to $12\times$ relative to a data-augmented Fourier Neural Operator (FNO+Aug). A matched-estimator control supports attributing the gain to prediction in the canonical frame rather than added estimator capacity. Our analysis separates the canonical approximation error from the two alignment residuals. We also test regional WeatherBench2 time-series forecasting with the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) under natural time OOD, where PACE-FNO and FNO achieve nearly identical performance. Experiments with approximate rotation, other backbones, irregular domains, rollouts, and image data delineate the conditions under which the mechanism is effective.

We address the fundamental question of why deep neural networks generalize by establishing a pointwise generalization theory for fully connected networks. This framework resolves long-standing barriers to characterizing the rich nonlinear feature-learning regime and builds a new statistical foundation for representation learning. For each trained model, we characterize the hypothesis via a pointwise Riemannian Dimension, derived from the eigenvalues of the learned feature representations across layers. This establishes a principled framework for deriving hypothesis-dependent, representation-aware generalization bounds. These bounds offer a systematic upgrade over approaches based on model size, products of norms, and infinite-width linearizations, yielding guarantees that are orders of magnitude tighter in both theory and experiment. Analytically, we identify the structural properties and mathematical principles that explain the tractability of deep networks. Empirically, the pointwise Riemannian Dimension exhibits substantial feature compression, decreases with increased over-parameterization, and captures the implicit bias of optimizers. Taken together, our results indicate that deep networks are mathematically tractable in practical regimes and that their generalization is sharply explained by pointwise, feature-spectrum-aware complexity.

Rubric-based reward shaping provides interpretable and editable reward signals for fine-tuning LLMs via reinforcement learning (RL), but existing adaptive rubric methods typically update criteria from local evidence such as the current batch or instance-level comparisons. This local view discards diagnostic information produced during training, making it difficult to track recurring failures, evaluate previous rubric edits, or raise standards once earlier criteria become saturated. We introduce AMARIS, A Memory-Augmented Rubric Improvement System that grounds rubric updates in longitudinal training evidence. AMARIS stores rollout analyses, step-level summaries, and rubric update records in a persistent evaluation memory, then retrieves recent and semantically relevant history to revise rubrics. We evaluate AMARIS across science, medicine, instruction following, and creative writing under both global and instance-specific rubric settings. AMARIS improves over static, local-adaptive, and memory-ablated baselines, such as +2.8 points on GPQA-Diamond and +2.2 points on IFBench over the strongest baselines, while analysis shows that memory reduces oscillatory rubric edits and supports a progression from early failure correction to later curriculum advancement. AMARIS runs asynchronously alongside the normal RL loop, reducing blocking latency relative to synchronous rubric updates.

Natural policy gradients improve optimization by accounting for the geometry of distribution space, but their practical use is limited by the cost of estimating and inverting the Fisher matrix. We present Randomized Advantage Transformation (RAT), a method for estimating Tikhonov-regularized natural policy gradients via direct backpropagation. By applying the Woodbury formula, we reformulate the regularized natural policy gradients as vanilla policy gradients with a transformed advantage. RAT computes this transformation efficiently via randomized block Kaczmarz iterations on on-policy mini-batches, avoiding explicit Fisher construction, conjugate-gradient solvers, and architecture-specific approximations. We provide convergence guarantees for RAT and demonstrate empirically that it matches or exceeds established natural-gradient methods across continuous and visual control benchmarks, while remaining simple to implement and compatible with various architectures.

Single-cell trajectory inference from destructive time-course snapshots is fundamentally ill-posed: neither cross-time cell correspondences nor continuous trajectories are observed, so the snapshot distributions alone do not uniquely determine the underlying dynamics. Existing optimal transport and flow-based methods typically couple cells by Euclidean proximity at observed clock times, which can misalign trajectories when development is asynchronous and cells sampled at the same experimental time occupy different latent pseudotime stages. We propose PACE, a trajectory inference framework that recovers geometry-consistent continuous transport dynamics from destructive time-course snapshots through three coupled components. First, PACE constructs a state- and time-dependent anisotropic Riemannian metric that assigns low transport cost along locally supported tangent directions while penalizing normal velocity components. Second, it alternates between refining cross-time couplings under the induced path-action cost and fitting endpoint-preserving neural bridges between adjacent snapshots. Third, it distills the learned bridge dynamics into a global continuous-time velocity field over cellular states. Across seven controlled and biological datasets covering nine held-out reconstruction experiments, PACE achieves the strongest overall reconstruction performance, reducing MMD, Wasserstein-1 distance, and Wasserstein-2 distance by 23.7% on average relative to the strongest competing baseline. PACE also improves RNA-velocity alignment by 15.4% on an embryoid body differentiation benchmark, without requiring explicit cell pairing, lineage tracing, or RNA-velocity supervision during training. Code is available at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/PACE.

Outcome-only evaluation can certify economically unsafe agents: a policy can hit a business KPI while violating deployable behavioral discipline. In hotel pricing with hidden competitor state, a learner can achieve plausible revenue per available room while failing to preserve the rate discipline of a rule-based revenue-management competitor. We introduce discipline stability, a trace-based evaluation paradigm: define the benchmark behavior, restrict observations to the deployment regime, induce trace diagnostics from failure, separate mechanisms with ablations, and test transfer and deployment. Across a two-hotel benchmark and a compact hidden-budget bidding task, reward-only PPO variants miss trace alignment; revealing hidden state reduces label uncertainty; deterministic copy collapses uncertainty; and trace-prior or corrected history policies better preserve price or bid distributions. Pure behavior cloning is nearly enough for symmetric imitation, while Trace-Prior RL adds bounded adaptation under capacity asymmetry. The contribution is an evaluation and benchmark paradigm, not a new optimizer or a universal claim about MARL

Pre-training on text-attributed graphs (TAGs) is central to building transferable graph foundation models, where LLM-as-Aligner methods align graph and text representations through the semantic knowledge of large language models. However, these methods usually assume that node texts provide sufficient and reliable supervision, an assumption often violated in real-world sparse TAGs. When textual anchors are missing, noisy, or uneven across domains, graph structures must be aligned with weak semantic evidence, leading to unreliable structure-semantics correspondence and sparsity-induced transfer bias. This paper presents S2Aligner, a sparsity-aware and structure-enhanced LLM-as-Aligner framework for graph-text pre-training on sparse TAGs. The key idea is to decouple semantic alignment from structural modeling, allowing topology-aware signals to enhance alignment without contaminating the shared semantic space. Specifically, S2Aligner decomposes graph-text representations into semantic and structural components, uses structure-oriented reconstruction with consistency control to inject reliable topology cues into text representations, and suppresses inconsistent structural signals under textual sparsity. Moreover, S2Aligner introduces sparsity-aware cross-domain risk balancing, which calibrates domain risks through a global-domain density ratio and downweights unreliable sparse samples via graph reliability estimation. Theoretical analysis shows that this objective reduces cross-domain generalization gaps by controlling domain risk discrepancy. Extensive experiments across diverse graph domains, sparsity levels, and downstream tasks demonstrate that S2Aligner consistently outperforms existing baselines.

A critical challenge in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) integration is resolving the tension between eliminating batch effects and maintaining biological fidelity. While recent evidence indicates that batch effects manifest heterogeneously across genes, most existing methods process the transcriptome uniformly, frequently resulting in over-correction and loss of subtle biological signals. To address this, we present scHelix, a dataset-adaptive framework that fundamentally changes how features are processed by explicitly partitioning genes into domain-invariant Anchors and domain-sensitive Variants at the input level. scHelix utilizes a dual-stream sparse diffusion encoder equipped with stop-gradient graph caching to efficiently learn multi-scale structural representations. The core of our approach is a novel asymmetric Align-Refine-Fuse protocol: the unstable Variant stream is first aligned to the robust topology of the Anchor stream, followed by a conservative refinement phase where the Anchor stream absorbs denoised details via bounded residual gating. This divide-and-conquer architecture prevents shortcut learning and ensures robust batch removal without compromising the integrity of biological clusters. Extensive benchmarking demonstrates that scHelix outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Structural equation modeling is widely used in IS research. However, inconsistent construct definitions impede the cumulative development of knowledge. In this work, we present an approach that aims at the integration of structural equation models into a unified model: We use a combination of task-adapted text embeddings and clustering to produce a candidate set of construct groupings. Subsequently, we select the optimal solution using a loss function that explicitly trades off semantic purity and parsimony in the number of clusters. By making this trade-off explicit, our approach allows to analyze how construct groupings and their relations change as one shifts the priority from purity to parsimony. Empirically, we evaluate and explore the proposed methodology on two datasets from the IS domain.

Accurate estimates of item difficulty are essential for valid assessment and effective adaptive learning. However, for newly created tasks, response data are typically unavailable. Pretesting and expert judgement can be costly and slow, while machine learning methods often require large labelled training datasets. Recent work suggests that large language models (LLMs) may help. However, there is limited evidence on the elicitation procedures and prompt configurations used to emulate experts for difficulty estimation. This study addresses this gap by evaluating three off-the-shelf LLMs as difficulty raters for newly created items without access to response data. Using an item bank from an online learning system, the study examined 6 domains of primary-school mathematics, with empirical difficulty estimates treated as empirical reference. The study used a full factorial design crossing three factors: judgement format (absolute vs pairwise), decision type (hard decisions vs token-probability-based estimates), and prompting strategy (zero-shot vs few-shot). LLM-derived difficulty estimates were compared with empirical difficulties using Spearman rank correlations. Across domains, LLM-based estimates exhibited moderate to strong positive correlations with empirical item difficulties. For simpler arithmetic tasks, some configurations approached the upper end of the accuracy range reported for human experts in previous research. Pairwise comparison consistently outperformed absolute judgement in the absence of additional refinements. However, when token-level probabilities were incorporated and examples of items with known empirical difficulty were provided, the absolute judgement configuration likewise demonstrated moderate-to-high alignment. The study positions LLMs as a promising tool for initial item calibration and offers insights into effective workflow configuration.

The brain learns abstract representations of high-dimensional sensory input, but the plasticity rules that enable such learning are unknown. We study biologically plausible algorithms on the Random Hierarchy Model (RHM), an artificial dataset designed to investigate how deep neural networks learn the intrinsic hierarchical structure of high-dimensional data. We focus on two types of local learning rules that avoid both a long convergence time and the use of a symmetric error network. The first type uses direct feedback signals to approximate error propagation from the output layer. The second type uses layerwise self-supervised contrastive or non-contrastive loss functions that do not explicitly approximate errors at the output layer. We show that all rules of the first type fail to solve the tasks of the RHM and trace this failure back to input-specific nonlinearities (`masking') that are implemented in full backpropagation and are essential for learning complex tasks. However, algorithms of the second type are able to learn the hierarchical hidden structure of the RHM tasks and are as data-efficient as supervised backpropagation training, while being compatible with known rules of synaptic plasticity in cortex.

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters, which is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of this prior can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces the prior–likelihood pair with a predictive distribution and recovers parameter uncertainty by repeatedly drawing predictive samples and refitting the model. This letter proposes {federated martingale posterior} (FMP) sampling, a one-shot embarrassingly parallel protocol in which each client uploads a small set of trainable data embeddings and the server runs the predictive sampler centrally. Analysis of the sampling error demonstrates the impact of the dataset compression rate, while experiments show that FMP closely matches the centralized counterpart and achieves the lowest mean expected calibration error (ECE) among the evaluated one-shot federated methods.

Classifying protein topology is essential for deciphering biological function, but progress is held back by the lack of large-scale benchmarks that avoid duplicates and by models that do not scale well. We introduce TEDBench, a large-scale, non-redundant benchmark for protein fold classification constructed from the Encyclopedia of Domains (TED) and Foldseek-clustered AlphaFold structures. We show that on TEDBench, current protein representation learning methods either require very large models or fail to deliver strong performance. To address this challenge, we propose Masked Invariant Autoencoders (MiAE), a self-supervised framework for protein structure representation learning. MiAE uses an extremely high masking ratio of up to 90% with an $\mathrm{SE(3)}$-invariant encoder and a lightweight decoder that reconstructs backbone coordinates from the latent representation and mask tokens. MiAE scales well and outperforms supervised counterparts and state-of-the-art baselines on TEDBench, establishing a strong recipe for protein fold classification. To test transfer beyond AlphaFold structures, we further benchmark on a curated dataset from experimental structures of CATH v4.4. TEDBench is available at https://github.com/BorgwardtLab/TEDBench.

This paper introduces the Manifold Probe, a supervised method for discovering representation manifolds in superposition. The method generalizes linear regression probes by learning the space of features of a concept that can be linearly predicted from the representations, and then learning the directions used to encode them. We demonstrate the probe on representations of time and space in Llama 2-7b, finding manifolds which linearly represent an interpretable set of features in each case. In the case of time, we show that by steering along the manifold, we can influence the model's completions about the years in which famous songs, movies and books were released, providing evidence that the Manifold Probe can discover manifolds which are causally involved in model behaviour.

The bottleneck of useful agentic intelligence has shifted from compressing world knowledge into a single model to executing a coordinated system. This position paper argues that personal-agent architecture must move to the edge because the core properties of agentic intelligence tasks, particularly their structural coupling with high-fidelity local context and the need for zero-latency execution loops, do not sit well with cloud-centric designs. We develop this claim through three structural shifts. First, the Prefrontal Turn: the main marginal lever of capability has moved from pre-training scale to framework-level executive control. Such control must remain physically close to the environment of action if the agent is to preserve cognitive alignment. Second, the Data-Geography Paradox, the “dark matter” of agentic data (local file hierarchies, real-time sensor streams, and transient OS states) degrades, disappears, or loses meaning once prepared for cloud transmission, thereby cutting the agent off from ground-truth context. Third, the interaction-alignment loop, the only economically and ecologically sustainable source of agentic refinement data is the high-fidelity implicit preference signal produced through real-time local interaction. Third, the interaction-alignment loop, the only economically and ecologically sustainable source of agentic refinement data is the high-fidelity implicit preference signal produced through real-time local interaction. We conclude with falsifiable predictions for the next deployment cycle of personal agents.

Multivariate time-series analysis involves extracting informative representations from sequences of multiple interdependent variables, supporting tasks such as forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection. In real-world scenarios, these variables are typically collected from a shared context or underlying phenomenon, suggesting the presence of latent dependencies across time and channels that can be leveraged to improve performance. However, recent findings show that channel-independent (CI) models, which assume no inter-variable dependencies, often outperform channel-dependent (CD) models that explicitly model such relationships. This surprising result indicates that current CD models may not fully exploit their potential due to limitations in how dependencies are captured. Recent studies have revisited channel dependence modeling with various approaches; however, these methods often employ indirect modeling strategies, which can lead to meaningful dependencies being overlooked. To address this issue, we introduce XCTFormer, a transformer-based channel-dependent (CD) model that explicitly captures cross-temporal and cross-channel dependencies via an enhanced attention mechanism. The model operates in a token-to-token fashion, modeling pairwise dependencies between every pair of tokens across time and channels. The architecture comprises (i) a data processing module, (ii) a novel Cross-Relational Attention Block (CRAB) that increases capacity and expressiveness, and (iii) an optional Dependency Compression Plugin (DeCoP) that improves scalability. Through extensive experiments on three time-series benchmarks, we show that XCTFormer achieves strong results compared to widely recognized baselines; in particular, it attains state-of-the-art performance on the imputation task, outperforming the second-best method by an average of 20.8% in MSE and 15.3% in MAE.